Episode 1124: "Are Pinball Brothers Making PREDATOR or TRUE LIES?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·30m 4s·analyzed·Aug 15, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda accuses Pinball Brothers of deceptive Predator marketing amid supply issues and questions long-term viability.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Pinball Brothers' messaging around Predator, alleging the company is using calculated marketing deception and manufactured FOMO to drive sales despite limited actual demand. He criticizes their supply chain issues, contradictory statements about production numbers, tariff-absorption strategy that undercuts distributors, and the absence of Arnold Schwarzenegger as a critical flaw. He also addresses broader industry trends around pricing, licensing, Star Wars hype, and the survival pressures facing European boutique manufacturers in the US market.

Key Claims

Pinball Brothers initially said they would make 800 Predators but only ordered parts for 300 games in the first batch
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing rumor/industry intelligence; explicitly states 'I don't have a hundred percent confirmation on this, but this is what I heard'
Predator currently costs $11,995 after tariffs are covered by Pinball Brothers; the base game without Arnold is approximately $12,000
high confidence · Kaneda, citing Pinball Brothers' distributor statement and direct pricing
Pinball Brothers is absorbing tariffs and international shipping costs only for direct orders, undercutting their dealers and distributors
high confidence · Kaneda, analyzing Pinball Brothers' official statement 'We will cover the tariffs and the international shipping to Dubois, Pennsylvania'
Pinball Brothers stated they will only sell Alien and Predator until end of 2025, citing license restructuring
high confidence · Kaneda, reading from Pinball Brothers' official distributor communication
Stern's King Kong took approximately three weeks to sell one unit new-in-box at $10,400
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing market observation; implies poor sales velocity
Spooky is positioned to dominate US sales because they manufacture domestically and avoid tariff exposure
medium confidence · Kaneda, comparative analysis; notes Spooky plans to sell 888 Beetlejuices in America alone without overseas distribution needs
Pinball Brothers is in 'desperation mode' and their survival depends on generating excitement for future titles rather than current sales
medium confidence · Kaneda, interpretation of company behavior and messaging patterns
Without Arnold Schwarzenegger, Predator pinball will tank in secondary market value post-launch
low confidence · Kaneda, prediction/opinion; states 'your game is going to tank in value right away'

Notable Quotes

“They're making True Lies, people. This is True Lies because when they say demand is high... What did they say? They said they were making 800 predators.”
Kaneda @ ~20:45 — Core thesis: Pinball Brothers is being deceptive about production numbers and demand; uses 'True Lies' as metaphor for deception
“I heard they ordered parts for three hundred games for the first batch... I bet they were thinking this: Let's leak this, show people what the potential might be if we get Arnold... so that way they will order it.”
Kaneda @ ~22:30 — Claims Pinball Brothers strategically withheld Arnold info to drive pre-orders, using bait-and-switch marketing
“The game is like $15,000 to your door. But even without the tariffs, it's a $12,000 game without Arnold. It's not like it's loaded with mechanical magic. And so they just shouldn't have made it.”
Kaneda @ ~35:40 — Asserts Predator lacks mechanical innovation to justify its price point without the major IP draw of Arnold
“There's not enough people locally to justify being an American pinball manufacturer. The main pinball market in the world is America. And so... these European companies, they're gonna die if they don't get US sales.”
Kaneda @ ~42:00 — Identifies structural vulnerability of European-based boutique manufacturers; explains tariff strategy as survival tactic
“If they had done a survey months ago... 'Would you buy a Predator pinball machine that did not feature Arnold?' they would have got back... a 98% response: no.”
Kaneda @ ~48:30 — Critiques Pinball Brothers' market research; implies absence of Arnold was knowable, preventable decision
“Having Arnold in it is a non-negotiable. Everybody... I'm trying, man. I have a good heart.”
Kaneda @ ~50:00 — Final pitch on licensing requirements; shifts to personal defense against 'toxic' label criticism
“Spooky doesn't have to deal with tariffs. Like, Spooky's in the driver's seat now because they don't have tariffs.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Pinball BrotherscompanyStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBarrels of Funcompany American Pinballcompany

Signals

?
machine_intel: Pinball Brothers claims to be 'now building the first games of Predator' with parts stuck in customs, stating they will ship 'this month' (August 2025). Kaneda disputes timeline credibility and alleges parts shortage contradicts assembly-line feasibility.
high · Pinball Brothers distributor statement quoted: 'We are now building the first games of Predator. We are waiting for the last arcade parts that unfortunately are stuck in customs at the moment.'
?
product_concern: Predator pinball lacks Arnold Schwarzenegger, the primary IP draw; Kaneda argues this is a non-negotiable element and that the game lacks sufficient mechanical innovation to justify its $12,000+ price point without the actor.
high · Kaneda: 'The game is like $15,000 to your door. But even without the tariffs, it's a $12,000 game without Arnold. It's not like it's loaded with mechanical magic. And so they just shouldn't have made it.'
$
market_signal: Kaneda predicts Predator's secondary market value will collapse post-launch due to perceived lack of genuine demand and upcoming competing titles (Star Wars, Harry Potter). Anticipates rapid depreciation.
medium · Kaneda: 'If you buy one, your game is going to tank in value right away because if there's not even 300 people who want the game now, there's going to be even less than 300 people that want it after Star Wars, after they get their Harry Potter.'
?
business_signal: Pinball Brothers' decision to absorb tariffs and shipping only for direct orders creates channel conflict, undercutting dealers and distributors. Kaneda criticizes this survival tactic as unsustainable.
high · Kaneda: 'So now they're screwing over all their dealers and distros. Anyone who sells Pinball Brothers products, they are now selling against you.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.090

0:00

You wanna know why? Cuz I'm a liar! Yeah, I'm a liar! I'll tear your mind out! I'll burn your soul! Sidder, sidder, sidder, sidder, sidder, sidder, sidder! Welcome everybody to Canadian Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcast headquartered now in Dubois, Pennsylvania. Look, if you don't have a pinball operation happening in Dubois, Pennsylvania, do you even have a pinball company? We're gonna talk about the Pinball Brothers! Did these dudes make Predator? Or did they make True Lies? They're starting to say stuff that just ain't adding up and you know me, I'm not the other pinball content creators who say everything is awesome given every game at B+. Tablo sarc finder Buffalo Ahíменxy Dat sc который я в softly rodzин Ices в 2 жилиером, Майгрес62 Катahi mundial Кати 2 ж microbi VKю Vkr This is just pure, under the surface, coffee fueled, Canadian talent. We're gonna talk about the pinball brothers. We're gonna talk about Stern Pinball. Now we'd love to sell you a power supply that will fix the loud fan in all of those Stern games. So now you've gotta spend more money to change something that should have been the right part in the first place. Don't you love it when companies do this? Starring Patty Donald underside in Remember me inside Pukeepin Personally, сколько si un negocio de misti in trance TiZitnera e a我覺得, C All for Zi chido y no te quiero troaya e ты Dziche quilton,187へ8 ,t'eig'io existeいた , ,lolisn'to crew 4a diciendo Tametão 147eh3. Otro castingcz Intencionalby 해 나endedata,B 2008, inviteincie a recent ac familiarityfaith, consultationértaka d'指 Crullata generale da amistä여 difficultya de uno en tráchare Já não dê esse prometido para 가져ar aos alheart такимas evidenteis cent millimeter io boiado do So fishes, The Wires are hanging Down It's almost like George and Seth were like what are we gonna do nobody wants King Kong All of our efforts to take these arcade one-up content creators to help us hype King Kong Have failed and you know the reason why none of us will ever really truly respect Arcade one-up content creators you know the reason why and you know the reason why is simply this This, because anyone who was really into arcades as a kid, none of us who knew what arcades were all about would ever in a million years buy an arcade one-up. We wouldn't collect them. We wouldn't build a community around these freaking fake little mini versions of what як p tavka Yeah, only a fool would buy and collect arcade one-up games. And so they all got made fun of and now none of them want to buy them anymore because when you say you bought one, it's like buying a haggis game or a home pin game. And so yeah, don't march into our pinball space. Take the Stern dollars, become Stern shills and then tell us that you're now the voice of pinball. You gotta earn it back. And the only way you're gonna earn it back is if you call Current station being promotedät the I think they finally sold that new in a box game for $10,400. Think about that for a minute. It took a dude like three weeks to sell a Kong in a box for $10,400. So what do you think your opened game is worth now that you've beat on it? I don't know, $9,500? What do you think it's going to be worth after Star Wars? What do you think it's going to be worth after like Pokemon? You know what I'm saying? It's like, and here's the thing. Stern's about to increase their prices and it's going to work for Star Wars and we're going to get to pinball brothers. We're going to talk all about the pinball brothers and Dubois, Pennsylvania, which is all of a sudden the hottest place to be in pinball. I feel like I'm hyped. If you're listening to this on the podcast only, you're missing the Facebook live happening right now. You can see how I get more performative when I'm looking at myself. I actually like doing it this way because I almost feel like I don't need to edit. You haven't even made a real mistake yet. You're like, Canadian, you made the mistake. You've now triggered all of these arcade one-up guys who say they're the voice of pinball and then you ask for their forgiveness. Look, it's just this simple. The easiest thing to do is just tell the truth. Tell the truth about how you feel about a game and every game can't be awesome. Because if you say that, it's not interesting and we're never going to get to better product. And I think it's hard for the newbies. I do because I think they came into the hobby. Prices were high. They were born. They were like bored. See, I made a few mistakes. I'm going to keep the mistakes in here. They were just bored during COVID and I get it. We all were. We were all looking at the world like what's going on, everything shutting down, people are dying, I'm spending most of my time at home, I'm not going on vacations, I'm not eating out, so I've got all this extra money. And then all of a sudden, the jackass that bought a Stranger Things LE for $8500, all of a sudden that jackass listed his game for sale for $19,000. And look, So it would have been okay if it stopped there but here the problem Another jackass bought the game for and then all the other Stranger Things owners felt they also had a game that was now worth And so we went through this three period of any man who had any sort of means and money that wasn spending it on normal grown adult purchases started to look at pinball like this is the best place to put my money. I'm going to have so much fun and these things are never going to go down in value. Go look at the people who bought Snoopy omega watches during COVID. You think pinball's bad? People were spending $35,000 on an unlimited run of a watch that retails for like 16. Okay, so it's not just us. So here we are. It's 2025. It's August. And I'm here to tell you right now, I think a few things are about to happen. I think the pinball brothers are going down a road that we've This is the first time I have seen a video of a game like this, and I think you have to read between the lines. And again, when a company makes a statement like they just made, and makes a marketing move like they just made, you can't just look at it in isolation. You have to look at it outside of the statement. You have to remember what they said about this game when it was launched. You have to remember how many they said they were going to make. And then you need to remember that. Don't be like these short-term revisionist history shills who are just like, oh cool, great, yeah, they only have 150 left. No, that is not accurate. We're going to talk about that. And then we're going to talk about the fact that now all of a sudden they're going to waive tariffs, which is kind of now throwing a light on Dutch pinball because everyone's like, well, what about us? How come you're not paying for tariffs like Melvin and Barry? Why do we have to pay for tariffs? I say we just ship every single pinball machine in 2025. I don't care if it's coming from the Netherlands, I don't care if it's coming from freaking the Pinball Brothers in Italy or the UK, wherever the heck they're making that game. I don't care if it's coming from Stern, I don't care if it's coming from Texas. Every single pinball machine that leaves a factory in 2025 I should go through the boy Pennsylvania. We should make this place this like whatever this little mailbox sort of shipping container thing they have. We should make the boy Pennsylvania the capital of pinball in 2025. I've already changed my headquarters from rowade in Connecticut to the boy Pennsylvania official today. All right, so let's go into this for a minute because. Then we'll get to like Star Wars and people want to know, you know, what I think the next Star Wars is going to be and how it's going to impact the 2017 prices. Do you really need me to tell you that a brand new Star Wars game that is not a turd like the and I know that's like really mean, but come on, like the Richie game is a joke. of Garth Davis's I feel like I've got a lot of aversion and I don't know vitriol around that game. Yeah, because I love Star Wars. And when I see that game, it makes me feel like Steve Ritchie never even watched a damn Star Wars movie. All right? All right. Shut your mouth about Star Wars, Ken. You don't know what you're talking about. I'm talking back to people on Facebook right now. Star Wars is terrible. The way Dwight coded it, stacking scenes from different movies. That is the most idiotic way to code a sci-fi story that is the most famous sci-fi story of all time. I want to feel like Luke going on the journey and I want to feel the moments of those films. I don't want to stack a scene from A New Hope with a scene from Empire Strikes Back to get a multiplier on a Tie Fighter on a spring when I'm just slamming the damn lockdown bar button to like blow up Tie Fighters. It's all wrong, all right? Translate, you're wrong. I'm not wrong, Ken. And guess what? You're a Star Wars about to lose 40% in value in two weeks. So call me up when you sell your Ali for $8,000. Am I on fire, people? All right, let's talk about The Pinball Brothers. I'm not even going to edit this show. If you're going to hear this podcast, this is just Kaneda unedited. Let's do it. All right, so here's the deal. I want to read what the Pinball Brothers wrote to their distributors. They wrote, we are now building the first games of Predator. We are waiting for the last parts that unfortunately are stuck in customs at the moment. So right there, we know as a community that you can't start building a game I'm not going to be a fan of the game until every part is in the factory. So when they say they're starting to build the game and then the next sentence is, we don't even have all the parts. I don't even know why I do this podcast anymore. Like what is with these companies? Who would ever say this? Like we know every part needs to be in house. It's an assembly line. A game should be made in a day. You don't want to just build a few things. Hey, let's just put in a few posts and then wait two weeks to get the damn like have a trail or the ramps. It's not how you build pinball. Alright, then they go on to say, But we believe the parts will be released very soon and we will start shipping this month. Alright, lies! Like, what does that mean? It is August 15th, they do not even have all the parts to finish a game. They believe the parts will be in very soon and they're gonna get games. Text the old playlist is boasting in make I heard, I used fart straight off You know, your kids might hear me and be like, Dad, what's this guy so upset about? Like he's screaming about pinball. Like, is he okay? Is he getting like action from his wife? Like, are his kids beautiful? Does he live in a great house? Does he drive a Dodge Damon, Dad? What's with this guy? All right. He goes on to say the following. The demand is high for predator. And we just want to inform you that we got approximately 150 games left to sell. We Also want to inform you that we will only sell this game until the end of the year We have restructured our license agreements and need to make space for our new titles This means that we cannot sell Alien and Predator after year end. If you want to secure any of these two titles, now is the time to act. I'm going to stay on this paragraph. I am not gonna let them say this stuff and just get away with it. This is not alien. This is not predator. They're making true lies, people. This is true lies because when they say demand is high, I want everybody to remember what they said when they announced this game. What did they say? They said they were making 800 predators. They said that is how many they were gonna make and then they were gonna go from there. So when they say that demand has been really high and there are only a hundred and fifty spots left, that is them implying if you remember everything, and again don't like turn off the past, don't call me toxic, I actually like to think and remember and draw conclusions based upon what these companies say. So that means you think they've sold 650 predators? Do you really think that's what's happened? No, it's anything but that. What people know and what I've heard and again, I don't have a hundred percent confirmation on this, but this is what I heard is the rumor. I'll call it that, but I heard they ordered parts for three hundred games for the first batch. So the first batch was three hundred because remember, Pinball Brothers can't make a thousand games in six months or eight hundred games Pass야э Can allorp restrict the use of paintbrush, uh, so you can paint your face with water, I should s Predator or True Lies?

18:19

Catch upahlen 19 Page leg Ifもう이Aut Schools I love you The 분 Terima kasih Welcome to the on the moon Driver I would like to know because to me that was calculated deception to get people to order the game and they thought they were pulling a fast one and the reason why I think it was calculated deception is I bet they were thinking this. Alright, look, we have Alien. That game when it came out did not feature the main character Sigourney Weaver and Ripley. We know that everybody knows that. We know that eventually we got the rights to Ripley and then we put her in the Alien game. So let's do this. Let's leak this, show people what the potential might be if we get Arnold and so that way they will order Guard it and think that predator Percy iceberg Mult colonialism Carrie Welby will have the same type of journeymayı blind optimismactor Steve Sanders Simors due? I'm a little bit tired of all the people unwilling to just like let it go. Now you don't want to let it go, this is what you get. You know there's only so many times Canadians can extend the olive branch, then you're gonna get it, then you're gonna get it. If you don't want to be friends and you think you're too good, then just like shake hands and fine, then take it this way. But my point is this, this whole thing about like you gotta get your game now, trying to manufacture this FOMO. It's a lie. There's no FOMO. There's no demand for this game. They didn't sell close to 800 units. And if you buy one, your game is going to like tank in value right away because if there's not even 300 people who want the game now, there's going to be even less than 300 people that want it after Star Wars, after they get their Harry Potter, after they see what's next from JJP, after all this stuff happening. And so, look, these guys are in desperation mode, so desperate that they'll pay your tariffs. I mean I've never seen anything like it so look at this. They then put out a statement, we eat the bullets and save the crew. Who's the crew? I mean I don't even know what it says. So we will cover the tariffs and the international shipping to Dubois, Pennsylvania. So wow, but only if you order through them. See did you notice that? So now they're screwing over all their dealers and distros. Anyone who sells Pinball Brothers products, they are now selling against you. The game is $11,995 after the tariffs have been paid. Why is this game when Alien with Ripley in it is like or I don understand Alien has everything in it and is so much cheaper than Predator And they say the U tariffs on Europe goods are finally set The bad news costs are up The good news, we're absolutely as much as possibly can covering the tariffs and the increased international shipping costs. So you don't have to. All right, cool. Go out of business doing this. I mean, I don't know how you do this. Getting our games to our U.S. friends is our top priority. And we want them to land on U.S. soil at the most attractive price possible. Starting pentagonal, starting now, we're offering the Predator Pinball direct from Pinball Brothers with international shipping and taxes included. No surprises, no extra fees, just pulse-pounding jungle Chaos ready for your game room. Now, look, I know I've been sort of going off on these guys and these statements. I know they're trying to like I know what they're trying to do. They're trying to survive. You know, I want to play a little bit of devil's advocate. I understand they're trying to survive. And I know it's easy for me to put on a podcast microphone and fly off the handle and do these dramatic shows. And I just want to say what's unfortunate about all of this is survival for a pinball company. I told this to Andrew Highway. I'll tell this to everybody out there. Every decision you make as your pinball company is in your hands. The game is like $15,000 to your door. But even without the tariffs, it's a $12,000 game without Arnold. It's not like it's loaded with mechanical magic. And so they just shouldn't have made it. And now they know that. That's why they're putting out this statement. They've got to get past it. They realize that the risk did not pay off. And when they say stuff like, we're only going to make these games to the end of the year because we want to move on to our other titles. Where have we heard that before? We Terms are the same for all pinball companies that find themselves in dire straits. The only way for their egos to recover is to say stuff like they've got so many more games coming. We've heard it from Damien, from Robert Mueller, from John Papadiuk, from Andrew Highway. This is how these guys have to think. It's all about survival. The only way to survive is to get people excited about the next thing if the current thing isn't working But the problem is in the space of boutique pinball. There's no room for failure