Episode 1095: "First Glimpse of Potter"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 24s·analyzed·May 31, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.038

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Harry Potter will underwhelm and criticizes JJP's marketing strategy and Pinball Brothers' timing.

Summary

Kaneda expresses strong skepticism about Jersey Jack Pinball's Harry Potter reveal strategy, criticizing the first imagery as low-quality Photoshop artwork appearing as an advertisement in Avatar LE rather than a proper announcement. He predicts the game will underwhelm and compares it unfavorably to Godfather 2.0, while simultaneously blasting Pinball Brothers for poor marketing strategy ahead of Harry Potter's release, arguing they should have leveraged Predator's reveal before the Potter launch absorbs market demand.

Key Claims

Harry Potter's first images are appearing as advertisements within Avatar Limited Edition machines
high confidence · Kaneda directly observes and describes the advertisement placement
The Harry Potter artwork appears to be Photoshop drag-and-drop quality
medium confidence · Kaneda's visual assessment of the revealed images; subjective opinion based on observation
Kaneda predicts Harry Potter will be mediocre and similar to Godfather 2.0 rather than Wizard of Oz or Pirates of the Caribbean
low confidence · Speculation made before seeing the full game; explicitly stated as prediction despite not having seen the game
Jersey Jack Pinball has made poor business decisions for 4-7 (possibly up to 12) years in a row
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion based on assessment of Avatar LE, Godfather, Toy Story 4, and other JJP releases
Jack Danger is the best designer in pinball, better than Keith Elwin
low confidence · Kaneda's subjective opinion comparing Foo Fighters and X-Men to Elwin's portfolio
Pokemon pinball is rumored to be designed by Keith Elwin, not Jack Danger
low confidence · Rumor from conversation with Jason; Kaneda expresses skepticism about why a 53-year-old would be into Pokemon
King Kong Limited Edition sales are disappointing and haven't sold out
medium confidence · Kaneda references being in threads discussing King Kong sales; frames it as indicative of weak demand
Stern is rumored to be making only 750 units of Jaws 50th Anniversary edition
low confidence · Unverified rumor; Kaneda expresses skepticism and believes it contradicts George Gomez's stated policy
George Gomez stated Stern will never make another Limited Edition of a game that already had a Limited Edition
medium confidence · Kaneda claims this was said privately; policy interpretation based on Godzilla 70th precedent

Notable Quotes

“I think this game is going to be the kiss of death for Jersey Jack Pinball.”
Kaneda @ Early in episode — Core thesis of negative prediction about Harry Potter's impact on JJP's reputation
“This is like weird for me to say this because some people are proclaiming this to be the second coming of pinball... but it's just the way it goes.”
Kaneda @ Opening segment — Establishes Kaneda's contrarian stance against community hype
“The first time we're going to see the cabinet artwork of the game is via an in-game advertisement in Avatar Limited Edition. This is what you've been waiting 12 years for, Jersey Jack Pinball.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Criticizes marketing strategy as underwhelming for a 12-year-anticipated title
“I think the best designer in all of pinball right now is Jack Danger. Without a doubt, without a doubt... Jack Danger's two games, Foo Fighters and X-Men, to me, from a design and layout standpoint, are far more interesting than anything Keith Elwin has done.”
Kaneda @ Mid-to-late episode — Major assertion about competitive designer rankings; controversial opinion
“How stupid can you be to not get out in front of Harry Potter? ...Idiotic. These guys are idiotic. It is the worst move ever.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode (Pinball Brothers criticism) — Harsh criticism of Pinball Brothers' marketing timing and strategy
“I reached out to Pinball Brothers... Can you give me something to get my audience excited about your Predator game. And you know what? No email back. No email back.”
Kaneda @ Late mid-episode — Personal anecdote suggesting poor communication/engagement from Pinball Brothers
“If the Avatar Limited Edition doesn't sell out, then you're in for a world of hurt. If you bought an Avatar Limited Edition and if you think your Premium Edition is going to hold value, you're in for a world of hurt.”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Warning about Avatar LE value retention as indicator of game quality/demand

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyHarry Potter PinballgameAvatar Limited EditiongamePinball Brotherscompany Predatorgame Kanedaperson George Gomezperson

Signals

?
business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball characterized as lacking creative direction and marketing sophistication despite being long-established
medium · Kaneda states 'this company is kind of rudderless, that doesn't really get it' and questions how they can make good decisions now after 4-7 years of poor ones
?
community_signal: Pinball Brothers unresponsive to media outreach regarding Predator game publicity
high · Kaneda states he 'reached out to Pinball Brothers' requesting exclusive content and received 'No email back. No email back.'
?
competitive_signal: Pinball Brothers Predator release timing strategy criticized as missing window before Harry Potter market saturation
high · Kaneda explicitly criticizes them for waiting too long and not marketing Predator ahead of Potter launch; characterizes strategy as 'idiotic'
?
licensing_signal: Harry Potter licensing relationship characterized as difficult for Jersey Jack Pinball; may have deterred Stern Pinball from pursuing license
low · Kaneda speculates 'the license holder is really hard to work with and this might be why Stern Pinball didn't want to work with Warner Brothers on this title'
$
market_signal: King Kong Limited Edition not selling out signals weak demand and potential value retention issues
medium · Kaneda notes LE sales have not sold out, characterizes this as 'embarrassing' and 'indicative of overall demand for the game'

Topics

Harry Potter Pinball reveal strategy and marketingprimaryJersey Jack Pinball business decisions and creative directionprimaryPinball designer rankings (Jack Danger vs. Keith Elwin)secondaryPinball Brothers' Predator marketing timingprimaryLimited Edition production policy and scarcity strategysecondaryKing Kong and Avatar LE sales performancesecondaryJaws 50th Anniversary production rumorssecondaryPokemon pinball designer assignment rumorsmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.78)— Kaneda expresses strong skepticism and pessimism about Harry Potter's potential, harsh criticism of Jersey Jack Pinball's marketing and business decisions, and scathing criticism of Pinball Brothers' strategy. Only bright spot is hope that designers like Eric Meucci will prove him wrong. Tone is exasperated and frustrated with industry trends.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.058

This is the first time I've heard about Nats out the studio. I found out about you. I found out about you. I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said. Oh, welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Did you think you were going to go a Friday and not get a show from Kaneda? It's almost the end of the month, May 30th, and all of us are waiting for Harry Potter. And now all of a sudden, after 10 years or 12 years of waiting for this title, we're going to see the first images of Harry Potter Pinball Cabinet as advertisements within Avatar Pinball? Is this actually how this company is doing it? I'm looking at it right now. It's a picture of Harry and the other kids and everyone's pointing wands and it looks photoshopped, drag and dropped. It doesn't look great. This is like the base level edition of the game, the $10,000 edition of the game. But I just want to say this, tired of this, these pinball companies who have been teasing us for a really long time. This is the culmination of a dream come true. And this is how Jersey Jack unveils the game for the first time in a pedestrian way. I'm just going to say this right now. And I mean this. This is like weird for me to say this because some people are proclaiming this to be the second coming of pinball. I'm going to say this right now. And I might have had a few tequila drinks in me, but it's just the way it goes on a Friday in this wealthy Connecticut town in which everybody here works in finance, can spend more money than I got on toys, watches, cars, and homes, and nobody cares about bimbo. So I'm going to say it right now. I think this game is going to be the kiss of death for Jersey Jack. And what I mean by that is this, I can see it in the artwork. It's already Photoshop drag and drop artwork. It's Photoshop drag and drop. So you think that the other versions of the game are not going to be the same sort of art look stylistically I think it is and I think this is the best they're going to be able to do with the hands being tied behind the back of this company because the license holder is really hard to work with and this might be why Stern Pinball didn't want to work with Warner Brothers on this title I think this game is going to be the kiss of death we're gonna see it in five days but i'm just gonna go out on a canada limb and say that i think when this game gets shown to the world it's not gonna be like the magic they've been conjuring up i think it's gonna be just uh you know a little bit more mediocre than you want i think this game is gonna be like godfather 2.0 more than it's gonna be like pirates of the caribbean 2.0 i don't think it's going to be Wizard of Oz 2.0. I think it's going to be more like Avatar 2.0. I think it's going to be more empty than loaded. I think it's going to have like Photoshop looking drag and drop artwork. I don't think it's going to look as good as a Franchi pin. And I think there's not going to be the level of loaded mechanical magic in this game as you want. Now, I haven't seen the game and maybe I'm feeling this way because I'm tired of this like drawn out launch of this game. This is bad marketing. The first time we're going to see the cabinet artwork of the game is via an in-game advertisement in Avatar. This is what you've been waiting 12 years for, Jersey Jack. I get we're going to get the CE version. I get we're going to get like the creme de la creme. And this is the $10,000 pro version of the game. But just something about seeing like the older Harry and everybody just pointing their wands. And it's more Photoshop drag and drop. I'm just telling you right now, if I were a betting man, I would bet that this game is going to underwhelm you. it's not gonna be the second coming of pinball and i think it's gonna be an interesting launch in five days i'm also just like is this how they wanted to launch like the first images of the game these are the first images of the game literally just popping up randomly as an advertisement in a game that nobody wanted This ad also appearing in Guns N Roses It appearing on any JJP machine that is somewhat connected to the internet This is like the teaser? This is what you're doing to get people excited? I'm going to tell you right now, the reason why I think this game is going to be mediocre is I think Jersey Jack just doesn't get it. I don't think they get it. I don't think they get how to market stuff. I don't think they have the creative leader over there like George Gomez. I keep saying George Gomez, but I even got to stop saying that. But I just don't feel like this company has anybody over there that's like, no, this isn't how we should be doing it. No, we shouldn't be putting these two lower playfields in Avatar. No, we shouldn't even be making Avatar. No, we shouldn't even be making The Godfather. No, we shouldn't even be doing only Toy Story 4. Why do we think that a company that has made bad decisions for like four to five, six, seven, you could say they've made bad decisions for 12 years in a row. Why do we feel like all of a sudden now is the time? Now is the time they're going to make everything right. They're going to nail it now. They're going to get the artwork right this time. They're going to get the code right this time. It's not going to come with some diner menu from Keith P. Johnson with 22 song notes from Avatar. This is the time they're going to get it. They're not going to have muted clips this time around. You actually think they're going to get synced up clips with all of the actors from eight movies, right? I think it's eight movies. You think they're actually going to get it now when they didn't even sync up clips from one Toy Story movie? They didn't sync up clips from two Avatar movies. Think about this for a minute, people. They didn't sync up clips from two Avatar movies, but they're going to sync up clips from eight Harry Potter movies? Are you actually delusional or do you think this is the one? Now, look, I'm being overly strident right now. I'm being overly pessimistic. And again, it's because when I see a company that is apparently supposedly has a marketing plan in place, this could not be how they wanted people to see the game or the cabinet for the first time. And yet it is. And it just goes to show, I just feel like as big as they are, as long as they've been doing this in the pinball world, it's still a company that is kind of rudderless, that doesn't really get it. And so I hope this game proves me wrong, but I'm going to tell you right now, I think in five days or whatever the hours and minutes are, I think when we finally see Harry Potter, it's going to be underwhelming. And I don't think it's going to be loaded. And I don't think they've been conjuring up the next Wizard of Oz or Pirates or Hobbit game. I think they've been conjuring up Godfather 2.0. And I hope I'm wrong. I hope in five days, whatever, 16 hours, 27 minutes, I'm doing a podcast that is like this game blew me away. Now here's the other thing. So we've got this game coming out next week and we've got pinball brothers sharing with us nothing but meme teasers of Predator. Jim Hopper's mailbox was put up yesterday, right? Jim Hopper, he wasn't killed. He was skinned alive. These guys waited too long. And I've seen the Cengiz video. He's gushing about spinners and drop targets. But how stupid can you be? I mean, just think about it for a minute. How stupid can you be to not get out in front of Harry Potter? And so what? They're just going to put up these teasers and then after Jersey Jack reveals Harry Potter, look, gang, I could be right and Harry Potter could be underwhelming. It doesn't matter. They're going to sell at least, and I mean this, this game could be terrible and they're going to sell at least 5,000 units of this game. At least. It doesn't matter. The theme is that big and then you're going to wait until all that money is absorbed by your potential buyer base and then you're going to release Predator? Idiotic. Idiotic. These guys are idiotic. It is the worst move ever And look I reached out to Pinball Brothers I like hey can you give me something to get my audience excited about your Predator game And you know what No email back No email back. So cool. Just keep putting up your stuff. You don't have a release date. And now we've got a release date for Harry Potter. And you're not going to be out in front of it. And you're going to get clobbered now. Because thousands of orders are going to go towards Harry Potter. thousands of people bought King Kong, people bought Dune, people bought all the other games, like 888 people have to pay for Evil Dead. It's just like, guys, wake up. Wake up. It's not hard. But you don't want to follow Harry Potter if you're the pinball brothers, okay? We're all there, we're all there. Now, look, I just want to say, I don't know what Harry Potter is going to be. I hope Eric kills it. I hope Eric crushes it. I really do. Because when we think about what's happening in pinball right now and who the best designers are, I'm going to say this right now. I think the best designer in pinball, the best designer in all the pinball right now, it's not Keith Elwin. It's not. He's the second best. The best designer in all of pinball right now is Jack Danger. Without a doubt, without a doubt, I've played every Keith Elwin game many, many times. And Jack Danger's two games, Foo Fighters and X-Men, to me, from a design and layout standpoint, are far more interesting than anything Keith Elwin has done. They're far more ambitious. They're far more unique. And he just hasn't had the banger themes that Keith Elwin has had. Think about it. Jack Danger got Foo Fighters and X-Men. Two themes that before they came out, nobody wanted. And Keith Elwin has had Iron Maiden, Jurassic freaking Park. He's had Avengers, Godzilla he's had Jaws and he's had King Kong they've given him way more better themes than they've ever gave Jack Danger and I'm going to tell you this right now I think Jack Danger's next game is gonna be it I mean it I don't even know what it is we all thought it was Pokemon now the rumor is is that Pokemon Naps Arcade is saying this that Pokemon is gonna be a Keith Elwin game. And apparently Keith Elwin is a big Pokemon fan. I was talking to Jason about this. I'm like, how is that even possible? I'm 48. Keith Elwin is 53. How is he into Pokemon? I'm not even into Pokemon. So he was like at an older age, like really into Pokemon in the 90s. It doesn't make any sense to me, but that's what I'm hearing. Now, I think the next game from Stern Pinball is everything. The next game from John Borg, the Star Wars pinball machine, it needs to be a hit. King Kong's not a hit. I'm in the thread. I get you guys are enjoying the pin. It's not a hit game though, guys. It's not. The LEs are still not sold out. That is embarrassing. And that is indicative of the overall demand for the game. I mean, sometimes people just forget like an LE really needs to be popular to lift the other like versions of the game. And if the LE doesn't sell out, then you're in for a world of hurt. If you a bought an LE and if you think your premium is going to hold value, you're in for a world of hurt. And especially because I'm hearing in June, we're going to get Jaws 50th. Now here's the rumor I'm hearing about Jaws 50th and this doesn't make any sense. I'm hearing Stern Pinball is only going to make 750 Jaws 50th anniversary additions. I don't believe this rumor. I'll tell you why. Because George Gomez said they would never make another le of a game that already had an le now if you make only 750 of jaw's 50th anniversary then that's an le not only that that's less machines than you made of the first version of jaws le so if they do this and again i don't think they're going to because i think they're going to stay true to their word but I nervous I think here what Stern might be feeling King Kong didn sell that well Not as well as they wanted And so now they've got this Jaws coming out. And they're like, well, Jaws was a much better seller than King Kong. And if we have a 50th anniversary edition and we make it unlimited, that's not going to create any FOMO. And so we need to somehow get that 750 times $11,000 or $10,000. Because what is it? Like $9,800 for a premium. But that's the thing. What if they actually charged $13,000 for a Jaws LE50th? And then what happens? So I know what would happen is it would sell out. Like they would sell everyone. They would also burn in the process everybody who bought a Jaws LE where they made a thousand units with the white armor. And I think what we're going to witness is a few things. I think we're going to witness if Stern is going to stay true to its word. I think we're going to witness if Stern is really in trouble because if they are in trouble and they are a wounded tiger company, then they're absolutely maybe going to make another LE of Jaws as the 50th anniversary edition. I don't think they're going to do it. I think the rumor's false. I believe George Gomez. I believe him when he said, we're never going to make another LE version of a game that already had an LE. And let me clarify what I mean by that. It doesn't just mean that you're not going to make more of the same exact version of the LE that was released. It means you're never going to make another version of the theme that is limited the way they did with Elvira, the way they did with Jurassic Park, right? You can't just change the artwork and have another LE of the game because that destroys all of the collectability for all of the additions. So I don't think they're ever going to do it again. I don't think so. I think that rumor is false, but I do think there's going to be a Jaws 50th. I think it's going to be a premium trim game. Remember, Godzilla 70th was a premium trim game. Now, Godzilla 70th was supposed to be in L.E. It was supposed to be in L.E. New version of Godzilla. George Gomez told me privately, he said, I wish you could have seen the L.E. version of Godzilla 70th with the foil trim on everything. That's how we intended the game to look. And then they couldn't do it because they just burned so many people with all of these remakes of other LEs. So I think it's going to be a really interesting six weeks. We're gonna see Harry Potter in a week. I can't wait. I know all of you can't wait. I'm sick of speculating about it. I'm sick of wondering about it. I just want to see the game. We're going to see Predator in the next six weeks. Pinball Brothers waited too long, but it's still Predator, right? I just feel like in this age demographic, you girly men out there, don't you want Predator more than Harry botter. I think so. And so we're going to get Predator, I think by June 12th, which is the day that the Predator movie came out. And it's just a lot. It's a lot of money to ask people to buy all these games. We got Dune people are buying games. We've got King Kong owners. We've got Predator. It's about to get crazy. Everybody do me a favor. Wait and see. That is going to be who wins in all of this. Wait to see these games. Pull the trigger when you know you want it. Canadas Pinball Podcast, thank you for being a member. The month is about to come to an end, and let me tell you, the next two months are going to be crazy. If you're not getting three shows a week right now, it's because there's not a lot to talk about. I'm not going to get on here and complain about tariffs and what's going to happen to Alice owners. We're going to talk all about this stuff. But trust me, next week, it's going to be interesting. Kaneda out.