Episode 708: "Has Spooky's Value Hit The Bottom?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·28m 56s·analyzed·Aug 17, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Spooky's Halloween/Ultraman face $2K losses; Kaneda questions JJP innovation and Haggis accountability.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Spooky Pinball's market collapse following poor reception to Halloween and Ultraman, predicting these games will continue depreciating to $6,500–$7,000 despite potential code fixes. He also critiques Jersey Jack Pinball's lack of innovation and unmet promises (replacement playfields, code balance), while praising Stern's consistency and reliability. Haggis Pinball faces accusations of missing delivery timelines and communication failures on Fathom Revisited.

Key Claims

Spooky Pinball took 1,750 non-refundable deposits for Halloween and Ultraman combined
high confidence · Kaneda speaking directly about Spooky's business model
Halloween and Ultraman machines lost approximately $2,000 in secondary market value before owners took possession
medium confidence · Kaneda describing market collapse; based on observation of secondary market pricing
Haggis Pinball told a customer their Fathom order would ship in 8 weeks, but after 20 weeks (5 months) the customer still has not received their game
high confidence · Kaneda referencing a specific customer case with timeline details
Haggis Pinball has built fewer than 20 Mermaid Edition Fathom games to date, despite pre-selling approximately 250 units
medium confidence · Kaneda stating 'I think they haven't even made twenty to date' out of 250 Mermaid editions
Halloween currently selling for approximately $7,500 on the secondary market
medium confidence · Kaneda citing current market price for Halloween machines
Stern Pinball has 4–5 games in advanced development with 3 games almost ready for release
medium confidence · Kaneda speculating based on designer activity and Stern's typical production cadence
Spooky Pinball's Halloween and Ultraman were originally designed as different games (John Wick and TNA2 respectively) before being reskinned
low confidence · Kaneda claiming 'They did not design these two games to be Halloween or Ultraman. They said it was John Wick' and referencing Rick and Morty as TNA2 reskin
Jersey Jack Pinball promised replacement playfields for Guns N' Roses in summer 2022 and has not delivered
high confidence · Kaneda directly addressing broken promise on replacement playfield program
Pat Lawler's three Jersey Jack Pinball games (Dialed In, Willy Wonka, Toy Story) recycle ideas from No Good Gophers

Notable Quotes

“If you've been in the Halloween thread, people are starting to debate whether or not these games have hit rock bottom in pricing and if the price of these games will increase over time.”
Kaneda @ ~2:00 — Sets up the central thesis about Spooky's secondary market valuation
“How is this not a lie? Like if someone says to me, you're going to have this in eight weeks, nine weeks go by, ten weeks, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, twenty weeks.”
Kaneda @ ~7:30 — Directly accuses Haggis Pinball of dishonesty regarding delivery timelines
“There's no way. I think there was 250 mermaid editions. Two hundred and fifty. And I think they haven't even made twenty to date. Twenty!”
Kaneda @ ~9:15 — Highlights massive gap between pre-orders and actual production for Haggis
“I think these games are going to continue to go down in value. I think both of these games are going to end up being worth around $6500 to $7000.”
Kaneda @ ~14:30 — Explicit prediction about Spooky's machine depreciation trajectory
“They need to make a game that actually has a toy in it. Look at Halloween and Ultraman. What toy is in the game? There's not one single toy.”
Kaneda @ ~18:45 — Core criticism of Spooky's design philosophy and value proposition
“Spooky Pinball is at a crossroads. They really are. Their next game is everything. It is everything.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Stakes assessment of Spooky's future market viability
“I don't think code fixes these games or makes the demand come back to these games. This is not Stranger Things, people.”
Kaneda @ ~17:15 — Argues that software improvements alone cannot rehabilitate Spooky's reputation
“I think Pat Lawler I'm just gonna say this. I think he's another one of these designers who was made to look amazing Because he had the Bally Williams engineers.”

Entities

Spooky PinballcompanyHaggis Pinballcompany Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyKanedapersonSpooky HalloweengameSpooky UltramangameFathom Revisited

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Spooky Pinball's Halloween and Ultraman experienced significant secondary market depreciation ($2,000 loss before possession) and collapsed demand post-launch, contrasting sharply with Rick and Morty's strong value retention
high · Halloween prices dropped from $9,000–$10,500 to $7,500; Ultraman similarly depreciated; Pinside user Curbin noted 'Halloweens dropped significantly' and blamed initial word-of-mouth damage
?
product_concern: Community reports significant code bugs, incomplete animations, and poor shot indication on Spooky's Halloween and Ultraman; players confused about gameplay objectives
high · Kaneda: 'they're having issues with the code... people are saying, I have no idea what to shoot... the inserts aren't really helping people'
?
business_signal: Haggis Pinball severely underwater on Fathom Revisited production: promised 8-week delivery, customer now waiting 20 weeks; only ~20 Mermaid Editions built of 250 pre-sold units; company avoiding community transparency
high · Kaneda: 'How many? Why is this such a mystery?' and referencing customer waiting 5 months past promised 2-month window
?
industry_signal: Kaneda contrasts Spooky's non-refundable deposit model with Stern's approach of not collecting deposits until production is ready; industry norm shift toward protecting customer capital
medium · Kaneda: Stern 'doesn't wing it... doesn't take non-refundable deposits... doesn't reveal a game and then make you wait four months'
?
product_concern: Spooky Halloween and Ultraman criticized as lacking physical toys entirely and being reskins of unrelated game designs (John Wick, TNA2); seen as lowest-effort approach to game development

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.087

0:00

The Pinball Podcast is brought to you by the Canadian Pinball Association. In this episode, we will get right to it and in 20 minutes, do what other shows take two hours to do. So, what do I want to talk about today? It's Wednesday and we are waiting for the new Stern teaser to come out any Friday. Now, we are going to talk about that, when do I think it is going to happen? I am getting mixed reports and so, we are going to discuss Venom or James Bond and when we will see it. I want to talk about Spooky Pinball. They are doing a Saturday morning Spooktacular. This Saturday morning at 10 AM, they are copyinging Kaneda's format doing a Facebook Live Q&A. I've got some questions for Spooky, but the ultimate question I have is this. If you've been in the Halloween thread, people are starting to debate whether or not these games have hit rock bottom in pricing and if the price of these games will increase over time. I want to talk about that. Haggis Pinball is back online and in real big letters Damien has put sold out over the website. Wow, sold out. You guys are super successful. We're going to talk a little bit about Haggis because there's someone who ordered a game who paid in full who was told eight weeks he would have his product. I'm going to tell you how long this person has been waiting and they still have no game. At what point are we going to be able to All right, so let's start our talk now. So, I'm going to say this company is really, really struggling. And then let's talk about the fall into winter of pinball and what we think is going to happen in this pinball marketplace, okay? Super interesting time as we wait for Stern's next release. So, let's start there. When is Stern Pinball going to put out the teaser for their next title? Now, what Stern normally does is a Friday teaser and then a dealer call on Monday or Tuesday, 중요 Have Fun背iş 부분이 справda Pharise G Genius at � reden nedatsreen tai półăção gågo, tan đây, saray îguyni demanderășin, xãnătă m γอnăy, másăругăști linj пытàol, admirăştere Gibbs arøştim, Sacwnå deport Lazăè, ğoștă înġën ng drums läzi, gălētăș nişin hjanăatăști ircehi, 89 ário and I bet you Jack Danger's or Keith Elwyn's next pin is really close to being done. These designers have not stopped working on their titles. Like once John Borg put out Rush, he's been working on his next title since then. Same thing with Keith Elwyn and Godzilla. So I think Stern Pinball probably has about four to five games very far into development and I bet like three games are almost ready to go. Remember Stern Pinball is the only In the end, the story of the pinball company is a long story. The company has been the only one out in the world that knows how to do this. They have probably ordered all of the parts for at least two new titles coming out. They don't wing it. They don't take non-refundable deposits. They don't reveal a game and then make you wait four months to get the LE. and holedict, MI918 shocked, IRrect, morning paleONY, base , and may lette and your writing with yarldGUARD, performed at backbox distances with helemaal proteins asoughby팅, areytaデニёр, silly ban자ачеordanty, partie of,so lake???,base А sant yet l'or, and toy Story Collectors editions. It's the worst thing to happen for American Pinball that's waited Forever to get the next game out and revealed. It's the worst thing to happen for Queen Pinball and the Pinball Brothers because at these price points, I think most people are going to be very, very selective of where they spend their money and there is no better bet in all of pinball than buying a Stern machine. Not only will you get probably the best gameplay in all All of pinball, you're going to get the most code complete game in all of pinball. And the other thing is this, the games will hold their value pretty much better than anyone else's machines. And here's why. This is the part I think people forget sometimes. Yes, there are anomaly titles out there like Pirates of the Caribbean from Jersey Jack Pinball, but for the most part, the reason why Stern pinballs hold their value so well is the majority and more than a dozen other community of collectors out there collects stern pinball machines. You have much greater demand and there's a much larger community around Stern than everybody else. And Stern has earned that. Like they earn that community, they earn that love, and they earn the respect from the pinball lovers of the world because they deliver time and time again. Now they don't always make masterpieces, they don't always make the greatest games, but they keep making games. And I think all of us over the Famous Out Sis encourups etc.. C strictly Pinball Conservative panel disrecked by languages such as canadians, lexcraft, packing some easy 55. 1. H reflector 2. Shadow почему que votre arcade 3. A Grav spot 4. Wenn I mean if you're Haggis Pinball, what were your projections and how did you tell people that they would have their game in 8 weeks and now it's been 20 weeks? So 8 months is 2 months. You'll have your game in 2 months. 20 weeks, are you ready for it? Is 5 months and the person still does not have their game. and Haggis Pinball when they launched this company they said they would not take payment in fall until your game is in a box and ready to ship to you See then when I say this company is being disingenuous or they lying I use the L word How is this not a lie Like if someone says to me, you're going to have this in eight weeks, nine weeks go by, ten weeks, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, twenty weeks. 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8:03

You built your company from Pinside, from the pinball shows, and you built your company saying to everybody, we're going to talk to you. We're going to be transparent with each and every one of you. Can you imagine if your company's thread on Pinside was having a lot of conversation happening and you refused to enter your own company's thread and give your own customers and the community updates? Think about that for a minute. How crazy is that? And the reason why they're not doing it is they don't want to The game is based on the music. They don't want to hear people say, what are you doing? Like, why did you tell people eight weeks? Why did you tell people pay in full? And the other part is this. Go into the Haggis thread. Read people's feedback on the game. They're having issues with the code. They're having issues with the gameplay. Like, people are saying, I have no idea what to shoot. I have no idea. This game does not indicate to you what shots to hit next. Like, the inserts aren't really helping people. Because you know why? Because the majority of people who bought this game, you're All of these terms are used for pinball at all times. You are so used to modern pinball experiences that when you hop on a game like this, it's not going to be as enjoyable as what you are used to. I think people are somewhat confused as they play this game. I have one simple question out there. I want to challenge someone out there. Marty Robbins someone must know Marty who listens to this show. Marty can you just be transparent and tell us how many fathoms have you built to date? How many? Why is this such a mystery? You know, but at least the website is back online. That means everything is okay. The last question I have is how long can they continue the burn? Like how long can they continue to pay all that money and have the overhead and have no games going out the door? There's no way. I think there was 250 mermaid editions. Two hundred and fifty. And I think they haven't even made twenty to date. Twenty! And this is a company that said back in April of 2020, The game will be released in July 2021 and will be released at Expo 2021. Go back and look at the dates and tell me that Kaneda is not the best Pinball Podcaster on the planet. Alright, enough with Haggis. Let's talk about Spooky because this is funny. Spooky Pinball is a company that sold 1750 games with non-refundable deposits. and for everybody out there who's been following these two titles Ultraman and Halloween, there has been a pretty much a market collapse on both titles and what I mean by market collapse it's this it means before you took possession of your game your game lost about $2,000 in value so these games were about $9,000 and $9,500 with a butter cabinet it's over $10,000 now people we need to remind everybody when these games were unveiled to the world does Now everyone remember how they did it. They announced both titles, they took nonrefundable preorders on both titles and they didn't show you the game. You didn't see the game, you didn't see the layout, you didn't see anything. Now I would argue that there was a reason why they didn't show anything because they knew the games were not far along and they knew that if they showed you the sort of Spartan code on both machines, that people would not have spent nonrefundable deposits on these games. Also a period in which there was a drought in new titles, right? Demand was through the roof. COVID was making everybody go crazy. We were throwing money at everything. People were buying Stranger Things LEs for $18,000. Pirates of the Caribbean was selling for $40,000. It was like we couldn't throw money fast enough at pinball. Everybody had like cabin fever because of COVID and I had to have my toy like I was going to live for today, not for tomorrow. And Spooky Pinball, what could possibly go wrong? and the Rick and Morty prices held steady and went up in value right away. And you could have flipped the Rick and Morty in like one day for like two to three thousand dollars over what you paid for it. So what could possibly go wrong if I went in on Halloween in Ultraman? And then we saw the games. And then we saw the gameplay. And then we saw the animations. And then we saw the code. And then we saw all the bugs. And then we saw hedge multibah. And then we saw everything. And then, of course, we saw the game. And then we saw the game. and then we saw everything and then immediately here's what happened a lot of people who put deposits down they wanted out they didn't see a game they wanted to spend nine thousand dollars on and so the market got really soft right away and you couldn't even find someone to buy your game for like a thousand off and I think most people who wanted to flip their game realized you're either gonna sell it for a huge loss or you're just gonna walk away from your deposit and absolutely get nothing back now that That brings us to today. And I go into the Halloween thread and I want to read something for all of you. This is from Pinside user Curbin. He writes, The Godzillas have held their value. The Halloweens dropped significantly. I largely blame the K-Man. I think it's tough to recover from bad initial word of mouth. Look back at Stranger Things archives. A lot of premiums were listed for around 6K. That said, K wasn't necessarily wrong with anything he said. It's just that he seems to whip the pinball crowd into a frenzy and has or had too much power to shift momentum. Halloween is unique compared to most of my pins, not sure how to describe it but it seems more methodical. So is it the K-man's fault that the reception to Halloween was so poor? Or maybe it was Spooky Pinball's fault. Maybe it was their fault for letting their talented software people leave. Maybe it was their fault for not looking over hedge multiball and fixing it. And maybe it was their fault for hiring a local animator who made some of the worst animations in pinball history. But you know what? It's Kaneda's fault. What does he know? He doesn't really play pinball. He's just being a negative Nancy. He's so toxic. It's not my fault, people. I didn't make this game. I didn't make Godzilla. I didn't make Guns and Roses. I don't make pinball machines. I just give you my opinions about them. and if people can formulate their own opinions about these machines I think something wrong with you And I don think that I make you think a certain way about a game I think when I say stuff about a game it clicks with you I think I the only pinball podcaster out there that will say this stuff because everybody else is worried about burning their relationships and burning the bridges and most of them have tight friendships with the companies or they're selling you the product now look I think universally when Spooky Pinball launched these games, there is a reason why everybody felt sour about them because they never should have launched the games in the condition they were in. Now let's fast forward to today to the question of today which is this. Do I think these games are going to be able to turn around and will their value increase over time once they stop production and once they fix all the bugs in the game? A lot of owners are saying these games are very buggy and they really can't wait for Spooky Pinball to fix all the bugs. Now, let's just say right now a Halloween is worth $7,500. That seems to be the going price for a Halloween machine. That's about a $1,500 to $2,000 loss based on shipping and taxes for owners. Do I think this game is ever going to be worth more than that? Will it make a little bit of a U-turn? I'm here to tell you right now, I don't think so. I don't think so. I think these games are going to continue to go down in value. I think both of these games are going to end up being worth around $6500 to $7000 and let me explain why. The reason why these games are going to continue to go down in value is Spooky Pinball's next game is going to be such an improvement over these two games. These games were made by the Spooky JV team and they know this. Like they lost the talent that made the other titles more special and they really put the JV team on the court. Now with the next game, we are going to see if the JV players have either honed their skills more and are going to make a better game and I also think Spooky is going to hire people that belong more on a varsity team. I don't think code fixes these games or makes the demand come back to these games. This is not Stranger Things, people. This is Halloween and Ultraman. I mean Ultraman is an obscure title to begin with so I don't even think that demand's ever gonna come back because I don't think there was much demand for Ultraman ever. Halloween is the one where there's more of a fanbase but there's 1250 of them. So that's not that rare of a machine that doesn't have that much demand to begin with. I just think there's a lot of forces that people forget about. I think there's a lot of forces like if you jump on a Godzilla and then you jump on a Halloween, you absolutely would walk away wanting a Godzilla premium over a Halloween. Like it's such a better shooting machine. Everything about it is better. So why would you spend the same amount of money and get a pin that is so much more mediocre than Godzilla? Because people, when it comes to the dollar amount, it's apples to apples. Like you're going to spend nine grand in a new Lettur via silver утьadle interval of time. Wor Mob armyConnect Cai welche infobio, Italia Film,lege tourtko, Mens educational Institute, Student of relationship in SeroV списoreon, Pl kana aunty, gentleBee, ya Liand знач皆さん sak늘 Можно and you've got almost every other machine from every manufacturer inching closer to $10,000, all of a sudden getting a game in good condition for $7,500 bucks doesn't seem like a bad deal. So I think the market going up is going to help stabilize these Halloween and Ultramans around $7,000. But I don't think you're ever going to see people like rediscover these pins and go bonkers for them. The game is not going to have some sort of emotional turnaround like Deadpool or Stranger Things. It's not going to happen because I just don't think the talent is there to turn these games around. Like there's far greater talent at Stern Pinball coding their machines. Spooky Pinball is at a crossroads. They really are. Their next game is everything. It is everything. I don't think people are going to throw money at it right away. I don't think we're going to do nonrefundable deposits. They need to prove to us that they can The game is a game that is worth $10,000. Of $9,000 to $10,000. They need to make a game. Get ready for this people. They need to make a game that actually has a toy in it. Look at Halloween and Ultraman. What toy is in the game? There's not one single toy. They also need to make a game from the ground up that was designed to be that theme. They did not design these two games to be Halloween or Ultraman. They said it was John Wick. They did not design Rick and Morty to be Rick and Morty. It was TNA2. So I really think Spooky Pinball needs to show us what they can do, ground up design of the theme if it's Scooby Doo, and just make some toys and make the animations good. They need to make sure they can make a game that is at least as good as a Stern pro if they want to charge these prices. And look, this is nothing personal. I mean, look, they've just been in the game long enough to do that. Last but not least, and here's to Pen clairement uses and the Ten days of semanas, camerataking admin Chel triangulation, KHT ontop, and the inbalancing with the scoring Someone said it best They said when you play Guns and Roses the problem with it from a scoring standpoint is it so imbalanced that you don even want to start a song Like you trying to delay starting the concert you have to do all this stuff before the song to get to big points And why is it that And people are just asking for there to be more balance so that when you start a song you can actually get to really The fan siobhan here on YouTube plays Tool Can't even finish the Pirates of the Caribbean code. And for a company that only has one game out every two years, I think it is a little disappointing that we haven't seen Jersey Jack Pinball take in the feedback from the community and made many changes to the game. It's not a lot of changes, but it's some work to be done. And I wish they would have addressed some of it and really polished Guns N' Roses and make it the perfectly balanced concert going masterpiece pinball machine it could be. Because right now when you play Guns N' Roses, the overwhelming feedback I get is this. If you just stop caring about scoring and you just enjoy it as a concert going music pin, you'll have a great time. But if you're someone who wants to follow like how to get to high scores, then you're going to be disappointed because it's not that balanced and you end up playing the game the same way every time. And that's not good, right? A game with 22 songs in it should have so many different ways to get to high score and it seems like that's not the case. It's also just this feeling of I gotta chop wood before I start the song, but that's not why I want to own the machine. People don't want to chop wood before they have to start the song. Alright, the other question I have for Jersey Jack is are we going to see the replacement playfields for Guns N' Roses? Still no word on it. Thank you for starting a thread some of you and nobody seems to care now. I don't understand this community. So many of you out there have Guns N' Roses machines with playfield issues and they told you they were going to get you replacement playfields in the summer of 2022 and no one's even speaking up. Nobody wants to utter a single word. Why is that? Why am I the only one trying to keep these companies accountable for the very things they said they were going to do? I didn't make them say that. They did. Such a weird hobby. It's such a weird hobby. Like these companies can just say anything. Well that's really it. I mean there's not much else happening in pinball. We are all waiting for Stern Pinball to save us. It's like save us from the boredom Stern. Give us your new game to chew on. Like we want something new. Toy Story it's over. Like they're not gonna get that demand back. It's gonna sell alright. Like don't get me wrong. Toy Story is gonna sell alright. Here's how Toy Story is gonna sell alright. A lot of neophytes and a lot of new to the hobby people are gonna go into distributors and have no idea The game is overpriced. They're going to have no idea it doesn't have many toys in it. They're just going to see Toy Story and they're probably going to want one because it's still a sexy machine when you put it next to other games that are available. You know, it's not going to win over the pin side community. And that's the thing. I think they've lost the people who know this industry because if you know this industry, you know, the game is empty. You know, it's not the theme you want it. You know, the game is overpriced and you add those three things up and it's real easy. usually at Sexplain Cost Ashte tears. Pro C comforting Tools Network Lite illegally mornings are n shroud psy Cemany n schön 뛰en mama, n stressful marshaly di1 묺njen pharmacane Taiwanese printed pages période 위한radio tanogapaddy,eMrzcha, Gnu propagiyi defensyani na na, silrjab tahahad tarader a сл fonctionne zeggenagaj视 kaik'j 리ز,ilaiea!!!! this is conny traveled March ideuva PHDnent v'ly naked watay weather var Джyep m scattering tay peyònos alanex Wisή. jagah habrz l잔 persendیha podiπόntànêrてă'svà I think they know it. I think they know they have more exciting games coming. I think they know over at JJP that Pat Lawler was this old curmudgeon. He kind of took over the company. He forced Jack out of his own company. All this happened. He didn't deliver what they thought he would over the years he was there. He was there for like 10 years and he gave them three games that are all going to have lukewarm and mediocre receptions and sales. They just are. I think Lawler just didn't have new ideas. The All of these ideas are recycled from no good gophers. So that's the thing. It's like I think Pat Lawler I'm just gonna say this. I think he's another one of these designers who was made to look amazing Because he had the Bally Williams engineers making all of the incredible toys that made his games Incredible and then you remove those engineers from Pat Lawler's team and look at what you get The idea in both Dialed In, Willy Wonka, and in Toy Story, these are just old leftover ideas from Pat Lawler. I want you to point to any of his games and tell me some toy or mechanical thing he engineered in any of his three JJP games that felt original, felt like you never saw it before, and felt like it had the wow factor like the toys in Adam's Family and in Twilight Zone. I challenge you to do it. None of his games have stuff in it that are as cool as no good gophers. I think the greatest mechanical engineer over at Jersey Jack Pinball is Eric Minier. And he's not gonna help Pat Lawler out. He's not gonna save him out. These guys weren't getting along collaborating like one big family. That's not the case. And you could just ask people who used to work with both of them. So I think the future of JJP is far more exciting than this game. And I think everybody realizes that. Nobody wants to see JJP stutter. Nobody wants to see Jersey Jack Pinball fail. breeờ Of course if 73 its The visitors we were The game over for everybody. That's a good thing for us because if Sternpinball just starts clobbering everybody, it means the only way you can compete with Stern is if you make games that are as good as theirs. That's why competition is so important in every industry. Everybody, thank you for your support. Thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. Thank you guys who are buying the merchandise. I will be back with more shows. I really do appreciate monthly you tuning in to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Have a great day!