Episode 1107: "So What Predator Game Did People Order?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 51s·analyzed·Jun 23, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda warns against early adoption of incomplete new games, criticizes Pinball Brothers' Predator launch chaos, and predicts industry reckoning.

Summary

Kaneda discusses critical issues with recent Stern releases (King Kong, X-Men) plagued by mechanical and code problems, and extensively criticizes Pinball Brothers' mishandled Predator launch, including an unapproved Arnold clip that circulated during pre-orders and the lack of official gameplay videos. He argues that FOMO is dead due to unlimited production runs and high prices, making early adoption of incomplete games financially risky. He also expresses qualified enthusiasm for JJP's Dune theme integration while noting personal indifference to the IP, and criticizes American Pinball's inventory glut on Galactic Tank Force.

Key Claims

Stern is planning to reveal Jaws 50th Anniversary on Friday, July 4th
low confidence · Kaneda, opening segment: 'I'm hearing that might be the rumored date in which Stern is going to unveil and reveal this game.'
King Kong has widespread mechanical issues reported by owners
high confidence · Kaneda referencing owner thread: 'The mechanical issues with this game is really something that nobody wants to go in on right now... the majority of the conversation is how to fix the game, how to get the game working consistently.'
Pinball Brothers sent out the unapproved Arnold clip themselves, not a leak
high confidence · Kaneda: 'They created that asset and they sent it out to people... nobody broke into Pinball Brothers late at night and took this footage... It was them. This whole thing about it leaked. It didn't leak. You sent it out.'
Predator will not have Billy (the Predator creature) in the game due to licensor restrictions
high confidence · Pinball Brothers official statement quoted by Kaneda: 'The license holder is firm on that. No one's getting Billy.'
Arnold will appear in Predator but without close-ups of his face
high confidence · Pinball Brothers statement: 'Arnold is in the game, but we don't have close-ups on his face, at least for now... you'll see him from the side the back full body etc'
Pinball Brothers claims around 800 units production target but state it's not a hard limit
high confidence · Kaneda quoting Pinball Brothers: 'Our only limit is how many we can make. And we're thinking around 800, but it's not limited to 800.'
Predator is not shipping until August
high confidence · Kaneda: 'this game's not even on the line until August, people.'
American Pinball has unsold Galactic Tank Force inventory and Mukesh will not allow Cuphead production until existing inventory sells
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'American Pinball, is trying to fire sale these games. The reason why is this. Mukesh will not let them make Cuphead, which is ready to go, until they sell all the existing inventory.'

Notable Quotes

“You should not have revealed your game unless official gameplay clips that show customers what they can expect for the money... You're not ready to reveal your game and launch your game to the world.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Direct criticism of Pinball Brothers' launch strategy for Predator
“They created that asset and they sent it out to people... It was them. This whole thing about it leaked. It didn't leak. You sent it out.”
Kaneda @ ~10:30 — Accuses Pinball Brothers of deliberately distributing unapproved content rather than it being a genuine leak
“A hard no is better than a soft maybe and all of these soft maybes are the reason why people are confused about what they are getting”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Critiques Pinball Brothers' ambiguous messaging about game content
“FOMO is dead... They're not going to make a limited number of this game... Our only limit is how many we can make.”
Kaneda (paraphrasing Pinball Brothers) @ ~18:30 — Argues that unlimited production and lack of hard limits kill collector motivation
“I think a reckoning is coming in this hobby... we're going to start to see less and less people run at these new in box games.”
Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Prediction of major shift in buyer behavior due to quality and pricing concerns
“no game is $9,000 more fun than any other game in the history of pinball... all pinball is somewhat fun.”
Kaneda @ ~43:00 — Challenges the value proposition of $15k games versus significantly cheaper alternatives
“I like the way the movie is coming at you in a better way... Very well done... I just can't make myself personally and emotionally connect with what's happening in that movie.”
Kaneda (about Dune) @ ~46:00 — Acknowledges excellent theme integration but personal indifference to IP limits appeal
“If you love these Dune movies, this is the greatest pin for you. But I'm a chicken parm guy... I'm a back to the future guy.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Pinball BrotherscompanyStern PinballcompanyPredatorgame King Konggame X-Mengame Jaws 50th Anniversarygame

Signals

?
product_concern: King Kong experiencing widespread mechanical issues reported across owner threads; mechanical problems more significant concern than code issues
high · Kaneda: 'The mechanical issues with this game is really something that nobody wants to go in on right now... the majority of the conversation is how to fix the game, how to get the game working consistently.'
?
product_concern: Multiple Stern releases shipping with incomplete code; X-Men, King Kong both criticized for code quality; companies releasing games 'long before they're done'
high · Kaneda: 'they are okay releasing games where the code is not even close to being complete... Stern needs three cornerstone games a year... They're moving so quickly that they are okay releasing games where the code is not even close to being complete.'
?
rumor_hype: Jaws 50th Anniversary rumored to be unveiled July 4th by Stern; unconfirmed date
low · Kaneda: 'I'm hearing that might be the rumored date in which Stern is going to unveil and reveal this game... I don't know.'
?
leak_detection: Unapproved Arnold clip circulated during Predator pre-order week; Pinball Brothers confirms they created and distributed it, not a true leak
high · Kaneda + Pinball Brothers statement: They created the asset and sent it out. Kaneda: 'nobody broke into Pinball Brothers late at night and took this footage. They created that asset and they sent it out to people.'
?
licensing_signal: Predator game cannot include Billy (the Predator creature) due to licensor firm restriction; Arnold included but limited to no close-ups on face

Topics

Predator launch mismanagement and licensing restrictionsprimaryQuality control and incomplete code at releaseprimaryDeath of FOMO and unlimited production runsprimaryHigh pricing vs. game value and secondary market dynamicsprimaryMechanical reliability issues in recent Stern gamesprimaryLack of location-based playtestingprimaryIndustry inventory problems and fire salessecondaryTheme licensing and IP integration qualitysecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.78)— Kaneda expresses strong criticism of industry practices, manufacturer decision-making, and product quality. Frustrated tone about incomplete games, high prices, and marketing missteps. Only qualified positive sentiment on Dune's technical theme integration, though tempered by personal IP indifference. Pessimistic outlook predicting industry reckoning and customer backlash.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.065

It's got tissue that I wish you saw, so I can't miss the know-it-all. I'll close your eyes and I'll kiss you, cause with the birds I'll share. I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say, I'll say. Ah, happy Monday everybody. Welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. How's everybody doing? How's your summer going? You know how I feel, that this is a winter sport, so it's not worth arguing about pinball right now. You should be outdoors with your friends, with your family, having a good time out there in the sunshine. I don't know where you are, but where I am in Connecticut, it's been very, very rainy. And rainy days make you want to play pinball. So what's happening in this pinball world right now? How's everybody feeling as we head towards July? Are we going to get Jaws 50th anniversary on Friday, July 4th? I'm hearing that might be the rumored date in which Stern is going to unveil and reveal this game. I don't know. I mean, do we need more Jaws machines? Will it sell? I think it'll do okay, right? Because I think more people are thinking that Jaws is a better game than King Kong. Interesting that we might get two Elwynn games that Stern is trying to move new in box, going against each other. I could see them waiting a little bit on revealing Jaws 50th because they want to sell more King Kong machines. But as I go into the King Kong thread, it's a big issue. The mechanical issues with this game is really something that nobody wants to go in on right now. If I were you, I would maybe be a little bit hesitant, maybe a lot of bit hesitant to go in on a game where the majority of the thread, and this is the King Kong hype and owners threads, the majority of the conversation is how to fix the game, how to get the game working consistently. That is not good. I am not in the evil dead thread seeing people trying to fix their games every single week. I'm seeing people try to fix their X-Men's. People are hoping the X-Men code gets better, but that's also not going to change the stuff mechanically with the game. So look, I hope X-Men, you know how I feel. I hope X-Men has a turnaround and becomes the great game it might be able to become. but again at these prices right I feel like everyone's just feeling this you want to buy a game and you want it to work right out of the box is that such a high demand to have for something that costs this much money and it makes me wonder like what was it like back in the day you guys ever think about this what was it like back in the day when you bought and I was never there when you bought a new in box Lord of the Rings in 2004, did the game work right out of the box? Did the game have all the code it needed to right out of the box? What were those older games like? And I would love it if you were around back then and an operator and unbox some of those earlier Stern machines. I tend to believe that these games were more code complete back then. There wasn't as much competition back then, there wasn't as much of a rush to get so many games out a year. So I think right now, where we're at, it's like Stern needs three cornerstone games a year, and they're going to vault something, and they're going to anniversary something. And so they need to keep that big factory going. They're moving so quickly that they are okay releasing games where the code is not even close to being complete. And also mechanically, it's clear that mechanically, this stuff is not being tested enough before it's being sold to you. And the fact that the stuff that's being sold to you is the most expensive version goes out first now is really killing any FOMO that was left around owning an LE version of these games. And that's a big issue. I think if you were to pull people right now, remember when I used to say like whoever spends the most amount of money should get on the plane first. But now I'm feeling like LE owners don't want to be first. Why do you want to be first through the door now and get a game that's incomplete or get a game that's going to have so many mechanical issues? Because think about it. If your X-Men LE wasn't the first on the line and they made the pros and the premiums first and that's where people caught the issues, both with the code and the hardware, you might not go in on your game. And Stern machines are not non-refundable deposits. So I don't know, I'm just feeling this vibe where people are kind of over rushing in, spending the most and being a guinea pig that ultimately gonna be somewhat frustrated and unsatisfied with the purchase So talking about rushing in the Pinball Brothers have released an official statement about what's been going on around this Predator launch. And you know how I feel. This thing is kind of like a disaster. It's kind of a disaster that on the week they took non-refundable orders on their game. They had a clip circulating with Arnold and a clip that was never approved by the company. And it took them a while to respond. I mean, this is like days later. You got to remember this. They were taking orders on a game in which a lot of people were sharing something as a sales asset. And everyone was pointing at it, being like, look at this. he's really going to be in the game in a decent fashion and so the game's going to be much better than we thought and then you realize no no he's not and I still have a lot of questions about how that clip even happened they knew they never had permission to make that and yet it was made and not only that somehow they sent this clip out to people it was coming from them remember nobody broke into Pinball Brothers late at night and took this footage. They created that asset and they sent it out to people. Okay. It was them. This whole thing about it leaked. It didn't leak. You sent it out. Nobody robbed it from you. So here's their official statement. A million DMs about Predator and we love to see it. Thanks for the massive interest in the game. The leaked internal clip question mark yeah it raised more questions than answers the opposite of what our official gameplay videos are meant to do we're working on several gameplay clips that show off the assets features and feel of the game and actually answer your questions but first we must address the leak and the confusion it caused okay i just want to stop right there they are still working on official gameplay clips. They don't have one ready yet. Were they ready to take your money last week? Absolutely. Were they ready to take non-refundable deposits on their game? Yep. And they still don't have official gameplay clips. And I'm just going to say this. I don't know why I always have to say this stuff. You should not have revealed your game unless official gameplay clips that show customers what they can expect for the money. Remember, this is a $15,500 game if you're all in on it. If you don't have that ready, then you're not ready to reveal your game and launch your game to the world. You're not ready to take people's non-refundable deposits, and yet they did. They also knew that that Arnold clip was out there in the world. It's not like it leak that day. They knew people had it. They actually probably know who they sent it to. Okay, so let's go on to see what they say next. They say, we want to address the leak and the confusion it caused. The next sentence is this. Here's what you would have learned from our official gameplay. We have all the team member clips, assets, and voices except Billy. The license holder is firm on that. No one's getting Billy. You either leave Predator 87 alone or work around it. And we chose to work around it. That said, we can use all of Billy's original quotes. Okay. Now, does that mean a voice actor is doing Billy's quotes or Billy is speaking them? Just no images of Billy. Not clear. Okay, this is meant to clear up any confusion. Does this clear it up? They then go on to say, Arnold is in the game, but we don't have close-ups on his face, at least for now. All right, so right there, you're basically telling people we don't have his face, not yet all of these maybes. Look, pinball brothers, the most confusing thing you can tell someone who's just looking for an answer is maybe, right? We're not sure yet if we're going to have all of him or more of him or not. Yes, you are. Yes, you are. You know, you don't have permission. just give us a hard no a hard no is better than a soft maybe and all of these soft maybes are the reason why people are confused about what they are getting they then go on to say you'll see him from the side the back full body etc what does that mean how can John Youssi Arnold full body but not see his face I think what they're going to do is they're going to take those quick cuts where John Youssi just the arms holding the guns and everybody from behind walking through the jungle, but you're never going to see Arnold's face. And then they go on to say, and it works. You play as Dutch, assembling your team, gearing up, taking on missions and going up against the predator. We have all of Arnold quotes performed by a voice actor Get to the choppa It sounds just right There are no other restrictions not on clips sounds blood gore or guns The game packed with original movie moments and call from the best goddamn rescue team in cinema history Thanks for your pinball passion and see you in the jungle. Alright, so look, I understand what these guys are doing. There's a damage control going on here. And they're trying to spin this a little bit. And basically what we know is that we're going to get some Arnold. We don't really know how much. It would help us if they showed us a clip or a mode in the game in which we got a sense of how this is all going to be incorporated. Have you seen that? No. When are we going to see a stream of this game? Nobody knows. But yet they will take your money today. And this is just another example, ladies and gentlemen, where another company is releasing a game too soon, too early. They don't have enough to show us. And I think FOMO is dead. They're not going to make a limited number of this game. They've also been very ambiguous on that. Our only limit is how many we can make. And we're thinking around 800, but it's not limited to 800. You are not going to get game number 17 out of 800. So by doing that, they created confusion on how many they're going to make. By allowing that Arnold leak to get out there, they created confusion on what's in the game. By not putting out their own gameplay video, they have also created more confusion about what's actually in the game. So three confusing things in a row, and all three of those things could have been handled better by the Pinball Brothers. And yet it was not. And yet this is what you get. And so you wonder why he can hit his like scratch in his head again. What are these companies really thinking? These aren't brand new companies to pinball. These people have been around for so long. And it's weird to me, too, that they've forgotten how you still need FOMO if you're a boutique company. I think they forgot that, making it wishy-washy around if the game's limited or not. They forgot seemingly what a lawyer would say to them. You better not even put them into the game code wise if you know you don't have permission. They seemingly forgot that. And then they even seemingly forgot how to make their own gameplay video off of the licensor approved content. They seemingly didn't do that for us. And so because of all the things they forgot to do, maybe you shouldn't buy one right now. Maybe you should wait to see how this game pans out. And remember, this game's not even on the line until August, people. So anyone who ordered one already, I really do think you might need to have your head examined because you just haven't seen enough. Everybody look. I could look at this thread. I could look at the Harry Potter thread. You know, people are enjoying Potter, but there's still a lot of question marks to see how the Potter code will end up becoming. I'm still reading people saying there's a lot of stacking going on. And even in the new code, like you just feel like there's so much happening at once. I really hope Jersey Jack simplifies that. The ball's in their court and they have plenty of time to do it because they're going to be making this game for a really long time. But I think the thing that I'm seeing sitting over all of this is that all of these games have more work to be done and buying them early on now just feels like pointless. Like there absolutely feels like no reason why you should be going in on any games early. All of the FOMO is dead now that these games are unlimited or there's way too many of them out there for it to feel even like there is any FOMO. And so then you add it all up together. Companies releasing products before they're done, long before they're done. Mechanical issues in games that keep popping up and you're gonna be the guinea pig because none of these companies playtest. They don't playtest these games on location. They simply playtest them internally. Is that enough? Apparently not. Because if Stern was doing internal playtesting on these games, how did they not fix and find the issues with X-Men, the issues with King Kong, all right? So I'm just going off of what we're experiencing in the game itself. And if you put games on location and you get real feedback, maybe you hear from people, Hey, that scoop shot's a little too hard to hit for Harry Potter. If you make that the way you start a mode in the game, it's not going to be that much fun for most players. Maybe think about a different way or a way to select the shot that starts the mode in the game. They didn't do that, right? So they're learning right now, but the game's already out there. And that's what's happening throughout pinball right now. And I think a lot of people are just tired of going in early and getting burned. and when you get burned and you go in early, now the heat you're gonna feel is much worse than it ever was before. And again, because there's so many options and there's so many games out there and there's so many great games you can go buy used that you don't have to worry about any of that. There's so many games where you don't have to worry about the mechanics, you don't have to worry about the code, you just know it's a great game. You might have to do stuff here and there to keep the game going. For the most part, a lot of these games, if you go into the threads those threads are not inundated with owners trying to fix new inbox problems And that the crazy part about the last couple years of pinball You combine for the most part more underwhelming themes with a lot of quality control issues and incomplete code. And then the highest prices pinball has ever been. And then you add up all the losses people have had to endure if they bought early and right away. And then the answer is so simple. If you just wait and see, you can go get all these games and you can avoid the headaches. You can avoid the games that are just going to be headaches that you're going to want to move on from quickly. I think a reckoning is coming. I do. I think a reckoning is coming in this hobby. And I think we're going to see a reckoning within the next year. And by reckoning, I just think we're going to start to see less and less people run at these new in box games. And the thing I'm really worried about is like all these thousands of unsold games that Stern has just with no homes. Like what happens when those games have to go somewhere? What's going to happen, right? You're going to start to get really good deals on games and it's going to be hard when you spend $6,000 on a game and it's great to justify spending $15,000 on a game because no game, I mean, there's no game, whether you're talking Galactic Tank Force and Godzilla, no game is $9,000 more fun than any other game in the history of pinball. It's just not because all pinball is somewhat fun. And if you're in a good mood and you walk up to a Galactic Tank Force, you're still going to have some fun playing pinball. I mean that. Speaking of Galactic Tank Force, have you seen American Pinball, is trying to fire sale these games. The reason why is this. Mukesh will not let them make Cuphead, which is ready to go, until they sell all the existing inventory. Problem is, nobody wants those games. At what price would you want a signature edition of Galactic Tank Force? Do you even want one for eight grand or seven grand? I think the price for these games is more like $5,000. I do. It's just like no one wants it. Nobody really wants it. All right. So speaking of wanting games, I was watching the Carl stream on Dune Pinball this week. I believe it was Friday night at eight o'clock. I think it was Friday. It was good to see more of the game. It was really great to hear Carl explain how the game works, the way they are integrating the theme in this game. I like it more than Harry Potter's theme integration. I like the way the movie is coming at you in a better way. I like the way the movie clips go full screen. I like the way you hear from the actors synced up. I love the way those two screens can connect to each other through certain modes in the game. I love the way the game goes from like nighttime to daytime. And you really do feel the transformation of that world under glass. Very well done. The music, the orchestration of this game, it's super, super cool. Like I love everything about the theme integration in this Dune Pinball Machine. The only thing I can't do, and I just can't create this inside my bones, it's coming at me so nicely. I just can't make myself personally and emotionally connect with what's happening in that movie. And that's the big issue, is even though I love everything I'm seeing, it's like you made the most delicious eggplant imaginable. And for people that love eggplant, they're gonna love this so much. If you love these Dune movies, this is the greatest pin for you. But I'm a chicken parm guy. I'm a back to the future guy. I'm a Star Wars guy. I'm a big trouble in little China guy. I'm a fifth element guy. I'm a diehard guy. I'm a karate kid guy. I'm a Matrix guy. I'm a Top Gun guy. You make those games? You make those games with this good of a theme integration and I'm buying one on day one? I just can't make myself like something theme-wise that I'm just not into. I mean it. It's also why I don't even own an Evil Dead. As cool as that game is, I know that Beetlejuice is coming. So I'm just gonna wait because I'd much rather have the best of both worlds. I don't want just a great pinball experience. I want a great pinball experience based on a theme I love. And you know how I feel. I have a Guns and Roses. I'm more willing to have a great theme I love that's an okay pinball experience versus a great pinball experience based on a theme I don't like. It's why I would rather have GNR over Iron Maiden. It's just how I am. And I'm allowed to have that opinion, everybody. Happy Monday. Kaneda out. Thank you.