claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.039
Kaneda analyzes pinball pricing, Toy Story's market failure, and boutique competition heading into 2023.
Kaneda's podcast (Canada's Pinball) has approximately 716 episodes not including deleted content.
high confidence · Kaneda stated directly when asked how many episodes he has: 'I think 716, not including the deleted episodes and the drunken rants I've had to take down.'
Spooky's TNA game originally sold for $6,000 about four years prior and is now priced at $9,000 — a 50% price increase.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'that game sold three years ago for $6,000. So you're telling me three years later, four years later, I think it was four years ago. It's now 50% more money.'
Spooky sold over 100-150 TNA games in the first hour but did not sell out all 250 units on the initial sale date.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'they had a successful day. Don't get me wrong. I think they sold over 100, maybe 150 in the first maybe hour. but here's the bigger damage happening... they didn't sell all 250 in one day. It's still not sold out.'
Jersey Jack's Toy Story CE was MSRP $15,000 but is now selling on the secondary market for $13,000 without buyers.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'the CE, which was MSRP at 15 grand, now on the used market, new in box, people are trying to sell them for 13 without buyers.'
Jersey Jack's Toy Story LE priced at $12,000 is now selling on secondary market for $10-10.5K.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'you got the LE, which is 12,000, which are now selling for around 10 to 10.5.'
Jersey Jack claimed to make $30 million in sales on Toy Story's day one launch.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'jack went on some podcast and said they made 30 million dollars and sales in one day.'
Spooky has sold approximately 1,750 units of their recent game (likely Ultraman or Halloween) in one day.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Spooky's making a lot of money and they deserve it. They made it work. They made a company that couldn't even sell 150 games all the way up to a company that now sold out of 1,750 in one day.'
Kaneda predicts Stern will dominate the pinball market in 2023 and no boutique manufacturer has a strong competitor title coming.
“I think primarily, I think I say stuff that is upsetting to the manufacturers. And I think if you love pinball, you are going to want to sort of celebrate most of what goes on in pinball.”
Kaneda @ early in episode — Explains Kaneda's philosophy and why he's controversial in the community.
“making fun of Bo Peep and Jersey Jack pinball for a $15,000 game that has about $6,000 in it. I'll poke the bear because it's fun.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Direct criticism of Jersey Jack's Toy Story pricing strategy; claims cost-to-price mismatch.
“If the game is great, it should sell out in minutes. What if they don't show it again? What if it's a similar? I don't think people I don't think people are going to just throw like let's say it's Scooby-Doo hypothetically right and they just say our next game is Scooby-Doo on the heels of Ultraman and Halloween they won't sell 1250 or 1750 Scooby-Doos sight unseen anymore I think Spooky lost the privilege to sell something sight unseen now”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Predicts Spooky's future game sales will suffer due to lack of product transparency on Halloween/Ultraman launches; signals loss of consumer trust.
“You've got something people want. Make it. ... if they're smart, they've got to rerun Pirates. It's like the silliest thing ever.”
Kaneda @ discussing Jersey Jack strategy — Recommends Jersey Jack leverage high-demand older titles to recover from Toy Story decline.
“One good game is better than five years of mediocre crap, right? One Godzilla is better than seven boutique games that you want to get rid of in six months.”
Kaneda @ closing philosophy — Core philosophy on quality over quantity in boutique pinball manufacturing.
“The problem with Jersey Jack right now... on day one, wasn't the vibe a little different for Toy Story?... What's happened to the price of the game, though? Well, it went up... the CE, which was MSRP at 15 grand, now on the used market, new in box, people are trying to sell them for 13 without buyers.”
Kaneda and Drew @ Toy Story discussion — Illustrates secondary market collapse and demand deterioration for Toy Story post-launch.
product_concern: Jersey Jack Toy Story experiencing rapid secondary market price collapse: CE from $15K MSRP to $13K used (no buyers), LE from $12K to $10-10.5K, indicating demand flatline post-launch despite claimed $30M day-one sales.
high · Kaneda: 'the CE, which was MSRP at 15 grand, now on the used market, new in box, people are trying to sell them for 13 without buyers.' 'you got the LE, which is 12,000, which are now selling for around 10 to 10.5.'
market_signal: Pinball manufacturers aggressively raising MSRP (Spooky TNA +50% over 4 years, JJP Toy Story at $15K CE) without corresponding product improvements, creating secondary market risk and consumer resistance.
high · Kaneda: 'you're going to destroy your business and you're going to destroy your brand pretty quickly' when manufacturers try to capture scalper/flipper margins. Discussion of Rolex pricing strategy vs. pinball manufacturers' approach.
product_concern: Spooky's Halloween and Ultraman perceived as incomplete games due to insufficient coding/software engineering resources. Two-game-per-year strategy backfired due to inadequate R&D personnel.
high · Kaneda: 'It was like two separately coded games with the same design. Right. Look at look at how that went for them. They clearly didn't have enough coders and software engineers to really do it right.'
sentiment_shift: Spooky lost consumer trust to purchase games sight unseen after Halloween/Ultraman non-refundable deposit strategy (locked 1,750 deposits with minimal gameplay reveal pre-launch). Kaneda predicts next game (Scooby-Doo) will not sell out without transparent product preview.
high · Kaneda: 'I think Spooky lost the privilege to sell something sight unseen now' and 'they won't sell 1250 or 1750 Scooby-Doos sight unseen anymore.'
groq_whisper · $0.253
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I just think Stern is going to clobber everybody next year. I do. I just, you know, I don't know who's got a great game on the horizon that's going to compete with what Stern has coming.'
Disney is holding off on renewing licenses for Tron and Pirates of the Caribbean until 2023 when they revisit those properties, and Tron Vault is expected as a strong rumor.
medium confidence · Drew: 'I heard that disney though is holding off on renewing licenses for tron and pirates of the caribbean until the year 2023 as that is when they are revisiting those properties which is why as canada has said on canada's pinball podcast um tron vault will be coming next year which is a strong rumor.'
Dialed In CE machines are currently selling for approximately $8,500 on the secondary market, significantly less than Toy Story CE at $15,000 MSRP.
high confidence · Kaneda and Drew discuss: 'they're about $8,500 now.' regarding Dialed In secondary market pricing.
“This is a poor man's exclusive. Kaneda is backtracking just a little bit here.”
Drew (host) @ mid-conversation — Self-aware meta-commentary on Kaneda's tendency to revise positions; running joke about Kaneda's flexibility.
“Whoa, whoa. Did you hear that? This is a poor man's exclusive. Kaneda is backtracking just a little bit here. Yeah. No, it's all I do. Come on. Come on. My life is always in reverse.”
Drew and Kaneda @ late episode — Humorous exchange revealing Kaneda's self-aware brand of reversing or softening critical stances.
business_signal: Jersey Jack distributors now holding unsold Toy Story inventory (CE and LE units), creating cash flow and warehouse risk. Distributors unable to move games at current pricing; potential for JJP to face restock delays and contract tensions.
medium · Kaneda: 'you've got distributors who are basically on the hook to buy all of these LEs and CEs... distributors sitting with a lot of inventory they can't move. That's not what a distributor wants.'
competitive_signal: Kaneda predicts Stern will dominate 2023 pinball market; no boutique manufacturer has competitive title pipeline to challenge Stern's three cornerstone releases per year.
medium · Kaneda: 'I just think Stern is going to clobber everybody next year. I do. I just, you know, I don't know who's got a great game on the horizon that's going to compete with what Stern has coming.'
design_innovation: Stern has cornered premium licensed IP; smaller manufacturers forced to pursue original IP (American Pinball, Dennis Nordman's Galactic Tank Force) which has historically struggled to match licensed game sales. Disney holding Tron/Pirates licenses pending 2023 property revisits.
high · Drew: 'Disney is holding off on renewing licenses for tron and pirates of the caribbean until the year 2023' and discussion of why original IP (Dialed In, Galactic Tank Force) underperform vs. licensed themes.
industry_signal: Spooky's Charlie handed company to his children; first games (Halloween/Ultraman) showed quality/management gaps; represents risk of founder-to-next-gen transitions in boutique pinball manufacturing.
medium · Kaneda: 'Charlie's handed the company over to his children, and that's great. It's the American dream. Are they capable of making a game that's worth $8,000 to $10,000 in the current marketplace?'
product_strategy: Kaneda recommends Jersey Jack leverage high-demand existing titles (Pirates, Wizard of Oz) rather than launch new titles at inflated pricing. Remastered games have proven secondary market hold compared to new launches.
medium · Kaneda: 'You've got something people want. Make it... if they're smart, they've got to rerun Pirates.' Discussion of WoZ consistently selling $12K+ used and Dialed In at $8.5K vs. Toy Story CE at $13K used.
licensing_signal: Unclear which manufacturer owns Sonic the Hedgehog pinball license. David Fix (American Pinball) claims Stern doesn't have it; speculation that Raw Thrills (connected to Stern family) may hold it, creating complex IP control landscape.
low · Drew/Kaneda: 'Who do you think has the theme to Sonic the Hedgehog? It's got to be Stern... David Fix said Stern doesn't have it, but someone took it.'
manufacturing_signal: Boutique manufacturers structurally limited to one game per year at 1,500 units scale ($12M revenue at $8K MSRP) due to software coding bottlenecks, not manufacturing capacity. Two-games-per-year fantasy unsustainable without doubling R&D team.
medium · Kaneda: 'if you're a successful year for you is selling 1,500 games a year... you only need one game a year... you need to have the right amount of personnel in the R&D department to make it work.'