Episode 1139: "Has Stern Experienced 3 Strikes in a Row?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 26s·analyzed·Sep 23, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Stern faces existential crisis after three consecutive underwhelming releases despite industry-leading manufacturing capacity.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Stern Pinball has suffered three consecutive game misses (Dungeons & Dragons, King Kong, Star Wars: Fall of the Empire), creating a crisis that threatens the company's viability at current $13,000+ price points. He contrasts Stern's manufacturing scale with their inability to create compelling games, warns of potential production capacity issues for smaller manufacturers like Pedretti Gaming and Pinball Brothers, and calls for Stern to reduce output to two annual cornerstone releases with genuine innovation rather than corner-cutting across tier variants.

Key Claims

Stern has released three games in a row that have not been big hits: Dungeons & Dragons, King Kong, and Star Wars: Fall of the Empire, with Star Wars drawing more disappointment than the previous two
high confidence · Kaneda's opening framing based on feedback he's reading from the community after RMPE
Star Wars: Fall of the Empire is being called mediocre at best, with feedback that it's underwhelming and lacks anything magical, though some call it an 'operator's dream'
high confidence · Kaneda citing community reviews and feedback he's reading
Stern's current business model is unsustainable at modern $13,000+ price points because they need thousands of units to sell to justify their manufacturing scale, whereas boutique manufacturers like Spooky only need ~1,000 units
high confidence · Kaneda's economic analysis of supply/demand dynamics
Star Wars LE machines will drop to $10,000 secondary market prices within a couple of months, not even six months
medium confidence · Kaneda's market prediction based on recent pricing patterns
Pinball Brothers and Pedretti Gaming are financially intertwined through a shared factory arrangement in Italy and cannot absorb losses from Predator (sold <300 units) and Funhouse low demand
medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on corporate structure based on recent production failures
The Walking Dead Remastered will not add mechanical improvements despite Spike 3 platform capabilities; it will only change sculpts and add lighting
medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'what I heard' about Walking Dead—unconfirmed insider information
Star Wars Pro and Star Wars Premium/LE use the same exact playfield, despite LE costing $13,000+ vs $6,000 for Pro
high confidence · Kaneda noting inconsistency: Yoda Force grab artwork present on Pro but mechanic only active on Premium/LE
Stern has not exceeded community expectations in recent years; they used to consistently nail game releases

Notable Quotes

“The overwhelming feedback as I read people give their reviews is that it's just underwhelming. There's nothing in it that's really magical.”
Kaneda @ ~2:30 — Central claim about Star Wars reception; summarizes community sentiment
“They needed a pin that was going to make a lot of us open up our wallets and buy the game. Now I'm starting to get nervous for Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00 — Explicit statement of concern about Stern's market viability
“Nobody wants Stern Pinball to fail, but nobody has done this to Stern other than themselves.”
Kaneda @ ~4:00 — Frames Stern's problems as self-inflicted, not external market forces
“When they really need a hit, when they really need to justify the modern pricing of pinball, they've built the big factory. They can make hundreds of games a week. They just don't have the bangers.”
Kaneda @ ~5:30 — Core paradox: manufacturing capacity without creative output
“Spooky Pinball only needs there to be a thousand people who want a Beetlejuice and they're doing just fine... The problem now for Stern is no matter what the title is, if it's a cornerstone, they need thousands of people to want it.”
Kaneda @ ~9:30 — Explains structural mismatch between Stern's scale and market demand
“Your playfield on your $13,000 game should be nicer than your playfield on your $6,000 game, but they don't want to make those changes.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Specific criticism of tier differentiation strategy on Star Wars
“Our money is talking. The lack of us spending money on your recent offerings Stern is us telling you: It's not that we want you to go out of business, but you need to listen to us more.”
Kaneda @ ~17:30 — Frames consumer behavior as feedback mechanism
“When was the last time they actually exceeded our expectations?”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyStar Wars: Fall of the Empiregame Dungeons & Dragons: The Tyrant's Eyegame King Konggame The Walking Dead Remasteredgame BeetlejuicegameTransformers (G1)game

Signals

?
business_signal: Pedretti Gaming and Pinball Brothers facing existential production viability crisis; Predator failure (<300 units sold) combined with tariff pressures may force outsourcing/cancellation of Big Bang Bar remake
medium · Kaneda cites rumors: 'there is a possibility that we are not going to see Big Bang Bar at Pinball Expo... they can't absorb the low volume of demand for Funhouse and the extraordinarily low demand for Predator'
?
event_signal: Pinball Expo (3 weeks away) positioned as critical test: Walking Dead Remastered reveal and Beetlejuice teaser expected; potential last opportunity for Stern to rebuild confidence
high · Kaneda's framing: 'The main thing is going to be how to Stern repair what is now three misses in a row... Pinball Expo is in just a couple weeks' and expectation-setting for revelation
?
competitive_signal: Jersey Jack (Sonic the Hedgehog, Harry Potter) and Spooky (Beetlejuice) positioned as thriving alternatives to Stern; boutique manufacturers increasingly attractive despite smaller scale
medium · Kaneda: 'There's a few companies that are doing great right now. They're in the driver's seat. Jersey Jack is one of them... a lot of the boutique pinball machines are starting to look a lot more attractive'
?
design_philosophy: Star Wars playfield design methodology criticized: identical Pro/Premium/LE playfields despite $7,000 price gap suggests cost-cutting incompatible with tier differentiation promises
high · Kaneda's direct observation and criticism: 'they are using, I think, the same exact playfield on Star Wars Pro as they are on Star Wars Premium and LE... Your playfield on your $13,000 game should be nicer than your playfield on your $6,000 game'

Topics

Stern Pinball's recent game quality and market receptionprimaryUnsustainable pricing model ($13,000+ cornerstone games) vs. manufacturing scale mismatchprimaryComparison of business models: Stern (high volume) vs. boutique manufacturers (niche scale)primaryTier differentiation strategy (Pro/Premium/LE) and playfield consistency concernsprimaryUpcoming Stern releases (Walking Dead Remastered, Beetlejuice, Transformers) and market expectationssecondaryFinancial distress at Pinball Brothers/Pedretti Gaming and potential production disruptionssecondaryJersey Jack and Spooky positioning as stronger manufacturers relative to SternsecondarySecondary market depreciation (Star Wars LE to $10k within months)mentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda expresses deep concern about Stern's creative and commercial trajectory, using crisis language ('nervous,' 'panic mode,' 'existential') while simultaneously defending Stern against accusations of intentional failure. Negative about recent releases but not nihilistic—framed as disappointment from high expectations and prior success.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.058

Come on, come on, money for the money. Come on, come on, listen to the money talk. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Canadian Pinball Podcast. We'll see how this show sounds. I'm on my old computer. I left my computer in Queens. I was working out there on something today, but I wanted to get a show up today. We're going to talk about Stern Star Wars Fall of the Empire at the Rocky Mountain Pinball Expo. And now we are getting on the ground in the hands of pinheads. The feedback is rolling in. And just as we all expected, the game is not lighting the pinball world on fire. Now, what does this mean now that Stern Pinball will now have had three games in a row that have not been really big hits. Dungeons and Dragons was not a huge hit. King Kong was not a huge hit. And now we're getting a very lukewarm response to this Star Wars Fall of the Empire. In fact, I think more people are kind of disappointed in this game than probably even King Kong, probably even D&D. I think if you're into D&D, you are probably very satisfied with that pinball machine. But Star Wars is different because our expectations of Star Wars is pretty high. And, you know, we've had Star Wars before. So you're kind of like juggling two things happening at once. High expectations with high fatigue. And then you bring out a game that is kind of getting called mediocre at best. A fan layout. Some of the shots are really tight. Some of it are clunky, but the overwhelming feedback as I read people give their reviews is that it's just underwhelming. There's nothing in it that's really magical. And people keep saying it's an operator's dream, but that's not what Stern needed right now. They did not need an operator's dream. They needed a pin that was going to make a lot of us open up our wallets and buy the game. Now I'm starting to get nervous for Stern Pinball. I don't think they've had three strikes in a row like this in a really long time. And what happens now? The Walking Dead remastered in a month at Pinball Expo. Is that going to save the day? Will that game in all of its full Spike 3 glory win us over? I don't think that's going to be the answer. And I think we're going to see a teaser for Beetlejuice at Expo. I think that's going to start to get people very excited. And so I'm getting worried about Stern. I really am. And I think there's this misconception too, that is out there in the pinball world that we're rooting for Stern to fail. Nobody wants Stern pinball to fail, but nobody has done this to Stern other than themselves. And I do think they need a hard reset. You can't come out in 2025 with a Star Wars game that doesn't really have anything wowing people. Stern's wowed us before many, many times. It's almost unfair. It really is almost unfair because they've released so many good games over the last 10 years and almost everybody else has not. The only problem is all those great Stern games came out years ago when the prices were so much better. And now that the prices are where they are at, sorry gang, if you hear Cassian crying, I have to do this on my old computer, which requires a second monitor because the main monitor on the computer is broken. And so the whole family's downstairs. So if you hear a little bit of crying in the background, it is not your baby. It is mine. And it's not Kaneda's inner monologue about Star Wars, but they released so many great games years ago when the prices were much better. And now when they really need a hit, when they really need to justify the modern pricing of pinball, they've built the big factory. They can make hundreds of games a week. They just don't have the bangers. It's really unfortunate. And everybody else in pinball over the last 10 years, hasn't had as many great games as Stern. They've struggled to manufacture and Stern has carried the entire industry on its back. But now that's no longer the case. They never acquired a single boutique company In fact they let every boutique company survive or fail but now a lot of the boutique pinball machines are starting to look a lot more attractive Now look Stern is not dead They are not going out of business tomorrow, but they need a hit. And I'm worried that The Walking Dead is going to still fatigue us. I'm worried that Star Wars in general were kind of over it I was just watching the Mandalorian movie trailer, and I couldn't be less excited for that movie. It just feels like we've had so much of that with Grogu and the Mandalorian, and it just doesn't feel new. It doesn't feel original. And the stuff they're doing, again, it's like old recycled ideas in At-At, walking on a snowy cliff, falling down. Like that's supposed to make us go, wow, I can't wait to see this. everything's starting to feel fatigued especially in the pinball industry right now and the companies that are really going to get the new in box money are going to be the companies that are thinking a little bit more outside the box giving us more for our money and i'm worried that stern pinball is the greatest pinball company if the goal is to make thousands of games at a good price They can't survive at these prices. It's not sustainable. They can't expect to sell at the volume they need to sell. Remember, they need demand to be one more, one more than they can supply every single month. And when you're making games like Star Wars, that is not the case. Spooky Pinball only needs there to be a thousand people who want a Beetlejuice and they're doing just fine. Barrels of Fun, same thing with like Dune. They need what, like 801 people to want one? Same thing with everybody else out there. You need one more than you can supply. The problem now for Stern is no matter what the title is, if it's a cornerstone, they need thousands of people to want it and to wanna buy it new in box. And if you're looking at the way things are going, Star Wars will be another game in which in just a couple months, not even six months, in a couple months, it's a $10,000 LE. And so that is where we are at. I am looking forward to seeing what their next move is, but I do think they have to be in somewhat of a panic mode because this is not it. So speaking of panic modes, I know I said that there is a possibility, and again, none of this, none of this is confirmed, but there is a possibility that we are not going to see Big Bang Bar at Pinball Expo. Now, it was never confirmed it was going to be there, but the latest I'm hearing, and I said it on my live, I'm hearing that, who knows now? Because you remember, you got to remember, Pinball Brothers and Pedretti Gaming, they are united in that European pinball company, whatever they call it. And both companies recently haven't had much success. And there is no way that these companies can absorb, they can't absorb the low volume of demand for Funhaus and the extraordinarily low demand for Predator. They could not even sell 300 Predators. And now with the tariffs in place, they're going to have a really hard time selling anything. Now, Big Bang Bar is the next game. I've been looking at pictures of it. I've seen video of it. But now if you're Rick at Planetary, you don't really know what the state is. Like, can they afford to make this game if Predator is a flop? And I know it's not a pinball brothers game, but I'm sure both of these companies finances are somewhat intertwined to keep that factory going because isn't it the factory in Italy, right? They both kind of have like a joint deal to make games. But now with where the tariffs are at, it seems to make a lot more sense to maybe have Chicago Gaming Company make these games and not Pedretti and not the facility over there in Italy. So it's about to get really, really weird in pinball. There's a few companies that are doing great right now. They're in the driver's seat. Jersey Jack is one of them. I think Sonic the Hedgehog is going to be great. I think it's going to be one of Steve Ritchie's most fun pins ever. And I think it's going to look phenomenal on their platform. I think Stern Pinball is in big trouble. And I'm starting to feel like they don't even have Pokemon. And I think they might be in big, big trouble if the next game out of Stern Pinball is Elliot Elliot Eismin's Transformers. Again I love Transformers Nobody loves Transformers more than me But the mistake they going to make with Transformers is you don want to make the TV show It not as good as making G1 Transformers the movie I'm not sure they're going to even go down that road. Because the movie would probably be more expensive to do because you have to license the music from Stan Bush. But you want all that music. You want Dare. You want You Got the Touch. You want the Weird Al song, Dare to be Stupid. You want all that instruments of destruction. It's so much better. Can you imagine when you open the Matrix of Leadership and that's the topper? Arise, Rodimus Prime, and you got the touch plays. It's just better. If you do the TV show, it's just so broad. It's not as focused. And, you know, I want Unicron under that glass. I don't know. I'm nervous. I feel like if Stern does G1 Transformers, it might be a lot like how they did Ninja Turtles, and they're going to illustrate it in-house. I'm at the point now where I just don't trust anymore that Stern is going to nail it. They used to kind of always nail it. I feel like they're an organization that needs some new blood, more new blood. I feel like they're an organization that might need new senior, senior leadership to shake it all up. and we'll see what happens. I mean, I would hate to be in charge of managing that ginormous company. It's gonna be tough. And we're almost into October. In November, I think we're gonna get maybe Beetlejuice at the end of November, early December. It's gonna come up really fast. Pinball Expo is in just a couple weeks. It's in like three weeks. I am confirmed, I have booked my travel, I'm going to Expo. So if you are going to Expo, get ready to hang out. Most likely, we are going to be hanging out Thursday night at the Renaissance and Friday night. I am flying back Saturday at like noon. The show breaks down Saturday night. So if you are only going Saturday, we will most likely miss each other unless you want to get coffee in the morning. But I'm looking forward to going to Pinball Expo. I'm looking forward to an absolute drama-free time with everybody. I've unblocked everybody that I blocked like a week and a half ago. I really do feel like everybody was just acting silly and everybody let their emotions get the best of them. And I think everybody would rather just go back to being nice to each other. It's just a better approach for life and for this hobby, okay? So this is where we're at right now in pinball. The main thing is going to be how to Stern repair what is now three misses in a row. Three absolute misses in a row. And people are not even holding back, man. People are pretty brutal. And where are the fanboys now, right? Where's Neil McRae now? Where are the Stern shills? All those people who went to Stern, They played this game. You could see it in the video. They just know it's not great. And we know that Stern is capable of so much more. This company would be better off only doing two cornerstone games a year, but really nailing them, nailing the theme, nailing the magic, only 500 le's only 500 le's and stern those 500 le's need to come exclusively with their own topper and i would also make it so maybe there's a few exclusive modes in those le's a la daft punk multiball you need to stop stern we see through it all now you can't cut corners you know it's so funny. It's like they cut corners so much that they are using, I think, the same exact play field on Star Wars Pro as they are on Star Wars Premium and LE. But it doesn't make sense because Yoda does not force grab the ball on the pro machine. And yet you still have the artwork there with the ball being forced grabbed. You know, and it's just like enough, enough. Like your play field on your $13,000 game should be nicer than your play field on your $6,000 game, but they don't want to make those changes. And everybody else out there in the pinball world, it's all about the details. It's all about the little reasons why you want to buy that version of the game. It's just confusing to me why Stern Pinball seems unable to make any sort of move that really shows us they listening And what we telling them is our money is talking The lack of us spending money on your recent offerings Stern is us telling you It's not that we want you to go out of business, but you need to listen to us more. You need to put something in front of us that's much more compelling. And this is just not it. You know, going to Expo, I don't even know what I'm really excited to play now. What are the exciting games? Star Wars is clearly not that exciting. I can't wait to play Dune on the latest code. We're not going to see Beetlejuice. We're not going to see Raza. I guess Predator, I'm somewhat curious to play that machine, but no real surprises. So once again, we're like, this is going to be the greatest pinball expo of all time. And then you step back and you think about it is it like is anyone gonna make a surprise do we think dutch pinball might tease back to the future just to get us excited just to get people clapping i don't know like the floor is open for someone to march in there and surprise us remember when like barry did that like 12 years ago nobody knew who dutch pinball was and he rolls in with lebowski i feel a little bit like sorry that no one's able to do that. Like 12 years later, Pinball Brothers couldn't march in with a new game that's gonna blow us away, no. They make Predator without Arnold. Or another company just wants to remake Big Bang Bar, a game that's like 30 years old. Like nobody's got an original idea. And I don't mean like an original IP, I mean go get a movie from the 80s that we really want and make the pinball version of it and then roll into the show and drop the mic. I just wish we would see more of that in this hobby. At these prices, we all just want more. That's it. You're spending more money. You should get more. And I think that's where a lot of us are out. You're just like happy with games that you bought years ago that are just so much better. I was thinking about Ghostbusters. Why is Stern not remaking Ghostbusters right now? Like look down at that game. Look at everything that's in it. It's so much more creative than Star Wars. It's so much cooler than Star Wars. And I understand it would cost them money to go like renew the license and get the clips. But go do it, Stern. Your bomb is still around four to five thousand dollars. OK, you could do this on Ghostbusters and sell like a fifteen thousand dollar Ghostbusters. We would spend as much money on Ghostbusters if it had everything we wanted in it. the same way people are spending $15,000 on Harry Potter and not even blinking. Because Ghostbusters has way more mechanical magic in it than Harry Potter. It just doesn't shoot as well, not even nearly as well. And you'd have to fix some of the geometry issues and fix the big gap down the middle. But man, the rest of it is pretty damn cool. And I would actually find a way to use stronger magnets in the slingshots so you could really use those magnets. It should have felt like the ghosts were passing the ball back and forth to each other. It's not really done the best possible way. But now you've got Spike 3. So can you supercharge Ghostbusters somehow and add even more magic? And so here's what I'm gonna tell you right now. I heard that Walking Dead, there's nothing added to it. There's nothing added mechanically to it. Spike 3 is not gonna make the game even better. They're just gonna change the sculpts and probably add more lighting, and then we'll see what's up on the screen, whether it's like comic book or show footage. I mean, knowing Stern lately, I think they're just gonna animate what was on the DMD screen. I don't think you're gonna see show clips. Remember, this is Stern. When was the last time they actually exceeded our expectations? Everybody, I love you. Happy Monday on this old technology I'm recording on. If it doesn't sound as good or if it's clipping, it's because it's my old computer. even the old version of Audacity. I want to commend each and every one of you for not running in on this game new in box. Like almost nobody I know bought it. And it's going to send a message and they're either going to make games more magical or bring the prices down. There's no other way out for Stern Pinball. All right, everybody. Happy Monday, Canada out. We're running tall