Episode 992: "Playing Devil's Avatar Advocate"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·14m 52s·analyzed·Aug 28, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Kaneda argues Avatar can succeed via unprecedented visual/mechanical innovation despite community skepticism.

Summary

Host Kaneda takes a contrarian stance on Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar machine, arguing that despite widespread community skepticism (90% poll rejection), the game could succeed if it delivers unprecedented visual spectacle, mechanical innovation, and immersive 3D playfield design inspired by the film's scale. He speculates on potential features like bioluminescent upper playfield mountains, lower water playfields, UV lighting, and narrative progression, while acknowledging Avatar's high price point ($12K–$15K) and the industry's recent string of underwhelming themes demand execution perfection. Kaneda also suggests JJP may have strategically leaked the image to compete with Stern's X-Men announcement.

Key Claims

90% of poll respondents said they did not want Avatar as a pinball theme
high confidence · Kaneda, opening statement about conducting a poll
Jersey Jack Avatar is priced at $12,000–$15,000
high confidence · Kaneda discussing entry-level pricing for JJP games
Stern's Avatar pinball machine was 'absolutely atrocious and looks terrible'
high confidence · Kaneda, direct comparison of Stern vs. JJP Avatar
Jaws pinball was the first to use 3D glasses before Avatar
medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on 3D possibilities and historical precedent
Mark Seiden is designing Avatar for Jersey Jack Pinball
high confidence · Kaneda: 'this is Mark Seiden's first game'
Elton John and Guns N' Roses pinball machines lack storyline and narrative progression
high confidence · Kaneda comparing JJP recent titles: 'there's no storyline... you're not really progressing through a narrative'
Jersey Jack may have intentionally leaked the Avatar image to compete with Stern's X-Men announcement
low confidence · Kaneda speculating: 'Maybe Jersey Jack leak that image just to stay on the radar as Stern's about to gobble up so much money'
Avatar is likely to compete directly with Alice in Wonderland for collector/buyer dollars
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'it's going to be a competition for Alice in Wonderland... two sexy games competing for our dollars'
The industry has failed to deliver themes that appeal to the core adult male demographic (40–60 years old)
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'the rest of the industry... hasn't really delivered what grown men 40 to 60 want. It's not Labyrinth. It's not Looney Tunes. It's not Texas Chainsaw.'

Notable Quotes

“There's only one way this pin is going to work. There's only one way it's going to make all of us eat Pandora Crow... it has to do stuff that's never been done before. It has to look and come at us like a pinball machine has never done before.”
Kaneda @ early — Core thesis: Avatar must deliver unprecedented innovation to justify skepticism and high price
“If you think gnr light show is good if you think Elton John was good I think Avatar is going to glow and come to life like no other pinball machine in a lineup”
Kaneda @ mid-early — Optimistic prediction about visual spectacle and UV/blacklight presentation
“Jersey Jack did it with three lukewarm themes in a row. Stern's been doing it with overpriced games and themes we don't really want.”
Kaneda @ mid — Broad industry criticism; context for why Avatar announcement generates skepticism
“this thing is going to be stranger things on crack with much better mechanisms than stranger things”
Kaneda @ mid-late — Comparison prediction; implies high mechanical complexity and narrative integration
“When you put JJP's Avatar next to all the stuff from Stern for $13,000 and $10,000, next to everyone else's games, now as I think about it, it's going to be a competition for Alice in Wonderland.”
Kaneda @ late — Market competition prediction; positions Avatar as aesthetically competitive at premium price tier
“Stern was not expecting Jersey Jacks' next theme to be announced the same week of its X-Men. And not just the theme, people. I mean this. We've got an image.”
Kaneda @ late — Strategic observation about timing and potential leak; suggests surprise/strategic advantage for JJP
“I think what's gonna happen is this and i mean this as much as we don't love the theme trust me when i say this When you put JJP's Avatar next to all the stuff from Stern... it's going to embarrass everything else that out there”
Kaneda @ late — Strong comparative assertion about product quality and market competitiveness

Entities

Kanedaperson Mark Seidenperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyAvatargame X-Mengame Alice in Wonderlandgame

Signals

?
rumor_hype: Kaneda observes community transitioning from blanket skepticism to cautious curiosity; argues this is healthy pre-reveal pattern where low expectations create space for positive surprise
high · Early 90% rejection poll vs. late-episode positioning that game could exceed expectations if done well; explicit meta-commentary on hype cycles
?
leak_detection: Avatar playfield image leaked to Jason Knapp (source unknown); Kaneda speculates possible strategic leak by Jersey Jack to grab attention during Stern's X-Men announcement week
medium · 'Whoever leaked that image to Jason Knapp... Maybe Jersey Jack leaked it. I'm serious when I say this. Maybe Jersey Jack leak that image just to stay on the radar'
?
design_innovation: Kaneda speculates Avatar will feature multi-level playfield design: massive tree of life upper playfield with bioluminescent elements, floating mountain upper playfields, lower underwater playfield; mechanical integration of AMP suit or mech systems
medium · 'If we travel up that play field and there is a massive tree of life... floating mountains of Pandora that act as upper playfields... imagine if there's mechs in this game where the ball is flying'
?
design_innovation: Avatar anticipated to feature unprecedented UV/blacklight lighting, 4K video integration of Avatar film clips, voice integration (Sigourney Weaver suggested), highly immersive visual presentation
medium · 'When it lights up... it's like black lit uv lit spectacular lighting... it's going to glow and come to life like no other pinball machine... stunning art, stunning lights'
?

Topics

Avatar pinball theme reception and potentialprimaryJersey Jack vs. Stern competitive positioningprimaryPinball mechanical innovation and visual designprimaryCommunity sentiment and hype cycle managementprimaryPremium pinball pricing and market segmentationsecondaryIndustry theme selection and player preferencessecondaryImage leak timing and strategic announcementssecondaryNarrative/storyline integration in modern pinballsecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.62)— Kaneda starts pessimistic (90% rejection, industry fatigue) but pivots to cautious optimism about Avatar's *potential* if executed perfectly on visuals, mechanics, and narrative. Tone is enthusiastic about the *possibility* but realistic about the high bar required. Criticism of industry (Jersey Jack lukewarm themes, Stern overpricing) tempered by respect for designers and acknowledgment of entertainment value. Final stance is open-minded but conditional—excitement contingent on delivery.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.045

I want everybody to close your eyes. Join me in Pandora. Remember the magic of the Hallelujah Mountains soaring through the sky on your whatever the creature is called, battling the marines who are trying to get their hands on the precious unobtainium what an original name of a mineral but no everybody look i've woken up and i've said all the reasons why i don't think avatar is a good theme for pinball and i woke up this morning and I just wanted to play Devil's Advocate. Devil's Avatar Advocate for this game. Because I was thinking about it and I'm like, all right, look, it isn't a theme any of us want. When I've done a poll, 90% of people said they did not want Avatar. And I'm here to tell you right now, there's only one way this pin is going to work. There's only one way it's going to make all of us eat Pandora Crow. There's only one way it's going to make money. There's only one way it's going to wow us. And that is if this pinball machine delivers the same kind of never seen before spectacle that the movie delivered when we first saw it. And that means this pinball machine has to do stuff that's never been done before. It means it has to look and come at us like a pinball machine has never done before. It has to play like a pinball machine has never played before. And I was thinking about it. I'm like, well, you know, all we're seeing is the flipper gap area. Yes. And I've seen the jokes about what it looks like between the flippers. But here's the thing. If we travel up that play field and there is a massive tree of life with bioluminescent leaves hanging down and there are floating mountains of Pandora that act as upper playfields that the ball somehow like magically gets to. And I mean it like imagine if there's mechs in this game where the ball is flying and soaring through the air the same way the characters do in the movie, right? When they're jumping on those vines and going from the mountaintops, they're going to have to find a way to bring all of that magic, right? If you've ever been to the Disney World experience of Pandora, there is something, right? Even though the theme isn't as memorable as Star Wars, even though the characters aren't, even though it doesn't have like the lines other than I see you, it just doesn't have the same pull. There is something that it did have. Like there's a reason why these movies have made billions at the box office. And so to me that is the thing we all know that when this thing lights up and we see it with it's like black lit uv lit spectacular lighting i mean this is going to be probably the most insane pinball machine you ever turn on and light up when you put it in a dark game room if you think gnr light show is good if you think Elton John was good I think Avatar is going to glow and come to life like no other pinball machine in a lineup And all of a sudden I thinking about this stuff and I starting to get somewhat excited right I mean, Avatar, it's not like it's something we don't know about. It's much better than some of the other pinball themes that have been out there. The Stern game was absolutely atrocious and looks terrible. does not bring that avatar world to life in any way shape or form and hey you know are they gonna do anything with 3d as well i mean it kind of sucks that jaws came out with 3d before avatar and did it so well and so fun because now it won't be the first ever pinball machine to come with 3d glasses but i'm actually starting to feel like we're all gonna have to just be patient now here's the thing the game is out now like we know this is the next jjp game they might as well just hit now because think about it stern's about to launch x-men and show us everything and now we've seen like 10 of the avatar play field you might as well just show us the whole damn thing jjp and drop it the same exact moment that x-men comic book comes out now look here's what i'm hoping i'm hoping there's an all new artist in the game. I think there's an opportunity here for stunning art, stunning lights, stunning mechanisms. Yes, I said it's stunning mechanisms. Avatar is a world of three dimensions. You could think about if it's the first two movies, you might have the big tree of life. You can have those floating upper playfield mountains. You can have a lower playfield where you go under the water. Like that could be really cool. And imagine, just imagine that really lighting up in a unique way and all the creatures. I don't know, the more I think about it as it could translate into pinball, the more I can see the potential in the game. Now here is the thing though. It is a very high hill to climb. This isn't the sort of take my money now theme that I think everybody wanted right now. And I think the other thing that's unfortunate for Jersey Jack and all these pinball companies, and hey, it's not really unfortunate because they all did it to themselves. Jersey Jack did it with three lukewarm themes in a row. Stern's been doing it with overpriced games and themes we don't really want. And the rest of the industry, let's face it, hasn't really delivered what grown men 40 to 60 want. It's not Labyrinth. It's not Looney Tunes. It's not Texas Chainsaw. The entire industry has turned its back on what we really want. And all these companies have been making games for themselves. And that is why so many of us are just like, I don't really care. These are not the themes that we really, really want. So I think what's unfortunate now is we're coming out of this period where so many games have been so underwhelming, where we're looking at everything a lot more cynically. And now that the entry level to get into a Jersey Jack game is $12,000, it's going to be difficult. You know, like this isn't like something that's going to be $7,000 that like people will just like throw money at and throw in their game room. So for $12,000 to $15,000, this thing absolutely needs to bring some never seen before magic to pinball. It needs to integrate the movies into the machine as well. So like we going to need to see amazing 4K clips of Avatar on that screen We need to see the characters synced up with their voices Sigourney Weaver right Here another opportunity where they have to have Sigourney Weaver in the pinball machine itself So look here the thing We all grown adults and nobody should be offended by this. None of us need to own another pinball machine and I just want to encourage each and every one of us to sort of keep somewhat of an open mind as we go into this game. I woke up. It's a beautiful sunny day. I'm looking at my beautiful family. I live in a beautiful part of the world. There's so many people out there in the world with so much less. There's so many people out there in the world waking up in war-torn parts of the world. There are hostages. There are fatalities. There's so many people struggling with health issues. And you know, we shouldn't lose it because we get a pinball theme that is not to our liking. Now, if history has shown me anything in pinball we all me included me especially not just included me especially we all have a tendency to lose it before we see enough to make an opinion about a game so i think this thing is going to be stranger things on crack with much better mechanisms than stranger things and again i keep thinking about this jersey jack platform is so beautiful to begin with and this just might be the most beautiful and the most arresting pinball machine ever. And what I mean by that, it's going to glow in a way that's just going to attract everybody to it, right? And it's going to have a storyline. And that's the other thing that's sort of getting me excited because if I think about it right now, the two Jersey Jack machines that pull you in and attract you to the game, Elton John and Guns N' Roses, yes, I love both of those machines, but there's no storyline. they're kind of repetitive to play and you're not really progressing through a narrative at least with avatar there is a storyline albeit it's just a ripoff of pocahontas but there's gonna be stuff to do and you're gonna be going through scenes of the movies and you're gonna feel like you're progressing and i think that's gonna be a really important part of this game but again it's got to have everything it's got to wow us it's got to have everything and this is Mark Mark Seiden's first game. And so like, look, I'm curious to see how it drops. And I think it's good that we got all of the anger out. I've said this every time you've got a theme like Elton John or Avatar, you know, you got to get it out early, rip the bandaid off, let everybody scream about how much they don't want it. And then by the time the game is revealed, you're going to have everyone's expectations really low. And that's actually a good place to be with pinball because then the only place you can go is up and exceed people's expectations and they will approach it with a little bit more of an open mind because everyone's gonna be like well i'm not buying it but let me just check it out let me see what you got here huh that's somewhat interesting and i think what's gonna happen is this and i mean this as much as we don't love the theme trust me when i say this When you put JJP's Avatar next to all the stuff from Stern for $13,000 and $10,000, next to everyone else's games, now as I think about it, it's going to be a competition for Alice in Wonderland. If I'm Melvin, I might want to think about getting that game out and showing people it before Avatar is shown, because these are going to be two sexy games competing for our dollars. When you put this Jersey Jack Avatar next to everything else in the pinball market, I do think it going to embarrass everything else that out there And they got the resources And again I just just think this game is gonna glow and come to life like no other pinball machine ever and walking up to it is gonna create a moment like never before the same way the movies did and that's me just playing devil's advocate i'm excited to see more i'm excited to cover new pinball And hey, it's kind of interesting, right? All of a sudden now, Jersey Jacks got everyone talking, not Stern. Stern's month of Marvel, what happened to it? And now we're most likely going to get X-Men probably on Friday, or I don't know, maybe today or tomorrow, but whatever it is. Now this gets really interesting because Stern was not expecting Jersey Jacks' next theme to be announced the same week of its X-Men. And not just the theme, people. I mean this. We've got an image. Like, that rarely happens. And when we have one image, we know there's more where that came from. So whoever leaked that image to Jason Knapp, if you know who it is, I would happily take all of your other images. And heck, maybe Jersey Jack leaked it. I'm serious when I say this. Maybe Jersey Jack leak that image just to stay on the radar as Stern's about to gobble up so much money and so much game room space in our homes, which we all know is very limited. Everybody, I love this hobby. I love talking about this stuff. And no, Robert, who's listening right now over in Europe, it is not a fake image. This is not AI generated. We're not all being played for fools. It's not really going to be Margaritaville or Matrix. so everybody look this is going to be a crazy few weeks in pinball a crazy month as we head to expo so i look forward to covering all of it but yeah as grown adults let's try to keep a little bit of an open mind until we see everything it's not the theme i would have chosen but as i woke up this morning i do see the potential so let's see what we get thank you so much for being a member of Canadian Pinball Podcast. Close your eyes, everybody. I see you. I see you, Crazy Levy. I see you, Iceman. I see you, Robin. I'll see all of you in Pandora in just a few weeks. Good night, Ken Cromwell, Jack Guarnari, Brett Abbas, Leonard Abbas. Thank you for making some pinball in the world. It would be boring without each and every one of you. Happy Wednesday. I see you. I see you, Damien and Marty, you cowards. You're still not answering anybody. I see your shoes, Marty. I see them in the corner. I see you, Maurice. Some people call me Maurice. I see you. How many times is Canada going to say I see you? see you one more time bye