Episode 993: "JJP Avatar Exclusive News"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·13m 7s·analyzed·Aug 29, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

JJP Avatar exclusive: 6 ramps, UV-heavy, 1,000 CEs, reveal in 1-2 weeks amid competitive fall release window.

Summary

Kaneda reports exclusive intel on Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar machine, claiming a reveal within 1-2 weeks featuring six ramps, extensive UV lighting, and 1,000 CE units. He contextualizes this within a competitive fall release window (Avatar vs. Stern's X-Men vs. Dutch Pinball's Alice vs. Spooky), critiques the industry's LE/CE production volumes and pricing strategy, and argues that FOMO is dead—games must now compete on gameplay magic rather than scarcity alone.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball will reveal Avatar pinball within 1-2 weeks
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'They're going to reveal this pinball machine like within the next two weeks, maybe even next week.' Based on claimed exclusive information.
Avatar will feature six ramps and extensive UV lighting
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'it is going to feature six ramps...you're going to look down at this game and it is fully lit up in its UV glory.'
Jersey Jack is producing 1,000 Collector's Edition units of Avatar
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'They are going to make 1,000 collector's editions of this game.'
Steve Ritchie had an impact on Avatar's playfield layout
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I heard that Steve Ritchie had an impact on the layout of this game'
Dutch Pinball will bring no more than 300 Alice units to North America
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'if you want an Alice, they most likely are going to bring no more than 300 Alice's to America.'
Stern Pinball X-Men announcement expected imminently
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'we're going to see Stern Pinball's X-Men like any day now. I think we're going to get the teaser tomorrow.'
Back to the Future pinball is coming out next year with extended wait
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Back to the Future is not going to be out anytime soon. It is coming out next year. But if you're waiting on Back to the Future, you're going to have a long wait. So you might be waiting over a year to get it.'
Godfather CE units are selling for $8,500 on secondary market, representing ~$6,500 loss
high confidence · Kaneda: 'did you see what Godfather's CEs are going for now? $8,500. $8,500. That is a loss of what? Like $6,500'
Avatar demand will kill demand for Elton John pinball
low confidence · Kaneda: 'when Avatar comes out, you know what's going to happen? The demand for Elton John is going to die instantly.'

Notable Quotes

“They're going to reveal this pinball machine like within the next two weeks, maybe even next week.”
Kaneda @ ~0:30 — Core exclusive claim about Avatar reveal timeline
“it is going to feature six ramps. Six, not two, not one, not zero, but six ramps will be in Avatar Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~5:45 — Major exclusive hardware specification claim
“FOMO is dead. The only way I'm going to go in on a game is if the game has all the magic.”
Kaneda @ ~12:30 — Key sentiment about market psychology and purchasing behavior shift
“They are going to make 1,000 collector's editions of this game. I don't know why nobody in pinball can actually address the issue of we're making too many LEs, we're making too many CEs.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00 — Direct criticism of JJP's LE/CE strategy and production volumes
“if you want an Alice, they most likely are going to bring no more than 300 Alice's to America. That's not a lot, right? That's not a lot. That's only six per state.”
Kaneda @ ~3:45 — Supply constraints claim about Dutch Pinball Alice
“You got to strike while the iron is hot. And there's nothing hot anymore about Pulp Fiction.”
Kaneda @ ~9:30 — Commentary on game lifecycle and hype saturation
“did you see what Godfather's CEs are going for now? $8,500. That is a loss of what? Like $6,500 people have lost on this game in basically a year and a half.”
Kaneda @ ~2:00 — Concrete secondary market pricing data showing collector value collapse
“There will always be more total nuclear annihilations in the world than Alice.”
Kaneda @ ~4:15 — Supply rarity comparison between classic game and Alice

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyDutch PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyMark Seidenperson Steve Ritchieperson Jack Dangerperson

Signals

?
machine_intel: Jersey Jack Pinball Avatar reveal expected within 1-2 weeks (mid-September timeframe)
medium · Kaneda: 'They're going to reveal this pinball machine like within the next two weeks, maybe even next week.'
?
design_innovation: Avatar features six ramps and extensive UV/blue lighting throughout the cabinet
medium · Kaneda: 'six ramps will be in Avatar Pinball...you're going to look down at this game and it is fully lit up in its UV glory'
?
product_strategy: Jersey Jack planning 1,000 Avatar CE units; Kaneda criticizes this volume as oversaturation
medium · Kaneda: 'They are going to make 1,000 collector's editions of this game. I don't know why nobody in pinball can actually address the issue of we're making too many LEs'
$
market_signal: Godfather CE units trading at $8,500 (MSRP ~$15,000), representing significant secondary market losses
high · Kaneda: 'did you see what Godfather's CEs are going for now? $8,500...That is a loss of what? Like $6,500'
~
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shifting away from FOMO-driven purchases; gameplay magic now required to drive sales
medium · Kaneda: 'FOMO is dead. The only way I'm going to go in on a game is if the game has all the magic.'
?
announcement: Stern Pinball X-Men reveal expected 'any day now' with teaser possibly tomorrow

Topics

Jersey Jack Pinball Avatar machine specs and reveal timingprimaryFall 2024 pinball release competition (Avatar vs. X-Men vs. Alice vs. Spooky)primaryLimited Edition and Collector's Edition production volumes and strategyprimarySecondary market pricing collapse and FOMO deathprimaryPinball pricing and market accessibilitysecondaryIndustry competition between boutique and major manufacturerssecondaryStern Pinball X-Men reveal strategy and timingsecondaryDutch Pinball Alice's Adventures in Wonderland marketing and distributionmentioned

Sentiment

positive(0.72)— Kaneda is excited about upcoming game announcements and competitive energy in the market, but expresses frustration with manufacturer LE/CE strategy, pricing, and secondary market value collapse. Mixed criticism and optimism about the hobby's direction.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.039

I'm going back someday, come what may, to Blue Bayou. Welcome everybody to the world's most prolific pinball podcaster, your host with the most Canada. Going back to Blue Bayou, I have some exclusive information about Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar Pinball, which I am hearing, by the way. They're going to reveal this pinball machine like within the next two weeks, maybe even next week. Stern Pinball has really slept on this X-Men reveal. The month of Marvel did not pan out. And I'm loving this. These pinball companies now are realizing you got to move and you got to get people stuff and you got to get people excited. I don't know about you, but I'm excited about this, that people are actually starting to do different things. Dutch Pinball X has been giving us teasers of Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. And what harm does that cause? This is what we want. I don't know why anybody who's a fan of pinball loves the old way of doing it, where, like, we're kept in the dark, and then we're all shoved into, like, this FOMO room in which we have to buy a game in one day and we have no information. We haven't seen anything on the game and everything just hits at once. I think if you're going to work on a game for a year, for two years, like don't just shove it out in one instant. Give it some breathing room. And now we're seeing Jersey Jack pinball get into the ring before Stern. And it's going to be Avatar versus X-Men versus Alice versus Spooky's new game this winter fall, it's going to get really exciting in pinball. And I just want to say this right now. I know a lot of people want to be angry, right? You want to be angry with these companies and I get it. Nobody likes these high prices. Nobody. Like there's nobody out there that's like, it's awesome, man, that pinball prices went up this high because none of us are investors in these companies right this is not like nvidia stock where i own a share of stern and if their margins go through the roof and they sell at this much money i'm going to see a return on that investment in fact it's been the complete opposite if you went in on these high price games you've absolutely been slaughtered on the secondhand market did John Youssi what Godfather's CEs are going for now? $8,500. $8,500. That is a loss of what? Like $6,500 people have lost on this game in basically a year and a half. And it's just going to get worse because when Avatar comes out, you know what's going to happen? The demand for Elton John is going to die instantly. Nobody even had demand for the Godfather. Toy Story 4, good luck selling that game So it a brave new world of pinball And at these prices these companies need to realize they are competing with each other And it almost doesn even matter anymore if you a boutique if you a big company like Stern or Jersey Jack, it doesn't matter. You're competing for $10,000 to $15,000. You're competing for someone's real estate in their game room. And so you got to figure out how to get people excited about your game. Now, it's easier for the boutiques because if I only have to sell 500 games, it's a lot easier for me to figure out how to sell that many games. So I'm going to tell you right now, if you want an Alice, they most likely are going to bring no more than 300 Alice's to America. That's not a lot, right? That's not a lot. That's only six per state if you break it down like that. And that's the most they'll ever bring over here. if demand is really big in Europe and in Australia and they get orders over there. The point being is this. There's not going to be many. There will always be more total nuclear annihilations in the world than Alice. So we shall see, right? It's going to be interesting. And I think we're going to see that game in just a few weeks. We are going to see Jersey Jack's Avatar in just a few days. And we're going to see Stern Pinball's X-Men like any day now. I think we're going to get the teaser tomorrow. I think Stern thinks it's being cheeky, waiting until the last possible moment in the month of Marvel to drop the game. And I don't think they were expecting Jersey Jack to make a move. I think the Jersey Jack move is really smart. Because if you think about it, remember when Foo Fighter came out before Godfather and snaked everybody? And that was Jack Danger's first game? I don't think they're going to let them do that. Do I think there's going to be games in boxes the day they reveal it? No, but I think they're going to show the game any day now. So here's the thing. Here's what I'm hearing. I am hearing that Avatar, I'm hearing that Mark Seidens Avatar is going to be very blue. And that is not like an exclusive if you're making an Avatar game. But you're going to look down at this game and it is fully lit up in its UV glory. So if you like the UV in Stranger Things, you are going to see most likely the most lit up and blue machine ever. And this thing's going to glow like no other in a game room. Here's a bit of exclusive information you haven't heard anywhere else. Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar Pinball Machine will be the complete opposite of Pulp Fiction. And what I mean by that, it is not going to be a single level game. This game is going to have, are you sitting down? It is going to feature six ramps. Six, not two, not one, not zero, but six ramps will be in Avatar Pinball. I heard the flow is fast and fun. I heard Steve Ritchie had an impact on the layout of this game I also heard that there are too many playfields that are part of this game So six ramps too many playfields a lot of speed a lot of blue a lot of UV light a lot of Pandora So there you go, everybody. I also heard, and I'm not happy to report this, but this is just expected. it. They are going to make 1,000 collector's editions of this game. I don't know why nobody in pinball can actually address the issue of we're making too many LEs, we're making too many CEs. It's just got to stop. And I mean that. The avatar demand, I don't think is there for 1,000. And again, yes, you can make 1,000, but should you? And for some reason, Stern and Jersey Jack are in this like standoff where nobody wants to reduce the numbers of their limited versions of their games. I don't get it. We know they're not going to roll back their prices, but the other way to give the consumer value is just roll back the amount you're going to make. And if there's only going to be 300 Alice's in America. All of a sudden it's feeling like, hey, if you want something different, that's the way to go. Think about like 1964 Scooby-Doo's, right? Why did we do that, Spooky? That was actually not a bad Scooby-Doo voice. I should do a whole show in Scooby-Doo, right? I should break the most exclusive pinball news in Canada's Scooby-Doo voice. I won't do it right now. I won't torture you. Or maybe I will. All right. So we've got a thousand avatars, lots of blue, six ramps. The price is going to remain the same and we're going to see the game in like a week or two. So that is very exciting because I think within two weeks, mid-September, we will have a lot more of Stern's X-Men, Jersey Jack's Avatar, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. And so all of a sudden, doesn't it feel like how many of you out there, show of hands, How many of you out there don't really want to pay the remainder of your Pulp Fiction LE? I don't even care about Pulp Fiction LE anymore. I get it. I get it. It just feels two years old. I've already moved on from it. I've played the game a bunch at locations and I just don't want to get one. There's so much more new and exciting stuff happening in pinball. It just goes to show you, you got to strike while the iron is hot. And there's nothing hot anymore about Pulp Fiction. Because think about like all these people are going to unbox it and be like, look, here's the game that's been out for a year now. And I just have a different topper. Same exact game. No new experience. No new thing to show. All you're getting is this plastic topper of the dance sequence in the game. And that's it. Right. There's really nothing else that's going to separate and make a wow moment happen when people get their bad mofo editions of Pulp Fiction. You know, and so that's where we're at. I think we're right on the eve of so much about to drop. It's gonna be fun covering all of it. And you know, I love doing these snippet shows for you guys because this is how it should be. You know I get it There other long form versions of content But I wanted to tell each and every one of you this My new goal moving forward is to work a little bit more with these manufacturers to get you information, to get you photos, to get you some exclusives, and then let's deconstruct what we get. I think there's a way to be fair and critical without being like overly negative. And I mean that. We shouldn't be in this hobby if what happens in pinball triggers us to the point where we're physically upset. Our health should not suffer because of what a pinball company does. I look at all of it like this. It's just going to take pure magic to get most of us to buy any of these games. FOMO is dead. The only way I'm going to go in on a game is if the game has all the magic. I'm going to tell you right now, I'm waiting for Back to the Future. It's going to be a while. Back to the Future is not going to be out anytime soon. It is coming out next year. But if you're waiting on Back to the Future, you're going to have a long wait. So you might be waiting over a year to get it. So I would look at these games that are coming out now as things that you should consider as options. But look, everyone's fed up with the pricing. Everyone is fed up with the too many LEs. The whole collectability feels like it's dead. So now it's kind of good because now we're kind of looking at all these games and we're looking at it through the right lens again. Is this game magical? Is this game creating a pinball experience like no other? And for those of you saying like avatar sucks, avatar this, avatar that, and yes, I would not have picked avatar. But how many people out there absolutely cannot stand Iron Maiden music, but love Iron Maiden pinball? And that's the point is there's always a chance, right? How many people out there like can't stand Elton John as a theme, but are absolutely loving the game. And that's the thing about what's about to happen is you're going to have to keep an open mind because the last thing you should do as a pinball fan is write off a game before John Youssi it, before you play it, and before you know how it makes you feel. You know, our love for pinball is a little bit like that show Love is Blind, you know? You know what I'm saying? Like, you got to go into each encounter with an open mind and you might fall in love with something and some game and someone who isn't quite what you expected. And that's a story for life. And it is a story for pinball. Everybody, more to come. I'm super excited, as you can tell. A lot's about to happen in this hobby in just a short amount of time. And you know you're going to hear it here first. I'm in my garage. It's early in the morning. I've been up early. I've been talking to Melvin in the Netherlands at 4.30 my time. Great conversations with him. I can't wait to share more about Alice with you. Trust me, I'm trying to get you more. The more John Youssi, I think the more you're going to get excited. Everybody have a great day. We'll talk to you soon.