Episode 1040: "Kaneda's Shocking First Impressions of D&D"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·25m 31s·analyzed·Jan 4, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Kaneda loves D&D's mechanics but warns theme mismatch will tank LE sales and Stern's FOMO model.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a detailed first-impression analysis of Stern's Dungeons & Dragons pinball machine, praising its world-building, innovative dragon toy mechanism, and design cohesion while criticizing the LE artwork, pricing strategy, and questioning whether the D&D theme has sufficient mainstream appeal. He argues the game is mechanically excellent but positioned in a theme that won't generate the FOMO-driven sales Stern's business model depends on, predicting significant secondary-market depreciation.

Key Claims

The D&D dragon toy is one of Stern's most impressive and dynamic interactive toys ever created, surpassing mechanisms in Godzilla, Jurassic Park, and Jaws in terms of interactivity and visual impact.
high confidence · Kaneda, opening gameplay analysis of major toy mechanisms
The game features three major interactive toys: the dragon, the gelatinous cube (ball-freezing magnet), and the dungeon entrance pop-up—meeting George Gomez's design principle of needing three major toys.
high confidence · Kaneda, describing playfield toy distribution
D&D was designed from the ground up as a D&D game, not re-skinned from another design concept, unlike Mandalorian which felt like a generic Stern design retrofitted with Star Wars theme.
high confidence · Kaneda, comparing design philosophy to Mandalorian
Every Sunday the dungeon world randomizes, changing pathways and encounters, creating hundreds or thousands of gameplay variations from a fixed set of ~30 possible dungeon encounters.
medium confidence · Kaneda, interpreting Stern's explanation of weekly dungeon reset mechanic
D&D's LE variant has inferior artwork compared to the Premium due to red armor clashing with the green/blue artwork and flames interrupting the art package, and black/red T-molding doesn't match the cabinet armor colors correctly.
high confidence · Kaneda, critical analysis of LE vs. Premium aesthetic design
Spooky Pinball has sold approximately 700 Evil Dead units in roughly one month, compared to 750 Rick and Mortys sold in a single day, indicating weaker demand due to theme mismatch with the pinball buying demographic.
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing Spooky's sales newsletter and comparing to historical sales data
D&D LE machines will depreciate to Premium pricing (~$10,000) within 6 months, and Premiums will drop ~$2,000, following a pattern established over the last 2-3 years with non-hit Stern games.
medium confidence · Kaneda, market prediction based on recent secondary-market depreciation trends

Notable Quotes

“I think there is an interesting dichotomy happening across all of pinball. We now have two games, Dungeons and Dragons and Evil Dead, that are loading up the pinball machine with incredible worlds under glass with some of the best theme integration we've seen in all of pinball. And they are also two titles that the theme alone is the reason why most people don't really want them.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00 — Core thesis: mechanically exceptional games wrapped in themes that lack mainstream appeal within the pinball demographic
“Stern Pinball has put into this game what I think is one of its most impressive and incredible mechanisms they've ever put in a pinball machine and hard stop right there... anybody who walks up to this machine, regardless if they know anything about D&D, regardless if they know anything about pinball, they're going to have a ton of fun shooting at that big dragon.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00 — Highest praise for the dragon toy's universal appeal and mechanical innovation
“This does not feel like Mandalorian. When Mandalorian came out it felt like Brian Eddy was designing something else and they re-skinned it as Mandalorian... when I look at this game what excites me it's clearly designed as Dungeons and Dragons from the ground up you could not make this any other game.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00 — Distinguishes D&D as a thematic/mechanical integration success vs. a prior failed re-skin approach
“Remember, Stern's entire business model is built around the LE frenzy. If the LE frenzy isn't there, their entire model of how they sell games, it starts to collapse like a house of cards... their customers are the distributors and they need distributors to buy every single LE.”
Kaneda @ ~28:00 — Explains structural vulnerability in Stern's distribution and FOMO-dependent revenue model
“If you wait and you really want this, you're gonna be able to get an LE for the price of a premium and you're going to be able to get a premium for like $2,000 less than it is today... It's so easy now to sort of gauge that. This game is not going to be that [a hit].”
Kaneda @ ~33:00 — Market prediction based on depreciation trend data; advice to consumers on waiting strategy

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyDungeons & Dragons (pinball)gameKanedaperson Brian Eddyperson Dwight Sullivanperson George Gomezperson Keith Elwinperson

Signals

?
design_innovation: D&D dragon toy represents a major mechanical advancement—fully interactive, voice-acted, ball-bashing capable, and capable of firing pinballs; positioned as competitive escalation vs. Jersey Jack's Smaug and raising stakes for future manufacturers.
high · Kaneda: 'one of the greatest stern efforts in terms of putting a world under glass into a pinball machine... one of its most impressive and incredible mechanisms they've ever put in a pinball machine'
?
product_concern: LE artwork integration fails due to red armor clashing with green/blue art palette; flames interrupt artwork; mismatched T-molding colors (red LE with black back box vs. black premium with red back box); LE considered visually inferior to Premium tier.
high · Kaneda: 'the way the flames of the armor are interrupting the artwork itself it's distracting it doesn't look good... artist...didn't realize that you know they're going to be covering up some of that dynamic artwork with the armor'
$
market_signal: D&D theme lacks mainstream pinball buying demographic appeal despite mechanical excellence. Comparison: Spooky Evil Dead sold ~700 units in 1 month vs. 750 Rick & Mortys in 1 day; indicates theme-driven demand disparity.
high · Kaneda: 'the theme alone is the reason why most people don't really want them... D&D...doesn't have that much demand by the pinball buying demographic'
?
business_signal: Stern's distributor model depends on LE sell-out frenzies to drive bundle purchases (Pro/Premium/LE packages). Weak LE demand (D&D predicted not to sell out) destabilizes the entire pricing and distribution chain, forcing distributors to hold inventory and become nervous about secondary-market depreciation.
high · Kaneda: 'Stern's entire business model is built around the LE frenzy. If the LE frenzy isn't there, their entire model...starts to collapse like a house of cards'

Topics

D&D Pinball Mechanical Design & InnovationprimaryTheme Marketability & Mainstream Appeal MismatchprimaryLE Variant Design Criticism & AestheticsprimaryStern's Business Model & FOMO-Dependent DistributionprimarySecondary Market Depreciation Trends & Pricing StrategyprimaryCompetitive Positioning vs. Jersey Jack & SpookysecondaryGame Code Complexity & Rule Set Design PhilosophysecondaryConsumer Purchasing Strategy & FOMO Psychologysecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.62)— Kaneda expresses strong admiration for D&D's mechanical design, world-building, and creative integration (positive sentiment ~65% of content) but tempers enthusiasm with harsh criticism of LE aesthetics, pricing sustainability, and theme marketability. Market pessimism and consumer protection messaging dominate latter half. Tone is enthusiastic about craft but cautionary about purchasing decisions and business model viability.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.077

Dancing through the fire, cause I am the champion, and you're gonna hear me roar. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. Stern Pinball releases Dungeons and Dragons, the much anticipated new game from Stern Pinball, ushering in 2025 with a new pinball experience. I want to give you my thoughts on this game. After thinking about it all night, we all went to bed. We all read the commentary. We all saw the video. We all heard Dwight explain the game, Brian Eddy, George Gomez. We've looked at the pictures of this game. And you know, I've got a lot of feelings on this game. And most of them are very, very positive. And I think two things are happening with this title. I think there is an interesting dichotomy happening across all of pinball. We now have two games, Dungeons and Dragons and Evil Dead, that are loading up the pinball machine with incredible worlds under glass with some of the best theme integration we've seen in all of pinball. And they are also two titles that the theme alone is the reason why most people don't really want them. Now, here's the thing. I think all of us as grown pinball enthusiasts can do two things at once. We can be very, very impressed with a pinball machine and still not want to buy it. And that doesn't mean we're indicting the machine. And I think that's what's been going on because I think pinball now is becoming very, very personal. The reasons why you would buy a game have to speak to you on a personal level. But let's talk about the game itself. I look at this game and I've been thinking about this game and I'm looking at it right now. And I think this is one of the greatest stern efforts in terms of putting a world under glass into a pinball machine. What do you want in pinball, people? Right. You want a major toy. My gosh, this has a major dynamic interactive toy. It does so much cool stuff. It is voiced by an amazing voice actor, you know, Raph the Relentless, voiced by Michael Dorn. I mean, this dragon is awesome. You know, it reminded me of Smaug a little bit from Jersey Jack Pinball, but it does much more than Smaug does. I like the way Smaug talks to you, but do you bash Smaug? No. Does he fire pinballs at you? No. So Stern Pinball has put into this game what I think is one of its most impressive and incredible mechanisms they've ever put in a pinball machine and hard stop right there. The moment a company puts a mechanical, interactive toy that is humongous and amazing, and anybody who walks up to this machine, regardless if they know anything about D&D, regardless if they know anything about pinball, they're going to have a ton of fun shooting at that big dragon. And that's what all of pinball needs. This thing is cooler than anything in Godzilla. it's cooler than anything in Jurassic Park it is absolutely awesome I love the way it has like the caves sculpted around it it's not flat plastic so I think just right away looking at what Stern has put into this game how excited are you now to see what they're going to do with King Kong a huge interactive ape has to be coming right and you look at this dragon next to the shark and jaws and tell me you don't wish that that's what Jaws was like. So Keith Elwin, Brian Eddy just dropped, I think, one of the greatest stern mechanisms into a pinball machine. So well done on this dragon. The only thing I wish it did, I wished when it was talking, the mouth would move up and down with the words of what it's saying, the way the Smaug dragon does in Jersey Jack's Hobbit. But it's okay. I'd rather it be a bash toy and be interactive because Smaug is just a hand puppet in that Hobbit game. So we've got that going on in this game and that is awesome. Okay, then we've got the next major mech in the game is this gelatinous cube. Is that what it is called? I don't know this stuff, by the way. I love it when the stream was happening and these D&D nerds are like, that's not the guy from Monsters, Inc. That's the beholder. And I'm going to tell you right now, everybody, 99.9% of grown men who have had sexual relations in life have no idea what the beholder is. Okay, so don't come at us with your D&D geekness because that's going to land you what happened when you were a kid. It's going to land you in a headlock from your other male friends who don't want to hear it about the beholder. So we've got this gelatinous cube that freezes the ball with the magnet. It's really huge. I love the balance going on in this game of fire and ice. You notice that the blue and the red. It has a really, really nice sort of balance between those two. And then it freezes the ball there and you have to knock the ball out to put it back into play. And that's not all, right? Another interactive toy in the game. Then we also have the dungeon entrance that pops up below the play field and you can shoot the ball into there. So those three things for the most part are the major interactive toys in the game And like George Gomez always says you need three major toys to shoot at And I happy to see three major toys in this game I also happy to report it's not a fan layout. It has an upper right flipper. It's got a lot of different pathways to shoot at. You know, and I also love the fourth thing I want to call out that I love, because I think one of the things that is fun about pinball and one of the most fun things you can put into a pinball machine is a unique way to keep the ball in play. I'm always shocked that more pinball machines don't have really awesome ways to keep the ball alive, right? Like the shooting stars and totem. And I love the shield in the middle of the flipper gap that pops up and saves your ball. And depending on which character you select, you're going to get more time with that shield. OMG. Yes. More of this, please, Stern and everybody else. Like if Harry Potter doesn't have like some magical way to save the ball, what are we even doing here? So that is really cool. You know, when I'm looking at the game right now, I just want to say this. If you're a fan of Dungeons and Dragons, and I don't know anybody who is, but if you are, You just got one of the coolest pinball machines ever Based on a theme you love and I love also the details here Like the flipper bats have artwork on them It really feels like stern threw a lot into this game when you look at the artwork It is a little busy. You got the map down low that has all these different ways to go You've got the fire on the left with the dragon. You've got the pathway to the gelatinous cube. There's a lot going on, but it feels very D&D. You know, it almost feels like a D&D book when you open it up and you sort of put the map on the table. That's what this feels like. This feels like it was designed as Dungeons and Dragons from the ground up. And that's another thing that really excites me. This does not feel like Mandalorian. when Mandalorian came out it felt like Brian Eddy was designing something else and they re-skinned it as Mandalorian it made no sense why is there an upper playfield that's his helmet that doesn't make any sense and so when I look at this game what excites me it's clearly designed as Dungeons and Dragons from the ground up you could not make this any other game maybe you could turn it into a Game of Thrones but there's nothing else you could turn this into and I think we need more of that. From the ground up, they designed it as Evil Dead. They didn't re-skin it as Looney Tunes as well. And I love this. I think it's a good start to the year in pinball if we're gonna get creativity like this. Now, the other part about the game that I don't think we know enough about yet that's gonna make this game really either interesting or confusing is the code. And so when you watch that six minute video, There was that moment when Dwight comes in and starts talking. How many of you, like me, it's like in your head, you just kind of fall back in your seat when you hear Dwight explain a rule set in pinball. And it just makes me nervous. I feel like Dwight, Dwight would make how to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich confusing, confusing. You know what I'm saying? Like he just has this way when he's talking. It's like, oh, you get really nervous. but I really do feel like he is the right guy for D&D. I mean, he is a guy that makes overly complex role-playing game rule sets for pinball and hello, ding, ding, ding, Dungeons & Dragons is exactly that. So they got the right guy on the job and so it's really interesting about this game. You select from four characters and you can level them up. You can't create your own custom characters which would have been nice. I think it would have been nice to create Kaneda the Brave and make him horrible at pinball. And then when you sign in, you're signing in with your character. I think that was a missed opportunity to give people the chance to like customize their characters. Like why can't you name the character after you? You know, using the game itself the same way you put in your name at the end of a game. That would have been really cool. So you pick the four different characters and then you go on this journey. and they talk about it like that. It's a journey where you're going to be able to sort of select the way you go through the world and you're going to be able to select the way you go through the dungeon. But here's where it gets really interesting is every Sunday, they're going to reset and randomize the world within Dungeons and Dragons. So the pathways are going to change. And what's waiting at the end of each passageway is going to change every single Sunday. And when I heard that, I was like, well, really? Like, how many Sundays are you going to keep this going? I think what they mean by that is they're not going to continually code like new stuff behind each passageway. I think they're just going to be able to randomize it. So if they have like 30 different things you can run into, they'll just randomize that and that will create hundreds, if not thousands, of different possibilities of how you can play the game. I wonder if this is going to work well on location or more like Dungeons & Dragons, is this going to be a better game to play in your basement where you can get more intimate with all of that? because how many people out there are really going to study and remember how the dungeon is laid out each Sunday? And are you going to run to your game every Sunday to try to find out what moved around in that world? I don't know. I don't know. I don't think so. It doesn't feel very pinball-like, but maybe. But hey, for you D&D nerds out there, maybe that's what you love about D&D and that will excite you. Something I didn't see on the play field that was a little surprising was the 20-sided die. I thought that would be something you would bash and spin, but we definitely seeing that die all over the animations As far as the animations go they look really good They look really good So you combine those great animations with all the voice actors in this game They've got Kevin Smith. I'm surprised they didn't show his face. They showed the other two guys. And then they're like, and Kevin Smith, who we're not gonna show you, by the way. Come on, man, take some video, Jody and Mr. Sharp. Come on, it's like weird. Like, hey, we got these three dudes, the most famous of all three we're not going to show so again again a great world under glass well done stern pinball now here's the part i don't like i don't like the le at all like i think the le is the worst of the three i'm looking at them right now and they've got that big beholder on the right side and that's the side they're using to sell the game again big mistake it's called Dungeons and Dragons. I want to see a big dragon on the right side of the cabinet. You don't really see it. I like the premium much better than the LE and also the trans light on the pro is the nicest. Why can't Stern just get this right? And there's something about that red armor I just don't like at all. And it's the way it's clashing with the green and the blue of the artwork and I wrote this on my Facebook page but the way the flames of the armor are interrupting the artwork itself it's distracting it doesn't look good and I'm sorry Stern you need to get better at this when the artist is designing artwork for a cabinet the dimensions by which they should fill should also take into account how the armor will interrupt the art package that they're creating for the game because it's clear what he did he made it to fit the space of the entire cabinet but he didn't realize that you know they're going to be covering up some of that dynamic artwork with the armor and I think it looks bad I just don't think it looks good and here's the other part I don't get so why do you have red armor on an le and then the t-molding on the backbox is black and then you have black armor on the premium and the T molding is red. If you take the backbox from the premium with the red T molding and put it on the red LE armor, it's going to look better and vice versa. So here's the big thing. The thing is this, you know, I like the fact that they talk about this as being on a journey because I think each and every one of us is also on a pinball journey. And so as excited as I am about this game, here's the big journey we're all on. When do you start your journey if you want to own a Dungeons and Dragons game? We all know that this LE is not going to sell out and you can't absorb a new in box pinball reveal without thinking about two things. How do I feel about the game and is now the right time to go in on one. And if you don't think that way, something's broken in your head because over the last three years now, we have significant data that shows us if you really want this game, you're really going to be able to get a great deal on it if you wait. The only time you need to go in right away is when there's a feeding frenzy to get one and the LEs sell out right away like Jaws, like Metallica LE, and that's really it. Everything else was always super easy to get. And every few months an LE loses like $1,000 on its way to being worth around $9,000 to $10,000. And so when I look at D&D and this LE, like it's not going to sell out. It doesn't look any better than the premium. In fact, I think the premium artwork is nicer. And I think Stern has a problem because remember, Stern's entire business model is built around the LE frenzy. If the LE frenzy isn't there, their entire model of how they sell games, it starts to collapse like a house of cards. Because remember, their customers are the distributors and they need distributors to buy every single LE and they have an agreement. If you get this many LEs, we're only going to give you the LE if you agree to buy this many premiums and this many pros. Okay, but what happens when those LEs at 13,000 aren't moving out the door? Then you've got these distros that are loading up on every LE on all these premiums and pros because they had to buy it in a bundle and all of a sudden they're going to get nervous because what happens if this game doesn't fly off the shelves at MSRP? And I'm here to tell you right now, this game is not going to fly off the shelves at MSRP because it's Dungeons and Dragons, because it's not a theme that has that take my money now for most of you. And also because most of you have seen themes that are even more popular than this have lost so much value over the last two to three years that the wise man, if you're a wise wizard in the world of D&D, you're simply gonna wait. And here's the crazy part. If you want an LE and you wait six months or less, right, the code's not gonna be done in six months, right? So you might as well wait. If you wait and you really want this, you're gonna be able to get an LE for the price of a premium And you're going to be able to get a premium for like $2,000 less than it is today. And that's the current state of all of Stern's games, unless it's a hit game that is an instant sellout. And it's so easy now to sort of gauge that. This game is not going to be that. And I think what sucks is is this game is kind of amazing looking right It absolutely is an amazing effort It just not a theme most of you want Most of you don want to go deep into like the D world A dungeon resetting itself every Sunday doesn't really excite you. It will for the D&D fanatics. And so it's interesting, right? I think Stern has made one of its greatest worlds under glass of all time, wrapped it up in a theme that doesn't have that much demand by the pinball buying demographic. And I think we're seeing the same thing with Evil Dead. I saw a newsletter from Spooky. We've almost sold 700. Really? It's been like a month. I feel like it's been almost a month now and we've almost sold 700. They sold 750 Rick and Mortys in one day, in one freaking day. When they sell Goonies, they're going to sell all 1,000 of them in one day. The reason why they haven't sold 700 Evil Deads is because it's Evil Dead and it's not mainstream enough. It doesn't have enough crossover appeal with the pinball buying demographic. And heck, look at everything that's in Evil Dead and it's $3,000 less than Dungeons and Dragons. Now, look, let's not pretend that there's anything mechanically in Evil Dead. as good as that dragon. There's not. They didn't get Michael Dorn. They don't have like celebrity voices in there. I know Bruce Campbell in there. You know, his call outs are not as animated as the stuff in the Stern game. But here's the thing. I think they're both epic machines built on mediocre themes for the pinball buying demographic, but they're both great machines. And that's what excites me about pinball is I want to see efforts like this. We should applaud efforts like this. And we're allowed to applaud and praise these games and still not buy them. Because by not buying them, we are sending these companies a message. I like what you did here, but I still want a better theme. And to me, that's where I'm at. I think a lot of you are at that place. I think it's going to be a great 2025 because we know the better themes are coming. And it's like I said, there's never been a greater time to wait and see. You know, when people rush in and order an LE like they did yesterday, I look at people like that. I'm like, why? Like, why? And I get it. I get it. Like, a lot of them are rich. A lot of them don't care. But I always say to them, like, I get that you have money, but why would you want to buy something for 13 that you know you can get for 10 in just a few months. Brand new condition. Why? Like, I don't get it. And again, they just make so much money, you know, and that's it. That's it. You should only do that if you're very rich and you make so much money a week. It doesn't matter. I get it. I get it. For a lot of people, $3,000 is nothing. For most of us, it isn't nothing and the smart person will wait and see. So again, in summary, I love this game from Stern. I love all the passion that went into it. I think it's the most creative thing Brian Eddy's done since he's been at Stern. I think Dwight is going to kill it on the rule set of this game. I think the call outs are going to be fun. I think the animations are great. But I also think if you don't love D&D, all of that might not click with you. It just might not. But I'm really excited. We should just be so excited that Stern Pinball has made a mechanism like that dragon. Look at Avatar, people. A $15,000 Avatar doesn't have a single interactive toy. I can't underscore this enough. Stern Pinball showed me in this game that they can create a mechanical thing that is embarrassing. Anything we've seen mechanically from Jersey Jack. Jersey Jack, the ball's in your corner now, guys. You better show up with Harry Potter and it better be more magical than this game. And in the end, you know who's going to win? It's not Jersey Jack. It's not Stern. It's not spooky. In the end, it's going to be us. The consumers are going to win. These companies are going to have to throw magic at us if they want us to spend this much money. It's our world now. It's not theirs. They're going to have to do a lot. And I think what's going to happen here is Stern's going to be like, wow, we did all this work. And how come this game isn't selling like hotcakes? Because again, it's not a theme. Most people want it. And you've also passed on so many, so many losses to your buyers, guys. I mean, it's almost like buying an LE now means nothing. It's not a moment like that LE. The Translight is hideous on it. What are you guys doing? You got to make the LE so much nicer. It looks horrible. And you shouldn't need a blowhard in Connecticut now. Like telling you this, like you could have done a focus group and just called me in and be like, guys, this LE, no, like you got to change it up. It's not working. It's not nice enough, especially following how beautiful Metallica LE was, especially following how beautiful X-Men LE was. This isn't good enough. It's a step backwards and it's the easiest thing to get right. Again, if the LE doesn't sell out, Stern's entire frenzy and hype and FOMO falls apart. Oh yeah. And before I end this episode, everybody, the Twippy voting is open. Make sure you go vote for Kaneda and your favorite in pinball. It's out there. I'll share links. So make sure you do that. I just want to remind everybody and I'm getting ready now for my Saturday morning spectacular. Peace out. You're gonna hear me roar