Episode 750: "Those Waiting Are Winning"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 41s·analyzed·Dec 12, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Kaneda: waiting to buy pinball machines beats pre-orders; Scooby-Doo will be easy to get and cheaper later.

Summary

Kaneda argues that waiting to purchase new pinball machines, specifically Spooky's Scooby-Doo, is financially and experientially superior to pre-ordering with non-refundable deposits. He contends that early buyers face unfinished code, limited gameplay knowledge, high prices, and will ultimately pay more than patient buyers who can purchase used NIB machines at discounts or wait for secondary market opportunities. He criticizes Spooky's use of incomplete code justifications and highlights the risk of a rookie coder (DJ) replacing experienced developers.

Key Claims

Spooky Pinball will make over 1,500 Collector's Editions of Scooby-Doo, making it never hard to get
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing production volume and market saturation for the game
Spooky Pinball needs 18 months to produce all Scooby-Doo games ordered, so late depositors won't receive their game for ~6 months
medium confidence · Kaneda, explaining production timeline and delivery delays
DJ is a rookie coder handling Scooby-Doo's software, replacing experienced developers Bowen Kerins and David Van Es Forsman who are no longer with Spooky
high confidence · Kaneda, directly stating personnel changes and comparing DJ's experience to Lyman Sheets' 30 years of pinball coding
Spooky's claim about waiting for licensor approval on code is 'absolute BS' and actually means the code is buggy and not far along
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion, speculating about manufacturer motives for not showing code
Scooby-Doo Collector's Edition will retail for over $12,500, and machines like Toy Story are overpriced for what's included
high confidence · Kaneda, citing MSRP and comparing value across recent Spooky releases
People who waited to buy machines are winning financially; example: Elvira 40th dropped from $25,000 to $18,000 within months
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing historical market data on secondary market pricing
Early Scooby-Doo depositors will be able to get the game cheaper later through NIB secondary market sales from people who can't keep their machines
medium confidence · Kaneda, predicting life-event driven sales and secondary market availability
Ben Heck and TNA (machines) did not sell out despite expectations, still available for purchase today
high confidence · Kaneda, citing recent sales precedent to debunk FOMO

Notable Quotes

“The three best words are wait and see.”
Kaneda @ Opening — Core thesis statement; the entire episode's central message
“This is the new excuse by a manufacturer when the code is not ready... If your code is straight down the middle a pinball show to the license holder for approval, then you have no business taking money from consumers yet.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Calls out manufacturer transparency and ethics; attacks a common justification for incomplete games
“You can't compare a rookie coder like DJ to Lyman Sheets or Lonnie over at Stern. I mean Stern has an army of people that are over there helping them on stuff.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Directly critiques code quality risk and staffing disparity between Spooky and Stern
“Pinball machines are really hard to code. Pinball machines with a lot of assets are even harder to code.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Emphasizes technical complexity as reason to wait for post-launch refinement
“The game didn't sell out. Ben Heck, TNA didn't even sell out. And here they are still available to buy today.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Refutes scarcity narrative; shows recent games remain available despite hype
“I think a distributor is going to tell you on their podcast that you should buy, buy, buy... but we need the balance. Those waiting are the ones who are winning.”
Kaneda @ Closing — Positions Kaneda as counter-voice to industry sales incentives; stakes claim as consumer advocate
“For this much money there's no more excuses, right? You're spending $12,000 on a spooky machine. Everything about it should be damn good. There's no more room for mediocrity at these prices.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Sets expectation bar for premium-priced games; implies Scooby-Doo has mediocrity risk
“Everyone who's waited over the last few years, everyone who's waited are the people who are winning when it comes to new in box pinball purchases.”

Entities

Spooky PinballcompanyScooby-Doogame Kanedaperson DJperson Bowen KerinspersonDavid Van Es ForsmanpersonLyman SheetspersonLonnieperson

Signals

?
product_concern: Kaneda claims Scooby-Doo's code is incomplete and that manufacturer excuses about licensor approval are false; cites absence of code demos as evidence of bugs and unfinished work
medium · Kaneda: 'It because it buggy. It because it not far along. Otherwise they would show it to you.'
?
personnel_signal: Bowen Kerins and David Van Es Forsman, experienced designers/coders, are no longer with Spooky; DJ (rookie coder) is handling Scooby-Doo's software as his first pinball game
high · Kaneda: 'no longer in the spooky design is Bowen Kerins in the rule set, David Van Es, Forsman, the coder who did their other games, is no longer there.'
$
market_signal: Early premium machine buyers face significant price depreciation; Elvira 40th dropped $7,000 (from $25K to $18K); patient buyers can acquire NIB machines below MSRP
high · Kaneda: 'Elvira 40th. A few people bought in at $25,000. A few months later you could get the machine for $18,000.'
?
product_concern: Scooby-Doo Collector's Edition priced over $12,500 with 1,500+ units planned; Kaneda predicts inability to maintain value and easy secondary market availability
medium · Kaneda: 'All the stars have to align for this game to go up in value because there's so many of them.'
?
rumor_hype: Recent rush to pre-order Scooby-Doo driven primarily by FOMO; game did not sell out as predicted; Ben Heck and TNA also remain available
high · Kaneda: 'I think a lot of these people who ran to buy a Scooby Doo last week, I think they're waking up and realizing the game's not sold out.'

Topics

Pre-order strategy and consumer financial riskprimarySpooky Pinball's Scooby-Doo machine: code readiness and development timelineprimaryPersonnel changes at Spooky (departure of experienced developers)primarySecondary market pricing and depreciation dynamicsprimaryMachine FOMO and sales hype tactics by manufacturersprimaryPricing of premium pinball machines ($12,000+ range)secondaryProduction capacity and delivery timelines for new gamessecondaryPinball code complexity and developer experience disparitysecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is critical and skeptical of Spooky's Scooby-Doo release, manufacturing transparency, pricing strategy, and early buyer behavior. He is protective of consumer interests and dismissive of FOMO-driven purchasing. However, he expresses enthusiasm for the waiting strategy and respect for certain industry figures like Ken Cromwell. His tone is advisory and frustrated with perceived manufacturer deception, not hostile.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.056

All right everybody welcome to Canadian spin ball podcast I'm here to tell you right now the three most valuable words in all of pinball if you want to make the best decision you can make it's not bye bye bye those are three of the worst The three best words are wait and see. Let's talk about why waiting and seeing is the smartest move you can make. And I think a lot of these people who ran to buy a Scooby Doo last week, I think they're waking up and realizing the game's not sold out. So look, we knew there was going to be some FOMO, but there was no way Spooky Pinball The Scooby-Doo I mean there's not even that many grown Men who wear cargo shorts to order all of these games who are grown men But we're gonna have a promotion on the end of this podcast about cargo shorts get ready for it There's not that many grown men that wake up and consider Scooby-Doo a dream theme From the gameplay standpoint let's talk about why waiting and seeing was a smart move sections which are both simple. Enter a five coment on how to invested on a PINBALL at RGBa lofe. We add a link into the comment section if you want. Well, I think I�m going to spend most of my time on the topic of the För mathematical questions and answers for our three suggestions that I read last week. First, the number two tip is really helpful, which means you actually have to put the numbers that are communicated it in your hands. So, I will love it when I get to spend and look for the number three part of the questions.Gary Rawr, Claresh dni Adamoy Blunder discussion Subtitles by.' YongFenderM 있게01' Subtitles by The Sangue of JavaScript The end of the day, I'm going to tell you why I think it was a kind of silly move, because now you have no options. So think about the options now in front of the people who are going to wait and see. I'm gonna tell you something right now that nobody wants to admit because I've been in this hobby long enough and I've seen what's gonna happen next. Think about it like this. Spooky Pinball needs 18 months to make all of these games. So imagine if you gave a nonrefundable deposit and you're somewhat late on that list of games. Let's say you're not one of the first 500 games they make. That means you're not even gonna get your game for like maybe six months. And in that six month period, you're going to be able to jump on the machine and play it. So the person who is waiting and seeing, they'll be able to play the game, see if they actually enjoy the gameplay features in the game, see how far along the code is, and that person who waited, now they have the option, right? They can decide, do I want to buy one or do I want to pass on it? That's the thing is like, why would you eliminate that option? And here the funniest part about all of this and this is the dirty little secret I seen in this hobby for so many years If you wait it I gonna tell you right now you gonna be able to get a Scooby Doo before the majority of people that actually put a deposit on the game Has everybody forgotten what happens when it comes to pinball sales Here is what is going to happen Because a lot of these games are still with distributors and they need to sell those games that they committed to buying from Spooky I think Spooky probably gonna Conledon In the meantime, a small화утш Editor mentioned thisktetoon. covers only excerptsklärataktik Auchkeede Vacc . and you don't have to worry about them because those deposits are nonrefundable. Now look, I think those deposits might be nonrefundable with Spooky and not the distributor, but there's got to be some cut a distributor gets if someone walks away from a nonrefundable deposit. No, I mean there's got to be some protection. At least I hope there would be. I think you're going to see this happen a lot. I think the ability for people who waited to cut the line, if you will, is going to happen. Now here's the other part that's going to happen and we see this all the time. There are going to be people who bought this game and committed to buying this game with a deposit who are actually going to get the game and then they're going to have something happen in life like the electrical bill was too high or they bought too many cargo shorts this year and they have to like let the game go. And then what's going to happen is this, those gentlemen are going to offer the game for sale and it's going to be a game that they have new in box that you can The game is available for purchase and Get immediately. So there's going to be such an easier opportunity for people who waited to actually get the game well before people who have put deposits down. There's almost absolutely no reason why anyone should give a deposit unless you know you're going to be in that early batch of games. Because it's never going to be hard to get this game. A-C. The game features are not in the game. They are going to probably make over 1,500 collector's editions of this game. Have you seen the game features? They don't want anyone buying the standard version of this game. Everything is yanked out of it. There's no sculpts. There's no molds in the standard version of the game. They have made it so enticing to pick the collector's edition, which is great. There's a lot in it, but it's never going to be hard to get. And I can see it on pin side. It's like people don't want to admit this. The only reason you bought it last week was because of FOMO. Like you actually thought you were going to have to go in on this game on day one. And now they're waking up to the reality. The game didn't sell out. Heck, TNA didn't even sell out. And here they are still available to buy today. But I encourage you, don't even think about buying one yet. If you really want a Scooby Doo, you will be able to get a Scoobydoo without having to give a deposit. You will also be able to get one without having to buy it anytime over the next couple months. Now let's talk about what the actual consumer experience is going to be like for the first few hundred people who get this game. This is the other reason why you should have waited because look, they won people over with beautiful artwork and a lot of features, but you still don't know what the gameplay is. I'm like looking at the game itself. I'm telling you it's not gonna have some revolutionary gameplay, but that's not what the big mystery is in this game. The biggest mystery in Scooby-Doo is the coding and the software. I'm just calling a spade a spade. I think the whole like we're waiting on licensor approval is absolute BS. This is the new excuse by a manufacturer when the code is not ready. I'm gonna say something right now and this is why we're gonna win the six Twippy. If your code is The show to the license holder for approval, then you have no business taking money from consumers yet. You have absolutely no business revealing the game. You have no business taking money from people. You have no business locking people into a nonrefundable deposit. There a reason why they didn show you the code It not just because it waiting for license or approval It because it buggy It because it not far along Otherwise they would show it to you They are keeping it from everybody as they sell the game as they do backflips And look and look for the most part they got away with it again Like how many people actually gave a deposit and you haven even seen the code in this game once Look and I hope the team working on it knocks it out of the park but there no escaping this simple fact people Pinball machines are really hard to code. Pinball machines with a lot of assets are even harder to code. And we are talking about a rookie coder, DJ. This is his first game he's coding in the pinball world. When Lyman Sheets coded Batman 66, he had 30 years of experience coding pinball machines, working with assets, figuring out how to make everything work. And now we're getting a rookie coder. And no longer in the spooky camp is Bowen Kerins. C Bar),in the rule Set, David David Van Es, Fosma, the coder who did their other games, is no longer there. It's hard to get an answer where all these people went or why they left, but my point is this. This is the biggest mystery about this game. What will the code be? We've seen the shots, we've seen the layout, but software is almost equally important and there's so little they're showing you. And you can't compare a rookie coder like DJ to Lyman Sheets or Lonnie over at Stern. I mean Stern has an army of people that are over there helping them on stuff. It's not just Lonnie doing it, they have a team of people who work on these games who know how to do this stuff. And so that's what's kind of crazy to me is that you would rush in and buy when you don't know what it's gonna be. And everybody else who waited is gonna have So many more options. If you wait it, you're going to be able to jump on this game in January and February and you're going to be able to see exactly what is in the game from a code standpoint. We're going to get feedback from customers who are going to get to flip the machine itself. We're going to hear about the quality. We're going to hear about everything. And come January, February, Spooky Pinball is no longer going to be able to hide behind five sizzle reel minutes. They can't hide behind a Merch Factor I'm a fan of the people who want to see more from a game before they make up their mind on the machine. I mean, I was just listening to a podcast in which Ken Cromwell said, I usually want to play a game 500 times before I make up my mind on a machine, which is great, cool, because if we all did that, nobody would have pre-ordered Toy Story. Nobody would pre-order any of these things. I'm not a fan of the word pinball, but I think Ken's advice is absolutely sound advice. You have to jump on these machines and play them a lot. And look, I still think Toy Story is a fun game to shoot, Ken. I know you're going to hear I said this, but man, it's just overpriced for what's in the machine itself. It's just where we're at. Oh, and speaking about overpriced, guys, I mean, to your door, a Spooky Pinball collector's Edition with butter cabinet is over $12,500. Over $12,500. So this is not like your cheap and cheerful thing and that is why you're easily going to be able to get this game over the next two years for probably less than MSRP. All the stars have to align for this game to go up in value because there's so many of them. All the stars have to align for this game finally to give us a spooky machine that does everything right. For this much money there's no more excuses, right? You're spending $12,000 on a spooky machine, $11,000 on a spooky machine. Everything about it should be pretty damn good. The code should be great. The layout should be great. The toys should be great. Everything should be great. There's no more room for mediocrity at these prices. The wise people are all waiting on the sidelines I think I talking to the majority of you I think the majority of you are waiting to see what this game shakes up to be I think the majority of you are waiting to play it I don think any of us are going to be able to play it Quote of Excerpt Da truly Triteаш SPÚSHES J sideson't talk about popcorn Keys and Atlanta the soccer sportきた is to see Wireless by that quite er ye ist entwos kannst señal Gyorda breast anniers sugく If nonrefundable deposits are gonna come to an end, I think people are gonna start to realize now too, because there's so many games, you're gonna be able to get one for much cheaper than MSRP. And I don't care what anyone says, because here's the thing, I hate it when people say, well I like the game and it's fun. Yeah, but wouldn't it be more fun to buy the game that you love for even less money? Think about this, I always talk to my friends who have Ultraman, they're like, I really like my Ultraman. jurisdictions modify avenues,coutoninec 이름 methods of insiders and你们 with pepperonny午 John papadiuk blog psychiatry of design interface logging,Pianism of scienceYou tell Bruce Granica English난 you innocent. You see? You make me sad, you arsehole, I suggest you wear 3YK YA bullets strean talking about pinballíphyPD SCHEDICH orbADWPGI, and we will forget about that as well on I am going to release Canadian Pinball Podcast cargo shorts. I will also, and this is crazy for me because I'm a man of style. I will also accept the Twippy Award in cargo shorts, which sucks because that means I don't know if I'm going to win or not until I get to the Twippies themselves. And I'm going to have to pair one of my Gucci or purple label Ralph Lauren tuxedo jackets with a pair of cargo shorts. That What alone, ladies and gentlemen, is enough entertainment value to get your votes. We're not gonna buy votes. I know you're gonna vote for Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Your children will vote. Your wives will vote. We're all gonna vote for Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. We are going to send the greatest message ever this year when Kaneda's Pinball Podcast takes home the six Twippy. Everybody thank you so much for tuning in. Let me know what your thoughts are on this podcast. And here's the other part. I think this Thursday we're going to see this Keith Elwin machine and it's going to be another example. Don't run to the flame. Don't run into the fire and buy this game right away. Remember everybody, remember what happened with Elvira 40th. A few people bought in at $25,000. A few months later you could get the machine for $18,000. Those people lost $7,000 and they would not have lost So puzzle puzzle puzzles. Press code epic codeme I think a distributor is going to tell you on their podcast that you should wait before you buy the game, that you should play the game and make sure it's the right game for you before you buy it. And this is the thing, we need both sides of it. And I get it, like if I was a distributor and I had a podcast, I would tell you to buy, buy, buy. I would be a perpetual salesman, but we need the balance. I'm telling you right now, those waiting are the ones who are winning. I'm going to repeat that. Everyone who's waited over the last few years, everyone who's waited are the people who are winning when it comes to new in box pinball purchases. Later. In the minutes,abulary For those who was... want to... to join in, please subscribe brush sens. His English enfin콘 lead