Episode 728: "The Greatest Loss In Pinball History?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 10s·analyzed·Oct 1, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda blames Stern's rush-to-market James Bond strategy and calls Ultraman the worst secondary market failure in pinball.

Summary

Kaneda critiques Stern Pinball's James Bond launch strategy, arguing the game was rushed to meet 60th anniversary licensing obligations and comparing it to Batman 66's premature reveal. He also analyzes Spooky Pinball's Ultraman as suffering catastrophic secondary market depreciation ($3,000-$5,000 losses per unit) due to poor game design and theme misjudgment, calling it 'the greatest single year loss in pinball history.' The episode also defends content creator monetization via Patreon.

Key Claims

Venom was contractually obligated to be revealed by Stern to meet the James Bond 60th anniversary licensing deadline from Eon Productions
medium confidence · Kaneda's theory about Stern being 'contractually obligated by the Eon licenseholder of James Bond' to reveal the game in 2024
James Bond game was not ready for streaming at reveal and Stern deliberately withheld footage to protect pre-order sales
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I don't think Stern wants you to see this game streamed right now' and 'Stern Pinball does not want the thousand people who are now in on a James Bond LE to see a $14,500 machine'
Lyman Sheets is reusing Stranger Things code framework for James Bond, including animations and scoring displays
low confidence · Kaneda speculation: 'Lonnie is moving over some of the code framework from Stranger Things to James Bond... he might be possibly building James Bond on top of the Stranger Things framework'
Spooky Pinball doubled Ultraman production from an initial 250 units to 500 units
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'when Charlie Emery said they were gonna make five hundred Ultraman's a little birdie told me that he doubled that number that initially Ultraman was supposed to be 250'
Ultraman owners have lost $3,000-$5,000 in secondary market value per machine
high confidence · Kaneda: '500 Ultraman owners right now have all lost at least $3,000 to $4,000 to $5,000'
Ultraman and Toy Story are not ranked in the top 100 pinball machines of all time on Pinside
high confidence · Kaneda: 'There's a reason why Ultraman and Toy Story are both not even in the top 100 pinball machines of all time'
Stern revealed James Bond with Pros but will not begin building Limited Editions for 2 months after reveal, an atypical launch pattern
high confidence · Kaneda: 'we had a reveal and we're not even gonna start building the LLE's until 2 months from now' versus 'Usually when the game is revealed, the pros are on the line and then we get the LEs right away. Between reveal and two months, we usually get every single LE is built'

Notable Quotes

“I think Venom was done. I think Venom was pretty much done because remember they were going to get Venom out in April of 2022.”
Kaneda @ ~6:30 — Establishes Kaneda's theory that Venom completion was delayed not by design but by parts/backlog issues, forcing James Bond to move forward
“Here's the scary part the order banks opened up and guess what everybody did they bought it without even seeing enough to know if the Game's gonna be good or not”
Kaneda @ ~13:45 — Core criticism of pre-order culture in pinball and consumer behavior around FOMO
“Ultraman is going to go down, I think, as the greatest single year loss in the history of pinball. There hasn't been another one.”
Kaneda @ ~44:20 — Headline claim framing Ultraman as unprecedented secondary market failure
“There is no excuse to bring out a game in 2022 that shoots's like crap. There is no excuse to bring out a game in 2022 that doesn't have good flow.”
Kaneda @ ~42:00 — Establishes design accountability standard given access to historical top-100 games as reference
“I don't think there's 250 people that want Ultraman in America. I really don't. You know there's not 250 Joe Abadis out there.”
Kaneda @ ~46:15 — Indicates niche theme appeal and production miscalculation; references Joe Abadi (known Ultraman fan/collector)
“You know who doesn't feel icky about taking money? Stern Pinball. Pinball Jersey Jack pinball, CGC. These companies are taking so much money from us.”
Kaneda @ ~27:30 — Defends Patreon monetization by contrasting with manufacturer pricing practices
“If Kaneda was working over at Stern Pinball... I would have a poker tournament, al-la James Bond, al-la Casino Royale... make just for that charity event. I would make a one of one special version of George Gomez's game.”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Proposes alternative marketing/community engagement strategy for James Bond launch

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyJames Bondgame Ultramangame Venomgame Stranger ThingsgameLyman Sheetsperson

Signals

?
product_launch: James Bond revealed with Pros but Limited Edition production delayed 2 months, breaking Stern's typical pattern of simultaneous Pro/LE release within 2 months of reveal
high · Kaneda: 'we had a reveal and we're not even gonna start building the LLE's until 2 months from now... Usually when the game is revealed, the pros are on the line and then we get the LEs right away'
?
licensing_signal: James Bond reveal allegedly driven by contractual obligation to Eon Productions to hit 60th anniversary in 2024, not product readiness
medium · Kaneda theory: 'Stern had to get the backlog orders made... I think Stern looked at their release schedule and said, hey, we are contractually obligated by the Eon licenseholder of James Bond... to get these James Bond machines revealed this year because it is the 60th anniversary'
?
product_concern: James Bond code framework allegedly incomplete and reusing Stranger Things architecture; game not streaming-ready at reveal
low · Kaneda speculation: 'Lonnie is moving over some of the code framework from Stranger Things to James Bond... he might be possibly building James Bond on top of the Stranger Things framework... I think Stern is trying to buy themselves some time to get the code further along'
$
market_signal: Ultraman experiencing unprecedented secondary market value collapse of $3,000-$5,000 per unit, called 'greatest single year loss in pinball history'
high · Kaneda: 'Ultraman is going to go down, I think, as the greatest single year loss in the history of pinball... 500 Ultraman owners right now have all lost at least $3,000 to $4,000 to $5,000'
?

Topics

James Bond launch strategy and production timelineprimaryUltraman secondary market depreciation and collector value lossprimaryGame code quality and design standards at launchprimaryStern Pinball marketing and community engagement practicesprimaryContent creator monetization via PatreonsecondaryProduction planning and supply chain constraintssecondaryPre-order culture and FOMO in pinball collectingsecondaryComparison of manufacturing decisions: production volume vs. demandsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses disappointment and frustration with Stern's James Bond launch strategy, harsh criticism of Spooky's Ultraman production and design quality, and broader industry concerns about pre-order culture and pricing. However, segments on Patreon support and content creator monetization are positive/supportive in tone. Overall negative framing dominates.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.063

At MUS The end of the month. We're obviously going to lose more subscribers when the bill arrives and also I've learned a real lesson. You know, if you ask stupid, you're going to lose some support. So we're really going to work to make sure none of that happens again. And we just get back to enjoying pinball and enjoying talking about what's happening in this hobby. So here's the thing, right? I'm looking at this James Bond launch and I'm just still so perplexed. Like if the Ellie's are going on the line now in December and it is only like October 1st, The Week in Pinball, Johnny Pneumonic, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, translite proporturing panel in backbox that is backlit during playelectronic Game of Thrones unint Here's what I think happened. I think Venom was done. I think Venom was pretty much done because remember they were going to get Venom out in April of 2022. And if they were aiming for that date, they weren't going to stop like research and development on it. I think when they paused Venom, it was pretty much done and Stern had to get the backlog orders made. Now here's what I think happened. I think Venom was supposed to be at Comic Con this year. Remember when Stern I think that they weren't caught up on their backlog. I think parts are delayed and so they couldn't bring venom to that show. And then if you think about it, what was next? It was always going to be venom, then James Bond. So then I think Stern looked at their release schedule and said, hey, we are contractually obligated by the Eon licenseholder of James Bond. That's the name of the company to get these James Bond machines revealed this year because it is the 60th anniversary of James Bond. And so I think they were contractually And a lot of people who know me, they have seen a lot of these games and they are very much obliged to release them. Isn't this feeling a lot like Batman 66, where they showed the game, it wasn't nearly complete, it wasn't ready for consumers but they had to get Batman out to hit the 50th anniversary of Batman. Now my theory is this, I think the same thing is happening with James Bond, I don't think this game is ready to be streamed, I don't think Stern wants you to see this game streamed right now. The game is $13,000. You add tax, it's $14,000. You add shipping, it's $14,500. And so Stern Pinball does not want the thousand people who are now in on a James Bond LE to see a $14,500 machine that is $14,500. Conclusion I have another theory about James Bond. I think James Bond is going to go the same way as Stranger Things. I think this game on year one is possibly not going to be where it needs to be to be considered great from a code standpoint. If you remember the work Lonnie did on Stranger Things, when Stranger Things came out, it was very underwhelming. The game is set for like nine thousand dollars new inbox all year round like they just sat there and it's because the code wasn't that far along and people are now starting to see the James Bond code a little bit right with this over-the-shoulder footage and people are starting to notice something very similar to Stranger Things Lonnie is moving over some of the code framework from Stranger Things to James Bond I mean like some of the animations or how the The Scoring Looks like some of this stuff on the screen means he might be possibly building James Bond on top of the Stranger Things framework So who knows right I mean we all still speculating about what this game is going to be at launch but I really think Stern is trying to buy themselves some time to get the code further along But here the part and I mean this and I always have felt this way Here the part that still disappoints me Why are we handing them money now before the game is ready to play I don understand like even if they showed pictures of it even if they wheeled out some prototypes to be part of these James Bond celebrations Why did the order banks open up? And here's the scary part the order banks opened up and guess what everybody did they bought it without even seeing enough to know if the Game's gonna be good or not and this is the whole thing with like pinball marketing in general is sometimes I feel like companies need to do a better job at marketing but where Stern pinball is right now and the amount of demand and people fighting for these machines it's like they don't even have to do anything they don't even have to show you a working game they don't have to show you the code is good and even if stuff you see is underwhelming there's still predominantly there's more than like 95% of people will still stay in on their le order but I'm starting to hear from some people over in Europe and other places that it's getting softer like you can go buy an The only problem is you need like $17,000 or $18,000 if you want one. I think that's just the state of pinball. And so I think that's what's happening with James Bond. And for those of us who have been following Stern Pinball over the last like few years, this is like atypical for them. Usually when the game is revealed, the pros are on the line and then we get the LEs right away. Between reveal and two months, we usually get every single LE is built right in that two month Time tr십, immaturedaya4, Flash hatter evaluating," Ну we had a reveal and we're not even gonna start building the LLE's until 2 months from now. This is going to be interesting because when does the NEXT game come out? Right when does Venom come out? When does Jack Danger's game come out? When does TRON Vault Edition come out people I still think Tron Vault is coming. Like you can either Trust Kaneda and be patient or you can go spend a lot on an old one right now. I'm a very atypical launch, a very sloppy launch and I said it in my Facebook post. I really do mean this. People, marketing isn't just about creating sales. Marketing is not just about creating demand. Part of what I think the Stern marketing division should be doing is showing more respect to some of these properties. Let me give you an example of something I would have done if Kaneda was working with the Stern marketing team. And by the way, no one's getting fired if I say fire your marketing team. But I do think the The Stern marketingteam isn't really doing much and they're not thinking creatively and it's kind of sad, right? So Pinball Expo is coming up in a few weeks in October, right? That is in Stern's backyard. Their new game is James Bond. Here's what Kaneda would do if Kaneda was working over at Stern Pinball and I will give them this idea for free. It's not even that hard to come up with creative ideas that would be awesome when you have a game like James Bond. Here's what I would do if I was Stern. I would have a special There we go. We're back here at Pimpol Expo. You're in this nice hotel. I would have a poker tournament, al-la James Bond, al-la Casino Royale. I would have a poker tournament in which you need to wear a tuxedo to enter the tournament. You have a buy-in for that poker tournament. All the money people used to buy in should go to charity. You could donate it to the Flipping the Script charity that's going on with Loser Kid Pinball Podcast and TPN. You could donate that money to Project Pinball. But imagine that you have a black tie poker party held by Stern pinball to celebrate the launch of James Bond and here's where it gets awesome. I would make just for that charity event. I would make a one of one special version of George Gomez game. You can make it a one of one gold finger, a one of one with Russia with love. You know, out of those like seven movies, you could pick one and make a one on one cabinet and you could make that the grand prize of the poker tournament. Think about how much evglass Tantthanyeрал gifted page for lace,nościconnect ood, Boo Hil, All of you collectors who have been spending and I mean this six figures on their games. They do absolutely nothing Do they do anything special at Expo at TPF anywhere? They really don't and I mean this like the yeah They set up shop and Marco sets up their booth But all they ever want to do is take your money remember when Stern had their birthday party It was their birthday party and they charged us to get in and they charged us for drinks So my point is Stern you are now so much more Him at stadium the next update King more money than you ever made before and I just think you can start to engage the community more do stuff for the collectors more do stuff for your fans more it just not there and I know you don have to do it but you should do it you know I want to talk about something someone said and I think this is a good thing I want to tell you something that makes me happy I seeing other pinball podcasters out there they starting to dip their toe into patreon and I think that a good thing I think everybody out there who works really hard on making content Monaten A five year period of time. Was I in it for the money then? No. I worked really hard and I gave more than almost anybody and I created I think the most amount of pinball podcasts in the history of pinball podcasting for free. So look, now that we're doing it this way, I just think it's a win-win for everybody. It's a win for me because I get something for all of the hard work and all the years and all the research I do every week. It's a win for you because you feel good because you're supporting the content that you're absorbing. Hey grilled Männer, unc Shoppingemojo is that when we talk down against this behavior, we talk down against setting up a monetary way to show support, we never should do that. We should all support each other in creating a win-win situation. And I want to talk about a line I saw on Pinside. Someone said, I feel really icky about taking money for something that's a hobby I love. And I want to just respond to that one line. Feeling icky about taking money for a hobby you love. You know who doesn't feel icky about taking money? Stern Pinball. Pinball JerseyJackpinball, CGC These companies are taking so much money from us. You have to make $30,000 before taxes now to buy a single pinball machine. They don't feel icky. They're not giving us the best possible price. Pinball machines never go on sale from distributors, so they don't feel icky. Why should you feel icky about getting a small compensation for all the hard work you do? And I mean this. Every single pinball content creator out there, I'm talking to each and every one of you right now, You know how many hours you put into your shows. You know it. And I tell you this, every listener of this show, every single person, they are making less than minimum wage if you added up the amount of hours it takes to create all of that content. And so I do implore everybody out there to show support to all of the shows that you listen to if you can, right? I mean, if you can. Alright, so let's go on to Spooky Pinball. So here's the other thing I want to talk about. So Spooky Pinball Ultraman. Ultraman now when Charlie Emery said they were gonna make five hundred Ultraman's a little birdie told me that he doubled that number that initially Ultraman was supposed to be 250 they were going to make now it's obvious what's happening right now there is not even close to 500 people who want an Ultraman pinball machine and it's a little bit complex when you ask why is this game's value just tanking and the reason why I mean it's tanking is this let me tell you how much I think I forget how to spell ornament frosting Molkeyte. That was pretty long. Just AFinitely. This peer review is much longer than I did to a movie. Some UnusiCast 확진 usted Lu morals made a free print of screen on my YouTube channel. I never use these types of pinballlevant newsphr Hosparedhead support my G7 tapest焯N ACNIC women card giant jack frame inici render second off in my units exisiter12 do you have any plan on how we going to make more what you need. A girl looks aanso amazing jefulgaskeha so who made it?rick Elwin which was the game player right besides Carpin dealing with the cancer myonent had together. Jaredepher, Joe Rose was doing a great job finalizing everything also with some seconds I considered for the last time. Check the comment box after you win 5............... How you wanna skin it numbers don lie You just lost in value on your 10 purchase There is nobody in pinball that wants to experience that And here where it gets even worse Imagine if you opened up your Ultraman and you don have a butter cabinet what that even worth now Right Let just say hypothetically an open butter cabinet machine is worth You just lost That almost the price of an entire pinball machine on one single spooky machine 500 Ultraman owners right now have all lost at least $3,000 to $4,000 to $5,000. 500 of them. Now, I don't think they're all sold. I think distributors are calling around trying to like sell some of these. And look, I think everybody loses with this game now. You probably lost money. If you didn't take delivery, you lost your deposit. Spooky Pinball put the money in the bank, but they lost all of their goodwill. This machine shows one thing. And this is something that I think everyone has learned. And I mean this when I say this. And I'm going to break it down in a way I've never heard anyone say this before on a show. It's a real simple question. What is Ultraman worth? And I'm going to say this right now. To the majority of people in the pinball world, it's not worth anything. The game is a game that people don't like or perceive to be bad. A bad game has absolutely, positively, almost no value to the majority of collectors. They wouldn't buy it for five grand, they wouldn't buy it for four grand, they might buy it for three grand, but you know what I mean? You don't even want it. Like why would you want a game where the theme doesn't speak to you, where the game doesn't shoot great, and where the overall consensus on it is it's not even in the top 100. Say what you will. Top 100 on Pinside. We could argue about the top 20 games but the bottom line is this. There's a reason why Ultraman and Toy Story are both not even in the top 100 pinball machines of all time. It's not a conspiracy. We're not out to take these games down. It's just the way it is. And in today's market at these prices, if you make a game that can't even break into the top like 100, that game should never ever All these games are made by people who have played them and have been made. It is an embarrassment. I do believe this. It is an embarrassment because here is why it is really embarrassing if you can't make a 2022 game to be in the top 100. You know why? Because you have had those top 100 games to study. To look at why they are great. This is why pinball always is weird to me because if anyone making a game today can go by those games everybody loves. They can study the code, study the lights, study the art, study the gameplay, study the There is no excuse to bring out a game in 2022 that shoots's like crap. There is no excuse to bring out a game in 2022 that doesn't have good flow. There is no excuse to bring out a game in 2022 that's barren with no toys, no mechs, you know, no software that's deep that has replay value. There is just no excuse anymore people. So this is the thing. Ultraman is going to go down, I think, as the greatest single year loss in the history of pinball. There hasn't been another one. WWE LE didn't lose this much value. And for those of you who own it and like it, I'm glad. I'm happy you were to see through all the insults and enjoy the machine. But there's just something about this game that's just not clicking with people. I also think it's a learning lesson for Chuck. Like if this is your tiny little niche theme that you liked, you should have only made $250. And here's why he should have only made $250. Because if there was only $250, that would have stabilized the price a little bit. You can't make the same number of Ultramans as James Bond 60th edition machines. Like I don't even think there's 250 people that want Ultraman in America. I really don't. You know there's not 250 Joe Abadis out there. Like most of us did not grow up watching Ultraman, thinking about Ultraman, and most of us sure as heck haven't been thinking about Ultraman as grown adults. And that's the thing with a lot of these like quirky themes is like you gotta be careful. If you get it wrong, you're not gonna find buyers. And this machine I think just got it all wrong. And here's what pains me is that Spooky's got my $2000. It was on me. Don't get me wrong. It was on me. But man, they really need to hit the next game out of the park because this game just didn't click. And I'm just going to say this. I know Halloween is holding value more, but everybody knows it's the dirty little thing. Nobody wants to say Halloween shoots just as bad as Ultraman. I mean, it's the same game, people. It shoots just as bad as Ultraman. So it's not just the theme as to why Ultraman is tanking. And I'm also hearing A lot of distributors are holding on to halloweens trying to find people to buy them. So these games are not sold out by any means. Everybody, happy Saturday. I'm going to quickly edit this, get this up, but I'm going to keep making great content for each and every one of you. I know we've lost some subscribers. We'll get them back. If you love Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, you really can't go anywhere else and get this kind of direct right into your living room, right into your ears, right into your car's stereo. T-Mobile, You Can't Get Another Show, That's just gonna start getting into it in 30 seconds. I'm not gonna talk about my life. Later! 🎵 Cause I know what it means 🎵 🎵 To walk along 🎵 🎵 An honest, vivid dream 🎵 🎵 And here I go again on my own 🎵 🎵 Going down the only road I've ever known 🎵 🎵 Like a trickster, I will... 🎵 Sw appearing online Archive wurden.com Moment baisEm Withdung The excerpts