Episode 1009: "Anyone Else Exhausted Before Expo?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·25m 26s·analyzed·Oct 12, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda warns against pre-Expo hype toxicity while critiquing Alice's launch and Avatar's missed potential.

Summary

Kaneda discusses pre-Expo exhaustion and community drama, focusing on Alice's rushed reveal by Dutch Pinball, Avatar's underwhelming sales and design execution, and anticipation for X-Men, Metallica Remastered, and Evil Dead at Expo. He urges the community to manage expectations, understand manufacturer context, and reduce interpersonal conflict while holding companies accountable for customer communication and product quality.

Key Claims

Avatar has poor sales adoption, particularly disappointing compared to Elton John's reception early on.
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing hearsay: 'I heard the sales are not great. I heard the sales are not as good as Elton John.'
75% or more of Avatar sales are Collector's Edition orders, explaining muted community enthusiasm.
low confidence · Kaneda's personal assessment: 'I really believe this, I think 75% if not more of all Avatar sales today are collector's editions.'
Avatar's lower playfields fail to deliver satisfying gameplay and don't evoke ocean/underwater aesthetics effectively.
high confidence · Kaneda's analysis: 'the lower playfields was not satisfying' and 'those lower playfields don't make you feel like a sensation of being in the ocean.'
Dutch Pinball's Alice announcement was rushed and amateur, lacking proper customer communication and showmanship.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'it feels amateur hour. It feels lo-fi. It feels cheap. It feels rushed.' and 'They wouldn't rush to Expo.'
Dutch Pinball stated a 4-week production window for Alice, with 4 additional weeks for US shipping, creating timeline risk.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'The game is a four-week game in eight weeks. That is what Damien said to everybody... There is a four-week time it takes to ship the games from the Netherlands to the United States.'
Alice needs to hit 500 games in 2025 but requires January 2025 production to meet that target.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'If there are no games going to customers in January, then there's no way they're going to hit 500 games in the year of 2025.'
Stern regrets passing on Back to the Future licensing.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'We've even learned recently that Stern regrets passing on Back to the Future.'
X-Men is the strongest upcoming game at Expo with minimal negative aspects besides incomplete code.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'I think the big winner at Expo is going to be X-Men... There's almost like nothing not to like in this game other than the code.'

Notable Quotes

“Why are you in this hobby? Like, are you in this hobby to get triggered every week? I'm not angry that Jersey Jack put two lower playfields into Avatar that are not that much fun to play, just makes it easier for me not to write a check for $15,000.”
Kaneda — Foundational thesis: urging community to manage emotional investment and recognize personal agency in purchase decisions
“There comes a point where you just have to look in the mirror and say to yourself, I'm not going to wake up and be triggered by things I have no control over.”
Kaneda — Direct appeal to mental health and perspective in hobby engagement
“If you try to evaluate this game as if it's another Stern, a JJP game, a spooky game, it doesn't work. This game is not supposed to be like that.”
Kaneda — Defense of Alice's design philosophy and call for contextual evaluation rather than comparative critique
“What if Melvin just wanted to make a beautiful work of art based on a John Papaduke idea [that] actually had a game in it that you could play and that's it. Hard stop.”
Kaneda — Frames Alice as artistic rather than competitive game, suggesting manufacturing/marketing mismatch with brand positioning
“If you're branding this company as an exclusive high-end pinball company and you reveal like this, it's anything but that. It feels amateur hour. It feels lo-fi. It feels cheap. It feels rushed.”
Kaneda — Explicit critique of Dutch Pinball's launch execution and brand positioning disconnect
“You're gonna have to find a way to communicate to customers where they are in the line to get a game. That's how Spooky does it and it's the right way to do it. Am I number 20? Am I number 350?”
Kaneda — Prescriptive industry best practice advice for boutique manufacturers on order queue transparency
“Metallica is like kind of one of the greatest pinball machines ever. It's fun to shoot, it's got toys, it's got amazing music, it had amazing artwork, it's got everything. It's like when Stern actually made their best efforts, you got games like Metallica.”
Kaneda — Positions Metallica Remastered as major threat to X-Men momentum at Expo; establishes design excellence benchmark

Entities

Kanedaperson MelvinpersonDamienpersonMark SeidenpersonCarrie HardypersonChrisperson Zach Menyperson

Signals

?
product_concern: Avatar's lower playfields criticized as unsatisfying gameplay and failing to evoke underwater/ocean aesthetic despite UV effects. Gap between visual promise and mechanical/emotional delivery.
high · Kaneda: 'the lower playfields was not satisfying' and 'those lower playfields don't make you feel like a sensation of being in the ocean'
~
sentiment_shift: Avatar experiencing muted community enthusiasm and poor sales adoption compared to Elton John launch, attributed to CE-heavy ordering and lack of 'Wow response'
medium · Kaneda: 'Just feels like there's not a lot of conversation happening around the game. I heard the sales are not great... it's not creating that level of excitement within the community'
?
manufacturing_signal: Dutch Pinball Alice faces tight 4-week production + 4-week shipping window; needs January 2025 production start to hit 500-game 2025 target; risk if manufacturing delays or doesn't ramp immediately post-Expo
high · Kaneda: 'The game is a four-week game in eight weeks... If there are no games going to customers in January, then there's no way they're going to hit 500 games in the year of 2025'
?
community_signal: Community conflict escalating in forums (Pinside), particularly 'Alice thread' with polar opposite opinions and personal attacks. Kaneda identifies unhealthy discourse patterns and exhaustion from drama.
high · Kaneda: 'There's literally people in the Alice thread and they know who they are... this week extra exhausting... people being hard on each other and attacking each other'
?
operational_signal: Kaneda prescribes queue position transparency as industry standard, citing Spooky's model as best practice. Dutch Pinball criticized for lacking order status communication.

Topics

Alice launch and reveal executionprimaryAvatar sales performance and design criticismprimaryExpo preview expectations and game momentumprimaryCommunity conflict and discourse toxicityprimaryManufacturer communication and transparency standardsprimaryProduction timeline risks and supply chain logisticssecondaryX-Men vs Metallica Remastered competitive positioningsecondaryBoutique manufacturer launch strategies (Dutch vs Barrels vs Spooky)secondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda balances criticism of manufacturers (Alice rushed, Avatar design flawed) and community discourse (exhausting toxicity) with optimism about upcoming games (X-Men, Evil Dead) and appeal for perspective. Tone oscillates between frustration with industry dynamics and compassionate coaching toward audience members.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.076

Welcome to Ginnadus Pinball Podcast. Happy Friday. One week from today. I mean it, one week from today. All of the pinball world is going to be much different. To see all the tons of videos and timelapses of stuff for free this week on Pinside, let's get right to it. This is one of the most beautiful Stern machines I've ever seen. There is only 811. Maybe the only is the problem. That's maybe too many games. And it's got one of the greatest layouts Stern has ever done. One of the most beautiful art packages Stern has ever done. And the code is actually coming along nicely. And yet there aren't even 811 of you who want one. The whole they be able to show us the you'll be affected. The end of this game. I showed something yesterday about Avatar. We'll talk a little bit about it on this show. I really do think they just missed the mark on bringing the bioluminescent world of Pandora to life. And I'm going to explain why I think they missed the mark with how they developed the game. But look, we've all had so many opinions this week to the point now where I think everybody just needs to chill out. Why are you in this hobby? Like, are you in this hobby to get triggered every week? I'm not angry that Jersey Jack put two lower playfields into Avatar that are not that much fun to play, just makes it easier for me not to write a check for $15,000. I'm not upset that Stern is selling $13,000 LEs anymore because they've been doing it now for years. And there comes a point where you just have to look in the mirror and say to yourself, I'm not going to wake up and be triggered by things I have no control over. You know there's two arrows in life that hit you. The first arrow hits you and it's out of your control, right? That's Alice in Wonderland being revealed, right? You didn't see that arrow coming the way it came to you. The second arrow that hits you is the self-inflicted one. If you want to let this thing get to you to the point where you have to be angry about it, like there's literally people in the Alice thread and they know who they are. That's right. I think that's what's made this week extra exhausting when you follow pinball because you've got these polar opposite opinions and they're really unhealthy. Both of them are. Really, I mean it. Like it's really unhealthy to like constantly go to bat for something in such a confidence inspiring way. And I know you're looking at me right now being like, you did the same thing. But I just had fun with the FOMO of the launch. I'm not attacking anybody. Like I get why people I'm not sold yet on this Alice game. And I have to see this thing. I have to play this thing. And the closest I'm going to get is to hearing how people experience this game at Expo because that's going to be everything. The stream they did didn't work. You know, we got new video today of them hitting the ramp like four times in a row. I don't care about that either. I need to know that it all comes together in a normal setting during a normal game. And let's face it, people, this isn't like Gen Z kids who get participation awards. You don't get a pat on the back because your ramp shot is makeable. Because you know what? Your ramp shot should be makeable. I mean, if we want to talk about ramp shots that are not very makeable, let's talk about that upper right ramp in Avatar. I love the shot. It is rewarding. The most likely would have been better off just doing that. Like just show up at Expo, no one knows Alice is going to be there and just show the game and let people play it right. Let people play it and then you could invite some of the great streamers that are there with their gear to have a few hours on it in a private room and show everybody the gameplay. Gameplay, the other thing that's just kind of driving me crazy about this damn Alice launch people and I'm just gonna say this is like I think so many people still don't understand why this game exists. He wanted to make the J-pop foam core idea into a working pin. He did do that. If you try to evaluate this game as if it's another Stern, a JJP game, a Spooky game, it doesn't work. This game is not supposed to be like that. And it's weird, right? It's like if you think about a pinball machine and a pinball experience, if you try to critique everything equally without taking into effect the context of what this thing is trying to do, I think you miss some of it. And look, I know this angers people, but what if Melvin just wanted to make a beautiful work of art based on a J-pop idea? The game was a game that was a game that actually had a game in it that you could play and that's it. Hard stop. That's all he wanted to do. He didn't want to make a game with deep rulesets that you'll never understand. He didn't make a game with tons of toys and complex mechanisms. No. He made a game that's a work of art that is probably visually stunning that you can play and you can have a half hour of fun on and then move on to your much more complex game. If you're branding this company as an exclusive high-end pinball company and you reveal like this, it's anything but that. It feels amateur hour. It feels lo-fi. It feels cheap. It feels rushed. And I think if they could do it again, they would not do any of this again. They wouldn't do it. They wouldn't rush to Expo. They wouldn't have got Carrie Hardy and struggling to try to show you the game in the best possible light. The game is a four-week game in eight weeks. That is what Damien said to everybody. The timeline is supposedly shorter than that. There is a four-week time it takes to ship the games from the Netherlands to the United States. Will people be able to air freight those games? We shall see. But I still think there is a level of risk involved with this game. There is a level of risk involved with any boutique company unless they have proven that they can make multiple games over multiple years and nobody's left out to dry. Of course I think you have to be somewhat cautious. We don't know that Dutch Pinball can switch over a line, take the money, and get the games to customers in that window. The other thing I think they're gonna have to do, and I've been telling this to Melvin, you're gonna have to find a way to communicate to customers where they are in the line to get a game. It just can't be I'm just gonna get it when it comes or I'm just gonna have $1500 down and I have no idea when I'm gonna be hit up for the larger payment for the game. You gotta let people know. Am I number 20? Am I number 350? What number am I? That's how Spooky does it and it's the right way to do it. And I hear a lot of people saying that Dutch Pinball should have launched this company the way that Barrels of Fun launched the company and there is a lot of validity to that. Barrels of Fun, they developed the game, right? They built games, put them in boxes before they revealed the game to the world. So the line was going. Barrels' line did not like turn on and never turn off. They have like a weird period where they had games in boxes when they revealed and then there was like nothing for a few weeks, maybe even a couple months and there was like a delay and that was a little frustrating for people who went in early on the game. I think the challenge a really important month. If there are no games going to customers in January, then there's no way they're going to hit 500 games in the year of 2025. And there's a few things they could still do. They said they wanted to make 500. Coming out of Expo, Melvin's going to know how many actual deposits have been paid and he could make the decision like, let's just say like, all right, we're tinkering around like 425. I don't want that lingering number of like unsold games to hang over my manufacturing. We're only going to make 400 of these games. I mean, no one's ever going to fault him if he takes the number down. He just can never take the number up. So I don't know. Like, it's going to be a really critical Expo showing of this game. I'm just looking forward to people playing it who have no skin in the game. Will it be fun? Will it be exciting? The other thing is this, it's no longer gonna be in a bubble when it's at Expo. Ten feet down the line is gonna be an X-Men. Ten feet in the other direction is gonna be a Jersey Jack Avatar. And not just that, Expo is gonna be filled with so many amazing games. Stern's gonna bring out Metallica Remastered. So you know, people are gonna be playing some of the best pinball ever. The game is a great work of art and I think on that level he achieved something. Whether or not it's a good game or not, I don't know and neither do you. It's too early to call it either way. We shall see more next week. Alright, Avatar. This game, it's been out for a while. Just feels like there's not a lot of conversation happening around the game. I heard the sales are not great. I heard the sales are not as good as Elton John. It definitely, right? Now, you know, it's been out there like people have had this game now for a few weeks. It's not getting that wow response we got from people who were playing Elton John early on. It's just not creating that level of excitement within the community. And so I was thinking about like this Pandora World under glass. And the more I just look at the game, I just think they made a colossal mistake to put so much money and real estate went into the lower playfields was not satisfying, and had the Pandora's world above the playfield and had a lot of sculpts that made it come to life. It's not feeling when that UV comes on, that the entire game is glowing. No, I'm not sure what you're talking about. It's not. And the stuff that glows, you know, most of it is just flat on the playfield. It should have sculpts all over that game that bring you into the jungle and the aquatic world of Avatar. And even those lower playfields, those lower playfields don't make you feel like a sensation of being in the ocean. We've seen other pinball machines better simulate that like water effect in the lower playfield than Avatar does. It's still a beautiful game. It's unique, right? It's unlike anything else Jersey Jack has made. I will give Jersey Jack credit. No two games of theirs are even remotely alike. So it's a fresh new JJP game. It's absolutely stunning. And I'm just curious to see when people play this game at Expo, are they going to walk away impressed with the game? Will the effects that the game is trying to do really come through at a show? And are more people going to order it? The reason why we're not hearing a lot about Avatar, I really believe this, I think 75% if not more of all Avatar sales today are Collector's Editions. You have to almost have your head examined to not get the CE. It's such a nicer package than the LE. And that is why I think we're not hearing a lot because the people that want it the baddest have to wait until November, December to get their game. I don't know why Jersey Jack should have just made the CEs right away, get them out the door first, get people excited because think about it, like early adopters CE excitement is just going to sell you more CEs and then when those hopefully sell out, you have LEs for everybody else. So we shall see. I think for me the other big question mark is what will the code be like at Expo? I know they've been working on it and Mark Seiden has gone on the record to say they're going to sync up the voices. I will be looking at that and if that is not the case I really don't understand why they keep misleading us on this part of their game. So we shall see. I think the big winner at Expo is going to be X-Men. Without a doubt, I think the more people get on this game, the more it has such a refreshing, beautiful feel to it. There's almost like nothing not to like in this game other than the code. It's not that far along, but when that's the only thing and everything else is so amazing, it's going to be fine because there's a really good chance Stern's going to get the code right and they're going to make this game everything you want it to be. They're already getting in the theme song. They listening to feedback. Stern wants to get this game right. The thing that weird to me is right when X is picking up momentum and has the attention now you gonna drop Metallica Remastered right on top of that. And if Metallica is like crazy new artwork, amazing LCD animations and it's the old game we love in a new format, I think that could win over the show because Metallica is like kind of one of the greatest pinball machines ever. It's fun to shoot, it's got toys, it's got amazing music, it had amazing artwork, it's got everything. It's like when Stern actually made their best efforts, you got games like Metallica. There's no way around it. It's gonna take attention away from X-Men. It's gonna take attention away from Avatar and Alice. And from there, you know, there's really not a lot of other major stuff happening. We're gonna get Turner Pinball is now shipping Ninja Eclipse. I'm happy for Chris, I'm glad he's getting his game out there. How well will that game do? I don't know. That's really a game. That is for someone who just wants something different. But he's getting it done. He's getting it done. The games are being made. They're on the line. And you know, sometimes when you just get it done and there's not a lot of drama, there's not a lot of fanfare. You might not hear me talk about it a lot. It's just because it's happening. Like new pinball in the world, people buying it, want something different and they've got Ninja Eclipse. Princess Bride, you know, I know Jerry's getting those games. I only made 350, that's what he wanted to do. They remisted 500. I think it would have taken a lot of pressure off to make all these games next year. Adding 500, he's gonna be really cutting it close and I did also, Jess opens the door for a lot of question marks around Back to the Future. How they can do that, how they give us a fly at a man for that game. It doesn't really work. The math will never work. So I think Dutch is going to have to like really figure some stuff out and figure out what kind of company do they want to be. And they've got a lot of polish they need to work on. They just really need to have a lot of polish because after Expo, then we're going to get Spooky Pinball's Evil Dead. And you're going to see it like a beautiful video from Zach Many, 20 minutes long, probably making everybody want to own the game. And I think that game, if they make just 666, I don't know how many they're going to make, but imagine if they only made 666 of Evil Dead, you're looking at a day one sellout. You are. You know, I've heard this thing is loaded with toys or a major toy and you know, that featurette video is going to go a long way. I think the key takeaway for everybody this week, some things in pinball have come along nicely and we want games to be for sale when they're on the line, not a day sooner. We want reveal videos and we want to see the game before you ask us for over $10,000. We want you to do your due diligence as a company and show us respect as customers and give us everything we need to know before you ask us for money. And that did not happen this week with Alice. It's fine if you want to tease stuff the way Barrels did, but when it comes to it, you got to execute better during your reveal week. Look, we've even learned recently that Stern regrets passing on Back to the Future. All these companies are still learning very vital lessons. It doesn't matter what size you are. Every single pinball company is on an endless journey to get better. Some are further in other areas than others, but it's all a work in progress. What I do encourage each and every one of you is, yeah, be hard on the companies, but not hard on each other. We have a saying in my job, all I've read on Pinside this week is a lot of people being hard on each other and attacking each other and fighting it out and acting like someone's right, someone's wrong. You know, I'm mad at Dutch from 11 years ago and I'm not going to let go of that anger. I'm telling you everybody, go have a boozy lunch, make love to your wives, play with your children, find a way to wake up in a better mood.