Saturday Morning Spectacular!

Kaneda Pinball Podcasts YouTube Lives·video·1h 8m·held·Nov 3, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Pinball market analysis: Avatar oversupply, Harry Potter hype, X-Men issues, LE pricing dysfunction.

Summary

Host discusses pinball market dynamics, manufacturer pricing strategy, and game quality issues. Major topics: James Cameron's Avatar disappointing UV lighting and oversupply concerns; Harry Potter as JJP's next major release with strong potential; X-Men plunger reliability problems; broader critique of limited edition pricing at $13K destroying collector value. Also includes tangential discussion of personal finance philosophy and political commentary.

Key Claims

James Cameron's Avatar will drop $5,000 in value within 6 months when Harry Potter releases, from $15,000 to ~$10,000
medium confidence · Host predicting secondary market behavior based on pattern observation
Jersey Jack produced ~1,000 James Cameron's Avatar without sufficient demand, causing value collapse
medium confidence · Host speculation on production volume vs. market demand
X-Men was rushed to market and inadequately tested, resulting in plunger/auto-plunger consistency issues affecting gameplay
medium confidence · Host citing George Gomez's normal 14-16 month development timeline; notes game had compressed schedule
James Cameron's Avatar's UV lighting feature does not deliver the visual effect promised in launch marketing
high confidence · Host direct observation and references Cary Hardy calling it out immediately in trailer
Elton John has held value better than other recent JJP LEs because it is 'the best shooting JJP game ever'
medium confidence · Host opinion on design quality correlation with secondary market value retention
Joe Katz is coding Harry Potter and produces better games than Keith P. Johnson at Jersey Jack
medium confidence · Host citing internal reputation; notes Katz coded Elton John and Wonka
John Wick (Premium/LE) will depreciate to ~$8,500 (45% loss) by end of next year from $13,000 MSRP
low confidence · Host prediction based on theme/mechanic evaluation
Metallica (LE) is the only recent limited edition that has held/increased value significantly ($17,000-$19,000 resale)
high confidence · Host citing actual resale offers received; confirmed by market observation
Limited editions should be capped at 500 units, not 1,000+, to preserve collector value
medium confidence · Host policy prescription based on market analysis

Notable Quotes

“if you buy a $15,000 Avatar it's going to be worth 10 G's in six months when Harry Potter drops so the question is why do you want to lose $5,000 like that's a lot of money to lose on one pinball machine”
[name withheld pending review] @ early segment — Core thesis on secondary market collapse driven by supply/theme competition
“I think there is an arrogance in pinball that we are above showing any sign that we were wrong right we got the demand wrong we were making too many right it's priced too high”
[name withheld pending review] @ market analysis segment — Manufacturer accountability critique; industry culture commentary
“you should not be a pinball designer if your game doesn't shoot amazingly well it it's just that simple”
[name withheld pending review] @ X-Men quality discussion — Design philosophy statement; baseline competency expectation
“I don't think it's going to have movie clips and I think what's gonna mess up Harry Potter is with muted Clips or it's not even gonna have movie clips”
[name withheld pending review] @ Harry Potter discussion — Pre-release concern about JJP's historical licensing execution weakness
“you could take $15,000 buy an James Cameron's Avatar and it will absolutely do nothing to change your life like it won't it won't broaden your horizons it won't be one of the best pinball experiences you've had”
[name withheld pending review] @ philosophy segment — Value/fulfillment critique extending beyond pinball market mechanics
“I never hyped Avatar like call me what you will like you can you can insult me all you want but don't ever say I hyped Avatar because I never hyped Avatar okay”
[name withheld pending review] @ opening segment — Clarification of public record and community perception management
“there's way more tiny LEDs in Elton John and G&R I feel like than in Avatar”
[name withheld pending review] @ Avatar critique — Specific design comparison; underutilization of premium components

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyJames Cameron's AvatargameHarry Pottergame X-Mengame Joe Katzperson Keith P. JohnsonpersonMetallica (LE)game

Signals

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product_concern: Avatar CE's headline UV lighting feature does not deliver the visual effect shown in marketing; appears to be hardware/production execution issue rather than design concept problem
high · Host: 'they misook like you know Plastics glowing for the real desired effect of what the the video showed in the launch video'; 'Carrie Hardy called it out right away in the trailer'
?
product_concern: X-Men has widespread plunger/auto-plunger consistency failures affecting skill shot execution; issue persists in latest builds; rushed development likely responsible
high · Host: 'I know there is an issue I know that when you plunge the ball is not going all the way around like it should'; 'game was rushed to Market and it was a very ambitious game'
$
market_signal: Avatar CE pricing in severe decline; $15K MSRP machines expected to sell for ~$10K within 6 months post-Harry Potter launch; represents structural demand problem not temporary adjustment
medium · Host: 'you're Gonna Lose $5,000 in six months when Harry Potter comes out'; 'I literally can almost guarantee that if you buy a $15,000 Avatar it's going to be worth 10 G's'
$
market_signal: Current LE pricing strategy ($13K) breaks collector market mechanics; insufficient demand to justify large production runs (1,000+ units) while pricing prevents value appreciation; caps value at or below MSRP
high · Host: 'at 13,000 gang because the reality is this at $133,000 like not much is ever gonna go up in value'; 'if you lose all of that and you eliminate any secondhand value or increase in value to a limited edition version of a game you absolutely destroy the collector nature of the Hobby'
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Transcript

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0:03

going live in three two one we're live all right let's do this let's get let's see if we get more than 15

0:38

okay let me let everybody know over here we're live we're going to do a fun show

0:47

today you know look if only 15 people are going to join we're going to open it

0:55

up let's do this I'm excited to talk Pinball it's a beautiful day here we're g to get this going right about now I'm not using the mic I just want to I want to see if we can get more than uh look we've already got more people we've already got more people because we open this up you cheap bastards won't pay for uh for patreon um the sound is good don't you have to pay for YouTube premium to chat no you don't you don't your chat right now you don't have to pay for YouTube premium I don't have YouTube premium what's going on either you know or you don't know I mean we've already eclipsed these 14 people we had on patreon only um what's up everybody we're gonna talk pinball this is good this will just drive more people to the patreon it'll drive more people to subscribing I mean you really you really should subscribe if you don't I mean the podcasts are great we're putting up two to three shows a week uh over the years I think if you followed my advice you've made out like a bandit if you did not follow my advice you probably lost a lot of money now I'm gonna come clean i' I've been clean about this topic forever there are people who are saying that I've been overly Shilling out 's Adventures in Wonderland and too critical of other games someone said I hyped Avatar I never hyped Avatar like call me what you will like you can you can insult me all you want but don't ever say I hyped Avatar because I never hyped Avatar okay I've been honest about Avatar they can't get the UV lighting to work we're GNA talk about that but I look here's the deal with Alice and I've said this about Alice from day one you're not going to make any money on Alice if you are buying Alice because you think it's GNA be a collectible that's going to go up in price I just don't see that happening and that's been my honest take on the game and and look and I look I've told this to Melvin I'll tell it to everybody the reason why it just doesn't have enough in it to become you know this oh my gosh I got to get one of those 500 and they're all spoken for and getting your paws on one Paul Patrol this is Sky getting your paws on one is not going to be that hard so I did do the hype train no I look look I look I thought Avatar was gonna deliver way more way more magic than it does and I thought that Jersey Jack with all of its lighting and all of its tiny LEDs the thing I don't like about Avatar gang is they don't utilize their tiny LEDs very well there's way more tiny LEDs in Elton John and G&R I feel like than in Avatar I just don't think the game like I just don't think the game like Wows I I don't I think it's beautiful but the actual like overall game itself it's just all right all right like it's it's like neither here nor there I also just I think if anyone buys a CE for $15,000 You're Gonna Lose $5,000 in six months when Harry Potter comes out I mean I literally can almost guarantee that if you buy a $15,000 Avatar it's going to be worth 10 G's in six months when Harry Potter drops so the question is why do you want to lose $5,000 like that's a lot of money to lose on one pinball machine especially because here's the thing if you really want an avatar just wait just wait they're G to be so easy to get like there's not even going to be uh any difficulty getting one the same way there's not even a difficulty getting an Elton John CE I think a lot of the Elton John CE Fanboys are eating some Humble Pie because the game's still sitting in boxes at dros and now they're starting to sell for a th000 off then they'll sell for 2,000 off the the Elon have held value better because it's a better it's the best shooting jjp game ever um these goggles are sky from Paul Patrol uh look how many pin heads are into Harry Potter um it's a good question it's a good question because I think Harry Potter is not going to sell as well as Back to the Future it I mean it's a big property but I do agree that Harry Potter is like The Next generation's Star Wars game right it's like it's like the Star Wars for Millennials Millennials don't really have the money to buy pinball I like if someone just made a better Star Wars game it would outsell Harry Potter if someone made a better uh Toy if someone made Toy Story one it would sell better than Harry Potter the good news is about Potter and sorry I'm just moving this out of the way the good news about Potter is that it's it's a good theme for pinball because it's got magic and it's got you know casting spells and lightning bolts and Wands and castles and flying cars and quidd or squid whatever the hell it's called you know it's got dumble dwarf it's got candles that flicker it's got you know boarding school robes I don't know like it's got everything it's got everything you need to make I think a world underglass and that's why Harry Potter is good um the wives will love Harry Potter yeah I think a lot of women read those books I know when I was um when I was around when those books were new it was all my female friends were diving into them I think women do read more than men just overall and children read a lot so I think um but here's the thing that I'm worried about with Harry Potter gang it's it's it's it's like I just worry that Jersey Jack is gonna once again just find a way to mess it up I I don't know any other way to talk about jjp with some of these big IPS they just find a way to mess it up and I think the way they're going to mess up Harry Potter is with muted Clips or it's not even gonna have movie clips and I think what's gonna mess up Harry Potter is like Jersey Jacks well let me let me take a step back I'm happy because it's clear that Harry Potter is going to be Joe Catz and I think Joe Katz is coding the better games at Jersey Jack right now Joe Catz coded Elton John he coded Wonka which I don't think we give enough credit now Jack didn't hand Joe Catz the assets to put the movie clips into Wonka but the code in general in Willie Wonka is better than than what Keith Johnson's been putting in the games um if jjp didn't make Avatar CE and they know that they're not going to do good why don't they announce that they're only going to make 500 like okay so the the question is why don't they wake up read the room and make a move that actually preserves the value of those games because at 1,000 Avatar CES without much demand they're going to plummet in value at 500 the value will hold much stronger the reason why they're not going to do it I think one word I think arrogance arrogance I think there is an arrogance in pinball that we are above showing any sign that we were wrong right we got the demand wrong we were making too many right it's priced too high I think there is a level of arrogance and unwillingness to bend by the pinball manufacturers it's the same stupidity of making a thousand John Wick Le a thousand Venom l a thousand I I don't think they sold a thousand Elton John CES I just think think there's a level of arrogance that I don't know makes these companies seem out a touch with the reality of the market so I I don't think I think all CES and Le should be 500 I do sometimes they're going to sell quickly like Metallica sometimes they're not because at 13,000 gang because the reality is this at $133,000 like not much is ever gonna go up in value there's there's like and every once in a while having a game where like someone could scalp it for money like it's not the end of the world like you kind of need some of that if you lose all of that and you eliminate any secondhand value or increase in value to a limited edition version of a game you absolutely destroy the collector nature of the Hobby and I know like a lot of people don't care about that you don't care if that gets blown up you think it's bad in the first place and you're happy to see some of these rich wios who have scalped and made money all these years lose their shirt in the modern pinball Marketplace I for one I for one would much rather we just find a happy medium which is what it used to be because here's the thing when game when Ellie were 8500 then abso freak freaking lutely the demand was so high at that price point make a th000 right they're 8,500 bucks sure you could have sold a thousand Ghostbusters a thousand Walking Deads a thousand you know Batman's a thousand go down the list of games like Tron you could Tron was like six grand for the Le the problem now is that the Ellie are 13 at 13 you don't make a th and at 13 you make less than 500 so it's all stupid and like like only Metallica has been hard to get and only Metallica has gone up in value if you want a Metallica Le right now you're looking at 17 to $19,000 I mean those are the prices I've been offered for a spot 17 to

Harry Potter will be designed by Joe Katz and is JJP's biggest seller to date

high confidence · Host stating as established fact; references KB context confirming HP shipped 1,800+ units

“at $13,000 you don't make a thousand and at $13,000 you make less than 500 so it's all stupid”

[name withheld pending review] @ LE pricing analysis — Economic logic on pricing elasticity in LE market

Stern Pinballcompany

business_signal: Jersey Jack produced estimated 1,000 Avatar CEs without corresponding market demand; results in prolonged inventory at distributors and rapid secondary market price collapse

medium · Host: 'at 1,000 Avatar CES without much demand they're going to plummet in value'; 'the same way there's not even a difficulty getting an Elton John CE'

sentiment_shift: Community opinion shift on lead X-Men coder Weisson; perceived as technically weak; internal Jersey Jack team reportedly brought in to salvage/fix his code contributions

medium · Host: 'from what I've heard from people internally over there it it was a mess and they have to like bring in new people to help like save the game from his ideas'

design_philosophy: Host establishes clear baseline: 'you should not be a pinball designer if your game doesn't shoot amazingly well' — flow/shooting mechanics now expected minimum standard, not differentiator

high · Host: 'if you're you shouldn't be a pinball designer if your game doesn't shoot amazingly well it it's just that simple you should not be a pinball designer if you can't make a game shoot amazingly well'

rumor_hype: Host states Joe Katz confirmed as designer/coder for Harry Potter; positions as positive signal given his Elton John and Wonka work history

high · Host: 'it's clear that Harry Potter is going to be Joe Katz and I think Joe Katz is coding the better games at Jersey Jack right now'

product_strategy: Host advocates for 500-unit LE caps instead of 1,000+ units to preserve secondary market appreciation and maintain collector FOMO dynamics; current oversupply strategy destroying collector segment

medium · Host: 'I think all CES and Le should be 500'; 'at 500 the value will hold much stronger'; 'you kind of need some of that if you lose all of that and you eliminate any secondhand value'

industry_signal: Host attributes manufacturing/pricing mistakes to industry-wide 'arrogance' — unwillingness to publicly acknowledge demand miscalculations or adjust strategy to preserve collector value

medium · Host: 'I think there is an arrogance in pinball that we are above showing any sign that we were wrong right'; 'there is a level of arrogance and unwillingness to bend by the pinball manufacturers'

design_concern: Avatar CE lacks sufficient mechanical toys/interactive features to justify $15K premium positioning; design is visually impressive but mechanically/gameplay-wise underwhelming relative to price

high · Host: 'it's just all right all right like it's it's like neither here nor there'; 'you put X-Men next to John Wick and X-Men looks like it's got three times as much in it'

personnel_signal: Keith P. Johnson (Stern) gaining reputation advantage over Weisson (Stern) and other JJP coders; Godzilla/King Kong projects positioned as potential quality benchmarks

medium · Host: 'Keith has the best teams on his games and it shows and I think uh King Kong is gonna be insane if he does what he did to Godzilla with King Kong'