Episode 845: "No Kingpin, But More GOTG Pro"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 25s·analyzed·Sep 14, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.037

TL;DR

Kingpin dead, GOTG Pros incoming, market fatigue, Foo Fighters predicted GOTY.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Circus Maximus's defunct Kingpin remake project (abandoned after 5+ years in development), Stern's decision to produce more Guardians of the Galaxy Pro machines due to strong used-market pricing, and broader market concerns about boutique manufacturers, Jersey Jack's Elton John title, and secondary market pricing trends. He expresses skepticism about current pinball offerings and predicts Foo Fighters will win game-of-the-year honors.

Key Claims

Circus Maximus announced Kingpin remake in March 2018 with plans for late 2018/early 2019 production, sold ~250 translites at $250 each, and has been silent for 3-4 years without updates.
high confidence · Kaneda read the original announcement from This Week In Pinball dated March 15, 2018, and confirmed the project is now effectively dead.
Stern's new factory can produce 5-7 hundred games per week, giving them capacity to release multiple title runs simultaneously.
medium confidence · Kaneda stated this as explanation for why Guardians Pro release doesn't preclude other concurrent productions.
Used Guardians of the Galaxy Pro machines are selling for $6,500-$6,800 on Pinside Marketplace despite being 4-5 years old with hundreds of plays.
high confidence · Kaneda directly checked Pinside Marketplace pricing and used this as rationale for Stern's decision to re-release new Pros at comparable pricing.
Guardians of the Galaxy was originally designed as Iron Maiden and re-skinned at the 11th hour to become Guardians IP.
medium confidence · Kaneda stated this as a known industry fact explaining why the game mechanics don't align well with the theme.
In a Kaneda Patreon poll (609 members), 75% of respondents said they do not believe Jersey Jack's Elton John will be a hit game.
high confidence · Kaneda presented this as his own market research conducted with his club membership.
American Pinball chose not to renew the Cuphead license and Cuphead is not selling well commercially.
medium confidence · Kaneda stated this as information shared with him and referenced the low commercial performance of the title.
Batman SLE secondary market pricing has risen from $15,000 MSRP to $28,000-$30,000+ recently, with only 80 units in existence.
high confidence · Kaneda used his personal purchase ($25,000) and recent observed sales ($30,000+) to illustrate the trend.
Stern will not sell replacement decals or parts for limited edition games like Batman SLE even to verified owners.

Notable Quotes

“Kingpin, the extremely rare game from Capcom, will be remade in all caps by Circus Maximus! The intention is to have a Kingpin available for play for the entire Texas Pinball Festival...”
This Week In Pinball (March 15, 2018 announcement, read by Kaneda) @ ~3:30 — Sets up the contrast between Circus Maximus's bold 2018 announcement and their complete silence 5+ years later, illustrating why the boutique pinball industry is viewed skeptically.
“I don't understand why people go through all of this effort to try to do this stuff, to take consumer mate/man... They probably realize how damn hard it is to set up American Pinball manufacturing company.”
Kaneda @ ~6:00 — Expresses frustration with Circus Maximus's failure and speculates on manufacturing complexity as a barrier to boutique success.
“I guarantee you they would sell more Kingpins than Cuphead. You want to hear something funny? American Pinball did not renew the license for Cuphead.”
Kaneda @ ~6:30 — Implies Cuphead was a poor IP choice for American Pinball and that Kingpin would have been more commercially viable.
“If we keep looking backwards in pinball, I don't think that's what people want. I think what people want is for us to get inspired by all of the magic from the 90s and apply some of that magic to these modern games...”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Argues against remakes/classics and frames community preference for new contemporary themes over retro properties.
“If you go on to Pinside Marketplace and you want to buy a freaking Guardians Pro... everybody wants like 6500 or 6800 for a freaking game that is like four or five years old...”
Kaneda @ ~11:00 — Justifies Stern's Guardians Pro re-release decision based on robust secondary market pricing data, demonstrating rational business logic.
“I have 609 club members. That is more than half of the potential buyers of a Jersey Jack pinball collector's edition run... 75% of people said they do not believe that Elton John by Jersey Jack pinball is going to be a hit game.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00 — Presents market research showing significant community skepticism about Jersey Jack's Elton John title choice, raising questions about manufacturer theme selection process.

Entities

Kanedaperson Circus MaximuscompanyStern PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Kingpingame

Signals

?
product_launch: Circus Maximus Kingpin remake project officially dead after 5+ years in development with no updates since early 2018; approximately 250 translite pre-orders ($250 each) never fulfilled.
high · Kaneda declared the project dead after reading the original March 2018 announcement, noting 3-4 years of complete silence from the company.
$
market_signal: Used Guardians of the Galaxy Pro machines selling for $6,500-$6,800 on Pinside Marketplace despite being 4-5 years old with hundreds of plays, creating strong used-market price floor that justifies Stern's new production run.
high · Kaneda directly checked Pinside Marketplace pricing and confirmed $6,500-$6,800 ask prices, directly linking this to Stern's business decision.
~
sentiment_shift: Jersey Jack Elton John title shows 75% community disinterest in Kaneda's Patreon poll (609 respondents, 75% negative), raising serious questions about theme selection process for high-priced collector's editions.
high · Kaneda presented his own Patreon poll results showing overwhelming community skepticism about Elton John appeal.
?
product_concern: Guns N' Roses CE exhibits weak flipper feel and floaty gameplay after consistent play; Jersey Jack successfully retrofitted flipper feel on Godfather and Toy Story 4 but has not released retrofit kit for GNR despite player complaints.
high · Kaneda stated that jersey Jack fixed flipper feel on newer games but won't release retrofit kit, and identified weak flippers as major factor preventing GNR value stabilization.
$
market_signal: Batman SLE secondary market prices have inflated from $15,000 MSRP to $28,000-$30,000+ in recent sales; Godfather CE expected to decline from $15,000 MSRP to $12,500-$13,000 by end of 2023; Attack from Mars LE at $16,500 despite $9,500 original MSRP.

Topics

Circus Maximus Kingpin Remake (abandoned project)primaryStern Guardians of the Galaxy Pro re-release and secondary market pricingprimaryJersey Jack Elton John theme skepticism and market fitprimarySecondary market pricing trends and collector behaviorprimaryBoutique pinball manufacturer credibility and teasing strategyprimary2023 pinball game quality assessment and Foo Fighters dominanceprimaryGuns N' Roses CE flipper feel issues and Jersey Jack retrofit optionssecondaryBatman SLE limited availability and Stern parts support policiessecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda expresses frustration with boutique manufacturer failures (Circus Maximus), skepticism about current game offerings and their market appeal (Elton John, Venom), dissatisfaction with manufacturer business practices (forced bundling, no parts support, excessive teasing), and disappointment in 2023's overall pinball output. However, some optimism about Keith Elwin's upcoming game and Foo Fighters' reception tempers the overall negativity. The tone is critical and cautionary, warning listeners against overpaying in secondary market.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

Oh, you're gonna let it all hang out, Fat Bottom Girls, you make the rockin' world go round. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Oh, welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. We're gonna talk about on this episode how Stern's December title is going to be the game that who wants? Guardians of the Galaxy Pro? Oh, it's like a fall back in your seat moment when you hear that. But I'm going to explain to you why I actually understand why Stern is doing this. We're going to talk about Kingpin Pinball by Circus Maximus is now officially dead. I'm going to read you something that's going to make you laugh. For all you newbies that have come into this hobby like during COVID or like right after COVID, you don't understand why so many of these pinball boutique ventures are laughed at by everybody else. I'm going to read you something that's going to make everybody laugh, and we're just going to go around the horn and talk about what's going on in the pinball industry. Maybe we'll talk about those translates that Mr. Franchi is going to sell to you again after he told you he wasn't selling anymore after Texas Pinball Festival. All right, everybody, let's start this episode with this. I want to read you something that came to us. I want to read you this date because it's going to make you laugh. I love that we're declaring it's like, what, September 13th? And we're declaring that Circus Maximus is now not going to make Kingpin. Let me read you a story. This is the announcement, ladies and gentlemen, from March 15th of 2018. This is almost six years ago. This is five and a half years ago. Let me read you what This Week in Pinball said. The announcement. Kingpin, the extremely rare game from Capcom, will be remade in all caps by Circus Maximus! The intention is to have a Kingpin available for play for the entire Texas Pinball Festival and to build significantly more than just the test machine they are bringing to TPF. The plan is for production in late 2018 or early 2019. early 2019 that will be freaking five years ago when we get to the next freaking tpf and they sold people translates i think they sold like 250 translates for 250 bucks and that was like to secure your spot to get one of these kingpins let me tell you something this company has been dead for like three to four years now and they have not given any updates they have not told anybody anything and we're now declaring them dead. I just want to say, I don't understand why people go through all of this effort to try to do this stuff, to take consumer money. I wouldn't have any problems that they built the prototype. I played the prototype. It's a pretty decent game. It's a pretty cool game. And then what happened? Like we still don't know where everything went wrong. And I can only imagine what did go wrong. They probably realize how damn hard it is to set up a pinball manufacturing company. But what still surprises me to this day, with all these other companies making pinball machines, and these guys found out a way to remake Kingpin, and they did all the hard work to figure that out, I'm still shocked that a company like American Pinball didn't pick up Kingpin. I guarantee you they would sell more Kingpins than Galactic Tank Force. You want to hear something funny? American Pinball did not renew the license for Galactic Tank Force. Somebody let me know this. I was actually considering the ultimate troll move ever that I would apply for the Galactic Tank Force license and become the sole owner of one of the most valueless pinball IPs of all time. But I'm not. Kenaid is a nice guy. I'm not toxic. I will let them renew that title even though they are not selling any of those games. So yes, Circus Maximus is not gonna make Kingpin. Now here's the question. What are they gonna do for all of those people that bought those ugly Translites. And if you haven't seen these Translites, they were working with a new artist and they are absolutely hideous. Now, do we think this game is really dead? Maybe. Let's just throw something crazy out there. Maybe this is one of the remake games that's gonna come from the Pinball Brothers. Maybe the reason they're not making it on their own is that they ran into trouble with the license. I'm not sure who owns this license. I just feel like all the old titles, Rick over at Planetary Pinball owns everything. It's like nobody else has any rights to make these games other than Rick. I don't know. That sounds like a pipe dream. I just don't think we're ever going to see Kingpin. I think it was a really interesting game like five, six years ago. But I don't think people really care anymore. Whenever I put up a poll, everybody wants new games. I don't think most people want to go back and look at yesteryear's titles. I think the excitement in pinball is about what's around the corner, what is new, what is fresh, how are you going to implement a new theme, how are you going to bring new contemporary themes to pinball, what are you going to do with animations, with deeper code. These older games, they had their moment. They had their moment and the moment is over. If we keep looking backwards in pinball, I don't think that's what people want. I think what people want is for us to get inspired by all of the magic from the 90s and apply some of that magic to these modern games but I don think we want to look backwards and that all we really want right it like every new game that comes out we are very hopeful that it is going to be inspired by some of that Bally Williams engineering magic it's going to have beautiful artwork it's going to have a theme we love and yet we've been so disappointed over the last couple of years with the new in box offerings All right, so why is Stern Pinball going to remake more Guardians of the Galaxy Pros? Not premiums, but pros. And I know a lot of people are like making fun of this. I think everybody was hoping they were going to do another run of Stranger Things. I wouldn't count that out. I don't think this going on the line is really going to be the only thing they do in November, December. Remember, Stern is in this new factory where they can crank out like five, six, seven hundred games a week. So do you really think the only thing they're going to be making is like Venom and maybe some more James Bonds and maybe these Guardians pros? I don't know. At any moment, Stern can probably snap their fingers and put another thousand of any title into the world with a single move. And I know everybody is hoping for more premiums of Stranger Things. Will they do an anniversary edition? It is also going to be the 50th anniversary of KISS coming up, I think, next year. So there is always going to be anniversary potentials for Stern Pinball. But here's the reason why. It's simply this. If you go on to the Pinside Marketplace and you want to buy a freaking Guardians Pro, go look at how much money everybody is asking for a guardians pro i thought people would be asking like 5500 6 000 no everybody wants like 6500 or 6800 for a freaking game that is like four or five years old and has probably hundreds and hundreds of plays on it and they want that much money for a game so if stern has parts lying around and they didn't make all of them back then, because remember, Guardians was never uber popular. It came out, it had weird like call outs that were like sound alike actors, whatever it was, whatever that thing is Rare Heroes still hung up on. It didn't really hit. And it never really caught the imagination of the pinball zeitgeist and the community. We still don't clamor for Guardians of the Galaxy. I think it was franchise weakest art package. I think it was kind of uninspired. And for those of you who are new to the hobby, the reason why Guardians never really took off is that game was supposed to be Iron Maiden and they re-skinned it at the 11th hour to be Guardians of the Galaxy. So it is one of those games that was not designed from the ground up to be the theme that it ended up being. And I think we see it. Like there's not a lot in that game mechanically that is super wow or is super connected to the theme of Guardians. But that being said, if Stern is looking at the used market on Guardian Pros, it makes total sense to release some new pros right at the exact same price as all of these used machines are being priced at all of these years later. All right, so that's Guardians pro. Like, are we going to see any other mysteries over at Stern Pinball? It still just feels like everybody's waiting for Jaws. Everybody's waiting for Jaws. I put up a poll on Patreon about whether or not we think Elton John can save Jersey Jack Pinball. And every time I ask this question about Elton John, it is so underwhelming the response you get back. And I'm really worried about this theme. I think 75% of people said they do not believe that Elton John by Jersey Jack pinball is going to be a hit game. It is not a theme for them. And this is just Canada doing very simple market research with a pretty decent sample size. Like I have 609 club members. That is more than half of the potential buyers of a Jersey Jack pinball collector's edition run. And so what market research did Jersey Jack do to pick this theme? What market research did they do to pick The Godfather or Toy Story 4? It really just irks me that so much is at stake. You're going to build a game. You're going to spend years building something and you're going to pick a theme that people don't really want. Now, I still think Elton John has a sleeper hit potential because it is high energy music. You can't take anything away from him, but I just don't think a music pin is ever going to be the answer for Jersey Jack Pinball. I think people want to see Jersey Jack Pinball take a TV show or take a movie theme and really integrate it right. I feel like everybody wants Jersey Jack Pinball to make a game as interesting as the big Lebowski, but with that big 27-inch screen and Keith P. Johnson doing really deep code. Can you imagine if we have the deep code of Jersey Jack pinball and a game like the Big Lebowski? That's what people want from Jersey Jack for $12,000 or $15,000. Like this new accessory package for freaking the Godfather Elite You can only buy it in the bundle You have to buy everything together for they won sell you the pieces separately well that means I can buy it because I was going to buy just the leg things to put on Killian crib I not going to spend on everything. I just want those two silver things to put on his crib and make Killian into the mobster royalty that he is. But everything they do, why would you do that? Why are you forcing your customers to buy it as a bundle? I get it if you want to sell it as a bundle, but at least sell the other stuff separately? What if people just want to buy the topper? I mean, heck, in today's pinball landscape, that topper would probably be $1,000. Why not just sell as many of those as you can? Every move they make, it just reeks of desperation and it's not done right. All right, Jersey Jack, I really hope we get to see this next game from Steve Ritchie sometime soon. You know, look, we're about a month away from Pinball Expo. We are going to see something new at the show from Pinball Brothers. We might see that mystery game show up. I think everyone's tired of all these teasers. It's really strange to me. Why are you teasing your company when you haven't done anything yet? It's different if you're teasing the next game from Keith Elwin. At least there's some reason behind your teases. But man, look at all these boutique companies that have come and gone. And I think if you're a no-name boutique company and you haven't proven yourself yet, Like teasing month after month after month, making jokes about how now it's after Labor Day and the real work begins. Just show something. The more you tease, the more people are going to look at you. I'm telling you this. They're going to look at you with more skepticism than optimism. If you just came out of nowhere and dropped a game on the show floor, that's a baller move. But this whole thing makes me feel like they don't know what the timing is. They don't really have a plan and they're just doing stuff randomly. like when they sent out that email this mystery company when it was just the open backbox and the lcd screen that's all you got that's all you got after these business card teasers this is all you can do is just release blurry photos of the game being made and some armor drying on a rack that's it that's what you're gonna do i didn't even get the email i heard they emailed other pinball content creators and canada doesn't even make the list i think they might be mad at me thinking I know something. Trust me, if I knew what this game was, I would spoil it in a heartbeat. Yeah, we might see that at Pinball Expo. They better get these games out fast because once Keith Elwin's game gets released, everyone else is going to have a real hard time selling their machines. It's just the way it's going to go like in Q1 of 2024. All right, what else is going on in pinball? We're all waiting for that game. Well, look, if you're going to Pinball Expo, Here's your third chance to buy some Translites from Mr. Christopher Franchi. He's going to be selling more of his beautiful Translites. They are beautiful, but I just want to say this. The last time he sold these Jaws Translites, he told everybody, this is the last time they're going to be available. Now, he's selling 10 more. His selection of Translites should all be pinball machines. It's like Jaws. It's Wonder Woman, the Linda Carter Wonder Woman. It's the old Superman with Christopher Reeve. It's Beetlejuice. It's Prince. You know, it's like everybody wants these games. And why are we getting Galactic Tank Force? All of these beautiful themes. I would love to have any of them. So if you're at Expo, here's your 13th chance to get the last run of Christopher Franchise Translates. All right, what else is going on in pinball? Let me ask you guys a question. I got hit up by a friend. And he's like, Chris, I have an opportunity to get a Batman Super Limited Edition game. and he wants my advice on whether or not he thinks this is a fair price for the game. So let's talk about it right now. I bought my Batman SLE for $25,000. I think the price he was looking at was somewhere around $28,000. It is crazy. When these things were $15,000, everybody made fun of it. $13,000 over what it was originally. Now, a couple of these games have sold recently for more than $30,000. And so he's asking me, Chris, should I get it at this price? Now, the first question I said to him was, do you have pictures of the game? Because I've been around some Batman SLEs where there might be a scratch on the cabinet. There might be some issues with the play field. And I definitely would go over a game with a fine comb before I spent $28,000 on it. Because here's the sad part about owning a Batman SLE. You got to be so careful because Stern will never sell you ever again replacement decals or replacement anything for the game. And I just want to say this for the record. I don't like that. There are only 80 Batman SLEs out in the world. If you can verify that you're an owner, why wouldn't Stern sell you a replacement decal if you needed it? Now, look, the key thing there is if you need it, you need to show that yours is damaged. And I understand why they won't just sell every owner replacements because guess what those people will do? They will just turn around and sell them. I remember a few years ago, you could buy the decal set for Batman SLE. I don't know who would put it on a cabinet though because it's such a poser move to put those decals on a non because everyone who walks up to it is going to be like oh my God you got an SLE And then you have to be like no I don I actually have the V6 I don have the V8 version of the game All right let end this podcast You know I used to call this Canada collector corner Let just call this pinball machines that people want over $15,000 for a medieval madness for 16, five. It's not even a CGC game. It is a restored Original for $16,500. Metallica Master of Puppets LE for $17,950. Attack from Mars LE $16,500. Collectors Quality Indiana Jones for $25,000 firm. A Godzilla LE for $18,000. A Stranger Things LE selling at $17,000 or best offer. A Medieval Madness Royal Edition selling at $17,500. A Pirates LE, 23,000 firm, but it has the Dauntless and the Elite Topper. A Jurassic Park Limited Edition, new in box for 17,000. Here's the funniest one. There's a Guns N' Roses CE for 19,000. This one makes me laugh. Someone is trying to sell a Godfather CE with 102 plays for $17,000. $17,000 for Godfather CE. Let's see where Godfather CE prices are right now. So there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Most people are asking $15,000, which is MSRP. There's one here for $2,000 or best offer, which is for a spot. So that would be saving you about $500. And then there's one for 14-2 firm. so right now 14.2 is the lowest price you can get one at we all know when they make a thousand of these games you're going to easily be able to get one for less than fifteen thousand dollars i think by the end of the year you're going to see godfathers closer to 12 5 13 000 and i think once Steve Ritchie's pin comes out i think this game's going to go down even more guns and roses values are continuing to go down i still think in the long run people in the long run guns and Guns N' Roses Collector's Edition with only 500 might hold some value or stabilize, but not right now. Not right now. There's only two things that I think could help Guns N' Roses sort of stabilize and those CEs to gain value. The two things are this. They need to finish the code and they need to fix the flipper feel on the game. If they retrofit the better flipper feel that is on The Godfather and Toy Story 4, but mostly on The Godfather, Jersey Jack said they fixed the sort of sluggish flipper feel of their games. Why won't they release a flipper kit? And I think that would significantly help with Guns N' Roses because anyone who's played one understands that the game does get very floaty and the flippers get very weak after consistent gameplay. So we shall see what happens. Never a dull moment in the world of pinball, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Kaneda. Thank you for being a club member. I feel like we're at the calm before the storm. Do you guys feel this way? You know, I'm on pin side every day. I'm still seeing people complain in that. Where is new in box price is going to go thread. Iceman has tapped out of the industry at these prices. I think everyone's just waiting. I think we're waiting to see if there's going to be a game that justifies these high prices. I think most of us are fatigued about complaining about high prices. And I think we want a game to come out and reawaken our imagination in pinball. And I really hope we get that in 2024. I don't think we're going to get that in 2023. I think this year is going to go down as another major, major, mediocre year in pinball. It just is. And I think we're going to be handing the trophy for best pinball machine of the year. I think we're going to be handing it to Foo Fighters. I think Foo Fighters is going to dominate a lot of the twippies this year. I just don't see anything else knocking it off that top spot. I think we're going to see a lot of desperation by distributors come the end of the year. I think we're going to see a lot of sales. I think we're going to see a lot of backdoor deals on Venom. I think it's going to be really hard to sell those Venom LEs. I think the distributors have to buy them because if they don't buy those Venom LEs, they're not going to get their allotments of Jaws LEs. And I think you're going to see more and more deals. So if I were you, I would just keep holding out. The prices are only going to go down. They are never going to go back up to COVID level prices. and a lot of games are still priced like it's COVID. Apparently, there must be a lot of new people in this hobby that don't know what they're doing. You know, it was so easy to get an attack from Mars Ali when it came out. So easy to get. Now people are plunking down 16.5. The game was like 9,500 bucks. 9,500 bucks. And people are going to spend 7,000 more than that on the same game. I don't get it, everybody. Have a great night. We'll be back with more shows. You can tell I'm losing my voice a little bit, but I'm always committed to doing Canada's Pinball Podcast. and thank you to all you club members. You know, Twippy season is about to begin. Not really. Like Twippy voting is not until December. So we got a lot more episodes coming. Later.