claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036
Don sells three games for liquidity, teases upcoming Spooky title, speculates on Stern Star Wars.
Evil Dead is currently trading at the top of its market ($14,500 sold price) and will likely remain above MSRP going forward, but not significantly higher like Rick and Morty.
high confidence · Don speaking from market observation and secondary sales experience; he sold his Evil Dead for $14,500.
Harry Potter CE will trade similarly to Elton John ($12,500-$13,000) due to large production numbers and open-ended ordering window.
medium confidence · Don's prediction based on comparing production volume and market saturation; estimates 1,600-2,000+ CEs already ordered.
Over 750 toppers have been sold for Evil Dead (888 total units), suggesting most buyers are purchasing the topper accessory.
high confidence · Don citing data from streaming reveal last night at Spooky.
Spooky has caught up on Butter cabinet production backlogs; no longer requires weeks/months of waiting.
high confidence · Don speaking from recent factory visits to Benton, Wisconsin.
Ultra VP (virtual pinball cabinet, version 5.0) sold to Spooky Pinball; replaced by Ultraman cabinet acquisition.
high confidence · Don confirming transaction; saw Bug streaming on the Ultra VP after purchase.
Star Wars from Stern is rumored to be either Episode I (John Borg design), Episodes IV-VI (like Ritchie's), or Darth Vader-themed.
low confidence · Don reporting community speculation; states 'I haven't heard, and I don't know what this Star Wars game is' and 'I've heard people that seem relatively assured' but admits uncertainty.
Don has seen an unreleased Spooky Pinball game's topper/theme at the Benton factory and is pre-committing to purchase with Butter cabinet.
high confidence · Don stating directly: 'I happened to see a new forthcoming product' during Benton trips; reveals he has 'the page preloaded' for launch.
The unreleased Spooky game is comparable to or exceeds Evil Dead in build quality and theme integration, with earlier-stage code.
“So that's all I would say. For myself, I've got to go and try to find one of these later on. Considering I sold mine for $14,500, I'm risking and I'm gambling and betting that I'll be able to pick one up for that or less going forward.”
Don @ ~28:00 — Demonstrates Don's confidence in Evil Dead's secondary market floor pricing; reflects broader market strategy of selling at peak and rebuying lower.
“Butter Cabinet, you really have the most desirable version of this game. Never going to make any more than what they've sold.”
Don @ ~31:00 — Investment thesis for Evil Dead Butter variant; signals collectibility and resale premium positioning.
“I don't want to shill you into this. You know, if you're not in a position to buy a game, don't buy a game. If you don't like Spooky titles, don't buy it.”
Don @ ~58:00 — Caveat on his enthusiasm for unreleased Spooky game; attempts to frame recommendation as genuine rather than sales-driven despite obvious contradiction.
“And I'm just telling you, yes. Yes. I'll tell you for me personally, after seeing what is forthcoming, I absolutely have, in addition to my housing money, I have some Spooky Pinball money sitting there waiting, and I've got the page preloaded.”
Don @ ~48:00 — Direct evidence of pre-commitment to unreleased Spooky game; demonstrates high confidence/enthusiasm levels.
“Rick and Morty's come down some in price. I think the lowest I've seen them is like $9,000. It's still higher than MSRP, and that's an older Spooky title. So I think we will see what Evil Dead is. It'll probably hang out above MSRP for sure, for sure going forward.”
Don @ ~35:00 — Market comparison providing historical precedent for Evil Dead's trajectory; supports claims about premium limited-edition pricing durability.
“They don't really have a backlog in the process anymore for getting Butter. It used to be if you wanted a Butter cabinet, you would anticipate having to wait several extra weeks to potentially a month or two... Now it seems like they're pretty much caught up.”
Don @ ~32:00 — Operational signal from factory: Spooky production bottleneck resolved; impacts customer satisfaction and order fulfillment timelines.
sentiment_shift: High anticipated demand for unreleased Spooky game; Don pre-committing with Butter purchase and predicting day-one or TPF sell-out
high · Don states 'I've got the page preloaded'; will hit refresh on launch; predicts sell-out at Pinball at the Beach or TPF; other insiders (Kerry) also pre-committing
competitive_signal: Butter cabinet becoming standard expectation for high-end Spooky releases; topper attachment rate 750+ units for 888 Evil Dead units signals 85%+ adoption
high · Don noting 750+ toppers sold for 888 games; encouraging buyers to add Butter for resale value; topper becoming collectibility standard; limited-edition tier differentiation.
design_philosophy: Spooky Pinball design evolution accelerating with Evil Dead representing major step-up from TCM/Looney Tunes; next game continuing trajectory
high · Don noting Evil Dead as 'big step up'; product refinement timeline shows R&D investment during Scooby/TCM production; unreleased game 'on par with that level'
event_signal: Pinball at the Beach (February, Tampa) becoming key showcase venue for new Spooky releases before public sale; expected to be more heavily attended in 2025
high · Don stating unreleased Spooky game 'will probably be the first place that you will play before you pay'; expects increased attendance based on 2024 feedback; planning to attend; Evil Dead unveiled there previously
licensing_signal: Star Wars licensing flexibility uncertain; community speculating on scope constraints (Episode I limitations, IP control on themes)
groq_whisper · $0.073
high confidence · Don's direct assessment from hands-on experience: 'on par with that level of game as far as build, theme integration.'
“Since this is Patreon and I do have to give you guys some inside information, I'm not mentioning this anywhere else, but during my trips to Benton, Wisconsin, I happened to see a new forthcoming product.”
Don @ ~45:00 — Establishes confidentiality context and insider access; frames Patreon-exclusive reveal as privileged information.
“If this thing doesn't sell out day one, it's selling out during TPF next year. Those are my impressions and predictions.”
Don @ ~56:00 — Strong demand prediction for unreleased Spooky game; expects sell-out at Pinball at the Beach or Texas Pinball Festival.
“I hate that idea. I hate that idea. [about Star Wars Episode I]”
Don @ ~42:00 — Clear emotional reaction to potential Episode I theme for Star Wars; expresses strong preference for Darth Vader or OT themes.
“Considering where these guys have been coming from, obviously with TCM's layout and Looney Tunes' layout, it was a big step up from where they were coming from. And I think Evil Dead was like another big step up.”
Don @ ~52:00 — Trajectory assessment of Spooky's design evolution; frames Evil Dead as culmination of R&D spanning Scooby-Doo through TCM production cycles.
medium · Don expressing horror at potential Episode I theme; preferring Darth Vader-only or OT approach; notes 'I don't know if it's possible' regarding Darth Vader focus; suggests IP holder (Lucasfilm/Disney) may constrain designer choices
market_signal: Harry Potter will trade like Elton John ($12,500-$13,000 range) due to high production volume and continued ordering window
medium · Don estimates 1,600-2,000+ CEs already ordered; production not capped; compares to Elton John market saturation; predicts future secondary market price pressure
market_signal: Evil Dead trading at market peak ($14,500) with expectation of sustained above-MSRP pricing; limited edition scarcity supporting premium valuation
high · Don sold Evil Dead for $14,500 vs $11,500 MSRP; only 888 units produced; similar to Rick and Morty trajectory; Butter variant commanding additional premium
community_signal: Don relocating to Benton, Wisconsin for job with Spooky Pinball; gaining insider access to unreleased games and factory operations
high · Don states 'job looks like it's going to be relocating'; visited Benton multiple times; has seen unreleased Spooky title; maintains media presence while employed
announcement: Ultra VP virtual pinball cabinet sold to Spooky Pinball for arcade use; demonstrating virtual machines as professional tool for game testing and classic library access
high · Don confirms sale; Bug streaming on Ultra VP; Spooky acquiring 'bank and library of every classic game' plus unlicensed themes for R&D; VP now at version 8.0 with 4K screens
product_strategy: Spooky Pinball resolved Butter cabinet production backlog; previously 2-8 weeks, now no delay
high · Don from factory visits: 'they're pretty much caught up' on Butter production; no longer requires extended wait times vs decal versions
rumor_hype: Star Wars from Stern rumored to be Episode I with John Borg design, but community uncertainty; alternative Episode IV-VI or Darth Vader-only themes possible
low · Don states 'I haven't heard, and I don't know'; 'I've heard people that seem relatively assured'; mentions Jar Jar, pod racing, Darth Maul speculation; expresses strong negative reaction to Episode I concept
technology_signal: Virtual pinball cabinets (VP 5.0-8.0) advancing with 4K screens, 3D audio, physical actuators/coils; ~$9,500 price point competitive with lower-tier physical games
high · Don praising Ultra VP: 'flipper lag nearly non-existent'; 'very high-definition screen'; 'incredible' sound; physical coils and gear motors for feedback; newer versions with UHD 4K, air blower feature; $9,500 MSRP depreciation proof-of-value