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Pinball Junk Drawer, Episode 6

Poor Man's Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·analyzed·Jan 26, 2022
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Pinball pricing spiral explained: manufacturers restrained, scarcity inflates used market, flippers broke the price discovery.

Summary

The host of Poor Man's Pinball Podcast's 'Pinball Junk Drawer' episode 6 delivers a meandering, character-driven monologue on pinball pricing, arguing that manufacturers are actually showing restraint despite rising costs (lumber, components, labor). He acknowledges the pain of $9-10k machines for working collectors, explains why used machine prices have inflated dramatically due to supply scarcity post-COVID, and concludes that the secondary market's extreme prices (flippers asking $18-30k for machines) have recalibrated collector expectations upward. The host emphasizes manufacturers aren't the villains—market forces and scarcity are driving the economics—and advocates for collectors to either save aggressively, enjoy location play, or accept that their machines are staying put.

Key Claims

  • Pinball companies are showing a great deal of restraint in pricing despite cost pressures.

    medium confidence · Host opening thesis; presented as counterintuitive opinion rather than factual assertion

  • Manufacturing input costs have roughly tripled, including lumber and components.

    medium confidence · Host anecdote about new construction home estimates; applied to pinball manufacturing as general cost pressure

  • Used classic machines (Comet, Hook, Fireball) now average $3,500-4,000, up significantly from historical pricing.

    medium confidence · Host observation of secondary market pricing trends

  • Supply chain disruptions (COVID, chip shortages, production halts) caused new machine scarcity, driving used machine prices upward.

    high confidence · Host connecting production shutdowns to current market dynamics

  • Extreme secondary market asking prices ($18-30k for machines like Metallica, Pirates) have recalibrated what collectors perceive as 'normal' pricing.

    high confidence · Host observing psychological anchor effect from inflated listings, even if unmarked 'sold' status unclear

  • New machines priced $8,500-10,000+ (with taxes/delivery) are unaffordable for working-class collectors.

    high confidence · Host personal financial assessment; relates to Godzilla and Elvira's House of Horrors Premium Edition

  • The host owns Beatles pinball and Dr. Dude; both are staying in his Wisconsin basement due to stairwell design and personal attachment.

    high confidence · Direct personal disclosure about collection and house logistics

  • Forum discussion threads using only letter abbreviations (EHOH, GWTS) without spelling out machine names create friction for new collectors.

    medium confidence · Host complaint about hobby communication standards; proposes price reduction for sellers using only initials

Notable Quotes

  • “I believe that pinball companies are showing a great deal of restraint. And yeah, I know, I just blew some wigs.”

    Host (Foghorn Leghorn character) @ ~02:20 — Core thesis: manufacturers are not the villains; market and cost pressures are legitimate

  • “They're paying $20,000 for something I made four years ago, huh? I think we might be leaving some money on the table.”

    Host (speaking from manufacturer perspective) @ ~02:40 — Illustrates untapped pricing power; suggests manufacturers could charge more but don't

  • “And if you want to keep the air compressors running, if you want to keep the electric on, if you want to keep those—that wall of microwaves—I've heard famously the wall of microwaves at Sam Stern—you want to keep them powered up, well, you better not be losing a whole ton of money.”

    Host @ ~04:00 — Humor mixed with acknowledgment of real operational costs at Stern; reference to famous 'wall of microwaves' is insider lore

  • “That's the problem. Everyone was like, Jackson Gee, pinball is dying. We need more people in pinball. More and more and more. Let's get out there. Let's get cool. Let's get more people involved in the hobby... then an influx of new people come? That goes away.”

    Host @ ~10:30 — Causal explanation for scarcity: hobby growth + supply interruption = used market collapse

  • “The ones I have now are being bolted to the ground unless somebody comes in here and steals them. They're not going anywhere.”

    Host @ ~13:00 — Admission that collector strategy has shifted to hoarding due to resale math becoming unfavorable

  • “If I could sell a machine and then go get a new Deadpool Stern AC/DC Pro Vault Edition. That's well, I still wouldn't. But in logically, I should. But but that's not the reality anymore.”

    Host @ ~14:00 — Illustrates broken arbitrage: selling a used machine no longer generates enough capital to buy a new equivalent

  • “The money they asking you is obscene but the market will bear that so that means that's what it's worth.”

Entities

Poor Man's Pinball PodcastorganizationFoghorn LeghornpersonStern PinballcompanySam SternpersonLyman SheetspersonGodzillagameElvira's House of HorrorsgameMetallicagame

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Host defends manufacturer restraint but acknowledges they could theoretically charge more (machines from 4 years ago selling for $20k secondary market indicates untapped pricing power). Cost absorption vs. price pass-through tension.

    medium · Host perspective-shift to hypothetical manufacturer: 'so wait a minute, They're paying $20,000 for something I made four years ago, huh? I think we might be leaving some money on the table.'

  • ?

    community_signal: Host observes forum culture of price-shaming unrealistic secondary market listings (sellers asking $18-30k for machines, community mocking as 'insane'), but notes some marked 'sold'—suggesting occasional deals happening at high prices despite community skepticism.

    medium · Host describes 'threads that most people just dog pile on because they're hilarious' where sellers ask extreme prices; notes 'it's marked sold so either someone wrote back and said look i'll give you eight and they said that works or somebody ponied up'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Host observes community blame consistently directed at manufacturers (especially Stern) despite broader market dynamics being the real driver. Asks community to 'stop screaming at the manufacturers'—signal of frustration with scapegoating narrative.

    high · Host notes 'It's always Sam Stern. It's never JJB, it's never, it's always, the forums are always going after the big guy.' Direct call: 'Stop screaming at the manufacturers they're under a lot of pressure.'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Pinball Expo and MGC attendance signals strong community event infrastructure and collector/player gathering venues; described as accessible alternative to home ownership for experiencing new machines.

    medium · Host planning MGC attendance with 'tribe coin'; mentions Pinball Expo attendance last year; suggests location play ('Player 2 Barcade once every month or two') as viable hobby participation mode

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.063

0:00
Now who's responsible for this unwarranted attack on my person? I say, I say, I say, pay attention now, boy. This is, of course, Foghorn Leghorn presents the Pinball Junk Drawer. You all asked for it. I say, you all asked for it now. You're gonna get it. Boy, oh boy, are you gonna get it. Go, I say, go away, boy, you're bothering me. And we are back again for the Foghorn Leghorn Presents the Pinball Junk Jore. I know. This is number six. Man. I know everyone's like, yeah, he'll do like one of these and then not again. Listen to the last one. I think I talk too much when I'm interviewing. I think it should be like a 20-80 thing where you do 20% of the questions and let them talk 80%. I think mine are kind of like 60-40 with me blathering on. Yeah, well. I guess that's my style. Ooh, he's got his interview style. Or lack thereof, I guess is what I really should say. So this week, we're going to tackle a subject that is always on the hot seat, on the front burner, always percolating, I guess, if you want to use some not relevant terms. So basically pinball pricing. Wowzers. I know. Everyone has a lot of opinions about them and they're right and they're wrong. Just like everything I'm going to say today. Mostly wrong, maybe right. Who cares? I like how I lower the stakes to nothing. Then I proceed with the shows. That keeps everyone's on the same. Everyone got the right mindset. Let's not take things too seriously. I was going to talk about the pinball pricing like last couple weeks I was thinking about it and like kind of reading some forum stuff and thinking about it and thinking about it and the problem with this is one of those subjects just goes in circles man you think about it you think about it you think you're chasing the dragon's tail baby because it's there's a lot you know people every day and a half a new thread pops up what's with the pinball pricing or damn you stern with your, that's it, I quit because of your pricing, stern. It's always stern. It's never JJB, it's never, it's always, the forums are always going after the big guy. But I would start off by saying, I believe that pinball companies are showing a great deal of restraint. And yeah, I know, I just blew some wigs. Some people are just like, what, what, what?
2:33
Well, if I'm sitting back and I'm the head of a corporation, I'm like, so wait a minute, They're paying $20,000 for something I made four years ago, huh? I think we might be leaving some money on the table. $20,000, no. But that's not popular. No one wants to hear that. No, nobody wants to hear that. Everyone's like, wait, they increased their prices by $150. You corporate scum. Even though you look at everything and the bomb for everything is like tripled. You know, you're like, oh, yeah, plywood. That's made of gold now, didn't you know? That's $10,000 a sheet. But everyone's expecting the prices to stay the same. Not how life works, folks. I know I went and got a, like, we moved into a house here in Wisconsin. We moved from Florida to Wisconsin. So interesting choice. I love our move. We love it here in Wisconsin. But, you know, we recently got, this is a new construction home. Like, this is literally built. I think they hit the last nail into the wall As I was signing the papers And then we walked in here October 16th So they finished the house October 15th But it was an unfinished basement So the first order of business Let's get some quotes for some finishing the basement Because that's where the bar slash Arcade slash pinball So barcade, retrofit, everything cool is in the basement All the square stuff Is upstairs Living quarters, places to make food and toilets, you know. And I got the estimates back, and I was like, wow, we're not finishing this basement any time soon. And you look at it, it's because, like, you know, two by fours and lumber was astronomical at that time. Now, I've heard it's coming down a little bit, so we're playing the waiting game. We're going to have our finished basement at some point, but we're waiting until it's not $70 for a common two by four. so but the pinball places they can't wait they got it they got to buy the cabinets got to buy the bolts got to buy the nuts got to buy the screws got all the lights got to buy every little thing so every little uptick is taking out of their bottom line and if you want to keep the air compressors running if you want to keep the electric on if you want to keep those that wall of microwaves i've heard famously the wall of microwaves at stern you want to keep them powered up, well, you better not be losing a whole ton of money. And if you're absorbing cost and not putting it through to the end consumer, well, you're just dumb. You're losing money. And guess what? A corporation is supposed to make money. So back to the original thing I know it hurts It hurts me I look at those prices I like yeah I can buy that I love Godzilla I like a super Godzilla fan also a super Elvira fan Those are two machines I should by all rights own but I work for a living And I went, no, no, I'm not buying that. I want to. Trust me. I really, really want to.

Host @ ~18:00 — Market theory: price discovery happens at transaction point, not at asking price

  • “I've seen the the pirates for 18 grand, 20 grand, 30 grand. You're like, no, no. You've seen that so much. Now you look at a comet that's listed for 4,500. You go, well, that's a good deal. Oh no, it's not.”

    Host @ ~20:00 — Anchoring effect: extreme listings reset baseline expectations upward, making overpriced items seem reasonable

  • “Stop screaming at the manufacturers they're under a lot of pressure and they're leaving money on the table.”

    Host @ ~25:00 — Direct call to redirect community blame from manufacturers to market dynamics

  • “And if you're going to play dollar games well then take all your winnings every time you win money at a dollar game and stuff into a little jar and after 20 years you be able to buy a used comet.”

    Host @ ~27:00 — Humorous exaggeration of entry barrier; suggests casual location play as accessible alternative to ownership

    • Pirates of the Caribbean
    game
    The Beatlesgame
    Dr. Dudegame
    Cometgame
    Hookgame
    Fireballgame
    Deadpoolgame
    AC/DCgame
    Austin Powersgame
    Player 2 Barcadeorganization
    Pinball Expoevent
    MGC (Midwest Gaming Classic)event
    Pinsideorganization
  • $

    market_signal: Supply chain disruption (COVID, chip shortages, production halts) created cascade: used machine scarcity + new machine scarcity + influx of new collectors = price inflation across both markets. Used machine resale no longer viable arbitrage for upgrading.

    high · Host explicitly connects 'production shut down, chips went away, now with COVID' to current market state; notes 'old stock is just gone'; discusses broken upgrade path (selling Beatles doesn't generate enough capital for new machine purchase)

  • ?

    community_signal: Host describes personal pivot from trading up in used market to 'bolting machines to the ground'—collector behavior shift from active portfolio to static collection due to broken economics.

    high · 'The ones I have now are being bolted to the ground unless somebody comes in here and steals them. They're not going anywhere.' Strategic shift from used market arbitrage to holding.

  • $

    market_signal: Host articulates classic pinball pricing tension: new machines now $8,500-10k+ unaffordable for working-class collectors; used classic machines inflated 2-3x from historical baseline; secondary market asking prices ($18-30k) have psychologically recalibrated expectations upward.

    high · Direct pricing claims ('Godzilla', 'Elvira', 'Comet now $3,500-4,500 vs. $1,800 for Dr. Dude'); observation that extreme listings reset anchors; personal financial constraints acknowledged

  • ?

    product_strategy: Host references tiered pricing for new releases (e.g., AC/DC Pro, Premium, Vault editions with varying feature/cosmetic bundles), but doesn't critique the model itself—frames pricing as inevitable given cost structure.

    medium · References 'Stern AC/DC Pro Vault Edition' and 'nice one' (Premium) vs. base Pro; positions tier differences as reasonable within cost framework

    • 5:36
    Can't. I mean, I even have enough. I could, but I don't want to. That money is like, you're talking about 10 grand, 9 grand. Now they say, oh, it's 8,500. Well, with taxes and when you get a thing and stuff and all the other crap that's involved, you're probably at close to 10. Maybe not 10, but you're close to 10. That's just for the regular one. Not the pro, but the nice one. So you're like, okay, you do that math. And again, if you're a working fella like me, you go, hmm, that's a lot of money. That's like my first eight cars together weren't 10 grand. Now, that pinball machine is going to be more fun and last longer than my first 10 cars. So what? You're in your head. You're still doing the math. You're like, no, that's no. And then I used to live in the middle, the mid-range of the used market. So I'd be like, well, I'm not going to buy that now. But eight years after a whole bunch of new shiny crap comes out, people will be like, I'm tired of this dumb crap and I'm going to sell it. But the problem is now they're like, I'm tired of Deadpool. 50 grand. And you're like, wait, this is the wrong way. It's going the wrong way. That's the problem.
    6:49
    Everyone was like, gee, pinball is dying. We need more people in pinball. More and more and more. Let's get out there. Let's get cool. Let's get more people involved in the hobby and let's get it in front. which, yes, that's for the overall health of what we're doing, what pinball have to. It was dying. The final nail was being hit into the coffin many years ago, like eight years ago, ten years ago. Then it got cool, and then people started buying it. You know what happens when there's very limited resources and old machines are just still floating around out there, and a whole influx of new people come? That goes away. And that was the same, and then the production shut down, and chips went away, and now with COVID, oh no. So now you have new machines are slow to come out. All the old stock is just gone. Well, that, my friends, I'm no economic genius, but that, my friends, is how you pay $4,000 for a, what's it, Comet, or a Hook, or a Fireball.
    7:53
    Averaging like $3,500 now. Yikes. See, that's where I used to live. Like, I used to live in that world where, okay, machines get old and tired. I find the nicest Deadpool I can because it's now 8 years old, 10 years old, and I pay $4,000 for the nicest one, $3,500 for the, eh, maybe this was routed but I can fix it kind. But that's not the way it is anymore. So it hurts. It hurts so bad. Pricing sucks.
    8:22
    So we land on the inevitable conclusion. The ones I have now are being bolted to the ground unless somebody comes in here and steals them. They're not going anywhere. Also, the house I bought has switched back like the stairs goes switch back into the basement and there's no like external entrance into the basement. So we kind of have a rule that when something goes down those steps, it's kind of going to live there forever because I'm not bringing it up the steps. So I have a Dr. Dude and a Beatles, and I have my Wonelli, and I have the 60-in-1 really nice main cad that we bought, and we have the bowler that we bought, and we're going to get a kegerator with two, possibly three taps on it.
    9:04
    That stuff ain't going anywhere. It lives here now. Because I look at that and I was like, wow, I could probably get like nine grand for my Beatles or eight grand for my Beatles. And they're like, I don't want it. I want my Beatles. You know, if like if you could sell a machine and then like go get like if I could sell a machine and then go get, you know, sell the doctor dude and then that in a couple of bucks and get a new Deadpool. That's well, I still wouldn't. But in logically, I should. But but that's not the reality anymore. Now, like if I sell that Beatles, I'm not getting it. I can't I can't afford to even buy a machine close to that caliber with that money that I just got in my hand. So either you're cashing out and saying, well, I got rich. I literally had a 500% return on my investment for all these pinball machines. Or you do what I do and say, well, I love pinball, so these are the ones I'm keeping here. And I guess I'm just going to take an Uber and get drunk at Player 2 Barcade once every month or two. And that's where I'll play the new machines, I guess, or whatever, or wait for MGC or Expo or whatever.
    10:10
    This year it's going to be MGC. If any tribe members are listening, I know last year the tribe was strong with the expo. And I think a lot of going to the Houston thing. I can't swing that. But I did get tickets and I got the hotel room right across from the MGC. So I be representing there with my tribe coin and my bad mistakes But back to pricing So again this is where you talk in circles talk in circles Like it obscene The money they asking you is obscene but the market will bear that so that means that's what it's worth. Now, you can say that's not what it's worth all day long because I remember the before times and go, well, you know, it's a comet. They made $28 trillion of these, and, you know, they're not worth that. Like the doctor dude I have is an $1,800 machine, but not anymore. Now it's a $3,200 to $3,500 machine. But you still remember when you're like, these weren't really commanding that kind of money anymore, but everything's shifted.
    11:13
    So, you know, so I guess at this point in the history of the world, that's what they are worth. I can't pay that kind of pricing. Like I still look because I'm still like looking for the tweener, you know. and here's the other big thing with pinball pricing you see these you see these threads that most people just dog pile on because they're hilarious where it's like you know metallica pro 18 grand firm you know and you look at it it's just some random average thing and there's a lot of these popping up people just throwing it against the wall and seeing what sticks and everyone that's like kind of in the pinball knows like no you're an idiot but then it says it's mark sold so either someone wrote back and said look i'll give you eight and they said that works or somebody ponied up and gave the 12 or 18 or what are these obscene amounts of money and that i think is what's happening but the negative side of this and like there's a lot of negatives to it but the real negative is you've seen that enough i've seen the the pirates for 18 grand, 20 grand, 30 grand. You're like, no, no. You've seen that so much. Now you look at a comment that's listed for 4,500. You go, well, that's a pretty good deal. Oh no, it's not. I mean, your brain start, your brain is already doing the calculations. They're like, well, yeah, if I want to buy a comment, I guess that's what I'm paying. And then you, now you've readjusted your thinking to like comment might go for eight grand next year. Who knows? It won't everyone settle down but so you start thinking about that stuff and then you're like well i guess that's a good deal 2700 for a comet hey awesome deal dude great seller gwts good luck with this so i know every time i see pinball people love random like just characters like every pinball machine if you're new if you're listening to this and you're new to there's better ones out there you should find more informative ones but and thank you for listening but uh you listen you're like half the time it takes me 10 minutes to decode what the hell letters i'm looking at you're like e h o h backslash infinity sign well is that a wire a house of horrors infinity couch version something i hate it that's something i do hate about the hobby the use of initials for things you're like just say the freaking word at least like it should be like a thing where they have if a thread has like those letters from some random thing like it should have like one place it has to have it written out so you have a cross reference like you oh ap for sale really great has british car in the play field and you're like ap ap oh yep austin powers right there's the third line the bibliotech lists austin powers so i can cross reference, the little one, the little subscript one, and I have a subscript down to the bibliotech, and that means I'm 1,000. And you go to the card catalog and look at the bibliotech, and it says, oh, yeah, that references Austin Powers. Great. I think we should knock $100 off any thread trying to sell something that doesn't list the name of it. It just has letters.
    14:31
    You cut your price in half. That should be a law. I think that law's going to pass. so as you can tell by how confusing this whole line of thinking has been i guess the key points are stop screaming at the manufacturers they're under a lot of pressure and they're leaving money on the table if you look at some of these for sale threads uh if you want it in the hobby save your money eat your vitamins and say your prayers as hulk hogan might have said at one point because it's going to cost you and if you want to flip and make a ton of money good on you but just know you're going to be about pinball for a while. But taking a sack of quarters down to the local watering hole and playing out in the wild ain't so bad either.
    15:16
    They always say, oh, it's just a box of lights. Well, no, it's not. Pinball is a lot more than that. I'm not going to go, it's the world under glass. Whoa, whoa, man. No, it's fun. It's great. It's a wonderful hobby to be in. I love pinball. I've always loved pinball. but you're just fighting gravity with a silver ball, baby. Have fun. Do all you can. And if you're going for score, go for score. If you're going just to have fun, then just have fun and drink some beers with your buddies. And if you going to play dollar games well then take all your winnings every time you win money at a dollar game and stuff into a little jar and after 20 years you be able to buy a used comet
    15:58
    I kid. I digress. I hope this has been fun to listen to and if you disagree, that's okay. Again, I'm always stressing it's okay to disagree. Don't at me, bro. It's fine.
    16:13
    You could think 100% different than everything I've said here and that's fine. It's all good. Opinions are like buttholes. Everyone has one, for the most part, and they always stink. So, let's hope. Let's all say a collective pinball prayer.
    16:31
    First of all, for the family, friends, and loved ones of Lime and Sheets, I should have led with that, but I don't have any structure in my brain or in my show. He passed recently. real shock to the whole pinball world.
    16:47
    It was a weird day. It was like meatloaf, and then it was Louis Anderson. If you don't know him, that's okay. And then Lyman Sheets. I was like, damn. I don't think Lyman Sheets would be third build on that. I think he'd bump Louis Anderson, but I don't know. Everyone has their own. It's not a competition. Second of all, I think we should all say a collective prayer that supply chains get back up to levels and pricing levels out a little bit and people gain maybe a little tiny tad of self-control with pricing. I don't want to say self-control. Hopefully the market adjusts down that us working jerks can still go out there and get a decent machine to fix up and call their own.
    17:30
    And if you're a flipper, please stop. Unless you're making hundreds of thousands a year, then I guess maybe I should be a flipper. I like how I end a show and then continue to keep talking. that's like you know when you're sitting in a meeting and they're like ah it's gonna be a short meeting but then they just keep going you're like you said it was gonna be a short meeting and then they're at a perfect stopping point and then they're like all right now let's all do a stretch and then when we come back we're gonna do that we're gonna show you what we just talked about in a spreadsheet you're like no you said i was gonna be able to leave i was just putting i was getting up i was putting on my hat i was ready to leave uh i know i just ramble on i love the hearing my own stupidity. What can I tell you? I hope you found it enjoyment or entertaining or something or another. And if not, just turn me off. That's fine too. That's all I have for pinball pricing. I don't know what to tell you other than it's a wild ride every day. You go and look at the pinball marketplace on the pin side and you go, wow. I do love that it does kind of jump on the people that are obviously insane, which is good.
    18:37
    It's always good to at least make fun of some of that crap. Save up your pennies, say your prayers, eat your vitamins. Brothers and sisters. Brothers, I guess. I mean, brothers is like a, let me tell you something, brother. It's kind of like a Hogan thing. I'm from Tampa. Alright, enough of this nonsense. Thanks for listening, everyone. Next week, I will come back with either nonsense or an interview, or maybe both. I don't know, who the hell knows maybe not, maybe nothing maybe I'll get a cease and desist from the pinballprices.com over forward slash don't at me bro ok see you later everyone loghornfeghorn out you're a loudmouth schnook pour it on Morris, give it everything she's got
    19:30
    Open the door, you'll find the secret To find the answer is to keep it You'll believe it when you find Something screaming across your mind Green slime
    20:00
    What can it be? What is the reason? Is this the end to all the demons? Is it just something in your head? Will you believe it when you're dead? Dream time, dream time What can it be, what is the reason?
    20:34
    Is this the end to all the dreams? Is it just something in your head? Will you believe it when you're dead? Green Slam!
    20:50
    Green Slam! That's all, folks. That's it, man. Game over, man. Game over.