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Episode 677: "A Few Pinball Predictions"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 21s·analyzed·May 12, 2022
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Market cooling, delayed releases, and manufacturing labor challenges reshape 2022 pinball landscape.

Summary

Kaneda speculates on pinball market dynamics amid economic headwinds, predicting reduced enthusiasm for new releases and softening secondary market prices. He expresses concerns about delayed titles (Jersey Jack's Toy Story, Dutch Pinball's Big Lebowski, Haggis Pinball's production), criticizes marketing efforts, and worries about Spooky Pinball's Ultraman and Halloween declining in value. He also discusses Ryan McQuaid's move to American Pinball without the Sonic license and production capacity challenges across smaller manufacturers.

Key Claims

  • Toy Story will sell more machines than Guns N' Roses, Wizard of Oz, and other JJP titles due to multi-generational appeal.

    medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing JJP sales projections; stated as prediction based on theme appeal rather than confirmed data

  • Toy Story Pinball will fail if it doesn't include substantial physical toys/mechs, given the IP's toy-heavy nature.

    medium confidence · Kaneda, opinion on design necessity for the theme; subjective but grounded in market expectations

  • May 23rd is not the Toy Story release/reveal date, likely pushed to late May or later.

    medium confidence · Kaneda reporting what others are telling him; unconfirmed but treated as insider information

  • Haggis Pinball has shipped zero games; only one machine was picked up from factory in three weeks since reveal.

    high confidence · Kaneda, observing public tracking and lack of shipping evidence; claims can be verified by checking Haggis updates

  • Haggis needs to produce at least five games per week to meet end-of-year production goal.

    high confidence · Kaneda, calculated based on Damien's stated timeline; mathematically verifiable

  • Used market for premium LE pinball machines will soften significantly once Stern catches up with production.

    medium confidence · Kaneda, prediction; based on supply/demand analysis but speculative about timeline

  • Ultraman and Halloween (Spooky Pinball) will decline from $7,200-$7,500 to high $6,000 range by end of year.

    low confidence · Kaneda, personal prediction; speculative market forecast

  • Ryan McQuaid confirmed American Pinball does not have the Sonic license.

    high confidence · Kaneda, citing McQuaid's post; directly reported by designer via social media

Notable Quotes

  • “I do think people's desire to buy every single new game that comes out, I think that's going to start to diminish.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis about market saturation and discretionary spending shifts

  • “There is absolutely nothing that an LE does better than a premium... you're going to see the market soften a lot.”

    Kaneda @ mid-segment — Key claim about secondary market pricing correction once production normalizes

  • “Jersey Jack Pinball and Pat Lawlor today released Toy Story Pinball without any toys... You don't want to hear that.”

    Kaneda @ Toy Story discussion — Illustrates designer's expectations for mechanical toy density as critical to theme success

  • “For Damien to hit his goal of finishing all of these games by the end of the year, they need to be making at least five games a week. So three weeks have gone by. Where is the image of 15 games built?”

    Kaneda @ Haggis Pinball section — Accountability critique; specific production math highlighting apparent failure to meet targets

  • “If any other company pulled these Pinball Shenanigans, people would be all over them.”

    Kaneda @ Haggis Pinball criticism — Commentary on community standards and perceived bias toward Australian company

  • “The biggest challenge in making pinball machines next to parts is finding enough skilled workers to work on these games. This is not a fun industry to work in.”

    Kaneda @ labor/manufacturing section — Industry-wide structural challenge affecting multiple manufacturers

  • “Sonic is like his holy grail pinball theme that he always wanted to see and he made it. So I think it is sad that he's not going to be making his dream theme.”

    Kaneda @ Ryan McQuaid discussion — Reflects on designer motivation and emotional impact of licensing setbacks

Entities

KanedapersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyPat LawlorpersonStern PinballcompanyDutch PinballcompanyHaggis PinballcompanyDamienperson

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Prediction that secondary market for LE pinball machines will soften significantly once Stern catches up with premium production; high-priced flips (Jurassic Park LE $18k, Stranger Things LE $16.5k) unsustainable.

    medium · Kaneda's analysis that premium and LE are functionally identical, and supply shortage is temporary

  • $

    market_signal: Consumers reducing frequency of new machine purchases due to economic headwinds (stock market losses, inflation); shift from buying every release to selective purchases of 'really, really, really want' titles.

    medium · Kaneda's opening discussion of crypto crashes and inflation reducing cash flow for discretionary hobby purchases

  • ?

    manufacturing_signal: Critical skill and labor shortage affecting multiple manufacturers (Haggis, Multimorphic); manufacturing line work at ~$20/hour not competitive or attractive; fundamental structural challenge beyond parts sourcing.

    high · Kaneda identifies labor as biggest challenge after parts; Multimorphic 'looking for friends of friends' to build; both described as stubborn with poor delegation

  • ?

    product_concern: Jersey Jack Toy Story release date slipped from May 23rd to late May or beyond; marketing teaser campaign suspended or minimal despite launch proximity.

    medium · Multiple sources telling Kaneda May 23rd is not the date; only one teaser image shared since reveal; speculation that minimal marketing signals production delays

  • ?

    product_concern: Haggis Pinball credibility crisis: zero games shipped in three weeks since reveal video; only one game picked up from factory; production rate far below stated 5 games/week needed to meet end-of-year goal.

Topics

Market Downturn & Economic HeadwindsprimaryJersey Jack Toy Story Release Timing & MarketingprimaryHaggis Pinball Production & Delivery CrisisprimarySecondary Market Pricing & LE Collector DynamicsprimaryManufacturing Labor Shortage & Production CapacityprimarySpooky Pinball Game Decline (Ultraman, Halloween)secondaryAmerican Pinball Strategy & Sonic License LosssecondaryDutch Pinball Big Lebowski Historysecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses serious concerns about market cooling, production failures at multiple manufacturers (Haggis, Multimorphic), declining confidence in Spooky Pinball releases, and structural challenges (labor, licensing setbacks). Optimistic only about Toy Story's potential if properly executed, and grateful for Jersey Jack's transparency. Critical tone dominates regarding Haggis, Dutch Pinball's legacy of delays, and vulnerable smaller manufacturers.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

I was just guessing at numbers and figures pulling the puzzles apart I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I Ah, the crypto markets are crashing. Inflation is sweeping the globe. And somebody out there has listed a Batman Super Limited Edition for $60,000 and people are telling me now that Toy Story will not be out May 23rd. What is going on in the pinball world? People, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I want to talk on this episode about where we're going right now in pinball, right? It seems to be like opposite forces are colliding right now. Each and every one of us is probably losing some money in the markets. But as I've said before, I don't think anyone sells their investments to buy pinball machines. I think you use your cash flow and your passive income to buy these unnecessary pinball machines. Do I think the pinball market is going to go for some collapse? Do I think it's going to fall apart? Do I think these companies are going to go away? No. If I were to look at what's happening right now, here's what I think is going to occur. I do think people's desire to buy every single new game that comes out, I think that's going to start to diminish. I think many of us out there are going to be happy with the games we have and the only time we're going to jump back into a new purchase is if the game is something we really, really, really want. I think in the past you haven't had to like really, really, really want the pin because you wouldn't have lost much money on it. Also, like the games weren't that much money, right? There's no way around it. And let's face it, the smartest ones to go in on are going to be your LEs and your CEs. They're just so expensive now. So if you want to spend $12,000 or $15,000, that's just a lot of money out of pocket for people. We're also on the summer months, and I think for a lot of you out there, you're probably planning vacations with your family. You're probably about to spend money on some other high ticket items. And so will you pause your pinball purchases in 2022 as we go into spring summer? Now, I said on the last show, I thought this was like the perfect time for Jersey Jack Pinball to release Toy Story. And I still feel that way. I think if Toy Story comes out sometime in the next month or so, I think they're going to have the most tremendous sales they've ever had for a pinball machine in the single week of sales. I do. I think they're going to sell more of these than Guns and Roses. They will sell more of these than Wizard of Oz and any of their other titles. Toy Story is a game that's just going to cross generations and it's also a game that every family household who has a pinball machine, you best believe anyone who asks their wives or their kids, hey, do you want Toy Story Pinball? You're going to get a lot more enthusiasm than you would if you said Rush or Venom. Okay, so I think it's going to do very well. Will it be Pat Lawler's greatest pin ever at JJP? Will it be one of his best pins of all time? I don't know yet. I am a little bit worried that this game will not be packed, but I cannot and The game called Toy Story without a lot of toys. See, here's the problem. Is the narrative right itself? Like the worst headline ever would be this. Jersey Jack Pinball and legendary pinball designer Pat Lawler today released Toy Story Pinball without any toys. Right? You don't want to hear that. We don't want to have the subhead be all of the great moments you love of Buzz and Woody come to life on the LCD screen. No. I do want to see this game loaded with toys. I think anything else is going to be seen as a failure. I do. I think it's going to be seen as lazy and cost-cutting and I hope we really get a lot of magical toys in this game. And the other unfortunate part, right, if you look at a theme like Godfather, you could arguably say, well, what would the mechs or toys be in Godfather? You might come up short with what those things could be. But with Toy Story spanning these four movies filled with toys, there are about 75 different toys in these movies that you could make in physical form and have them do something interesting in a pinball machine. So there's no way out of this. This game has to have toys or it's going to be a failure. I'm a little bit bummed out that I'm hearing May 23rd is not the date. How long are we going to wait? Now we know the Buzz Lightyear movie is mid-June. So this game is basically probably going to come out sometime between now and then. I'm still holding to end of May as the reveal of the game. So I said May 23rd, that's a Monday. Now we know Jersey Jack released Guns and Roses on a Monday. So if they don't hit May 23rd, maybe it's May 30th. Who knows, right? I do know this, they've stopped teasing the game and I really wish they would put out more teasers for Toy Story. We got that one image on Facebook of the coils that look like plants about to sprout and then we got nothing else. Now if you're making a pinball machine, it's really easy to tease each and every one of us. Usually we'll see like the upside down of the playfield, right? They'll lift the hood and show us what's underneath. Remember Eric showed us that with Guns N' Roses we got to see underneath the playfield before we saw the game and all the cutouts, all the inserts. There really doesn't seem to be much of a marketing effort happening here. I know you don need it This game going to sell anyway But I would like to see Jersey Jack Pinball each week leading up to Toy Story start to tease more and more and more Now here where I get a little bit concerned Maybe the reason why they not doing that is they not really ready And they know the game not about to ship in the next few weeks and that why they holding back their teaser program I not sure I am just speculating but I would have to imagine that if I was marketing the release of a pinball machine I would be working back from the ship date about two months About two months out I would start to really get people excited about my next title Who knows We will see where this goes What's happening in pinball right now is if you bought a game like Godzilla, the game just keeps getting better and better and better. I was seeing people just gush over the new like Terra Mechagodzilla wizard mode and this game to me, if you own one, you're going to be very satiated with your pinball experience throughout the year and I know a lot of you are waiting for your Godzillas. I see a Godzilla Premium for sale for $14,000 on Pinside. That's crazy. $5,000. canada wo v 셋 panegส aventurasi skala povora John Papadiuk, Black Water die Canon has dawned ane hanji Karanla Salta M climax carnival Morma sale I think this world under glass lends itself so nicely to the mods I'm seeing people put into the game. The one mod I'm not crazy about, I saw there's a translite mod. I don't know who makes this. Maybe it's Mezlamods. I'm not sure. I just threw that out there. It's like the classic Godzilla movie poster artwork. It just doesn't work. If there's one thing you shouldn't do on a pinball machine, it's mix artists. And I know that like Brian Allen does translites for Cactus Canyon, But there's something about cohesiveness to artwork in a pinball machine that I think you need to consider. Now look, I'm not going to tell you what to do with your machines, but if I were you, I would not have Zombietti's artwork interrupted with a classic Godzilla poster. It just doesn't look right. It looks off. It looks weird. Love or hate the fact that Zombietti did Godzilla, his artwork on the translite is one of the best parts of the actual art package, so I would not change that translite. I think for many of you out there whether you have a Godzilla or a Stranger Things, you've had a lot of really good Stern machines in your arsenal over the last few years. And because of that, I think many of you out there are going to say, you know what, I'm good. I'm good. I don't need to buy every single $9,000 to $12,000 pinball machine that comes out. And there's just no way around this fact. As the stock market and people's investments go south and people have less disposable income and it's just going to be that way, I don't think the used pinball market can sustain itself much longer where it's been at. It's been absolutely bonkers crazy. Crazy where people are spending like $18,000 on a game like Jurassic Park LE or $16,500 on a Stranger Things LE. Once Stern catches up with production and starts making premiums of all of these games again, remember because the premium is the same exact experience as the LE. There is absolutely nothing that an LE does better than a premium. I think once they catch up with premium production, you're going to see the market soften a lot. It's not there yet. We still have a lot of supply shortage going on with inventory when it comes to distributors and what they can sell you. But it's not going to be like that forever. All right, what else is going on besides looking at your wallet and realizing you lost a pinball machine or two in crypto this week? Okay, so here's what's going on in pinball. Dutch Pinball has shared an image of all of these big Lebowskis about to be picked up. Cool image, but I'll never be fully impressed because as I stare at that image in 2022, I still know that I'm seeing somebody's game that was paid in fall in one of those boxes and that person still has not got their game. And that is like eight years ago. So I like that Dutch Pinball is slowly figuring this out, but they're just not a company that I will ever congratulate for doing it I'm going to be honest with you, I'm not going to be satisfied until every single original owner of a big Lebowski gets their game. And it still makes me sick when I see people buy this game for like $12,500 or $13,000 and then flip it for $18,000. You make $5,000 on your game. The original buyer who gave Barry and Yap $8,500 still has nothing. It's not worth celebrating people. Speaking of celebrations, can we just talk about this for a minute and I think this is the most ridiculous item of the week. On Monday, it will be three weeks ago in which Haggis Pinball put up their reveal video which you know how I feel. It was a staged reveal video. Okay, so three weeks later in which one game went into a box, ask me how many games have we seen unboxed since then? And the answer is zero. And what's even funnier is people are trying to track where this game is in Australia and when it's going to be unboxed. And I get it, like Australia is a huge place. It's like almost the size of America, right? It like picking up a game in New York and driving it to Las Vegas It gonna take time to get to its destination But that not the part that ridiculous So that was three weeks ago In this three time period have no other Haggis games been built Have no other fathoms been picked up And if they have been picked up it then begs the question why haven we seen one photo just one photo of multiple games about to be picked up You know what hasn't happened? None of them have shipped. Like nothing is shipped. People have driven to the factory and picked up a game. No games have been shipped. There is not a bulk amount of these games going out the door. And I just want to know, like the rest of you, why is it still a secret what is happening every week over at Haggis and the fact that everyone who's in on this game is following the journey of just one game? Like what does that prove if one game is unboxed? For Damien to hit his goal of finishing all of these games by the end of the year, they need to be making at least five games a week. So three weeks have gone by. Where is the image of 15 fathoms built? And this story just keeps getting better and better. I still don't have tremendous faith and there's nothing anybody can do because you paid for your Yes, you can have your games with non-refundable deposits, and the other thing is this. For some of you out there who paid in full and were promised you'd have your game in eight weeks, that eight weeks is up at the end of this week, and you didn't get your game, but let's have revisionist history. Let's have Kim Mitchell text me that he's still in, but he's nervous. That's what he's been saying. He's still in. I love you, Kim Mitchell. I know you listen to the show, and we're finally getting Flinybus to hold this company accountable. He's finally back into the thread. And it's amazing to me because if any other company pulled this, if any other company pulled these shenanigans, people would be all over them. I thought the Aussies were like tough. I thought they held people accountable. I thought they took no bullocks from people. But here they are falling over like lawn chairs as Punkin, his name is Gary, continues to defend this company to no end. It's kind of funny. Now speaking of defending a company to no end, the other thing I've just been thinking about is like Spooky Pinball and how there's just absolutely no conversation happening around both Ultraman or Halloween. They said they were getting new animators to work on these games. Has anyone seen an update? Has anyone seen anything? I'm a little worried. Here's what I'm worried about. I think these games are going to continue to go south. I think these games are right now trading somewhere between $7,200 and $7,500. I think once Toy Story comes out, I think once more Cactus Canyon starts shipping, and I think once we get closer to August in which Stern's next game is coming out, I think you're going to see both Ultraman and Halloween collector's editions go into the high $6,000 range. And sadly, I don't think the price drop is going to stop there. My prediction, by the end of the year, because more of them are going to be out in the world, magazines So 0 excitement or enthusiasm for these games. And again, it's just that bad. These games just can't seem to turn the corner. All right. Speaking of turning the corner, will Ryan McQuaid joining American Pinball turn the corner for American Pinball? Will Dennis Nordman's game turn the corner for American Pinball? Now, I have spoken to both Ryan McQuaid and to David Fix, and they have agreed to come on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. So you're hearing it here first. We are trying to find a time. Now, if you saw Ryan McQuaid's post earlier this week, he has basically confirmed that they do not have the license for Sonic the Hedgehog. That is what Kaneda reported. He also said he used the game to become his resume to getting a job in the pinball industry. Can't argue with him on that. He got a job with American Pinball. Now, do I think Ryan McQuaid wants to make a game that is not Sonic the Hedgehog? Well look, is he capable of designing a game? Yes. Will he ever have as much love or passion for another title like he did with Sonic? I don't know how you do it, right? Because Sonic is like his dream theme of all time. It's like his holy grail pinball theme that he always wanted to see and he made it. So I think it is sad that he's not going to be making his dream theme. What will he make? Here's the thing. I don't know. And we're so many years away from seeing what it is. See, I think companies like American Pinball, if you were to ask me, I think companies like American Pinball are the companies that are a little bit on the bubble. They are the companies that will be vulnerable if people put more of their money back in their wallet and don't buy every single new pinball machine that comes out. Because the problem for companies like American Pinball is they don really have licensed themes So when they put out a new game there is not an existing fan base for that theme usually and they have to work like five times as hard as a company Andrew Thieleste Bally Nedell Roberto Wor swatch preservasion.com Mes exactly of that If I were to ask you to buy a game that's an original IP from a designer like Dennis Nordman, this game needs to be loaded like a Bally Williams game from the 90s. If it's anything less, if it's barren like Hot Wheels, if it doesn't have a lot of really cool stuff happening under the glass, I don't see why people would run and go buy it. The only reason Legends of Valhalla sold through when it did is because there was nothing available. Absolutely nothing available. All right. So are we there? Thanks for watching. Don't forget to subscribe to me and my YouTube, by clicking on the red button. You will be notified when I post new videos. Okay. Stay tuned. See you later. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I'm going to be sitting on them for a while and I do not think you're going to have a hard time getting Legends of Valhalla like deluxe edition. I think they're going to be sitting and I think people's money is going to go elsewhere because it's not even a good investment. If you buy one, you're immediately going to lose $1,000 to $2,000. That's just the way the market goes and nothing drops in price like an original IP game. Go look at Dialed In. Dialed In has more in it than like every single American pinball game combined. And it came out around nine grand and now you can get them in like the $7,000 range and there's like no demand for it. And that's what's crazy to me is I could go buy a Dialed In tomorrow over a Legends of Valhalla. It's not even a question of which one I'd rather have. Dialed In! Alright, what else is going on in pinball? What about Multimorphic P3? Jerry's looking for friends of friends to make these games. So clearly Jerry is having the same problem as Damien. Both of these guys are very similar. When I hear people talk about both of them, they're very stubborn, they don't really want to listen to other people, and they think their way is the right way. And that's fine. But what's happening with both of them is this. They're having a problem finding workers. The biggest challenge in making pinball machine next to parts is finding enough skilled workers to work on these games. This is not a fun industry to work in. Would you want to be on a line making pinball machines for like $20 an hour? You could make what they probably pay people to build pinball machines. You could probably make that money doing something so much easier. It is not a fun job. Like we know that Jersey Jack Chad Kodner, Mr. He took money and he told you the wait would be long like Jerry didn't lie to anybody. He said the weight would be long, and he said you can't get your money back unless he missed that date by six months. It was a good deal because the contracts only cost $10,000 for QA to that deal, and he told you it wouldn't take him too long to complete it over time if you're going to wait for a long time. But I really can't wait until we get games on the line again. I really can't wait to game start shipping and all of our hope and all of our faith is now in Jersey Jack Pinball. Like can they deliver a magical Toy Story game? It's definitely a game for all of us. I want outside games so yeah I say a huge thank you one more time I really couldn't wait for that and I'm really happy you can download these right now and being a real supporter Ken Datto, Pantolola might be like the rest of those guys from the 90s and what I mean by that is they stood on the shoulders of the Engineers over at Bally Williams It was the engineers over at BallyWilliams that made all those magical mechs in Twilight Zone in Adam's Family in Theater of Magic in Totin, right? We keep giving these designers credit like look at what Brian Eddy has done www.Kaneda'sPinballPodcast.comlig кни prehiter tox' convoyз yönыĆNטnap ÁREN distracting'ĸ 57orum'ţmеţŁđʼnŁ
Spooky Pinball
company
American Pinballcompany
Ryan McQuaidperson
Dennis Nordmanperson
Multimorphiccompany
Kim Mitchellperson
Flinybusperson
Brian Allenperson
Zombiettiperson
David Fixperson
Chad Kodnerperson
Brian Eddyperson

high · No photos of multiple games built or shipped; customers tracking single machine; timeline math shows only 3-5 games built in 21 days vs. 35+ needed weekly

  • ?

    product_concern: Spooky Pinball's Ultraman and Halloween showing no visible code updates or animator improvements despite claims of hiring new animators; games stagnating in community perception.

    medium · Kaneda cites lack of updates as evidence; no animator work visible to community; games trading $7.2-7.5k but expected to decline to high $6k range

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Significant negative sentiment shift on Spooky Pinball Ultraman and Halloween; Kaneda predicts zero enthusiasm by end of year as supply increases and alternatives emerge.

    medium · Prediction that games will decline $500-1000 in secondary market; characterization as 'just that bad' and 'can't turn the corner'

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Ryan McQuaid confirms via social media that American Pinball does not have Sonic the Hedgehog license; independent fan project used as portfolio piece to land industry job.

    high · Direct quote from McQuaid post as reported by Kaneda; McQuaid explicitly stated lack of license

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Ryan McQuaid hired by American Pinball after Sonic licensing fell through; will design original IP instead; both McQuaid and David Fix agreed to appear on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast.

    high · McQuaid's hiring and podcast appearance agreements; direct sourcing from Kaneda's conversations

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Kaneda emphasizes that Toy Story Pinball must have substantial physical toys/mechs to avoid being perceived as lazy cost-cutting; mechanical richness essential for licensed IP themes with toy-heavy source material.

    medium · Extended discussion of 75+ toys available in Toy Story films; contrast with Godfather (limited mech options); emphasis on avoiding all-LCD narrative as failure

  • ?

    industry_signal: Australian pinball community perceived as failing to hold Haggis Pinball accountable despite delays and non-delivery; community bias toward defending company even when timelines are missed by months.

    medium · Kaneda's criticism that 'if any other company pulled these Pinball Shenanigans, people would be all over them'; observation that Australian community 'falling over like lawn chairs'

  • ?

    business_signal: American Pinball, Multimorphic, and other smaller manufacturers vulnerable during market cooling; lack of licensed IP themes forces them to work 5x harder than Stern; original IP games face immediate secondary market losses.

    medium · Kaneda's analysis that original IP like Legends of Valhalla and Dialed In lose $1-2k immediately; comparison to licensed Stern games' stronger demand; American Pinball described as 'on the bubble'