#35 - Led Zeppelin Eve

A Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·12m 6s·analyzed·Dec 15, 2020

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

Host anticipates Led Zeppelin pinball launch, predicts strong sales and Steve Ritchie three-flipper design.

Summary

The host of A Pinball Podcast discusses the imminent Led Zeppelin pinball announcement on the eve of its reveal (December 14, 2020). He covers pre-order demand, his own purchasing strategy favoring Pro over LE due to LE reliability issues, speculation about Steve Ritchie as designer, predictions for three-flipper layout, and broader industry trends around rock-themed games and demographic shifts in pinball. He compares expectations to Guns N' Roses and similar music pins, and positions Led Zeppelin as a tournament-viable, Metallica-tier game.

Key Claims

Led Zeppelin LEs are selling out quickly; the speaker could not secure one but knows friends who 'just got in on time'
high confidence · Early pre-order signal reported directly by host from peer network conversations
The speaker's Avengers LE (cost ~$9,000) has experienced three separate mechanical failures within 150 games: busted wire form, bent disc, and subway malfunction
high confidence · Personal testimony about LE reliability issues; specific failure catalog
Steve Ritchie is the speculated designer of Led Zeppelin
medium confidence · Host says 'speculated designer is Steve Ritchie' and assumes this; not officially confirmed at time of recording
Led Zeppelin will have three flippers, not a multi-level playfield like AC/DC
low confidence · Host prediction based on design patterns; explicitly stated as speculation ('I don't know anything...that's just my prediction')
Steve Ritchie's last design release was Black Knight in March 2019 (several months before it came out), meaning ~21 months of development time before Led Zeppelin (as of December 2020)
high confidence · Host timeline assertion: 'March of 2019...December 2020'
Music-themed pinball games (ACDC, KISS, Metallica, Aerosmith, Iron Maiden) have strong crossover appeal between casual and tournament play
medium confidence · Host generalization based on portfolio review, not manufacturer-sourced data
Stern will continue releasing rock-themed games for 'at least a few more years until the well is dry'
medium confidence · Industry prediction based on remaining band catalog; host acknowledges 'rolling demographic' and future shift to modern themes

Notable Quotes

“I've decided for now I'm definitely sitting out the LE portion of this, and there's a lot of reasons for that. One, pocketbook. Two, the theme resonates with me some, but not enough to get an LE.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ early in episode — Establishes host's purchasing strategy and reveals tension between theme appeal and LE cost/reliability concerns
“The ELs that I do have, my God, the issues that comes with it, it is like, these things are not meant to be played. It is so bizarre. They just, they don't last.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ mid-episode — Strong critique of LE manufacturing quality; supports decision to buy Pro instead
“I've learned my lesson. So I'm no longer going to spend $9,000 on a pinball machine. I'm instead going to spend deep $500 to $6,000.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ after LE failures discussion — Humorous but pointed commentary on LE pricing and value proposition collapse due to reliability
“There still is a lot of people in the industry that are questioning dad rock, and they're just quite frankly getting tired of the dad rock.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ mid-episode — Identifies emerging community sentiment fatigue with classic rock IP; notes generational tension
“I think the hype will grow, will go really, really strong for it. And I think after a couple of months, you know, I think you'll still be able to find pens here and there.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ prediction segment — Market forecast: strong launch with tapering demand; Pro availability forecast vs LE scarcity
“Pinball, it's just like when you're dealing with two different companies, it's still the same thing. It's still the same industry, but it's almost like it's two different platforms.”
A Pinball Podcast host @ Stern vs boutique comparison — Philosophical stance on design divergence between Stern and boutique manufacturers (e.g., JJP/Guns N' Roses)
“I really feel like that this is a pin that will be very great for tournaments. I feel like that this pin has potential to be solid for years to come because the fact is that most of your music pins turn out like that.”

Entities

Steve Ritchieperson Tim Sextonperson Led Zeppelingame Guns N' Rosesgame Star Warsgame Black Knightgame

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Host expects Led Zeppelin to reach Metallica/Iron Maiden tier (high-quality tournament + casual appeal) rather than KISS tier, reflecting confidence in design team and extended development time
medium · Host: 'I really do expect Led Zeppelin to lean more towards being as great as a Metallica or an Iron Maiden...this design has had time to bake'
?
competitive_signal: Host predicts Led Zeppelin will sell well initially then taper; LEs fully spoken for but Pros will remain available after hype cools
medium · Host prediction: 'it's going to sell great out of the gate...after a couple of months, you'll still be able to find pens here and there. Now, the LEs, obviously, they're most likely going to be all spoken for.'
?
design_philosophy: Host articulates Stern's incremental innovation strategy within known design patterns vs boutique manufacturers' experimental approaches (e.g., Guns N' Roses as 'concert in a box')
medium · Host: 'Stern is still going to stay in their wheelhouse...push the boundaries within what you know works and just make that incrementally better pen by pen year over year'
$
market_signal: Led Zeppelin LEs selling out on pre-order; Pro availability not constrained; suggests strong LE FOMO and scarcity premium intact for music IP
high · Host reports 'early indications...Led Zeppelin is...doing really well on pre-orders' and friends 'trying to find LEs...can't find any'
?
community_signal: Host speculates Steve Ritchie had ~21 months of design time between Black Knight (March 2019) and Led Zeppelin (December 2020), suggesting adequate development cycle

Topics

Led Zeppelin pinball pre-order demand and LE scarcityprimaryLE reliability and manufacturing quality issuesprimarySteve Ritchie as designer and his design philosophyprimaryRock/music-themed pinball game market saturation and generational appealsecondaryThree-flipper vs multi-level playfield design predictionsecondaryStern vs boutique manufacturer design philosophy (incremental vs experimental)secondaryTournament viability and casual play crossover in music pinsmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.62)— Host is excited about Led Zeppelin announcement and Steve Ritchie's involvement, but tempered by frustration with LE reliability, market saturation with rock themes, and philosophical concerns about aging demographics. Tone is enthusiastic about the game itself but critical of the LE tier and industry direction.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.036

All right, welcome back, guys, to another episode of A Pinball Podcast. And today we are going to talk about Led Zeppelin. Yes, it is the day before the big announcement is supposed to break out. It is Monday, December 14th. And, yeah, it feels like Christmas Eve, like 10 days before Christmas Eve. Yeah, that makes total sense, at least from a pinball standpoint. Anyhow, really excited just because this, I mean, anytime that there's new pinball that gets announced, It's exciting. Anytime the new pinball gets announced and you get to see it and you get to order it, even more exciting. Now, early indications are all pointing at the fact that Led Zeppelin is, in fact, doing really well on pre-orders. It seems to be that, you know, LEs, I've talked to a couple of friends that are trying to find LEs. They can't find any. I'm talking to a few other friends that are in on LEs and they say that they just got in on time. Yours truly, I'm skipping out on an LE on this one, but I am getting a pro. I am doing that early on just because I want to see what it's all about. I want to get a feel for it because I honestly think, just like all Steve Ritchie games, they usually show up on the tournament circuit, and thus, you know, I want to get a feel for it early on, especially here at home. But yeah, I've decided for now I'm definitely sitting out the LE portion of this, and there's a lot of reasons for that. One, pocketbook. too. You know, the theme resonates with me some, but not enough to get an Ellie. And then to be flat out honest, the Ellie's that I do have, my God, the issues that comes with it, it's, it is like, these things are not meant to be played. It is so bizarre. They, they just, they don't last. I don't know. I don't even play rough and they don't last. I just, you know, like for instance, my Avengers right now, I've had three separate issues pop up within the first 150 games, which is a busted wire form that just snapped. Finally got a new one in and fixed that. My disc actually got bent, and no, it's not the adjustment that's needed underneath. Like, the actual physical part of it that gets hit by the pinball is actually bent, and I cannot get it back. I just hit it so many times, I guess, in the same spot. It eventually is setting up a little bit. And then, of course, yesterday, my subway decides to plunk and fall apart into the cabinet, but luckily, there's an easy fix for that because it's just, it looks like a spot weld, but I think you could just put a screw and a nut and all that and get that fixed. But, yeah, so that's kind of my story after spending $9,000 on a pinball machine. But I've learned my lesson. So I'm no longer going to spend $9,000 on a pinball machine. I'm instead going to spend a deep $500 to $6,000. Yeah, that makes a whole lot of sense, doesn't it? Anyhow, I'm sure the game will be great. You know, there is some reasons why this theme kind of resonates with me a little bit. You know, I go back and forth with Old Rock and stuff like that. I mean, I listen to some of it, not all of it, but some of it when I get in the right mood, I'll listen to like a full playlist of it. I grew up on it, for sure. My dad listened to it all the time, and Led Zeppelin happened to be one of those bands he listened to so I actually fairly familiar with their catalog a lot more than what other older rock bands would be Now it not necessarily songs that I just sit here and just listen to on my own time but I do recognize the songs, and I do think that some of them will translate well to pinball in general. However, there is some things that are still going on, and I alluded to this actually in a video, or actually I didn't just allude to it, we talked about it a little bit in a video earlier, that there still is a lot of people in the industry that are questioning dad rock, and they're just quite frankly getting tired of the dad rock. And I use that in quotation marks, the older rock themes. But here's the reality of it, and this goes both ways. I can see it from both sides, and I'm going to be a total fence sitter on this one. So I'm just giving you a heads up right now. I get it from both sides. One, we're going to keep seeing these types of rock themes come out for a long period of time, at least for a few more years until the well is dry. I mean, there's still several other bands to go. But I understand, too, is that the age demographic is always a rolling demographic, and especially with pinball, now that home sales are skyrocketing, and we hope that there's still more people, especially once, you know, arcades and everything opens back up and events and shows, that younger people will start getting more and more involved in pinball. So that being said, there's always people coming in and out of different hobbies, And I'm really wondering when the demographic from 25 to 30, if that demographic will start shifting upwards into the 30, 35, if they'll stick around long enough and eventually become buyers of pinball. And that day will happen eventually. It will. I think that this is going to be a natural progression in terms of Stern or any other pinball company to finally release what I guess we could call a modern pinball theme. Now, modern being something that might be 1990 on. You know, I mean, there's still a couple other bands that are left over from the 80s, just like we talked about the other day. Guns N' Roses is still from the mid-80s, and that's about as, I guess, as young as you can get at this point. And, you know, I don't know if grunge rock from the early 90s, if that would really go well. I mean, there are some themes that might make sense a little bit, but we'll talk about that on another podcast. So I think I see it from both sides, and I understand. But the fact is, is that these pens sell well. These types of themes sell well. Even if they don't resonate with everybody, they sell. And I can see it happening from a mile away. Led Zeppelin is definitely going to sell really well. Now, my prediction for it is it's going to sell great out of the gate, and I think that it will taper off over due time. I think the hype will grow, will go really, really strong for it. And I think after a couple of months, you know, I think you'll still be able to find pens here and there. Now, the LEs, obviously, they're most likely going to be all spoken for. You know, and as they should be, and they usually are in this instance when you're dealing with a licensed theme that happens to be a music pen, especially from a band that is highly desirable. But we do know or at least I say we do know we do know the speculated designer is Steve Ritchie Now assuming it is him that makes me pretty excited just because I dig a lot of his designs And I'm not just talking just from a modern standpoint. A lot of his stuff from the mid-'80s I enjoyed as well, such as High Speed and F-14. And even going as far back as 1979 with Flash, I actually like that design as well. And he designed a couple of other moderns that, if you guys aren't aware of, Star Trek and Spider-Man and, I believe, Game of Thrones, all Steve Ritchie designs. And so that being said, I really feel like when we're looking at the pins that he has designed recently, such as Black Knight, which I felt was a lot of fun, and Star Wars, which I used to own one. I felt like it was fun. But I do agree that the design could have been a little bit better. But that being said, I fully expect, like, I have the prediction that this pin will have three flippers. I don't think we're going to deal with an upper play field or a lower play field like ACDC or anything like that. I think this pin is prime to have three flippers. Now, I don't know anything. I know as much as you guys do as of this recording. No pictures, no nothing. That's just my prediction just because I feel like it's time for something like that from Steve Ritchie. And plus, too, that allows him to play around with the overall design a little bit more, and he can find certain shots that are a lot of fun, that are just, I mean, they're fun to hit, such as the one on Star Trek, that warp ramp is a lot of fun, especially based on the way it's designed. And sometimes you can even hit that left ramp right there with the upper flipper if something's dialed in right. I mean, I'm not consistent with it, but I've done it a few times before. So that part of it, thinking that that's possible and I hope I'm right, that gets me a little bit excited. But even if that doesn't happen, you know, kind of cool. I might cool off on it a little bit, but I really do hope it's three flippers. I do think, I'm predicting it will be a three flipper game. Now, inevitably, what's going to happen is people are going to start comparing this to Guns N' Roses right off the bat. It's already happening. And, you know, I mean, for fair or worse or whatever you want to call it, I, you know, I don't think necessarily that these games need to be compared too much. I mean, you're obviously going to compare anything that comes out. The thing is, and I've said this before, pinball, it's just like when you're dealing with two different companies, it's still the same thing. It's still the same industry, but it's almost like it's two different platforms. And Guns N' Roses, you know, I feel like the way that they design that, it's an entirely different spectacle and different game that I don't think any other designer or any other, not designer, but any other company is going to approach. because I don't think that that's going to be the direction they're going to go. I think Stern is still going to stay in their wheelhouse with games that they know sell under their banner and with designs and with lights and with sound that they know works because you might as well just push the boundaries within what you know works and just make that incrementally better pen by pen year over year Whereas when you look at Guns N Roses it something completely different But the thing about Guns N' Roses also is that they had a lot of games in the past to really draw from because they could look at every single rock-based theme pen and decide, okay, this is the way that they were. We want to go this direction and basically make a concert in a box, which is a pretty awesome direction to go in, especially if you're the casual player. Now, obviously for me, I've talked about this a lot. It wasn't really my cup of tea, but it was still fun to play. In spurts for me, it was still fun to play. And so I wonder how Led Zeppelin would compare in that instance. And I don't think it's going to compare much rules-wise. I don't see if Tim Sexton is on this, which he comes from a tournament background, and he did great on Black Knight with the rules on there. I don't see him putting in any rules that really forces the action as such that every single time you're in a multiball that you always have to flip. You know, I don't see that happening. But in general, I really feel like that this is a pin that will be very great for tournaments. I feel like that this pin has potential to be solid for years to come because the fact is that most of your music pins turn out like that. Most of them are a lot of fun to play just casual, and a lot of them end up being fun to play in tournaments. They really have that type of crossover, and I don't really expect Stern to go outside of that. You know, when you look at ACDC, you look at KISS, even though KISS took a little bit longer to get the code going. When you look at Metallica, when you look at Aerosmith, you know, in a couple of those games, they may not be world beaters or anything like that. I know KISS isn't considered in the same realm as something like Metallica, but games are still enjoyable to play. And so I expect, I really do expect Led Zeppelin to lean more towards being as great as a Metallica or an Iron Maiden. And the reason for that is, is because this design has had time to bake. I think the last time that Steve Ritchie came out with a pen was, what, March of 2019? So here we are, December 2020. So I feel like he's had a long time in between when he got done with Black Knight, which obviously was a few months before or several months before it actually came out, compared to where we're at now with him getting all of his designs out and just figuring out what's going to shoot the best for Led Zeppelin. So I'm really excited about that. You guys should be too. We'll sit here and wait together, and we'll figure out what we're going to see. Eventually, I'm going to keep speculating until I actually get to see it. Hopefully, something comes out tomorrow. I'm fully expecting a trailer to come out tomorrow, and then, of course, we'll do our normal reaction. And we'll go from there. But other than that, though, guys, this is just a short episode. I just want to put out my thoughts on it a little bit. Get your guys' thoughts on it as well. What do you guys think? The day before, are you excited? Are you expecting much? Is expectations low? Are you into Guns N' Roses? Are you just kind of like, eh, about this? Let me know, guys. Other than that, you guys take care, and I'll talk to you guys later.