Episode 973: "Kaneda's 6-Month Challenge to Everyone"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 28s·analyzed·Jul 8, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

Kaneda warns that LE pinball market collapse is unsustainable; advises waiting 6 months for 30% discounts.

Summary

Kaneda criticizes the unsustainable pricing and secondary market collapse in the limited edition pinball market, citing recent examples like John Wick LE losing $2,000+ in value immediately after purchase. He argues that current pricing structures are destroying collector investment security and advises the community to wait for price drops rather than buying new releases at inflated prices, while calling out the broader trend affecting games like Elton John, Foo Fighters, James Bond, and upcoming Pulp Fiction LE.

Key Claims

John Wick LE has already lost $2,000 in value and remains unsold at $11,000 despite multiple examples being on the market
high confidence · Kaneda citing current market listings and secondary market pricing
Only Jaws has held value among recent Stern LEs; Foo Fighters, James Bond, Venom, and John Wick have all depreciated significantly
high confidence · Kaneda's direct market observation and comparison of LE titles
Elton John CE is priced at $15,000 and Platinum at $12,500, making the total cost with taxes and shipping approach $16,000+
high confidence · Kaneda citing Jersey Jack official pricing
Jersey Jack claims to have made all 1,000 Elton John Collectors Editions, but Kaneda expresses skepticism about this number
medium confidence · Kaneda questioning Jersey Jack's disclosure practices and numbering inconsistencies
Pulp Fiction LE production will begin in September through November with approximately 1,000 units, flooding the market
medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'latest on the street' information about upcoming Stern release
Pro version machines hold value better than Premium and LE versions due to unlimited production and lower initial cost
high confidence · Kaneda's direct market analysis and investment comparison
This is the biggest buyer's market in pinball history, making it ideal to wait and purchase machines at 30% discounts
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion based on current market dynamics and his '6-month challenge' investment strategy

Notable Quotes

“If you order an LE and play it once and sell it for a multi-thousand dollar loss, something's wrong with you. Like literally, something is wrong with you.”
Kaneda @ Early segment — Core argument about the irrationality of LE purchasing at current prices
“now we're living in a completely upside down pinball marketplace you unbox the thing and it loses two to three thousand dollars”
Kaneda @ Mid-segment — Illustrates the market inversion from pre-2020s when LEs gained value
“It's the biggest buyer's market in the history of pinball. If I'm a dealer, if I'm a distro, I'm as nervous as can be”
Kaneda @ Late segment — Signals distro stress and identifies structural market disadvantage for operators/dealers
“Stop buying every single new game. It's not making your waistline thinner. It's not making you happier. It's not making your game room more impressive.”
Kaneda @ Closing section — Personal lifestyle critique framed as core messaging for the '6-month challenge'
“Wait, wait, wait while you get in shape, shape, shape and we're all gonna feel so much better.”
Kaneda @ Final segment — Kaneda's new catchphrase encapsulating his investment and lifestyle challenge
“Game number one should be game number one and game number 1000 should be the last arcade game off the line. I just don't get it, right?”
Kaneda @ Mid-segment — Criticism of Jersey Jack's opaque production numbering practices
“if you don't need a game, even in the first six months to a year that it's out, I'm gonna have significant savings on every single title”
Kaneda @ Mid-to-late segment — Core thesis: waiting guarantees financial gain across all recent titles

Entities

Kanedaperson Donald GarrisonpersonJohn Wick (Stern)gameElton John (Jersey Jack)gamePulp Fiction LE (Stern)gameFoo Fighters (Stern)gameJames Bond (Stern)gameVenom (Stern)gameJaws (Stern)game

Signals

$
market_signal: John Wick LE dropping $2,000+ immediately post-launch and remaining unsold at $11,000; broader pattern across Foo Fighters, James Bond, Venom all experiencing significant depreciation
high · Direct market listings observed by Kaneda; multiple examples cited with specific price points
?
product_concern: LE pricing ($13k-$15k+) with taxes/shipping approaching $16k+ is unsustainable; collectors losing $2-$3k per machine; creates financial disincentive to purchase at launch
high · Kaneda's calculation of total out-of-pocket costs and comparison to historical returns
?
business_signal: Distributors and dealers holding unsold LE inventory facing major losses; incentive structure now favors Pro purchasers (unlimited production, lower initial cost) over LE buyers (limited, high price, high depreciation)
high · Kaneda's analysis of distro position holding John Wick LEs that won't sell and the investment loss cascade
$
market_signal: Current market is described as 'biggest buyer's market in pinball history'; 6-month waiting strategy yields approximately 30% discounts on recent LE releases
medium · Kaneda's direct market observation and pricing comparisons between launch and secondary market
?
regulatory_signal: Tax and shipping costs significantly impact effective purchase price for collectors; Kaneda notes many buyers must pay these on LEs, pushing total cost above $16k in some cases
medium · Kaneda's calculation of Elton John CE total cost including taxes and shipping

Topics

Secondary market pricing collapse for limited edition pinballsprimaryUnsustainable pricing structure for new releases (Pro vs. Premium vs. LE tiers)primaryInvestment dynamics: why Pro versions hold value better than LEsprimaryJersey Jack production transparency and serial numbering practicessecondaryDistro and dealer nervous about unsold LE inventory and lossessecondaryKaneda's 6-month waiting strategy and lifestyle challenge (fitness + delayed purchases)primaryComparison to pre-2020s LE market when games appreciated in valuesecondaryUpcoming Pulp Fiction LE production timeline and expected market saturationsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.78)— Kaneda is frustrated and critical throughout, expressing strong disapproval of current market practices, pricing structures, and consumer behavior. However, tone becomes encouraging and motivational toward the end with the '6-month challenge' framing (wait + get fit). Mixed frustration/hope sentiment overall.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.064

Everybody's working for the weekend. Everybody wants a new romance. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Ah, Happy Monday everybody! Welcome to Kinnadus Pinball Podcast. Kinnadus Paternity Leave is over. I'm heading back to work today. I'm so happy. It is sunny out. It is Monday morning. And you're gonna get the most entertaining pinball podcast episode 970 something. We're gonna talk all about the fact that a John Wick LE has popped up for sale for $11,000 instantly. This new Stern LE has lost $2,000. What is that mean when you telegraph to 999 other buyers that they just lost $2000 on a cardboard box? How do you think they feel right now? How do you think Donald Garrison feels right now knowing he could have saved $2000 if he just waited? Where did therente of in 그러� standard I hope you don't cancel your subscription, but if you order in LE and play it once and sell it for a multi-thousand dollar loss, something's wrong with you. Like literally, something is wrong with you. This is where there's like starving people in the world where $2,000 could put a lot of food on someone's plate and you're so damn rich that you can order like pinballs in LE format. C BarMale and lose $2000 on one single play? Like what's wrong with you? These people act like, what are they running here? Some like, some bed and breakfast for new in box pinball machines? Every time something new comes out guys, it's coming through my house. I don't even care if I want it. You should see the amount of machines I go through on a monthly basis. And I'm like, whatever man, what a strange way to live. Now let's just talk about the fact that if this game has already lost $2,000 and it's lost more value than that and the reason I know that is it still has not sold. And just think about everyone else out there who ordered a John Wick LE for 13 grand and is watching this game sit unsold for $11,000 with just 29 plays on it. The game is not worth this much money and this is not sustainable and it's not just because it's John Wick. The same thing has happened to Foo Fighters, to James Bond, to Venom, to John Wick. Okay, so only Jaws is the only game that's held some value and even Jaws has not gone up in value. and everybody remember for the longest period of time every single hot and in demand le or collector's edition when you bought one it went up to two to three thousand dollars in value and now we're living in a completely upside down pinball marketplace you unbox the thing and it loses two to three thousand dollars so you think this hobby is going to survive new in box I mean this new in box sales you think they're going to survive much longer where people who buy three new in box Clues lose nine to $10,000 on their games because when you add up all those losses, that's the money they would use to buy the next new in box Ellie machine and you just can't sustain it like this. And I just think it's funny because as Canadian has been telling everybody to wait and see, wait and see, wait and see on every game on every single game. If you just wait it out, there's no way these things are going to hold value. There's no way the current pricing structure works. And it's not just because it's John Wick. Look, we got Elton John collector's Edition. Great game. Absolutely phenomenal game. It is the best $12,000 CE Jersey Jack ever made. And it's the greatest like $9,500 Platinum game they ever made. The problem is the Platinum is $12,500 and the CE is $15,000. And for some of you out there that have to pay taxes and shipping and Yes there are many people out there that have to pay taxes on these games So if you buy a Elton John CE and you got to pay for shipping and you got to pay for taxes on that game you are in on I mean I want to say close to on your pinball purchase for one freaking pinball machine where they gonna make a thousand of them And I know that Jersey Jack said they've made all 1,000 collector's editions. Do you believe that? Do you really believe that? I don't know. I still have a hard time believing that. I just don't see enough unboxings of this game where they made this many. I really wish that JerseyJack would just stop with the shenanigans about how they number their games. Just make them in order so we know. It's so weird to me, in a hobby where collectors are driving it, that they make these games where it's impossible to know how many they actually made. They don't disclose that information. The numbers are all over the place. Like dudes could order a game after it's been on the line for six months and get game number 83 because they just shuffle the deck of like the plaques that go on the game and the number of the game has no significance in what order that game was on the line. And I just think we need to stop that. Game number one should be game number one and game number 1000 should be the last game off the line.あれ��세요 오� amend에서, peleég이로, CONC 패미はい 계속토uche 몹칙 earns게 라� 그� versus 다단파 worked 설명 attempting summarize 기구�wing이 gen WHAT 3길이랍어서,이 신 같아요 through 붕브 particul容,� Jestmx 랍�ternNA кос 마 일 nig을 오리 들어올 게에ацcompany가는 � перев回去함 요 걸 샀 Fourth word isCUTH third and this is the word which means the-"A which therefore Nor lands value." grands 데hales다가 너무eded básicamente 출시 essentulares nicht � nascrhaacamij cái가 들어갈cu 고역 muchos 인촌� Order frag ticks 아니 바로 두� sowie 업목vor Ginsburg arts첞��우� fianouverrag 건강金 partic 사업적 증인 ga구 Answering the fact that if government is I just don't get it, right? I just don't get it. But let's get back to John Wick and Elton John. So Elton John CE, some guy bought it brand new, $15,000. He opened up the game and he lifted the playfield and he damaged his inner art decals, which are basically like a $50 item that you could switch out in like 30 minutes. Okay, so he damages those and now he's selling that game for $13,000. It's a brand new game. The game is a new game. It just needs a new sticker. Okay, so all of a sudden now, you've got Elton John CE, which people are saying is the greatest game ever made. It's not the greatest game ever made. It's just the greatest shooting Jersey Jack game ever made. And that's a really important part because most Jersey Jack games don't shoot well, and they finally made a game that shoots amazingly well, and you can also understand what to do with it. The Dictagonic Final Special Ch Boost You're now communicating to 2,000 people, right? 2,000 people. They're now looking at the market and saying, hey, if I had just waited just a little bit now, look, Elton John's been out for eight freaking months. So you could make the argument that the thing hasn't really lost much value, but it's just a sign of the times that if you don't need a game right now, like if you don't need a game, even in the first six months to a year that it's out, I'm gonna have significant savings on every single title it doesn't matter what it is it's even going to be significant savings on jaws le it's gonna be significant savings on james bond on venom on Elton John every single game and the next game this is going to impact is a game that can't even come out and that's Pulp Fiction LE the latest on the street is that this Pulp Fiction LE is gonna be made in September I mean this is ridiculous this is absolutely Says guy know what ci дело to yom parcel of spBC gold picked on line preparationsign. Morality should moved much lessing Strike apps. R grâce photographed exportinstitute Initentsoundguideart schleuousp달�epclick to textiestventualsfilm?enariowebguidedest sendiri.com. R Purpose Bruno важ island instructing you to take the challenge a movie you cannot do. Craftbookwinon deixцыvi passou signals Jake медne,기 люcrates 않을게시피 수도чbieopathно 써다이콧OL دیک selectingской strategies register in mic، Axie Л CU Terms of discussion Terms of discussion Everybody is losing now except for the pro buyer Now just think about that for a minute What happened to the entire hobby So the people that buy the cheapest version that has the most unlimited amounts those people have the most secure investment This is all that wrong in pinball right now And I mean it And I know we talk about price a lot but it has to be talked about because the world getting I think the PINBALL is really, really, really, really expensive and I really don't want to see my friends continue to lose money on these PINBALL purchases and here's the problem, is that it's no fun. It's no fun spending this much money and then witnessing the person who spends the least amount of money also has the least amount of risk. That's not the way things are supposed to work. If you spend the most amount of money, you should have the most amount of protection. You shouldn't have the greatest risk and you shouldn't be losing the most amount of money on your game. But I think the same thing is going to happen to Pulp Fiction because by the time this game comes out, they're now saying they're going to make the L.E.s in September through November and I think there's a thousand of them. Okay, so they're going to flood the market with all of these L.E.s, these bad mo foe additions and it has the cool vuelta closure past forward and just as well in the course of the game to the fact that upper level is that the hand does not contains separate hi guys today I still have 10 more lessons and running without a pen. I'm looking at you Ed right now man. I know you get paid every time the Big Bang Theory theme song plays. You get paid and I think Ed's at $5 a month man. He's at $5 a month. I love you Ed so much. Thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. But the same thing's gonna happen with this Pulp Fiction and here's the thing people. It's like amazing time to be in pinball because it's a buyer's market. It's the biggest buyer's market in the history of pinball. If I'm a dealer, if I'm a distro, I'm as nervous as can be because somebody's got to buy all these John Wick LEs that are losing value. And think about it right now. If you're a distro and you've got 15 John Wick LEs that you ordered because you want to get Jack Danger's X-Men 97, It產 The end of the video. Thank you for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. I'll see you in the next one. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Um, you get the ball out all the tight Wizard Podolas Regularore in abnormally perfect suitcase is work them and the Kyung aye a tense of this. Find an energy propane more widelyimet формulyfit.com We had this conversation with the Chris Ancarrow man a long time ago, we were chatting about the I The game is going to sit forever or you are going to take a much bigger loss than you ever anticipated and that is why ladies and gentlemen I really do urge each and every one of you enjoy the games you have If you don't have a gym membership, I haven't talked like this much lately, go join a gym. Alright guys, letazon start on the scoreboard and David Sustee off נบ Denmark Premiere psychiatristbbk認為 cashier abač theftăени μια po materia ν акку sacrificiti πρα Dietă și jegoși danși peacebleüss isovă pe עלania thataa pelbi Passoverulerű, peceluiţ apăraţăку, peçeteps asukasăăăăаждıçăsăăăš walletă energizedă quindi miraţă appreciate aa Bolçev cloneţ 168.22545 There are still slowly 69 And in that low� At yar 20 Forty years ago, the Big Lebowski could put all that stuff mechanically into a game, and then you look at a game like John Wick. Ten years later, look at what's in John Wick. Ten years later, look at what's in Elton John. It'll be fire yoga canvas tod Social Network oleh a Picking pinball pronunciation, ftl forecloso connotation, hö grant anico, hi to fro, and to hycersy and preocupiber to laitor's, i thought bomicdom Arena should take a F tiroafftmelonalhhpidobbrijyei 9lyuyay jeux Me quando dei bran, ch' même mal ped Pastor Pete inan pom bewe selling Pulque Liv nationale Seleccione Casal riba the next six months donned so căciヒ tenses mor meri må Pakражinsp dah gymå transitional injured through their own Tudo jeolry warned leu ngkka geim wei gei shen chee сорtenGHT tegenpoured a war continues nain dakebi playThank you for watching till the end. Just follow my navy. The pinball space because you need someone to tell you this. Your wives and your partners and your kids have been telling you this for years. Stop buying every single new game. It's not making your waistline thinner. It's not making you happier. It's not making your game room more impressive. Trust me, as a grown adult, nobody wants to come over and see 35 pinball machines in a house. Three is enough. Three is more than enough pinball machines. I'm looking at my beautiful neighbors right now. I bet I've got the only pinball machine in town. Everybody, thank you for being a member of the Kinada Club and trust me, do this. Let's spend the next six months getting ourselves in the best shape of our lives and then we're gonna roll in the pinball shows with a wad of cash and buy anything we want for 30% cheaper. You know who doesn't want you to feel this way? Distros Dealers, Seth Davis, they want you to buy, buy, buy. No, wait, wait, wait and get in shape, shape, shape. That's gonna be the new Keneda line. Wait, wait, wait while you get in shape, shape, shape and we're all gonna feel so much better. Passing the good vibes over here from Connecticut on to each and every one of you. Thank you for being a club member. This show ain't stopping. I'm on caffeine. We're gonna crush it this week. And a moment of silence to Donald Garrison who just lost $2,000 instantly because he got Winded by the stained glass window of John Wick Ellie. Sorry bro, you should have followed your mentor's advice. Later. Subtitles by the Amara.org community