Episode 749: "Scooby Sales Day Thoughts"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 25s·analyzed·Dec 9, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Scooby-Doo will allocate rather than sell-out, positioning it as value leader vs. Stern/JJP.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Scooby-Doo's launch day (10 a.m. CST sale) and predicts it will not sell out in a single day but will allocate all 1,969 units across distributors over time. He argues the game represents exceptional value compared to Stern's James Bond and Jersey Jack's Toy Story, and speculates it could win Game of the Year at the TWIPYs as a community message against perceived greed from larger manufacturers. He criticizes American Pinball's lack of progress and warns against non-refundable deposits without seeing finished code.

Key Claims

Scooby-Doo will not sell out in one day but will allocate all 1,969 units to distributors over the next two years
medium confidence · Kaneda, Episode 749, discussing sale mechanics and production timeline
Scooby-Doo collector's edition is 50% cheaper than Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story collector's edition
medium confidence · Kaneda, comparing pricing across manufacturers
James Bond is more than 30% more expensive than Scooby-Doo
medium confidence · Kaneda, price comparison analysis
Scooby-Doo could win Game of the Year at the TWIPYs because the community wants to send a message to Stern and JJP about perceived greed
low confidence · Kaneda speculation on TWIPPY voting dynamics
Rush Pinball arguably deserves Game of the Year but music pins are divisive
low confidence · Kaneda opinion on competitive titles
American Pinball did not complete production of Legends of Valhalla and has gone radio silent
medium confidence · Kaneda criticism of American Pinball's 2023 performance
An upcoming Keith Elwin pin from Stern will have only 500 units, less content than Scooby-Doo, and higher pricing
low confidence · Kaneda predicting announcement of unrevealed Stern title
Scooby-Doo will appear on location by end of month/early January and at TPF
medium confidence · Kaneda's production timeline expectations

Notable Quotes

“They are not going to find 1,969 people to give non-refundable deposits today. They're definitely going to sell some and they're definitely going to sell some directly to customers. And distributors are definitely going to find people who take their money now because these people want to get the game earlier on.”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Core thesis on sale mechanics and allocation strategy
“I think what's going to happen today is I think they are going to say they sold out. But in reality, what it's going to be is this. They are going to allocate all of these games to all of the different distributors around the world who carry spooky pinball machines.”
Kaneda @ ~12:30 — Prediction on marketing messaging vs. actual inventory distribution
“I don't think Spooky Pinball is making a better machine than JJP or Stern right now, but the price is right, the theme is right, the passion is there.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Balanced assessment of Spooky's competitive positioning on value, not quality
“When Stern launches a game, they just act like they're always better than us. They don't really hang out with the community. They don't do much for people. They don't talk to us.”
Kaneda @ ~17:30 — Critique of Stern's community engagement strategy
“I think the pinball community wants to send a message to Stern and JJP that they are not happy that those two companies have become very greedy.”
Kaneda @ ~32:00 — Speculation on TWIPPY voting as market signal
“Scooby-Doo is going to be more fun, have more in it, and be like a third of the price. And I think it's going to backfire. And I think Stern has totally misread the room.”
Kaneda @ ~36:00 — Prediction of negative market reception for unrevealed Keith Elwin pin
“The problem with Jersey Jack and Stern, they tried to price everything now like it's a grail pin. They increased the volume so much and the price so much that nothing they make now feels special.”
Kaneda — Core market critique of pricing strategy diluting collectibility

Entities

KanedapersonSpooky PinballcompanyScooby-DoogameStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany American PinballcompanyZach MinneypersonJoe Newhartperson

Signals

?
product_strategy: Scooby-Doo positioned as 50% cheaper than JJP Toy Story CE and ~67% of Stern James Bond pricing; positioned as value leader
high · Kaneda: 'This collector's edition that comes loaded with a lot of fun stuff, is 50% cheaper than Jersey Jack Pinball's collector's edition of Toy Story' and 'James Bond is more than 30% more money than Scooby-Doo'
$
market_signal: Kaneda predicts secondary market sales of Halloween, Ultraman, and Toy Story 4 will increase as Scooby-Doo launches; Toy Story 4 prices now trading below Scooby-Doo MSRP
medium · Kaneda: 'I think you're going to see a lot of Halloweens and Ultramans go up for sale once this machine starts shipping' and 'If you want a Toy Story, Toy Story 4s are about to sell for less money than Scooby-Doo'
~
sentiment_shift: Community shifting away from Stern and Jersey Jack toward Spooky Pinball due to perceived greed in pricing; potential Game of the Year vote as protest signal
medium · Kaneda: 'I think the pinball community wants to send a message to Stern and JJP that they are not happy that those two companies have become very greedy' and 'Scooby-Doo has become our new point of reference on how we're looking at value'
?
product_concern: Significant uncertainty about Scooby-Doo's code implementation, custom callouts integration, and final gameplay feel despite strong theme and physical design
high · Kaneda: 'We have not seen that much of this game. We have not seen much gameplay. We have not seen much of the code' and 'We still don't know a lot about this game. What we do know is exciting, but what we don't know could be a deal breaker'
?

Topics

Scooby-Doo sales and allocation strategyprimaryPricing and value comparison across manufacturersprimaryGame of the Year voting and community sentimentprimaryStern vs. Spooky vs. Jersey Jack competitive positioningprimaryAmerican Pinball's production and market challengessecondaryNon-refundable deposits and pre-order risksecondarySecondary market dynamics and grail pinssecondaryCommunity engagement and manufacturer relationshipsmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.62)— Positive toward Spooky Pinball's approach, pricing, and value proposition; critical of Stern and Jersey Jack's perceived greed and pricing strategy; cautiously optimistic about Scooby-Doo but warns against FOMO-driven pre-orders; pessimistic about American Pinball's direction; skeptical of unrevealed Keith Elwin pin's reception

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.052

Rip cake, soft tail, standing in line to see the show tonight I never lied on heavy clothes By the way I tried to stay, I'd be there waiting for Oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh Ah, well, today's the day. Hey, Spooky Pinball's Scooby-Doo goes on sale at 10 a.m. Central Standard Time, which is 11 o'clock my time. And here's the question everyone's wondering. Will this game sell out in one day? We're going to talk about that. I'm going to talk about how I think this game might actually be voted the game of the year at the Twippies. I'm going to explain why I think it might sneak in that victory. I think it's going to win for best art package. I think there's going to be a lot of real positive momentum that this game brings into the pinball world. But I also want to say, but there is a caveat. We have not seen that much of this game. We have not seen much gameplay. We have not seen much of the code and how that's going to be integrated into the machine itself. We don't know how they're going to organize 4,000 custom call outs and all the different footage from the Scooby-Doo show. But look, I think what this game has done, and I think the reason why this game is landing with a lot of enthusiasm, and I know some of you guys out there are like, but Kaneda, we haven't played the game, and it looks like all of the shots disappear under that monster upper playfield. But let me just tell you guys something. I know that you might lose track of the ball, but you're going to learn how the game works and you will adjust how you play the game. Like if you know that when I shoot this shot, it's going to return to this like wire form or go around this orbit. You're going to learn how the game works. Now look, this game is all going to come down to code. Like everybody knows that. Like the game looks like it's got a nice fan layout. It looks like it has a fun upper play field with the Magna Hand toy guy up there. Not even sure who that is in the Scooby-Doo universe. But this game looks like it's going to be at least an enjoyable game to flip because the shots are not going to be a brick fest. Look, and coming off of Halloween in Ultraman, we all said that, like, spooky pinball needed to come out with something that reversed the criminal designs that happened on those two games. And I think this is the right way to go. You go with a fan layout. You go with what people enjoy shooting. And I've talked to people who have played this game. I won't name names because they get really nervous. And some of these people are getting a paycheck from spooky pinball. I've talked to people who've played this game. And they said it's a big improvement over Halloween and Ultraman. Now, look, I was talking to someone who said, look, Halloween prices are going up. Look, I think you're going to see a lot of Halloweens and Ultramans go up for sale once this machine starts shipping to customers. I also think if you bought a TNA for over $9,000, think about how silly those TNA 2.0 buyers feel right now. It was a smart move by Spooky to hook 250 people for over $9,000 for a game that has basically nothing in it. And now this game is just a tad more money. And look at all of the stuff that's in Scooby-Doo next to TNA. Not to mention it's actually a licensed theme property. Anyway, so here's the deal about today though. The big speculation, will Scooby-Doo sell out today? In one hour, someone just called me and said, it's going to sell out in one hour, Kaneda. Here's the truth. I don't think this game is going to sell out today. I think this game is going to sell through today. And what I mean by that is this. They are not going to find 1,969 people to give non-refundable deposits today. They're definitely going to sell some and they're definitely going to sell some directly to customers. And distributors are definitely going to find people who take their money now because these people want to get the game earlier on. But here's the thing. There 1 of these So what is going to happen today is this They will absolutely sell hundreds of these games Maybe even a thousand And let just say that If Spooky sells a thousand in one day of Scooby-Doos, there's still 969 more of them available. So I think what's going to happen today is I think they are going to say they sold out. But in reality, what it's going to be is this. They are going to allocate all of these games to all of the different distributors around the world who carry spooky pinball machines. I mean, we've got Zach Manny is now a distributor for spooky pinball. And, you know, if you're going to buy yours, please buy yours from Joe Newhart at Pinball Star. He's an incredible guy and he'll take care of you. But, of course, like Zach will take care of you if you buy from Flip N Out Pinball. And there's also a list of other distributors where you can get spooky games. And so they're absolutely going to allocate all of these games because here's the thing. They're making these games for the next two years. And if you're a distributor, you know that this title is a hot title right now. You know Scooby-Doo is a theme that people love. It's nostalgic. It's been around for, shoot, 50 years. And so you don't have to worry about finding people who love Scooby-Doo, right? And so you're going to want to have inventory of Scooby-Doo over the next couple of years. And also, let's just tackle the elephant in the room. This game, this collector's edition that comes loaded with a lot of fun stuff, is 50% cheaper than Jersey Jack Pinball's collector's edition of Toy Story. And I would argue, if you're a Scooby-Doo fan and you're looking down at this game, you're very happy. It's going to put a smile on your face. if you're a Toy Story fanatic like I am you look down at Toy Story and you're not happy you're confused you're like what is going on here this is not Andy's room this is not the property I love it's got a bunch of cake toppers and an LCD screen and I think for that reason they're looking at this spooky game like thank you spooky pinball you didn't really raise your prices and you put much more into the game and then we've got Stern on the same level with James Bond they've increased their prices. James Bond is more than 30% more money than Scooby-Doo. Now look, it's James Bond, it's George Gomez, it's got a bunch of assets. And let's not fool ourselves, okay? Let's not fool ourselves. I don't think Spooky Pinball is making a better machine than JJP or Stern right now, but the price is right, the theme is right, the passion is there. And I mean it when I say it, like this company, at least they're in it with us, right? When Stern launches a game, they just act like they're always better than us. They don't really hang out with the community. They don't do much for people. They don't talk to us. They're not in the threads with us. They're not really answering everybody's questions. They're basically just saying like, here it is. We know you're going to buy it because we're Stern and everything we do is great. And then Jersey Jack, when they launched Toy Story, they're like, we're going to tell you the best way to secure a chance at getting one of our collector's editions as if they knew it was a magical game and then they hoodwinked everybody and the game wasn't magical and the game was fun but it was overpriced and I think the way spooky is going about it is the right way to go about it you know the feel-good vibes that this like family-run company has been creating within the pinball community but this game feels like the right game at the right time with the right amount in it at the right price now there's still so much about this game we don't know and that's the other reason why I don't think it sells out today is I think a lot of people out there are simply saying it looks really cool, great effort, spooky. I don't know enough to say I have to own it right now. I don't like non-refundable deposits. So I'm just going to wait and see. And I think wait and see is the most commonsensical thing anyone can do right now. For us to wait and see if the games are any good, you're going to need some initial buyers. You're going to need some early adopters and there absolutely are going to be those people. Look, and the good news is, is like Spooky Pinball is going to start making these games like immediately. So we're going to see Scooby-Doo's on location probably end of this month, early January. And then we absolutely going to be able to play this game come TPF You absolutely going to be able to play this game at your local operator sometime in the near future And when that day happens I still think you're easily going to be able to call up a distributor and find a Scooby-Doo for MSRP. And I think it's going to be a win-win-win for everybody. It's going to be a win for Spooky. They will sell every single one of these games. It's going to be a win for distributors because they're going to have inventory that they know people are going to want. And it's going to be a win for the pinball community because you're not going to have to buy immediately and lock in your non-refundable deposit. You're going to be able to play the game, make sure it's good, make sure you like what they did with the code, make sure you enjoy the way the game shoots. And if you want one, you're going to be able to get one. And there's not going to be FOMO with 1969, of which 1968 are going to be ordered as collector's editions. I mean, have you seen the list of what's in a collector's edition? Why would you buy something that's not the collector's edition? I mean, they have loaded this thing up and it's not that much more money. Now, I think people will also probably add the butter cabinet, which makes it even more expensive, but it's totally worth it. I mean, I love the butter cabinet. Now, look, here's the other interesting thing. This thing is going to come out right when eligibility happens for best game of the year this week in pinball. Now, this is going to be interesting because Twippy voting opens up in January. This game will be eligible. Now, look, Rush Pinball is probably and arguably the game that deserves to win game of the year because it's been out the whole year. People have played it. People enjoy it. It's got a lot in it. Now, look, though, Rush is not the most popular theme, you know, and music pins in general are very divisive. Now, look, I'm not saying Scooby-Doo is like the mainstream hit everyone's been waiting for. But here is why I think Scooby-Doo could win as game of the year, because I think the pinball community wants to send a message to Stern and JJP that they are not happy that those two companies have become very greedy. I think the community in general is over it. I think they were unsatisfied with Toy Story. And I think we were heavily unsatisfied with the fumbled launch that is now James Bond. And I think it's only going to get worse when they reveal this Keith Elwin pin, which is going to have much less in it than Scooby-Doo. This is a bad time for Stern because they're going to come out with this Elwin pin, only 500 units. Like they're really going to play the FOMO card to the 10th degree. And then they're going to ask so much more money than Scooby-Doo. And Scooby-Doo is going to be more fun, have more in it, and be like a third of the price. And I think it's going to backfire. And I think Stern has totally misread the room. And they're killing their own golden goose. I think Jersey Jack has killed themselves as well with their new pricing model. And it's not going to work. It's just not going to work. And this is why competition is so important in any industry, because now we have options and now we can decide who to support based upon whether or not we think we're getting the value. I've also said it, the big loser this year, the biggest loser in all of pinball, because they're not making any money, they're not doing really any sales, is what the heck is American pinball doing? What did they actually accomplish this year? They didn't even make all of the Legends of Valhalla. I don't know what's going on over there. They're clearly having supply issues, but they've gone radio silent. And now they waited too long. And Spooky Pinball has shuffled in with Scooby-Doo and is going to lock in so many sales. And I'm telling you right now, I think most pinball people now are going to buy one to two games a year and that's it. And there's only so many thousands of buyers out there that will commit. And again like with all these companies releasing new in product and there are so many games for sale on the used market that you already know are great pinball machines you see why every single new in box game now moving forward needs to be great It needs to be perceived by the community as being incredible value and something that you really feel excited about unboxing. Otherwise, you're just going to skip it. You're just going to let it go. And there's no room anymore in this modern pinball world for games like Legends of Valhalla unless your goal is to put those kinds of machines on location. And the most annoying phrase of 2022, it kills on location. It kills on location. I get it. Toy Story 4 kills on location. I get it. It doesn't change my mind on the machine. And 90% of us are not operators. As a home use game, I don't understand why you would spend that much money on it. But the good news is this. If you want a Toy Story, Toy Story 4s are about to sell for less money than Scooby-Doo. Okay. And that says something about the pinball marketplace that it will ultimately decide whether or not you hold your value or you lose your value. Everybody look, it's Friday. It's going to be fun to see like how this game sells today. It's going to be fun to see people, you know, congratulate themselves for getting one. I do think they're going to say they sold out and that they allocated them to all the distributors because then the distributors are going to be like, well, it's sold out, but we have a few for sale. I think you're going to see a lot of that. And I'm just happy for my distro friends that they're getting a game that people are excited about where the price is right. But again, don't get burned by the non-refundable. We still don't know a lot about this game. What we do know is exciting, but what we don't know could be a deal breaker. So me personally, my advice to you is I would just wait and see. I think it's the fair thing to do. And I think if you want one and this game makes you happy, you're going to be able to get one. And that's what pinball needs to transform into. I still think there's always going to be room for high end collectible games that are always sought after. There's always going to be a market for Elvira 40th, Batman SLEs, you know, Royal Editions of Medieval Madness. And that's okay. Like you want to have some of those grail games. The problem with Jersey Jack and Stern, they tried to price everything now like it's a grail pin. They increased the volume so much and the price so much that nothing they make now feels special. And this Elwynn pin, mark my words, we're one week away from the Elwynn pin. It is going to go down like a lead balloon once people realize that it is a greedy move. They waited too long to show it. Scooby-Doo has become our new point of reference on how we're looking at value and who's giving us what for how much money. And if they try to price gouge this Elwynn pin, it's going to be a bloodbath how people respond to it. Okay, everybody, thank you for being a member of Canada's Pinball Podcast. Let me give a quick shout out to our new club members, Arzo, Butts McGillicuddy, I mean it, Butts McGillicuddy, Dappyman, Brett G, Patrick O, No Skills, Robert L, REJ, Thomas T, Trey K, and then we've got a lot of other people. And welcome back, Iceman, to the show. He rejoined the show. Doug, welcome back to the show. Everybody, enjoy the World Cup today. We'll talk to you soon. And don't forget, Saturday morning spectacular. Tomorrow, 10 o'clock, Eastern Standard Time. Bring your stars, people. Later. Heavy blow By the way I tried to say I'd be there Waiting for Danny the girl to sing a song to me Beneath the marquee of a store By the way I tried to say I know you From before Standing in line to see the show tonight I'd never light on heavy glow By the way I tried to say I'd be there Waiting for