Episode 1206: "URGENT!!! Why Dune May Become a Cult Classic!!!!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 9s·analyzed·Apr 2, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 (batch) · $0.014

TL;DR

Dune positioned for cult classic status; community goodwill; manufacturing quality concerns.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Dune's potential to become a cult classic pinball machine, drawing parallels to Pirates of the Caribbean's secondary market trajectory. He predicts Dune will settle at $16,000-$18,000 once production ends, driven by rarity and continued code updates. He also covers community dynamics (a soldier's Beetlejuice delivery arranged through the community), manufacturing quality issues with Pokémon, and his personal collection plans.

Key Claims

Dune is going to have a second life as a cult classic game that will be bolted to the floors of owners
medium confidence · Kaneda, analyzing Dune's future market position
Dune will settle around $16,000 to $18,000 once all units are made and no more are available
medium confidence · Kaneda, making price prediction based on rarity and code update trajectory
Pirates of the Caribbean went from $12,500 CE availability to $40,000 secondary market during COVID because Jersey Jack stopped making them
high confidence · Kaneda, using historical market data as comparison
Barrels of Fun has only experienced FOMO/instant sellout once before with Winchester Mystery House
medium confidence · Kaneda, noting Winchester as company's first true FOMO moment
Spooky Pinball only had one instant sellout with Rick and Morty; Evil Dead sat unsold for months before becoming $18,000 games
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing FOMO dynamics across boutique manufacturers
Dune was released too early to market before proper demand establishment
medium confidence · Kaneda, analyzing Dune's launch timing strategy
If Barrels of Fun's next game is Never Ending Story, it will be a regrettable choice; Big Trouble in Little China would be better received
low confidence · Kaneda, expressing opinion on future game themes
Pokémon LE is currently at code version 0.81 with significant development remaining
high confidence · Kaneda, reporting actual code version status of his personal Pokémon machine

Notable Quotes

“I have connected with the powers that be, with Joe over at Pinball Star, with Buggin' Luke and Morgan. I'm happy to tell you that your game is gonna be ready for your birthday and your son's birthday in June.”
Kaneda @ ~1:30 — Community goodwill gesture coordinating delivery of Beetlejuice for a service member on military leave
“I think this game is going to maybe have a second life... I think this game is gonna have a nice cult following. And I think this game is gonna be bolted to the floors of the people that have one.”
Kaneda @ ~3:45 — Core thesis of episode: Dune positioned as future cult classic with strong holder retention
“So here's the thing about Dune. As you know, this game is beautiful. It is a theme that nobody really asked for. Like if you did surveys, Timothée Chalamet's Dune doesn't really have a huge following in the world of pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~5:20 — Acknowledges Dune's niche appeal yet argues for quality and execution as secondary market drivers
“Pirates of the Caribbean, when it first came out, everybody wanted it when it was revealed. Then they removed the mechanisms from the game, the triple spinning disc, and we didn't get any of the assets from the movie. And then when the game finally came out, nobody really wanted it.”
Kaneda @ ~6:30 — Historical market reversal example used as comparison for Dune's potential trajectory
“Jersey Jack had to make games that were easier to make, that wouldn't break down. Pirates, not so much. A lot more you have to tinker with to get that game to work consistently.”
Kaneda @ ~9:15 — Reliability contrast between Dune and Pirates affecting long-term collector appeal
“I think Dune Pinball, once all are made and you know, there's no more on the line ever, I think this game is going to settle around $16,000 to $18,000 for a Dune.”
Kaneda @ ~12:00 — Specific price prediction anchoring episode's investment thesis
“If the next game is the Never Ending Story, I think he's going to regret it. If the next game is anything else that's popular with this demographic, I think he's going to have a home run on his hands.”

Entities

Kanedaperson David Van Nessperson Jack DangerpersonAntoniopersonJoepersonBuggin' LukepersonMorganpersonKarl DeAngeloperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda detecting positive sentiment shift around Dune on Pinside forums, positioning the game as undervalued despite initial slow commercial performance
medium · Was in the Dune thread and observed community discussion that shifted his view on long-term potential; notes game is getting great reviews from people who own it
$
market_signal: Pokémon LE beginning to list at $19,000-$20,000 range; Kaneda questions sustainability of these prices once full production cycle completes
medium · I'm starting to see more people list their Pokémon LEs for around like 20 grand, 19 grand... I think once all these are out there, I don't know if you're gonna get that much for the game
?
product_concern: Pokémon unboxing resulted in playfield misalignment, bent railing, and scratched glass at factory level, requiring full machine replacement
high · playfield was not latched properly onto the bar by the lockdown bar... it bent like the railing in the back of the game. It also scratched the glass. He's going to get a new game sent to him
?
collector_signal: Dune positioned to accumulate scarcity premium as production ends; similar trajectory to Pirates of the Caribbean which escalated from easily available to $40,000+ when no more could be acquired
medium · once everybody knew that no more could be had and the game was getting great reviews from people, it created a very late surge in demand... who are we to say that this won't happen with Dune?
?
community_signal: Multiple community members offered to trade Beetlejuice pre-order spots to accommodate military service member Antonio's delivery timing for birthday celebration during R&R

Topics

Dune secondary market valuation and cult classic potentialprimaryFOMO dynamics and production scarcity driving secondary market pricesprimaryPirates of the Caribbean as historical market reversal precedentprimaryCommunity goodwill and altruism (Beetlejuice delivery for military service member)secondaryManufacturing quality control issues in new releasessecondaryBarrels of Fun's next game announcement timing and theme selectionsecondaryPokémon code maturity and version progressionmentionedPersonal collection management and game curationmentioned

Sentiment

neutral(0)

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

We're running with the shadows of the night, so baby take my hand, you'll be alright. Surrender all your dreams to me tonight, they'll come true in the end. Welcome everybody to a great Thursday. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the world's self-proclaimed greatest pinball podcast and most humble pinball podcast at the same exact time. How is everybody doing? It is now April 2nd. We got past maybe the most annoying day in all of pinball, which is April Fool's Day, in which everybody just puts up something stupid and says, how about this pinball machine? And none of it is real. There was an image on Pinball Brothers, like a schematic. Was that real? Jack Danger always puts up some funny theme. You know the drill. And I'm like, man, I'm bummed out that your game is not going to look this terrible. And he was laughing. And so we've survived it. And I'm here to tell you on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, I've got some very great news. First I want to thank everybody and you know who you are. There was about five of you that reached out and offered to switch your Beetlejuice spot to help out Antonio over there serving our great nation. I am here to tell you, Antonio, I hope you're sitting down. I have connected with the powers that be, with Joe over at Pinball Star, with Buggin' Luke and Morgan. I'm happy to tell you that your game is gonna be ready for your birthday and your son's birthday in June. And all we ask of you is that you share this magical moment with all of us because it is gonna be incredible. Now, Spooky Pinball, make sure the game works out of the box. But you know, we are gonna make sure that this game is arriving and set up and in your home when you are on your R&R and your birthday celebrations, reach out to Joe at Pinball Star. He will give you all of the details. So I am so excited. I mean, it wasn't even like there was much of a delay. They were like, yeah, let's do this. We're gonna do this. We're gonna make it happen. So thank you so much. And again, thank you to all of you out there who also offered to create a salve for this great gentleman. This is what this hobby is about. More of this, right? More of this and less of the complaining and the bickering and the drama. Well, speaking of drama, it's funny. I was on Pinside this morning, you know, I wake up four in the morning trying to sleep, turn off a true crime podcast, and I go into the thread that's blowing up for a little bit and it's the Dune thread. I want to talk a little bit about Dune on this episode because I do have a little bit of a feeling that this game is going to maybe have a second life. I don't mean like orders are gonna roll in anymore. I think they're done taking orders. They've set the amount they're gonna make. But I mean, I think this game is gonna have a nice cult following. And I think this game is gonna be bolted to the floors of the people that have one, and it's gonna create an interesting thing. And I'm gonna make a comparison in a little bit. But before I get to that, I was in the Dune thread, and all of a sudden I read something that made me laugh out loud. This guy posts, urgent help, urgent. I need urgent help. That's the word he used, urgent. His sandworm is having an issue. It's making a grinding sound. It's going up halfway and it's not working properly. Okay, so like I said on one of my previous shows recently, instead of going to Barrels of Fun first, the company that made this game, the engineers that made this mechanism, and it is a very, very awesome mech. It is very complex. Before he goes to Barrels of Fun, he goes to Pinside and says, I need urgent help. Urgent. What is urgent about a pinball machine that you own having a little bit of a mechanical hiccup? Where's the urgency? Is someone like having an asthma attack and they need their inhaler? Like, I don't understand. And this is the thing about these gentlemen. It's like, what's urgent? Nothing. Stop running to Pinside and writing these paragraphs and taking these photos. What are you doing? Just wait until the next day and call the company up. Put on those big boy cargo shorts and just call the company up. It just makes no sense. Nobody on that thread knows how to fix it. You think these dudes pounding whiskey at night that barely know how to solder are going to be able to fix your complex worm mechanism? No, they're not. So just have a little patience and don't scream like a baby when your game's having a little mechanical hiccup. Alright, so let's talk about this game. So here's the thing about Dune. As you know, this game is beautiful. It is a theme that nobody really asked for. Like if you did surveys, Timothée Chalamet's Dune doesn't really have a huge following in the world of pinball. But David and Team, they went and got all the assets. They got the orchestration. They made this game like the greatest theme integrated Dune machine based on the new films. I'm curious if they're gonna put in the third movie's assets and I think they easily could because if you look at this game, the way it's laid out, it literally is that world and there's nothing that's like only movie one or two specific. And so I think that might happen and if that does happen and they put in that whole trilogy of this franchise later on as a code update, ah, you know, this is where I'm starting to feel like this game could be the next Pirates of the Caribbean. And let me explain myself. Now, I don't think it's going to be like COVID Pirates of the Caribbean, but I think it might have a chance of being a game that people might kick themselves that they didn't get one when one was easy to get. Let's look at the similarities. Pirates of the Caribbean, when it first came out, everybody wanted it when it was revealed. Then they removed the mechanisms from the game, the triple spinning disc, and we didn't get any of the assets from the movie. And then when the game finally came out, nobody really wanted it. It sat. It sat at distros. It was easy to get for $12,500 for the CE. And then like when COVID hit, we saw people paying $40,000 for one. So let me ask all of you, why did Pirates go from being a game that nobody wanted to a game that was getting $40,000 on the table? And the answer is simply this: because Jersey Jack didn't make anymore. Once everybody knew that no more could be had and the game was getting great reviews from people, it created a very late surge in demand. So who are we to say that this won't happen with Dune? And also, Dune has all of the assets. Pirates of the Caribbean has none of the assets. I mean, when you think about it, Dune is a much, much better theme integrated pin than Pirates of the Caribbean. Now, Dune also, I would say, has just as much cool mechanically going on as Pirates. Well, maybe, maybe not, right? I mean, that upper playfield on Pirates is still the greatest upper playfield of all time. And when you stand over a Pirates, I mean, it is next level loaded. Don't stand over a Pirates and then go over to Harry Potter and, you know, think both games are equal in terms of what they put into it. Lift the hood on a Pirates, lift the hood on a Harry Potter, and, you know, I understand. Jersey Jack had to make games that were easier to make, that wouldn't break down. Pirates, not so much. A lot more you have to tinker with to get that game to work consistently. But Dune, when they make, I don't know, what is it, 700, 800 total machines ever, all of a sudden, if this game sort of keeps getting these code updates and it has all the assets and the experience of the game really blows people away, who are we to say that this game might not have a second life? Now, what do I think Dune might escalate to in terms of price to get one? Let's talk about that because it's not going to go to like 30,000 or 25,000. That's not happening. And the reason also that is not going to happen is a few reasons. First and foremost, Jersey Jack, when Pirates was made, was like number two, right? They were established. They had a lot of buyers. They had a lot of collectors. When it comes to collecting things, not a lot of people collect Barrels of Fun games. Like Labyrinth didn't really hit, Dune didn't hit, and yet Winchester is the first game that this company really experienced that FOMO, right? That instant moment of sellout. Spooky been feeling it only once as well, right? Spooky had it with Rick and Morty, but no other Spooky games like sold out instantly. Like people forget this. Evil Dead was available for months, for months. The last 25 games sat unsold for months. And then once they were gone, once they were sold, then all of a sudden now we're looking at $18,000 Evil Dead prices. You see what happens once there's no more new and this is it and people aren't really going to let them go because the experience is amazing. That's really the requirement of a game to reach catastrophic levels of like value. If the game is great and the game is rare and there are no more versions or iterations of this game ever happening, no more anniversary editions, the sky could be the limit. So with Dune, here's what I think is going to happen, because when the game came out, they released it too early. Okay? Also, as I was saying, Jersey Jack has a collector base, and also, like, when Jersey Jack was making Pirates, nobody else had anything, like, on that level of, like, that loaded of a game, and really was, like, that much better. The thing about the pinball hobby now is, it's like, you can almost be, like, pinball before Godzilla and pinball after Godzilla. There's just so many good games now that are out there that are available. It's hard for stuff to really like be looked at as like the grail. And I don't think, you know, just theme alone that Dune will be a grail theme for most people just based on theme alone. But I do think Dune is going to once they're all made, it is going to become a game that is hard to get one. And it's going to be a game where if they keep doing what they're doing with the code, it's going to keep like holding at a very good price. Here's my estimation. I think Dune Pinball, once all are made and you know, there's no more on the line ever, I think this game is going to settle around $16,000 to $18,000 for a Dune. I know that sounds high now, but I just think that's going to happen. The other reason I think that's going to happen is because of the Winchester effect. A lot of these Winchesters, I think those games are going to hold. There's not many out there. It's a unique game. It's a Karl DeAngelo game. It looks great. The sound is great. Everything about this game, it's got a lot in it. You know what I'm saying? Like it's a lot, it's a full package game. And I think people who buy it are going to be very, very hesitant to ever let it go because of how hard it is to get another one. That's really what it comes down to. Like I've got a Fix It Felix Jr. arcade machine downstairs. One of the only ones Disney made. They commissioned these games. They made about like 10 are in private hands around the world. You know, and when I asked like $12,000 for it, you know, people like hem and haw, but like the reality is this. It's so much easier for me to make $12,000 than it will be for me to ever find another one. And that is why people who understand true, true rarity understand asking for all these things are in private hands in the world. If you're interested, let me know because I may be letting this thing go. I know I'm gonna regret it, but this is an original Disney commission game. It's not a fake one, it's not one of these ones on eBay. It's amazing. Anyway, my thing is Dune, I think 16 to 18. I don't think it's gonna slide much below that. Now, no word on the topper that apparently they needed money for, but look, it's a good time for Barrels of Fun. And I think the next game to me is like going to be very critical because I think David's got the wind behind his sails right now. He's got some mojo going. Remember, this guy, his choices on games sometimes make me a little anxious. And I think it's going to come down to one very simple thing. If the next game is the Never Ending Story, I think he's going to regret it. If the next game is anything else that's popular with this demographic, I think he's going to have a home run on his hands. We know that Big Trouble in Little China is rumored to be a potential thing. They have hired the designer who made the homebrew of that game. That's a good sign. So I really hope it is Big Trouble and not the Never Ending Story. And we're gonna see what the next game is from Barrels of Fun probably in October, right when Back to the Future is about to drop. My advice to David and team is this: Don't reveal a game too soon. You saw what happened. You know, if you reveal the situation, you healed your spleen and spleen stalled reproduce as a problem before you were able to restore it. Some would even do this without the first one. There's nothing! There's no teasing, there's no this, there's no that, there's no Steve Ritchie on April Fool's Day being like, I'm gonna show you an image of my new game. Nothing! It's just nothing. Like, I get it, I get it. This hobby loves to just do the FOMO. Everything's a secret until the day they want your money, and then you wait three years if you ordered a Yukon Yeti. Aw man, stop making fun of the Yukon Yeti manufacturing timeline! I don't know, I can't, I can't stop, I can't stop. So what else is happening in pinball? We see these Pokémons are going out sporadically. These Ellies are going out sporadically. Some people are getting them, some people are still waiting. We saw what happened to Don's machine over at We Are Pinball. Man, brutal unboxing. He unboxes the game and the playfield was not latched properly onto the bar by the lockdown bar or into the holes. And it caused the playfield to sort of slide back in the game and it bent like the railing in the back of the game. It also scratched the glass. So he's going to get a new game sent to him and that game is going to go back and get fixed. But how does that even happen? It must have happened at the factory. So good news is it's not going to be a headache for long. A new game is arriving pretty shortly. And we don't see this very often. So every once in a while there's going to be a little bit of a lemon that makes its way out into the world. And you know, that is why these companies have a little bit of a warranty. Now, imagine keeping that game in a box for a year, the warranty expires, and then you unbox it. I'm starting to see more people list their Pokémon LEs for around like 20 grand, 19 grand. We'll see. I think once all these are out there, I don't know if you're gonna get that much for the game. The code is still at .81. There's a lot to go with this game. My game is ready. My game is ready to ship. Automated has it. So we're setting up a date. And I'm just wondering, what do you think I should do? Should I take the game right now and give Killian an amazing spring with this game? Or should I wait a little bit for the code to get further along? I'm most likely gonna take the game because Killian has no idea about code. What up, Brenda? Killian doesn't know code. Brent is yelling Killian doesn't know code. He doesn't know code. Imagine if he did. Imagine if like our child is like this looks like it's on point 81. What's up daddy? Like where's the evolution of the Pokémon characters in this game? This Pokédex is not where it needs to be. Imagine if all of a sudden he displayed some sort of like incredible cognitive ability to understand pinball code with this game. So we will take the game. I'm working with Frank on a delivery date and I'm going to have them store Guns N' Roses. I actually think I'm going to sell Guns N' Roses. I actually think that I would love this game to find a new home. It is game number 500. It is in great condition. It's Kaneda's personal machine. I don't know if that adds value or reduces the value of the game. And here's the thing. What do you think? I'm curious. What do you think a Guns N' Roses CE in great condition is worth in today's market? I'm on the fence about what to charge for this game. I probably want to get a quicker sale versus like listing it at a higher price and waiting forever. But once it's out Automated, it's going to be an easy game to shift to someone. If someone out there has been looking for a Guns N' Roses CE, let's find this game a new home. I've had my fun with it. It's time for someone else. It's a good game for a bigger collection. It's not a good game if it's the only game in your household. I think Pokémon is going to be a great game, like a single game in here until Beetlejuice arrives. It's going to be a great game. And then we're going to do the two games in this household, one in the garage, one upstairs. I might see if I can move the furniture around up here so we can get two up here. It's going to be tight. And you know me, I like less clutter as I get older. Everybody have a great Thursday. Kaneda out.