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The Pinball Show Ep 158 BONUS: Building A Game Release Calendar: What's Coming & When

Pinball Show Patreon Feed·podcast_episode·20m 18s·analyzed·Aug 13, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Hosts map 15+ pinball game releases across 2024-2025 and warn of industry consolidation ahead.

Summary

The Pinball Show hosts speculate on a game release calendar for 2024-2025, predicting 13-15+ new pinball games across manufacturers. They estimate Stern's August cornerstone, JJP's September/October release (possibly Avatar), American Pinball's Cuphead in October, Dutch Pinball's Alice in October, Spooky's December holiday title, and Harry Potter from JJP in March 2025. They discuss Stern's potential November Metallica Spike 3 remake, express concerns about market saturation and poor sales of recent games, and predict industry consolidation with 1-3 manufacturers potentially closing in 2025.

Key Claims

  • Stern will release a third cornerstone game by late August 2024, designed by Jack Danger

    high confidence · Hosts discussing established Stern release pattern and schedule gaps

  • JJP is planning a September or October 2024 release (possibly Avatar) designed by Mark Seiden

    medium confidence · One host states September, the other corrects to October-ish; Avatar noted as 'rumored'

  • American Pinball will release Cuphead (designed by Ryan McQuaid) in October 2024

    medium confidence · Noted as 'rumored' but described as American Pinball's second 2024 licensed game

  • Dutch Pinball will launch Alice's Adventures in Wonderland in October 2024

    medium confidence · Described as non-player sales, 'small run with a tarnished brand'

  • Spooky Pinball traditionally launches holiday games in December

    high confidence · Both hosts agree; described as recurring pattern

  • JJP will release Harry Potter in March 2025

    medium confidence · Host prediction based on market timing and show schedule; both hosts agree

  • Stern may release a Metallica Spike 3 remake in November 2024 as a catalog refresh

    low confidence · Speculative discussion; one host skeptical, other suggests it as option if Spike 3 debuts then

  • Pinball Brothers' ABBA game is not selling well

    medium confidence · Direct statement: 'they are not selling good at all'

  • 1-3 pinball manufacturers will shut down in 2025 due to unsustainable production levels and poor sales

    medium confidence · Host prediction based on market conditions and comparison to 2021-2022 boom period

  • Most pinball manufacturers lack adequate marketing and advertising strategy for current market conditions

Notable Quotes

  • “We're about to blow their flipping minds.”

    Host (unnamed) @ early — Establishes excitement about the release calendar breakdown segment

  • “Look, sounds silly, but if you think about it, like, for example, we have been guessing, predicting that come August, toward the end of August, we're going to get a Stern Third Cornerstone 2024 launch and release.”

    Host (unnamed) @ early — Explains the basis for confident Stern August prediction

  • “I do think that if it is Avatar coming out, then they know the theme alone may not be gangbusters. So maximizing sales is going to be very important.”

    Host (unnamed) @ mid — Reveals strategic thinking about JJP's rumored Avatar game and market positioning

  • “A lot of people, the shame, the sheer shame of owning it.”

    Host (unnamed) @ mid — Commentary on Dutch Pinball's brand reputation and market perception

  • “I still think Metallica is not the right play. If that's what they're doing, then it would make sense to stick it in November because it's not going to have the sales of a cornerstone but I would normally say based off of everything else that they've ever done before that when Spike 3 drops it's with a cornerstone not with some rehash.”

    Host (Zach, inferred) @ mid — Expresses skepticism about Metallica remake strategy and Spike 3 launch approach

  • “That thing is dead. Unless they totally redo a whole different game.”

    Host (Zach, inferred) @ mid — Harsh assessment of Metallica dot matrix secondary market value

  • “I'm guessing John Borg had something that got scrapped. And I'm guessing that concurrently or because of he started messing around with Metallica again.”

    Host (Dennis, inferred) @ mid — Speculation about John Borg's design activity and scrapped projects

  • “We're going to get 15 plus games in the next year. There are going to be new games every single month, you know, tentatively.”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinball (JJP)companyAmerican PinballcompanyDutch PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyPinball BrotherscompanyBarrels of FuncompanyCGC (Custom Game Cabinets)company

Signals

  • ?

    product_launch: Hosts predict 15+ pinball games will launch across 2024-2025, distributed more evenly across months than 2023's March congestion

    medium · Discussion of August Stern, September/October JJP, October American Pinball/Dutch Pinball, November potential Metallica, December Spooky, March 2025 JJP Harry Potter, plus multiple other manufacturer releases

  • $

    market_signal: Hosts assert pinball sales are below 2021-2022 peak and market cannot sustain current manufacturer count

    high · Quote: 'I do not think pinball is going to sell as many games as was in demand in that 2021-2022 period. We are not at that point. We will not be at that point next year. And we cannot sustain this number of manufacturers.'

  • ?

    business_signal: Hosts predict 1-3 pinball manufacturers will close in 2025 due to market contraction

    medium · Host: 'I do also think that in 2025 in particular, we will see another company go away.' Later: 'Would you even be surprised if three pinball companies shut their doors next year? I would not be surprised.'

  • ?

    product_concern: Pinball Brothers' ABBA game selling poorly; hosts question brand viability and future release plans

    high · Host: 'they are not selling good at all so i don't know what their next rumored game is' and speculation about potential full shutdown

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Multiple rumored games discussed: Avatar (JJP), Cuphead (American Pinball), Alice (Dutch Pinball), with varying confidence levels

    low · Hosts use 'rumored,' 'I've heard that,' and speculative timing language throughout

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.061

0:00
Warning, the following episode contains adult language and screaming goats. Listener discretion is advised. Thanks again for the ongoing support as a Pinball Show Club member. Enjoy this exclusive TPS content and make sure to visit the Pinball Show Club Discord to chat about the bonus material. Alright Dennis, we're here to make these people perk their ears or eyes. Do you perk your eyes up or ears up? No, you don't. Neither?
0:28
No. Nipples are perky. I think perking is referring to like how the dogs make their ears stand up. Oh. And they tilt their heads to the side? That's when they're confused. Perk. What is the meaning of perk? I'm looking it up. Nobody cares. Become or make cheerful, lively, or interested. The dogs are not cheerful. So the people and the listener themselves are perked rather than the ears. I don't know if they're feeling it this week. What? It's hard to say. We're about to blow their flipping minds. Okay. You and I are going to sit here and go through all of the new releases and when we think they could come out and create kind of a game release schedule calendar here.
1:07
Okay. Look, it sounds silly, but if you think about it, like, for example, we have been guessing, predicting that come August, toward the end of August, we're going to get a Stern Third Cornerstone 2024 launch and release. Sure, but that's not the hardest prediction given the gap in the schedule. Okay, well, let's move on to September then. September, listener, I think we might see JJP's next game. That would be their first 2024 game designed by Mark Seiden.
1:38
Rumored Avatar? I've heard that, yeah. Okay, so we've got August for that third Cornerstone game, Jack Danger game. We talked about it in the main episode.

medium confidence · Host opinion: 'I don't think the majority of the manufacturers in this industry are cognizant to the level and the need of exceptional marketing and advertising'

Host (unnamed) @ late — Summarizes scale of predicted releases and market saturation

  • “I do not think pinball is going to sell as many games as was in demand in that 2021-2022 period. We are not at that point. We will not be at that point next year. And we cannot sustain this number of manufacturers.”

    Host (unnamed) @ late — Core prediction about market contraction and manufacturer consolidation

  • “Marketing and advertising is so detrimental in the next two years in pinball for these companies. And sadly, I don't think the majority of the manufacturers in this industry are cognizant to the level and the need of exceptional marketing and advertising.”

    Host (unnamed) @ late — Critical assessment of industry-wide weakness in marketing execution

    • Pedretti Gaming
    company
    Multimorphiccompany
    Pinball Adventurescompany
    Turner Pinballcompany
    Hexa Pinballcompany
    Jack Dangerperson
    Mark Seidenperson
    Ryan McQuaidperson
    John Borgperson
    Brian Eddyperson
    Dwight Sullivanperson
    Avatargame
    Cupheadgame
    Alice's Adventures in Wonderlandgame
    Texas Pinball Festivalevent
    Harry Pottergame
  • ?

    machine_intel: Stern August 2024 cornerstone (Jack Danger design) predicted with high confidence based on historical release gaps

    high · Host: 'we have been guessing, predicting that come August, toward the end of August, we're going to get a Stern Third Cornerstone 2024 launch and release.' Both hosts agree this is based on established schedule pattern

  • ?

    technology_signal: Spike 3 platform adoption being considered for potential November Metallica remake or January 2025 cornerstone launch

    medium · Discussion of Spike 3 debut and whether it comes with new cornerstone or catalog remake; hosts debate pros/cons

  • ?

    design_philosophy: JJP prefers to launch games around major shows (Expo) to maximize sales; willing to delay vs. launch into perceived weaker competition

    medium · Host: 'JJP is the one company that still kind of likes to do things around shows of size' and decision to wait until October vs. September to avoid cannibalizing sales

  • ?

    industry_signal: Hosts assert most manufacturers lack strategic marketing/advertising expertise needed for 2025 market conditions

    medium · Host: 'I don't think the majority of the manufacturers in this industry are cognizant to the level and the need of exceptional marketing and advertising. I don't think they get it. And the results will show.'

  • ?

    venue_signal: Texas Pinball Festival (spring 2025) acting as anchor event for multiple manufacturer launches (Barrels of Fun, Multimorphic, Turner Pinball)

    high · Multiple manufacturers timing releases to coincide with Texas Pinball Festival for first public unveiling and sales opportunity

  • ?

    operational_signal: CGC's chronic delays in remake production; hosts expect Medieval Madness remake to slip from 2023 target to February-May 2025

    high · Host: 'They're just – they're so bad at this. They are so slow... CGC And they have never failed to not let me down on their timelines.'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: John Borg's recent activity uncertain; hosts speculate he had a game scrapped and may be revisiting Metallica instead of new original design

    low · Host speculation: 'I'm guessing John Borg had something that got scrapped. And I'm guessing that concurrently or because of he started messing around with Metallica again.'

    • 1:50
    We don't know what it is, kind of thing. September, we could have JJP's game. I think that's October, but okay. Oh, okay. So you're in between September and October. I think that month of Expo, yeah.
    2:02
    They're going to wait that long, huh? I do. They're not going to try to jump out in front of other people. Not because they're afraid of X-Men or anything. I just think they are the one company that still kind of likes to do things around shows of size.
    2:17
    Company of size. I believe that if it is Avatar coming out, then they know the theme alone may not be gangbusters. So maximizing sales is going to be very important. And to do so, jumping in front of even perceived inferior products, such as something like maybe American Pinball's next game, which I do think is going to come out in October. I do think that, too. Okay. See? Sales are sales. so I think maybe they want to jump out in front of that and they don't know when that's coming that's the rumored Cuphead game designed by Ryan McQuaid this would be American Pinball's second 2024 game release and their second licensed game release there you go good point but also JGP's probably thinking I'm thinking October DPX is going to launch Alice's Adventures in Wonderland sure but that's a non-player sales are still sales it is but it's a small run with a tarnished brand. A lot of people, the shame, the sheer shame of owning it.
    3:22
    If you can guarantee a couple hundred more sales if you launch two weeks earlier, eh? I don't think DPX is going to factor any of that in, though. It may not. That's a thing for people with lots of money who just really want to flex on getting their J-pop fantasy fulfilled. You just made me picture him naked. Speaking of perk, his little Alice was sticking up. All right. So, but my thought is October, you got those. So maybe we see, maybe JJP wastes October. But I can almost bet you they're not waiting after Expo.
    4:06
    Right? Yeah, I don't think so. So September, October-ish, right? Yeah. So it's August. We got something September. potentially we have some October couple things that we have. That's got to be it, right? Well, then November comes along. November, December, kind of murky. We do know that I'm jumping ahead here, but December, Spooky loves a holiday launch. Sure. We'll probably see something in December from Spooky Pinball. Yeah, I agree. All right. So we've got all those. What about November? We'll go back to November.
    4:35
    You know, November will feel to me, looking at certain schedule, it feels like a kind of in between that's when they like to drop maybe a studio release or maybe another catalog game that's what i would think was coming in november a new edition of something maybe that's when we start seeing the first spike 3 maybe they integrate it into something like metallica that isn fully a brand new game but the newness is that it spike 3 and now it lcd screen It got a couple of different toys different art Maybe that it Or do they consider that a quarterstone They wait until January. I just, uh, yeah, I, I have such a, I was gonna say bad feeling, but not, that makes it sound like I, I don't think it's going to work. What I mean is I don't have a good sense about any of that. I still think this idea of revamping a Metallica is not the right play. but if that's what they're doing then it would make sense to stick it in November because it's not going to have the sales of a cornerstone but I would normally say based off of everything else that they've ever done before that when spike 3 drops it's with a cornerstone not with some rehash I thought they might softly go into it but why?
    5:55
    because new operating systems you're always banging out new stuff you're always I just you're always so why not do one where you don't have to mess with the layout much you know the coding layout's not going to affect the board so the rules are already done so you're not I guess and we're keeping the same rules is this just to give it a new like display instead of a dot I don't know I don't know it feels weird just vault Metallica there's demand for Metallica no and otherwise it's too boring well no I wouldn't vote it anymore because there's like a gazillion of them out there. That's what I'm saying. So you want to get the sales from the people who love the first one.
    6:31
    Are they going to go to the effort and take a huge... Because you know they're going to take a huge bath on Metallica dot Matrix if this happens. I should have trended that down, yeah, because that thing is going to drop. That thing is dead. Unless they totally redo a whole different game. Right. Which again, I don't think you do that. I think just put out Spike 3 with I don't know, Last Airbender or whatever they plan to do. Okay. That's a different avatar.
    7:00
    Yes. So that's potentially November-ish. Yeah. If it's the Metallica thing, I do think November. Regardless, though. If it's Cornerstone, then it's January. January we know is Cornerstone. Yes. That's when they always launch their first yearly Cornerstone. That would be the first 2025 Cornerstone. Maybe that's Spike 3. Who knows? If they make the transition in November, then absolutely it's Spike 3. But I would guess that we're still, based on what's in stock at Stern, What's the stock with dealers? I still think we see something new from Stern between the launch in August and January. So I'm putting it in November. Okay. I just don't see the demand for it. Oh, you will. Stern has to keep creating products. No, I understand they have to keep the line moving. But to me, this is more of a sign of weakness, especially if this August release game is not good enough. What other options do they have? They have to turn to the back catalog in desperation. What are their options?
    8:01
    Accelerate the release of another game and move the cornerstone up. Oh, then you're really messing with lack of code. Yeah, they've got so many design teams now. Is it really going to be that far behind?
    8:12
    I mean, it's absolutely a fair concern of yours, Zach. Absolutely. Yeah, I would think if it is questionable, they should have already hired some more coders. You should just have a coding house, just coding the hell out of shit. All right. So that would be January running into February. For me, I'm thinking February. That's when CGC will actually start making Medieval Madness remake. You know, I still – I know you've padded it by a few months out from December. You're in July. Well, I was thinking more like April, May. It could be. They're just – they're so bad at this. They are so slow. They make such a good quality product, and they're so bad about making any timelines regarding it. It's just as long as they've made pinball, that they still are so slow absolutely blows my mind. If their quality wasn't so good, people would have long since walked away from them. It could very well be March, April, May.
    9:13
    February, it seems like you're like, I've really built in some buffer, and you have, Zach, but it's CGC. And they have never failed to not let me down on their timelines. They originally said that Medieval Madness was coming out at the end of 2023.
    9:28
    So there you go. And we know they have not started on Pulp Fiction LEs yet. They should start on those September-ish through November. Is there a plan to create all those? And most dealers have Pulp SEs in stocks. I don't think they're going to do a big build of those after Pulp LEs. and they have you have good grounds to to say they should be able to go four months without building so we've seen that before those make cabinets for other manufacturers like they can stop their life at least their pinball line i don't know they're selling foosball or something but they making cabinets for arcade machines like they can they can stay busy so that that murky i didn know February March Barrels of Fun I mean their sophomore effort the sophomore game second game that they have from their company is going to be coming out soon, soon-ish, soon meaning they anticipate being done with all of their Labyrinth run probably by, I'd say, January, February. but keep in mind that they can still launch a game and still need to make it last a couple hundred. It's not the end of the world kind of thing. So I think they want to get ahead of Texas Pinball Festival because their home is down in Houston. So I think they want to make the most of that being the first show that we see it at. I think March is a good guess. And if it is March, I would say early March because it wouldn't surprise me if they came out in February with something. Yeah, I think they want to get all of their announcement stuff done before the show. But March is also a time that other people are going to try to be squeezing in because, in my opinion, I think March is going to come along, listener,
    11:13
    and that's when JJP is going to help us all finally accept the moniker Pinball Wizards. You mean Pinball Legacies. No, not Hogwarts.
    11:25
    Hogfarts. No. So I think we see Harry Potter pinball in March of 2025. I think so, too. But then we also look pinball brothers. Where are they at? I'm putting them in March, too. They released ABBA in May of this year. Yeah, but they originally started shipping. Their goal was always I don't know if they made it public, but they wanted to have two games a year. abba's um i hate i hate to be a negative nancy here but are not selling good at all so i don't know what their next rumored game is i don't either it honestly it's so weird with pinball brothers it feels like like alien was their gold mine and everything else is just not for whatever reason not working you know i was thinking about because euro pinball corp is technically an umbrella over them and pedretti that there's pinball brothers and Pedretti.
    12:25
    Like, do we, do they just, like, maybe they just don't make any more pinball machines. I said that years ago. I know. I said that I often suspected that this was a, now they've gone further than what I said, so what I said was wrong. But just for a reminder for those that don't know what I said, because I don't remember where I said it. I probably said it everywhere, because I talked until I blew in the face and no one listens, was that they were trying to recover their investment in highway. So we knew they had Alien. We knew they had Queen.
    12:56
    Abbott was a surprise to me. That was their first, like, we're going to do our own design stuff. Everything else was kind of at least partially already done, like in the case of Queen. But, you know, really, as successful as they've had with Alien, I thought, you know, maybe they're happy. They were like, you know what? We saved this from being a huge money pit with Highway, and let's walk away. They're not doing their own build. they turned to progetti for it because that was another big question about like, why do you want to staff up all this stuff? And especially in this market. Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah. Especially in this market. And I've seen them advertising stuff for progetti and stuff. So it's all kind of the same family. But then I'm like, well, no, what's probably going to happen is progetti game. He's going to still continue to focus on remakes. And then pinball brothers are going to focus on licensed stuff. But I mean, And do you think they wait until March to announce another game release? I think maybe if they're making enough. I do think they wait till then because I don't think they're ready yet to do another announcement earlier.
    14:00
    And then push comes to shove. We're back in April where Stern oftentimes launches that second cornerstone. Sure. Sometimes it was March. They'd get it right after TPF and in between Midwest Gaming at the end of March. but we'll give them April here because John Witt came out in May, June, May-ish. So back on schedule, April, because of the market and stuff. Maybe sooner, who knows, but launching their second 2025 Cornerstone. Possibly Brian Eddy, Dwight Sullivan collab? Yeah, maybe. I think those two are going to take an even bigger stab and deviation from what we know as pinball with the new Spike 3 system. But what about, isn't it Borg been the longest not to have a new? Yeah, but what I'm guessing happened is I'm guessing John Borg had something that got scrapped. And I'm guessing that concurrently or because of he started messing around with Metallica again.
    14:59
    Oh, okay. You know, John, maybe another toy or so. But if they're not changing the layout, he doesn't have to do anything. Maybe, you know, we got new materials. Spike 3 Yeah but that doesn involve him as a playfield designer Borg you such a legacy designer Oversee some of these other groups He should be doing Hogwarts Legacy Stay busy. Don't have bike scuff marks in the factory during working hours. Did you sleep here again, John? That kind of thing.
    15:31
    And then in May, we have – I think we get another Pedretti Gaming remake announcement in May of 2025.
    15:41
    I suppose. I have no context on that. That gives you one year to make all the fun houses. Sure. I know that that company wants to bang out yearly remakes. Okay. So we're just looking. And we know the following. We'll get another August, September Cornerstone. Prior to that, we'll probably get a little special edition anniversary premium in June or July from Stern. So just, listener, looking at August, September, October, November, all of that, we've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 13 to 15 different games over the next year, if not more. Yeah, no, I think that's conservative. I think Multimorphic will, for Texas Pinball Festival, have another module. I forgot about Multimorphic. Yeah, I think Multimorphic is going to try and make a March release, so them. Also, it sounded like Pinball Adventures would be back into the swing of things by this point. So sometime in spring, spring to summer, I think we would see something out of them as well. And let's not forget whatever's going on with Turner Pinball. That's right. Which, Texas again, local show for them. Mm-hmm. So 15 would be conservative. Yes, I think so. 15 new game titles. This is like 2023 again. And granted, 2023, it was like almost all of them dropped in March. So this is a little more diversified this next year. But this is a lot. I think it's easy for people to kind of take a step back and be like, oh, I'm itching for the next new thing. It's like, guys, we're going to get 15 plus games in the next year. There are going to be new games every single month, you know, tentatively. But we're going to see all kinds of stuff. Is this a good thing for pinball? I think so. But how long can you hold on with bad sales of a product? We'll have to see. I think it's good for the consumers. And I think it's healthier for the manufacturers that it's not like this isn't like 2023's forecast where so much of it just happened to coincidentally draw. You know, we had like seven new games at TPF, and that was rough. Like some manufacturers lost because of that. And it doesn't look to me, based off of these predictions, that we're going to see nearly that sort of congestion, which is good. However, I do also think that in 2025 in particular, we will see another company go away. Okay, yeah. Because I do not think this is not – pinball is not going to sell as many games as was in demand in that 2021-2022 period. We are not at that point. We will not be at that point next year. And we cannot sustain this number of manufacturers. Would you even be surprised if three pinball companies shut their doors next year? I would not be surprised. I would not either. But I think three is at the upper end of what I would expect. I don't know.
    18:38
    I don't know. It's tough because, I mean, some of them we may never, like if Hexa Pinball goes away, are we even going to know?
    18:45
    I'm excited to see where pinball is going because now these manufacturers, they can't cruise. There's no cruising now. You can't. Like when it was good for consumers to whenever there was that you talked about in that March, everybody piled up and produced. That's because pinball was hot and people were just throwing money at whatever. Like that doesn't happen now because companies are smarter to know like they'll get buried. They have to at least be conscientious of the marketplace. And like the timing is very crucial. marketing and advertising is so detrimental in the next two years in pinball for these companies. And sadly, I don't think, I would honestly say, I don't think the majority, that's very strong. I don't think the majority of the manufacturers in this industry are cognizant to the level and the need of exceptional marketing and advertising. I don't think they get it.
    19:46
    And the results will show. That's just my take. I would want to be a member of this. I'd sign up to this. But only the members have heard this. It's a catch-22. Believe me, they'll be telling people. Oh, okay. Or do you think it's a thing that they just want to keep it close to themselves? No, you're right. It'll leak out.
    20:13
    Thanks for the support, everybody. Yep. You can stop listening now. Thank you.