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Episode 1050: "Why Harry Potter CE Will Hit $20,000 Easily"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 12s·analyzed·Feb 7, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Potter CE hits $20K secondary market on theme strength and FOMO despite JJP execution concerns.

Summary

Kaneda argues that the Harry Potter Collector's Edition pinball machine will reach $20,000 on the secondary market within its first month due to theme appeal, IP strength, years of mediocre competitor releases, collector FOMO, and broad mainstream appeal across demographics. He expresses confidence in secondary market appreciation despite skepticism about Jersey Jack's execution and game design quality, drawing comparisons to Avatar and Metallica Remastered LE sales patterns.

Key Claims

  • Harry Potter Collector's Edition will sell out instantly at $15,000 MSRP

    medium confidence · Kaneda, primary speaker; based on speculation about demand patterns, not confirmed information

  • Secondary market will immediately price Potter CEs at $19,999+ with $5,000 profit margins

    medium confidence · Kaneda; prediction based on historical Metallica LE and Avatar CE sales patterns

  • Jersey Jack will sell approximately 1,000 Potter Collector's Editions

    low confidence · Kaneda; speculative estimate not grounded in official production numbers

  • J.K. Rowling previously did not want Harry Potter in pinball/arcades

    low confidence · Kaneda, citing unverified 'word on the street' rumor

  • Harry Potter movie franchise has grossed over $8 billion at the box office

    high confidence · Kaneda; widely verifiable industry fact

  • Jersey Jack has never exceeded expectations on any game except Guns N' Roses and Elton John

    low confidence · Kaneda; subjective opinion framed as factual assessment

  • Jersey Jack sent a cease-and-desist to a homebrew Harry Potter wide-body game creator

    low confidence · Kaneda; alleges C&D without providing documentation or sourcing

  • Avatar CEs sold more units than Avatar Premium models at $12,000

    medium confidence · Kaneda; specific but unverified claim about Jersey Jack Avatar sales distribution

Notable Quotes

  • “I think the secondhand value because it's Harry freaking Potter. The moment you've got a Hogwarts castle under glass... if you got your hands on a CE, you just made $5,000.”

    Kaneda@ 15:24 — Core thesis of entire episode; expresses extreme confidence in secondary market appreciation

  • “Jersey Jack Pinball is the highest priced pinball company in all the pinball right now, but they've made it where the $15,000 CE is really the only version of their game you want to get.”

    Kaneda@ 5:12 — Critiques JJP's pricing strategy and product differentiation between editions

  • “I don't even know if 20 is the ceiling. A thousand is a lot though, right? This isn't like only 500. Metallica only had 500.”

    Kaneda@ 14:38 — Distinguishes Potter's advantage via higher production numbers vs. Metallica LE scarcity

  • “The moment you hear it [Harry Potter theme], choo-ching people, if you got your hands on a CE, you just made $5,000.”

    Kaneda@ 15:45 — Summarizes confidence thesis in colloquial terms

  • “I don't even think it matters [if the game is great]. I really don't think it matters... it doesn matter It Harry Potter.”

    Kaneda@ 15:19 — Key concession: secondary market value decoupled from game quality due to theme IP strength

  • “Harry Potter is also a theme where your wives and your kids are really going to want one. Do you think your kids and wives really want Metallica? Do they really want John Wick?”

    Kaneda@ 9:11 — Identifies Potter's broader demographic appeal vs. typical pinball collector themes

  • “My big worry is that Jersey Jack will do what Jersey Jack does best. They always find a way to mess it up, right? They've never done the other thing and like exceeded our expectations.”

Entities

KanedapersonEric MenearpersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyHarry PottergameJ.K. RowlingpersonAvatargameMetallica Remastered LE

Signals

  • ?

    collector_signal: Kaneda predicts Potter CE secondary market entry prices of $19,999+ within first month, with $5,000 profit margins on MSRP of $15,000. Claims instant sellout and compares favorably to Metallica LE secondary performance.

    medium · Multiple statements about $20K ceiling being 'easily' hit and $5K profit guarantees; comparison to Metallica LE which had 500 units

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Kaneda explicitly argues that Potter's secondary market value is independent of game design quality. Expresses this as novel realization: 'I don't even think it matters... it doesn matter It Harry Potter.' Signals fundamental shift in how FOMO/theme IP now dominates pricing over gameplay merit.

    high · Direct statement: 'I don't even think it matters if the game is great' followed by emphasis on theme strength and secondary value

  • $

    market_signal: Kaneda observes that Jersey Jack buyers now opt for $15K CE over $12K Premium editions due to better aesthetics/toppers/differentiation. Avatar case study shows CEs outselling Premium models despite higher price.

    medium · Avatar example: 'They've sold more Avatar CEs at 15,000 than they've sold of Avatar Ellie's at $12,000... you don't wanna spend 12 grand'

  • ?

    product_concern: Kaneda expresses systematic skepticism about Jersey Jack's execution. Claims JJP has never exceeded expectations except on GNR and Elton John. Worries Potter will have muted audio clips and insufficient mechanical/magical features.

    high · Repeated statements: 'Jersey Jack will do what Jersey Jack does best. They always find a way to mess it up.' Lists failed/mediocre titles: Willy Wonka, Hobbit, Toy Story, Godfather

  • ?

Topics

Secondary Market Pricing & FOMO DynamicsprimaryHarry Potter CE Collector's Edition DemandprimaryJersey Jack Pinball Design Quality & ExecutionprimaryTheme IP Strength & Mainstream AppealprimaryHistorical Game Quality vs. Recent Mediocre ReleasessecondaryPricing Strategy & Product Differentiation (Pro/Premium/CE tiers)secondaryCompetitor Game Failures (X-Men, Dungeons & Dragons, Ghostbusters)secondaryHomebrew/Fan Game Development & IP Enforcementmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.65)— Kaneda is extremely bullish on Potter's secondary market value and collector appeal, but expresses deep skepticism about game design quality and Jersey Jack's execution capability. He separates theme/IP strength from actual gameplay merit and is confident the former will drive prices regardless of the latter. Tone is passionate, confident, and somewhat combative toward skeptics.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.052

0:00
Beyond Order, I talked a fair bit about Harry Potter, and a lot of the people who like to take pot shots at me took pot shots at that, because, you know, I don't know, they think Harry Potter's beneath their notice or something. But, you know, I kind of noticed that J.K. Rowling made several billion dollars building the biggest entertainment enterprise of the decade, and rose herself from, you know, single mother status, unemployed single mother status, to richer than the Queen, and then occupied every movie screen for like 10 years. Maybe something's going on there. Sweet dreams of rhythm and dancing. Sweet dreams of passion through the night. Sweet dreams are taking over. Sweet dreams of dancing through the night.
0:43
I'm a sinner, sinner, sinner, sinner, sinner, sinner
1:13
that. I'm not here to talk about you X-Men owners. You're never getting a great game. It's never happening. Let it go. Sell the game. Stern has moved on. Jack has moved on to his next game. King Kong is where all the effort is going to go. I'm here to talk to you about Harry freaking Potter and why I think Harry Potter on month one of this game coming out is going to sink,
1:47
not down. It's going to soar like a quidditch match all the way to $20,000 easily. If you get yourself a collector's edition at $15,000, this game is a going to sell out instantly. B, it's going to be impossible to get one unless you go over that 15K. And why I think that $20,000 is going to be put on the table all day long.
2:21

Kaneda@ 9:59 — Expresses core skepticism about game design quality despite bullish secondary market prediction

  • “The fact that they're sending a cease and desist to that kid that's making that homebrew game. To me, that's everything... I think they're nervous that that kid is going to show everybody what's possible.”

    Kaneda@ 12:03 — Alleges JJP legal action and interprets it as sign of insecurity about game design

    • game
    Guns N' Rosesgame
    Elton Johngame
    Ghostbustersgame
    Star Warsgame
    Jurassic Parkgame
    X-Mengame
    Dungeons and Dragonsgame
    King Konggame
    John Wickgame
    Venomgame
    Jawsgame
    Willy Wonkagame
    The Hobbitgame
    Toy Storygame
    The Godfathergame

    rumor_hype: Kaneda repeats unverified claim that 'J.K. Rowling did not want Harry Potter in CD bars. That was the word on the street.' Frames this as context for why game's existence is surprising/valuable.

    low · Attribution to 'word on the street' without sourcing; speculative framing

  • ?

    community_signal: Kaneda identifies Potter as unique among recent pinball themes for broad mainstream/family appeal. Explicitly contrasts with Metallica, John Wick, Venom, Jaws as themes lacking wife/kid appeal.

    high · Direct comparison: 'Do you think your kids and wives really want Metallica? Do they really want John Wick?... No, but they're really, really, really going to want Harry Potter'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Kaneda argues pinball industry has been 'beaten down with mediocre themes left and right' over past 3-4 years, destroying secondary market values on LEs/CEs. Frames Potter as breakthrough release breaking this cycle.

    medium · Statements about X-Men losing $4K, Dungeons & Dragons failing, general secondary value destruction; identifies Potter as 'biggest theme since Star Wars'

  • ?

    regulatory_signal: Kaneda alleges Jersey Jack sent cease-and-desist to homebrew Harry Potter wide-body game creator. Interprets this as sign of JJP insecurity about their own game design. Encourages developer to continue (claims it's legal).

    low · Unverified allegation: 'They're sending a cease and desist to that kid that's making that homebrew game... I think they're nervous'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Kaneda notes King Kong (next JJP release) is 'not out yet,' giving Potter a window of exclusivity where it will capture collector attention and spending before next major release competes.

    high · Statement: 'King Kong is not out yet. So they're going to have a window in which nothing is really going to steal away the money'

  • ?

    product_launch: Kaneda speculates Jersey Jack will produce ~1,000 Potter CEs, significantly higher than Metallica LE's 500 units. Uses higher volume to explain why $20K is achievable despite more units in circulation.

    low · Estimates: 'I think the CEs, they will sell a thousand of them at 15,000 a pop... A thousand is a lot though, right? This isn't like only 500. Metallica only had 500'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Kaneda characterizes Eric Menear as having 'a little bit of an ego' and lacking ability to inject 'soul and heart' into games. Credits GNR's success to band/music IP rather than design. Frames Potter as Menear's 'ultimate test' to prove otherwise.

    medium · Statements: 'I know he's a little bit smug. I know he's got a little bit of an ego... It's not really because of him. It's the music and the light shows'

    • And you heard it in the intro to this show. For those of you out there, here is my rationale for why Potter's going to get to 20K. And look, I'm going to give you my rationale. And this doesn't mean the game is going to be great. It doesn't mean Eric Minier is finally going to dial some soul and heart into a game, which I'm not sure he can do. I know he's a little bit smug. I know he's got a little bit of an ego. But if there's one thing Eric hasn't done is made a game that has soul and you can feel
    2:54
    the passion. GNR, yeah, kind of there. It is there. But it's not really because of him. It's the music and the light shows in that game that give it soul. What gives GNR soul is Axel and Slash, not Eric Minier. So this is going to be his ultimate test. Is he going to be able to deliver? But that doesn't even matter when it comes to what will the secondhand value of this game be. So look, you got Harry Potter. You've got this theme that for the longest time, everyone thought they would never make
    3:27
    a Harry Potter game. J.K. Rowling did not want Harry Potter in CD bars. That was the word on the street. She has sold 600 million books. The movie franchise has made over, I think, $8 billion at the box office. There is an entire generation of people who grew up with Harry Potter as their Star Wars. I feel like anybody born in the 80s, Harry Potter is their Star Wars.
    4:02
    It is a theme that crosses over. It's not just old men. It is much more mainstream. It had a Broadway show that is hugely popular It is also when you think about it it the perfect theme for pinball So many good pinball games the theme about magic and spells and flying through the air and the use of magnets and disappearing balls and misdirecting shots because something magical
    4:36
    is happening, Harry Potter as a theme opens up the door for so much pinball magic. So all that is working in its favor, if you will. Now, $15,000 is a boatload of money. A lot of you are like, Kaneda, you're stupid. The prices are too high. There's no way it's going to go up from there. But here's the thing, everybody. We've all now become very desensitized to the high prices in pinball. It's everywhere, right? It's stupid. I don't agree with it. It just has become what it is.
    5:12
    And so here's the thing is Jersey Jack Pinball is the highest priced pinball company in all the pinball right now, but they've made it where the $15,000 CE is really the only version of their game you want to get. If you look at Avatar, it's 15K. They've sold more Avatar CEs at 15,000 than they've sold of Avatar Ellie's at $12,000. It's because if you've got 12, you've got 15,
    5:43
    they also make the $15,000 CE so much nicer with an awesome topper, the armor, the shooter rod, everything about it, right? You don't wanna spend 12 grand. Think about that. Who wants to spend 12 grand and have the bottom of the line version of the game? And even though Avatar, right, It is a movie that is soulless. It's a franchise that I don't think anybody really cares about. I don't think people collect Avatar stuff. Nobody has Avatar tattoos or wears Avatar t-shirts.
    6:17
    Avatar to me is a little bit like John Wick. Like it's done really well at the box office, but it's not something you really collect or something you want to own the way Harry Potter is. And even though Avatar has no toys in it and no real magic, they've still sold a decent amount of those collector's editions. But the reason why I think Harry Potter is going to take off, unlike any other pin, I think it's going to take off more than Metallica Remastered LE. The reason why is this.
    6:47
    In pinball over the last three to four years, we've been beaten down with mediocre themes left and right. We've been beaten down with high prices. if you've bought pins over the last three to four years you've been absolutely destroyed on the secondhand value of all of your games the argument about is the game fun or not is now irrelevant because yeah every pin is somewhat fun but it's a lot more fun to buy the game after it's lost
    7:18
    like the three to four to five to six thousand dollars that all these le's and ce's are losing So you've got three to four years of mediocre games. Everything is losing value. And everyone is sort of waiting on the sidelines now. I think there has to be a significant decrease in the amount of people that are running towards every new in-box game. And then you come out with something like Harry Potter. It is the biggest theme to come out in pinball since Star Wars, right?
    7:49
    And Star Wars was a crappy game. if you think about it what was the last triple a theme pinball machine that was actually great i mean think about that for a minute what triple a theme game that came out over the last like five six seven years was actually great like nothing ghostbusters a huge theme the game is terrible the game shoots so bad like it's not a good game you're holding on for dear life it's not that much
    8:21
    fun. Star Wars was terrible. Maybe Jurassic Park, you could argue, was the best major theme that come out But even Jurassic Park it got no freaking assets The fact that we accepted Stern Pinball cheaping out on Jurassic Park and not putting the iconic movie into the game unacceptable That's not what Jurassic Park fans want. They don't want just some generic arcade, like 16-bit looking graphics,
    8:52
    you know, rolling through the park like that. I want to see the damn dinos. You don't even see the damn CGI dinos in the damn game. That's not what people want. So we've got Harry Potter, the biggest theme maybe ever for pinball. Harry Potter is also a theme where your wives and your kids are really going to want one. Do you think your kids and wives really want Metallica? Do they really want John Wick?
    9:23
    Do they really want Venom? Do they really want Jaws? No, but they're really, really, really going to want Harry Potter. And when you think about that, all these pinheads, all these millionaires, all their $200,000 pin collections, you think they're not going to do whatever it takes to get a Harry Potter CE? Of course they are. Now, the other question is this. Do I think it's going to be a good game? Do I think Eric Menier is going to deliver finally? Is it going to have muted clips?
    9:55
    Is it going to be empty? Is it going to be devoid of magical mechs and toys? My big worry is that Jersey Jack will do what Jersey Jack does best. They always find a way to mess it up, right? They've never done the other thing, right? They've never done the other thing and like exceeded our expectations. They didn't exceed our expectations on Willy Wonka. They didn't do it on Hobbit. They didn't do it on Toy Story. They didn't do it on Godfather. They didn't do it on anything. There's been zero games where they exceeded our expectations, except for maybe Guns N' Roses and Elton John.
    10:29
    And the reason why Guns N' Roses exceeded our expectations is it was just awesome. It was, you got to remember, like GNR was the first time we'd ever seen an experiential moment like that in a pinball machine. All those lights, the hot rails, the way they made the game where you're playing a concert in a box, that had never been done before. And that was a really smart decision. And then Elton John, we had no expectations, right? Nobody wanted Elton John. So when Elton John came out and it shot so damn fun, and even though it didn't have many
    11:00
    toys and it had cheap cake toppers twirling around tiny dancers, it didn't matter. It just felt like a stern gameplay put into a JJP platform. And that's why Elton John is fun. And the code is simple. And you know how to play the game and you're not confused and you're not choosing between 35,000 different patches, you can just play the game and understand what does what. But it's still not a very creative game. I mean, those three targets up the middle that don't do anything.
    11:31
    Come on, gang. It's like these are $15,000 games. So Jersey Jack Pinball has a golden opportunity. Eric Minier has a golden opportunity to finally nail it, to finally create the masterpiece. Look, Eric confirms that this is his dream theme. He grew up loving Harry Potter. So is he going to make it magical? My worry is this. It's going to have muted clips. My worry is it's not going to have nearly as many mechanical magical mechs as it should have.
    12:03
    The fact that they're sending a cease and desist to that kid that's making that homebrew game. To me, that's everything. because I think they're nervous that that kid is going to show everybody what's possible if you make a wide body Harry Potter game and then Jersey Jack wants to go and shut that kid down. That's ridiculous. That is absolutely ridiculous. It makes me feel like they're insecure about what they've got and they don't want people to see that game. The good news for that kid is keep going.
    12:35
    nothing you're doing is illegal you can make a one-on-one game like you're doing and there's nothing the movie studio can do there's nothing that Jersey Jack can do show the world what possible but even though I worried that Jersey Jack is going to do what they do best which is find a way to mess it up it doesn matter It Harry Potter And because of all the lackluster themes, the Dungeons and Dragons catching on fire, the X-Men LEs losing $4,000 in value because the
    13:09
    design has issues, the code is terrible, all of this is going to play to the favor of Harry Potter. And also what's going to play to the favor of Harry Potter is King Kong is not out yet. So they're going to have a window in which nothing is really going to steal away the money or the imagination or the room in your game room like Harry Potter is going to steal. When Potter drops, you're going to see so many of the older Jersey Jack games that are sitting in people's collections.
    13:43
    you're going to see those go up for sale. People are going to make room for Potter. And again, I think the CEs, they will sell a thousand of them at 15,000 a pop. They will sell out instantly and then instantly on the secondhand market where the initial offerings will be, will be $19,999. and $99, people will make $5,000 profit if you get your hands on a Harry Potter CE.
    14:16
    Trust me, people made $5,000 on freaking Metallica. This thing is going to have way more energy behind it, way more demand than Metallica LE. And so when it happens, totally expect it to go through the roof. And look, I don't even know if 20 is the ceiling. I do know this. A thousand is a lot though, right? This isn't like only 500. Metallica only had 500. But I am telling you right now, I will take a week off from podcasting if when Harry Potter
    14:50
    comes out in the first month, we don't see an instant sellout and we don't see games on the secondhand market for $20,000 and people are going to get it. That is the thing, people. They're going to get it. everybody, happy Friday. What do you think? Do you think it's going to do it? Do you think it's going to be a hit game? Look, I still don't think the game is going to be great. I want Eric to prove me wrong, but I just think Jersey Jack is going to find a way to mess this game up. But other than that, I don't even think it matters. I really don't think it matters. I
    15:24
    think the secondhand value because it's Harry freaking Potter. The moment you've got a Hogwarts castle under glass. You got that logo on the cabinet and on the back box, and you've got that magic wand and the lightning bolt on his forehead, and you hear that Harry Potter theme song. The moment you hear it, and I'm about to play it right now, choo-ching people, if you got your hands on a CE, you just made $5,000. I will fight anybody
    15:58
    verbally who disagrees. Kaneda out.
    16:28
    Sweet dreams of passion through the night Sweet dreams are taking over Sweet dreams of dancing through the night Oho 올라, ola e Ola, ola e
    17:00
    Ola, ola e