This Month's Pinball Market March 2025

LoserKid Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·12m 15s·analyzed·Feb 25, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

March 2025 pinball market analysis reveals Pinside data manipulation concerns and strong LE retention despite high pricing.

Summary

The host analyzes March 2025 pinball market data, investigating potential manipulation of Pinside's price-tracking system and revealing that unlisted games can still influence market averages. Gottlieb DMD games show mixed trends with Mario Andretti losing 32% YoY, while Freddy (A Nightmare on Elm Street) gains 14%. Stern Spike 2 market shows 150+ used games sold monthly, with LE titles like Godzilla and Jurassic Park retaining strong secondary market value and newer games selling more units.

Key Claims

Pinside's market price data includes unlisted games (not sold), using rolling 12-month averages that drop off monthly
high confidence · Ted Fidley from pinballprices.com confirmed that Pinside includes unsold listings in price calculations, rolling 12-month windows
Over 150 Stern Spike 2 games sold on used market in last month/month-and-a-half
high confidence · Host stated '150 games sold' when analyzing Stern market data
Mario Andretti is the only Gottlieb DMD to lose value since COVID, down 32% YoY to $1,700
high confidence · Host provided specific pricing data: $2,500 last year, currently $1,700, down 6% in 5 years from $1,800
Godzilla LE currently averaging $14,400, higher than original LE release pricing
medium confidence · Host stated individual sales of $13,250 and $16,000 with average $14,400, but emphasized these numbers are ballpark depending on condition
Foo Fighters Premium moved 7 units in last month, unusually high volume
high confidence · Host noted this is 'quite the number' compared to typical 1-3 unit monthly sales

Notable Quotes

“Can you manipulate the pinball market by just tossing whatever ads you wanted on there? Say you wanted your Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles to look really good for the secondary market, so you put it on there for $90,000. It would take that into account regardless if you sold it or not.”
Host (Josh) @ ~7:30 — Core investigation question about market manipulation via fake listings
“You'd have to create multiple fake accounts to really crash Pinside and the system that they have. But he could see where I was coming from with my concern.”
Ted Fidley (pinballprices.com) @ ~8:45 — Expert validation of manipulation concerns; explains mitigation through data distribution
“So if there was no game sold, that's why it's showing less games—from 54 to 53.”
Ted Fidley (pinballprices.com) @ ~6:30 — Explains Pinside methodology that initially confused host
“This is the only game on this list that has actually lost value since COVID. So I guess if you're taking a bet, don't bet on Mario Andretti.”
Host (Josh) @ ~11:20 — Key finding: Mario Andretti's unique negative trajectory among Gottlieb DMDs
“The newer the game, the easier it's going to be to find. And these are used numbers—these aren't new in box selling from a dealer.”
Host (Josh) @ ~22:30 — Market trend observation: newer titles move faster through secondary market

Entities

Ted Fidleypersonpinballprices.comproductPinsideproductFlippin' Out PinballcompanySilver Ball SwagcompanyTwippiesevent GottliebcompanyStern PinballcompanyTeed OffgameWiped Outgame

Signals

?
product_concern: Potential for price manipulation via fake listings on Pinside despite rolling 12-month averaging protection
medium · Host identified scenario where high-price listings (e.g., $90k TMNT) could influence averages; Ted Fidley acknowledged concern but noted mitigation through data distribution
$
market_signal: Newer Stern titles show significantly higher secondary market velocity (5-10 units/month) vs. older titles (1-3 units)
high · Host tracked Foo Fighters Premium (7 sold), Jurassic Park Premium (6 sold), X-Men (10/7 for Pro/Premium) vs. Bond/Led Zeppelin (1-2 sold)
$
market_signal: Gottlieb DMD games showing differentiated trajectories: Freddy up 14% YoY (+60% since COVID), Mario Andretti down 32% YoY (only loser)
high · Specific YoY percentage tracking for 6 Gottlieb titles; Mario Andretti unique negative performer since COVID baseline
$
market_signal: Over 150 Stern Spike 2 games sold in one month on secondary market, indicating strong recent-title liquidity
high · Host explicitly stated '150 games sold' when analyzing Stern market data; noted newer games sell 5-10 units monthly while older titles sell 1-3
$
market_signal: Limited Edition games (Godzilla, Jurassic Park) retaining/exceeding original retail prices on secondary market
high · Godzilla LE averaging $14,400 exceeds original LE release pricing; Jurassic Park LE up 5% to $11,400 with high sales of $12,000

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.037

0:00

Is it possible to manipulate the pinball market numbers? Last month's Stern spiked two numbers and Gottlieb DMDs. It is this month's pinball market.

0:30

All righty. Starting out, I want to thank our sponsor, Flippin' Out Pinball, Zach and Nicole Menny. Thank you so much for supporting our content, making this possible. And if you're looking for new games and used games, they have it all. Just hit up Zach. He'll tell you what he's got. Or you can go to their Facebook page. They have a current list there. And everything to your heart's content should be there. And he's taking trade-ins. So talk to him about those. Silver Ball Swag. I'm not wearing a Loser Kid shirt, but I am wearing their pinball. Nintendo shirt. If you want to get our new retro Loser Kid, the 8-bit is available now. Also, I want to say congratulations to the Twippy winners. You all did an amazing job. Also, those that put on the show. It is very hard to put on those award shows. There's a lot of time and effort goes into it. And so I totally understand what it means to do something like that when I feel like I did half the job they did this year. Congratulations, you guys.

1:25

All right. The question I posed at the very beginning, is it possible to manipulate the pinball market and the prices where they're at. So as I was going through the Stern spike two numbers this last month, because I wanted to see where the current market is heading. And Stern seems to be selling the most on the used market. I figured they're the best ones to track. So I figured let's go there with the numbers. But something started not adding up. I'm looking at, you know, from one month, 54 games sold. The next month, 53 games sold. And I knew there wasn't that many games selling in one month. So I'm like, well, why did we go back a number? And so I called Ted Fidley from pinballprices.com. And the way his site works is he records only sold games, anywhere from auctions up to what Pinside's doing. And he's doing a great job with that. And I said, Ted, my brain hurts. He says, Josh, you probably need to call a doctor for that. I said, I appreciate that, but let me tell you what I'm starting to find. I'm going back through the pinball market numbers on pin side and they're not adding up i'm going through archive games uh ones that i've actually sold and the numbers are fluctuating really weird like one month no game sold at all yet the value of that game dropped five hundred dollars what's going on here so he's like give me a day let me figure it out he texts me the next day he says first off it doesn't matter if it's sold or not the price is included in their data so that means if you list a game and it doesn sell it doesn matter They including it in their data On newer models they sell frequently enough that the cells average update monthly so it uses a rolling 12 months of usage so you know november 2024 to october 2023 and then every month it does that drops last month off as the new month so if there was no game sold that's why it's showing less games from 54 to 53 i said ted thank you for figuring that out by then i posed this question can you manipulate the pinball market by just tossing whatever ads you wanted on there? Say you wanted your Ninja Turtles to look really good for the secondary market, so you put it on there for $90,000. It would take that into account regardless if you sold it or not. And Ted said, you'd have to create multiple fake accounts to really crash Pinside and the system that they have. But he could see where I was coming from with my concern. So I wanted to point that out for transparency because it kind of is interesting that you could, based off these numbers, kind of mess with what's going on on their data. I don't think that's what's happening, especially after going through all the archived ads and whatnot. There's just too many ads that kind of flush out the not sold posted for a high number. All righty, what you're here for, the numbers that make you wonder what's going on with this market. All right, first we're going to start off with Gottliebs. They only had 19 DMD games before they closed their doors from 1992 to 96. Their games are not revered as the best games on the market. This isn't your Valley Williams or whatnot. But I know a lot of you out there are looking for games that are more modern. So DMD is a good place to start. We're not LCD like behind me, but we're still newer code sets, you know, with those nineties, uh, rules and stuff like that. All right. Let's talk about the first game that is trending down. First game is teed off. Uh, it is currently sitting at 3000 on the secondary market is down 14% from last year, but, uh, you know, we're still up from COVID 43%. It was originally 2100 back then. We're at three grand right now. Second one trending down is wiped out right now sitting at 3100 down 11 from last year from 3500 and but it's still up 55 from was pre-covid so 2020 which was at 2000 all right and the last game that's down trending right now if you're looking for modern dmd you might consider this one this is one of the most recent dmds from gottlieb before they closed the doors it was mario and ready right now 1700 is at the current average on the used market. It's down 32% from last year. It was at 2,500.

5:44

In the last five years, it's down 6% from 1,800. This is the only game on this list that has actually lost value since COVID. So I guess if you're taking a bet, don't bet on Mario Andretti. All right, let's talk about what's going up. Barb Wire. A lot of people love this Pamela Anderson theme is up 7 in the last year going from 2 to three grand is still up 36 from 2020 at which was at $2,200. The second one that is up, this one kind of shocked me. I actually really enjoy this game strikes in spares. It's kind of a goofy game. It's not really pinball, but it is because it's bowling theme, but you're mostly shooting lanes. It is basically a bowling game and a pinball machine. so I don't know if I really should include this in this list but I'm going to tell you anyway Strikes and Spares is on the up and up is at 2700 this year which is up eight percent from last year at 2500 and it's up a whopping 108 percent when it was at 1300 at covid pre-covid all right the third and final game that has the biggest jump in the last year uh Freddy a Nightmare on Elm Street jumping 14% over the last year, going from 3,500 to four grand and overall 60% from COVID prices of 2,500 there in 2020. Those are your Gottlieb numbers. If you're, like I said, if you're looking for those games or you're starting, you want to get into the hobby. These, these are games that you can buy that are going to help retain value or not fluctuate terribly by a couple of hundred bucks. And it's showing that over the last five years, uh, let's move on to numbers. You guys really want to know. So what has Stern been doing over the last month, month and a half? The reason I did Stern numbers is because they sell the most within a month or two on the used market. So it gives us a good idea of where the market is trending from month to month. One crazy thing I want to point out about these numbers for Stern Spike 2s over this last month and a half is over 150 games sold. That's just the used market. That's not including new in box. So there are a lot of these games moving right now. Like I said on previous episodes, I can't track these day-to-day. We're not selling enough games day-to-day or even week-to-week. A month is a pretty good idea when it comes to Sterns. So let's dive into these numbers. Down right now is Bond Pro. Bond Pro sold two last month. It dropped just a whopping 2% from $6,000 to $5,900. So you're not doing terrible right there. A lot of these are just small percentages. Led Zeppelin Pro is our second worst drop from last year or from last month, not last year. You get off those Gottlieb numbers. But Led Zeppelin Pro dropped 4% with going from 5,400 to 5,200, only selling one last month. And then the one that's taken the biggest hit, and I do say biggest hit, dropping a whopping 9% this last month because it only sold one uh elvira house of horse signature edition going from 20 grand to 18.3 so uh if you're sitting on an elvira signature still stay sitting on it enjoy that game all right on the up and up got uh guardians of the galaxy pro this game sold one last month and we went up 2 so from 6100 to uh the next one is deadpool premium which went up one percent as well but for these sold last month went from eight grand to 8100 on the average but one did sell for 9400 that is the thing some of these it depends on location it depends on uh on the the quality of the game you know i was looking at shadow the other day and just to kind of get an idea of what mine is worth. Saw one sell for 3,700, but it was a project game. And I saw one sell in pretty good condition for six. So really these are ballparks of where the averages are. Okay, finally, the one that you want, actually I've got two that I want to talk about. Two more that are on the up and up.