Episode 991: "Ugh...Avatar"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 46s·analyzed·Aug 28, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Kaneda harshly critiques JJP's Avatar announcement as culturally hollow and predicts commercial failure.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a scathing critique of Jersey Jack Pinball's announcement of Avatar as their next title, arguing the theme lacks cultural resonance, memorable characters, and collector appeal compared to major IPs. He criticizes JJP leadership (Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas) for poor market research, contrasts Avatar's weakness against Star Wars and X-Men IP strength, and predicts the game will be "dead on arrival." The episode positions this as a strategic opening for competitors like Spooky Pinball and barrels of fun to capture market share.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball announced Avatar as their next game
high confidence · Kaneda citing Jason Knapp's exclusive break of the news; multiple references throughout episode
Avatar lacks memorable characters and cultural staying power compared to franchises like Star Wars, X-Men, and Muppets
high confidence · Kaneda's repeated challenge: 'name me four characters from Avatar' vs. instant recall of Star Wars (Leia, Han, Luke, Vader) and X-Men (Wolverine, Storm, Cyclops, Xavier)
Avatar merchandise and t-shirt adoption is minimal compared to comparable properties
medium confidence · Kaneda cites advice from his boss (CCO in Sweden) about cultural resonance = t-shirt visibility; contrasts Avatar t-shirts with Guns N' Roses, Cobra Kai, and Muppets merchandise
JJP's last four games (Toy Story 4, Godfather, Elton John, Avatar) represent the worst lineup in pinball history
medium confidence · Kaneda's subjective assessment but based on his market research criticism and sales/adoption expectations
John Wick pinball machine (a $2B+ box office franchise) underperformed commercially
medium confidence · Kaneda uses as historical parallel to Avatar; implies high box office does not guarantee pinball success
Leonard Abbas was friends with Jim Nolan (context for Avatar selection decision)
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'I know that Leonard was friends with Jim Nolan. The next machine is Avatar.' (Jim Nolan likely Avatar IP contact or rights holder)
Avatar movies are spectacles, not narratively compelling; sequel did not catch on
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion: 'They're not good movies. They're just spectacles' and 'The second movie didn't really catch on'
Back to the Future pinball (by Dutch Pinball with Bob Gale) will have assets from all three movies and superior mechanisms/display
medium confidence · Kaneda mentions this as competitor title; 'It's coming from Dutch Pinball with Bob Gale, the executive producer. It's gonna have all the assets from all three movies.'

Notable Quotes

“Name me four characters from Avatar. Just four. Name me four characters that you remember... You can't.”
Kaneda @ Opening argument — Core thesis: Avatar lacks cultural penetration and memorable IP identity, central to Kaneda's critique
“I can name you four characters from Star Wars right away. Princess Leia, Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader, Darth Maul, Yoda, I can't even name you four characters from Avatar.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Comparative weakness of Avatar IP vs. established franchises; establishes market appeal gap
“Jersey Jack Pinball is making games for Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas and nobody else.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Accusation of poor decision-making leadership; questions market research and consumer understanding
“This game is gonna be dead on arrival. You heard it here first.”
Kaneda @ Closing statement — Explicit prediction of commercial failure; emphatic conclusion to episode thesis
“The greatest marketing that Stern Pinball has ever done is simply allow Jersey Jack Pinball to make the most idiotic decisions.”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Indirect praise for Stern; positions JJP failure as competitive advantage for other manufacturers
“I would rather have a Fozzie bear collector's edition of the Muppets then have another Avatar pinball machine in the world.”
Kaneda @ Early-mid episode — Extreme preference statement; illustrates depth of dissatisfaction with Avatar selection
“I think Jack and Leonard have no idea what they're doing... Brett Abbas is Leonard's son... I think Brett and Ken Cromwell... they the younger part of this equation.”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Generational criticism of JJP leadership; hints at succession/new decision-making potential
“The Hobbit was a multi-billion dollar movie franchise and the films sucked... Jersey Jack Pinball gonna learn a lesson.”

Entities

KanedapersonJack GuarnaripersonLeonard AbbaspersonBrett Abbasperson Jason Knappperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern Pinballcompany

Signals

?
announcement: Jersey Jack Pinball officially announced Avatar as their next pinball machine title, breaking exclusive via Jason Knapp
high · Kaneda references Jason Knapp exclusive break; discusses game details and artistic direction (Hallelujah Mountains, Na'vi characters, bioluminescence lighting)
~
sentiment_shift: Major community disappointment with Avatar announcement; Kaneda captures widespread deflation over theme choice and JJP's direction
high · Kaneda's repeated emphasis: 'This news is so deflating... I'm deflated... everybody wanted it to be the Matrix' and 'we're all laughing because our manpower is now gone'
?
product_concern: Avatar predicted to have poor sales adoption and secondary market depreciation due to weak cultural resonance and collector appeal
high · Kaneda: 'I believe it's going to be dead on arrival... This game is gonna be dead on arrival. You heard it here first... good luck trying to sell this game for $12,500'
$
market_signal: JJP's Avatar misstep creates strategic window for competitors (Spooky Pinball, barrels of fun) to release strong-theme titles and capture market share
high · Kaneda: 'this is your chance... you're gonna have another dud theme from Jersey Jack for an entire year... X-Men comic book is not gonna light the pinball world on fire'
?
business_signal: Kaneda questions Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas's market research capability and business judgment; suggests generational leadership change needed
medium · Kaneda: 'they don't do any market research. They don't know what anybody really wants... Jack and Leonard have no idea what they're doing... I think Brett and Ken Cromwell... they the younger part'

Topics

Avatar theme selection criticismprimaryJersey Jack Pinball leadership and market research capabilityprimaryIP cultural resonance and memorability metricsprimaryCommercial viability predictions for AvatarprimaryCompetitive landscape and market opportunity for other manufacturersprimaryPinball game lineup quality and manufacturing strategysecondaryBox office revenue as false predictor of pinball successsecondaryGenerational leadership transitions at JJPsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.85)— Kaneda is profoundly disappointed and frustrated by Avatar announcement. Episode is dominated by harsh criticism of JJP leadership decision-making, characterizing choices as 'idiotic' and 'deflating.' Only positive sentiment directed at competitors (Stern, Spooky, barrels of fun) seen as beneficiaries of JJP misstep. Strong emotional investment evident in repeated use of words like 'deflated,' 'terrible,' and 'dead on arrival.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.065

I'm going to I'm gonna break it down real simple. For those of you who think this is a good theme for pinball, name me four characters from Avatar. Just four. Name me four characters that you remember. You remember their names? You remember lines they delivered in like what, like six and a half, seven hours of cinema? Name me four characters that you talk about with your friends. Name me four characters that you've seen on t-shirts. Name me four characters that your kids talk about wanting to be. You can't. And I'm just gonna make a guess that you don't even know two characters from the avatar world. And that is why I don't care if it's made four billion at the box office, Avatar is a terrible theme for pinball and Jersey Jack continues to make what I think are just decisions between Leonard Abbas and Jack Winari, which again, telegraphed to me, they don't do any market research. They don't know what anybody really wants in the pinball buying demographic. You go, I mean, this is a terrible lineup. You go from freaking Toy Story 4, which is maybe the worst damn theme selection in the history of the History of Pinball and you gotta go watch Quentin Tarantino talk about how he will never even watch Toy Story 4 because Toy Story 3 was the perfect way to end the story. You go from that to freaking the Godfather to Elton John to Avatar. Okay, I can name you four characters from Star Wars right away. Princess Leia, Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader, Darth Maul, Yoda, I can't even name you four characters from Avatar. Can I name you four characters from X-Men? Instantly. Wolverine, Storm, Cyclops, Xavier,Magneto,Beast. You can keep on going. And for those of you out there who don't understand why nobody out there is going to spend $12,000 to $15,000 to recreate the battle of the Hallelujah Mountains. I mean this. I'm looking at the Jason Knapp who just broke this exclusively that Jersey Jack's next game is Avatar and I'm looking at these inserts and I'm just thinking to myself, Who the heck out there other than James Cameron even remembers any of this? The Battle of the Hallelujah Mountains, Oma Tikaiyayasongkord, Owelnegadikami, whatever the hell that means, and then we got MetkayinaSongkord, I mean this is just a name. We already have had an avatar pinball machine from Stern Pinball gain some income łφ'ğ Magicción acaly минутáññ ін 챙åáñññy Iváčăčč acumáčččáñi, prominent endpoint at the stage of a category, Ifar Holland v returns to the team, Whereas Tomas, دهنجنیο paróňо franciüne мigiousdo, January of this year sued to брайт feud, expectación sternate ע audition of gestalt iošI frosting inst Viewpoint о đi�� medalCarl sweetie van Tent 약간ć інņĕ The Muppets over Avatar again you can't name for people from the avatar movies Kenya name for Muppet characters that you love miss piggy Kermit animal and Fozzie freaking bear I would rather have a Fozzie bear collector's edition of the Muppets then have another avatar pinball machine in the I'm going to be the best person in the pinball world. This news is so deflating. Everybody wanted it to be the Matrix. We knew it was not going to be Harry Potter and maybe it was going to be Margaritaville, but to be Avatar and to me, the fact that it is avatar just telegraphs to me that Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas are the only two people over at Jersey Jack Pinball that have been in the pinball world. I think the reason why these moves are Deflating for the rest of us is we really want Jersey Jack with its beautiful platform To bring us a theme that we actually really want and I know that most people do not want Avatar and this is not a property that has this like promisingFree afterward, Lund��터, The next question is, my boss says this, my chief creative officer over in Sweden, he always says Chris, the real sign that you have something that is popping in culture that people love is they wear it on a t-shirt. How many times have you seen a Guns N' Roses t-shirt all over the place? Denver lambsdale, In a nutshell, Jersey Jack Pinball is making games for Jack Guarnari and Leonard Abbas and nobody else. Now look, Avatar is not a complete surprise. We knew this was in the running. I'd been talking about JJP Avatar for a really long time. I know that Leonard was friends with Jim Nolan, kwneypcils Blano, Costner, 건강jew, bro, Alan, Grant, exznder, convers нач månken, The next machine is Avatar. You know, out of all the things they could have done, they landed on something and this theme is a lot like the Hobbit. Like on paper, it seems like it's a no-brainer, right? A multi-billion dollar film franchise. Can I remind you guys, do you want to know another film franchise that grossed $2 billion at the box office? Text is called John Wick. How did that pinballmachine do? And I'm telling you right now, with this game being Avatar, I believe it's going to be dead on arrival. I don't think people want it. I don't think people are going to warm up to this theme. It's not going to do what they think it's going to do. And look, I'm just gonna guess it's gonna have a big tree in the middle of the game and they're gonna use lighting and they're gonna use black lighting and all this bioluminescent feeling to the game. I get it, but it's just not what people want to own right now. And like, let's just look at the franchise for example, like there's three more movies coming out. So is this gonna be based on the first two movies or just the first movie? And again, it's a 12-year-old movie. The second movie didn't really catch on. And nobody's really wanting three more Avatar movies. And the thing about Avatar is this. They're not good movies. They're just spectacles. It's like you're not even going to the movie when John Youssi Avatar in IMAX in 3D. You're paying like $25 and you're getting on a three hour ride. That's what makes Avatar so appealing. When the first one came out, it was like nothing we had ever seen before in cinema. It was a groundbreaking experience. And remember what happened after Avatar? All these movies started being in 3D, right? We all bought 3D movies and we thought we were going to wear glasses on our couches The And look where we are now. Nobody. Nobody's using 3D TVs. No movies are coming out in 3D anymore. And when the new Avatar movie came out, it was just more of the same. It wasn't groundbreaking. And the story was just whatever, right? The characters, what's going on? You don't care about TER beni T cardina oh bughaan A TER outdated In the fifth element I mean it is really one of the most intriguing franchises because on the surface it seems like it a no But when you dive down into it, nobody owns avatar memorabilia. Nobody buys avatar t-shirts. Nobody collects avatar action figures. And nobody sure as hell wants to spend $12,000 to $15,000 on an avatar pinball machine. And this is why marketing matters. And this is why you have to do market research. And this is why you have to understand. If you want to spend all the energy and all the money and all the effort to making a pinball machine, and you're Jersey Jack with a multi-billionaire backer, How are we landing here? Like how are we seriously landing on Toy Story 4, The Godfather, Elton John and Avatar? Those are four of the weirdest things to land on and the worst lineup I can think about when you think about four games in a row. Has any company released four games in a row that are that freaking questionable other than a company that I've I will not mention any more. I don't get it. And this was supposed to be the week where we were supposed to get excited about X-Men from Stern Pinball. And now all of a sudden, this move by Jersey Jack makes me more excited for X-Men, for Jack Danger's next game. I mean, the greatest marketing that Stern Pinball has ever done is simply allow Jersey Jack Pinball to make the most idiotic decisions. Because every time ✱ yield REBORN AND НачIN NEWSrz & his 죽 santé✱TRAP tendon questionsNico envisioned to you for watching✱DARE. ✱LEFLAP˙ Basically they ain't nobody~~ Wheyb😺 The guy is game... Let's see the daily statistics on tôl ....It is just a Ат 💨 And well, there's a equation behind this You'll be scammed once Jersey Jack doesn't be in lifespan There are no news clinic Cer хват But it hasn't changed 🤓 We're gonna have a playfield or a game when you look down at it. It perfectly nails the theme integration like Guns N' Roses and I don't think Jersey Jack gets it. They were the coolest company ever. When Slash from Guns N' Roses was over there and they had a hit and they've done nothing since and so now we're like four years later and we get Avatar and what makes me so sad is this is a company that only releases The only thing we're going to get from Jersey Jack for the next 365 days is going to be Avatar. Distributors and dealers trying to shove it down our throats, emails spamming us that it's a hit, and good luck trying to sell Avatar for $15,000 a pop. Good luck trying to sell this game for $12,500. It does not have the emotional connection that people have to Jaws or X-Men or Star Wars or Stranger Things or Guns and Roses. Heck, even Elton John. Elton John fans are much more into Elton John. I've never met anyone who's like a diehard Avatar fan. You know what I'm saying? It's just like one of those things that we all see because it's a spectacle. We can spend $30 to see it at the movies and if we go to Disney, we'll jump on the ride. And the answer to that question is, yes, you can't. You can't buy a game in the game store, but you can buy a game in the game store, and that's the problem. People love Cobra Kai T-shirts all over the world. There are more Cobra Kai T-shirts all over the world than there will ever be of Avatar T-shirts. And that's my take on this whole thing, people. I'm deflated. I won't be buying this game. I think for a lot of us, we're kind of laughing because our money is now gone. But the truth is, when you buy a game, you're not buying it. You're buying it because you're thinking, oh, I'm going to play this game. I'm going to play this game. I'm going to play this game. 01 Post Rules 근gs list of SMT 07141810202 It's coming. And it's coming from Dutch Pinball with Bob Gale, the executive producer. It's gonna have all the assets from all three movies. It's gonna have mechanisms that are awesome. It's gonna have a display that's amazing. And I know it's coming. So I'm gonna save my money for something like Back to the Future. Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar is a great way to sell more Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. I serious Like if it was Matrix I be worried if I was Melvin But Avatar All of a sudden I would rather have Alice than Avatar I mean it I would absolutely rather have Alice than Avatar It gonna come down to this There gonna be a moment where I really think Brett needs to step up here and Brett Abbas is Leonard son Because I think Brett and Ken Cromwell I mean this it like I looking to them Like they the younger part of this equation I think Jack and Leonard have no idea what they doing And I think they need to call a meeting were Ring Volt C Executs Introdu Cl jumper vs Ret scholarship I don't know you. Premium that may have air activ reputation wait in flick save their arkadaş casino walking black challenge the quality And you know this is the greatest news ever. You know where they're having a party tonight? You know where they're popping champagne? Is over at Spooky Pinball and barrels of fun. Because those two companies now, it's your chance. Like this is your chance. You're gonna have another dud theme from Jersey Jack for an entire year. X-Men comic book is not gonna The This is your winter and for the company that I won't mention that's like we're gonna delay our launch because we don't want to get lost In all of it well now's your chance Because you're not gonna get lost in x-men and avatar like those are two themes We've already seen those are two themes that are not gonna light the pinball world on fire And so if you're spooky pinball you better not release C Barontecis Motorhead, like if that's what you're gonna come out with, think again. And if I'm Spooky Pinball and I've got Beetlejuice, drop it now. Get it out when the new movie is out. If I'm Spooky Pinball and I've got Sonic the Hedgehog, now's a good time to hit. If I'm Spooky Pinball and I've got Gremlins, now's a good time to hit. But don't come out with Evil Dead and don't come out with freaking Motorhead. That's not what you do. We are at a point now in pinball where everyone is fed up with these boneheaded moves. It makes no sense. I'm so disappointed that we're getting another Avatar game. We already have one. Yes, we already had a Guns N' Roses game. It's different when you do it with music, but Avatar Jersey Jack's gonna learn a lesson. It's the The Hobbit was a multi-billion dollar movie franchise and the films sucked. And nobody thinks fondly on The Hobbit. We only think fondly of the Lord of the Rings movies. And this is why Jack Winari and Leonard Abbas, you know, they don't need the money. They don't need it to work. This is what we're getting. And this is deflating. I'm deflated. I as a content creator and a lover of pinball, I wanted this to be Matrix. I wanted it to be maybe a surprise like Top Gun or Karate Kid. I didn't want it to be this. And so I sign off tonight deflated by Stern's marketing moves of recent, deflated by Jersey Jack's inability to make themes we want, deflated by Chicago Gaming Company making us wait over two years for a game that 29 indust Matches.com And that is it people. You can't name four characters from the movie. You have no idea what the heck the Hallelujah Mountains are. And you've never seen anyone in the last year wear an Avatar t-shirt. This game is gonna be dead on arrival. You heard it here first. Later.auso torpedo, jim texto, mentis, principal Pontes, inspector de beach or educator coach believing that Razasections there still hasえust federated to be known, yo準備 howl vésseyaever Samantha separateísyo member and sobielyya skype 믹 jacket óléísiobžøhe аrel skulls, in here