claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.039
Stern's aggressive 2025 release schedule (Kong, Jaws 50th, Star Wars, Walking Dead) raises dealer inventory concerns.
King Kong LE is the third best-selling LE released in the last decade
medium confidence · Josh states his understanding based on quick sellout of LE units to distributors
Godzilla is the best-selling LCD Stern game, possibly best-selling machine of all time
medium confidence · Scott notes 'my understanding is it is the best-selling LCD Stern' and compares dominance to Addams Family/Twilight Zone
Jaws 50th Anniversary rumored for July release with limited run (~500 units)
medium confidence · Josh: 'Jaws 50th could be coming out in July' based on rumor; educated guess on production volume
John Borg is designing both Star Wars and Walking Dead titles with dual-title release within 1-2 months
medium confidence · Scott's understanding: 'he's doing double duty. He's doing the Star Wars title and the Walking Dead'
Ray Day is the heir apparent to Lyman Sheets on code design
low confidence · Josh's opinion: 'Ray Day is the heir apparent to Lyman on code' based on Metallica and Foo Fighters work
Keith Elwin designs sell approximately 50% of Stern games
medium confidence · Scott: 'he sells easily 50% of the Stern games' based on market observation
Jersey Jack Pinball is making Harry Potter in Pro, Premium, and Arcade tiers without hard LE limits
medium confidence · Discussion of JJP's three-tier strategy mimicking Stern's model; production continues until shut down
Pinball Brothers' Predator is an original design, not an Alien retheme
high confidence · Official announcement: 'It's official. Predator's coming from Pinball Brothers. No, this is not a retheme of Alien'
“Kong is like the third best-selling LE that has released in the last decade. Like I can see that it has – just the LEs have went out the door. They're all gone.”
Josh @ early discussion — Establishes King Kong's market performance and distributor inventory pressure
“I would argue let someone else try. Okay, Dwight, by the way, is the most passionate person you will ever meet in pinball. Okay, I'll put it this way. If you are into Dungeons & Dragons, you want Dwight as the dungeon master.”
Josh @ mid-episode — Character assessment of Dwight Sullivan's design philosophy and passion
“Ray Day is the heir apparent to Lyman on code, okay? And this is me 100% respecting Lyman's legacy, respecting everything Lyman has done.”
Josh @ code discussion — Succession narrative for legendary code designer Lyman Sheets
“I think it's a terrible decision. I think it puts way too much pressure back on distributors and dealers to take more product when the product that they have right now may or may not be selling.”
Josh @ Kong vs Jaws discussion — Direct industry concern about rapid LE releases and dealer inventory saturation
“They're not selling a lot, but it's still a great game... He gave me very fair market value. He's taking care of shipping. I don't know how he's going to make money, but hey, that's his deal, not ours.”
Scott @ opening segment — Secondary market weakness for Foo Fighters despite game quality; dealer economics pressure
“The Kong figure is awesome. But as I sat down and really evaluated the game, the difference between the two, the Kong's not really much of a game-changing feature, right?”
Scott @ Kong analysis — Premium tier value proposition questioned; toy features don't justify price delta
“When Star Wars came out, it didn't hit my expectations on what I wanted in the game. Like, I remember going over to my friend's house, we unboxed the LE, and it was the same time that I was playing his Attack from Mars LE downstairs. And I played Star Wars a few games, and I said, I want to go down and play Attack from Mars.”
business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball considering unlimited production model for Harry Potter CEs; market demand drives production rather than scarcity strategy
medium · Josh: 'if they have a potential of selling 5,000 CEs of Harry Potter, they should... you can order it up to a certain date, and we will make that many. That is a smart move.'
sentiment_shift: Star Wars Pinball failed to meet player expectations despite monster license; direct secondary market rejection (players preferred Attack from Mars over Star Wars)
medium · Josh: 'When Star Wars came out, it didn't hit my expectations... I played Star Wars a few games, and I said, I want to go down and play Attack from Mars.'
design_philosophy: Predator should embrace 1980s retro design aesthetic (similar to Pulp Fiction's '70s vibe or Congo) rather than modern design; question of developer self-awareness on era authenticity
low · Scott: 'they should have had kind of an '80s, like an '80s Bally Williams game... like Congo, where it's a little more retro... I'm not sure the Pinball Brothers are self-aware enough to do that though.'
market_signal: Ray Day positioned as heir apparent to legendary Lyman Sheets for code design; Metallica and Foo Fighters work cited as evidence of elite status
medium · Josh: 'Ray Day is the heir apparent to Lyman on code... And Ray Day has the chops to take it to Lyman level and maybe continue along that path.'
licensing_signal: Jersey Jack's extreme caution on Harry Potter announcements driven by aggressive licensing oversight; Bond experience cited as precedent for delayed approvals
groq_whisper · $0.147
Josh @ late episode — Recent Star Wars game received mixed reception despite monster license; theme translation challenge
“People are like, this is going to sell more than Kong, 10 to 1, and all this stuff. But then it's like they can't produce at scale like Stern does. It's going to be a while. And people are still getting their Avatars now.”
Josh @ Harry Potter discussion — JJP production capacity concerns and Avatar fulfillment delays affecting hype
“I like the presentation better. Now you can still do a really good job with the Premium and adding the stuff on and still getting a really close representation of it, but there is the – it's kind of like Cactus Canyon without the topper.”
Josh @ LE vs Premium discussion — LE differentiation strategy and topper impact on perceived value
“They don't know it's better than Alien. Um, I just – we know people that have seen this design. They're telling us it's better than Alien. It's better than Queen.”
Josh @ Predator reveal — Leaked insider feedback on Predator design quality vs Alien/Queen comparisons
medium · Josh: 'we know that there are licensing constraints... once you start announcing things, it typically triggers stuff in a licensing agreement... Stern got into a lot of challenging situations with Bond because Bond was notoriously a challenging license.'
market_signal: Godzilla identified as best-selling LCD Stern, possibly best-selling machine ever; dominance comparable to Addams Family/Twilight Zone (30-year gap)
medium · Scott: 'my understanding is it is the best-selling LCD Stern'... Josh: 'the last time a single game dominated an era was like Addams Family or Twilight Zone, right?'
personnel_signal: John Borg assigned to dual-title design (Star Wars + Walking Dead) with rapid release timeline; raises capacity/quality concerns
medium · Scott: 'he's doing double duty. He's doing the Star Wars title and the Walking Dead. So he'll have two titles released within a month or two of each other.'
market_signal: Three-tier LE/Premium/Pro model creating unsustainable dealer inventory with rapid releases; Kong dealers sitting on heavy stock facing immediate Jaws 50th competition
high · Josh: 'You have plenty of distributors and dealers who bought plenty of stock on King Kong, right? And they're sitting on this stock... All of a sudden you release a Godzilla 50th or a Jaws 50th... you're essentially pitting Elwin versus Elwin.'
announcement: Pinball Brothers officially announces Predator as original design (not Alien retheme); insider feedback suggests competitive quality with Alien/Queen
high · 'It's official. Predator's coming from Pinball Brothers. No, this is not a retheme of Alien... people that have seen this design. They're telling us it's better than Alien. It's better than Queen.'
product_strategy: Harry Potter rumored delayed but Naps Arcade corrected within hours; still on track per official sources
high · Josh: 'Jersey Jack Pinball delayed Harry Potter. Supposedly, that's the rumor. Yeah. And not even two hours ago, Naps Arcade said never mind – apparently they're still on track.'
product_concern: D&D: Tyrant's Eye has game-crashing bugs at level 3 of dungeon crawl requiring fixes; despite Dwight's passion, execution issues persist
high · Josh: 'the big thing right now is in D&D, if you get to level three in the dungeon crawling, and you get a specific creature, it crashes the whole game. It resets.'
rumor_hype: Star Wars pinball possibly themed to Andor (newer series) rather than Original Trilogy or Prequel; based on show ratings and target demographic fit
low · Josh: 'I heard on the Pinball Show they talked about was the Prequel Trilogy. I don't think it is... And I think it's Andor because if you look at Mandalorian, Mandalorian came out in season two... Andor, while it may not be as huge... it is the best [reviewed]... best reviews from the generation that's buying pinball machines.'