Episode 991: "Ugh...Avatar"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 46s·held·Aug 28, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Host savages James Cameron's Avatar announcement as thematically weak and predicts dead-on-arrival sales.

Summary

A passionate critique of Jersey Jack Guarnieri announcement of Avatar as their next game, with the host arguing the theme lacks cultural resonance, memorable characters, and collector appeal compared to other major IP. The host expresses frustration with JJP's recent lineup decisions (Toy Story 4, Godfather, Elton John, Avatar) and speculates this creates market opportunity for competitors like Spooky Pinball and Stern.

Key Claims

Avatar is a terrible theme for pinball because most people cannot name four characters from the franchise
high confidence · Host makes repeated challenge throughout episode: 'For those of you who think this is a good theme for pinball, name me four characters from Avatar.'
Jersey Jack Guarnieri does not conduct market research and makes decisions driven only by Jack Winardi and Leonard Abbas's personal preferences
medium confidence · Host states: 'telegraphed to me, they don't do any market research. They don't know what anybody really wants in the pinball buying demographic' and later 'Jersey Jack Guarnieri is making games for Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas and nobody else.'
Avatar pinball will be 'dead on arrival' and fail to sell at $12,000-$15,000 price points
medium confidence · Host prediction: 'with this game being Avatar, I believe it's going to be dead on arrival. I don't think people want it. I don't think people are going to warm up to this theme.'
The announcement of Avatar benefits competitors like Spooky Pinball and Barrels of Fun by creating market space away from major franchise saturation
medium confidence · Host: 'You know where they're popping champagne? Is over at Spooky Pinball and barrels of fun. Because those two companies now, it's your chance.'
Avatar merchandise and collectibles are significantly less prevalent than comparable franchises like Star Wars or X-Men
medium confidence · Host: 'nobody owns avatar memorabilia. Nobody buys avatar t-shirts. Nobody collects avatar action figures' and uses t-shirt visibility as cultural resonance metric.

Notable Quotes

“For those of you who think this is a good theme for pinball, name me four characters from Avatar. Just four.”
Host (Kaneda's Pinball Podcast) @ early in episode — Core rhetorical device establishing the main criticism: Avatar lacks memorable, distinct characters
“Avatar is a terrible theme for pinball and Jersey Jack continues to make what I think are just decisions between Leonard Abbas and Jack Winari, which again, telegraphed to me, they don't do any market research.”
[name withheld pending review] @ ~2 min — Directly attributes decision-making failure to lack of market research and personal preferences of two executives
“with this game being Avatar, I believe it's going to be dead on arrival. I don't think people want it.”
[name withheld pending review] @ mid-episode — Explicit prediction of commercial failure, framed as confidence-high assertion
“The greatest marketing that Stern Pinball has ever done is simply allow Jersey Jack Guarnieri to make the most idiotic decisions.”
[name withheld pending review] @ mid-episode — Meta-commentary on competitive advantage: JJP's missteps indirectly help Stern
“I've never met anyone who's like a diehard Avatar fan. You know what I'm saying? It's just like one of those things that we all see because it's a spectacle.”
[name withheld pending review] @ late episode — Characterizes Avatar fandom as shallow and transactional (spectacle-based) rather than passionate
“How many times have you seen a Guns N' Roses t-shirt all over the place? How many times have you seen an Avatar t-shirt?”
[name withheld pending review] @ mid-episode — Uses merchandise visibility as proxy for cultural resonance and fan passion
“They were the coolest company ever. Slash from Guns N' Roses was over there and they had a hit and they've done nothing since and so now we're like four years later and we get Avatar”
[name withheld pending review] — Positions Avatar as evidence of JJP's creative decline since Guns N' Roses success

Entities

Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Jack WinardipersonLeonard AbbaspersonAvatargameStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBarrels of Funcompany

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Host expresses significant deflation and disappointment upon learning Avatar is JJP's next game; expected Matrix or other IP instead
high · Repeated use of word 'deflated,' multiple statements like 'This news is so deflating' and 'I'm deflated'
?
community_signal: Community anticipated Matrix as JJP's next title; Avatar announcement widely perceived as major letdown by informed observers
high · 'Everybody wanted it to be the Matrix. We knew it was not going to be Harry Potter and maybe it was going to be Margaritaville'
$
market_signal: Host argues Avatar IP lacks strong fan base, merchandise presence, and character memorability compared to major franchises like Star Wars, X-Men, Cobra Kai
medium · Sustained argument that Avatar t-shirts are rare, no diehard fanbase exists, and characters are not memorable despite $4B box office
?
business_signal: Avatar announcement creates market opportunity for competitors (Spooky Pinball, Barrels of Fun, Stern) by reducing JJP's market appeal for 12 months
medium · 'You know where they're popping champagne? Is over at Spooky Pinball and barrels of fun. Because those two companies now, it's your chance.'
?
product_concern: Host predicts Avatar will be 'dead on arrival' and fail to achieve sales targets at $12,000-$15,000 price points
medium · 'with this game being Avatar, I believe it's going to be dead on arrival. I don't think people want it. I don't think people are going to warm up to this theme. It's not going to do what they think it's going to do.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.065

0:00

I'm going to I'm gonna break it down real simple. For those of you who think this is a good theme for pinball, name me four characters from Avatar. Just four. Name me four characters that you remember. You remember their names? You remember lines they delivered in like what, like six and a half, seven hours of cinema? Name me four characters that you talk about with your friends. Name me four characters that you've seen on t-shirts. Name me four characters that your kids talk about wanting to be. You can't. And I'm just gonna make a guess that you don't even know two characters from the avatar world. And that is why I don't care if it's made four billion at the box office, Avatar is a terrible theme for pinball and Jersey Jack continues to make what I think are just decisions between Leonard Abbas and Jack Winari, which again, telegraphed to me, they don't do any market research. They don't know what anybody really wants in the pinball buying demographic. You go, I mean, this is a terrible lineup. You go from freaking Toy Story 4, which is maybe the worst damn theme selection in the history of the History of Pinball and you gotta go watch Quentin Tarantino talk about how he will never even watch Toy Story 4 because Toy Story 3 was the perfect way to end the story. You go from that to freaking the Godfather to Elton John to Avatar. Okay, I can name you four characters from Star Wars right away. Princess Leia, Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader, Darth Maul, Yoda, I can't even name you four characters from Avatar. Can I name you four characters from X-Men? Instantly. Wolverine, Storm, Cyclops, Xavier,Magneto,Beast. You can keep on going. And for those of you out there who don't understand why nobody out there is going to spend $12,000 to $15,000 to recreate the battle of the Hallelujah Mountains. I mean this. I'm looking at the Jason Knapp who just broke this exclusively that Jersey Jack's next game is Avatar and I'm looking at these inserts and I'm just thinking to myself, Who the heck out there other than James Cameron even remembers any of this? The Battle of the Hallelujah Mountains, Oma Tikaiyayasongkord, Owelnegadikami, whatever the hell that means, and then we got MetkayinaSongkord, I mean this is just a name. We already have had an avatar pinball machine from Stern Pinball gain some income łφ'ğ Magicción acaly минутáññ ін 챙åáñññy Iváčăčč acumáčččáñi, prominent endpoint at the stage of a category, Ifar Holland v returns to the team, Whereas Tomas, دهنجنیο paróňо franciüne мigiousdo, January of this year sued to брайт feud, expectación sternate ע audition of gestalt iošI frosting inst Viewpoint о đi�� medalCarl sweetie van Tent 약간ć інņĕ The Muppets over Avatar again you can't name for people from the avatar movies Kenya name for Muppet characters that you love miss piggy Kermit animal and Fozzie freaking bear I would rather have a Fozzie bear collector's edition of the Muppets then have another avatar pinball machine in the I'm going to be the best person in the pinball world. This news is so deflating. Everybody wanted it to be the Matrix. We knew it was not going to be Harry Potter and maybe it was going to be Margaritaville, but to be Avatar and to me, the fact that it is avatar just telegraphs to me that Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas are the only two people over at Jersey Jack Pinball that have been in the pinball world. I think the reason why these moves are Deflating for the rest of us is we really want Jersey Jack with its beautiful platform To bring us a theme that we actually really want and I know that most people do not want Avatar and this is not a property that has this like promisingFree afterward, Lund��터, The next question is, my boss says this, my chief creative officer over in Sweden, he always says Chris, the real sign that you have something that is popping in culture that people love is they wear it on a t-shirt. How many times have you seen a Guns N' Roses t-shirt all over the place? Denver lambsdale, In a nutshell, Jersey Jack Pinball is making games for Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas and nobody else. Now look, Avatar is not a complete surprise. We knew this was in the running. I'd been talking about JJP Avatar for a really long time. I know that Leonard was friends with Jim Nolan, kwneypcils Blano, Costner, 건강jew, bro, Alan, Grant, exznder, convers нач månken, The next machine is Avatar. You know, out of all the things they could have done, they landed on something and this theme is a lot like the Hobbit. Like on paper, it seems like it's a no-brainer, right? A multi-billion dollar film franchise. Can I remind you guys, do you want to know another film franchise that grossed $2 billion at the box office? Text is called John Wick. How did that pinballmachine do? And I'm telling you right now, with this game being Avatar, I believe it's going to be dead on arrival. I don't think people want it. I don't think people are going to warm up to this theme. It's not going to do what they think it's going to do. And look, I'm just gonna guess it's gonna have a big tree in the middle of the game and they're gonna use lighting and they're gonna use black lighting and all this bioluminescent feeling to the game. I get it, but it's just not what people want to own right now. And like, let's just look at the franchise for example, like there's three more movies coming out. So is this gonna be based on the first two movies or just the first movie? And again, it's a 12-year-old movie. The second movie didn't really catch on. And nobody's really wanting three more Avatar movies. And the thing about Avatar is this. They're not good movies. They're just spectacles. It's like you're not even going to the movie when you see Avatar in IMAX in 3D. You're paying like $25 and you're getting on a three hour ride. That's what makes Avatar so appealing. When the first one came out, it was like nothing we had ever seen before in cinema. It was a groundbreaking experience. And remember what happened after Avatar? All these movies started being in 3D, right? We all bought 3D movies and we thought we were going to wear glasses on our couches The And look where we are now. Nobody. Nobody's using 3D TVs. No movies are coming out in 3D anymore. And when the new Avatar movie came out, it was just more of the same. It wasn't groundbreaking. And the story was just whatever, right? The characters, what's going on? You don't care about TER beni T cardina oh bughaan A TER outdated In the fifth element I mean it is really one of the most intriguing franchises because on the surface it seems like it a no But when you dive down into it, nobody owns avatar memorabilia. Nobody buys avatar t-shirts. Nobody collects avatar action figures. And nobody sure as hell wants to spend $12,000 to $15,000 on an avatar pinball machine. And this is why marketing matters. And this is why you have to do market research. And this is why you have to understand. If you want to spend all the energy and all the money and all the effort to making a pinball machine, and you're Jersey Jack with a multi-billionaire backer, How are we landing here? Like how are we seriously landing on Toy Story 4, The Godfather, Elton John and Avatar? Those are four of the weirdest things to land on and the worst lineup I can think about when you think about four games in a row. Has any company released four games in a row that are that freaking questionable other than a company that I've I will not mention any more. I don't get it. And this was supposed to be the week where we were supposed to get excited about X-Men from Stern Pinball. And now all of a sudden, this move by Jersey Jack makes me more excited for X-Men, for Jack Danger's next game. I mean, the greatest marketing that Stern Pinball has ever done is simply allow Jersey Jack Pinball to make the most idiotic decisions. Because every time ✱ yield REBORN AND НачIN NEWSrz & his 죽 santé✱TRAP tendon questionsNico envisioned to you for watching✱DARE. ✱LEFLAP˙ Basically they ain't nobody~~ Wheyb😺 The guy is game... Let's see the daily statistics on tôl ....It is just a Ат 💨 And well, there's a equation behind this You'll be scammed once Jersey Jack doesn't be in lifespan There are no news clinic Cer хват But it hasn't changed 🤓 We're gonna have a playfield or a game when you look down at it. It perfectly nails the theme integration like Guns N' Roses and I don't think Jersey Jack gets it. They were the coolest company ever. When Slash from Guns N' Roses was over there and they had a hit and they've done nothing since and so now we're like four years later and we get Avatar and what makes me so sad is this is a company that only releases The only thing we're going to get from Jersey Jack for the next 365 days is going to be Avatar. Distributors and dealers trying to shove it down our throats, emails spamming us that it's a hit, and good luck trying to sell Avatar for $15,000 a pop. Good luck trying to sell this game for $12,500. It does not have the emotional connection that people have to Jaws or X-Men or Star Wars or Stranger Things or Guns and Roses. Heck, even Elton John. Elton John fans are much more into Elton John. I've never met anyone who's like a diehard Avatar fan. You know what I'm saying? It's just like one of those things that we all see because it's a spectacle. We can spend $30 to see it at the movies and if we go to Disney, we'll jump on the ride. And the answer to that question is, yes, you can't. You can't buy a game in the game store, but you can buy a game in the game store, and that's the problem. People love Cobra Kai T-shirts all over the world. There are more Cobra Kai T-shirts all over the world than there will ever be of Avatar T-shirts. And that's my take on this whole thing, people. I'm deflated. I won't be buying this game. I think for a lot of us, we're kind of laughing because our money is now gone. But the truth is, when you buy a game, you're not buying it. You're buying it because you're thinking, oh, I'm going to play this game. 01 Post Rules 근gs list of SMT 07141810202 It's coming. And it's coming from Dutch Pinball with Bob Gale, the executive producer. It's gonna have all the assets from all three movies. It's gonna have mechanisms that are awesome. It's gonna have a display that's amazing. And I know it's coming. So I'm gonna save my money for something like Back to the Future. Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar is a great way to sell more Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. I serious Like if it was Matrix I be worried if I was Melvin But Avatar All of a sudden I would rather have Alice than Avatar I mean it I would absolutely rather have Alice than Avatar It gonna come down to this There gonna be a moment where I really think Brett needs to step up here and Brett Abbas is Leonard son Because I think Brett and Ken Cromwell I mean this it like I looking to them Like they the younger part of this equation I think Jack and Leonard have no idea what they doing And I think they need to call a meeting were Ring Volt C Executs Introdu Cl jumper vs Ret scholarship I don't know you. Premium that may have air