Episode 1084: "Potter Delayed But It Doesn't Matter"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 1s·held·Apr 29, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Harry Potter delayed by licensing; King Kong disappoints mechanically; $15K games unsustainable as secondary market collapses.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Harry Potter licensing-driven delay, criticizes King Kong mechanical design and narrative cohesion despite Keith Elwin reputation, expresses concerns about the $15,000 price ceiling on limited edition pinball machines, and predicts widespread secondary market depreciation across recent Stern releases. He also provides updates on Back to the Future (Whitewood stage, summer 2026 prediction), X-Men code fixes, Dungeons & Dragons declining interest, and reinforces his WPD (Wait, Play, Decide) strategy for collectors in an oversaturated market.

Key Claims

Harry Potter (Jersey Jack) is approximately one month away from release due to license holder requesting minor changes
medium confidence · Kaneda citing hearing from industry sources about licensing delays preventing Friday show availability
King Kong Limited Edition and Premium Edition look nearly identical with minimal meaningful differences
high confidence · Kaneda comparing side-by-side photos, noting only front artwork, coin door, and easily replaceable inner art decals differ
King Kong's internal speakers cost only $35 but are presented as premium upgrade feature
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting audience feedback on speaker cost disparity
King Kong Limited Edition will depreciate to $10,000 within six months, losing $3,000 in value
low confidence · Kaneda making price prediction based on market trend analysis
King Kong's narrative doesn't cohesively deliver the intended flashback story despite designer Keith Elwin's explanation
high confidence · Kaneda analyzing actual gameplay footage and comparing to disclosed narrative framework
Tariff impacts reduced European orders for King Kong Limited Edition, causing excess US inventory
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting insider information about distributor allocation shifts
Miracle Playfield (not Vader) will manufacture Harry Potter playfields, raising concerns about production capacity for unlimited run
medium confidence · Kaneda providing supply chain intel with uncertainty about CE playfield manufacturing
Back to the Future (Dutch Pinball) is in Whitewood stage and won't ship before summer 2026
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on Raza manufacturing timeline and facility burn rate (~€100k monthly without production)
George Gomez is personally overseeing X-Men code improvements with three-person team

Notable Quotes

“How many of these $15,000 games do they expect to sell if they make an unlimited amount of Harry Potter CEs? I do think that this is going to backfire.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis on unsustainable pricing and unlimited production strategy
“I think $10,000 is kind of all anybody wants to spend on a pinball machine. And I mean a high-end collectible pinball machine. Nobody wants to spend much more.”
Kaneda @ pricing discussion — Market threshold claim supporting depreciation predictions
“From an engineering standpoint, there's nothing really magical in this game, The King Kong. There's not.”
Kaneda @ King Kong analysis — Direct criticism of mechanical design despite designer reputation
“Because of Keith Elwin you can't say anything like that and the truth is this: he hasn't engineered anything nearly as impressive as Godzilla since Godzilla.”
Kaneda @ Keith Elwin effect discussion — Addresses fan gatekeeping and designer reputation protection in community
“I see a lot more creativity in the sandworm that Barrels of Fun engineered than anything going on the ball in Jersey Jack Pinball's court.”
Kaneda @ mechanical comparison — Comparative praise for Dune's engineering vs King Kong
“For $5 a month, I have saved so many of you thousands of dollars. That's not me asking you to raise your subscription amount, even though I just did.”
Kaneda @ subscriber value discussion — Self-promotional meta-commentary on advisory value
“It's a really good time now. You don't have to run at anything. Who has to run at Harry Potter CE if they're going to make an unlimited amount?”
Kaneda @ market strategy section — Frames WPD strategy and FOMO elimination
“The 'remaking' is on the wall. The threshold is $10,000. Nothing can hold at 13. Nothing's going to hold at 13 for very long.”

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyBarrels of FuncompanySpooky PinballcompanyDutch Pinballcompany Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson George Gomezperson

Signals

?
business_signal: Industry-wide secondary market collapse; only two games holding value in three years (Jaws LE, Metallica Remastered LE); Metallica sliding from $18-19k to $13k
high · Kaneda: 'There's only been two games over the last three years that even held value. Jaws Limited Edition and Metallica Remastered Limited Edition... Metallica now is sliding back down to 13.'
~
sentiment_shift: Keith Elwin fanbase prevents constructive criticism; designer reputation gatekeeping limiting honest discourse about game merits
high · Kaneda: 'Because of Keith Elwin you can't say anything like that... his fans don't allow for a lot or any even constructive criticism of what this man does.'
?
design_philosophy: King Kong narrative framework (flashback to Kong capture story) not cohesively implemented across gameplay; designer Keith Elwin explained story but execution disconnected from design
high · Kaneda analyzing gameplay: 'When you watch the game being played, does any of it feel like that? ... You're jumping around from being on a building to tossing taxi cabs, to being back on the island, to fighting spiders and lizards.'
$
market_signal: Tariff impacts reducing European demand for King Kong LE; excess inventory redirected to US distributors
medium · Kaneda: 'I heard because of the tariffs, there were not as many orders for these games overseas. So more of these games allocated to US distributors.'
$
market_signal: $15,000 price point unsustainable; market ceiling identified at $10,000 for collectors; wholesale over-ordering predicted

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.069

0:00

I was far too scared to hit him, but I would hit him in a heartbeat now. That's the thing with anger, it begs to stick around. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. We are almost at International Harry Potter Day and it doesn't feel like we're going to get anything on that day from Jersey Jack Pinball. Here's what I'm hearing. I'm hearing this game is being held up by the license holder. They're asking for minor changes to a few things. And because of that, Jersey Jack Pinball is not able to show this game on Friday. I don't even know if that was the initial plan, but I am hearing now that the game might be a month away. A freaking month. Why did Jersey Jack get up there at Texas Pinball Festival and tell us to hold on to your money, people? Hold on, because I got Harry Potter coming. Why did we get that letter two weeks ago when King Kong dropped about how this is the culmination of Jersey Jack's dream? And then nothing. But here's the good news. Dune is not even close to selling out. King Kong LE is not close to selling out, so you might as well continue to wait. And I think most people are going to wait. Now, here's the part that scares me. How many of these $15,000 games do they expect to sell if they make an unlimited amount of Harry Potter CEs? I do think that this is going to backfire. And I think we're seeing it throughout all the pinball. I think there's a threshold. I do. I think $10,000 is kind of all anybody wants to spend on a pinball machine. And I mean a high-end collectible pinball machine. Nobody wants to spend much more. $15,000? And $15,000 for a game that they might make thousands of. I'm worried that the distributors are going to order and over-order this game and be stuck with them. Guns N' Roses Collector's Edition right now, Zach Manning has one for sale. $9,999 or best offer. it's not even moving and there's only 500 of those i've got one of those i've been telling people for the longest time i think by the time i go to sell my guns and roses collector's edition i'm looking at like i don't know 8500 on the table that's most likely what i'm gonna get and what's crazy about that is this game that was once selling for 18 grand i'm gonna take a $4,000 hit on this game. Nothing is immune to what is going on to the market forces. Let's talk about King Kong LE. I mean, I put a side-by-side photo of King Kong LE and King Kong Premium, and they look exactly the same. There's a little bit of a difference on the front artwork by the coin door, and there's the inner art decals that you could easily get, and the armor, but the main art on the cabinet, on the play field, exactly the same. And I think what's happening now too is Stern Pinball actually has to hit this head on. They have to address this head on. They have to start giving the LE versions of their $13,000 games. They have to differentiate them a lot more than they're doing. Remember, this game is twice the price of a King Kong Pro. It's almost $3,500 more than the premium. And on my last show, I talked about the speakers inside the game. People told me they're like, Kaneda, those speakers are $35.

4:36

$35. dollars. I spent more on lunch than the upgraded speaker system you get in a Stern LE. This needs to change. They need to give you exclusive toppers. They need to give you exclusive modes. And heck, for $3,500 more, you should get an exclusive mech or two in the game. The days are over. everybody realizes now none of these things are hard to get. They're all losing value. And if you went in on a King Kong LE, trust me, it's going to be $10,000 in six months. You're going to lose $3,000 in six months. Oh, now we know what the storyline is. Did you see this? Keith Elwin did an interview with our friend, was it Gonzo over there in Europe? And he said, here's the storyline. Now we figured it out. You have already captured King Kong. He's already in New York City. And now the point of this game is to watch the recap the black and white recap video of all the things that went on on Terror Island to capture King Kong It like everything in the game is a flashback to what it took to get King Kong to New York City. And look, I've watched this game now being played for a few hours. It doesn't feel anything like that narrative. When you start a game, sure, there's a little bit of that black and white film reel, but that's not pulled across the entire game. This game doesn't feel like a stroll down memory lane. You don't really start out with King Kong in New York City in a cage on a stage and that Indiana Jones figure is on stage saying, we've captured the beast and this is what it took to capture the mighty Kong. Where is any of that narrative. See, I understand they have an idea of a framework of what the story is, but still, when you watch the game being played, does any of it feel like that? And it still doesn't make much sense to me because I'm watching the streams. And in just like 30 seconds, you're jumping around from being on a building to tossing taxi cabs, to being back on the island, to fighting spiders and lizards and then you're back on top of the building. All this is happening at the same time. I get that you might not want a linear story, but at least make it more cohesive. I understand that Keith Elwin is a great designer. I understand the gameplay is great. I'm just not sure when it comes to storytelling, these companies even know what the heck they're doing. I don't. You know, when look at all the inserts in King Kong. How does that work? Like they've got all these inserts, all these modes mapped out, but I'm not so sure they really know how to stitch it all together in a very cohesive narrative. And you just have to kind of take their word for it. Here's what's going on. Well, here's what's going on. The reason why there are a lot more Kong LEs for sale is that I am hearing that not all of them went over to Europe. I heard because of the tariffs, there were not as many orders for these games overseas. So more of these games got allocated to US distributors. And that might be why you saw more LEs pop up for sale when they were initially sold out by some of these main distributors. But I still think because the LE is just so similar to the premium. It's not really creating that FOMO and that OMG. I have to have this nicest version of the game. So I'm hoping to play King Kong at Allentown this Friday. I'm gonna be there. If you're gonna be at Allentown, I will be there. Friday morning, Frank is picking me up in some vehicle. We're gonna take turns. Someone's gonna drive down there and someone's gonna drive back. But I plan to get there around 10 a.m. when the show opens up. And the other game I'm really excited to play on Friday is Dune Pinball by Barrels of Fun. I'm not sure how much code is going to be in the game when I play it, but this is another game. I'm on Pinside, people, and I've been watching the thread, and Barrels of Fun is another game that is brand new. It does feel like the hype around this game is somewhat buried in the sand. And I'm curious to see how the game shoots, how it plays. The fun part about playing this game at a show versus playing it at barrels is I'll be able to jump on all of these games, not just Kong, not just Dune, but Labyrinth and Elton John and all the other games at the show. Because I think sometimes when you cross shop games, it does allow you to formulate a little bit of a better opinion about how good a game shoots because you get to compare it to all these other games that are there at the same time. So look forward to my first impressions of playing this game, the things I'm curious about. I'm curious about the shot geometry. I'm curious about that sandworm. What is it like experiencing that in real life? Is it gonna be too slow? Is it gonna be magical? I'm curious about the lighting in the game. Now, of course, playing this game at a show, it's not going to be the best lighting. It's going to be very bright. I want to see if that expression lighting system in the game actually reflects onto the play field or if you don't notice it from the player's point of view. And then obviously, I'm really curious about the code. Are we going to see clips from the movies? We know they have it. The clips are synced up with the actors. That's great. I'm curious to see how it's integrated into the game. And the reason why I want to get there early is hopefully we can crank the volume and I can really hear all the atmospheric score of this pin at the show. So another game that'll probably be at the show, even though they're all sold out, is the world's new number one pinball machine of all time. Spooky Pinball's Evil Dead is now at the top of the pin side top 100 ranking. If there ever was a moment where this ranking makes no sense, it is right now. But that's just because you don't need a lot of votes to be validated on that top ranking system. You might have 100 or 200 votes for Evil Dead and you could get a 9 And that matters more than like 2 votes for a Medieval Madness that might have a 9 I say this it all splitting hairs Nobody thinks that Evil Dead is better than Godzilla because what's going to happen next is the Stern Army is going to catch wind that Evil Dead is now number one and the Elwynn fanboys are going to come out of hiding and they're going to vote this game down. You know, we don't really talk about the Elwin effect, how he has his fans, how his fans don't allow for a lot or any even constructive criticism of what this man does. I'm just going to say this. As I look at King Kong, I am sure the game shoots phenomenally well. Absolutely. But from an engineering standpoint, there's nothing really magical in this game, King Kong. There's not. They repurposed the Incredible Hulk mech from Avengers from like 12 years ago. You got the gong. You got the spider that's just a magnet that's a cheap little cake topper on top of it. And then they added in the subway car last minute. And that's it. That's it. where's the magic where's the omg where's the thing that we've never seen before where's the freaking empire state building and again because it's keith elwynn you can't say anything like that and the truth is this he hasn't engineered anything nearly as impressive as godzilla since Godzilla. He hasn't. And Godzilla was $10,500 for the freaking LE. This game is $2,500 more than Godzilla. Does it look like there's more in it? More magical stuff engineered in it? But you're not allowed to say that, Chris. You gotta blindly support everything he does. He's the goat and the Goat can do no wrong. I'm not saying he did any wrong. I'm just saying he didn't do anything that special or magical on this game. Because designing unique layouts to this guy is easy. But what really makes a game a masterpiece is the combination of the layout with the magical toys. And I'm just not seeing it in King Kong. I see a lot more creativity in the sandworm that Barrels of Fun engineered than anything going on in King Kong. The ball is in Harry Potter's court, man. I mean it. The ball is in JJP's court. I think one of the reasons why they're waiting on Potter now is they realize Kong did not land with the same enthusiasm as Godzilla. I think they were worried. I really do. And I don't think they're worried about King Kong now. I don't think King Kong is going to be like Keith Elwin's like second best-selling pin. I don't. I think it's going to do all right. I do. I think it's going to shoot phenomenally well, but I also think a lot more people are going to wait on the sideline and pick up one of these when they lose a few thousand dollars, and they're going to people. I think Jersey Jack now is being a little bit more patient. They're probably just fine-tuning some details. I have a little bit of bad news. Miracle Playfield will be making playfields for Harry Potter. Now, will Vader be making the CE playfields like they did with Avatar? I don't know. I can't imagine they're going to with this unlimited run because Vader can do smaller batches. They can't do like three to four thousand of one model of Jersey Jack game. So I'm a little worried. I think Mirko is going to be back doing all of the playfields. I feel like Elton John playfields didn't really have many issues. So hopefully there's no issues with playfields and Harry Potter. I would hate to see Harry Potter come out and be plagued by any issue like playfields chipping or some mech that doesn't work right. I really hope this game has been properly tested. Now, we both probably know it hasn't been. We know this, right? None of these companies properly test these games because they care more about secrecy than adequately testing these games. So speaking of testing games, I am here to tell you that Back to the Future is being made by Dutch Pinball and it is currently in Whitewood stage. Now, does that mean it's coming sometime soon? I don't think so. I don't think you're going to see Back to the Future anytime in 2025. You know how I feel. I think you're going to see Raza and Melvin make like 200 to 300 Razas before we get to Back to the Future. It's just not going to be ready in time. I think they'll finish the Alice games and then there's going to be a gap. And you can't have a gap when you're a manufacturing facility because every month without a game on a line, I think they're burning something like a hundred thousand euros. And so they need a game on the line. I think that game will be Raza. Then I think we're going to get to Back to the Future. I hate to say this people, but I don think Back to the Future is going to come out until summer of 2026 That is my prediction I hope it comes out sooner but I don see it anytime before summer of 2026 Do you think George Gomez is going to be able to fix X He heard all the complaints and he's putting three people on the code to make this game better, and he's personally overseeing this. I'm like, all right, well, this game came out in like September of last year. Do you really think Stern is going to be able to turn around the uncanny X-Men? The value on the games have plummeted. Owners are frustrated. The game has a really unique layout, but it never came together. Do you think that Stern Pinball is going to be able to do a Miyakopa and fix this entire game? I just don't think it's going to happen. I really don't. There's too much existing in the code as it is that just doesn't work. I feel like they're going to have to start completely over. And it just feels like why would they do that? They've already got the money from the people who bought the games. There's no way they're going to sell a lot more of these. I bet they're a little bit worried because there's probably a bunch of these games sitting in a box unsold that they're never going to be able to move at MSRP. So maybe that's why they're going to invest time in it. I also know there's just something called pride. And Stern Pinball does take pride in its machines and they don't want to burn people with code that is underwhelming. but I just think everything about this game was rushed and I don't think they're going to be able to go back and fix it. The other Stern game you don't really hear a lot about recently is the most recent one and that's Dungeons and Dragons. Remember when this game came out, right? The Dragon Mag. Oh yeah, awesome. This is it. This is the save your own adventure. Choose your own pathway. This game is going to be amazing every Sunday. And then what? You don't hear anybody talk about this game that much because what's happening is this. Everyone who owns one is on the adventure. They're saving their progress. They're seeing most of the game. And I think then they're reaching a point where it's just kind of getting boring and it's like chopping wood and they have to do all these things they don't want to do over and over again to get to the few new things that they do want to do. And you don't hear people talk about it. But you know how I know this game is falling quickly out of favor? The LEs are now sliding down to 10. I think I saw one for 10.5. This game just came out. And now all of a sudden, every single LE sliding down to 10. People should have listened to Kaneda. For $5 a month, I have saved so many of you thousands of dollars. That's not me asking you to raise your subscription amount, even though I just did. I love it when it pisses people off. But think about this is where the fun is. I don't know about you guys, but I'm having so much fun just observing all of these companies trying to make money, trying to convince us that a pinball experience is worth well over $10,000, trying to keep collectors engaged as every single collector has lost $3,000 to $4,000 on every single LE except for one game. Well, no, two games. There's only been two games over the last three years that even held value. Jaws LE and Metallica Remastered LE. By the way, that game now is sliding back down to 13. Sliding back down to 13. It was going for 18, 19 when it first came out. The writing is on the wall. The threshold is $10,000. Nothing can hold at 13. Nothing. Nothing's going to hold at 13 for very long. The only stuff that's holding are themes that are both to the floor for people. They don't come up very often. It's a great time to be a buyer, it's a great time to engage in my new phrase, WPD, wait, play the game, and then decide. It's a really good time now. You don't have to run at anything. Who has to run at Harry Potter CE if they're going to make an unlimited amount? So wait, everybody, play the games, and then decide. Decide if you want to buy it. Decide if you want to play on location. And also the most important decision, even if you want to buy it, decide is now the right time to buy it. Because if I'm listening to Kaneda, King Kong LE is going to be 10K in six months. 100%, it's going to be that. And then all these other games, trust me, D&D LE is going to slide down to eight. Guns and Roses CE sliding down to eight. Everything else, X-Men LE sliding down to eight. Foo Fighters LE sliding down to eight they oversaturated everything the only thing that's not sliding to eight is canada's pinball podcast gonna stay at five dollars a month have a happy monday everybody we'll be back more coming this week canada out