THIS is Why Stern Pinball's Next Game has NO HYPE!

Cary Hardy·video·16m 54s·analyzed·Sep 3, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.023

TL;DR

Star Wars teaser generates no hype due to poor marketing, franchise fatigue, Disney licensing limits, and 2027 anniversary edition strategy.

Summary

Cary Hardy critiques the lack of hype surrounding Stern's official announcement of Star Wars pinball, attributing it to a generic teaser that revealed no new information, community fatigue with Star Wars games, regional licensing restrictions from Disney, and the pending 50th anniversary edition in 2027 that may incentivize waiting. Hardy emphasizes that this release is critical for Stern and the broader market, warning that a mediocre performance could signal a market correction amid existing manufacturer instability.

Key Claims

Star Wars teaser revealed nothing new beyond what was already known (Star Wars, Spike 3 platform, September release)
high confidence · Cary Hardy, video analysis of official announcement
Disney's regional licensing model requires separate multi-year contracts for different regions, making European release economically unfeasible
high confidence · Cary Hardy, explanation of licensing fee structure
Stern is gauging demand for European release through DRO feedback before committing to regional licensing
high confidence · Cary Hardy, citing Zach Sharpe public response
The 2027 Star Wars 50th anniversary will likely trigger an anniversary edition release, deterring current-year purchases
medium confidence · Cary Hardy, pattern analysis of Stern's anniversary practices
Leaked/insider information suggests the new Star Wars game will be conventional and safe, appealing to new players but not veterans
medium confidence · Cary Hardy, stating 'from what I've heard' without naming specific sources
Star Wars is Stern's biggest-selling franchise historically
high confidence · Cary Hardy, comparative franchise analysis
Secondary market pinball machine prices are declining industry-wide, including vintage games
medium confidence · Cary Hardy, personal observation and market commentary
Recent manufacturer instability (Pinball Brothers tactics, American Pinball rebranding to Orbit) creates market uncertainty affecting all manufacturers
high confidence · Cary Hardy, industry observation

Notable Quotes

“So, we didn't learn anything new except the title. That's all we got. Nothing new, nothing new to chat about, no excitement, no hype, nothing.”
Cary Hardy @ early in video — Core thesis: the teaser failed to build anticipation by providing zero novel information
“It is a multi-year contract, and it is not cheap. Disney is very proud and they really want to lock in that multi-year contract... they want all multi3 years. I believe three is the minimum upfront.”
Cary Hardy @ mid-video licensing discussion — Explains Disney's aggressive licensing model and upfront cost structure
“If they can't sell through and it's another kind of meh release like King Kong on their Star Wars, then definitely the market is due for a correction.”
Cary Hardy @ market analysis section — Frames Star Wars 2025 as a critical test case for market health
“Okay, there it is. Do I buy this now or just hold off until the 50th anniversary? That's more than likely going to be aesthetically more pleasing.”
Cary Hardy @ anniversary edition discussion — Identifies anniversary edition as a sales dampener for the 2025 release
“The juice is more than likely not worth it.”
Cary Hardy @ licensing economics discussion — Summarizes Stern's cost-benefit analysis on European licensing
“I think the bottom bar that we're trying to reach for here is maybe it'll be better than Steve Ritchie attempt at Star Wars.”
Cary Hardy @ closing remarks — Sets low bar for 2025 Star Wars compared to 1992 version, reflects community expectations

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyStar Warsgame Cary Hardyperson Zach Sharpeperson John Borgperson Steve Ritchieperson Disneycompany

Signals

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product_launch: Star Wars official announcement generated minimal community excitement despite being a major franchise; teaser provided zero new information beyond previously leaked details
high · Hardy's core analysis that teaser revealed only 'Star Wars, Spike 3, September release' — all known since leak
~
sentiment_shift: Community displaying fatigue with Star Wars IP as franchise, with multiple re-releases and variants reducing novelty appeal
high · Hardy: 'growing a little bit of like another Star Wars game... They've done Star Wars a lot, more than any other franchise'
?
licensing_signal: Star Wars pinball will not release in Europe, UK, and Africa initially due to Disney's regional licensing model requiring separate multi-year contracts with upfront fees
high · Hardy cites Disney's multi-year contract minimums (3+ years) and upfront payment structure making European release economically unfeasible
$
market_signal: Secondary market prices for pinball machines declining across both new and classic titles, reducing collector confidence and ROI expectations
medium · Hardy: 'prices are going down... I'd be lucky to get maybe six for my premium Foo Fighters right now' (reference to $6k resale)
?
product_strategy: 2027 50th anniversary edition of Star Wars pinball expected to cannibalize 2025 sales as collectors defer purchases for aesthetically improved variant
medium · Hardy: 'Do I buy this now or just hold off until the 50th anniversary? That's more than likely going to be aesthetically more pleasing'

Transcript

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0:02

It's been over a week now since Stern made it official on what their next game is going to be. And during this week, there hasn't been much excitement or hype among the enthusiasts. But why, Carrie? Oh, I'll feed you, baby birds. What are the three main things that we knew before the official announcement? Number one, it was Star Wars. Number two, it was going to be on the Spike 3 platform, or at least most of the Spike 3. And number three was that it was going to be a September release. And then we get this teaser.

0:59

And what are the three things that we learn from this teaser? One, Star Wars. Two, Spike 3. And number three, September release. So, we didn't learn anything new except the title. That's all we got. Nothing new, nothing new to chat about, no excitement, no hype, nothing. And if you look back at the majority of Stern Pinball's teasers, they give us something. I mean, whether it be music or art, hell, even like Guardians of the Galaxy, they showed us the playfield before the official announcement. Things like that, parts of the playfield, a mech, they give us something. But this gave us nothing. As a matter of fact, the only thing that us enthusiasts were talking about was just how bad this teaser was. Now, of course, I'm not completely oblivious to this, guys. I'm well aware that I'm doing exactly what Stern wants. They want me to talk about them. I mean, there's no such thing as bad press. So, that's what's going on with this. But not only am I doing what you want, Stern, by talking about you, I'm going to oneup you on your teaser and show you what it should have been.

2:46

Now granted, my teaser not perfect. I mean, I put it together in probably like 10 minutes. I gave all the information that you gave in your teaser, but I also gave more. In the same amount of time, I confirmed that it would be the original Star Wars trilogy. I basically put in the John Williams score that I'm very certain is going to demonetize this video. Once again, thank you to my Patreon supporters out there. But above everything else, I'm going to generate hype with that. gets some excitement because it brings in that bit of nostalgia and fear of Darth Vader being involved. Now, we don't have an official reveal date, but my best guess is that we're going to be getting it on this coming Monday, the 8th. I could be wrong. And then we have DRO coming in on the 9th, and the content creators are coming in on the 10th. Now, this is a pretty consistent pattern so far with Stern is the way they've been doing the invites and everything. Now, I was invited. I will not be attending. Thank you for the invite, but I will cordially decline this time around. You do have another game coming out here in a little over a month along with Pinball Expo. So, I'm not going to be spending my money or my Patreon supporters money on going to play this game when I will get a lot more time on it at Pinball Expo. hell, if not sooner, from my local DRO. Now, when it comes to hype, or the lack thereof for that matter, it's not just that the teaser fell flat on its face. It's that I think a lot of us, although enjoy Star Wars, are growing a little bit of like another Star Wars game. I mean, you got to think about it. They've done Star Wars a lot. a good amount, more than any other franchise, have they dipped their fingers into the Star Wars pie. And that's where we're at once again. Now, granted, this could be a different story, blah blah blah, but it's still Star Wars. And I think it's a little bit of just like, uh, it's going to be another Star Wars game. And with what little bit of information has been leaked out to those who have seen it or those who have played it already, it seems like it's going to be, and I quote, another Star Wars game. Now, I can't say that that's going to be factual, but a part of me is saying that I'm willing to put money down. No, I'm not. I take that back. But I'm willing to just say from what I've heard, if you are new to pinball or general public, then you're going to find the game pretty impressive. Whereas the veterans among us are going to look at this as being it's another Star Wars game. And and I hope I'm wrong. I'm hoping that the information that has been allegedly leaked out is bad information. Maybe the game will be amazing. But along with other information I've received in regards to what else is going there, I'm not too surprised if it's going to be a safe release. I mean, it's already safe because they're digging into their old reliable Star Wars bag. It's like, yes, the most popular franchise ever along with Pokemon, but with what they've been releasing recently, it wouldn't surprise me if they're going to try to play it as safe as possible. And why would I say that they're trying or going to be playing it as safe as possible? Well, and that's in regards to the other news that was shortly released, not really to the public, but was been well known announced since it came out. And that was due to the fact that Stern Pinball will not be initially, I'm going to use that word, releasing this Star Wars game to Europe, I think the UK and Africa, designated countries. They're not going to be doing any initial release. And it's like the big thing was like why why are they doing this? Is it because of this? Is it because of that? And but when it all comes down to it guys, it's money. That's the end result and reason behind this. And it's mainly and due to Disney because Disney decided to basically break up their licenses into regions across the world. And so, not only do you have to pay your licensing fee for the US, which is 60% of Stern's market, if not more, then if you want to ship your game to this area or that area, that's another licensing fee all together. And when it comes to licensing with Disney, it's not just like, hey, we want to do this, and Disney's like, okay, cool. You can do that and that's it. No, it is a multi-year contract, and it is not cheap. Disney is very proud and they really want to lock in that multi-year contract. And whenever they get this contract in, it's not you pay them as the years go by. They want all multi3 years. I believe three is the minimum upfront. Then that's when the bean counters really come into play because now due to the nervousness of the industry right now among all manufacturers and the buyers and what we're seeing, I really do think that Stern is like, you know, I don't think it this might be worth the squeeze to try to get these games overseas because you're going to spend more than likely millions of dollars. Maybe not that much, but you got to think about it. If you're going to be spending multiple millions or even just a million dollars, just let's just call it 1 million even, how many games are going to go over there? And are they going to be able to recoup that money due to the licensing fees? More than likely not. That is also why they are stating to those that are asking people like Zack Sharp. And his response is if you're interested in getting the game, make sure you tell your DRO because that's what's coming down to guys. They are really trying to see if there is demand for it. If they see that the demand is there, then maybe they'll decide if the juice is worth the squeeze. But instantly, right off the cuff, they are seeing that the juice is more than likely not worth it. Now, again, this is Disney. This is not like going every title forward. This is more than likely going to be every Disney release going forward. I'm doing this portion right here. I'm editing the video. Actually, I've already put the video together, posted it up for my patrons, and I completely forgot to mention another valid reason why the hype isn't there for Star Wars. And that is for those of us that have seen the patterns of what Stern does when it comes to releasing their games. And when an anniversary comes around, they release an anniversary edition of that game, and it's a prettier version. Guess what's happening in the year 2027? The 50th anniversary of Star Wars. So, that's also hindering the hype for the initial release of this game. I think a lot of people I think a lot of people are going to wait. They're like, "Okay, there it is. Do I buy this now or just hold off until the 50th anniversary?" That's more than likely going to be aesthetically more pleasing. Now, this release, I believe, is going to be very important for Stern Pinball. And not just for Stern, this is going to potentially set the tone for pinball going forward because like I stated, Star Wars is their biggest seller franchise and everything that they've had. And if they can't get that to sell out with 770LE and you're not even including the Europe in that, if they can't sell through and it's another kind of meh release like King Kong on their Star Wars, then definitely the market is due for a correction. I mean, with the most recent news with Pinball Brothers trying to create fake FOMO and then American Pinball is turning itself into Orbit Games, this affects every manufacturer. If a company goes down in the pinball industry, that affects all manufacturers. Maybe in a good way, but maybe in a bad way because it creates uncertainty in the market. if they see a pinball company go down, it's not like, "Oh, there another one bites the dust now. I know that I could put all my money in this manufacturer." No, it makes it to where people are like, "Whoa, something's going on. Maybe I shouldn't buy a game because maybe something else is going on and I don't want to be stuck with a game that I potentially won't be able to get parts for or will just go completely down the drain in value. So, we want this release to be good. We want it to be. I don't sit here and hope that Star Wars just completely flops. I don't hope for any manufacturer's release to be a flop. But I'm saying that if this release is potentially meh, then we are in for an awakening because whether you're close to this or not, the secondhand market is definitely prices are going down. The value of your machines are going down. And we can sit here and go back and forth endlessly about how you shouldn't be buying your games. It's not an investment blah blah blah. I can I mean like I'm talking to a damn wall of some people around here. But like the point is even the old games, they're going down in value. I'm watching the prices there. There ain't no way I could get anywhere near like what my Foo Fighters premium is. I'd be lucky to get maybe six for my premium Foo Fighters right now. Lucky. And I'm in the market to eventually sell some other games. Not because I have to, but I want to make room for what is coming. It's not that I need to move games because I'm getting nervous. It's like, no, I need to move games because I know greatness is around the corner. Speaking of which, if you have not put your name on the DRO list for Spooky's next title, you might want to do so. So, look, I believe that's all I'm going to say in regards to what is currently going on with this lack of Star Wars hype and the nervousness in the market and the lack of you people over there in Europe not going to be able to enjoy this game. It sucks. And all I could say is at least it's just Disney and um not every game. But who knows, maybe there will be enough demand to push Stern into purchasing the license for that particular region. I just don't see the demand being that high right now. That's the main point on this is that the license cost a surplus amount of money. And for how many games? maybe a couple of hundred maybe. So, in a nutshell, I do not harp on Stern for not putting this game overseas. It is definitely Disney for this reason kind of thing, but I I do harp on them for not providing a more entertaining or interesting trailer slashteaser to help build up the hype, especially since this release is pretty damn important. But who knows? Maybe this is just kind of like a slow roll out and when the game finally gets revealed and we see everything, it's going to be amazing. I just I can't say it with a straight face because I have my doubts, but I'm willing to be surprised. So, what's your thoughts on all of this? Let me know in the comments section down below. A special thank you to all my Patreon supporters out there for your monthly contributions. Very much appreciated. and I'll see all of you at the end of the video. [Music]