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Episode 822: "My Thoughts on Venom"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 48s·analyzed·Jul 12, 2023
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Venom officially announced; Kaneda questions hype and criticizes JJP/Haggis execution failures.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the official announcement of Stern's Venom pinball machine, expressing skepticism about community enthusiasm and the game's market positioning relative to upcoming AAA titles (Jaws, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future). He critiques Stern's marketing effort and pricing strategy, then pivots to harsh criticism of Jersey Jack Pinball's Godfather CE fulfillment delays and Haggis Pinball's Centaur/Fathom delivery failures, positioning himself as the pinball media's only voice willing to call out industry dysfunction.

Key Claims

  • Venom's announcement was the worst-kept secret in pinball; Kaneda predicted it two years ago

    high confidence · Kaneda, opening segment; self-reference to prior coverage

  • Stern released Venom teaser on Tuesday (unusual day) to undermine Haggis Pinball's Centaur order bank opening

    medium confidence · Kaneda, mid-episode; speculation on Stern's timing strategy

  • Community enthusiasm for Venom is notably subdued compared to past launches; Pinside threads not 'lighting up'

    high confidence · Kaneda, direct observation of community response on forums

  • Stern LE machines will always sell out unless the theme is extremely poor (e.g., Godfather, Toy Story 4)

    high confidence · Kaneda, market analysis based on historical patterns

  • Jersey Jack Pinball has not shipped a single Godfather CE to customers despite production activity

    high confidence · Kaneda, direct claim about fulfillment status

  • Haggis Pinball told customers Fathoms would ship July 2021 despite knowing COVID lockdowns would prevent that timeline

    high confidence · Kaneda, accusation of deliberate misleading during sales period

  • Jaws will ship before a single Centaur reaches a customer

    medium confidence · Kaneda, prediction about relative production timelines

  • Pinball media is colluding to avoid critical coverage; only Kerry Hardy and Kaneda ask tough questions

    medium confidence · Kaneda, critical commentary on industry coverage landscape

  • Brian Eddy's two previous Stern titles didn't 'blow people away on day one'

    medium confidence · Kaneda, assessment of designer's track record

  • Keith Elwin is 'the new king of pinball' and his game launches are now the biggest of the year

Notable Quotes

  • “If only there was a pinball podcaster that told us this two years ago. Maybe the worst kept secret in all of pinball, but it's now official.”

    Kaneda @ opening — Sets tone for skepticism about Venom surprise value and hints at prior prediction

  • “This doesn't feel like a theme that's really going to separate a lot of men 40 to 60 from their $13,000.”

    Kaneda @ ~3:30 — Identifies demographic and price sensitivity issue with Venom's market appeal

  • “We're not at the juggernaut themes. We're not at the AAA games that are going to make you throw your money at the game.”

    Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Frames Venom as mid-tier compared to coming premium titles

  • “Wait and see, baby. Wait and see, baby. That's the tagline of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast.”

    Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Personal brand positioning and philosophy on game purchasing strategy

  • “Jersey Jack, you need to wake up. You need to create a loyalty program around your collector's edition buyers.”

    Kaneda @ ~15:30 — Direct business criticism and unsolicited strategic advice to JJP

  • “Jersey Jack Pinball in its freaking 10-year history has not figured this out yet. The people who pay the most get on the plane first.”

    Kaneda @ ~17:00 — Harsh critique of JJP's fulfillment prioritization and VIP management

  • “I think he's misleading people. When he tells them it's going to be eight weeks and it takes eight months.”

    Kaneda @ ~26:00 — Direct accusation of deliberate misrepresentation by Damien (Haggis)

  • “I think Jaws will be released and you will be playing it before a single Centaur will be shipped to a single customer.”

    Kaneda @ ~32:00 — Competitive positioning prediction about Stern vs Haggis delivery timelines

Entities

KanedapersonVenomgameStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyHaggis PinballcompanyKeith ElwinpersonZombie Yetiperson

Signals

  • ?

    announcement: Stern Pinball officially announced Venom pinball machine via teaser video dropped on Tuesday; dealer call scheduled for following Tuesday

    high · Kaneda: 'It's official. It's gonna be venom... Yesterday, Stern dropped its teaser video on a Tuesday.'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community enthusiasm for Venom is notably subdued despite long anticipation; threads not 'lighting up' on Pinside forums

    high · Kaneda: 'I'm not really seeing a lot of people say, take my money now... the vibe of people's response to Venom... the thread is not lighting up on Pinside'

  • $

    market_signal: Emerging theme fatigue around Marvel/comic book pinball properties; consumer preference shifting toward AAA IP (Jaws, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, etc.)

    high · Kaneda: 'It just does not feel like we really want another Marvel pin. We want another comic book pin... Are you going to wait for Jaws? Are you going to wait for Indiana Jones?'

  • ?

    product_concern: Stern's Venom promotional trailer criticized as 'one of Stern's laziest trailers to date' and lacking excitement-generating content

    high · Kaneda: 'The trailer itself does not do much to get you excited. It is probably one of Stern's laziest trailers to date... I'm not sure why Stern is mailing it in on the marketing around this game.'

  • ?

    business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball Godfather CE remains unfulfilled to customers; no evidence of shipments despite production activity

    high · Kaneda: 'Has anyone seen a single Godfather CE sent to an actual human being? We saw Jack Guarneri kiss the machines that were being made.'

Topics

Venom official announcement and market positioningprimaryCommunity enthusiasm and hype cycles for pinball launchesprimaryJersey Jack Pinball fulfillment crisis and Godfather CE delaysprimaryHaggis Pinball production failures, misleading timelines, and Centaur launchprimaryPinball pricing inflation and LE sell-through dynamicssecondaryCabinet art direction and designer utilization at SternsecondaryUpcoming AAA-tier pinball machines (Jaws, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, Matrix, Harry Potter)secondaryPinball media criticism and lack of accountability journalismsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is sharply critical of industry execution, specifically Haggis and Jersey Jack, while expressing lukewarm reception to Venom. However, maintains affection for Stern's capability and the broader pinball community. Self-positioning as the lone voice willing to critique drives confrontational tone, but underlying frustration is with industry dysfunction rather than personal animosity.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.053

X don't give it to you. Wait for you to get it on your own. X don't deliver to you. Knock, knock. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Oh, welcome to Gannetta's Pinball Podcast. It's official. It's gonna be venom. If only there was a pinball podcaster that told us this two years ago. Maybe the worst kept secret in all of pinball, but it's now official. Yesterday, Stern dropped its teaser video on a Tuesday. I want to talk a little bit about why did they do it on a Tuesday. Normally, Stern will do this on a Friday. Then they do their dealer call on a Tuesday. Now, look, they're going to do the dealer call next Tuesday. We will get to see the game in all of its zombie Yeti, Brian, Eddie, Glory, Will, Dwight, Sullivan, Koda game people are going to want. Let's just talk about Venom on a macro level right now. On a scale of 1 to 10, how excited are you for Venom? Now, look, we've known about this game for a really long time. That's why when I look at the vibe of people's response to Venom, I'm not really seeing a lot of people say, take my money now. This doesn't feel like a theme that's really going to separate a lot of men 40 to 60 from their $13,000. I understand why Foo Fighters, they have a big fan base. I understand James Bond's got like 60 years of freaking fans. I understand why Batman could do it. I understand why Godzilla could do it because anything with Keith Elwin's going to do it. I mean, let's face it, Keith Elwin, when he launches a game now, that is like the biggest pinball launch of the year. And he earned that right. He's the new king of pinball. This is not a Keith Elwin game. Both of Brian Eddy's previous two titles at Stern Pinball didn't really blow people away on day one. So we'll see what happens. We're going to see it next Tuesday. I'm not going to speculate anymore on what's going to be in the game because we're going to see the game in a week. But I am going to speculate on the enthusiasm around Venom. And it's just not really there, right? It just does not feel like we really want another Marvel pin. We want another comic book pin. And I see some people are saying whether or not they have too many Zombie Yeti games in their lineup. Look, I think his art's going to look great. I think his art style is perfect for this title. I think he works really, really hard. I think he's probably the hardest non-stopping working person over at Stern Pinball. I mean, we have back-to-back games now from Zambietti. It's almost like back-to-back-to-back. Like, he did Godzilla, he didn't do Rush, and then he does Foo Fighters, he didn't do James Bond, and then he does Venom. It's like Zambietti and everybody else over at Stern Pinball. I do wish Stern would eventually mix up the art a little bit more. And I don't want Zambietti to stop doing his thing, but who else, right? That's the real question. Who else? I think in general, it'd be nice if pinball started to really make the cabinets look much different from each other. From just an artistic standpoint, you don't really see it. Like Godzilla was a chance to maybe make the game look more like the old Godzilla posters that people remember. If done right, I think it could look really interesting. But it's either we get this really beautiful illustrated stuff from Zombie Yeti or Stern goes back to the lazy approach of just dragging and dropping like movie posters onto a cabinet and calling it a day. I mean, I could have designed the James Bond 60th cabinet in like five minutes using PowerPoint. I mean, it's embarrassing for a $20,000 game. They didn't really make much effort at all. But the venom enthusiasm, you know, the thread is not lighting up on Pinside, you know, and the trailer. I'll say this. The trailer itself does not do much to get you excited. It is probably one of Stern's laziest trailers to date. Remember the Foo Fighter trailer? It was awesome. It got everybody excited. It got everybody pumped to see the game. I'm not sure why Stern is mailing it in on the marketing around this game. Again, we're going to see it next week, but with what we have to process right now. This game does not have a lot of energy, a lot of momentum behind it. And I think part of it is because we've known about it for two years. It almost feels like it's been out already. I feel like I've been playing Venom for two years. Like, oh, they just released Venom. What are you talking about? I've got it in my game room for the last two years. Feels like it's been out. So from a cultural standpoint within the pinball community, it a little bit like we seen it we heard about it we know about it What next Because let be honest do you need a Venom in June or July of 2023 or are you going to wait for Jaws Are you going to wait for Indiana Jones? Are you going to wait for Back to the Future? We know these things are coming. The Matrix is coming. Harry Potter is coming. Everything's coming. And that's just a question for everybody out there. We kind of have a good sense of what's around the corner. I still don't think we're there yet. We're not at the juggernaut themes. We're not at the AAA games that are going to make you throw your money at the game. right? This doesn't feel like it's going to have a Pulp Fiction moment when they launch this game next week. And the price point, right? The price point just has everybody a little humbled, a little sober. We're all waking up to the new reality. Two Stern machines now $25,000, $26,000 for two Stern LEs. You add the topper, you get the accessories, you pay for shipping. you have now spent $30,000 on two Stern LEs. That is crazy, people. We all know it. We all know it. We all know we're living in this new era of pinball, the most expensive era of pinball ever. And so for these prices, the game's got to deliver the goods. And for me personally, if it doesn't check all the boxes, it's so easy to pass on these games. It's so easy to just wait and see. Wait and see, baby. Wait and see, baby. That's the tagline of Canadian's Pitball Podcast. And 95% of the time, when you wait and see, you're going to be able to get all of these games. I think Venom is not going to be a day one sellout. Will they sell all 1,000 of them? Yes, of course. Stern always does. Because the LE, it sucks to say this, but the LE is really the safest buy. Because it's going to hold its value the most. The premiums will not hold value. And if you have 10 grand, this is like a weird thing to say. But if you do have $10,000 to buy a pinball machine, you absolutely have $13,000. It's like buying a $100,000 Mercedes and then going cheap on the heated headrest for $1,500. You get the heated headrest, people. And so that's the thing. And Stern knows this. They absolutely know this. And that's what keeps these LEs selling out every single time. I don't think we're ever going to see a Stern LE not sell out unless they do something like Godfather or Toy Story 4. I mean, that is the only way a Stern LE would not sell out if it was the Godfather. I mean it when I say it. Oh, speaking of Godfather, where the heck are they? Where are the Godfather CEs? What is happening? Has anyone seen a single Godfather CE sent to an actual human being? We saw Jack Guarnieri kiss the machines that were being made. Jack, don't kiss them. Put them in a box. Put them in a truck and get them to the few remaining customers you have that are willing to spend $15,000 on a Jersey Jack machine. Jersey Jack, you need to wake up. You need to create a loyalty program around your collector's edition buyers. When you buy a Jersey Jack machine for $15,000, that should be the price you pay to become part of some VIP loyalty club that Jersey Jack creates. And that gets you first dibs on every CE moving forward. Why don't they start actually thinking about marketing and building a community the right way? Why don't they start saying stuff? When we finish a game, we will finish the code on it within a year of that game's production ending. Why don't they start to think like strategic marketers? You know, they need to really work on building their community because again, I feel like Jersey Jack right now is at the lowest point it's ever been when it comes to having some swagger, having a community that's excited, that's jazzed up. Stern Pinball, they don't have to worry about that. The Stern army is strong. Whenever a Stern machine comes out, it sells out and Stern is going to deliver and they're going to get those LE customers their games before the premiums really get built. They know how to do it. They build a few pros. They put the pros on location. It gets people excited playing the title and then they get the LE buyers their games. Jersey Jack Pinball in its freaking 10-year history has not figured this out yet. The people who pay the most get on the plane first. Jersey Jack, wake up. It's been a decade. I will give you my number. Call me. Doing marketing for pinball should be amazing. You should be knocking it out of the park. You're not even doing it right. Ah my gosh Canada what was in your coffee this morning Venom we going to see in a week It sad that Venom is gonna get to customers Seriously people are gonna be playing Venom before a single Godfather CE person plays their games That's embarrassing. Jersey Jack, look in the mirror, laugh out loud, and then call Kaneda. All right, what else is going on in pinball? We saw Damien over at Haggis. Isn't it interesting when a company owes its customers who paid for their games, when they owe those people some communications, When they owe those people some transparency, they go radio silent for like a year on Fathom customers, right? Radio silent. But think about it like this. And the moment he wants to sell you something, all of a sudden, all of a sudden, he's the most loquacious he's ever been. He's Mr. Chattybot. He's all over the place, spamming us with Facebook posts, doing hour-long interviews. All of a sudden, Damien's got so much to say the day he wants to sell you something. But what happens when he takes your money, people? He hides. And I love it. He's like, oh, you know, we don't want to do stuff because when we do stuff, people make fun of us. Well, look, we wouldn't make fun of you if you actually were transparent. If you consistently told the truth, there would be nothing to make fun of, Damien. But here's the thing. With Haggis Pinball, it comes down to this. And I think Stern released its teaser on Tuesday because even though they don't even care about Haggis, and Stern makes more games in one day than Haggis does almost all year. But wasn't it funny how Stern released its teaser on the very day that Haggis wanted people to order Centaurs? Why did they do that? They never do the teasers on a Tuesday. And Damien and everybody was promoting, like, that's going to be the day the order banks open. And guess what? Not shocking. The Oblivion Edition did not sell out yesterday. you really do have to have your head examined, I believe, to buy a $17,000 plus $2,000 in shipping single level game from 41 years ago because it comes with a motorcycle jacket and a helmet. Can I just buy the motorcycle jacket and the helmet? I don't want the game. I just want to walk around wearing the Centaur motorcycle jacket at every pinball show from now on. And I'll keep the helmet on because Damien and Marty are going to try to punch me in the head for everything I've been saying about Haggis Pinball. But here's the thing. Damien said this, and I'm just going to go by what he said. He said they're going to finish all of the fathoms by the end of the year. I'm just going to hold them to that. I don't really care about Centaur. I'm never buying it. I'm never buying a fathom. But if he doesn't deliver on this promise, can we then say that he's misleading people? Can we then say that he's not to be trusted with his plans? You tell me you tell me when it's fair for Canada to actually say I think this guy with the information he's had all throughout COVID and all throughout his plan to get these games to customers I think when he knows he can't do something he has been misleading people when he tells them it's going to be eight weeks and it takes eight months but then everybody calls Canada the bad guy they accused me of being not fair and not being balanced, right? He called Kerry Hardy fair and balanced. Kerry Hardy fair and balanced? Yeah. I think he asked the tough questions, but he was also wearing a haggis hat. You don't really see media people wearing endorsement hats of the companies they're talking about objectively, but it is what it is, people. Look, it's just pinball. I think Kerry asked the tough questions. I think Damien gave a lot of excuses. I get they went through a lot of stuff, but man, so did everybody else. And I get that Australia was on lockdown, but nobody may just start the company then. But the big question I always have with Haggis is this. He knew all that stuff. It happened during Kelt's production when the entire COVID shutdown occurred. So he knew all that was hitting him and he still told people, we are going to start shipping fathoms in July of 2021. So he knew he was never going to hit that date when he said that date. And he said that date to get people's money. And that is just the facts, ladies and gentlemen. That's not an opinion. You could go back and look at all this stuff. So here's what I'm going to do. If Damien can deliver the fathoms by the end of the year, I will eat some crow. I will say you did it. Congratulations. You held up your end of the bargain, but I'm going to go on the record right now because I'm allowed to do this. I don think they are going to finish the fathom builds by the end of the year I also don think they are going to ship a Centaur by the end of the year I don think that going to come out in January He said it shipping in January I don think you going to see that happen I'm also going to say this. I think Jaws will be released and you will be playing it before a single Centaur will be shipped to a single customer. Kaneda, you're such a toxic guy. Why does anybody listen to the show? There's so many pinball podcasts out there. They'll go on and on and on. They'll talk about everything I talk about. You got everybody else out there. Why does anybody listen? You 597 people, you're supporting this toxic, objective, hilarious, entertaining pinball podcaster. You keep putting trophies on his shelf because nobody else talks like this. Did you notice the pinball media this week? Did you notice? Like really, other than Kerry Hardy, who else actually raised any of these red flags? Nobody. They all go radio silent. They're all colluding. They all want to cheerlead. I listen to all the shows, people. It's like nobody wants to mention any of it. They just want a cheerlead. But look, get it done. Damien said it. The proof is in the pudding. So the proof is now in the pudding. And the pudding, he said, would be finished by the end of the year. And for those of you with a fathom order, I hope you get your games. For those of you who ran in and ordered a Centaur this week, I don't know why. If you just wait it, you'll be able to get the game new in box and take zero risk. I think there's a lot of people that want to sell you the game. I think the people that want to sell you the game, of course they want to sell you the game. But why would you be so loose with your money if you just look at what happened with Fathom? I can go get one tomorrow. I could have Fathom in my apartment tomorrow while people have waited two years for the game and their money's been locked up. Okay? And imagine those people who paid in full a year ago. If those people paid in full a year ago, simply bought Meta stock, they would have doubled their money. If they put it in Netflix a year ago, they would have tripled their money. Nope. Let's lock it in with a pinball company. That's a smart financial move. Everybody, thank you for being a fan of the Canada Club. A lot of exciting stuff is about to happen. Whenever a new Stern game comes out, it's super fun. They're going to deliver something that's going to be interesting, conversation worthy. And that's it. You know, and I just want to say this to my friend Donald, who bought a Puny Factory. I've read the story. I saw what happened. And I told Donald this. I'm like, look, I don't know why anybody would buy the game. It is what it is. Look, did you really expect Pinball Adventures to drop a high quality bespoke pinball machine, a company that has no experience making pinball? Come on. For $7,000, you can go get it dialed in. You can go get it freaking dialed in for $7,000. Why? In a million years, would you take $7,000 and buy a punny factory because it has some engraving on it. I don't get it. I just don't get it. I know people want to be different. If you want to be different, I don't know. Go get a Galactic Tank Force. That's going to be a real game you don't see very often in game rooms. Uh-oh, you're not allowed to crap on American Pitball, Kaneda. Well, come on. Where are the unboxings? Where are the unboxings of these games? It just feels like, you know, Damien also said they make one game a day. One game a day. Five games a week. Okay, we'll see. I don't know how you stay in business with so few games going out the door. Same thing with American pinball. Where are the games? It's like March was this period where everyone's like, here's what we're going to do. Here's what we're going to do. Here's what we're going to do. And then nobody went and did it. Nobody went and did it. I went to karaoke last night. So my voice is a little hoarse, but it is what it is. I love to sing 80 songs when I've had a lot of vodka soda. It's just something I love people. Everybody have a great day. I'll talk to you soon. Lots more great episodes of Canadian pinball podcast coming. Thank you for being a club member and we're going to have a great month. I can feel it. There's going to be so much to talk about. And then that mystery game is going to have to come out eventually. Then we're going to get Pulp Fiction. And then Elton John is going to come out. Wow, Elton John, who wants it? Nobody. you

high confidence · Kaneda, industry positioning statement

“Nobody else talks like this. Did you notice the pinball media this week? Did you notice? Like really, other than Kerry Hardy, who else actually raised any of these red flags?”

Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Self-positioning as industry's sole critical voice; implicit criticism of peer media

  • “Why would you be so loose with your money if you just look at what happened with Fathom? I can go get one tomorrow.”

    Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Consumer warning and market saturation observation for delayed games

  • Brian Eddy
    person
    Jack Guarneriperson
    Damienperson
    Kerry Hardyperson
    Godfather CEproduct
    Fathomgame
    Centaurgame
    Foo Fightersgame
    James Bond 60thgame
    Godzillagame
    Jawsgame
    Indiana Jonesgame
    Back to the Futuregame
    The Matrixgame
    Harry Pottergame
    Pinball Adventurescompany
    Pony Factorygame
    American Pinballcompany
  • ?

    product_concern: Haggis Pinball accused of deliberate timeline misrepresentation; promised July 2021 Fathom shipments while knowing COVID lockdowns would prevent fulfillment

    high · Kaneda: 'He knew all that was hitting him and he still told people, we are going to start shipping fathoms in July of 2021... He knew he was never going to hit that date when he said that date. And he said that date to get people's money.'

  • ?

    pricing_signal: Stern LE pricing reached $25,000-$26,000 per machine; total two-machine + accessories + shipping package cost exceeds $30,000

    high · Kaneda: 'Two Stern machines now $25,000, $26,000 for two Stern LEs. You add the topper, you get the accessories, you pay for shipping. you have now spent $30,000 on two Stern LEs.'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Zombie Yeti producing back-to-back Stern games (Godzilla, Foo Fighters, Venom) with minimal other artist rotation; raises questions about cabinet art diversity across lineup

    high · Kaneda: 'It's like back-to-back-to-back. Like, he did Godzilla, he didn't do Rush, and then he does Foo Fighters, he didn't do James Bond, and then he does Venom.'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Pinball media broadly avoiding critical coverage of industry failures (Haggis delays, JJP fulfillment issues); only Kerry Hardy and Kaneda acknowledged as asking tough questions

    medium · Kaneda: 'Did you notice the pinball media this week? Like really, other than Kerry Hardy, who else actually raised any of these red flags? Nobody. They all go radio silent. They're all colluding.'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Prediction that Stern's Jaws will ship before Haggis Centaur reaches any customer, indicating severe production/fulfillment challenges at Haggis

    medium · Kaneda: 'I think Jaws will be released and you will be playing it before a single Centaur will be shipped to a single customer.'

  • $

    market_signal: Games delayed long enough (like Fathom) become available new-in-box on secondary market at lower risk, eliminating pre-order advantage and creating moral hazard for early purchasers

    high · Kaneda: 'I can go get one tomorrow... while people have waited two years for the game and their money's been locked up... If those people paid in full a year ago, simply bought Meta stock, they would have doubled their money.'

  • ?

    business_signal: Haggis Pinball goes 'radio silent' on customer communications during delays but becomes highly visible when launching new orders; inconsistent transparency strategy

    high · Kaneda: 'When a company owes its customers... they go radio silent for like a year on Fathom customers... But the moment he wants to sell you something, all of a sudden... he's the most loquacious he's ever been.'