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Episode 1035: "Have We Lost That NIB Stern Loving Feeling?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 9s·analyzed·Dec 16, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Stern pinball market faces collapse amid greed, oversaturation, and loss of consumer confidence in NIB games.

Summary

Chris from Kaneda's Pinball Podcast delivers a scathing critique of the pinball market's trajectory, arguing that excessive pricing ($13,000+ for LEs), oversaturation, and poor game design have destroyed the NIB (new in box) market's appeal. He contends Stern's next cornerstone game (potentially King Kong or D&D, arriving at CES in ~3 weeks) must be a masterpiece to reverse declining enthusiasm, and calls out manufacturers for greed, lack of innovation, and failure to listen to consumers. He predicts market collapse when stockpiled inventory floods the secondary market.

Key Claims

  • New in box Foo Fighters LE machines are selling for less than $10,000, representing significant losses for early buyers

    high confidence · Chris observes real secondary market data he's witnessing; specific price point mentioned

  • Stern has doubled LE production volume while raising prices significantly, with most new Stern LEs starting at $13,000

    high confidence · Chris explains Stern's strategy shift from 500 to 1,000 LE units per game; corroborates with dealer impact discussion

  • Seth Davis confirmed that Stern's next two titles will feature significantly increased creativity

    medium confidence · Chris states he spoke to Seth Davis; claims conversation was mostly off-record but quotes this specific assertion

  • Avatar CE has poor theme integration and lacks memorable 'wow' modes despite claims of 20+ modes

    medium confidence · Chris expresses personal opinion based on gameplay experience but challenges community consensus; invites others to explain the modes

  • Jersey Jack's next two games are Harry Potter and Matrix, both coming at $15,000+ prices

    medium confidence · Chris states this as near-certain prediction based on market trajectory; not officially confirmed

  • Spooky Pinball's Evil Dead has only sold ~700 of 888 units produced, indicating weak demand

    medium confidence · Chris estimates based on market observation; not officially confirmed by Spooky

  • Stern's customer base has historically been distributors and operators, not home collectors, creating misalignment in current strategy

    high confidence · Chris cites conversation with Seth Davis explaining Stern's 40-year business model shift

  • Thousands of new pinball machines are stockpiled in warehouses without demand, hidden from public view

    medium confidence · Chris makes environmental metaphor comparison; based on general market observation rather than specific data

Notable Quotes

  • “I'm no longer buying new in box... Everybody's tired of this. It's running out of steam, right?”

    Chris (Host)@ 1:05 — Core thesis: NIB market saturation and consumer fatigue driving down secondary market values

  • “The only way to restore people's enthusiasm... is if these guys have an unbelievable game. A masterpiece.”

    Chris (Host)@ 10:06 — Establishes stakes for Stern's upcoming cornerstone game at CES

  • “Your customer is not Zach Many. Your customer is not Mike at Automated... Your customer are the people that are buying those games from those distributors.”

    Chris (Host)@ 7:18 — Explains Stern's strategic misalignment: manufacturers lost sight of end-user demand while chasing distributor volume

  • “Limited edition games need to be limited not just by 500 units, but they actually need stuff on them that are limited. An exclusive topper... Exclusive modes...”

    Chris (Host)@ 2:16 — Proposes concrete solution: true differentiation for premium products to justify 2x pricing

  • “They're serving up stuff that's just not worth it... They're charging us as if everything is lobster and filet mignon. And a lot of it is just hanger steak.”

    Chris (Host)@ 21:15 — Metaphor for value collapse: manufacturers pricing mediocre games as premium products

  • “The smart people right now are not buying new in box. How can you watch a video tour... and say, you know what? I'm going to buy right away?”

    Chris (Host)@ 22:08 — Frames NIB buying as economically irrational given visible market oversupply

  • “Just because you have money doesn't make you smart. If you have money, it makes you wealthy. But we all should be listening to who's smart.”

    Chris (Host) — Challenges even wealthy collectors/operators to reconsider buying behavior

Entities

Chris (Host)personSeth DavispersonKeith ElwinpersonBrian EddypersonPat LawlorpersonEric (Jersey Jack)personStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community fatigue with new in box games evidenced by secondary market depreciation, reluctance to pre-order, and shift toward waiting for price drops

    high · Foo Fighters LE dropping below $10,000; Avatar CE losing $1,000; people explicitly telling Chris they're no longer buying NIB

  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern increased LE production from 500 to 1,000 units per game while doubling prices ($6,500 to $13,000), creating oversupply and value collapse

    high · Chris details Stern's dealer expansion strategy and explains how it led to LE commoditization; corroborates with Seth Davis conversation

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Recent games (Avatar, Evil Dead) criticized for insufficient memorable modes despite claims of quantity; theme integration falls short of marketing promises

    medium · Chris challenges Avatar players to name a 'wow' mode; criticizes Evil Dead's theme integration despite strong mechanics

  • ?

    machine_intel: Stern's next cornerstone game arriving at CES (~3 weeks away, early January); rumored to be King Kong or Dungeons and Dragons

    high · Chris confirms CES January 7 date; states game is critical for Stern market recovery

  • $

    market_signal: Massive inventory stockpiling in warehouses; secondary market flooding imminent as sellers compete to unload depreciated NIB units

    medium · Chris references thousands of games piling up; uses polar ice caps/global warming metaphor; notes games appearing on sale (Guns N' Roses LEs)

Topics

NIB (New In Box) Market Saturation and CollapseprimaryStern Pinball Pricing Strategy and LE Volume ExpansionprimarySecondary Market Depreciation of Recent Stern GamesprimaryGame Design Quality vs. Theme and Gameplay InnovationprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's Strategic Missteps (Avatar, Wizard of Oz)secondarySpooky Pinball's Theme Niche Problem (Evil Dead sales)secondaryConsumer Behavior Shift Away from NIB PurchasesprimaryManufacturer Disconnect from End-User Customer BasesecondaryLimited Edition Differentiation and Exclusive ContentsecondaryPop Culture IP Synergy Marketing (Wicked, Goonies movie)secondary

Sentiment

negative(0.15)— Chris expresses deep frustration with pinball manufacturing greed, market saturation, and consumer exploitation. He is sharply critical of Stern, Jersey Jack, and community cheerleaders. However, underlying concern for hobby's future and some optimism about eventual market correction and new player entry at lower prices tempers the negativity slightly. Tone is conversational but pointed critique throughout.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.081

0:00
I want to rock! Rock! I want to rock! Rock! I want to rock! Rock! I want to rock! Rock! Rock, sit, rock, sit, rock, sit, rock, sit, rock, sit, rock, sit, rock! Happy Monday morning everybody! Welcome to Canadian's Pinball Podcast, I Want to Rock Into the New Year! With something that happens in the pinball world that is super exciting! and we're going to talk about this next game from Stern Pinball and what it needs to be
0:33
because it's coming out in like two and a half weeks and we are at the end of the year and I'm reading the room and I'm reading the vibe and a lot of people out there are like, Chris, I'm no longer buying new inbox. I'm watching people like lose $1,000 on an avatar CE without even taking the game. A lot of you are going to lose $1,000 on Pulp Fiction LEs and now we're seeing inbox, brand new in a box Foo Fighter LE is selling for less than $10,000. Everybody look, the data is there.
1:05
The vibes are not lying. The info does not lie. The numbers do not lie. Everybody's tired of this. It's running out of steam, right? If the pinball like manufacturing world were a locomotive that is going down a track and we were on that train all these years, choo choo, new games used to come out. We all jumped on the train. Most of us, we made money. Nobody really lost much money. We were like in this beautiful hobby. Everybody, do you remember it? It's like all of our friends thought
1:38
we were crazy as we watched our friends lose money on their cars, on their watches, everything our friends pumped money into. We stood back and we laughed because we found like the one geek nerdy hobby where you could be in it and not lose a single dollar and now they're laughing at us we're the suckers we're losing so much money on every single new game and there's only one way

Wizard of Oz was Jersey Jack's most loaded game and best theme integration, making Avatar's higher price unjustifiable

medium confidence · Chris's subjective design assessment; used to argue for synergistic marketing with Wicked release

  • The pinball market will experience a collapse when secondary market inventory becomes visible and unsellable

    low confidence · Chris's prediction about future market dynamics; speculative but grounded in supply/demand reasoning

    • @ 21:57

  • “The polar ice caps are melting and just because you don't see it, you don't think global warming is a thing, right? That's pinball right now.”

    Chris (Host)@ 23:01 — Core analogy: market collapse is coming but hidden from public view

  • “We're idiots. We all should have put our money back in our wallets. Nobody should have bought any of these things at these prices.”

    Chris (Host)@ 26:18 — Retrospective self-criticism of early NIB buyer behavior that enabled manufacturer price increases

  • “If it's Harry Potter and Matrix and King Kong... what that will do is make everything that wasn't a dream theme... worth like $3,000.”

    Chris (Host)@ 23:49 — Predicts secondary market collapse for non-premium-theme games when major IPs flood market

    • Spooky Pinball
    company
    King Konggame
    Dungeons and Dragonsgame
    Avatar CEgame
    Harry Pottergame
    The Matrixgame
    Gooniesgame
    Evil Deadgame
    Wizard of Ozgame
    Metallica Remasteredgame
    Jawsgame
    Foo Fighters LEgame
    CESevent
    Bill Brandisperson
    Arcade Timeperson
    Dan Jansenperson
    ?

    business_signal: Stern facing poor sales on recent cornerstone games (John Wick, X-Men, Metallica Remastered); customer base shift requires strategic response

    high · Chris states Stern losing market confidence; cites Seth Davis conversation about needing to amp up creativity

  • ?

    consumer_behavior_shift: Informed consumers now deliberately delay purchases to capture secondary market discounts; treating NIB buying as economically irrational

    high · Chris frames waiting as smart behavior; notes all recent games are cheaper on secondary market within weeks

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Manufacturers missing pop culture synergy opportunities; e.g., Wicked release should trigger Wizard of Oz remake; Goonies movie coming

    medium · Chris criticizes Jersey Jack for not capitalizing on Wicked timing; predicts Spooky will sync Goonies with movie release

  • ?

    product_launch: Jersey Jack Pinball confirmed next two releases are Harry Potter (February per Eric) and Matrix; both expected at premium $15,000+ pricing

    medium · Chris cites conversation with Eric from Jersey Jack; predicts pricing based on market trajectory

  • ?

    venue_signal: Distributors and location operators holding depreciated inventory; difficult to sell used games; creating capital lock-up and margin pressure

    medium · Chris references Automated video showing thousands of stockpiled games; notes dealers would prefer 500 LE constraint

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Community speculation on whether CES announcement is King Kong, Dungeons and Dragons, or surprise remaster; Chris expresses urgency about game quality requirements

    medium · Chris discusses both possibilities; heard rumor of upcoming remaster but dismisses it; advocates for King Kong as optimal choice

  • ?

    design_innovation: LEs command 2x pro pricing but lack exclusive content (modes, toppers, artwork); Chris argues this breaks first-class/economy class value model

    high · Chris proposes exclusive LE modes, toppers, and artwork as solution; uses airplane cabin analogy; references Jaws Revenge example

    • 2:09
    out i keep saying this there's just one way out a game needs to be a masterpiece limited edition games need to be limited not just by 500 units, but they actually need stuff on them that are limited. An exclusive topper that you can't get anywhere else. Exclusive modes that are only in that game. It also needs artwork that's actually better than the pro and premium artwork on the other units that are out there. So we're going to talk about that. You know, we're going to talk
    2:40
    about what's around the corner and what this means for pinball. But before we do that, I want to give a huge shout out to the Canadian club members who rock the most. These are the gentlemen. I'll go down the top 10 or so people. These are the people that have given the most amount of money to Canadian Spinball Podcast throughout history. So these are lifetime amounts of money. I'm not going to read you how much they've given, but I want to give a huge shout out to these gentlemen. Number one on the list is Arcade Time. And Arcade Time is also the only person, I mean this, out of all
    3:16
    of you fat cats out there, you know who you are. You've got so much money. I know who you are. I've seen your collections, your quarter million dollar collections. There is only one person in the entire pinball world that donates a hundred dollars a month right now to Canadas Pinball Podcast, and that is arcade time. Thank you so, so much. I'm going to start doing some private shows just for those who give the most. Then we've got Dan Jansen, friend of the show all of these years.
    3:46
    Dan, thank you so much. Coming in at $50 a month. Steve Jablonski for the longest time. Steve, I love you so much. Steve was always at that $100 tier. He's knocked it down a little bit. But Steve, you are the third most contributor to Canada's Pinball Podcast. Then we got Lou, Lou Froy over there. Thank you so much, Lou. We've got Neil at Pinbar. Thank you so much, Neil. Andrew G., Drew S., It's Lit Pinball, Rodney C., 904 Pinball Zine, Leaderboard Arcade, Pete Rosen, and I'll end at Ted Hauser. Guys, thank you so, so much.
    4:25
    The next show I'll go over who's given the most in each tier right now. All right, everybody, let's talk about it. Let's talk about it because you know you need to talk about this. The fact that Stern has a new game coming out and it's coming out at CES. CES is like January 7th. Last time I checked, it's December 16th. This game is going to be out in less than three weeks. And I'm reading the room right now. And I'm reading on Facebook and I'm reading what people are saying on Pinside. There's not a lot of energy here. It might be Keith Elwin's King Kong. It might be Brian Eddy's Dungeons and Dragons.
    4:58
    Now, I think a lot of us, I said it was going to be King Kong. I think it needs to be King Kong. Stern Pinball, if there ever was a time where Stern Pinball needs a hit game, it's right now. John Wick sales were bad. X-Men is not flying off the shelf. It's been a kind of a lukewarm year for Stern. Obviously, Metallica Remastered has done all right. But I don't think Metallica is going to sell a gazillion units because so many people already have Metallica. And as everybody sees in the pinball market right now,
    5:29
    it's really hard to move out your old inventory. And the problem now is when you do these remastered games, it's really, really hard to move out the old games because nobody wants the old stuff. Again, that's gonna create even more problems for the pinball market. I heard a crazy rumor. Someone hit me up yesterday. They're like, Chris, I'm just gonna say this. I heard another remastered game is coming out next. So that throws another crazy rumor into the mix. So is it going to be a remastered game next and not D&D and not King Kong?
    6:03
    I don't believe it. I don't think it's going to be a remastered game. I think we're going to see one of the new cornerstone games. Stern releases a cornerstone game at CES. Now, the reason why I think this game needs to be a hit is that I think Stern is in jeopardy right now. and I mean this, of completely losing all of the new in box market for its product. And I think they are going through a dramatic shift right now in the company's strategy. And I think they're learning a very hard lesson.
    6:34
    So I talked to Seth Davis, great guy. 99% of what we talk about is always going to be off the record. But what he said to me and it makes total sense You got to remember Stern Pinball is a company that has about 40 years its customers were not you and me Its customers were the distributors and the operators right It's a coin operated device. And the way they got machines on location is they sold them to distributors and distributors for the longest time distributed games to locations.
    7:05
    They weren't going into people's homes. Now that hasn't been the case for a while. And Stern has been very slow to wake up to the new reality. Your customer is not Zach Many. Your customer is not Mike at Automated. Your customer is not Chris and Melissa at Cointaker. Your customer are the people that are buying those games from those distributors. And when you look at all the moves they've made over the last three years, think about it. Why do you think they went to 1,000 LEs? It wasn't because there was demand for 1,000 LEs.
    7:36
    It wasn't that. There wasn't demand for 1,000 LEs of every title at $13,000 from consumers like me and you. What there was demand for was more LEs when LEs were like $8,500 from distributors and dealers. And what Stern did, and I think they made a big mistake, they added a lot more dealers to their roster of people who sell their product because that's their customers. if stern's trying to grow its sales they weren't looking at you and me and saying hey what does the
    8:10
    end user really want what they were doing was if we just increase the amount of people that sell our product aka dealers some of which are just drop ship dealers people these aren't even people with like brick and mortar showrooms if we just increase the amount of dealers we have then we'll just make more le's because we've got a lot more dealers and what they ended up doing is like doubling the volume of the must-have version of a game, significantly increasing the price of that game,
    8:42
    and the dealers and the distros aren't making a lot more money per game sold, I guarantee you, I bet if you asked every distro and dealer out there, they would love to roll back the clock four to five years. They would love there to still be only 500 LEs. They go in an instant. Those guys make their money every single time. They're not passing on a depreciating asset to their customers. The customers are happy. And then the premiums and the pros are flying off the shelf. And everybody won.
    9:14
    Everybody won. You made your money. You had a good living, a good livelihood. And nobody felt like they got burned. The vibe around every new game was exciting. Remember when the phrase 10K by Christmas was like the joke? That a game that was like 6,500 might be 10K by Christmas? The sad part is here we are like that joke started like 10, 11 years ago. It was on like ACDC or a game like Tron. The problem now is that that is now the new reality is that every single Stern LE is going
    9:45
    to be 10K by Christmas. But the problem is they're not starting at 6,500 and moving upwards of 10K. They're starting at $13,000 and moving down to $10,000. And so that to me is where pinball is in a nutshell right now, is the only way to restore people's enthusiasm. The only way to get the momentum back is if these guys have an unbelievable game. Now, Seth Davis told me the next two titles, they really are going to amp up the creativity
    10:17
    in what you see in these games. The problem with Dungeons and Dragons is I don't care what you do. it's not a theme if you think you're going to make 1,000 LEs at 13,000 a pop. So if it is Dungeons and Dragons, I think Stern Pinball needs to only make 500. You can't make more D&Ds than you're going to make of Metallica. Just think about that for a minute, okay? I'm looking at this launch and I'm asking myself, has Stern learned a lesson? And so for them to actually give some value back to the consumers,
    10:50
    I think D&D needs to be 500 units or less. Now, if it is Keith Elwin's King Kong, I think Elwin is the only guy over there. He's the only guy over there where a thousand LEs might make sense. And if you think about it, Keith Elwin Godzilla, Keith Elwin Jaws, his monster versions of his games all have a thousand LEs. So I do think it makes sense to make a thousand Keith Elwin King Kongs. But I do think if Stern is going to do this, I do think on those LE King Kongs, I think
    11:26
    it should be the first new Stern machine in a while in which that LE of King Kong comes with an exclusive topper that you can't find anywhere else. I also think Keith Elwin's King Kong should be a game where there is a mode or a final wizard mode or a mini wizard mode where you can only play that mode on the LE version of the game. Think about it, everybody. The LE of a game now is twice the price of a pro. Twice. So how are
    12:01
    you spending twice as much money and not getting any more horsepower? And I think they need to rethink this. If you're going to spend twice as much money on the creme de la creme version of the game, why isn't there an exclusive mode? Can you just imagine for a minute? Think about it like this. Imagine if Jaws Revenge mode, right? That amazing mode was an exclusive to the LE machines. Then instantly, right? Instantly, those LE games would hold their value forever. And I know what you're saying. Well, the funds should go to everybody. I'm sorry. If I spent twice as much
    12:37
    money as everybody else, I don't want them to get everything I should be getting because I'm paying twice as much money. They need to start thinking this way. And look, and it's easy to justify why the Ellie owners are getting the Jaws revenge mode. And you're not because they spent twice as much money as you. When you get on an airplane, do you expect to get the same meal in coach as you do in first class? But all of a sudden in the pinball world, you got to spend first class prices and you're eating the same meal as the person in the back of the plane. And that's what it's been
    13:11
    for a really long time. And look, not only that, but you're getting screwed. If you buy a Stern LE to get a topper, which is not even special, you get the same topper as everybody else. You're now $15,000 in on your game and then your game plummets to $10,000 in value. I mean I seeing Foo Fighters opened up I know there a new in box Foo Fighters for less than So think about what all you thousand people out there with your Foo Fighters who bought it on day one you now all have lost
    13:41
    And if you bought the topper and you go to move your machine, you're going to lose like $5,000. It's just not sustainable. It's not sustainable. So this game needs to be a hit. So I think Stern knows that. I think King Kong needs to be the game they bring out. They're going to CES. This is the big show. CES gets a lot more people coming through it than damn Texas Pinball Festival, Midwest Gaming Classic. Because after this, think about it, there's no big, big show other than maybe Comic-Con. So maybe they're holding King Kong for Comic-Con. King Kong-a-Con could be how
    14:17
    they bill it if they take it to that show. But I don't know, you know, regardless if it's D&D or Kong, I think all of us are in a really fun position because you know this. Right now, I've been saying this for years. Right now is the greatest period in the history of pinball to wait and see. Right now, if you wait on every single game, you're getting it for less money. This Avatar CE, you know, it's funny when you go into the thread. These guys, are they seeing a game that I'm not seeing? So I don't understand how people are saying that the theme integration in
    14:50
    Avatar is stellar. I don't understand when people talk about how there's like 20 something modes in the game. Can everybody do me a favor? I would like somebody in the chat, on email, somewhere. I've played Avatar. I still don't understand where the wow modes are in this game. Is there a mode in this game that actually does something that's memorable, that makes you feel like giddy? I don't mean just hitting the eclipse jackpot shot. I mean a mode, right? When those multi balls start,
    15:22
    they're all the same. Like where is the mode that you're like, oh my gosh, did you see this? Like Wonka's office, half the lights turn off. Oh my gosh, did you see Guns and Roses? Like, shall we play a game when you're fighting China and it acts like the machine is taken over by the Chinese and it resets itself. And then you're playing war games with the machine. like where are the modes in avatar that we should be talking about and again i'll wait i've been waiting months for people to explain to me what is so amazing in that game and nobody can do it
    15:58
    nobody can do it they just i'm really excited to get my ce and you're like do you really think your ce is going to be any different than all those le's that are out there that nobody wants and do you really think the uv lighting on your machine is all of a sudden going to work because it doesn't work on any of the LEs and they didn't add any additional UV lighting. So that's another game that's going to tank. And everybody knows this. Harry Potter is right around the corner. When I spoke to Eric, when I was out there, he said February. I don't know. Maybe, right? Maybe.
    16:29
    Because Avatar is done. Like once they make these CEs, they're not going to make another Avatar run ever. If Jersey Jack were smart, think about it for a minute. What machine should Jersey Jack have remade right now in the winter of 2024. What is the biggest movie in the world right now that everybody's talking about? What theme out there has so many collaborations and everyone's just throwing money at it? Did Jersey Jack Pinball and its marketing department not realize that they
    17:04
    would sell more new in box Wizard of Oz machines because of the Wicket launch happening right now? more people would buy Wizard of Oz than Avatar. And when you go look to find Wizard of Oz machines right now, you're not finding a lot of them. Because I think everyone's realized that that is still the most loaded Jersey Jack game of all time. It is arguably the most beautiful. It is arguably the one where the theme integration is done right.
    17:34
    And it is the one where they put probably the most passion into it because they were trying to make a name for themselves. If you put Wizard of Oz at $6,500 is what it was brand new next to an Avatar CE. I mean this. You will look over at Avatar and be like, what happened? And how is Avatar $8,500 more money than what Wizard of Oz was? There's no toys at all in Avatar. Wizard of Oz is loaded with toys.
    18:05
    And so the Jersey Jack promise of every game we're going to get better never really materialized. And this is why they need marketing. They need common sense, like syncing up stuff with stuff happening in culture. It's why Spooky Pinball, I think, has Goonies. Because next year, I think there's a new Goonies movie. And so if Spooky Pinball has Goonies next and they sync it up with the new launch of Goonies, it's not going to be based on the new movie. It's going to crush. Remember, Spooky Pinball put everything they could into Evil Dead and it's still not sold out. Not even 888 people that love pinball on a global level saw enough to buy every single one.
    18:50
    And again, it's because the market is softer. They probably have sold 700. The last 188 or so or 100 machines are going to be hard to sell because everybody knows that by the time they make 400, you're going to be able to get one on the used market. There is not like 888 diehard Evil Dead fans out there that also want to drop $10,000 on a pinball machine. The theme integration has done so well on that game. It has me so excited when they finally make a theme that more of us want.
    19:24
    But it's such an easy pass for me based on the theme. I love the insanity mode. I love everything happening, but it's just not a theme for most people. So Stern Pinball's game is going to be so important. Man, I'm just worried. I'm worried for them because if it is Dungeons and Dragons, I don't think there's really anything that could justify a $13,000 Dungeons and Dragons machine. I think Stern has painted themselves into a corner with these prices. So has Jersey Jack. Now I think Jersey Jack's got a way
    19:55
    out. Their next two games are Harry Potter and Matrix. They're going to get out of that corner and we're all going to be buying Harry Potter's and Matrix machines for $15,000. If you think you're not, you're mistaken. I also think Jersey Jack is going to go back to wide body. They're going to go back to loaded machines. And the reason why they took everything out was Pat Lawler. So I don know We going to see everybody I just know this It is December 16th I am looking at the holidays I don know about you but I don get a holiday bonus If I get anything maybe anything it happens sometime in Q1
    20:28
    And even then, it's not enough anymore. It's already been spent. It's already been spoken for. Times are tough. I'm in the mindset now where everything I do is for my family. I can spend a few hundred bucks and blow Killian's mind. and to me that's far more rewarding than chasing after the next new in box game and I think that's where a lot of you are at chasing after the next new in box isn't fun anymore it's not satisfying you already have enough great pinball machines these companies all did get greedy you know that
    21:03
    and not only did they get greedy they stopped listening to us it's not that we can't afford this stuff. It's just that they're putting stuff in front of us that's not that appetizing. And yet they're charging us as if everything they put in front of us is lobster and filet mignon. And a lot of it is just hanger steak. I'm going to use food metaphors now. But you know what I'm saying? They're serving up stuff that's just not worth it. And over time, if you keep doing that, what's going to happen? You're going to stop going to that restaurant. And I think new in box is like
    21:37
    a restaurant. You're tired of it. You're tired of getting burned. You're tired of feeling like a sucker. And it's going to change everybody's behavior. There can't be a single person out there. Even if you love pinball, even if your name's Joe Abadi, even if you're as rich as Neil McCrae, it doesn't matter. Bill Brandis has got more money than Neil McCrae. It doesn't matter. Eventually, you reach a point where just because you have money doesn't make you smart. If you have money, it makes you wealthy. But we all should be listening to who's smart. And the smart
    22:08
    people right now are not buying new in box. Like, how can you watch a video tour of me walking through automated and say to yourself, you know what? Screw all that. I'm going to buy right away. When you're seeing all these thousands of games across America stockpiled without anywhere to go and how hard it is to sell used games now, the smart man is going to say, look, this market is about to collapse. It is. Like, you know this, right? This can't keep happening.
    22:39
    And it's not going to collapse just yet. But when it will collapse is when we see so many more new in box games being put up for sale the way Guns N' Roses LEs are up for sale right now. We're going to see Elton John new in boxes going up for sale because right now they've done a good job of hiding the reality, right? It almost feels like an environmental issue. Like the polar ice caps are melting and just because you don't see it, you don't think global warming is a thing, right? Just because you don't see those thousands
    23:10
    of new and box games piling up in warehouses, you think the pinball market is stronger than it really is. But the truth is they are piling up. The ice caps are melting. Global warming is a thing. And much like the environment, we sometimes don't make a move until it's too late. And I think a lot of people out there have started to adjust your buying behaviors. You've adjusted your relationship with this hobby. And they're not going to be able to hide the coming collapse for much longer.
    23:44
    I mean that. The thing is this. And if these juggernaut themes come out, here's what's going to happen. If it's Harry Potter and Matrix and King Kong and there's more juggernaut themes like Goonies, what that will do to the pinball market is it's going to make everything that wasn't a dream theme that you thought held some value. That stuff's going to be where the collapse really happens first. So for example, if Spooky Pinball has the Goonies and they nail it, we're going to start to see games like Halloween and Ultraman be worth like $3,000.
    24:19
    I mean that $3,000, not five, not six, not seven, $3,000 because a world in which everyone's out of space, those games that really almost nobody wants are going to sink to new lows. And ironically, I mean this ironically, that is going to be what actually does get new people into pinball because the entry level price on newer modern games is about to become so low that people can dabble in on these games.
    24:51
    And those people are going to be funny because they're going to buy those things and be like, hey, I just got this thing for three grand that someone spent $7,500 on. They're going to feel happy. And that is what pinball used to be. How many of you out there got into this hobby because you bought your pins and you feel like you got a good deal? That is what the majority of us, that was the gateway for the majority of everybody in this hobby. And for a lot of you out there, you know who I'm talking about. When you got in
    25:21
    early on, right, like 15 years ago, you could buy like a Monster Bash for $800, a Twilight Zone for $1,200. And for everyone else out there, even when you were here when Stern LEs were $6,500, think about it now. You used to be able to get a Stern LE for $6,500. You felt like you got a good deal. We haven't felt in like four years like any of us have got a good deal. Now people want $37,000 for Batman SLEs. Remember when they were $15,000 and there was an uproar? And that is what
    25:56
    needs to change. And I mean it. The next generation of people coming into this hobby are going to feel like they're getting a good deal finally because they're going to follow in the footsteps of all of us suckers who convinced these pinball companies that they could sell us $7,000 to $15,000 games, that they could sell us almost $10,000 unlimited premiums on every single launch. We're idiots. We all should have put our money back in our wallets. Nobody should have bought any of these things at these prices, and all of these prices would
    26:27
    come down. The hobby would not have collapsed. They would have had to bring prices down, and they would have had to made better themes. instead there's too many cheerleaders out there who kept convincing you that global warming and pinball oversaturation is not a thing it is a thing better be a hit game from stern you're about to see a lot more games piling up in boxes everybody have a great money we'll talk to you soon
    27:03
    Tell me that the player seems No, no, no, no, no