Episode 680: "Toy Story Hype & Should Haggis Refund?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 56s·analyzed·May 20, 2022

Analysis

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TL;DR

Kaneda hypes Toy Story as Pat Lawlor's final masterpiece and demands manufacturer accountability.

Summary

Kaneda expresses intense enthusiasm for the upcoming Toy Story pinball machine by Jersey Jack Pinball, predicting it will be a landmark release and comparing it favorably to classics like Addams Family. He discusses distribution strategy, CE pricing ($15-16K), and promises a raffle at Automate It. He also critiques Haggis Pinball for missing production deadlines and calls for accountability from manufacturers who take nonrefundable deposits but fail to deliver, contrasting this with Jersey Jack's execution and the consolidation of the market around 4 major players (Stern, JJP, Spooky, Chicago Gaming).

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball will produce 1,000 Toy Story Collector's Editions, the most they've ever made in CE format
medium confidence · Kaneda states JJP made 150 CEs for Dialed In, 200 for Pirates, 500 for Willy Wonka and Guns N' Roses, and will make 1,000 for Toy Story
Toy Story CEs will cost $15,000-$16,000
medium confidence · Kaneda cites pricing range when discussing distribution strategy and market saturation
Toy Story will not launch on Monday, May 23rd despite earlier reports
medium confidence · Kaneda cites conversation with Mike at Automate It, who said major distributors had not received allocation numbers that would indicate a Monday launch
Jersey Jack Pinball is working to replace Micro Playfield as supplier within 18 months
low confidence · Kaneda reports hearing JJP is seeking a solution and replacement, likely to take effect on Steve Ritchie's next game, not Toy Story
Haggis Pinball promised to produce 50 games per month when production began
high confidence · Kaneda cites this as a broken promise made in May 2021 when nonrefundable deposits were taken
Haggis Pinball announced Fathom production 26 days ago but has shipped zero additional units since
high confidence · Kaneda states Haggis staged a video claiming production had begun 26 days prior to episode recording, mathematically inconsistent with promised 50/month output
The pinball market is consolidating around 4 major players: Stern, Jersey Jack, Spooky, and Chicago Gaming
medium confidence · Kaneda predicts this consolidation will accelerate as smaller manufacturers fail to deliver product
Toy Story is Pat Lawlor's final pinball game
medium confidence · Kaneda frames it as Lawlor's 'final swan song opus' based on feedback from 2-3 people who have played the whitewood

Notable Quotes

“Toy Story is about to land on the pinball world like Godzilla's foot crushing a sandcastle.”
Kaneda @ early — Sets the tone for intense hype around Toy Story's market impact
“This game is going to be like Dialed In if you cared about Dialed In... Toy Story is going to be the complete opposite.”
Kaneda @ early — Contrasts Toy Story's thematic appeal with Dialed In's gameplay-focused design
“90% of people who buy these games, they are collectors or families putting them in their game rooms. What they are attracted to is a theme.”
Kaneda @ mid — Defines market segmentation and argues against tournament-player-centric game design philosophy
“There is nothing I can do about it. It's a dream theme for me. Two dream themes in a row... I have no other option. And that's just life.”
Kaneda @ mid — Acknowledges playfield supplier issue but rationalizes accepting it for premium IP
“I don't want to hold everyone accountable for everything they say... But the moment Marty and Damian took people's money in a nonrefundable way... Now we hold them accountable.”
Kaneda @ late — Establishes framework distinguishing between speculation and accountability for paid commitments
“Give me a refund? Don't you think we're at the point now where Haggis Pinball should actually offer refunds?”
Kaneda @ late — Directly calls for refund policy change in response to production delays
“Jersey Jack Pinball will make like 50 games a week. It's a real thing.”
Kaneda @ late — Contrasts JJP's execution capacity with struggling boutique manufacturers
“When someone says they're going to do something and they take your money, we should hold them accountable.”
Kaneda @ closing — Summarizes core theme of accountability discussion

Entities

Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Toy Storygame Pat Lawlorperson Kanedaperson MikepersonMicro PlayfieldcompanyHaggis Pinballcompany

Signals

?
rumor_hype: Toy Story launch timing speculation; Kaneda cites unconfirmed May 23rd Monday launch rumor and disputes it based on distributor intel from Automate It
medium · Kaneda: 'Now, do I think this game is going to be revealed on Monday, May 23rd like I was hearing it might be? I don't think so... Mike over at Automate It... has heard nothing... if it was launching on Monday, we most likely would have heard our allocation numbers by now'
?
product_strategy: Toy Story CE production at 1,000 units with $15-16K pricing; predicted rapid sell-out (hours); distributor allocation model (250 direct, 750 through distributors)
medium · Kaneda discusses unprecedented 1,000 CE production run, pricing range, and split between direct and distributor channels as response to FOMO demand
?
manufacturing_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball allegedly seeking to replace Micro Playfield supplier within 18 months; replacement unlikely for Toy Story but expected on Steve Ritchie's next game
low · Kaneda: 'They are working on a solution and they are looking to replace him in the next 18 months, but it's not going to happen on Toy Story. It's going to happen probably on Steve Ritchie's game'
?
product_concern: Ongoing criticism of Micro Playfield product quality; Kaneda acknowledges hating the products but accepts as only option given premium IP themes
high · Kaneda: 'Do I want that weasels product in my machine? No, but I have no other option. And that's just life. It's not fair, but it's the way it is'
?
regulatory_signal: Kaneda calls for Haggis Pinball to offer refunds due to missed production deadlines; cites Highway Pinball collapse as cautionary example of refund implementation

Transcript

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Look who jumped forty school buses and landed back into my life. Hi Duke. Who's the cowboy? Duke meet Woody. Woody meet- Duke Caboom! Canada's greatest stuntman! Huh! Oh yeah! Huh! Huh! Yes! Huh? He's posing. Ah, Tully's story is about to land on the pinball world like Godzilla's foot crushing a sandcastle. I can see it right now. Everyone's like, Kaneda, you're overhyping the game. Kaneda, you did this with Wonka. Kaneda, you're going to be wrong again. No, Kaneda's going to be right. And all of you haters out there that think Toy Story is not a great theme for pinball, you're out of your minds. Like this is exactly what a pinball theme should be. It should be a story driven narrative. It should have characters that have personality. I mean, just think about the call outs in this game. Think about how many different characters have You know what makes a pinball machine a keeper? Personality. And you know what makes a pinball machine forgettable? When it's boring. This game is going to be like dialed in if you cared about dialed in. Have you ever played dialed in? It is one of the most fun pinball games to shoot and then you step back and you're like I don't care about anything I just did. Toy Story is going to be the complete opposite. It's going to be like playing dialed in in which you actually care about the characters, about what's going on, about the fun, about the music, about the lights, about the callouts, about the shots, about the mechs, about the toys. And now people are starting to realize Kenaid is going to be right. And now people are starting to realize, oh my gosh, I got to get in on a CE. And for all of you people out there that are wondering how to get a CE, here is the truth. It's too late probably to get a CE from some of the bigger This week, I want to talk about the best bet for the big and the smallest distributors. If you are worried you are going to get locked out, there are 2 things working in your favor. One is, I think Jersey Jack is going to make a thousand of these. They have never made a thousand CEs. They made a hundred and fifty CEs for Dialed In, they made 200 for Pirates, and they made 500 for Wonka and Guns N' Roses. We have never made a thousand collectors editions and also the thing is this these machines are not going to be cheap they're probably going to be like fifteen or sixteen thousand dollars so to get a thousand people to commit to spending that much in one day might be a tall order but trust me right now this machine will sell out within a couple hours it will and you're going to be locked out now here's the other thing working in your favor because they are making a thousand Jersey Jack I think what they're going to do is this. I think they're going to sell 250 direct and they will sell 750 through distributors and that's a win-win for everybody because now distributors will actually get an allotment and then you'll have 250 people will be able to get it from JJP. And so if you really want one, here's what you need to do. You need to be ready for when the order banks open up. Now, when will that be? The order banks will open up when the game is revealed. Now, do I think this game is going to be revealed on Monday, May 23rd like I was hearing it might be? I don't think so. I'll tell you why because I just spoke to Mike over at Automated. He is one of the biggest distributors in the world, if not in America, and he has heard nothing. And he said, Chris, if it was launching on Monday, we most likely would have heard our allocation numbers by now. I am here to tell you I don't think it's going to be Monday but that doesn't mean we won't get a teaser or something else to sort of satiate us for the week. I also have some really good news for those of you out there who are worried about getting a CE. Mike over at Automated has agreed to put aside a Toy Story Collector's Edition and we will do another raffle over at Automated and by that I will drive over there and every I'm going to put your name in a hat and I will pull a name out of the hat and that person will win the chance to buy the game at sticker price. We've done it a few other times and we're going to do it again. I did it with Rush and I did it with Godzilla I believe. And those were two really hard to get games and I'm glad we did it. And for those of you out there who say Kaneda never does anything good for the community Besides like 7,000 shows and like all the Facebook lives, there you go. Now, speaking of the community, I want to welcome our new club members. I want to welcome Craig, Justin, Mark, Robert, Miles, Michael, Leon, Matt, Parker. Thanks guys for joining Kaneda club. We're at 508. We're sort of hanging steady there. And I just want to say this, look, I am very excited about Toy Story. And the way I'm looking at this game is it's Pat Lawler's final game. I've heard from two to three people. I have heard from people who don like Pat Lawler I have heard from people who have stood over this machine and the feedback is this It great It Pat Lawler greatest hits It loaded And you know what crazy to me The people pushing back The people trying to play devil advocate And I love Drew over at Poor Man and he did a 20 minute show designed to do one thing To level set your expectations Why would I be in this hobby if I didn get this giddy every time a huge theme was about to come out I was this giddy when Brian Eddy was making Mandalorian remember? I was. I was like how could Brian Eddy mess up a theme as amazing as Mandalorian and guess what? He did. And I have the same feeling now. I'm like how could Pat Lawler after having all of this time and after having all of these years and it's his final game. The final swan song opus effort of Mr. Pat Lawler. There's no way he's gonna exit pinball with the machine that's a dud. That's how I'm looking at this and for those of you saying how dare you get excited Kaneda about something you haven't seen. Well, I'm excited about going to heaven one day and I ain't never seen that. So don't ever try to tell me to stop being excited about pinball. I feel bad for people that are not this giddy on the eve of a new game from Jersey Jack Pinball. I don't get this way on the eve of a new spooky game. I don't really get this way on the eve of a new Stern game unless it's a Keith Elwin machine And nobody else makes me this excited. Seriously, do you get this excited when you see a remake from Chicago Gamingcompany? Do you get this excited when you see any other pinball machine? When you saw Weird Al? Like when Jerry's like, oh we got a new multi morphic game coming out. Nobody cares, nobody's that excited. But this is Pat Lawler's final pinball machine. The man who sold 22,000 Addams Family games. The man who made Twilight Zone. The man who knows how to put a lot into these games. And for those of you who say his games don't shoot well, you're also out of your mind. Because Willy Wonka is one of the greatest shooting games. Dialed In is one of the greatest shooting games. These games are a ton of fun to shoot. They just don't grab you the way I know Toy Story is going to grab you. And when Toy Story comes out, here is what is going to happen. It is going to send the prices of a lot of these other machines south. And that's a good thing. We all should be rooting for great games like Godzilla and Toy Story. I know you're like, you're nuts. You're off your rocker. You are already saying it's a great game. And I do think it's going to be a great game. I'm just assuming it's going to be a great game. And if it's a great game, and if it has everything we want in a pinball machine, that's going to be good because it's going to even out the pinball market. You're not going to then look at a game like Stranger Things and think it does enough. You're not going to look at some of these other titles and say, yeah, they hit it out of the park because they didn't. And you I've been getting in a back and forth with people on my Patreon page and Bond and a few other people and here's the thing. For those of you out there that think the main reason people buy pinball machines is because of gameplay, you're wrong. The main buyer of a pinball machine is not you. If you're a hardcore person who learns the rulesets, who's addicted to combos and great shots and hitting the orbit and all this stuff and How to get to multipliers. You represent like 10% of the pinball buying community. 90% of people who buy these games, they are collectors or families putting them in their game rooms. What they are attracted to is a theme. They're attracted to toys. They want the stuff in the machine to make them go. Wow. They want those wow moments. You know who doesn't like toys, you know, who doesn't like magnets, you know, who doesn't like like shooting stars, The only thing you really care about is winning your competition. The only fun you're having is figuring out how to get your score the highest. See think about it, if you're a tournament player, you approach a game like Guns and Roses and all you say is, well which song will get me the greatest score? And that's it, you're gonna choose that song every single time. So every time you play Guns and Roses, it's monotonous. Same thing with every game you jump on as a tournament player. You know exactly the pathway to high score. How is that enjoyable? How is that even something fun to design for? I think what's happened with a lot of these games recently is this is exactly what Stern would love you to fall in love with. Most of these games are being designed by tournament minded people. By people who are always out at operator locations seeing people on league nights. But that's not the primary buyer. Because if I was wrong, and it was all about gameplay, and it was all about skill, then why do people love games like Ghostbusters? It shoots like crap. Why do they love games like Batman? It doesn't shoot well. Why did Wizard of Oz sell so well? It doesn't shoot well at all. Why is Guns and Roses so successful A game that people now keep ragging on For all of you people hating on Guns and Roses why did it sell 5 units And this is why so many of you out there don understand marketing These games have given people what they want. And then when you stand up and say Guns N' Roses sucks and you cry about the game, you look stupid because it sold 5,000 units. If Guns N' Roses really sucked, it wouldn't have sold like it did. And you're like, well, it's a theme, the theme, the theme. So what? It's not just a theme. The entire game is amazing. This week's topic is the most popular topic in the game. I will never apologize for being excited. I can't wait for Toy Story Collector's Edition. I'm absolutely 1000% all in. The other thing is people are like, Kaneda, you're a hypocrite because you're not talking about the Mirko playfield issues. Guys, what would you like me to do? What am I supposed to do? They are using Mirko playfields in these games. There is nothing I can do about it. It's a dream theme for me. Two dream themes in a row. Guns and Roses and Toy Story. Both of which have Mirko. This Week in Pinball, Franchi), Prostate, Tantra, and Tantra, both of which have Mirko. Do I want that weasels product in my machine? No, but I have no other option. And that's just life. It's not fair, but it's the way it is. So I am not going to sacrifice buying this game because Mirko's playfield is in it. For those of you who do it and want a CE, here's what's going to happen. You're going to pass on getting one on day one in which you could have got one, and then you're going to want one and spend like $6,000 more. And you will end up proving absolutely Absolutely no point other than hurting your wallet more than you needed to. So just do me a favor. Do I still hate Mirko? Yes. Do I hate his crappy products? Yes. Should Jersey Jack have found a solution years ago? Yes. I'm also hearing this. They are working on a solution and they are looking to replace him in the next 18 months, but it's not going to happen on Toy Story. It's going to happen probably on Steve Ritchie's game. By the way, I know what Steve Ritchie's game is and I'm going to let All of you know before Knapp's Arcade, okay? That's how it's gonna work. No, I'm gonna let all of you know, but first I wanna get my Toy Story before they blacklist me, okay? But I know what it is. I know what it is. Here's what I wanna talk about other than the hype train for Toy Story. I wanna talk about real quick empathy versus accountability. And I've been thinking a lot about this. Like those two things, like should we be empathetic for a company like Haggis Pinball or should we be holding them accountable? Now I do believe it's a fine line, right? The good hearted person always wants to have empathy. But if you have too much empathy, you let people get away with stuff they shouldn't get away with. And you end up empowering people who might be misleading you because you always see the good in people. And I've learned this lesson the hard way in life. I once lent money to someone who sold me a car. Car salesman of mine. He sold me a car. He fell on hard times. I lent him $2,500. And he said, Chris, I guarantee you I will pay you this money back Avanāано kiɲ Dal CHAZAN fi˜YI, ʷaɩʏ j bic modi, Thank For Watchingingroundopinnovation2, datikination yi wchax 않을je, Ipeaceina wxyn1 I'm not doing it. Go find someone in your family to help you out. And so when I see a company like Haggis and I've been thinking about this because Damien called me unkind. I want to tell you right now. I think we need to hold these companies more accountable. I think we need to hold people like Steve Bowden more accountable. Like he's about to go on the podcast with Jeff Teolis and Marty Robbins and Steve Bowden. I mean, talk about putting three people together who basically shield all of the deep root stuff for so long. ут

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In fact, it's the opposite. People are still praising him. They are still praising him like none of it was his fault. Like he had no role in the Deep Root debacle. Then you've got these two guys like Damien and Marty, right? They're very popular in the pinball community. Let me just say it like this. 26 days ago, Damien and Marty put up a video that said Fathom Production had begun. They staged the video. They put up the pinball video. They put up the pinball video. They put up the pinball video. They put up the pinball video. They put up the pinball video. What a game in a box 26 days ago. And have you seen a second game go out since then? When Damien took people's money in May of 2021, he promised people games would be on the line July 1st and took nonrefundable deposits. He also said, and people are forgetting this because revisionist history is so strong among the pinball content creators. He also said And I'll let you know that he would be making 50 games a month when production began. So let just do the math Let forget about empathy for a minute and let hold him accountable to that If when he starts production he going to make 50 games a month So that basically like 50 games in 30 days 26 days ago, he told the world that he had made game number one. So 26 days later, how many fathoms should be built? Can we hold them accountable for that promise? Is that number now way off? Franchi is also told people via email that he will build all of them by the end of the year which is ostensibly 50 games a month between now and December. He is nowhere near any of this and if he is near some of this, and he is not sharing it, shame on them. My point about pinball is this. I don't want to hold everyone accountable for everything they say, right? Like George Gomez once said, we are gonna vault everything you think we will. All of the big games you love, we are going to vault. Am I gonna hold George Gomez accountable for saying that? They haven't vaulted all the popular titles. Where's Tron? Where's Lord of the Rings? And I don't really think they're gonna vault much ever again because of how much they're backlogged. They don't need to look back. Stern can just keep going forward. But I'm not going to be like George Gomez lied to us right when he said he was going to vault all these games because nobody gave them money. It's like if you paid George Gomez for the next four to five vaults and then he never gave you something, then we would hold him accountable. And that's my point is the moment Marty and Damian took people's money in a nonrefundable way and said, hey, we'll let you pay for the next four to five games. And then they can't even get one game out the door. Now we hold them accountable. You know, I'm sorry Marty Robbins, pinball designer, but I don't think it's going to work. And I'm just going to say it right now on Keneadus Pinball Podcast because they're doing it this way and they're not being transparent and they're not showing us the progress. How is it that nobody is now saying, give me a refund? Don't you think we are at the point now where Haggis should actually offer The Here's what would happen just like highway pinball if they gave refunds because they missed their deadlines by a year They would go out of business people would run for the hills take their money out And then they could not afford to pay staff order parts They would go under immediately and that's how highway pinball collapsed because they offered refunds And so this is just weird It's strange, and I'm not a fan of it and what's gonna happen is when Toy Story comes out Now everyone is going to move towards the light. They're going to move towards that game and they're going to want a game that's real, available now, on the line now. Jersey Jack will make like 50 games a week. It's a real thing. Jersey Jack will get these games out. I can't promise you the playfields are going to be good, but you're not going to be sitting on your hands a year from now waiting for the game you ordered on day one. And all of these other boutiques and all these other people that are wearing clown shoes, they're going to start to fail. And I mean it, they're gonna fail. This pinball market is becoming a two to three horse race. It is basically Stern, Spooky, JJP, and then CGC. So four people are legitimately getting it done. Everyone else, everyone else, like where are the games from American pinball? Nowhere to be found. Where's the Weird Al games? Nowhere to be found. Everyone else is failing people. They aren't making product. They aren't getting product out when they need to. And everyone's gonna get tired of waiting. Anthony Pneumonic, Black Water cartridges rectangle, Tindre ceasefillage,ptonique and pertaining page, text part PowerPoint, Pet Coldight Transports, You're going to do like David Fick said we are going to make two games a year. He said that two years ago. What's up? He didn't even design a game. They're just making Legends of a hall that someone else designed, and it's all going to come crashing down for these people. And Toy Story and Venom and James Vaughn and Back to the Future and Matrix. It's all coming. All of this stuff is coming. I'm excited. I've had too much coffee, not enough sleep. Canada out. Have a great weekend and let's hear in the comments section. I can hear bond typing right now. I disagree with everything you say, even though I listened to everything you say. Love you guys. I love that I get you going. It's pinball. It doesn't really matter that much. Let's have a great weekend and let's keep people accountable. When someone says they're going to do something and they take your money, we should hold them accountable. I don't want to live in a world in which we just have empathy for everybody. I get that there's delays and whatnot, but then be transparent about it. When you go radio silent, then I have no empathy. Then you're hiding. You're not being transparent. And that is unkind. Later.