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Episode 1129: "Star Wars LE Will Be $18,000"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·35m 40s·analyzed·Aug 29, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.041

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Star Wars LE secondary market price of $18k; criticizes Stern design vs. boutique competition.

Summary

Kaneda predicts Star Wars LE will sell for $18,000 on the secondary market despite internal Stern source calling the game 'okay.' He announces buying a Star Wars LE despite concerns about Stern's premium pricing and design compromises, contrasts Stern's mass-production approach unfavorably with Spooky Pinball's limited production strategy, and criticizes boutique manufacturers like Barrels for poor market research and lack of FOMO-generating scarcity tactics.

Key Claims

  • Star Wars LE (770 units) will sell out instantly and command $18,000 on secondary market

    high confidence · Kaneda's repeated prediction based on theme appeal, scarcity, and lack of European distribution (all 770 in US)

  • Internal Stern source described Star Wars game as 'okay' not magical

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'And my contact at Stern said the following: Star Wars is okay. That's what he said. Okay.'

  • Stern makes 'world's greatest $7,000 machines' but 'world's worst $13,000 machines'

    high confidence · Kaneda's core philosophical critique of Stern's pricing-to-quality ratio

  • Spooky's next game (999 units) will sell for $18,000-$20,000 or potentially crack $20,000

    medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on Spooky's limited production and strong FOMO strategy vs. competitors

  • No European distribution planned for Star Wars LE; all 770 units stay in US

    high confidence · Kaneda cites Carrie Hardy statement: 'Kong had something, 932 Star Wars 770. Right now, there isn't European distribution.'

  • Harry Potter is experiencing mechanical issues (diverter alignment problems) in early builds

    medium confidence · Kaneda observing Harry Potter forum: 'I go into the Harry Potter thread and I'm seeing a lot more troubleshooting than I normally would like to see'

  • Alice will end up making ~400 units, not full 500 contracted

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think they're going to end up making somewhere around 400 Alices. They're not going to make all 500.'

  • Dutch Pinball and Cointaker will pay 5% of new 15% tariff costs

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'it's good news this week that Cointaker and Dutch, they're going to pay for 5% of the tariff, which is now 15%'

  • Spooky will limit next game production to 999 units

    high confidence · Spooky Luke confirms in chat during live episode: Luke types confirmation Kaneda reads as '999'

Notable Quotes

  • “Star Wars LE, 770 only... The 770 will sell out instantly. All right, instantly.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core prediction about scarcity-driven FOMO for Star Wars LE

  • “Stern makes the world's greatest $7,000 pinball machines. They make the world's worst $13,000 pinball machines. And that's the problem.”

    Kaneda @ mid-segment — Encapsulates Kaneda's core critique of Stern's pricing strategy

  • “My source says it's okay. And so if it's just okay, I'm still here to tell you right now... on the secondhand market, Star Wars LEs are going to go for $18,000.”

    Kaneda @ mid-segment — Connects internal Stern feedback ('okay') to market prediction

  • “Unlike Stern, unlike Jersey Jack, unlike everybody else out there, Spooky Pinball has really figured out the one simple thing... you don't want is for that company to just keep making more.”

    Kaneda @ Spooky Luke segment — Explains why Spooky's limited production model commands higher secondary prices

  • “Spooky Pinball is going to sell more games in five minutes than you will sell a Dune all year.”

    Kaneda @ Barrels criticism segment — Harsh contrast of Spooky's demand vs. Barrels' sales struggles

  • “Why would a pinball manufacturer ever say, I don't want a day one sellout? That really is like the weirdest thing to say.”

    Kaneda @ Barrels/David criticism — Challenges Barrels founder's claimed manufacturing philosophy

  • “I really do feel like Jody goes to like a Slayer concert and like looks around is like this is what we need. When Jody needs to go to like Comic-Con.”

    Kaneda @ theme criticism segment — Critique of Stern leadership's theme selection process

  • “You heard it here. Spooky Luke is going to give Kaneda number 999.”

    Kaneda @ Spooky Luke segment — Exclusive allocation of final unit in production run announced live

Entities

KanedapersonSpooky LukepersonStar Wars: Fall of the EmpiregameStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBarrels of FuncompanyDutch Pinballcompany

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Boutique manufacturers struggling with supply chain: Turner Pinball potentially closing, Multimorphic unable to scale production, Portal delayed 8+ months post-announcement

    medium · Kaneda: 'Turner Pinball is doing great. I just I don't hear from Chris... I don't see people unboxing Merlin's Arcade... I think it's gonna be maybe the end of Turner... I don't think anyone's getting Portal'

  • ?

    business_signal: Tariff impact: Dutch Pinball and Cointaker absorbing 5% of new 15% tariff costs; community blaming manufacturers rather than government policy

    high · Kaneda: 'it's good news this week that Cointaker and Dutch, they're going to pay for 5% of the tariff, which is now 15%... don't be like a complainer. It's just the way the world works'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Spooky Pinball's 999-unit production limit strategy creates superior FOMO vs. Stern/Jersey Jack's higher production runs; next Spooky game expected to command $18-20k secondary vs. Star Wars $18k

    high · Kaneda: 'Spooky will make 999... they made Rick and Morty 750... no more. They could easily sell 3,000... but Spooky has the enthusiasm' vs. Stern's Star Wars with only 8 pages hype

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Barrels of Fun/Dune: poor market research, insufficient demand generation, founder's anti-sellout philosophy misunderstands FOMO business model

    high · Kaneda: 'David said... I would hate to have a day one sellout... that's a stupid thing to say. Spooky Pinball is going to sell more games in five minutes than you will sell Dune all year'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Stern characterized as mass-production 'Mazda Miata' manufacturer making reliable but uninspired games; boutiques (Spooky) offer superior aesthetic/mechanical innovation

Topics

Secondary market pricing and FOMO dynamicsprimaryStern vs. boutique manufacturer competition and design philosophyprimaryPremium pricing sustainability ($13k+ LEs) and market saturationprimaryStar Wars: Fall of the Empire reception and internal quality feedbackprimaryLimited production strategy and collectability (Spooky vs. competitors)primaryTheme licensing trends and Stern's repetitive IP strategysecondaryEarly-access games vs. waiting for code maturitysecondaryBoutique manufacturer supply chain and labor challengessecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda is critical of Stern's premium pricing model, design compromises, and repetitive themes, though he expresses enthusiasm for Star Wars specifically and praise for Spooky Pinball's strategy. Overall skepticism about industry pricing sustainability and market saturation dominates.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.107

Lonely road, take me home to the place that we went wrong. Where'd you go now? Instead it goes down and I'm still here all alone. I'll sit, I'll sit, I'll sit, I'll sit, I'll sit, I'll sit, I'll sit. Objective Pinball Podcaster left in the pinball space. I got my invite to Stern Pinball September 10th. Am I going to go hang out with all the shills or will I play it at Automated? We got Spooky Luke in the house. We're doing this live, baby. We're going to do it anyway. Kaneda was out last night drinking 12-year-old Yamazaki whiskey from Japan. And I'm going to tell you right now, the theme of this podcast is simply this. I am buying a Star Wars LE. And the reason is simple. I'm already on a list. I'm already going to give my deposit. As I've told everybody, wait and see is the way to go. But, and it's always the but, and people forget this. The big but in the wait and see is if it's a theme like Star Wars, if it's a theme like Harry Potter, if it's a theme like, I don't know, maybe Pokemon, you're not going to be able to get an LE for less than MSRP. Now, the reason why Harry Potter is an exception to that rule is it's unlimited. But trust me, if Jersey Jack was only making a thousand Harry Potter CEs, they'd be going for 18 to $20,000 right now. They would have sold out instantly. Now, here's the thing about this. Star Wars LE, 770 only, right? It feels a little bit like an only. I mean, it's not 500, but remember the Steve Ritchie game was only 800 units. I say only, but that's really when Stern was bumping up past 500. I think they did like 600 on Munsters and when Star Wars came out, 800. Now, this is John Borg. This is a new Star Wars game, Fall of the Empire. Kind of a weird title for a company like Stern. I mean, a lot of the jokes, the jokes going around there, that's appropriately titled for Stern because people think their empire is falling. but I'm just going to tell you this right now. I'm buying this game and I'm going to tell you this right now. Don't cancel your subscription. If I don't like what I see, I will sell this game for more than I paid for it. And mark my words. And I know a lot of you are mad about this, but mark my words. The 770 will sell out instantly. All right, instantly. Now, Dan Jansen has just said, you're not buying this game. Dan, I'm buying it. And if I don't plan to keep it, I will sell it this time for a profit. Now, look, my show covers the pinball market, and I've been doing this for 12 years. And why shouldn't I, every once in a while, if I'm covering the market of pinball, speculating on prices on every single game, why am I not allowed to buy a game? And if I don't want it, sell it for the fair market value. when I did this with Metallica Remastered and I told everybody to get one and most people slept on it. Then people screamed at me. They yelled at me. So I ended up giving it away at cost. And I'm just here to tell you right now, I'm not a bad guy. I'm just a guy that every once in a while wants to make some extra coin on a game if I want to. Now look, if Star Wars is great, I am going to set it up in my garage and keep it and play it and enjoy it. Now, I want Star Wars to be great. I don't want to flip it. I don't want to pass it on to somebody else. And I think it needs to be great. This is going to be a real moment. I'm worried, and I'll tell you why I'm worried. I have a guy internally over at Stern, and I asked him about Star Wars. I said, Star Wars, tell me, come on. Is this finally going to be the Star Wars game we've been waiting for? Is this going to be the next Godzilla? Is this going to be the game that galvanizes all of us? Is it going to give these shills that are going to spend $600 to $1,000 out of their own pocket to fly to Stern Pinball to make ads for Star Wars Pinball and get a free dinner from Stern? Is this going to be worth it? And my contact at Stern said the following, Star Wars is okay. That's what he said. Okay. It's okay. Like when I heard that, I was like, wait, wait, wait, what? It's not magical. It's not, oh my God, I can't wait for you to see it. It's okay. When I heard that, it reminded me of one simple thing. Why do I have high expectations for a Stern? I mean, in the end, right? In the end, like I've always said this. Stern makes the world's greatest $7,000 pinball machines. They do. They make the world's greatest $7,000 pinball machines. I think their bomb is somewhere around $3,000 to $4,000. And they should make $3,000 on top of that. They make the world's best $7,000 pinball machines. They make the world's worst $13,000 pinball machines. And that's the problem. is we literally are paying for what we're not getting. And so my fear in Star Wars now, and after hearing that it's okay, is that Stern, even if it is Star Wars, they cut corners. They probably had John Borg yank stuff out. And it's always been a compromise with this company and nothing they're gonna make is even gonna remotely look as good as Harry Potter. It's not gonna look as good as Evil Dead. It's not gonna look as good as Dune. it's going to be a Stern. And every time Stern releases a new game, I think we like expect it somehow to be just better. Like we expect them to elevate, to innovate, to like make their platform more exciting. In the end, it's going to be a Stern. It's not going to be anything other than that. And look, I 100% think Stern makes the most fun pinball in the world. They do. Nobody makes a game that's more fun. But to me, to use a cargument, Stern Pinball makes Mazda Miatas. A Mazda Miata is more fun than most expensive cars. And it's also really fun because it doesn't cost a lot of money. But if you charged $100,000 for a Mazda Miata, all of a sudden, I'm looking at it differently. All of a sudden, I don't feel like it's worth it. And to me, that's Stern. It's the greatest $7,500 LE on the planet. At most, at most, I would give them $10,000 for an LE. They're now $13,000 for every single one. And they're about to raise the prices. I don't think they're going to raise it on Star Wars. But my point is they're a large, mass-produced company. This is the high-volume pinball. And so I hope Star Wars is amazing. I'm dreaming it's going to be amazing. We're going to see it in like a week. But my source says it's okay. And so if it's just okay, I'm still here to tell you right now, the LEs, even though I hate saying this, they're going to sell for $13,000. And here's my prediction. On the secondhand market, Star Wars LEs are going to go for $18,000. And I'm just here to tell you that. Like you can hate me, but I'm not the one who's going to control this market. I'm not going to make it $18,000. The market is going to make it that it's going to go for that. And I'm just like here to remind everybody, the reason why it's going to go for that is very simply this. We have been getting themes for the longest time that nobody wants. The majority of the pinball buying demographic has been unsatisfied with the themes we been getting over the last three to four years Star Wars came out eight years ago right 2017 It's been a long time. That game was never great. It's okay. It's not great. The art was bad. The mechs were bad. The TIE Fighter on a spring was embarrassing. It's an embarrassing translation of Star Wars. John Borg is going to put more toys, more mechs in it. I think it's going to be more of a world under glass, but it's still going to be a stern. It's still going to be a stern. Now, when I say still a stern, it's not all negative, gang. It's going to have great rules. It's going to have the assets. It's going to have movie clips. It's going to be like reliable. It's going to be all that. And it's going to have a new screen. It's going to be bigger. Hopefully there's more like RGB full LED lights in the game, but it's still going to be a stern, you know? And so like, but in even so, think about it like this. We now know that there's going to be no distribution in Europe. OK, so that means all 770 in the US. That's going to it's going to be insta sellout. Carrie Hardy just said Kong had something 932 Star Wars 770. Right now, there isn't European distribution. So does that mean it's going to be easier to get one? The answer is yes and no. while it's going to be more for America, I never in a million years ever believed that Stern sends half of its game overseas. They don't send half of their LEs overseas. That has always been the greatest lie in the history of pinball. That when Stern was making 500 LEs, people thought that 250 were going to Europe. Come on, it's more like 40, more like, you know, 10 in Australia, 30 in Europe. They were never sending 250 LEs to Europe. It was always a lie to create FOMO in America. I feel like 85% of games always end up in America. So, you know, this European distribution problem, it was the same thing with the first Star Wars. People forget this. It was the same thing. They had to find a third party sort of like distributor to sort of allocate the games there because of how the licensing agreement shaked out. Like it's the same thing. It's no different than the first Star Wars game. We're still going to see some LEs make it over to Europe. But trust me, Star Wars LE without even seeing it will be an $18,000 LE. And Kaneda, this time around, I have the right to do what I want with my game. Now, here's the thing. Spooky Luke's here, and I want to just tell you guys something. I'm going to tease something right now. We're going to do, Kaneda and Spooky Pinball, we're going to do something really awesome for Kaneda Club members. I haven't done this before ever. I've been talking very kindly, if you will, about Spooky Pinball. It's all been authentic. I'm not Win Schilling Spooky Pinball, even though I have a shirt that says Spooky Shill that they sent me. I believe in their talents. I believe in the company. I just really like spooky pinball. I'm allowed to have favorites, right? It's just the way life works. I like the way they're transparent. I like the way they talk to me. I like the way they run their company. I like the way, uh, I like the vibes of that company. I think that's the best. Like I just, the vibes over at spooky. It's all about vibing. You know, Brenda's sisters here, Gen Z is all about vibing. Like if the vibe is good, life is good. And I agree with that. I think it's something good. But one of the things that Gen Z's kind of made sense is they're all about the vibes. Everything else they think about is stupid. But the thing is, the vibes are good over at Spooky. They make you feel good about buying from them. When they go live and they show you their company, it makes you feel good, right? And so we're going to do something with Spooky's next title, which we all know is going to be an instant sellout. It's going to sell out instantly. And I've been telling people this for a long time. If you're not on a list to get Spooky's next game, you're going to be upset. And I think Spooky's next game, which fully loaded, Luke is here, fully loaded with a topper, with butter cabinet. It's the way you got to go. Look, if you don't go butter, what's wrong with you? Butter cabinet's amazing. If fully loaded, I think the game will be somewhere around 14K, right? 14, 15K, around there. All in, all in. And it's still going to sell for $18,000 to $20,000 on the secondhand market. I actually think this Spooky Game will go like crack 20 grand. And I'm just saying, I'm going to give you my reason why. Because unlike Stern, unlike Jersey Jack, unlike everybody else out there, Spooky Pinball has really figured out the one simple thing that all the other companies have not figured out. When you buy something for a lot of money and it's part of your collection, the one thing you don't want is for that company to just keep making more. Keep making new additions. Keep making more. The fact that Stern Pinball, the fact that Jersey Jack, the fact that everybody else, They just make you fear that one day they're just going to run more of the game. And I think pinball companies need to start declaring this is it. We're not making any more Jaws. We're not making any more like Deadpools. We're not making any more Batman 66s. The thing is, they're gonna like Stern's going to make a 50th anniversary of Star Wars. So if you go buy a $10,000 Star Wars premium, you're going to lose three to four thousand dollars over two years because then they're going to make a nicer anniversary edition but spooky pinball will make somewhere around 888 beetle juices and then never make any more they made rick and morty i think it was 750 rick and morty's correct me if i'm wrong luke 750 rick and morty's no more no more they could easily sell more. They could have sold 3000 Rick and Morty's, but no more. They made more TNAs because TNA was never limited. And then I don't think they're going to make more of that. But that's the thing is like, so when you buy Beetlejuice, you know that on planet earth, there will only be 888. Now. Okay. So Luke, how many, are you making 999 of the next game or are you making 888? How many are you making? We got Luke here. He's typing in the chat. So this would be a nice, I don't know if it's a Canadian exclusive or people know this. Luke, how many of the next game are you making? Is it 999? Okay, great. All right, great. You know, Luke, can I have game number 999? Has someone grabbed it? Because I'm going to get this game, but I would love to have the last one off the line. If no one else has it, I would love to have the last one you guys make. I'll put you down. Thank you. Okay, so you heard it here. Spooky Luke is going to give Kaneda number 999. Okay, now here's the deal. I think this game's an instant sellout, and I'm not going to talk about it just yet. I'm going to tease that we're going to be able to make some of you Kaneda Club members very happy if you get shut out of this game. So I want to thank Spooky Luke for, A, giving me game number 999. That's amazing. I can't wait to get it. I also want to thank them for what they're doing for the Canada Club. And I think you guys are going to be very happy when you hear what we're going to do. It's just really amazing. It's just really amazing the goodwill of this company. So, okay. So that game is going to sell out. So, you know, look, I've been in the Harry Potter thread. And I don't know about you guys. A lot of people are waiting for their potters still. The game has been very successful for Jersey Jack. I've heard it's like selling as well as Guns N' Roses, which was a tremendous seller for Jersey Jack. The one thing I'm a little bit worried about, I go into the Harry Potter thread and I'm seeing a lot more troubleshooting than I normally would like to see with a brand new game. I think these games are having, you know, some issues with getting the diverter lined up with, you know, some of the mechanical stuff. And so, you know, hopefully it all gets sorted out. You never want to see that though. And you know that always why the later builds are kind of better because you know they make tweaks to the games And so especially with Potter I just never I never really understood why anyone wanted Potter right away They making an endless amount of every edition and the code not done To me, it was a no-brainer that if you just wait six months, you wait a year, you can get a Potter CE for probably $12,000, maybe less. And with Sonic the Hedgehog around the corner from Steve Ritchie, which is going to be amazing, And, you know, it always baffles me that people want something before it's done. It's like serving someone an undercooked meal. It's a movie without the special effects. I am not one of those people that wants to get a game and, well, you're like Kennedy. You don't get any games. Like, no, but I just don't want to get a game and have it be like .71 code and wait two years to get everything in it. I want to play the game the way it's supposed to be played and with everything in it that's a wow. I still think that the game to buy this year to collect is Jaws 50th. I don't think they're going to make any more. I think whatever they've made is what they're going to make. I don't think they're going to make any more between now and the end of the year. I think Jaws 50th, they will make less than $1,000. It will end up being the Jaws that everybody wants. It will be more rare than the LE. And with that sparkling play field, and they fixed all the mechs. Like Jaws 50th is the game everybody's going to want. So, you know, that's where we're at. So I was also in the Alice's Adventures in Wonderland thread, and I was reading people questioning Kaneda as if I would tell people BS about the topper and the supplier. Like, let me tell you guys this right now. Melvin's one of my best friends, not just in pinball, but in life. We talk almost daily. And Melvin's an awesome dude. He's no BS. and he tells it like it is. And so everything I said about the topper was accurate. I'm not making stuff up. If I ever give you news about Dutch pinball, it's 100% accurate, okay? Like Raz is next, accurate. Raz is gonna be like 300 games, accurate. You're not gonna see 500 like Alice. He never wanted to make 500. Barry made him make 500. Like Barry bumped the number. Look, I always tell him, and he feels the same way. Alice should have been 300 or 250. You know, 500, it's a lot. Are they going to make all 500 by the end of the year? No. Are they going to end up having to give refunds? Yes. Is the game like beautiful but kind of overly simple? Yes. Is it supposed to be like more of a Bally Williams play? Yes. You know, and they're waiting on the new supplier. The old supplier of the toppers is, I think, still making some. but they're looking for a new supplier. And it's just the way it is. Nothing's a lie. Nothing's a conspiracy. If you're waiting on your topper, you're just going to wait a little bit longer because the reason I said that is people thought, I think Melissa, a coin taker, they thought that maybe all the new games are going to come with toppers and the answer is no, they're not. They're still waiting to figure all that out. There are going to be some but not like every game's got a topper right now. I don't understand why people are like, Canada's full of BS. Like I literally have not been BSing anybody ever. Really? Like what have I been wrong on? I mean, seriously, it's just, it's amazing to me that, because people don't like me, that anything I say is BS. Like Raza's next. I will bet you my bottom dollar that Raza comes out before Back to the Future. And, you know, I think they're going to end up making somewhere around 400 Alice's. They're not going to make all 500. You know, it's good news this week that Cointaker and Dutch, they're going to pay for 5% of the tariff, which is now 15%. It's still crazy to me that people are blaming the companies making these games. They didn't put the tariffs in place. The government did. So like, what's the deal, gang? Like, oh, I signed a contract. No, no, no. You signed a contract to buy the game. If a tariff happens post your contract, you pay the piper. like i'm you know i it even annoys me that like dutch and coin taker have to even pay that like you're a grown adult buying a twelve thousand five hundred dollar toy and our government is now doing tariffs so it is what it is like don't be like a complainer it's just the way the world works and you know it's like you don't go into the gas station oh yeah gas was it was two dollars last month. Now it's three and I'm not going to, you know, I want to pay only two, like just grow up, like pay the tariff. Like it's, it is what it is. Um, you know, but Alice is a, you know, it's an interesting game. Like some people say it's a brick fest. Some people say it's not, it's not a brick fest. There's just not a lot in it. There's not a lot in it. And Melvin will be the first person to tell you that he took a John Papadiuk foam core game and made it a working game. Like that's always what it was supposed to be. Um, you know, I see more content from Carrie has been doing tours of Multimorphic, of Turner Pinball, of Barrels of Fun. I think those are great. When you look at these companies, I mean it. When I was looking at the Multimorphic one, I was like, man, it's not for the faint of heart being a pinball manufacturer. There's nobody really there. There's just a couple people putting stuff together. And that's the problem with these small boutiques. Like, you know, Jerry's like barely making like a game a day, even if that, right? And you could tell like the labor is the hard part. And, you know, you look at like all the parts and the wood and the plastics and the decals, and it really is like, wow. You know, I just – it's weird to me that there's so many independent pinball manufacturers, that all these smaller boutiques didn't like unite and just make one manufacturing facility that, you know, think about it. Like if you had 30 people in a small boutique manufacturing pinball facility, they could be making, you know, we're gonna do all the runs of Portal this month. Then we're gonna do all the runs of Predator. Then we're gonna do all the, like, you know what I'm saying? Like, it's just weird to me that they're all trying to do it independent and failing at it. Cause you're like waiting forever. like I don't think anyone's getting Portal like Portal was like announced like eight months ago like it's just it's a weird thing to me I don't think Turner Pinball is doing great I just I don't hear from Chris I don't see people unboxing Merlin's Arcade I think it's gonna be maybe the end of Turner I mean this I don't see how these companies release games that don't sell I think Barrels needs to figure out a way to get Dune sold I'm not seeing a lot of Dune unboxings you know I mean I don't know How many Star Wars is not going to help their cause? Is it Tron next or Walking Dead? I mean, everyone now knows that Back to the Future is coming, Sonic, Pokemon. I mean, it's just like I just don't think people want Ratboy, Timothy, Chamolay. I just don't think that's what we want. Dune is going to be the new Pirates of the Caribbean. No, it's not. Carrie, you think Dune is going to not sell when it's available, and you think three years from now people are going to spend $20,000, $30,000 on it? I don't care. I think you're 100% wrong. 100% wrong. I mean, let's not be silly here. Pirates of the Caribbean is absolutely loaded. It's also like Pirates is overrated. Pirates is overrated. Pirates is still the most overrated game. I mean, it's a great game for what it is. Again, but it's not worth $20,000. It's not worth $30,000. It's an assetless game. There literally is no Jack Sparrow in it. So as much as people can be like, I get it, but it doesn't capture for me the magic of those movies at all. And to me, at least Dune's got all the assets. It's got everything in it. So the problem with Dune is it has it all, but you don't even care about it all. Again, I just think David didn't do any market research. and when you don't do market research, you end up like this. You end up like having to fight for every single sale. You know, David said to me, he goes, Chris, I would hate to have a day one sellout and I literally, I said it, I was like, David, don't say stupid stuff like that. Like that's a stupid thing to say. Why would a pinball manufacturer ever say, I don't want a day one sellout? That really is like the weirdest thing to say It like of course you do bro Of course you do You going to watch spooky pinball sell more games in one hour than you can sell all year all year Spooky pinball is going to sell more games, not like spooky pinball is going to sell more games in five minutes. Then you will sell a dune all year. And you'd rather be in your shoes, like having to now, you know, put up content, make a victory lap around each single game going out. While spooky pinball is literally going to have 999 deposits in their bank account in less than an hour. So it's just like, I get that you can create this narrative that like, this is how you want to do it. It's not how you want to do it. You know, and I really do think like these companies, they just need to hear the more honest truth. And when they, you know, all these content creators and all the shows out there that just applaud everything they do, it's not helping them out. It's not helping them out at all. You know, and that's it. That's absolutely, I think David Mena day one sell me may have under us. No, come on. It doesn't mean underestimate the demand. Spooky Pinball knows the demand for its new game is way more than 999. That's all they're going to make. Smart. Stern Pinball is smart. They know the demand for Star Wars LE is higher than 770, but they need to get FOMO back. It's smart. Like I talked to Seth. I talked to this. This was my advice to Seth and George and Gary. You need to start lowering the LE number and that's what they're doing. They could sell it, but if they keep selling a thousand LEs, they're absolutely destroying the collectability of their brand. And so they're working to get that back. Smart, right? It's a smart move. and I think pinball is in a really precarious place right now. The prices are insane. There's so much available. I mean, if you go on and look at the amount of people trying to get rid of stuff in the thousands, all over the place, nothing is hard to get. Everything is readily available and I think the enthusiasm around every new game is gone. I think Spooky has the enthusiasm. There's only eight pages. I was shocked. stern pinballs star wars next only eight pages in the hype thread think about that for a minute that is ridiculous if if someone started a thread what do you think of kaneda it would have more than eight pages in one day can someone start that thread kaneda wanted to challenge pin side that in one day if you put up a what do you think of kaneda it'll get more than eight pages of commentary like nobody cares another star wars right and you know i kind of feel like they did it to themselves. Like Stern just did it to themselves. They've been going back to the same well over and over and over again. Star Wars, Marvel, Star Wars, Marvel, right? Dad Rock, Star Wars, Marvel over and over and over again. And they really, and when they try to go contemporary, they got it wrong. And what they don't realize is the one thing they haven't done enough of is nostalgia, right? It's just not Star Wars, nostalgia, more Ghostbusters, more Batman, more diehard more total recall more Conan the Barbarian more Matrix more Karate Kid more you know Ferris Bueller more Christmas Vacation more of everything more Breakfast Club they just don't understand it like Jody I really do feel like Jody goes to like a Slayer concert and like looks around is like this is what we need when Jody needs to go to like Comic-Con and other places and realize like other themes are out there. Now look, I think they're going to try to do Fallout and I think it's going to fail miserably. They really are. Fifth Element, Blade Runner. Yeah, Enzo, you're right. Where's this stuff? Big Trouble in Little China. It's out there. That license is out there. You know, it's no longer going to be made. Apparently, I think someone had it. They lost it. But Super Mario. You know, this is what we want. We want stuff. Donkey Kong. Imagine a Donkey Kong pinball machine with the ladders and it would be incredible. and the barrels rolling down, you know, make, instead of barrels, he's rolling the pinballs down at you and you have to like hit them back. Like you could, you could think about, you know, just, just the visualization of a Donkey Kong pinball machine in that iconic blue. And it would just be amazing. It'd be absolutely super cool. And I think nobody really wants to own a John Wick or a Venom, you know, Dungeons and Dragons was a flop. King Kong's been the biggest flop. King Kong has really been a really big flop. And, you know, it's probably interesting what Keith Elwin's going through now. Because he hasn't really had a flop like this since Avengers. And there was a lot of buildup to Kong, right? Everyone thought Kong was going to be the next Godzilla. It was anything but. It was anything but. Everybody look. It's Friday. It's Labor Day weekend. It's a long weekend. I want to thank each and every one of you for being a member of Canada's Pinball Podcast. I really appreciate it. I'm glad you're enjoying these lives. It actually makes it easier for me because when I do it like this, I don't have to edit the show. There's something about when I see myself talk, it's easier for me to articulate and not stumble. And I really love that Patreon finally has this live feature. I'm going to share these so you can watch it either like this or you can listen to the audio. I want to thank each and every one of you. I especially want to thank my club members who have appreciated this additional content and have upped their subscription amount. The majority of people are at $5 a month. I'm not going to raise that price. Patreon keeps telling me to do that. I'm not going to do it. But if in the kindness of your heart, you feel like, you know, as you're about to pull the trigger on a $13,000 pinball machine, that you might want to up it to $10,000 to 15 to 30 a month, I will happily give you a personal shout out for being a member of the raise the roof club. Um, but again, give what you can. That's always been how I run this show. Um, I, I feel proud to trailblaze in this space. When I first did this, you got to remember everybody, everybody called me an idiot. Everybody said, you know, no one was going to sign up. And, you know, years later, the most successful pinball podcast by a mile by a mile. And the reason we're that way. And I think this is the best pinball podcast community by a mile because we're the only ones. I mean, all of us, only ones that I think actually are free where we speak how we really feel. And in doing so, we've built a great bond, a great community. And we also have the respect of the manufacturers. Trust me, they don't respect the shills at all. They don't. Like, how can they? Like, they literally don't. And so when Kaneda comes a knocking. So my point is, like, so Stern invited me September 10th. And here's my thing. I'm not going. And I thank Zach for the invite. I just don't want to go and, like, be in the room with everybody the way they do it. I don't think it's, like, a good way to see the game for the first time. I think it's overcrowded. And I think it is designed to, like, you know, more for the shills. Now, what I am going to try to do is maybe go over there a little bit sooner. And just sign an NDA and see it. And I do feel like Canada should have a different experience. I just do. I just don't want to go and then like sit down at dinner next to all the shills and be like, yeah, man, I can't wait to make advertisements for this company. And then get kickbacks from my distributor friends who are running advertisements at the beginning of my show. Promo codes. Promo codes to help distributors sell their unsold inventory. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Never going to see that with Kaneda, all right? Everybody, happy Friday. Love you. Let's keep doing this. I'm going to end the podcast right now. Take it away. Jelly Roll and Machine Gun Kelly. I'm on that Machine Gun Kelly kick. I love it. You got to watch his videos, man. Dude had a total like convalescence and it's kind of amazing. I don't know anyone who's sleeping on this new album, Lost Americana. It is absolutely incredible. This is not from that, but trust me, Listen to Lost Americana from beginning to end, and it is a phenomenal album. Kaneda out. Thank you.
  • Star Wars hype thread on Pinside has only 8 pages (indicating low enthusiasm)

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball's Star Wars, next, only eight pages in the hype thread. Think about that for a minute. That is ridiculous.'

  • “If you go on and look at the amount of people trying to get rid of stuff in the thousands, all over the place, nothing is hard to get. Everything is readily available.”

    Kaneda @ market assessment segment — Diagnosis of market saturation affecting game enthusiasm

  • “Stern just did it to themselves. They've been going back to the same well over and over and over again. Star Wars, Marvel, Star Wars, Marvel.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Root cause analysis of declining Stern game enthusiasm

  • Jersey Jack Pinball
    company
    John Borgperson
    Harry Pottergame
    Jaws 50th Anniversarygame
    Dunegame
    King Konggame
    Alice's Adventures in Wonderlandgame
    Sonic the Hedgehoggame
    Metallica Remasteredgame
    Keith Elwinperson
    David (Barrels founder)person
    Melvinperson
    Turner Pinballcompany
    Multimorphiccompany
    Portalgame
    Carrie Hardyperson
    Cointakercompany
    Rick and Mortygame

    high · Kaneda: 'Stern makes the world's greatest $7,000 pinball machines... world's worst $13,000 machines... Stern Pinball makes Mazda Miatas.'

  • $

    market_signal: Secondary market saturation: widespread sales inventory on classified platforms; games described as 'readily available'; market enthusiasm declining across new releases

    high · Kaneda: 'If you go on and look at the amount of people trying to get rid of stuff in the thousands... nothing is hard to get. Everything is readily available'

  • ?

    community_signal: Spooky Luke confirmed as co-designer/technical lead; live episode announcement of exclusive unit #999 allocation to Kaneda creates community goodwill

    high · Spooky Luke in chat confirming 999-unit production; Kaneda announces: 'You heard it here. Spooky Luke is going to give Kaneda number 999.'

  • $

    market_signal: Star Wars LE at $13,000 MSRP with predicted $18,000 secondary market price; broader concern about unsustainable $13k+ premium pricing across all manufacturers

    high · Kaneda: 'They're now $13,000 for every single one. And they're about to raise the prices... At most, I would give them $10,000 for an LE.'

  • ?

    product_concern: Harry Potter experiencing mechanical troubleshooting (diverter alignment issues) in early production; early-access games warrant waiting 6-12 months for code maturity

    medium · Kaneda: 'I go into the Harry Potter thread and I'm seeing a lot more troubleshooting... I just never really understood why anyone wanted Potter right away'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Star Wars hype dramatically lower than expected; only 8 pages in Pinside hype thread; community enthusiasm declining due to repetitive Stern themes and premium pricing

    high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball's Star Wars, next, only eight pages in the hype thread... Nobody cares about another Star Wars... They've been going back to the same well over and over and over again'

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern deliberately constraining LE production (770 Star Wars vs. higher historical numbers) to restore FOMO and collectability after John Wick/Venom demand failures

    high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball is smart... You need to start lowering the LE number and that's what they're doing... they're working to get that back. Smart, right?'

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Stern leadership (Jody) selecting themes from inappropriate cultural touchstones (Slayer concerts) rather than mainstream IP appeal (Comic-Con, nostalgia properties)

    medium · Kaneda: 'I really do feel like Jody goes to like a Slayer concert... When Jody needs to go to like Comic-Con... More Ghostbusters, more Batman, more Die Hard, more Total Recall'