Saturday Morning Spectacular - December 21

Kaneda Pinball Podcasts YouTube Lives·video·1h 24m·analyzed·Dec 22, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.039

TL;DR

Kaneda covers Stern's 2025 roadmap, D&D/King Kong expectations, JJP criticisms, and Spooky's brand success.

Summary

Kaneda discusses pinball industry developments on Saturday Morning Spectacular, including Stern's upcoming Dungeons & Dragons and King Kong releases, expectations for Spike 3 platform, criticism of Jersey Jack's Avatar and Pirates code delays, American Pinball's struggles, and praise for Spooky Pinball's brand-building approach and community engagement. He also reveals exclusive information about Stern acquiring a Super Mario Bros license.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball has acquired the license for Super Mario Brothers
medium confidence · Kaneda states this as exclusive information from 'very good sources in the belly of Chicago,' but acknowledges it as rumor-level intel rather than official announcement
Dungeons & Dragons will have only 500 Limited Edition units, driving FOMO
high confidence · Kaneda states he was 'absolutely shocked if Dungeons & Dragons offers more than 500 LEs' based on patterns, expressed with high certainty
Spike 3 is primarily a power source and component upgrade, not a major visual/screen innovation
high confidence · Kaneda claims to have been told directly by 'senior, senior brass at Stern Pinball' to 'curb enthusiasm' around Spike 3 expectations
Stern needs to curb expectations about Spike 3 launching with major King Kong innovation
high confidence · Direct attribution to Stern leadership communication to Kaneda
X-Men Pro is nearly as good as X-Men LE despite half the price, creating sales problems for Stern
high confidence · Kaneda's opinion based on game analysis and concern about three-tier pricing model sustainability
Pirates wizard mode took six years to complete and is 'pathetic'
high confidence · Factual statement about Pirates wizard mode reaching completion after six years development
Avatar is 'Dead on Arrival' and Collector's Edition will follow Godfather's fate
medium confidence · Kaneda's strong opinion based on game analysis; prediction about CE sales trajectory
American Pinball made poor decisions that put them in uncompetitive position
medium confidence · Kaneda's assessment after Loser Kid interview with David Fix revealed organizational issues
Spooky has built a powerful brand beyond just product quality
high confidence · Kaneda's direct observation of community reception and company culture

Notable Quotes

“I've been told by the senior, senior brass at Stern Pinball that everybody should just, like, sort of curb their enthusiasm around what they expect from Spike Three as a thing.”
Kaneda @ ~13:00 — Direct insider information about Stern leadership's messaging on Spike 3 expectations management
“I'm here to tell you right now: I heard Stern Pinball has the license for Super Mario Brothers. So you start to think about that for a minute, right? Maybe they have Pokemon and Super Mario.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Exclusive rumor/leak about major Nintendo IP acquisition by Stern, framed as holiday gift to audience
“Avatar is Dead on Arrival. Like, it's Dead on Arrival. Like, if you bought one — she's beautiful, shirt's pretty. That's not gonna have any impact on creating new demand.”
Kaneda @ ~30:00 — Strong negative verdict on Jersey Jack's Avatar, predicting collector failure similar to Godfather
“I don't like the theme still, but I look at the way this game is sort of landing in the community and I look at their culture and I look at their sort of the way they carry themselves — I feel the vibes, and I feel the energy.”
Kaneda @ ~65:00 — Kaneda's explanation of why Spooky succeeds despite potential product issues—brand and culture matter more than theme
“Stern Pinball is in big trouble, people, if they make a $6,500 Pro machine as good as a $11,000 LE.”
Kaneda @ ~17:30 — Critical assessment of Stern's three-tier pricing model sustainability and profit margin problems
“What you're going to see is more of a power source and more internal beefing up of components that will allow Stern Pinball to put more into the games so that is where your excitement should lie.”
Kaneda @ ~13:30 — Explanation of Spike 3's actual function vs. community expectations, from Stern leadership
“I think we've already seen some of Spike 3 in Metallica Remastered. We're going to see more of it. I also think you're going to see a rolling out of Spike 3 components throughout the year.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Christopher FranchipersonStern PinballcompanyDungeons & Dragons: The Tyrant's Eyegame King Konggame Spike 3product X-Mengame

Signals

?
business_signal: American Pinball experiencing significant organizational turmoil with multiple staff layoffs under Mukesh accountability measures
medium · Kaneda references Loser Kid interview with David Fix revealing unclear organizational status; notes long list of people let go; predicts company running out of time against competitive releases
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sentiment_shift: Spooky Pinball has successfully built brand loyalty and positive community vibes transcending product issues; becoming community home base
high · Kaneda praises company culture, community engagement, and brand-building; notes Bug/Luke active on Patreon; reports Spooky making merchandise with Patreon community; positions brand as more important than theme
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design_philosophy: Jersey Jack's muted clip philosophy across multiple games (Avatar, Pirates, Wonka) reflects systemic coding choice undermining theme integration
high · Kaneda extensively criticizes JJP's approach; contrasts with Star Wars; makes ultimatum about Harry Potter voice actors; calls Pirates worst theme integration in pinball history
?
event_signal: Twippies Awards 'favorite pinball artist' category successfully reinstated after Kaneda's advocacy; still concerns about removal of other manufacturer categories
high · Kaneda reports successful reinstatement with Colin/Jamie; notes debate about animations, callouts, sound, toys/mechs, theme integration categories that remain removed
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market_signal: Inventory glut and price sustainability crisis: Stern pumping thousands of games monthly with unclear market absorption; three-tier model creating Pro/LE value compression

Transcript

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0:01

morning spectacular oh all right let's see what we got going on here we got we got sound which is good we're now G to share this link get some people in the house and then talk some pinball I know everyone's like where is it he's starting late I started late today because I went to the gym and it snowed here in rowon and so we had a beautiful really beautiful morning with Killian getting his snow outfit on and he's having a blast so I don't I don't even if I have to keep telling everybody I'm at the point now where if I have to tell you to join I'm done people updates they should just join it is like it is real easy to know where we're at right now uh doing our Saturday morning spectacular here on YouTube I'm sure some people have figured this out what's up Tony Jeremy Charles is in the house let's put this on Facebook right now got a lot of fun stuff to talk about world of pinball happy holidays everybody I love this time of year um it is such a nice time and it is like a time when we all should just give a tremendous amount of thanks to uh to being alive I mean that it's too easy to get lost in all the all the BS of the world it's just too easy you you start to live in your own head too much you start to forget what a miracle it is just to be on a planet circling the sun hurling through space at like 10,000 miles an hour how's everybody doing welcome to the Saturday morning spectacular do I need to even let these people on patreon know I mean it's at the point now where they should just know to go right like let's just make a post real quick quick just in case they need they need to have a reminder we live we live right now all right oh did I not I just messed that up hold

2:23

on we live right now it's going to be here every Saturday morning I know I did a few on Facebook um I know I did a few like when I was traveling in the old medium but this is this is where we're going to do it and so let's give a shout out to Mr Christopher French is's in the house we've got little Everett in the house we've got sad boy we've got Robert Castle how's everybody doing should we record this let's hit record let's just let's give the kids what they want let's see what this does um main output all all right here we go we're recording I'm trying a new mixer let's see how this sounds in this audacity thing um maybe it sounds better than it would if I was recording it on Audacity uh so we'll see what happens who knows who knows you get more than your money is worth on canus pinball podcast everybody uh we we're gonna go around the horn today there's a lot happening in pinball and it's almost like there's nothing happening at the same time Mr franie I'm happy to report that favorite pinball AR artist will be returning to this year's tppy Awards so Canad pinball podcast was successful in getting that reinstated it was a it's crazy that I had to even do that but it is back it is going to be a category I spoke to Colin I spoke to Jamie uh the one thing is this the one thing is this they still I think they still removed too many of the manufacturer categories and you know Colin was kind of like if you were going to add a couple more back in which would you do right and and he's like on top of artist and you know you got animations you got call outs you got sound you got toys and mechs you got theme versus theme integration so it was like I don't know it it's hard to say which two when I think there was about four or five categories that should all have been put back but it is what it is this chat is worth $5 a loan of course it is I can't tell you how expensive the world is becoming I I me I went to go get gas it's like 490 a gallon one gallon of gas or Canad pinball podcast just so you know um the thing is this I um I told this to Colin that Evil Dead should be eligible because the art is out and I don't understand why a game that's been fully revealed is ineligible for art if it comes because spooky always releases games this time of year and starts shipping in January and I just think it's silly to not make it eligible because then every single spooky machine is not going to be eligible when the iron is hot right hot off the press we get to see this artwork why would that not be eligible so let's go around the horn let's go around the horn let's talk about what's going on in pinball so look I I love that I love that Carrie is like I don't know why people think King Kong is next Carrie look look it's it's funny to me that I always feel like Carrie has to make these a little bit snarky Snipes at Canada uh the reason why I was I was told by a few people that King Kong might be next because of the delay uh with Dungeons and Dragons major mechanism but who told you it was Dungeons and Dragons in the first place canus spinball podcast and in the end it doesn't really matter we know it's going to be D and D and King Kong as the next two Stern games with most likely maybe another remaster of something so I don't really care you know what I'm saying I don't want Dungeons and Dragons I don't want it to be next I don't think Dungeons and Dragons is going to sell very well I also don't really think people understand to this day what Spike 3 is it's not going to be this humongous difference I don't even think Spike 3 I don't even know if it's going to be a bigger screen to be honest now that I think about it it might just be a better screen but not bigger and I I really do think people are going to be a little bit disappointed I I look I've been told I'm just gonna say this straight up I've been told by the senior senior brass B Stern Pinball that everybody should just like sort of curb their enthusiasm around what they expect from Spike three as a thing that you're not going to see some like major platform Innovation or some major major like visual difference what you're going to see is more uh of a power source and more internal beefing up of components that will allow Stern Pinball to to put more into the games so that is where your excitement should lie I don't think you know everyone's like well Spike 3 is gonna launch with some major King Kong moment and and I think that is uh that is probably not going to be the way it works I think we've already seen some of Spike 3 in in uh Metallica remastered we're going to see more of it I also think you're going to see a rolling out of Spike 3 components throughout the year it's not all going to come at once so I I just think everyone needs to realize that the the problem with Dungeons and Dragons right now I I fully expect there to be only 500 D and D Lees I I I absolutely would be shocked if Dungeons and Dragons offers more than 500 L's I think even at that it's gonna do a much better job of creating fomo right because if you go back to this whole like half of them go overseas and remember if Stern cuts the Le number in half they haven't cut in half their dealer and distro list so they have so many more people that are now selling their product than ever before so I expect the sell through of a 500 Le a lotman to be instantaneous so they will sell through every single Dungeons and Dragons on day one whether or not consumers will buy everyone is up in the air uh the the spooky boners man someone's going to have to explain this thing to me because I've been um I mean my patreon chat has turned into nothing but spooky boner images uh funny stuff I I I I absolutely love that we've become sort of home base and Ground Zero for spooky boners but uh I don't know like I don't know the context if someone could write here like how what's the origins of that uh I I would be great I would love a spooky boner hat I would love it I would I will wear it with pride I would love a spooky boner sweatshirt and t-shirt you get me those anything spooky boner I'll wear it uh well we're gonna get to Spooky we're gonna get to Spooky in a little bit all right so fully expect Dungeons and Dragons gang it's coming out in two weeks the game is going to be at CES January 7th uh you know car's update was fun because he's like I'm being told the pro is the way to go on this game and the pro is going to have so much value uh Stern Pinball is in big trouble people if they make a $6,500 pro machine as good as a $113,000 Le I don't think there's G to be uh a lot of sales success if you look down at a pro and it's half the price of an Le I think that's going to be a big issue for stern I think what's happening with Stern is they're designing these games now where they can't remove the major stuff from the game and still have the game function properly and I think that's gonna you know that's why like if you look at an X-Men Pro you you really don't feel like you're missing out that much uh versus an X-Men Le and definitely doesn't feel like you get twice the game in the Le now speaking of X-Men it seems to be and I I don't know if this is confirmed or not or there seems to just be this rumor that Jack danger is sort of kind of kind of over it that he sort of wants nothing more to be done with this game I can't imagine that is true Jack does not strike me as a guy that would ever especially publicly uh abandon ship on his own creation I I I don't see him as a individual who quits I I think he is extremely frustrated with the code development of his title and I think he knows that Stern is a you know Stern has this sort of like well if it's not a hit move on to the next so I I I'm a little bit worried that he's never gonna get the support for this game now this game kind of blows like everyone everyone is really uh feeling bad because the the game's art package the design the toys remember when X-Men launched like it it had a great launch and and Weiss's code really became the Achilles heel and then also it's not just Weiss's fault a lot of the mechanical quirkiness of the game really did get people down I think over time I I I don't ever think this game is g to be uh a hit hit I think we will see this game end up in a very similar fashion to Avengers so that is what I believe X-Men will become it'll always become a really unique game to have in a lineup it'll never be sort of the The game everyone gushes about it it's not going to end up in the top 30 on pinside it's not going to be uh you know a game that goes up in any value it it'll just be another Stern Marvel game that is fun cuz all pinballs fun uh but I don't think it's going to reach a level that like Foo Fighters got to I I think it's going to just kind of be you know one of these like B minus games when you add it all up so that is sad to see I think the silver lining in all of that is this I think Jack is pissed I think Jack is mad at what was uh done to him in terms of rushing a game I think he's is a little bit disappointed in the code of the game I think he's angry and what I know about in my industry and in Creative Fields like what he's in uh there's nothing better than an angry creative who's never gonna make that mistake again this is only Jack danger second title I fully expect him to channel that frustration and anger into his third title which I think is going to be uh a is hit I'm going to give you guys a little bit of an exclusive bit of information I've heard I normally do this for my paying customers but it's the holiday and I think given a gift so you heard it here first I'm here to tell you right now I heard Stern Pinball has the license for Super Mario Brothers so you start to think about that for a minute right maybe they have Pokemon and Super Mario maybe they've Inked a few Nintendo deals but I'm hearing from very good sources in the belly of Chicago that Stern Pinball has Super Mario and that is music to everybody's ears the right kind of

Harry Potter will return to widebody and feature complete voice/actor clips or Kaneda is 'done with Jersey Jack Pinball for good'

medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction/ultimatum based on frustration with JJP's muted clip philosophy on past releases

Kaneda @ ~14:30 — Prediction that Spike 3 adoption will be gradual, not tied to single flagship release

“I don't think the pinball hobby as we know it can survive another two years at these prices... The boutiques are going to be fine. But Stern's pumping out a few thousand games every month, like, where do they all go?”

Kaneda @ ~24:30 — Market sustainability concern about inventory glut and pricing—central business challenge for Stern

“What they've built is something far more powerful than just a good pinball machine. They've built a brand. And what people in this hobby just don't understand is how much more important it is for the future of your organization and your products and your customers to build a brand.”

Kaneda @ ~66:30 — Core thesis about Spooky's success: brand/culture outweighs product issues in long-term viability

“I fully expect him to channel that frustration and anger into his third title, which I think is going to be a hit.”

Kaneda @ ~19:30 — Kaneda's optimistic prediction about Jack Danger's future work following X-Men frustrations

Spooky Pinballcompany

high · Kaneda questions where new units go; states X-Men Pro undercuts LE value; predicts hobby cannot survive another two years at current prices; notes boutiques will be fine but Stern facing challenge

personnel_signal: Jack Danger reportedly frustrated with X-Men code development and Stern's 'if not a hit, move on' philosophy

medium · Kaneda notes rumor of Jack being 'over it' but disputes it, arguing he's frustrated but not quitting; predicts this anger will fuel strong third title

product_concern: X-Men game suffered from mechanical design issues and code problems making it feel like B-minus game despite strong launch and art; trajectory toward Avengers-level status, not hit

high · Kaneda analyzes game's great launch becoming undone by Zombie Yeti code and mechanical quirks; predicts it won't reach Top 30 Pinside, won't gain value, will be unique but not beloved

product_strategy: Stern's 2025 release sequence: D&D (Jan 7), King Kong (Apr/May), likely TRON remake, Star Wars (ongoing), Metallica Remastered, Sonic

high · Kaneda outlines timeline directly; D&D confirmed for CES; King Kong timing tied to Comic Con window

rumor_hype: Stern Pinball has acquired Super Mario Bros license; possibly Pokemon as well

medium · Kaneda claims exclusive information from 'very good sources in the belly of Chicago' but frames it as holiday gift intel rather than confirmed fact; acknowledges theme rumor mill tendency

business_signal: Stern deliberately constraining D&D to 500 LE units to restore FOMO after John Wick/Venom LE demand failures

high · Kaneda states expectation of 500 LE max with 'instantaneous sell-through' on day one; explains scarcity math with overseas distribution split

technology_signal: Spike 3 adoption will be gradual with component rollout throughout year, not major visual/screen upgrade at launch

high · Kaneda cites direct communication from Stern leadership telling him to 'curb enthusiasm'; explains platform as power source and component beefing; references Metallica Remastered as early Spike 3 incorporation

licensing_signal: Matrix license likely extremely restrictive with no clips availability; may force muted clip disaster; Star Wars had constraints preventing text overlay on movie footage

medium · Kaneda predicts Matrix will be 'muted clip disaster' based on license difficulty; notes Star Wars had specific constraints on implementation