Free Show: EPISODE 1188: "Why Pokemon Might Be The Most Important Pinball Ever & The LE Will Hit $30,000!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 24s·analyzed·Feb 16, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.037

TL;DR

Pokemon Pinball LE units selling for $20K+ represent Stern's comeback moment with unprecedented crossover collector demand.

Summary

Kaneda delivers an enthusiastic analysis of Pokemon Pinball's unprecedented launch success, with LE units selling out immediately and commanding $20,000+ on secondary markets. He argues Pokemon represents Stern's strongest recovery move in years, praising the accessible-yet-deep design philosophy inspired by classics like Monster Bash and Junkyard, and predicts the LE could reach $30,000 as collector demand from the broader Pokemon community enters the pinball market. He positions Pokemon as a gateway game that will expand the hobby beyond traditional audiences while defending the 750-unit LE scarcity strategy against skeptics.

Key Claims

Pokemon LE units are already being sold for $20,000 immediately after Friday reveal, with potential to reach $30,000
high confidence · Direct market observation; Kaneda states 'I'm seeing people are selling their LEs for $20,000 instantly' and later predicts '$20,000 is not the ceiling' and 'I think this thing is going to hit around like $30,000'
All 750 Pokemon LE units were spoken for within days of announcement (Friday to Monday)
high confidence · Kaneda: 'It is only Monday and they're all gone. They were all spoken for immediately.'
Pokemon could become the best-selling Stern machine of all time
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates: 'It is, I think, going to be maybe the best-selling freaking Stern machine of all time' and later 'If the most people ever buy this game, I think this could be Stern's best-selling game ever'
Pokemon's license comes from a $220 billion IP property making it among the most valuable licenses Stern has ever secured
high confidence · Kaneda: 'If you look at how many people in the world are into this IP, it is a $220 billion property' and references this as comparable to Supreme's collector frenzy
The game was revealed Friday and by Monday all units were sold out, marking unprecedented LE launch velocity
high confidence · Kaneda: 'I have to pinch myself and remind myself that this game was revealed to the world on Friday. It is only Monday and they're all gone.'
Stern deliberately constrained LE production to 750 units (vs. 1,000 for John Wick and Venom) to drive scarcity and value
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'The fact that they only made 750 Pokemon LEs when they made 1,000 John Wicks and 1,000 Venoms. Gang, this is going to go through the roof.'
Pokemon game design intentionally draws from Monster Bash, Attack from Mars, and Medieval Madness as inspiration
high confidence · Kaneda: 'when they start talking about how this game is taking inspiration from Monster Bash and from Attack from Mars and Medieval Madness'

Notable Quotes

“I'm seeing people are selling their LEs for $20,000 instantly! This is maybe the biggest Stern LE launch of all time.”
Kaneda @ opening — Establishes unprecedented secondary market pricing and market-clearing velocity
“Stern is back baby like they are back this company's been taking lashes not just for me from everybody and rightfully so”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Key thesis: Pokemon represents Stern's recovery from years of criticism
“If you have a Pokemon LE, I mean this when I say $20,000 is not the ceiling... I think this thing is going to hit around like $30,000”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Bold price prediction; signals extreme collector demand expectations
“This is a callback to Junkyard... Don't need like Keith Johnson walking into the room with Avatar and handing me a diner menu that's like 15 feet long about the rule sets.”
Kaneda @ ~18:00 — Defends simpler shot count philosophy; compares favorably to complex layouts
“They could have easily made a lot of these which is the number of Pokemon. The fact that they only made 750 Pokemon LEs when they made 1,000 John Wicks and 1,000 Venoms.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Explains deliberate production constraint strategy for scarcity-driven secondary market value
“When you put Sonic CE next to Pokemon, yes, it's going to make Pokemon look like a $3,000 item, but that's not going to change the fact that there's only 750 Pokemon LEs forever in the world”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Articulates collectibility thesis despite anticipated lower Sonic LE pricing
“The hard part for each and every one of us is making enough money and finding enough room to put all of these exciting games into our collections.”
Kaneda @ ~47:00 — Acknowledges capacity constraints in 'greatest year in pinball history' scenario
“Even like the John Wick and Venom LEs of the world, those things are going to crash down to like 6,500. There's just, everyone's just going to start getting rid of stuff.”

Entities

Pokemon Pinballproduct KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyGeorge Gomezperson Jack Dangerperson Zombie Yetiperson Monster Bashproduct

Signals

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business_signal: Pokemon success positioned as transformative for Stern's internal morale and market credibility after years of toxic environment and critical reception; game framed as institutional recovery catalyst
medium · Kaneda: 'This is the kind of game that is going to change the energy over at Stern. That company has been demoralized for like four years.'
?
community_signal: Pokemon announcement triggered massive new user influx on Pinside forums (3-10 post accounts noted) signaling hobby expansion beyond traditional audience; Kaneda frames as positive gateway event
medium · Kaneda: 'You're not going to see that with Winchester's Mystery House... Look at the amount of people on there now since Friday that only have like three to 10 posts. They're brand new.'
?
competitive_signal: Pokemon LE positioned as ultimate collector item with 750-unit limit vs. John Wick/Venom's 1,000-unit production; deliberate scarcity strategy to drive secondary market value differentiation
high · Kaneda: 'The fact that they only made 750 Pokemon LEs when they made 1,000 John Wicks and 1,000 Venoms. Gang, this is going to go through the roof.'
?
design_philosophy: Pokemon intentionally designed with fewer shots (~5) and simpler architecture than contemporary Stern games; draws inspiration from Monster Bash, Attack from Mars, Medieval Madness, Junkyard; trade-off is accessibility + charm vs. mechanical complexity
high · Kaneda: 'which has maybe five shots, a callback to Junkyard... you don't need 12 shots to have fun... taking inspiration from Monster Bash and from Attack from Mars and Medieval Madness'
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Topics

Pokemon Pinball secondary market pricing and LE scarcity strategyprimaryGame design philosophy: accessibility vs. depth (Junkyard/Monster Bash callbacks)primaryStern Pinball's recovery narrative and market position after years of criticismprimaryCollector behavior and crossover demand from broader Pokemon fanbaseprimary2026 Stern release pipeline (Transformers G1, Sonic, Back to the Future, Goonies)secondaryPost-launch code update strategy and game longevitysecondaryPredicted secondary market devaluation of John Wick and Venom LEssecondaryCommunity sentiment shift toward anime/kawaii IP licensing (Sonic, Pokemon vs. horror/legacy themes)mentioned

Sentiment

positive(0.92)— Kaneda is euphorically enthusiastic about Pokemon Pinball, framing it as transformative for Stern and the hobby. While he acknowledges design simplicity (fewer shots than typical), he frames this as intentional and positive. Only mild tension noted in references to critical community members ('cargo short, curmudgeon-y old men on Pinside') but overall tone is celebratory of hobby expansion and collector excitement.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.064

Oh, Pokemon Madness continues! I'm seeing people are selling their LEs for $20,000 instantly! This is maybe the biggest Stern LE launch of all time. It is, I think, going to be maybe the best-selling freaking Stern machine of all time. Is there anything that can stop the excitement and the hype around this game, which has maybe five shots, a callback to Junkyard? You know, there's not many mechs in it, and yet here we are. If you listen to the Loser Kid Pinball Podcast interview of the team that made this game, I don't know whether you're a Pokemon fan or not. If you just like pinball and you want to see the hobby we love create something that gets more people into pinball, how would you not love what this company has done? with this game. They went and got a license that is almost impossible to get. They made the game in a way that was the only way you could do it. I know there's people out there that if you're a diehard Pokemon fanatic, it doesn't have some of the stuff from the show that you love. It doesn't have Ash. It doesn't have what Jesse and James. It doesn't have the people that are from the original sort of episodes, it goes to like season 10, you know, like season 10. That's crazy, right? If you're going to make Transformers, I mean, luckily for Transformers, there was only like three seasons of the show, season 10. So it's missing some stuff that the diehard Pokemon fans would love to see. But that being said, OMG, what a week for Stern Pinball. It hasn't even been a week. I have to pinch myself and remind myself that this game was revealed to the world on Friday. It is only Monday and they're all gone. They were all spoken for immediately. And here we are. Okay, so let's talk about what's happening right now with this game and what this game is going to do to pinball in what I've been saying is going to be the greatest year in the history of pinball. and man oh man oh man I think that headline of the moment is simply this Stern is back Stern is back baby like they are back this company's been taking lashes not just for me from everybody and rightfully so people all of our indictments around the Stern decision making over the last few years the overpriced games this and that this and that now how can you with a straight face say that Stern is charging too much for Pokemon LE at 13 with what's in the game when people are willing to put $20,000 on the table. I'm here to tell you right now, if you have a Pokemon LE, I mean this when I say $20,000 is not the ceiling. If you look at how many people in the world are into this IP, it is a $220 billion property. This thing is going to go crazy, people. I mean it. It's going to go like Supreme crazy. Supreme is a garbage game. And look how crazy that thing went. The Pokemon collectors are insane. I think Logan Paul just sold his card. I mean, it's a little bit money laundering. He sold it to a friend for like $16 million. But it doesn't hurt that we see Pokemon in the national global news around the world today. All right, you're not going to see that with Winchester's Mystery House. Even if the actual Winchester Mystery House burned down this weekend, you would not see the world covering it. Pokemon is just so, so big. And I think it's shocking a lot of the cargo short, curmudgeon-y old men on Pinside that think this hobby belongs to them. It's not yours. It's not mine. It's everybody's. A pinball machine is a toy that is meant to make people happy. When you fell in love with pinball, you were most likely a younger child. And now think about the millions and millions, well, probably more like thousands of kids out there in the world that are going to want to play this game because they love Pokemon and it's going to be their gateway into the hobby we love. All you got to do is go on Pinside. Look at the amount of people on there now since Friday that only have like three to 10 posts. They're brand new. This is what we need. New people in the hobby. We don't need any more of these like alcoholic men with like 30,000 posts that are like addicted to that website. We need new energy. We need good vibes. And man, Stern is back. The vibes are so good around this game. The conversations with Jack and George and Seth everybody is like in a good mood And this is my thing You might be saying Kaneda now you a stern shill Now you know boys no what I doing is just feeding off of the positive energy. It's not just me saying this. It's everything out there. Everyone is so excited about this game. And I've talked to people that are very, very, very critical of games and layouts and designs. And they've jumped on this game and they said, Kaneda, it's really kind of awesome. It's so much fun. And for those of you out there that think you need 12 shots to have fun instead of five, I mean, come on, come on. You don't need that many shots to have a great time. And when you listen to the team and how they've designed this game. It's going to be something that everybody can enjoy shooting, but they're going to have a ton of stuff in it that you're going to have to be a good pinball player to get to. It's going to be the best of both worlds. Q Hannah Montana, baby. Because this is what we need more of. You know, I don't need like Keith P. Johnson walking into the room with Avatar and handing me a diner menu that's like 15 feet long about the rule sets. You hit each shot twice and it starts something. That's how Batman 66 is laid out. And no one's complaining that Batman 66 isn't an amazing pinball machine to play. And so I think this team is going to make the game deep. I think they're going to make it approachable, the most used word ever, and callback. This is a callback to Junkyard. This is a callback. I don't even know. I've never heard the word callback used so many times in my life that I have this week listening to my buddy Jack Danger. But here's the thing. This is going to show everybody out there that you don't have to go crazy to make a fun pinball experience. when they start talking about how this game is taking inspiration from Monster Bash and from Attack from Mars and Medieval Madness. Like, is that a bad thing? Like, we are talking about some of the greatest pinball machines of all time. So yeah, this game is a simpler approach, but you gotta remember, Stern isn't just making this. They've got everything else. If you want a game with more complex layouts, you've got Godzilla, you've got Jurassic Park, you've got Foo Fighters, You got X-Men. You can go on and on and on. Remember, this is not it. These guys are going to make Transformers G1 in four months. It's going to be a crazy year for Stern Pinball. You know, Sonic the Hedgehog is going to be insane, baby. And then we're going to get Back to the Future. We're going to get Goonies. We got all this stuff baking. I'm hearing Chris Turner's going to come out with something exciting. I'll believe it when I see it. We know that American Pinball's got to now raise the bar of what they can do. I mean, imagine if you're American Pinball. You've got to come out now and release a game around $10,000 that competes with stuff like this. But here's my point for each and every one of you. You should embrace this level of love and positivity with this hobby. You know, when I heard that Zombie Yeti and his daughter, they're the ones that art directed and laid out the art in Pokemon. and how hard it was to take all the assets that the Pokemon company gave them and to like lay it out so it looks like a pinball machine that was designed from the ground up. They did a phenomenal job. I reached out to Zombie Eddie. I said, congratulations. And I said, this is how it should be, man. The LEs should look so much better than the premiums and the pros. I did not hear back from him. I'm wondering if he still thinks I ruined his life, but I bet he's going to come back to. This is the kind of game that is going to change the energy over at Stern. That company has been demoralized for like four years. It's been a toxic work environment. This is the kind of thing that's going to inject the right kind of momentum for everybody over there. And I think as a pinball fan, we all should appreciate that. So let's get back to this LD though. And I'm not even joking when I say this. I think this thing is going to hit around like $30,000 and who knows, man. And I'm not just making this stuff up, people. I'm not making it up. If you have one, I wouldn't even let one go right now. Even if you want to scalp it, I'm being honest. Now's not the time to scalp. This thing is only going to be $750 forever. It is so much nicer than the pro and the premium. When I keep hearing people say like, yeah, well, you know, it's not that much different. It's just the artwork. Guys, wake the F up. Every single Stern LE, except for like Batman, has always just been different art. So when you're saying it's not worth it because it's always been that, and I get that the difference used to be like $1,500. Now it's $3,500. But can you argue with Stern strategy here They could have easily made what like of these which is the number of Pokemon The fact that they only made 750 Pokemon LEs when they made 1 John Wicks and 1,000 Venoms. Gang, this is going to go through the roof. This game's price is going to go to the moon. And for those of you out there saying, Kaneda, you're just pumping and dumping this game, I'm gonna laugh my ass off in like six weeks when my LE for Killian gets set up inside this household. Guns and Roses will be picked up. It will be stored at Automated or somewhere else in the world. And Pokemon LE is gonna be in this house. And I love it. I think I might change the whole room into a Pokemon inspired room. If you can tell by now, I have a very addictive personality. I get into something and I go all the way in, baby. I got my King Ice Charizard necklace coming. I'm looking at some Pokemon clothing. I love it. I love the energy that this property has. I'm so sick of the negative, toxic world out there that makes everybody complain. That's so divisive. It's like Pokemon brings everybody together. The main theme of this show is friendship. What is the thing that makes pinball exciting? The friendships we've made around the hobby. And you put these things together in a bright, colorful game that's fun to play. And all of us are going to be talking about how we collect different Pokemon here and there. And the plans they have for this game are insane. This is just the beginning. and if you think about this is why this game is going to go through the roof you know you've got all of these executives around the world whose kids love pokemon and they want to put the machine in their home and imagine you're making a few million dollars a year and you just learn about this game in like six months and they're like well the le's are all spoken for and you're pulling in like fifty thousand dollars a paycheck and you want to make your kid happy baby the sky's the limit. Just don't even sell these things yet. People don't even sell them. And some of you out there that are like, well, Winchester is going to be worth more than Pokemon. I'm here to tell you right now, I am not saying Winchester is not going to hold value. It is. People are getting 20 grand for Winchester right now. But in the long run, I don't care what you think, what you say. There is no way that Winchester's Mystery House will hold more value than Pokemon Limited Edition by the Stern Pinball Company. I love that you can't call it like Pokemon Pinball. Did you hear George Gomez try to like explain the legal way to say it because there was an old Pokemon pinball game? He's like, it's Pokemon by the Stern Pinball Company. It's a pinball podcast by Kaneda. It's not Kaneda's pinball podcast. We cannot say that. But anyway, look, this has been a crazy week in pinball. It's almost been like exhausting. I'm exhausted yelling about this game, but I'm so damn happy. I'm waking up and every day now Killian's watching Pokemon. I'm sitting next to him watching Pokemon. I'm dreaming of Pokemon. It's gotten under my skin. I love it so damn much. And I just know that Pokemon and Sonic are going to do two things to this hobby that we haven't seen before. They're just really cute, adorable IPs from Japan. And I think this is going to wake up a lot of people out there that we've had the same types of themes over and over again. People keep telling me like, oh man, Chris Turner is going to release Whitewater 2. Okay. And I'm just like, hard stop. Whitewater 2. That's not what we want. I would much rather have something like Ghost in the Shell. Go get another anime property. Go get Akira. Go get something else. I mean it. It's like this notion that we should just keep recycling and remaking the stuff that has already come out in pinball is silly. It's silly. What we need is stuff like Ratatouille, baby. Stuff like Up. Stuff like Frozen. K-pop Demon Hunters. The Lion King. If Seth and Company can really open the door to some of those animated Disney movies, and if other companies out there can bring some of the anime from Japan and some of the video game characters we love, we want more of this. I mean, the people are craving for a Super Mario game. Sonic is going to be insane. I think my friend Leonard Abbas is listening to Canada's Pinball Podcast. Leonard, what's up, brother? I love Brett. You know, what a good family, man. I've sat down with that family, an amazing family to sit down and hear their strategy. And what's great about Sonic is like, you're not going to have to go nuts to get a Sonic CE. They're going to make as many as people want. And trust me, when you put Sonic CE next to Pokemon, yes, it's going to make Pokemon look like a $3,000 item, but that's not going to change the fact that there's only 750 Pokemon LEs forever in the world And for those of you out there who don understand it all about that That is what collectability is all about It's just a different variation. Every Pokemon card is the same size, but some of them have an illustrator card and some of them are just generic. And so the variations are what drive the value. And the Pokemon company did not want, you know, Stern to individually name games after each character because they didn't want that to like make people disappointed. I think it was the right move. And so everyone who gets an LE, you've got one of 750 of something that's going to be very, very special forever. Now, if you didn't get an LE, which is everybody else, this game still looks awesome. I love the look of the premium and the pro, I love that the pro still has like the main stuff. Like usually they yank out the main mech. I still think the premium, I would want the magnet. I would want some of the other stuff in the game, but you're still going to have so much fun. And man, this pro is just going to kill on location, which is great. It's great. It's like, how many people do you know when you try to invite them over to play pinball, they just can't get into these machines. It's just like too much going on. There's too much to explain. But this is going to be a game where like every time they play it, you know, someone's going to see that meowth like balloon come down and have fun bashing in and have some stuff go on. And it's going to be great. They're going to get the theme song and they're going to have a good time. Where I think this game is just going to kill, kill, kill is like a year from now when this code is fully flushed out. I also think this is going to be the kind of game because Stern's going to see this. If the most people ever buy this game, I think this could be Stern's best-selling game ever. If Stern knows that we've got like 15,000 people with Pokemon, I think they're going to keep adding stuff to it. I don't think this is a game that they're just going to say like we're at 1.0 and we're done. I think they're going to really use this as a vehicle to create pinball fun for years to come. It's going to be amazing. It's going to be the gateway for so much excitement and positivity in this hobby. So I just want to implore each and every one of you. Let's have fun with this. I'm having fun seeing how high the price is going to go. I'm going to have so much fun playing with Killian. And it's so awesome seeing all of this excitement because it's just not going to stop this year. It's not like in four months we're going to get Transformers and we're going to get freaking Sonic. It's just going to keep going and going. The hard part for each and every one of us is making enough money and finding enough room to put all of these exciting games into our collections. And I think the biggest thing for a lot of you guys out there, and I mean this, you might want to start selling some of the old stuff. And that's going to be the hard thing, man, is like, I think the old stuff, the prices are going to crash. And I mean, like, even like the John Wick and Venom LEs of the world, those things are going to crash down to like 6,500. There's just, everyone's just going to start getting rid of stuff. I mean it. And the thing that's going to make people own stuff is really themes that you love or games that just create those moments of magic that keep you coming back for more. That's really the most important thing. There's so many games out there where like even the theme you don't love, but maybe the gameplay and the moments are what keep you coming back. And it's still a little too early to know if this game will have it. But again, listening to what the team has planned for this game and the amount of excitement around it. and hearing from objective people that have played it, I think this thing has all of the boxes checked to become one of the most exciting modern pinball machines of all time. And I think Stern needed it. We knew Stern needed it. Look, even though I was saying this game was gonna be a little bit more basic and pedestrian, and it is, like, I'm not like here to tell you, oh man, it's loaded. It's not loaded. It's not loaded with mechs, but it's loaded with charm. It's loaded with personality. And most importantly, it's loaded with love. I know this sounds corny, but you know you love Kaneda. I'm going to start turning it into like the brother love of pinball podcasting. I love you guys. Thank you for your subscriptions. Ed Ed Robertson, I'm going to give you so much Pokemon content this week. And we know you're going to take that, Ellie. I'm the road, baby. Kaneda out. Best of both worlds, chill it out, take it slow, then you'll rock out the show. You get the best of both worlds, mix it all together and you know that it's the best. You get the best of both worlds, without the shades in the hair, you can go anywhere. You get the best of both worlds, mix it all together, oh yeah. It's so much better cause you know you got the best of both worlds It's wild that this didn't already exist as a pinball machine because they do have a history with pinball.