Episode 743: "Will The Elwin Bond Backfire?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·28m 7s·analyzed·Nov 27, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda warns Keith Elwin Bond LE will backfire due to inflated pricing, limited features, and market saturation of expensive games.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the upcoming Keith Elwin James Bond 60th Anniversary Limited Edition pinball machine, expressing concern about its pricing strategy, lack of features relative to cost, and potential market backlash. He argues that Stern is using manufactured scarcity and FOMO to inflate prices while offering limited mechanical innovation, and predicts the game will frustrate collectors more than excite them, particularly those who already committed to the standard Bond LE. He also reflects on broader pricing trends in pinball and questions whether machines are delivering proportional value.

Key Claims

The Keith Elwin Bond 60th Anniversary is a single-level game with 10-11 drop targets and 4 spinners, featuring mechanical scoring reels and a 3D Odd Job hat spinning device
high confidence · Kaneda citing official information from Stern's announcements and promotional materials
Only 500 units are being produced for the 60th Anniversary edition at $13,000 LE price, with distributors expected to price it at $20,000-$25,000
high confidence · Kaneda referencing Stern's listed pricing and predicting dealer markup strategy based on past precedent (Elvira)
James Bond's code is severely incomplete—only 2 out of 6 villains are programmed as of the announcement
high confidence · Kaneda stating this as observed fact about current game state
George Gomez claims the game has a shot mechanic never before seen in pinball
medium confidence · Kaneda citing Gomez's public statements; specificity not verified
Stern will not set a manufacturer price and instead allow dealers/distributors to 'collude' on pricing, following the Elvira model
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on 'call for price' listing; acknowledges this is speculation on business strategy
Kaneda will not play James Bond until March/April 2023 because the code will not be complete until spring 2023 at earliest
medium confidence · Kaneda's personal decision and prediction based on code completion timeline observation
Spooky Pinball's TNA machines are shipping with significant quality control issues, including re-drilled playfield holes, and are not worth the $2,500 premium over the original TNA
medium confidence · Kaneda referencing customer reports and images on PinSide threads
Kaneda predicts if the Bond 60th is priced at $20,000-$25,000, it will not sell out in day one, week one, or even month one despite dealer allocation
low confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on perceived market saturation and price point; explicitly speculative

Notable Quotes

“There is no way this code is going to be where they want it to be in two months. Right now in the game itself there are only two villains out of six coded into the game.”
Kaneda @ ~13:00 — Highlights incomplete code state at launch, casting doubt on George Gomez's timeline promises
“I'm not a buyer for this pin at anywhere north of $10,000 and I'll tell you why because I don't care that much about James Bond to spend more than $10,000 on a pinball machine.”
Kaneda @ ~29:00 — Establishes Kaneda's personal threshold and signals skepticism about justifying premium pricing
“Mark my words right now, there is no way these things are going to sell out in day one or week one or month one.”
Kaneda @ ~26:00 — Direct prediction about market reception and sales velocity for the 60th Anniversary LE
“If you buy a James Bond for north of $20,000, you are going to lose. And I mean this.”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Strong warning to collectors about secondary market depreciation risk, referencing Beatles Diamond precedent
“This is going to be the moment we've all been feeling the pain and the pressure of these high prices... I think this is going to upset people more than it's gonna excite people.”
Kaneda @ ~17:00 — Core thesis: Bond 60th will be a watershed moment for market sentiment on pricing
“I don't think they're reading the room. I don't think they're really understanding what customers want anymore.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Criticism of Stern's strategic decision-making and market awareness
“The only thing that can save James Bond and make it a good game is good code. And guess what? Everyone's going to get the same exact code.”
Kaneda @ ~43:00 — Argues that Pro version is most intelligent purchase since all code is identical across tiers
“How can you now say that a pinball machine can deliver to you $20,000 in fun on a single machine or $25,000 or $18,000 in fun?”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson George GomezpersonMark PanaccopersonDavid FixpersonPanzer FreakpersonStern PinballcompanySpooky Pinballcompany

Signals

?
product_concern: Spooky Pinball TNA machines shipping with significant QC issues including re-drilled playfield holes under shooter rod area, making the $2,500 premium pricing unjustifiable
high · Customer reports and images on PinSide showing re-drilled holes; Kaneda describes it as 'inexcusable' and comparable to 'garage build quality'
?
product_concern: James Bond game launching with severely incomplete code—only 2 out of 6 villains programmed; Kaneda predicts code won't reach intended state until spring 2023
high · Kaneda directly observes only 2/6 villains coded; cites this as reason to delay personal play until March/April 2023; positions as 'still one of the sloppiest launches'
$
market_signal: Collectible pinball games experiencing sustained secondary market price inflation ($15,000-$20,000+) without corresponding feature additions; Beatles Diamond LE example of $25,000 purchases unable to resell at equivalent value
high · Kaneda cites Indiana Jones, Creature from Black Lagoon, Tales of Arabian Nights, Medieval Madness, Godzilla all inflated $5,000-$8,000 above release; Beatles Diamond precedent of depreciation
?
product_strategy: Bond 60th Anniversary uses explicit manufactured scarcity (500 units) and FOMO marketing to justify inflated pricing; Stern avoiding manufacturer price ('call for price') to allow dealer collusion
high · Kaneda identifies 'call for price' as signal of dealer coordination strategy (Elvira precedent); characterizes entire strategy as 'manufactured rare games' with pricing 'solely because of manufactured scarcity and manufactured FOMO'
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Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.084

0:00

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. It is Sunday and we are going to talk about on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast one singular topic. and that is this Keith Elwin 60th anniversary of James Bond and I want to talk about how this game I think is going to land in the pinball marketplace and what we know so far about the game and why is Stern stalling on showing us this game or at least giving it a price before they take all of this money on the 1,000 George Gomez LEs of James Bond. We're going to talk all about that. Before we get there, We're going to cover off on a few news items in the pinball world. But before I do that, I want to say to listener of the show who might not be a listener no more, Panzer Freak over there on pin side. And if you saw this thread, it's kind of funny. So here's a little context for everybody out there. Like, and I want to just address this real quickly. Panzer Freak traded his Ghostbusters Premium for a Toy Story Collector's Edition. and he's loving his Toy Story Collectors Edition but he didn't stop there. He started a thread about how he was wrong about Toy Story 4 because he ragged on the game even more than Kaneda's ragged on the game. And then people started to point out what a flip flop he has done on the machine itself which led me to introduce on my Kaneda Pinball merch site a pair of flipflops that have Panzerfreak's name on it You all have a sudden, he got mad by people coming at him. And I just want to say this, look. We're all grown men talking about Pinball. We all jab at each other every once in the while. Now look, if any of you out there are personally attacking this guy for falling in love with Toy Story 4, you should be ashamed of yourselves. Like, we should never personally attack anybody. You shouldn't be sending private PMs to people upset that they're shilling a game. Like, we know this happens and the pinball world. But I want to say this to Panzerfreak. Don't start a thread like that if you can't take the blowback that is going to happen because you are ostensibly now becoming a shill for the game and you took it further than it needed to go. Like you easily could have gone into the Toy Story owner's club and just said, hey, I made this deal. I'm really enjoying the game. I'm gonna see if this game has lasting value, but right now, I'm loving Toy Story 4. You didn't do that. You started your own thread and you wanted the spotlight and now you're up on stage and you can't be upset that some people are gonna throw some tomatoes because you said some really nasty stuff about the game. But here's the other part. Just let it roll off your shoulders if game tonight but before that we still found a Tonys Sinic, Hi everyone! History doiventro Shit, ActualPinball longtime Pyro Tajedom �Pintrodu dal MRID The game is going to be like Galactic Tank Force or SpaceForce or MustacheForce. It's going to be one of those three options. But here's the thing. I hope American Pinball, when they reveal this game, I hope the game is The game is on the line. I really hope David Fix and the team over there doesn't reveal this game without the game on the line and it's one of these like let's take your money now and then make you wait till like March to get the product. This won't work anymore. We need to get away from like pre-ordering the game and especially get away from showing the game too early. There is no benefit and I mean this, there is no benefit to showing a game early if the game is not on the line unless and the game isn't on the line or the game's not ready to be shown, I don't think you're going to get a lot of sales on an original IP game unless you really wow people and people are going to want to know when they're going to get their game. Now, speaking of getting their game, people are getting their TNAs from Spooky Pinball and I don't know if you've been following the thread, but the quality control issues on these TNAs is a big problem. Suit

6:32

The quality control issues alone. There is no way that these things are worth $2500 more than the original TNA and this company is still shipping games to customers with quality control issues to the point where they're re-drilling holes in the playfield? How are they re-drilling holes in the playfield? Shouldn every single playfield shouldn all the holes that are drilled from the factory sport intrafix teamons of Ra need to be I mean this feels like a garage build when people are showing images of their game and there like redrilled holes underneath the shooter rod area Like that inexcusable spooky You been in this game for almost a decade Stop it Get your act together Alright, so we're also seeing James Bond pros hit on location and when are we going to see L.E.'s? Now, L.E. should be on the line sometime in December, so that is going to happen. It is way too early for any of us to sort of make up our minds on James Bond. I'm hearing like both sides of the coin right now. I'm hearing people who play the game and love it. I'm hearing from people who play the game and think it's clunky. I don't know. I have to play the game myself. I have to jump on James Bond I'm going to tell you right now, I'm not going to play James Bond until like March or April. And the reason why I don't want to play the game until like March or April, can you guess why? Because the code is not going to be anywhere near done until the spring of 2023 at the earliest. Like I don't believe George Gomez when he says, well, the code is going to be where we want it to be in two months. There is no way this code is going to be where they want it to be in two months. Right now in the The game itself there are only two villains out of six coded into the game. So you think they're going to get the rest of it into the game within two months and by the time we see the next game from Stern which probably is going to be venom or it's going to be Jack Danger's next game, this game will not even be close to being code completed by the time we see the next reveal from Stern Pinball. Still one of the sloppiest launches of all time. Alright, let's talk about this Keith Elwin pinball machine. The game was released in late September, September 22, and when they announced James Bond, we got the surprise announcement that Kaneda broke to the world and I said it to everybody that there was going to be a fourth pin, it was going to be a Keith Elwin pin, and it was going to be a single level game. And that is exactly what it's going to be. It is a 60th anniversary version of James Bond. It comes with a topper. Here's what we know about the game. It's got mechanical scoring reels in the back box of the game and a small video display from the home editions on the playfield. The box contains the ghosted images like old school games such as Game Over. It was programmed by Mark Panacco, I hope I said his name right, who used to work at Williams Pinball and he came over to Stern in 2021. The game has a 3D molded odd job hat spinning device on the playfield along the lines of the tesseract from the original Stern Avengers pin. George Gomez has gone on the record by saying that this game has a shot that he's never seen before in pinball and it has lots of drop targets and spinners and I'm hearing there's something like 10 or 11 drop targets and 4 spinners. Now here's the part where it gets kind of scary. Here's what they're saying about the price for the game. Are you ready for it? Where the LE is $13,000, the 60th anniversary, which has 500 units in total, they're listing it as call for price. Okay, so let's just start there. Let's start with what I think is going to happen when people call for the price of this game. and I think just by seeing that phrase call for price we know that Stern pinball is going to chicken out they are not as a company going to put a price on this game they're going to do what happened with Elvira they're going to allow the dealers and the Distributors to get together and collude as a group and set the price of this game and I'm telling you right now this is going to be the moment we've all been feeling the pain and the pressure of these high prices and we've all been asking ourselves like are we getting our values worth in pinball and this is going to be the moment people when this game comes out and if it doesn't have a lot in it and I don't think it's going to have that much in it right it's not going to have more than a normal pinball machine in it when we see this game and then we see what the dealers price it at I think this is going to be the moment The game is a game-changer that creates a ripple effect through pinball unlike any other game launch we've ever seen and I mean it and here's why I think this is actually gonna upset people more than it's gonna excite people and I want to ask you right now who is this game for? This game is for the James Bond fanatic right? This game represents all 60 years of James Bond. Okay so then who is the James Bond Ellie for? So then who's the Sean Connery game for? Is passages bale, mis konkret, ones hanya a laund ie yet and alsoología and be absolutely disgusted with the hobby. We were disgusted when they did this with Beatles Diamond. We weren't as disgusted with Elvira because, you know, it was beautiful and it was still a fully featured game and it was a Lyman Sheets game. But now we've got a single level game with a bunch of drop targets and like just licensed artwork dropped all over the thing. It's not even like this is going to have a great art package. It's not going to have some incredible mech in the game. wer Shepherd I don think you gonna hear like callouts from all of the James Bond actors and all the villains maybe some of them but definitely not all of them but you should get it all if it this much money right so here what I think is gonna happen I think they gonna announce the title I think for the James Bond fanatics out there who already committed to an Ellie who are going to want this I think you gonna piss off those guys because here why Now you already spent on the version of James Bond that not going to be the collectible rare one right Nothing rare anymore with a thousand at least So you 14 in there and now you another to if you want to get the other version of the game And so look now you at maybe to own two Stern Pinball and PINBALL and also, the best way to win a pinball contest is to win a gold rookie, which is basically a gold rookie card. This is the Keith Elwin Gold James Bond version of pinball, and even though this might only cost Stern Pinball, let's just say hypothetically, how much do you think the bomb is gonna be on this game for Stern Pinball? Hypothetically, let's just give them the benefit of the doubt and say this bomb on a single A low-level game with these drop targets is going to cost Stern $6,500 per game to make. I don't see how it could cost more than that. From a pure bomb standpoint. And then they're going to charge $20,000 for it, $25,000 for the game. And I think what's going to happen is it's just going to leave a real sour taste in a lot of people's mouths. And the other thing I think is going to happen is this, if it's this much money, and I mean it, if If this game is $20,000 or $25,000, mark my words right now, there is no way these things are going to sell out in day one or week one or month one. They will sell through to all the dealers and distributors because guess what? Stern is not going to charge the dealers or distributors $20,000 or $25,000 to get the game. They're going to give this game to distributors and dealers for like $12,000 to $15,000 and then anything over that is money in the dealer's pocket. And this is my issue with these like manufactured rare games like this. You're not getting your money at all put into the game. The price you're paying for this game is solely because of the manufactured scarcity and the manufactured FOMO. If I'm going to spend $25,000 on a James Bond pinball machine, then I want the bomb for that machine to be somewhere around The game is not going to be great. I think the game is going to be a lot of fun. It's and the most recent one is Keith Elwyn. I have no more faith in someone than Keith Elwyn. But I think making Keith Elwyn part of this thing and putting him at the front of this James Bond 500 Limited Edition 60th Anniversary game that's going to be solely for the wealthy collector, I'm just not sure that's a good move for Keith Elwyn. I'm not even sure it's a good look for Stern Pinball and I mean it because what I think Stern is missing right now is I don't think they're reading the room. I don't think they're really The and distributors initially list them for $25,000. That's my bet. You're gonna see the initial list price be $25,000 and guess what? If you wait two months, I bet you're gonna be able to grab one for less than $20,000. And I'll tell you what, I'm not a buyer for this pin at anywhere north of $10,000 and I'll tell you why because I don't care that much about James Bond to spend more than $10,000 on a pinball machine. It's not a dream theme for me. I know a lot of people are saying, Kaneda, you're the reason we're here right now. People are saying that. They're like, you've been saying these companies are leaving money on the table. But what I always wanted, and I mean it when I say it, I wanted more games like Big Lebowski. I wanted more fully themed integrated pins, and I said people would pay more if you gave them more. But what's really been depressing me about the last like six months to a year in pinball is we're not getting anything more trending Following knew sorted and now when you see one go up for sale it's $20,000 or best offer. I mean people are asking $20,000 now for Indiana Jones and Creature from the Black Lagoon. You know now Tales of the Arabian Nights is $15,000. Every single Medieval Madness game now is $15,000 plus. Why? Why do you guys want this hobby all of a sudden to have everything be doubled in price without anything more going into the game? The only person who's going to make money and get any value out of it is going to be the distributor and Stern. The customer is going to lose out. Mark my words. If you buy a James Bond for north of $20,000, you are going to lose. And I mean this. When the dust settles, people, when Back to the Future comes out and Jaws and all these other Keith The game is a game that is absolutely plummets in value. Think about the Beatles for a minute. Try to go sell a Beatles diamond edition. There were people who bought that game for $25,000. Titanic But I do think this game is going to come out and it is absolutely going to frustrate more people than it excites and it is going to symbolize where pinball is headed. I think next year is going to be a period in which we really look at everything and we ask ourselves, is the value there? And there is no way that this James Bond game has the value. At what point, and I want to ask each and every one of you this, email me at kanedapinball at gmail.com. How much fun is pinball fun worth to you? How can we go from a hobby that gave us games like Twilightzone and Adamsfamily and even if you adjust those games for inflation, they should be like $6,000 to $7,000 today. How can you now say that a pinball machine can deliver to you $20,000 in fun on a single machine or $25,000 or $18,000 in fun? Godzilla LE was easy to get at $10,500. Now if you want to enjoy it, it's $16,000, $17,000, $18,000. Is it 80% more fun now? Because that's what people are asking for the game. I don't know which way the market's going to go people, but what I do know is this. This used to be a hobby in which people would get a game and then pass the game on and make a few bucks, but they would ask a fair market value for the game that is A lot of people to think about buying it the thing now is those days are gone now if anyone has anything desirable they price it on the second-hand market a price so high that they're just looking to hook the one rich uninformed collector who really doesn't care I don't even think they're collectors I think they're trying to just hook the one newbie who has no idea what these things used to be worth and it's not just The Pins are free can't always be the same. And I'm telling you, the bottom will fall out on this entire thing. It won't sustain itself at these prices. The thing is, nobody knows when that day is going to happen. And to take this full circle back to Panzer Freakin' Toy Story 4, I want to take it back there because think about pinball over the last few years. Like, think about pinball over the last five years. How did we always critique a game? We always critique the game by how great the art was, how well the design was, how good the code was. The one question we never asked, and I mean this, I've been doing this podcast for seven years. We never asked ourselves, does this game offer the value for the money? Which means something important. It means all of those years, we saw the value in the product. We never had to ask ourselves, is this game worth the money? Now what are we asking ourselves with every new launch? Is this game really worth it? Right? It's no longer about whether or not the game is fun. And that's why Toy Story 4 is so divisive because yes, the game is fun, but there is nowhere near the $12,000 to $15,000 in value, especially because they only got the fourth film. We have是什麼 intro and eight outro pants please subscribe to my Awационee我 blockchain ENG. and subscribe to the Awacunee 맛있 편48 gab紅連 cier A B The Pinball is headed and Mark my words when the Keith Elwin pin drops you are going to see more negativity than positivity surrounding that game people are gonna pop the hood on that game and see how little is Underneath it and even though it's fun and it's got a spinning hat and it's Keith Elwin flow and design 5684849 harvest第 respondedon I wish they would be more vocal about it, but they're not. But trust me, trust me, I think the best bang for the buck, I mean this, and I've been talking to people who have been playing James Bond Premium and have been playing the Pro. When you really remove the fact that Bond on a Wand is not that good, there's really not that much more in the Premium over the Pro. And I think that the people who buy James BondPro are gonna get the best bang for the buck. And I think more and more people are gonna be turned on to this. The only thing that can save James Bond and make it a good game is good code. And guess what? Everyone's going to get the same exact code. So it makes the pro seem like the most intelligent thing to get. I can't believe I'm saying it because pros are for a hose. Everybody, this is Kaneda in on a Sunday making a pinball podcast for you. Hit me up at kanedapinball at gmail dot com. Let me know what you think. How do you think this limited edition 60th anniversary Keith Elwin pin is going to land in the pinball marketplace? We'll talk to you soon. Later.