Episode 1230: "The Biggest Joke in Pinball is __________"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·26m 21s·analyzed·Jun 10, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda critiques Stern's LE pricing and incomplete code strategy as unsustainable, predicting boutique dominance.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the current state of pinball manufacturing, focusing on theme licensing, game quality, and the broken economics of Stern Pinball's Limited Edition model. He argues that Stern's strategy of selling incomplete games at premium prices is unsustainable, predicts a shift toward boutique manufacturers, and claims the Pokémon (Premium/LE) secondary market collapse exemplifies broader market dysfunction. He also covers rumors about upcoming game licenses (Speed Racer, He-Man, Big Trouble in Little China) and expresses concerns about Stern's long-term viability.

Key Claims

Stern LE is priced twice as much as Stern Pro but delivers no additional gameplay value to home buyers
high confidence · Kaneda (host) - repeated assertion that this is 'the biggest joke in all of pinball' and core argument of episode
Pokémon (Premium/LE) has collapsed in secondary market value from $18,000+ early sales to below $13,000, trending toward $10,000
high confidence · Kaneda citing his own experience and market observations of Pokémon (Premium/LE) depreciation over 3 months
Stern games lose $3,000-$5,000 in value after initial purchase, which is a recent phenomenon
medium confidence · Kaneda asserting this has changed the dynamic of buying new Stern machines
Barrels of Fun may have secured the Speed Racer license for a pinball machine
medium confidence · Dr. Frightener (source mentioned but not present) attended licensing show and spoke to Speed Racer license holders; Kaneda reports uncertainty ('may have secured')
Sonic the Hedgehog (Jersey Jack) will be feature-complete or near feature-complete on day one with good code
medium confidence · Kaneda citing Cary Hardy report and contrasting with Stern's incomplete-on-launch model
No pinball company currently holds the global license for Resident Evil; it may only be licensed in Europe
medium confidence · Dr. Frightener spoke to Capcom licensing representatives; Kaneda expresses uncertainty about regional vs global rights
Stern Pinball needs to move hundreds of units per week to dealers and distributors to remain viable
medium confidence · Kaneda's interpretation of Stern's business model and scale pressures
Stern Pinball goes out of business, their used games will become highly collectible and increase in value
low confidence · Kaneda speculation about future market dynamics

Notable Quotes

“The biggest joke in all of Pinball is that a Stern LE is twice the price of a Stern Pro. That is the biggest joke in all of Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Core thesis of the episode; sets up critique of Stern's pricing strategy
“When you buy a Stern LE, it doesn't stand for limited edition anymore. It stands for loser edition because you are losing so much money on something that is not giving you any more fun than the Pro Buyer.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Blunt characterization of secondary market depreciation and value proposition problem
“I will never do this again. Burn me once. Fool me once, right? Fool me once, I'll learn my lesson. I will never do this again.”
Kaneda @ ~late episode — Personal admission of Pokemon LE purchase regret; signals shift in buyer behavior for host
“Spooky Pinball on day one gives you way more Beetlejuice. You know, Sonic the Hedgehog on day one is going to almost be a code complete game. And so I'll just never do this again.”
Kaneda @ ~late episode — Contrasts boutique day-one completeness with Stern's incomplete model
“If everybody waits, Stern goes out of business. People really do underestimate what a problem Stern has right now. They are so big, they need to sell so many games.”
Kaneda @ ~late episode — Structural critique of Stern's scale and dependency on FOMO-driven early sales
“Jersey Jack will become the new biggest pinball company in the world. And then we'll have these boutiques... When Stern does go out of business, their games are going to go up in value again.”
Kaneda @ ~end of episode — Prediction of market consolidation and collectibility inversion
“Artwork cannot hide if the game doesn't shoot well. Guns N' Roses, beautiful art package, shoots like garbage.”
Kaneda @ ~early-mid episode — Argument that gameplay mechanics trump aesthetic polish

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Barrels of Funcompany Kanedaperson Cary Hardyperson

Signals

$
market_signal: Pokemon LE experiencing catastrophic price collapse from $18,000+ launch premium to below $13,000 in 3 months; trend toward $10,000 predicted
high · Kaneda's detailed account of Pokemon LE depreciation trajectory and his personal experience
~
sentiment_shift: Widespread consumer dissatisfaction with Stern's business model of selling incomplete games; shift toward boutique manufacturers and delayed purchases
high · Kaneda's personal purchase regret, Kelly Daniels' comment about decade-long dissatisfaction, and argument that 'everyone is tired of these Stern compromises'
?
business_signal: Stern needs to move hundreds of units per week to dealers/distributors; business model dependent on FOMO and early sales; vulnerable to recession
medium · Kaneda's analysis: 'If everybody waits, Stern goes out of business... They are so big, they need to sell so many games'
?
product_concern: Stern games launching with shallow code and incomplete rule sets; Pokemon cited as 'one of the most empty Stern machines of all time'; code updates promised but not delivered at launch
high · Kaneda's critique of Pokemon code depth and comparison with Sonic/Beetlejuice which are feature-complete day-one
?
licensing_signal: Pinball company (unnamed, possibly Multimorphic) may have secured only European rights to Resident Evil; Capcom reportedly stated no company has global license
medium · Dr. Frightener's conversation with Capcom; Kaneda's note that regional vs global licensing is complex and expensive

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.079

0:00

He's independent, no major, and plus you're naughty by nature. You know I like to burn rolls of money and I like to roll and burn papers. And I know you are for work later, so I'm texting you to come through. Top floor, no neighbors, only thing missing is you. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up.

0:20

Do you guys feel it in the pinball world right now? Feels like everything is just beginning to settle down a little bit. We're getting some reports of themes that manufacturers are going after. We're going to talk about that. Kerry Hardy is finally admitting to playing Sonic the Hedgehog. He ordered a CE. That's good news. Says the game's got some stuff in it we've never seen before. He did add that the topper does something we've never seen before. I'm a little bit over toppers. I gotta be honest. I feel like there's too much emphasis on toppers over the last like five to ten years. And what we really want is the magic under the glass. But that's a good sign. We knew Steve Ritchie wasn't going to fumble this. He said that the code in the game isn't going to be that confusing. It's going to be easy to understand how to get the emeralds, collect the coins. If Jersey Jack made Sonic too complex, they might as well just hang it up. We've got Stern Pinball fans out there holding on, holding on. The gameplay used to be everything. You know, they just shot better than every other game out there. It's not the case anymore. They let a lot of these boutique companies improve on the bomb, on the design, on the quality of feel in the game. When I was listening to Kerry, he said something very interesting. When you go from a Harry Potter and then you go to a Beetlejuice and then you jump on a Stern, the Stern just feels really, really cheap. It doesn't cost any less money. It just feels really, really cheap. And that's always been sort of like the tug of war in this hobby. Where's the value? Where's the fun? Where's the quality? Where's the effort? Where's the detail? And I think everything's beginning to settle down right now for a few reasons. I think a lot of us are pretty content. If you're honest with yourself and you look down your lineup of pinball machines, I guarantee you have a great game. I guarantee many of you have a plethora of great games. And that's a great thing. We are living in and have been experiencing over the last 10 years the true golden age of pinball. Sure, the mechs aren't there like they were in the 90s. The mechanical engineers just are not there anymore. I think people forget, too, it takes an army. You think John Papaduke designed anything that's in his machines that we still celebrate the mechson? You know, the mechson totem and theater of magic? He didn't make those things. He had an idea. He went to bed and an army of Bally Williams engineers brought his concept to life. When he had to make mechs with his own ability, he couldn't make anything. He made a 3D printed spinning disc that didn't work near the outlanes, and he had a buck that shot the ball through the glass with the middle part of Magic Girl. A total joke game. He hid behind Zombie Eddie's artwork. And we're in a new era now of pinball where I think everyone's sort of like trying to find that middle ground. Can't we still get more magic in the game mechanically and get code that is satisfying and deep but not complex? Artwork to me has become – everything looks pretty good nowadays, right? I mean we've been spoiled with so much good pinball artwork but artwork cannot hide if the game doesn't shoot well. Guns N' Roses, beautiful art package, shoots like garbage. Everyone would agree on that. I mean that. Like the game does not shoot well. Pokemon, it's got good flow. It's got great artwork, Pokemon. They did a great job on the art package on the game. There's no code in the game. There's a rumor that we might get new Pokemon code this week. I fully expect to see it by Friday. That would be great, and I hope there is a lot in it because it needs a lot more. But we're now in a period of pinball where the themes are getting really exciting. We had a little bit of a run the last three, four years where the themes were not the best. Now we've got some really exciting themes. I would argue that Stern doesn't really have the rights to the themes we really, really want. We're hearing a rumor now that Stern Pinball is in a battle. Thank you Kale over at Electric Bat Arcade Stern Pinball is trying to or has taken back the G Joe license from Barrels of Fun That Barrels of Fun and Brian Savage over there that they license this game with a UK licensing division of G Joe and the US division is like uh and Stern went after it that way This wouldn't be the first time we've seen a pinball company take a license from somebody. We saw, I think it was American Pinball, lost the Sonic the Hedgehog license to Jersey Jack. We know that Stern Pinball scooped the Godzilla license away from Spooky. That actually ended up being a good move for all involved there. And here we have it now. But when you hear stuff like Barrels is going to make G.I. Joe in 2028, when I heard that, I was like, what, 2028? These guys need a hit in 2026 or they might not make it to 2027. And when you think about all these pinball companies and how they're executing and you zoom out a little bit, you know, you start to realize it is a very, very interesting sort of field of players. There are so many pinball companies. There's only so much room to be creative in a pinball cabinet. And each of them come from different backgrounds, different countries, different cultures, different decades, different amounts of money. And all of these companies are trying to make something that you and I will look at, will play and say, I now will buy this thing. And that is really, really interesting when you think about how each of them are going about it. Now, first and foremost, if I were to say, as a marketer, what would be the number one thing I'd want to get right right away? And that is theme. Pinball machines will sell predominantly based on a theme. Now, the good news for boutiques and the bad news for Stern is this. If you get the theme right in the boutique space and you only need to sell 1,000 games, that shouldn't be that hard. When a boutique company comes out with a game that's a great theme and it can't sell 1,000 units, then they've done something colossally wrong. So for example, Predator should have easily sold 1,000 units without Arnold. Nobody really wants it. And the other whammy against Predator, it was a lot of money. People forget this. The tariffs, everything. Predator, like the trophy edition, was almost like $14,000. And there wasn't anybody out there that was going to spend $14,000 when you have the Alien edition with Ripley in it was almost half the price of that. So first and foremost, you got to get the theme right. And by getting the theme right, it's not just signing a lunchbox deal. You got to get the assets. You got to get the things people want in the game. It doesn't mean you're going to get everything. Beetlejuice is a great example of this. They got almost everything. The only missing thing from Beetlejuice is getting Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice himself, to do the call-outs. But other than that, they got everything. They got the clips from the movie. They made it on the first movie only. They got all the likenesses from the characters in the movie. They got everything. When you're watching those moments from the film on your pinball machine, it is a one-to-one high-fidelity translation of that movie that people love. It feels like you're playing the Beetlejuice movie. Christopher Franchi crushed it on the art package and the mechs are super fun. They integrated it so nicely. Now, after the assets, it comes down to how well are you recreating that world, that universe, that theme under the glass? And this has always been another like 14 years I've been covering this hobby. This is where things start to fall apart. We really have been very, very sort of, I don't know, accepting if you will, of pretty piss poor translations of themes. We have really, really accepted games that are just missing, like the main element of the theme. Jaws not eating the ball, even Godzilla does nothing. We've got games like, I don't know, like, I don't know, Godfather, I'm not even going to go down that. But we have games like, let's see a game that were like recently, Star Wars is another great example. Like look at Star Wars. Look at everything in that Star Wars universe. And you couldn put more under the glass than these tiny little at that falls down that looks terrible And obviously I know I said I wasn going to talk about it but no easier brief no easier execution than just make something transform And so we're very accepting. We're very, very accepting. We have been, as I keep saying, a little bit gaslit in the mechanical department. We have been. I mean, you take a Jersey Jack Wizard of Oz and you put it next to a Godfather and you tell me what happened. Like, how did we go from this for $6,500 to this for $15,000? And you lift the hood on the games and nobody wants to do that anymore. You notice that? Nobody wants to lift the hood. And it's a good phrase. It's actually a good cargument metaphor because when you lift the hood on a car and you see a V12 engine, Then, yeah, you can kind of justify the price tag. But if you lift the hood on a gorgeous Ferrari, imagine a Ferrari, gorgeous, the V12 Ferrari, you lift the hood on the car and instead of that V12, there's an inline four there, which you still spend that much money on it. And that's the thing. It doesn't work anymore. You know, you don't feel like as much went into this and you know not as much went into it. And we've also been gaslit, you know, the years of Shots are the new toys and Flow is the new mechanic.

11:24

And, you know, once these companies started listing spinners as features, you know, then we started to sort of slowly gaslight the entire pinball community. And our expectations of what should be in a game kept going down and down and down as prices went up and up and up. So, but I think, and I mean this, I think those days are over. At these prices and at the depreciation these games are experiencing, there is no room anymore for this mediocrity. The problem is, is everybody can see now what's happened to this hobby we love. We can see which companies have innovated. We can see which companies are putting more in and we can also see which companies are cost cutting, which companies are oversaturating the market with mediocrity. And when you have a choice, I've always said this, when everything's the same price, why would you ever buy something that is mediocre in comparison? It's like video games. If every video game is 70 bucks, why would you ever buy a bad game? You're simply going to buy the games that are great. And the same is now true with pinball. Pretty much when you think about the games that everyone's really considering, you know, I feel like operators consider the pros. And for you homebuyers out there that are comfortable with buying a pro, you're probably the happiest people in the hobby because you're not about vanity. You're not about the flash. You're not about, you know, the I got one and you didn't. You're not about stuff that doesn't really impact gameplay. You are the purest pinball lover. I mean it. A homebuyer that goes all in on pros only and just enjoys the layout, doesn't care about the game slowing down because the mechs slow down the gameplay. And here's the thing. Almost every single game, the reason why you love it, the reason why you own it for the most part is the software. It is the code. And these pro buyers, are you telling me that a John Wick pro buyer is having less fun than a John Wick LE buyer? No. And if you think about it, the only reason John Wick is now enjoyable is because of the code. The mechanisms in the premium and the LE are not great. They don't add much to the gameplay. It's just, you know, you got to get over a little bit aesthetically that the pro doesn't look as good. But the same thing's true with Transformers. Are you really going to miss Soundwave? No, not really. It doesn't really matter. Everything people are gushing about in Transformers is code related. So for you pro buyers, and I know we say like pros are for hoes and we make fun of you. The reason we make fun of you is simply this, is that we're insecure, that we want something that makes us feel more special. Like we were able to get this, but the biggest joke in all of pinball that is happening right now, and not enough people talk about this. The biggest joke in all of Pinball is that a Stern LE is twice the price of a Stern Pro. That is the biggest joke in all of Pinball. And I've said this for a while. When you buy a Stern LE, it doesn't stand for limited edition anymore. It stands for loser edition because you are losing so much money on something that is not giving you any more fun than the Pro Buyer It a really weird thing It never used to be that way but it is now We are witnessing now what is really a comical collapse in the value of Pokemon LE These things were selling for a lot of money but just for those first two weeks And remember in those first two weeks no games were out there We did not know how empty the code was All we knew is it was Pokemon And in those first two weeks, it was really like the first week it was revealed. They all sold out instantly, you know, but that was really just selling through. There were still a lot of pinheads who went in on a Pokemon LE because they were speculating on the market. And it was smart to do that only if you sold, though, in those first two weeks. Now they're all left holding the bag. But this game was easily getting $5,000 on top of the $13,000 if you sold right away. But a couple things happened. First and foremost, none of the Pokemon collectors migrated over. None of them. This did not become the next thing that Pokemon collectors needed to own. There was zero of that happening. And so what happened was this. A lot of pinheads who don't even like Pokemon, who are in on an LE, They went through and they bought their game and they thought if they waited, it was going to keep going up. And so as they saw people getting 17, 18, they thought if they held, this thing might hit 25, 30. And what happened was this. Remember, all this was before the games went out into the world. Once the games made their way out and everyone realized how shallow it was, how empty it was, And for the pinheads out there, if you're good at pinball, you're going to jump on Pokemon and think this is maybe one of the most empty Stern machines of all time. It barely has any shots. And if you're good at pinball, you're going to be bored. You are absolutely going to be bored with this game pretty immediately. If you're great at pinball and you don't like the theme, you will be on to the next immediately. And then you've got all these guys with these LEs realizing as the prices started to go down that they weren't going to get 18. Heck, now they're not even getting 17. Heck, now I can't even get 15. Now I can't get 14. And now we're at the point where Pokemon LE is sinking below $13,000 and it's going to do what every other Stern LE does. Remember, it's only been out for like three months. It's going to do what every other Stern LE does. It's going to slide down to $10,000. By the time the topper is out, nobody's going to care. And by the time the code gets great, nobody's going to care. You really only get one chance to make a first impression. And this Stern model of making everybody wait a year or two before the thing you bought gets great is a really bad model for us. It's a great model for them. It's a great model for dealers and distros. You know, this is what Stern's whole model is built on, this quicksand of hype and FOMO. And I'll say this, you know, someone, I think it was Kelly Daniels, someone said, hey, Chris, Kaneda, you are finally realizing because you bought Pokemon Elite new in box, you are realizing what each and every one of us has been through over the last decade. And I think he's right because I had never bought – I just thought about this. I'd never bought on day one a new in-box Stern LE. And as I said to Kelly, and I'll say to each and every one of you, I will never do it again. Burn me once. Fool me once, right? Fool me once. I'll learn my lesson. I will never do this again. This has not been enjoyable. This is not fun. And I now know in like six months when the code is good, I could have got Killian a Pokemon Elite for $10,000. There was absolutely no point in buying it early. It has not brought me or my family so much enjoyment because after like a few weeks, you don't want to play it anymore because there's nothing in it. So I will never do this again. Spooky Pinball on day one gives you way more Beetlejuice. You know, we know Sonic the Hedgehog on day one is going to almost be a code complete game. And so I'll just never do this again. And it's really funny to me to see like why any of us would do it. Why would anybody other than being an operator, why would you ever go in right away on a Stern machine? And here's the problem. Stern needs you to. If everybody waits, Stern goes out of business. People really do underestimate what a problem Stern is. has right now. They are so big, they need to sell so many games and shove them down the throat of dealers and distros every single week. Not every day, every week. Well, maybe every day. They need to move hundreds of units a week to an audience that is increasingly feeling unfulfilled. That is feeling like abused by the company because they're buying incomplete product. They've watched the product they have bought depreciate in value. How can you ignore that? How can anybody ignore that? The only one that's in a good mood right now is Kale because he operates these games and makes money. If you're an operator, yeah, you want a new machine every like three months to bring more people into your bar and to make money. So this is where we're at. And I feel liberated. I feel good. I feel good knowing that I've experienced what this restaurant will serve me and I'm not going to go back there anymore. I might do takeout from them, you know, down the road when a game is used that I really want, but I would never buy a new in-box Stern ever again because this is not going to change. This is never going to change. They built their company so big and have to move so quick with the resources they have. They are never going to stop doing it this way And this never used to be the case because again the main thing that changed is now these games are losing three to five thousand dollars in L And it never used to be the case And so I look forward to seeing what everybody else has Here are some of the rumors We got American Pinball is working on a big banger theme We got Circus Voltaire next from them I know for a fact that Barrels of Fun has been trying to secure and may have secured the license for Speed Racer. So one of my friends, Dr. Frightener went to the licensing show. He spoke to the people that have the Speed Racer license and they said, Barrels of Fun, try to license this theme. Do they have it? I don't know. We know that next from Barrels of Fun is most likely going to be either He-Man or Big Trouble in Little China. I don't think it's Dungeon Crawler Carl. I mean this when I say this. If they make Dungeon Crawler Carl, they will go out of business. This is not going to be like another Winchester. No, no, because people keep forgetting what is about to hit. Sonic the Hedgehog is going to absorb so much money from this hobby and it's going to be amazing. Then we're going to get, after that, we're going to get maybe a new ACDC. We're going to get Back to the Future. We're going to get Goonies. We're going to get Fifth Element. It just keeps coming. It just keeps coming. I'm not sure what's going on with this Resident Evil game. So Larry, Dr. Frightener went up to the Capcom folks who own the Resident Evil license, and apparently they said that no pinball company has the license. So I don know Did these guys get the right license Did they license it in Europe only Who knows man We seen this before where companies will go down a road of thinking they have everything they need to make the game and then they don And I know licensing is tricky and it's regional and it's a lot more expensive to get the global license versus a local license on a theme. And they need to sell games in America. Like you ain't going to make it if you can't sell pinball to the biggest demographic that buys pinball, which is in America. But it's about to become, I feel, a boutique pinball world. I think collectively, everyone is just tired of these stern compromises, of how they made the platform cheaper. I think Seth, when he became CEO, I don't think he's a bad guy, but I think he had no way out. People forget this. It's more Gary's greed signing that deal with the big factory, taking all that private equity money. Seth was then brought in to execute Gary's idea and it's not going to work out. Do you really think with the climate of where we're at that this is all going to work out? And the moment any sort of recession hits people in America, you're going to see like the big guy collapse. It's just going to happen. No one's going to buy them. No one's going to swoop in and buy them. Jersey Jack will become the new biggest pinball company in the world. And then we'll have these boutiques. And then here the crazy thing that going to happen When Stern does go out of business because again I think they just got too big and their product is not worth the money then their games are going to go up in value again It weird It like once they go out of business then they will become the most collectible they ever been Everybody, I hope that doesn't happen, but again, I'm worried and I don't think they've got the right plan and I don't think the way they sell these unfinished game to consumers is going to last much longer. Have a great Wednesday. Go Knicks. I don't know, man. I'm kind of like rooting a little bit against the annoying celebrity row at Madison Square Garden. I think it's disgusting that if you're a sports fan and you're a kid, you are watching people buy four tickets to a Knicks game costs more than the house you live in for one basketball game. I think it's a disgusting display of wealth. And I think sport is supposed to bring people together and democratize people's entertainment. And I think it's disgusting. And I don't like it. I don't like it at all. And it's just so pathetic. All these bandwagon celebrities sitting sideline at the game. Robert Kraft is there. How are you going to let the guy, the freaking owner of the Patriots sit courtside at a Knicks game? It's so stupid. But anyway, Kaneda out. Rant over.