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Pinball market showing demand decline; inventory piling up; major announcement imminent.
Stern's next pinball machine will be either Dungeons and Dragons or King Kong, with confirmation of when it will be revealed coming within three weeks
high confidence · Kaneda stated he has 'a confirmation of when we're gonna see the game so that's gonna be real soon people we're talking less than three weeks' and references CES (January 7th) as the likely reveal date
Jersey Jack is fire-selling Guns and Roses Limited Edition machines at $225 off retail
high confidence · Kaneda discusses 'Guns and Roses $225 off on a Guns and Roses Ellie' and notes this is unprecedented manufacturer behavior signaling oversaturation
Distributors are sitting on massive inventory — dealers across the country have stockpiles of premium and pro machines
high confidence · Kaneda toured Automated (a major distributor) and witnessed extensive game inventory; references 20-30 key distributors all holding stock; estimates 'thousands of games new in box' in Chicago warehouse
New pinball machines are no longer sound investments — buying new in box (unless super rare LE) is now a losing financial move
high confidence · Kaneda: 'it's absolutely now a moronic move if you buy new inbox unless it's a super rare Le' and 'the desire to buy new inbox because it's a good buy because you're not going to lose much is over'
Guns and Roses Ellie retail MSRP is $11,000 but secondary market price is roughly $5,000-6,500, creating massive depreciation
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'the normal asking price that Jersey Jack wants for a gnle is $11,000 the Market Street price of the game is almost $5,000 less than that'
Elton John (Jersey Jack) is holding value better than other JJP games because it plays like a Stern machine with classic Ritchie flow
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Elton John is a Stern machine released by Jersey Jack' with 'buttery Steve Ritchie flow' and 'beautiful shooting,' differentiating it from other JJP titles
Steven Bowden (Fun With Bonus host) was recently unemployed and 'has never really contributed a single thing to a pinball machine that's hit the market'
“Stern is going to have to do the same thing you know when I walk through Mike's Warehouse Stern's gonna have to put so many of their pros and premiums on sale because there's a warehouse in Chicago with thousands of games unsold new in box”
Kaneda @ ~mid-show — Core claim about Stern's inventory crisis and inevitable price cuts coming; signals major market distress
“it's absolutely now a moronic move if you buy new inbox unless it's a super rare Le”
Kaneda @ ~25-30 min — Blunt statement of market shift: new machines no longer hold value as investments; affects collector psychology and purchasing patterns
“the number one way you're going to grow your business Seth and George and I was with Gary all you need to do is get everybody that loves pinball right now don't be ashamed of who they are... if you can get each one of your current customers to invite a new friend into Stern Pinball you will double your business”
Kaneda @ ~45-50 min — Explicit strategic advice to Stern leadership on growth model; reveals close relationship with decision-makers and Kaneda's view on organic vs. marketing-driven growth
“Elton John is a Stern machine released by Jersey Jack pinball... that beautiful buttery Steve Ritchie flow like a Stern machine and that is why Elton John is holding it's not a theme most people want it but it's still the most fun pinball experience you can have on a jersey Jack game”
Kaneda @ ~35 min — Articulates value driver for JJP's Elton John: mechanical/coding design philosophy trumps theme; signals what separates winners from losers in current market
“we're going to see a decline in the amount of people that get into the pinball hobby not an increase... the macro forces that are hitting this hobby right... games are too expensive especially in a inflationary world”
Kaneda @ ~20 min — Pessimistic market assessment: prices as barrier to entry; directly contradicts pinball growth narrative
“you got to remember this is institutional knowledge institutional Behavior he needs to break the number one behavioral shift Stern Pinball needs to make is they need to realize that their customers are not the distros their customers are not the operators their customers first and foremost at the top of the pyramid are the new inbox home buyers”
market_signal: Distributors and dealers across the pinball industry are holding excessive inventory of premium and pro machines. Kaneda toured Automated and observed extensive stockpiles; estimates Chicago warehouse has 'thousands of games new in box' unsold.
high · Kaneda: 'everybody's got inventory everybody like there is nobody who is not sitting on a lot of pinball inventory right now' and 'there is a warehouse in Chicago with thousands of games unsold new in box'
market_signal: Demand for new pinball machines at current price points is declining monthly and yearly. Community sentiment shifting away from new-in-box purchases; secondary market prices collapsing.
high · Kaneda: 'we are going to see a decline in the amount of people that get into the pinball hobby not an increase' and 'every month every year we are going to see a decline'
product_strategy: Jersey Jack placing own product (Guns and Roses LE) on sale with $225 discount — unprecedented manufacturer behavior signaling inventory desperation and demand weakness.
high · Kaneda: 'we don't normally see Manu ufacturers put their own product on sale if you look at that just as a move by a manufacturer the significance of what that's telegraphing is simple we've got more games than people want'
collector_signal: Secondary market prices for recent JJP and Stern releases collapsing. Guns and Roses LE retail $11,000 but selling for $5,000-6,500 (45-55% loss); Avatar expected to lose $4,000 in value by mid-2025.
high · Kaneda: 'Avatar Ellies are going to be worth eight grand by easily by the middle of 2025 so you're gonna lose $4,000' and 'Guns and Roses Ellie... almost $33,000 off on what you could get a G&R Le for'
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medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Steven Bowden is now unemployed I don't think Steve bow and has ever really contributed a single thing to a pinball machine that's hit the market'
MAP (Manufacturer's Advertised Price) pricing model in pinball is finished; manufacturers will lose pricing control
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Matt pricing is done let's let's just be honest people the map pricing model of pinball is over it's over so get ready to kiss a goodbye'
Evil Dead Limited Edition has not sold out primarily because of weak theme appeal, not game quality
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'the reason evil debt is not sold out is because of the theme' and speculates mainstream themes like Die Hard or Fifth Element would have sold much better
Spike 3 will feature a 4K screen, improved internet connectivity, enhanced lighting, and better processing power — but likely a gradual rollout throughout 2025, not a big debut game
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think you might see more of a a gradual rolling out of Spike three components over 2025' rather than 'all right here's King Kong and all the big changes are in it'
Kaneda @ ~50 min — Diagnosis of Stern's structural business problem: misaligned customer focus; implies systemic reorganization needed
“we haven't seen many Elton John but let's be honest you they did not make a thousand Elton John they absolutely did not”
Kaneda @ ~35 min — Suggests Elton John's scarcity relative to other JJP releases; rarity as value driver vs. demand collapse on newer titles
“I would love to help Stern pinball figure that part out you know over a decade I've been studying this industry I have 30 years almost of public relations marketing experience”
Kaneda @ ~55 min — Kaneda positions himself as potential consultant to Stern; reveals ambition to influence industry direction beyond content creation
“when Harry Potter comes out and Steve Ritchie's Matrix comes out absolutely expect Elton John prices to plummet”
Kaneda @ ~38 min — Prediction: new Stern releases will cannibalize Elton John value; references two unannounced future titles (Harry Potter, Matrix)
“Spike 3 is not what anybody thinks it's going to be... the best way to think about Spike three gang is to think about the difference between Spike one and Spike two”
Kaneda @ ~65 min — Manages expectations on Spike 3; suggests incremental rather than revolutionary tech upgrade; based on conversations with Seth Davis
business_signal: MAP (Manufacturer Advertised Price) pricing model breaking down. Manufacturers losing pricing control; Stern machines at $9,500 (premium) seen as 'ludicrous' in inflationary economy.
high · Kaneda: 'Matt pricing is done... the map pricing model of pinball is over' and 'in basically uh a St turn premium being $9,500 is kind of just like ludicrous'
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shifting away from buying new machines as investments. Kaneda emphasizes that new-in-box purchases no longer preserve value, reversing the long-standing justification for premium purchases.
high · Kaneda: 'the desire to buy new inbox because it's a good buy because you're not going to lose much is over like you're absolutely now a moronic move if you buy new inbox unless it's a super rare Le'
industry_signal: Stern's customer focus misaligned: prioritizing distributors and operators over home collectors (the actual primary revenue driver). Kaneda advises Stern leadership to restructure to prioritize new-in-box home buyer audience.
high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball needs to realize that their customers are not the distros their customers are not the operators their customers first and foremost at the top of the pyramid are the new inbox home buyers'
product_concern: Evil Dead LE not selling out despite high production quality; Kaneda attributes failure to niche theme appeal. Suggests mainstream 80s/90s IP (Die Hard, Fifth Element, Predator) would sell significantly better.
medium · Kaneda: 'the reason evil debt is not sold out is because of the theme' and 'if that was any other theme with a little bit more mainstream appeal they easily would have sold 888 of them by now'
announcement: Stern Pinball's next machine (Dungeons & Dragons or King Kong) will be announced/revealed within 3 weeks, likely at CES on January 7, 2025. Kaneda has confirmation on timing from Stern leadership.
high · Kaneda: 'I have a confirmation of when we're gonna see the game so that's gonna be real soon people we're talking less than three weeks... CES is is January 7th so just do the math like you're going to see a new Stern machine machine in the next three weeks'
technology_signal: Spike 3 will be incremental, not revolutionary: 4K screen (unnecessary but visually nicer), improved processing power, better internet connectivity, enhanced lighting. Gradual rollout throughout 2025 rather than major debut game.
medium · Kaneda: 'I think you might see more of a a gradual rolling out of Spike three components over 2025 versus all right here's King Kong and all the big changes are in it... that's not gonna happen'
personnel_signal: Steve Bowen (Fun With Bonus podcast) recently unemployed. Kaneda dismissive of his contribution to the industry, claiming he 'has never really contributed a single thing to a pinball machine that's hit the market.'
medium · Kaneda: 'Steve Bowen is now unemployed I don't think Steve bow and has ever really contributed a single thing to a pinball machine that's hit the market'
design_philosophy: Elton John (JJP) succeeds in secondary market due to superior mechanics and code design (Steve Ritchie flow), not theme popularity. Suggests mechanics/playability trump IP in determining long-term value.
medium · Kaneda: 'Elton John is a Stern machine released by Jersey Jack... it's still the most fun pinball experience you can have on a jersey Jack game from a gameplay standpoint there's nothing else in the jjp portfolio that comes close to shooting as well as uh as Elon John'