Episode 688: "Why I Won't Buy Toy Story 4"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 20s·analyzed·Jun 18, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda cancels Toy Story 4 preorder citing weak IP execution and unjustifiable $15K pricing despite game's playability.

Summary

Kaneda explains his decision to cancel his $15,000 Collector's Edition preorder for Toy Story 4 (Jersey Jack Pinball), arguing that while the IP is a dream theme, the game is based only on the weaker fourth film rather than the beloved original, lacks imaginative mechanical implementation of the source material, and doesn't justify the premium price point. He critiques the pricing model across the industry, notes that Jersey Jack's simplification strategy mirrors Stern's approach, and expresses concern that $15,000 CE pricing is becoming arbitrary and unsustainable.

Key Claims

Toy Story 4 Collector's Edition sold out in three minutes through Jersey Jack Direct
high confidence · Kaneda directly stated this based on firsthand knowledge of the pre-order
Jersey Jack Pinball is adopting Stern's simplified design model: prioritize fun-to-shoot mechanics first, then add complexity
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Toy Story 4 design philosophy, comparing it to industry trends
Toy Story 4 Pinball lacks physical toy animation/mechanical features that align with the film's core premise
high confidence · Kaneda's detailed critique: 'The entire movie is about toys that come to life and do stuff and then you make a pinball machine about those toys and none of the toys come to life'
Haggis Pinball promised series ticket holders delivery of games by end of month (approximately two weeks from recording)
medium confidence · Kaneda citing Haggis Pinball direct communication to customers
Stern's next title announcement expected in fall, not August, coinciding with end of summer season
medium confidence · Kaneda speculation on Stern's upcoming release timeline
Toy Story 4 CE pricing at $15,000 limits secondary market appreciation potential compared to earlier premium releases like Avatar CE at $8,700
medium confidence · Kaneda's investment analysis comparing current CE pricing to historical precedent

Notable Quotes

“The first thing I want you to do is I want you to close your eyes and imagine that I brought you into a room and said, I'm going to show you pinball machines that are based on different properties.”
Kaneda @ early — Sets up the comparative framework for evaluating Toy Story 4 against successful licensed games (LOTR, Big Lebowski, Jurassic Park, Godzilla, Guns N' Roses)
“The number one reason I walking away from this game The number one reason is that Toy Story while a dream theme for me if it is only Toy Story 4 then it is not a dream theme for me.”
Kaneda @ middle — Core thesis: the specific film choice (4 instead of original) fundamentally undermines the property's appeal
“I look down at that game and I don't see a $15,000 product. And I know many of you do, right? They sold a lot of them.”
Kaneda @ middle — Frames the central value proposition debate and acknowledges market disagreement
“These pinball companies haven't even scratched the surface of the amount of demand that's out there globally...All you need is a thousand people who want this bad enough and you could charge more than fifteen thousand dollars.”
Kaneda @ middle — Macro-level market analysis suggesting manufacturers are discovering demand elasticity and pricing power
“It's a simplified stripped down version of Jersey Jack Pinball machines. I think they realize now that Stern's model works. Simplify the games. Make them easier to understand.”
Kaneda @ middle — Critical observation of JJP's design philosophy shift toward accessibility over complexity
“I don't want to spend twelve to fifteen thousand dollars on pinball machines ever I don't think machines should be this much demand sure I I spent $12,500 on Guns N' Roses CE because I love them so much and I think Eric nailed it.”
Kaneda @ middle — Reveals personal limit and exception case (Guns N' Roses CE as justified investment)
“If you have 15, you've got 17. If you've got 17, you've got 20. This is the problem with a game like this is that when you are financially capable of buying something so unnecessary.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Toy Story 4gameStern PinballcompanyPat Lawlorperson Haggis PinballcompanySpooky Pinballcompany

Signals

?
product_concern: Toy Story 4 pinball criticized for lacking physical toy animation and mechanical features despite the film's core theme of toys coming to life; missed opportunity for thematic integration (Ferris wheel, pinball-within-pinball concept)
high · Kaneda: 'The entire movie is about toys that come to life and do stuff and then you make a pinball machine about those toys and none of the toys come to life...There was a golden opportunity there to put a physical Ferris wheel'
$
market_signal: Toy Story 4 CE at $15,000 represents significant price escalation from Avatar CE ($8,700); sold out in 3 minutes, suggesting manufacturer discovered continued demand elasticity and may increase future pricing
high · Kaneda: 'They sold a hundred through Jersey Jack Pinball Direct. They sold out in three minutes...You don't think they probably said we could have charged even more. We could have charged 16,000, 17,500'
?
design_philosophy: Jersey Jack Pinball adopting Stern's simplified design model: prioritize fun-to-shoot mechanics and accessibility over complexity and mechanical depth
medium · Kaneda: 'I think they realize now that Stern's model works. Simplify the games. Make them easier to understand...Almost every single Stern pinball machine is fun to shoot'
?
licensing_signal: Toy Story 4 game based only on fourth film rather than original or combined IP; Kaneda suggests this was a licensing decision that may have been Disney-driven or constrained
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't know what went on with the licensing deal I don't know if the first three movies were available or not it doesn't matter...Perhaps Disney wanted it this way I don't know'
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Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.070

0:00

Strange things are happening to me. Strange things. Very strange things are happening to Kaneda these days. He takes a dream theme, Toy Story, he has a deposit on a collector's edition, $15,000, and I gave it up. And I want to explain on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast in a very calm and collected way why I gave up my collector's edition preorder, if you will, for Toy Story 4 from Jersey Jack Pinball. And I've seen the debate. I've been involved with the debate. I've seen people say they love it. It's a masterpiece. I see people say it's a cash grab, stripped down version of a Jersey Jack game. And here's what I want to do. I want to just give you my personal reasons from walking away from this game. I don't think it's gonna totally surprise you but I want to give you more clarity as I've calmed down because because it did take me like a week just to process everything to watch all the videos To see people write about the game, you know to hear what went into the making of it I didn't get to play it and I'm also going to talk to you about why I walked away from this pre-order I'm going to give you my reason. I don't care how good it shoots. It's just not for me. The first thing I want you to do is I want you to close your eyes. I want you to close your eyes and imagine that I brought you into a room and said, I'm going to show you pinball machines that are based on different properties. And then I want you to open your eyes and I want you to tell me if this machine lives up to what your expectations and what you're I'm going to show you what your imagination would be and just simply what you would want the pinball machine to be, okay? So the first game I walk you up to and say here is the pinball version of Lord of the Rings. And then I walk you around the game. I show you everything. We play the game. We have an amazing time. I then take you over to this is the Big Lebowski. Imagine everything in the Big Lebowski movie. Here is the pinball machine. Here is the cool stuff they put into this machine. It's got a bowling alley. It's got a rug you bash and then it rolls out. It's got all the clips from the movie you love with all the voice actors in it. It's got a parking lot in which you bash the car from the Big Lebowski. It's got this upper playfield, right? It's got all this stuff that's super, super cool. Then I tell you to close your eyes and open them again and here's Jurassic Park. Now, while this game does not have any of the movie clips, look at the T-Rex head in this game and what it does and see how awesome this game is. The game is. And then I say here's Godzilla pinball. Look at this. You're Godzilla. You play as Godzilla. The building goes up and it goes down. The bridge collapses. There's Mechagodzilla. Look at all the interesting shots in this game. And then I tell you to close your eyes, open them, and here's Guns and Roses. Imagine if you're a Guns and Roses fan and you see that pinball machine for the first time. And you see all the concert footage. You see the lights. You see the Les Paul guitar. You see the drumsticks. You see the drum set. You see everything from GNR World. You see this beautiful illustrated art package in the game. I think everyone is satisfied when they walk away from those games. I think everyone says they nailed it. Like this is what we want. And so then if I say to you, alright now do you love Toy Story? Do you love Toy Story? Do you love the Toy Story movies? And people would say yes, of course I love Toy Story. And then I say open your eyes, here's Toy Story Pinball. And you look down and you see the current game. Now the first thing is you're just going to have to get over the fact that this isn't the Toy Story anyone really wanted. And that's all. I know you're istoink 이거. The storyline of the fourth one is just not nearly as good as the first movie because the first movie is the story of Andy's room and Buzz Lightyear and Woody and how they have to go help get Buzz back and how Woody was super jealous of this fancy new toy and he gets pushed out the window and Buzz Lightyear is this toy that thinks he's a real space ranger. It's just the most beautiful story and the characters and the development of them, it's beautiful. And I have probably seen Toy Story 1 about I've watched this movie 50 times in my life. 50 times. I've memorized lines from the movie. Every time I watch the movie I get excited all over again. Now when I saw Toy Story 4 in 2019, I enjoyed it. I didn't love it love it. I didn't hate it. I thought it was okay. I thought the third film was all we needed. But I watched Toy Story 4 and I enjoyed it. But I never watched it again. I never wanted to watch it again. There are just those certain things you might see it, you might enjoy it, but that might be it. You might be good. You might not want to watch it over and over again. It didn't leave an indelible impression on us. The same way I will watch the Lord of the Rings movies over and over and over again, but I will never watch The Hobbit again. I don't care to watch The Hobbit again. It was entertaining. It was good. It made billions at the box office, but it wasn't a classic. And so that the number one reason I walking away from this game The number one reason is that Toy Story while a dream theme for me if it is only Toy Story 4 then it is not a dream theme for me And I can do a podcast like this like I got like 680 something episodes where I constantly tell each and every one of you to be more discerning with your selections And I told you that what I going to do moving forward on a personal level is I only going to buy dream themes that are executed properly Now I don consider Toy Story 4 only to be a dream theme for me And personally and this is just my own personal feelings I don want to get over that I don want to accept it I just don want it If it Toy Story 4 and that the game I out I out on just that front Now the other reason why it really What is a very valuable feature of one designed courts? 4. I look down at that game and I don't see a $15,000 product. And I know many of you do, right? They sold a lot of them. And the one I gave up, right? The one I gave up, it sold immediately. Like someone was waiting to get it. There is a waiting list to buy this machine at $15,000. So look, from a licensing standpoint, from a licensing standpoint, I know people are saying it was so stupid to license just the fourth movie. They sold all of them. So it's not a licensing mistake. Ed한 Клип , Matt, Marcello G. McClann Thank you so much for watching this video. Please subscribe if you enjoy it. I've been out of the office all day. So it was a good marketing move by Jack to get the Toy Story property. And I also want to say this. I haven't played the game yet and I'm hearing mixed things about the game. Some people say it's amazing, it's so much fun. We know it's going to shoot well. It's a Pat Lawler game. We know that. Here's what I think. I think I'm going to jump on this machine and I'm going to enjoy it. I'm going to have fun. For the decades of my life in which I enjoyed pinball, I didn't think I needed to buy the pinball machines. I went into an arcade and I played the pinball machines and I had fun. And that's exactly what I'm going to do with Toy Story. I can't wait to play it at Jack Bar. I can't wait to find one soon, jump on it, spend 20 to 50 bucks enjoying the game, knowing that I don't need to spend 12 or $15,000 to own it. And I know I don't want to own it because I just don't want Toy Story 4. I don't care how fun it is. I don't care how well it shoots. I don't care about the shot geometry. I just don't want Toy Story 4. You know, the only thing that could have changed my mind, and I mean this, the only thing that could have changed my mind is if I looked down at the game and I saw more value in it. And this is really the hardest debate to have. And this is the thing, everybody, and I mean it when I say it, this is a 100% subjective debate. There's no right or wrong. Nobody is wrong here. If somebody loves Toy Story 4 and wants to buy it and own it and sees the value, they're not wrong. The same way I'm not wrong if I say I don't see $15,000 in this game. I see a more simplified stripped down version of Jersey Jack Pinball Machines. I think they realize now that Stern's model works. Simplify the games. Make them easier to understand. I'm going to show you how to create a game that is fun to shoot. Like almost every single Stern pinball machine is fun to shoot. Almost every single one. And then after it's fun to shoot, we get down to stuff like are there cool mechs and toys in it? Is the code awesome? Right? Does it have a lot of replay value? But they always start out with a good theme that's got good art and it's fun to shoot. Now from that point here's where it gets really subjective is how much money does fun equal to you? I'm going to use a cargument. I've used it before. The most fun car you can possibly drive is a Mazda Miata. It's lightweight. It's super fun. You feel like you're in a go-kart. But then how much would you pay for a Miata? Would you pay $30,000? Probably. Would you pay $60,000? No. Would you pay $100,000? Absolutely not. And that's where I'm at with pinball right now because it's like the price of these games is almost becoming just an arbitrary test of how high the ceiling will go in this pinball market and I've been saying this for years. These pinball companies haven't even scratched the surface of the amount of money that's out there globally of the people who buy these things. All you need is a thousand people who want this bad enough and you could charge more than fifteen thousand dollars and it doesn't mean I think what Toy Story 4 is showing Jersey Jack Pinball is that I've been right all along about that part of the hobby. That these people have so much money now, they've been waiting to show you how much money they have. Because I do believe you have to be pretty damn well off to just wake up on a random day and plop down $15,000 on a pinball machine or $12,000 on an LE. And I don't begrudge anyone. I don't pretend to know anyone's financial situation. I don't pretend to know what you have in your checking account, what you got in savings, what you have in real estate holdings, what you've got in the stock market or crypto, hopefully not crypto, right? I don't pretend to know any of your backgrounds. I do know this. They sold. So what they did worked. I'm not angry about it. I'm not pissed off. I am just disappointed because I love Toy Story 1 so much and I'm allowed to be disappointed. I don know when they made Toy Story 4 only that it was going to be a bummer to all the people who grew up with the original movie like they knew that and I don know what went on with the licensing deal I don know if the first three movies were available or not it doesn matter it takes years to make a game and they not going to go back and make the original Toy Story perhaps Disney wanted it this way I don know and here the next part I going to say I don want to spend twelve to fifteen thousand dollars on pinball machines ever I don think machines should be this much money sure I spent $12.5 on Guns N' Roses CE because I love them so much and I think Eric nailed it. But every single Jersey Jack game now is going to be this expensive. Every single Jersey Jack game now probably is going to have a thousand CEs at $15,000. And they're probably going to raise the price even more because these things sold on day one at this price point. Think about it. We sold a hundred. They sold a hundred through JJP Direct. They sold out in three minutes. So think about that for a minute. You don't think they probably said we could have charged even more. We could have charged 16,000, 17,500 and they still would have went. And I've always said this. If you have 15, you've got 17. If you've got 17, you've got 20. This is the problem with a toy like this is that when you are financially capable of buying something so unnecessary, and I mean it from the I cheer,18 Conserv華, Will Beckham and his paintball pals Alberto in a There's no free food at spann이 endure mar compared to the came from the coffee caught in congateur6's You know, you could have this debate endlessly like it'll never end like philosophers could be debating What is the price of fun my old boss Gary Vaynerchuk used to say to people and they would ask him What's the ROI of social media if I pay you money to do social media for my brand? He would say what's the ROI of your mother and it always would just make the brand managers Freeze think about it and realize crap like I don't know how to put a price I'm the value of my mother. And so this is what's happening now. What's the ROI on fun? What's the value of fun to you? If unboxing a shiny game with Radcals and Toy Story and Buzz and Woody speaking in the game, if $15,000 is what you're willing to pay for that, great. I'm happy you get your game. I'm not buying it because I don't want that theme. I'm not buying it because I just don't see the mechanical stuff in it that I wanted to see. The entire movie is about toys that come to life and do stuff and then you make a pinball machine about those toys and none of the toys come to life. And no one seems to have an issue with that. Nobody seems to have a problem. If the game shoots well, if the ramp shot is fun, if jumping the Duke ramp is really a lot of fun and the music is colorful and playful and the artwork is colorful, that's all that matters. The lights are going off, the sounds are immersing you in the game. And I think these pinball companies are loving where all of you are at right now who are buying these things. Pasup whatnot

15:47

I'm a fan of pinball. I love pinball because it's analog. It's physical. If I wanted to play an iPad, I would just play I don't want to play Candy Crush on an iPad. I don't want to play virtual pinball on a physical pinball machine. There was a golden opportunity there to put a physical Ferris wheel. There was a golden opportunity to put the pinball machine from the movie. Physically make the pinball machine the toys are hiding inside of in the movie in the pinball machine and lock balls inside it. And that's my thing is no, there's none of that. It's not in there. They just made a game that shoots well and that is fun to play. And that's great. And I'm happy it's fun to play. I'm going to play and I will take my 50 bucks and I will play it on location. I will play it at friends houses. I will play it at shows and I will enjoy it and I'm sure I'll say this game is fun. It's just not something I would spend 12 to $15,000 on. I also think from an investment standpoint because we have to talk about this. I think if you get one, I really don't think these things are going up in value. In fact, the LDs are not going to go up in value like the LD buyers are going to lose Youranchife Gae Let Frapp inлар manifestation Ahhhpm possession you caart a wife peac вдc7 when you as an el And then I think it going to be over I don think it going to turn into like Stranger Things were like a year from now Everyone says it the best game ever but it already so expensive Remember Stranger Things LE was like 8 bucks 8,700 bucks. Like this thing is almost double that, double that from the factory. So there's not a lot of room anymore for these games to go up and up and up. And if they do go up in value, I think you're going to see, you know, with a thousand of them. I think these things, if they go up, I think maybe in the short term right now you might see CEs trading for maybe 17.5 I think like 18 would be the max but I'm not flipping one I didn't keep one to flip I'm not trying to make a quick buck I just walked away I made somebody else very happy there was someone who loves this movie he like loves Toy Story 4 like makes forky toys with his kids and he found out from Joe Newhart that Kaneda gave up his and it's yours now and he's super happy I was happy to pay it forward. I didn't fleece the community and I'm glad it's ending up with a real diehard Toy Story 4 fan, which I understand like if you love this movie, you're in, you're in on it. And I just don't love the movie. I just don't think this was the Toy Story movie that I'm fond of and the one I go back to. Look, I'm also like a little bit bummed out because my expectations were so high, but now we can get back to talking about the rest of the hobby. You know, lately it's been like, let's just talk about Haggis. Then we built the hype up for this game and now what right it's middle of June what's happening in pinball well there's a lot of other stuff happening and I will start covering that more on future shows for example spooky pinball the rumor is that Scooby-Doo is coming from spooky pinball that's exciting spooky needs a hot title to get things back on track I saw that there was an Ultraman new in box I think for like six thousand eight hundred and ninety dollars six thousand eight hundred and ninety dollars that game is just I'm not sending them a check for $8,000. That's not happening. Damien is telling all the series ticket holders that they will have their games by the end of the month. So that is two weeks. Don't have me cue the Andrew Highway two weeks phrase, but he's telling them in two weeks they'll have their games. I hope that happens. I haven't really been following Haggis over the last couple of weeks. I keep popping into the thread and I don't see any unboxings. That's it. I just don't see unboxings. So if stuff is happening, I hope so. We just haven't seen it. And if he's promising people by the end of this month, you know what, Damien, I'm having a great vacation. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt. I won't rag on you for two weeks. But if no games are unboxed by the end of June, yes, I will make fun of you again for missing more deadlines. And then it's quiet, right? It's quiet. Like people are waiting for I think they're doing it right and they're getting the games on location into homes the & Tanyaо An. I'm going to see this company go through that again. And then we're going to get to Stern's next title coming up real soon. I don't think it's going to happen in August. I think it's going to be sometime in the fall. But you know what? It's the summertime. You should be spending time outside with your families. You should be traveling. I always say this. Pinball is a winter sport, people. Don't spend the beautiful days you have on planet Earth locked in your basements playing pinball too much. Do that in the winter when the weather is cold and crappy, okay? Everybody thank you so much for the support. Thanks for hanging in there. I know I've had some like really candid and live it like Facebook lives, but I'm trying to just be a little bit more even keel on this stuff because I love pinball. I had high hopes for this game. It didn't deliver. So guess what? I just won't buy it. I'll wait for something else that speaks to me more. And the good thing about this hobby is there's so many companies making so many games and I can wait. I don't have FOMO anymore. I really don't. I look at Killian and I look at Brenda and I have everything I want in life. I do. I have everything. You could take away my demon. You could take away my Gucci. You could take away my Guns N' Roses pinball machine. But as long as I have my family and the people I love, I don't need this stuff. But boy, is it fun covering this hobby. And I'm so happy you're a club member and all of your support means so much to me. So thank you so much. We're now at like 523,000 I'm happy to do these shows for you on a weekly basis and I still think this is the best version of Kenaid. I mean I love my Facebook lives. I love it. But this this always is the thing. I love doing the most. Have a great day everybody a great weekend and we'll be back next week with more episodes of Kenaid a spinball podcast. Thank know