Episode 689: "The Less For More Cheerleaders"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·32m 45s·analyzed·Jun 27, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.039

TL;DR

Kaneda argues Toy Story lacks toys and value despite premium pricing, shifts bullish stance from JJP to Stern.

Summary

Kaneda criticizes Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story as overpriced ($12,000-$15,000) with minimal mechanical content for a toy-themed game, contrasting it unfavorably with Stern's Godzilla and expressing concern about industry-wide price inflation disconnected from value. He praises Stern's recent output and Keith Elwin's design philosophy while expressing disappointment in JJP's direction, discusses production status across multiple manufacturers (Spooky, American Pinball, Chicago Gaming, Dutch Pinball, Multimorphic), and warns that unsustainable pricing will force collectors to be more selective.

Key Claims

Toy Story Pinball has no meaningful toy mechanics despite being a toy-themed game priced at $12,000-$15,000
high confidence · Kaneda's central thesis throughout the episode; he emphasizes 'you made Toy Story Pinball and there are no toys in the game' multiple times
Godzilla Premium Edition ($9,000) is a better pinball experience than Toy Story CE ($15,000) in terms of fun, flow, code, and mechanical content
high confidence · Direct comparison: 'Godzilla Premium Edition is a better pinball experience than Toy Story. It's more fun. It's far more flow. It's far more code. It's far more toys.'
Jersey Jack Pinball has licensing rights to two or three Disney movies in addition to Toy Story
medium confidence · Kaneda states: 'Jersey Jack Pinball has the rights to two or three Disney movies when they signed up for Toy Story' and speculates this will lead to Avatar and other titles
Toy Story was made based on Toy Story 4 rather than the original 1989 film, due to Disney's preference for the newer film's visual quality
medium confidence · Kaneda heard 'two separate rumors' that 'Disney wanted them to make the most recent one because Disney is most proud of how the latest movie looked'
Stern's current design team led by Keith Elwin is 'the best team in pinball right now' and possibly 'the best team ever assembled'
high confidence · Kaneda's direct assessment: 'I think the team with Keith Elwin that Sam Stern has on his games is the best team in pinball right now. They might be the best team ever assembled.'
Cactus Canyon units are shipping with quality issues including wrinkled decals, rusted posts, and mechanical problems
medium confidence · Kaneda reports: 'I'm seeing decals are wrinkling. I'm seeing posts are all rusted in the game. And I'm seeing like issues with some of the mechs.'
Dutch Pinball is now producing unlimited Big Lebowski units (potentially capping at 1,000) rather than the limited ~500-600 originally expected
medium confidence · Kaneda interviewed Barry at Dutch Pinball: 'they are making an unlimited amount for now. They might cap it at 1000'

Notable Quotes

“You made Toy Story Pinball and there are no toys in the game. That's it. Hard stop, how are we as a community celebrating a game that is the most expensive game Jersey Jack Pinball has ever made and it has no toys in it and it's based on Toy Story.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00-8:30 — Core thesis of the episode and the primary critique of Toy Story's design philosophy
“I never thought I'd say this. I'm much more excited to see what's next from Sam Stern Pinball than I am from Jersey Jack Pinball. I never felt that way.”
Kaneda @ ~26:30 — Major sentiment shift indicating loss of confidence in JJP and increased confidence in Stern
“It's like saying a watch, if it accurately tells time, can be valued at anything. And sure you could price anything at anything, right? But at some point, each and every one of us in our own personal way, we have our own line in the sand.”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Core value proposition argument: price should reflect content, not just function
“Can you imagine if Spooky Pinball made Godzilla? Can you just imagine? I mean just imagine like the layout for Halloween in Ultraman being turned into Godzilla Pinball. That would be like a metaverse world you don't want to live in.”
Kaneda @ ~25:00 — Critique of Spooky's design philosophy; implies their playfield layouts underutilize intellectual property
“Sam Stern Pinball is going in the right direction. Jersey Jack Pinball is going in the wrong direction. That's just how I feel.”
Kaneda @ ~24:30 — Direct competitive positioning statement reflecting major industry sentiment shift
“What I love about the team that Keith is working with, it's not just Keith. I think what makes his games so special is I think they have a real vision for the game. I don't think they do one piece at a time. I think he goes into each game knowing everything he would want from a rule standpoint from a design standpoint from a toy standpoint. Everything feels so cohesive.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Explanation of why Stern's Keith Elwin team is superior; holistic design philosophy vs. piecemeal approach

Entities

Kanedaperson John Papadukeperson Eric Meunierperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyKeith Elwinperson

Signals

?
product_concern: Toy Story Pinball criticized for minimal toy mechanics despite premium pricing ($12,000-$15,000), creating perception of poor value proposition compared to contemporaries like Godzilla
high · Kaneda repeatedly emphasizes lack of toys in a toy-themed game; contrasts $6,000 price difference between Toy Story CE and Godzilla Premium with superior mechanical content in Godzilla
~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda explicitly reverses long-held preference, now bullish on Stern Pinball over Jersey Jack Pinball; states 'I never thought I'd say this' regarding Stern excitement
high · Direct quote: 'I never thought I'd say this. I'm much more excited to see what's next from Sam Stern Pinball than I am from Jersey Jack Pinball. I never felt that way.'
$
market_signal: Secondary market pricing decoupling from game quality/intrinsic value; Stranger Things LE example cited at $18,000 (double from $9,000 launch)
high · Kaneda reports observing Stranger Things LE for $18,000 and warns that manufacturers are beginning to price new games based on inflated secondary market values without proportional content increases
?
business_signal: Kaneda predicts significant market correction and financial stress for collectors within 12 months, citing unsustainable pricing as driver
medium · 'I think we're in for a really rough ride financially. I think a lot of people are going to realize what did I do? Why did I tie up $100,000 in pinball machines?'
?
product_concern: Chicago Gaming Company's Cactus Canyon experiencing quality issues including wrinkled decals, rusted posts, and mechanical problems; customer service response delays reported

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.098

0:00

What else should I be? I'll apologize What else should I say? Everyone is gay I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say Oh, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcast that is not gonna raise its prices this year. Hi there everybody, I'm back from France, I'm back from Paris, I'm happy to have the microphone in front of me and to talk to you about pinball. Let's get right to it. So here's the thing, I had a week off, I had a week to reflect on everything that's been happening in pinball. And there's been a lot happening, right? We had a lot of expectations around Toy Story. We've been waiting for companies to get games out the door like Cactus Canyon, Weird Al, Fathom, where's the new game from American Pinball? Is Dutch Pinball going to get the EA Game Story Initiativejours I'm John from Pinball and I think you're going to enjoy this episode 689 of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast and thank you each and every one of you for sticking with me. I lost a few subscribers. We're still holding really strong at 521 so I'm glad I'm back in the saddle. Let me start out by asking one question and this is one question I have for John at Jack Bar. It's one question I have for Zach Manny. This is a question for everyone out there who is sort of supporting and justifying Toy Story because it's fun. The one question I have for everybody, and it's not just those two gentlemen, it's for all of us. How many of you out there want to pay more money and get less for your money? That is all that comes down to for me with this game. Why are we spending more money and getting much less in the game? That is it. It is a question of value. And I know that the game is going to be fun. I am going to play this game. I will play this game. I will have fun playing this game. But I will never buy the game. Because I do not see the value in the game. And that doesn't mean the game doesn't shoot well. It doesn't mean the game's not going to have Toy Story like elements. But I just don't see the value. Now look, I respect you if you buy the game and you enjoy it. Of course distributors and dealers want you to believe the game is so much fun because they make money on every single one and sold. But the way I look at this game, and the reason why this game is disappointing to me, was Jersey Jack Pinball was always supposed to be the company that would go above and beyond. They were supposed to be the company that was going to pack these pinball machines, load it with all the fun toys we wanted. And the ultimate hard stop for me is this, you made Toy Story Pinball and there are no toys in the game. That's it. Hard stop, how are we as a community celebrating a game that is the most expensive game Jersey Jack Pinball has ever made and it has no toys in it and it's based on Toy Story. That's it. I don't care how much fun it is. I don't care how great the flow is. I don't care about the slot machine music. You made Toy Story, you put no toys in it. Hard stop, I'm out. I'm not buying it. I can easily find more toys in games like Jurassic Park. I can easily find more toys in games like Godzilla. Think about the major mech in Black Knight for a minute, right? We all ragged on BlackKnight how empty it was. There is more of an impressive toy in BlackKnight Pro than in all of Toy Story 4 for $12,000 to $15,000. And that's where my hard stop begins and ends because if you're not going to put the effort in and you're not going to engineer stuff in Toy Story that brings toys to life, then I'm not buying. And I think for some of you out there, I don't know why you're defending the game. I really don't. I really don't understand. I'm not saying the game's not fun, but can anyone honestly and earnestly look anyone in the eye and say, after I played this game, I saw why this game is $12,000 to $15,000. And the argument that if it's fun, it doesn't matter what the price is, is bogus. It's like saying a watch, if it accurately tells time, can be valued at anything. And sure you could price anything at anything, right? A company can say we're charging this much for this. But at some point, each and every one of us in our own personal way, we have our own line in the sand. And in our minds we're saying if I'm going to spend this money, I want to see this much in a game. And if I'm going to spend $12,000 to $15,000, I want to see a game that's loaded like Godzilla The game that's loaded like The Big Lebowski or game that's loaded like Pirates of the Caribbean or game that's loaded like Dialed In or game that's loaded like The WizardofOz. You know a friend of mine who's a big Jersey Jack fanboy I'll say it again, his name is Derrick, you know Derrick. He went and played a Metallica and Derrick's a huge Jersey Jack fanboy. I don't think he realizes that Stern actually makes amazing machines. I also don't think he realizes that Stern has been packing a lot of their favorite machines with a lot of really fun toys. And so if you go look at Metallica now and you compare metallica and what's in it from a mechanical standpoint, it embarrasses, absolutely embarrasses what's in Toy Story on a mechanical level. And Derek walkedawayFromPrincipal, and said, wow, like it's got the hammer. It's got Sparky. It's got the drop targets. It's got the snake. It's got all this stuff in the game. So then you look at Toy Story, you're like, what does it have? It has a $30 iPad. It has a ramp that flaps up. And that's about it. That's about it. Cake toppers, lights, more cake toppers, more lights, wide open shots, three flippers. That's it. That's it people. I wish I was saying it had a crane. I wish I was saying it had RC in it. I wish I was saying Buzz Lightyear's wings popped open. I wish I was saying all this stuff. I wish it had the Etch-A-Sketch which became the WonkaVision in it. It doesn't have anything in it. That's a toy that comes to life. Hard stop. I'm glad you guys enjoy your games. I'm glad you guys can justify the price. I can't do it. Now, I was wondering how did this become just Toy Story 4? Now, I'm hearing two separate rumors. I'm glad that they're making a new one. But I'm also hearing that Disney wanted them to make the most recent one because Disney is most proud of how the latest movie looked. Because if you go back and watch the original Toy Story, it doesn't look nearly as good as Toy Story 4. Now someone should have told the folks over at Disney, go look at pinball animations, they're all pretty bad. So we could use the footage from the first movie and still get away with it. But I'm not quite sure what the truth is there, whether or not JJP had the rights to use one through three, but they ended up with just four. But I'll say this. It's Jersey Jack's job to show Disney how they can make Toy Story one and make it work, even with the animations not looking as good as the ones in Toy Story four. That's the job of Jersey Jack Pinball to make Disney realize if we're going to immortalize this theme and we get one shot at it and they should have said that. Like the greatest thing about pinball is we making a physical thing and once we make it we can really change it and so we going to immortalize Toy Story in pinball format The smartest thing we can do is to base it around the very film that made everybody fall in love with this franchise And I'm not sure if they did that. I'm not sure if they were given the rights to all four. I'm not sure who made what decision. But I still can't get over the fact that it's not based on the movie we all love. Alright, so the other part I heard is this that's interesting. That Jersey Jack Pinball has the rights To two or three Disney movies when they signed up for Toy Story. So what other films do we think they're going to make now? I think they're gonna do an avatar pinball machine because avatar is a Disney property and I think that is going to happen They're gonna have to wait for some of the avatar sequels to come out before they make the pinball machine There's no way they're gonna make it in conjunction with there's just no way I think Jersey Jack pinball making something like avatar I'm going to be honest with everybody. The fact that JJP is now going to strip games down and charge so much money, it really bums me out. And so the next title, right? If this was Pat Lawler's last game and this is what he believed he needed to do, then maybe Eric Minier's next game, I think it's Godfather. A game ofழ Taking some time atÚ You can put Star Wars next to it, you could put Ninja Turtles, Jurassic Park,Godzilla, you've got to spend twice as much money to buy this game. That means you need to make twice as much money on location to break even. So normally playing pinball on location is $1 per play. So because this game is $12,000, do operators need to charge people $2 to play this game? I think it's sort of strange to me that Pat Lawler always wanted to get his games back out on location. And while I think they made this the most operator friendly gameplay game, right? It's an easier game to understand. It's an easier game to play. They financially just made it silly for operators to buy this game. Because why would you buy a game for twice as much? I know what some operators would say, look, it's the brand new game. It's going to get all the plays. And so, yeah, we can get tons of plays on it. I'm not really sure what the resale market is on this game guys. It's way too early. It's way too early. I do think you're going to be able to get a collector's edition for $15,000. I do. I don't think all 1000 of them are going to be spoken for. And if they are, I think there's a lot of people who speculated on them. And I think the flippers aren't going to make the money they thought they were going to make. You can see it already. People trying to flip a CE can't even get 1500 bucks over sticker for it. Like I got Godzilla LE immediately. E. Ponte. 2 more weeks inexistency This Week in Pinball Podcast, Termsdisciplinary It's already not worth $15,000 with what's in it. And then you're going to spend $17,500 on one, $18,000, $20,000 on one. But I will say if this game was based on Andy's Room and the original movie and had toys in it, people would be fighting over each other to get one. That's not the case. So I think we're going to see Godfather next. Then we're going to get Steve Richie's Music Pin, which I'm going to let you guys know what that is real soon. I'm not going to get scooped on this one like I did Godfather and then we are going to get what I think is going to be The Matrix. So I think it's going to go Godfather, Richie Music Pin and then The Matrix and I really hope and pray that Jersey Jack Pinball is not going to make The Matrix 4. Like they better make the first Matrix movie. Now if it's not The Matrix I could see it being Avatar because that would kind of make sense if there's a new Avatar movie coming out in December. That would be perfect time to make a pinball machine based on it. But I really am hoping and praying that Jersey Jack games are not this simplified moving forward. I think if they do that, I think they're going to run into a real issue. There's two games that are really hard to look at for me. It's a $9,000 Godzilla premium and then it's $6,000 more dollars to get a Toy Story CE. And which is the better game? Which is the better game? If you want to talk about fun and you want to talk about flow and you want to talk about this and you want to talk about code and shots, Godzilla Premium is a better pinball experience than Toy Story. It's more fun. It's got more flow. It's got more code. It's got more toys. It's got more of everything. So why would you spend $6,000 more? You know, they don't want you to ask these questions. You know, FOMO is an interesting thing. I'm not going to do this. I am not going to support stripping stuff out of games and then I'm not going to spend my hard earned money on this game. I think now is a good time to officially announce I'm walking away from Ultraman. I'm not buying Ultraman number 500. I'm not going in on it. I wish Spooky would let me roll over that $2,000 on to like Scooby-Doo, but there's no way I'm cutting them a check for eight grand for Ultraman. It doesn't have it. They don't deserve 10 grand for that game. So I'm going to wait. I'm going to wait. I'm going to save $15,000 by not buying Toy Story CE. I'm going to lose $2,000 on Ultraman, but the lesson learned, the lesson I've learned is more valuable to me than that. I'm not chasing these games sight unseen. I'm not buying all these games to try to make a buck on them because if you spend $2500 on a Toy Story CE, you might not be able to flip it. You might not be able to even get back $15,000 for it by the time they make it. Think about that. They're not making this game for four months. So you might sit on that order. Everybody might get an LE. Everyone might play the game, have fun with it, but also realize I don't need to own it. What are you going to do? You're either going to lose that $2500 deposit, then you got to send in a check for $13,500 in the middle of a recession that's going to come and hit people real hard. Again, if you're going to spend $15,500 with tax on a game, doesn't that have to be a dream theme for you? Like a dream game, a dream experience? Are you seeing it in this game? You might be, and I'm happy if you are, but I just don't see it. All right, so let's move on from Toy Story because it's just going to be this. There's nothing left to talk about. The next thing is I'll play the game and I guarantee you I'm gonna have fun playing it. I'm just saying it right now. I'm gonna have fun. I'm just not buying it. So okay, so if we move on from Jersey Jack, let's go to Stern Pinball. So Stern Pinball has given new Godzilla code. The game keeps getting better and better and better and I think Godzilla Ellie is gonna be a game that just keeps going up and up in value. I probably sold mine too early at 16,000. There are a thousand of them out there. Out there, but Godzilla keeps shaping up to be maybe the best Stern pinballmachine of all time. And I'm going to say it right now. It is shaping up to be maybe one of the best pinballmachines overall of all time. And I think the team with Keith Elwin that Stern has on his games is the best team in pinball right now. They might be the best team ever assembled to make pinballmachines. Because what I love about the team that Keith is working with, it's not just Keith. I think what makes his games so special and his team's games so special is I think they have a real vision for the game. I don think they do one piece at a time I think he goes into each game knowing everything he would want from a rule standpoint from a design standpoint from a toy standpoint Everything feels so cohesive that when a Keith Elwin game comes out, it just checks every single box. And I think other games don't do that. And I think at these price points, you don't want any compromises. You want to make sure they get it all right. I mean, look at the code in Godzilla. It might be one of the best codes that's ever been in a pinball machine and everything works so perfectly together. I don't hear any complaints about this game. I mean yeah there's a few tweaks here and there but for the most part this is what we want. Can you imagine if Spooky Pinball made Godzilla? Can you just imagine? I mean just imagine like the layout for Halloween in Ultraman being turned into Godzilla Pinball. That would be like a metaverse world you don't want to live in. So Stern Pinball is crushing it with Godzilla. I'm hearing a lot of good stuff about Rush. I think people are playing Rush more and more. I think they're really enjoying the layout. I think Rush Pinball shoots really good. I think Borg has made every Rush fan very happy and I think he's made a lot of people just enjoy how a game should shoot very happy. So that's exciting. I never thought I'd say this. I'm much more excited to see what's next from Stern Pinball than I am from Jersey Jack Pinball. I never felt that way. I always felt like the Jersey Jack launches were the big ones. That was the one where we were going to see everything that was possible in a pinball experience or innovations. I no longer feel that way. I'm more excited to see what Keith Elwin does next with Jaws and what James Bond is like and what Back to the Future is like and what Venom is like. Stern Pinball is going in the right direction. Jersey Jack is going in the wrong direction. That's just how I feel. And look, it's up to Jersey Jack to change our minds on the next game. So Stern Pinball, is it going to be Venom next? I think it is, but I think we might see James Bond sneak out in front of it. Here's what I heard that's happening over at Stern Pinball. This extra time during the delay to put out a new game has given each designer a lot more time to work on their games. So I think the next games that come out from Stern over the next 12 months might be some of the greatest pins they ever put out because they've had more time. And that's a good thing. And that's the other reason why people are so disappointed in Toy Story is Pat Lawler got the work on this for like three years. Like he had so much time to work on this game. And Jersey Jack Pinball only puts out one game every 18 months to two years. So that's why people are like, no, that's not good enough. Imagine if Stern Pinball said, look, we're going to put out just one game in 18 months and all of our greatest talent is going to work on it. It would blow away Toy Story. Stern Pinball usually has a new game every four months, people. It's amazing what they do and they're going in the right direction and I'm so bullish on Stern Pinball right now and I'm so bearish on JJP. So who's next? So Stern's got a lot coming but I think we're gonna have to wait till like August, September before any of it happens. So right now I think they're just gonna flood the market with Godzilla premiums. Alright, what's happening over at Spooky? So Spooky Pinball, they're still polishing Ultraman and Halloween. Again, I've lost interest. I have. If you get a game, I'm happy for you. I'm never unhappy for someone who's enjoying their pinball experience. Scooby-Doo is next. And I think that's going to be the theme they need, and I think it's going to be the title they need, and I think it's going to be the game that can win back all of the goodwill they've lost. Now they need to nail it. I don't think anyone's convinced Bug is a great designer yet. I don't think anyone's convinced this new team over at Spooky, right? A lot of the old talent left. I think they have to win people back. And if there's any title that can do that for them, it is Scooby-Doo. Now we might see a small run of TNA. They might run like 200 TNAs in between. But I'm hearing from a good source that Scooby-Doo is next from Spooky Pinball. So excited to see that game. Alright, let's go over to American Pinball, a company that I'm not seeing a lot of Legends of Valhalla unboxings. I don't know where the game is. Like, do you know where these games are? Like, where are the unboxings of these games? I've been hearing they're having a hard time getting cabinets, so we'll see if that's the issue. But everyone knows that there's one game that is going to show us if American Pinball knows what they're doing or not. And that is Dennis Nordman's game. This is it. Dennis Nordman and David Fix and Sophia and everyone over there. I think Franchi's working on the I hope you enjoyed this video. If you like it, please subscribe to my channel and hit the bell icon to get notified on all my new videos. Thank you so much for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. I will see you in the next video. Bye!