Episode 1070: "Whistle While We Wait"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 15s·held·Mar 29, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Kaneda analyzes market dynamics during release lull, Barrels of Fun's next game reveal, and industry challenges.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the current pinball market lull while waiting for major releases (Harry Potter, King Kong, Predator), analyzes Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth performance and upcoming reveal strategy, critiques Jersey Jack's unlimited CE window for Harry Potter and pricing psychology above $10k, and reflects on the industry's generational sustainability concerns and his personal creative motivations.

Key Claims

Barrels of Fun produced approximately 1,100 Labyrinth machines with ~113 still available through distributors
high confidence · Kaneda discussing Labyrinth production numbers and current distributor stock
Next Barrels of Fun game will be revealed around May 1st, likely coinciding with raffle winner announcement
high confidence · Kaneda analyzing Barrels of Fun countdown timeline and his communication with David Van Ness
Jersey Jack will make approximately 100 Harry Potter CEs first, then distribute globally on same-day launch before making standard editions
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing Jersey Jack's planned global launch strategy for Harry Potter
90% of games released over $10k in the last 4 years have lost $3k-$5k in resale value
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing secondary market pricing trends and collector psychology
Kaneda was invited by David Van Ness to preview the next Barrels of Fun game and create content around its launch
high confidence · Kaneda stating 'I did hear from David Van Es that they are still planning to have me there to see the new game'
Jersey Jack no longer operates dual production lines and hasn't run small batch runs for years
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing Jersey Jack's manufacturing capacity: 'I don't think Jersey Jack has two lines anymore'
Pinball will not sustain large manufacturers long-term due to generational shifts; only boutiques will survive
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion on industry sustainability: 'I think the big dogs will survive... I think the boutiques are the future'
Labyrinth was not a 'smashing success' because Barrels of Fun announced 1,100 units but didn't reach that goal
medium confidence · Kaneda comparing Labyrinth's ~1,000 units to the 1,100 target: 'this is a little bit of like you didn't reach your goal'

Notable Quotes

“If they announced that they were only making 800 then it would have sold out and we would have been saying home run, right? But because they said they were going to make 1100 and they came in under that... it's hard to say it was a smashing success.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Directly addresses the tension between Barrels of Fun's production scale and market reception of Labyrinth
“Kaneda, this is a brand new company. They made a thousand games and shipped them to customers in a year. So on that level, absolutely this company has hit it out of the park.”
[name withheld pending review] @ ~12:00 — Captures competing frames for evaluating Barrels of Fun's inaugural title success
“I think Jersey Jack is going to hit a home run on this game. I think people that have been rooting against this company are going to change their mind on this game.”
Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Kaneda's confident prediction about Harry Potter's market impact and ability to sway skeptics
“It makes people cautious. They hesitate. The reason they hesitate is almost every single game, like 90% of games that have come out in the last four years that have been over $10,000, 90% of them have slid down and lost value.”
Kaneda @ ~48:00 — Key market signal about pricing psychology and secondary market devaluation
“I think that game is going to sell on theme alone, but I also think Eric Meunier is going to make a packed, really fun game.”
Kaneda @ ~50:00 — Prediction about Harry Potter's dual appeal: IP strength plus design quality
“This is the only thing in my life where I truly have creative freedom. I don't have to put up with any politics or bureaucracy.”
Kaneda @ ~55:00 — Reveals Kaneda's personal motivation for the podcast and its role in his creative outlet
“I think pinball is not gonna stick around for that much longer... I do think the boutiques will always survive... When Gen X becomes the new boomers in the world, we're going to have the most disposable income.”

Entities

Kanedaperson[name withheld pending review]personBrian Savageperson Barrels of Funcompany Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyMultimorphiccompany

Signals

$
market_signal: 90% of games released over $10k in last 4 years have lost $3k-$5k in resale value; Venom LEs cannot sell at $8k (representing $5k loss); psychological barrier at $10k threshold deterring purchases
high · Kaneda detailed analysis of secondary market pricing trends with specific game examples (Jersey Jack CEs, Stern LEs, Venom)
?
product_concern: Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth fell short of 1,100 unit production target with 113 units unsold in distributor channels; signals potential overestimation of market demand
high · Kaneda stating 113 games available through distributors and discussing implications of not reaching production goal
?
business_signal: Jersey Jack believed to have discontinued dual production lines; no longer running small batch operations like Hobbit, Dialed In, or Wonka batches
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't think Jersey Jack has two lines anymore. I don't think they've had two lines for years... they haven't done that in a while'
?
product_strategy: Jersey Jack planning unlimited CE orders within timed window for Harry Potter, followed by ~100 CEs global simultaneous shipment, then standard edition production
medium · Kaneda discussing Jersey Jack's Harry Potter strategy: 'they're going to take unlimited orders within a timeframe... Jersey Jack is going to make collector's editions first'
?
collector_signal: Unlimited CE windows reducing scarcity perception and resale value confidence among early-waitlist collectors; example of UK collector disappointed by unlimited window despite better availability

Transcript

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0:00

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Happy Friday everybody. I don't know about you, but I'm just like exhausted lately. I've been working a lot. The weather is changing. There's a lot mixing in the pinball world. We're all waiting to see these big titles, Harry Potter, King Kong, Predator, the new game from Barrels of Fun. Is it Dune? Is it Goonies? We're waiting to see what happens. These periods are sort of nice, right? You sort of give your wallet a little bit of a break and you just sort of hang out with each other. That's what I love about this hobby is in these times between releases, it's fun to get together and speculate and dream what is around the corner. I know a lot of us, if we think about all the titles, the two major things are going to be Harry Potter and Spike 3 King Kong. Seeing what happens in both of those games is going to get really interesting. As always, thanks for tuning in. But Stern might try to get all of us, not all of us because I don't have a Stern Spike 2 machine, but they're going to try to get everybody who's on Spike 2 and maybe even Spike 1 to upgrade. Maybe it's Spike 2 is LCD. They're going to want you to upgrade for the new monitor and they're going to sell it to you. And knowing Stern, they will probably charge a thousand dollars for a new monitor and new speakers for your game. We shall see. It's looking right now, as we look at April is next week, it's looking like the next game out might be Predator. Because if you look at the Barrels of Fun countdown and they're doing this raffle to register your Labyrinth game for a chance to win the next game, they're gonna announce the winner of that raffle on May 1st. So I would assume that's gonna happen right around the reveal of the next game. I also did hear yesterday, because I've been poking them, and sometimes I poke just to get a response. I did hear from David Van Es that they are still planning to have me there to see the new game and to make content to release for all of you to coincide with the launch of the game. Now, we know that David's going to want to give people at least two weeks notice to get this date on the calendar. So now we know it's not going to happen in the first two weeks of April. And so I think it's going to be end of April. I think May 1st is looking like the date they're going to reveal the game to the world. And what do I think of this raffle, right? This whole marketing thing to sort of register your labyrinth for a chance to win a new game, the newest game from them. First and foremost, if you own a labyrinth, no brainer, like absolutely register your game. I'm like, why wouldn't you? The odds of winning, you know, I don't know, they've made around a thousand labyrinth machines. I guess it is one in a thousand. The odds don't seem that great, but at least it's a nice gesture. It's a nice thing to do for people who have supported your company. There is also, I believe, a $10 donation to Project Pinball. And this whole thing is happening through the Project Pinball charity, and they're using the same sort of terms and conditions and the same company to do this sort of giveaway or sweepstakes, if you will. I'm not going to open up that can of worms about where all the money goes sometimes for some of these charities, but still might as well register your game. Now they also are letting everybody know that there's still 113 labyrinth games still available through distributors. I think that means there are 113 games that will have been built that distributors have ordered that there are no homes for. And I don't even think they're making all 1100. I think that's part of the 1,007 games they're going to build because they order parts in batches. So what does that mean? It does mean, and I know I said on my Facebook page, I did take it down. I don't know if this game's been a hit and some people argued with me about that. They said, Kaneda, this is a brand new company. They made a thousand games and shipped them to customers in a year. So on that level, absolutely this company has hit it out of the park. How many inaugural pinball companies have achieved what Barrels of Fun has done in its first game in its first year and on that level it's absolutely a success. Is the title a hit? It is kind of. If they announced that they were only making 800 then it would have sold out and we would have been saying home run, right? But because they said they were going to make 1100 and they came in under that, there is This is a little bit of like you didn't reach your goal. And when you don't reach your goal, it's hard to say it was a smashing success. I think they were a little bit overly ambitious I think they overestimated how many people wanted this theme And I know we are all together locked in arms that we want them to release a game in which they will have no problem getting 1100 orders and we know that that is not Dune it is Goonies or it is something else and I think that the state of affairs with this company I do now think it gonna be I'm Brian Savage, co-founder of this company, and I look forward to seeing what you got. Brian, we look forward to seeing what you got. And it sounds like the team is really excited about the next game. I look forward to seeing it. I've been giving a lot of opinions, and I've seen nothing. We have to give this company credit. The level of secrecy that this company has is incredible. We're all gonna know what the Steve Ritchie game is a year before it comes out. We knew about Harry Potter a year before it came out. We've known about King Kong forever. We knew about James Bond forever. We've known about Dungeons and Dragons. I think the game that nobody saw coming was John Wick. We all knew Venom was coming. And so it's nice. It is nice. They still have some secrets in the pinball world. Now, I still do think that knowing that Harry Potter is coming, I do think these guys need to get in front of it. I do because why would you want to wait? Right now there are zero dollars going towards Harry Potter. We can't order it. Nobody will take your money nobody will take your deposit and Barrels of Fun won't take your money right now Even though they have a game right around the corner and the game is far enough along to show everybody So that's gonna be interesting if you drop predator on top of Harry Potter 하지하알하다 обыч quarter

8:10

King Kong a little bit. I would turn King Kong into a 12-5 game, not a 13-6 game. And the reason I would do that is I think Stern Pinball needs to win back a lot of people that just don't want to buy new in box anymore because they feel like they've been overcharged. And one Keith Elwin game that's worth it every year is not going to make up for the amount of games that people have lost money on. And I also just think that there should be only 500 LEs and they should be 12.5 and that's it. Let the second hand market maintain its value. On the hot games, they'll go up in value and you should be okay with that. There's something about just because we can do it doesn't mean we should. I had an interesting conversation with a gentleman on my Patreon chat. I believe his name was Chris and he's over in the UK and he's been on a list for Harry Potter forever, like a year and a half, two years, right? He's been on the list. They're not going to get as many games as America and he's all excited to get his C.E. Now the news has broken that they might make unlimited C.E.s during a window of time. I don't mean like unlimited they're going to make. I mean, they'll take unlimited orders within a timeframe. Now, Chris is all bummed out about that. And people are like, what are you mad about? Like they're going to make as many as people want. Why would you be upset? And I understand if you're somebody who's been waiting online forever. Imagine if you've been waiting online for two years to get something and there's better seats in the house. And that's why you got online early and you want to get the better seats. And then all of a sudden they let everybody in at once and there's only one row of seats and everyone's got the same seat. And I know why Chris was upset. It's because he did. He's a collector. He wanted to get his hands on one and have one of only a thousand and he wanted to feel good that having that one, because he's been online for a year and a half, having that one game will hold its value in case he ever wants to get rid of it. Now, like everybody else, he's wondering, do I even order this game on that window? Knowing they're going to make so many, knowing dealers and distros are going to put in big in the past your allocation was small well now they can just order as many as they want and jjp will take those deposits even if it means they won't fulfill those orders for a few years i mean that people like they're going to be making harry potter for years the same way they made guns and roses for years and instead of over making gnr le's i think what's going to happen is it's going to be the ceo of the 10 Out prices pre ordered ride Bretjo's 8 Out Tickets pre ordered product We be right back The only thing taken out are the aesthetic things They want to sell those to operators And what I heard they going to do is there going to be a global launch of this game What that means is Jersey Jack is going to make collector's editions first. They're going to make, I don't know, a hundred of them. They're going to mail them all over the world. Wherever pinballs are sold, they will get the game all at the same time. And then they will reveal the game and do a global reveal, launch and ship of the product on one day. That is what the plan is. And after they make, I think, a hundred CEs, then they're going to make some standard edition games for operators. Now, I think what Jersey Jack needs to do, they need to have two lines. You can't turn it on and off like this. Like you should never stop making CEs. Just keep them going out the door and make the second line the standard edition for operators. I don't think Jersey Jack has two lines anymore. I don't think they've had two lines for years. They had a small second line years ago. I don't even think they're doing that. You know, they used to do small batch runs of games like Hobbit and Dialed In, stuff like Wonka, but they haven't done that in a while. This is going to be their biggest title ever. This is going to be their best selling game ever. I think it's going to be great. I think it's going to be magical. I really do. I think Jersey Jack is going to hit a home run on this game. I think people that have been rooting against this company are going to change their mind on this game. I think everybody should always go into every new game with an open mind. Of course we have prejudice. Of course we sort of want to judge a company by its last offering. Take a company like Pinball Brothers. People are basically saying Predator is going to be terrible because Queen and ABBA were lackluster and they haven't changed anyone on the team. So if you were to ask me, that's a game where I think if you are saying it's going to be bad, you're most likely going to be right. We all hope we're wrong, but Pinball Brothers hasn't really put it together ever, especially on their own. Remember, Alien was designed and developed by Andrew Highway like 12, 13 years ago. And so these guys under their own accord haven't designed a great game ever. And now they're making a new game, which is a theme people really love. And hopefully it has Arnold in it, but they haven't shown us that they know how to make a great pinball machine. Spooky Pinball, they keep getting better. Every game is better than the last. Evil Dead is their best game to date. Multimorphic, same thing. Their games keep getting better. Portal is the best multimorphic game to date. Whether or not people are going to go in on that platform, the market will decide. You know how I feel. I just think it's tough now. It's really tough. I think Jerry needs to sell the platform with a great game like Portal for a little bit of a loss leader position. I think he needs to sell this thing for 10,000 or less. Let you go over that 10,000 threshold now. It is a red flag. It makes people cautious. They hesitate. The reason they hesitate is almost every single game, like 90% of games that have come out in the last four years that have been over $10,000, 90% of them have slid down and lost value where you can now go get them today for 10,000 or less. So you've lost $5,000 on Jersey Jacks CEs. You've lost $3,000 to $5,000 on Stern LEs. I'm looking at all these Venom LEs. You can't even sell one at eight, right? You can't sell a Venom LE for $8,000. That's a $5,000 loss. It's still there. Like it's just something psychological about spending more than $10,000 on a pinball machine that isn't really limited, that isn't a dream theme. And I think that's the reality of the market now. And look, I think we all agree. I heard Zach Meny said this. I agree. Like 2025 is going to have better themes than 2024. 2024 was a really low bar though. And so we're definitely going to get better themes. I mean, Harry Potter is going to be the second biggest theme in the history of pinball. Star Wars is number one. And then we're going to get Harry Potter. I think Star Wars in terms of most popular IPs in the world, I think Star Wars is like number five and Harry Potter's number seven, but they're juggernauts. They're absolute juggernauts. And I think that game is going to sell on theme alone, but I also think Eric Minier is going to make a packed, really fun game. And I hope the clips are not muted and we're going to see within a month and it's going to get exciting. You know, I want to end this podcast real quick, everybody, you know, because we're all in this sort of like waiting to see what happens next. I want to just explain in a couple of minutes why I do this show and why I get so much excitement out of this show. So, and it simply is because this is the only thing in my life where I truly have creative freedom. I don't have to put up with any politics or bureaucracy. I don't have to have a committee of people working with me. I don't have to listen to what a strategist says the idea should be. I don't have to have account people telling me no. I don't have to have media relations people telling me this idea is not going to work. Every day I go into work and I deal with a lot of people. And we are working on major brands and we're trying to come up with creative ideas. And when you have a lot of people working on it, the more people you put on the assignment, the more difficult it becomes to land on a very simple, fun, creative idea that's going to work. And Kaneda's Pinball Podcast to me is a very fun, simple, creative idea that has worked all of these years. to look at this hobby and not be in the back pocket of the manufacturer to give opinions and they are opinions and they are subjective My opinion isn worth any more than anyone else It just makes more money than some other opinions because people find it entertaining and I love doing it. And if I didn't have this outlet, I would feel much more of an empty human. I would because I think we all need a creative outlet or we need to connect into a community that creates content and conversation that makes you feel a part of something and I think that's what most of you get from pinball it's not the machines that are making you feel great it's the relationships with the people that love talking about and playing these machines that make you feel great make you feel satisfied and I mean this if I were to lose this and all of you in this community I would lose some of my best friends. I would lose the conversations I want to be having. And I would feel a lot lonelier in my existence on this planet. Of course, I love my wife. My friend is amazing. My family is amazing. But I realize this as we get older, and a lot of us are children of the 80s and the 90s. I was born in 76. As we get older, and if you work with people of all different generations, I've noticed this. You start to feel like things are moving on past you, like new things are developing that you just don't care about. For example, like they might come to me and say, Hey, did you see this on TikTok? And I'm like, I don't want to spend any time on TikTok. I think that kind of content is terrible, but that's where billions of people are going. It's not like I want to shut TikTok down. I can't geek out over that stuff the way I can geek out over 80s movies, over video games we grew up with, Over pinball machines on a forum. I find TikTok to be what's horrible in society today. I think that stuff does make people lonely. It is isolating. It's not bringing people together and what these people are absorbing is

19:31

non-stop things that make them feel inadequate, make them feel broke, make them feel insecure. When we were kids, think about what we absorbed. We wanted to be Luke Skywalker. We wanted to be Maverick. We wanted to be the Karate Kid. The things we like plugged into took us on an adventure, right? Nowadays they don't even watch movies like the kids can't even pay attention for a movie They're watching a movie for the first time and they've got a phone open They've got a laptop open and that's why I love the fact that mostly all of us we grew up Before there was any of this nonsense and we engaged and we plugged in It's also why I think pinball is not gonna stick around for that much longer. We're all gonna get old and there's not gonna be a next generation of kids that will pick up and buy these games. I do think the boutiques will always survive because face it until a lot of us are dead like we'll be buying pins into our 80s. I mean it. An 80 year old man who's got money and doesn't want any of the new flashbang crap And that will still buy a pinball machine. When Gen X becomes the new boomers in the world, we're going to have the most disposable income. Hopefully we've all taken care of ourselves physically and we're still going to buy games. I just don't think like the big dogs will survive. I think the boutiques are the future because again, you're always going to be able to find a thousand customers over the next 10, 20 years in pinball. What you're not going to be able to find consistently if you want to make three to four games a to become a pinball fan at millions of 거예요. You're going to go like 10 Carmander, and when I go online, but to, you know, never again, do you go back and make a bots, print or anything else again, and you never get the block makes it back again and you never get the cl ا partir so you're doing wrong in selling pins in вы glass. Dr TikTok nail polish, October 18 to 14 year old mis headquarters pinball soliones, and you know some of the younger talent haven't developed any ideas and you've been working all night and everybody sort of gets by now you got to create you got to keep creating and that's why I love this show and I love my promise to you every week you're at least gonna get two shows a week and you're hopefully gonna get the Saturday morning spectacular the creation never stops and this is what keeps me going it's what keeps me excited and it's the same kind of energy I want with people I work with it's the same kind of energy I see in The other pinball content creators that are crushing it, you know who they are. And it's the same reason why every month you stick around. You stick around because hopefully you're having fun and I can't wait for these new games to come out. We're going to have a great time giving our opinions about them. Everybody have an amazing Friday. Be happy to be here. Life is really short. It really is. We never should get too upset about pinball or each other. It's all going to end. But while we're here, let's stay positive and be optimistic that Jersey Jack is going to crush Harry Potter in a good way. Kaneda out.