Episode 1003: "Breakdown Before My Break"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 18s·analyzed·Sep 26, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda's pre-break breakdown: X-Men code concerns, Avatar CE superiority, Spooky's December momentum, and Harry Potter's February arrival.

Summary

Kaneda provides a comprehensive pre-Expo breakdown of the pinball manufacturer landscape, analyzing current delays and code quality concerns for X-Men (Stern), Avatar (Jersey Jack), and upcoming releases from Spooky, Chicago Gaming, Dutch Pinball, and others. He emphasizes code quality over aesthetics as the critical differentiator, expresses skepticism about current FOMO dynamics, and predicts major momentum shifts with the December release of Spooky's next title and February arrival of Harry Potter.

Key Claims

X-Men LEs have a $13,000 price point with delivery delays and incomplete code that won't be game-ready for 6-8 months
high confidence · Kaneda (host) discussing Stern's X-Men LE delays and code maturity concerns
Avatar LE units should not be purchased; wait for CE which will have superior playfields, nicer topper, and better armor/UV ink
high confidence · Kaneda's direct recommendation against LE purchases in favor of CE
Harry Potter must feature synced video with voices; absence would require intervention from Brett Abbott and Ken Cromwell
high confidence · Kaneda's explicit demand for Harry Potter's software features
Spooky's next game (predicted to be Goonies) will release in December and capture market fatigue from X-Men, Avatar, and Metallica Remastered
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on timing and market dynamics
Dutch Pinball's Alice's Adventures in Wonderland will be revealed within a week and is priced competitively with significant playfield features
high confidence · Kaneda stating imminent reveal and describing game features (magnets, topper, laser etching, sculpts)
Chicago Gaming's Pulp Fiction LEs have stalled due to delays, losing consumer interest before Halo announcement
high confidence · Kaneda's criticism of CGC's Pulp Fiction distribution timeline
Back to the Future (Dutch Pinball/Back to the Arcade Future) will not ship until October 2026
high confidence · Kaneda explicitly stating 'next October' timeline
Barrels of Fun may be working on Gremlins, positioning it as potential competition against Spooky's Goonies
medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on Barrels' next project
Modern pinball community is forgiving manufacturers for lack of physical toys, incorrectly conflating shots and UV lighting with toy mechanics

Notable Quotes

“Will the code live up to be as cool as the layout? Will the code be as awesome as the artwork? Will the code have the originality and the creativity of everything else happening in this game?”
Kaneda @ ~5:00-6:00 — Articulates the core concern about X-Men: gorgeous hardware undermined by incomplete software
“By the time this game is done and the code is at a place where I think they're excited about it... it might be six to eight months from now. And then you're going to get brand new games from everybody else.”
Kaneda @ ~6:30-7:30 — Identifies timing disadvantage for Stern as competitors launch simultaneously
“If you ordered an LE, I would cancel my order and wait for the CE. And also we know that Harry Potter is just around the corner.”
Kaneda @ ~12:00-13:00 — Direct purchasing recommendation that signals CE/LE tier positioning and HP launch timing
“If they don't do it, I need to have a personal phone call with Brett Abbott and Ken Cromwell and just figure out what's going on here because Stern has synced up clips, Spooky Pinball does.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00-16:00 — Names JJP leadership as responsible for software decisions on Harry Potter
“You're not going to win me over with a static crab that you don't even bash and he doesn't even move. You gotta be kidding me.”
Kaneda @ ~17:00-18:00 — Specific critique of Harry Potter's crab toy, exemplifying broader demand for interactive playfield elements
“I think Spooky Pinball is at a point where this company is ready to graduate and behave like a big league manufacturer and will they deliver a big league quality product?”
Kaneda @ ~21:00-22:00 — Assesses Spooky's market maturation and inflection point
“I think by December there will be fatigue on X-Men, Avatar and there will be fatigue on stuff like Metallica Remastered and I think they're gonna release at the perfect time.”
Kaneda @ ~23:00-24:00 — Spooky's December release positioned as strategic gap-filling move

Entities

KanedapersonBrett AbbottpersonKen Cromwellperson Mark Seidenperson Melvinperson Keith Elwinperson Frankieperson

Signals

?
code_update: X-Men LE code incomplete and estimated 6-8 months from shipping to game-ready quality; Kaneda questions current software excitement relative to layout/artwork quality
high · Kaneda states: 'By the time this game is done and the code is at a place where I think they're excited about it... it might be six to eight months from now'
?
product_strategy: Jersey Jack using LE as market testing/promotional tool to drive CE sales; Kaneda recommends CE over LE due to superior components and notes streamers receiving promotional units
high · Kaneda: 'the LE is going to be what Jersey Jack uses to sell people on the CE' and recommends canceling LE orders in favor of CE
~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda signals lack of FOMO across current Stern, Jersey Jack, and Chicago Gaming releases; encourages deliberate purchasing decisions over impulse buys
high · Kaneda: 'I don't think there's a sense of urgency or FOMO to get one of these LEs right away' and later 'I don't think there's any FOMO around any of these current games'
?
announcement: Dutch Pinball's Alice's Adventures in Wonderland officially confirmed for reveal within ~1 week; Kaneda expects to have exclusive content before October Expo
high · Kaneda: 'This game, it is coming out. It is going to be revealed in just a week or so' and 'I expect to be sometime before Expo'
$
market_signal: Dutch Pinball's Alice positioned with 'price is right' and competitive features (magnets, topper, laser etching, sculpts); contrasts with high-cost competitors

Topics

Code quality and software maturity as critical success factorprimaryX-Men LE delays and incomplete code concerns at SternprimaryAvatar LE vs CE tier positioning and purchasing recommendationsprimaryHarry Potter's February 2026 launch and feature expectationsprimarySpooky Pinball's December release strategy and market timingprimaryManufacturer financial viability and consolidation pressuressecondaryPhysical toys vs digital/visual effects in game design philosophysecondaryChicago Gaming Company's distribution delays and brand momentum losssecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is optimistic about select manufacturers (Spooky's graduation, Dutch Pinball's refinement) and games (Alice's Adventures in Wonderland's breadth, Harry Potter's potential) but highly critical of code maturity at Stern and Jersey Jack, frustrated with Chicago Gaming's distributor handling, and pessimistic about smaller manufacturers' long-term survival. Overall tone is cautionary rather than enthusiastic.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.061

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda, about to go on my break and I thought what better way to go on a break for a couple of weeks. I'll be back second week in October. I might sneak in a show if Alice's Adventures in Wonderland gets shown to everybody which I think it is and just The end of the day, I'm going to be back with more of the best of the best, and hopefully, I'll see you all next week or so. But first, let me give you a little bit of a break. I'm going to break down what's happening in pinball because I don't think too much is going to happen between now and pinball expo. Let's talk about Stern Pinball. These X-Men LEs are on the line. There's a little bit of a delay in getting these games to consumers. The game is a very expensive game at $13,000. I think everybody has a memory of what happened to all those $13,000 Foo Fighters. Personally, I would much rather own an X-Men over Foo Fighters just because of the theme. But the big question mark, there is a huge question mark that is just hanging over this X-Men game and that is the code. Will the code live up to be as cool as the layout? Terms are as follows. Will the code be as awesome as the artwork? Will the code have the originality and the creativity of everything else happening in this game? I think that's the most important thing about this game. And the problem is this. I don't know how you buy the game right now if the code is going to take a long time to finish. And so are we seeing moments in the software right now that are as exciting as the game itself? I think the answer is no, not yet. So if I were you, I don't think there's a sense of urgency or FOMO to get one of these LEs right away. And I think by the time the code is done, here's the part about this game that's problematic for Stern. By the time this game is done and the code is at a place where I think they're excited about it, and I don't think they're there just yet, it might be six to eight months from now. And then you're going to get brand new games from everybody else. We're going to get Harry Potter, we're going to get maybe Keith Elwins next, Dungeons What are we? Tries of luck slow Started piston as you're watching a laボル beste sam prá Terms of discussion. Terms of discussion. I need more Transform loneliness thinking options more That was not Spike3. So I think it's gonna go Metallica remastered, Dungeons and Dragons and then we're gonna get the introduction of Spike3, the big new thing from the biggest designer Stern has with the biggest ape ever King Kong. I think that is what's gonna happen over at Stern Pinball. Alright, let's go to Jersey Jack. So we got Jersey Jack Pinball. Avatar LEs are on the line. You can order one today. Distributors have them. The game has been streamed a lot over the last couple of weeks. I think the consensus on the game is this. It's a beautiful game. It's got a unique layout. I think Mark Mark Seiden has been welcomed with open arms by the pinball community. You know, he's a really nice guy and I think all the good vibes from the media day are making its way into the coverage by the content creators. I still think it's a theme not most people want. I think when I watch the stream of Avatar, I'm still not getting that energy, that excitement of those big battles. There's a lot of I not sure if they stream this game over the next like two months I just not sure that going to translate into a ton of sales simply because the code itself I don think is delivering like continuous amazing moments of pinball magic I just don see it yet I just don see it But here the thing with Jersey Jack games because they are always so beautiful They like a beautiful The above situations are on this video's session Patreon itself. The video. Maybe all they need to earn a spot into people's game rooms is the most beautiful pinball machines on the planet. And they are doing that unlike everybody else. And the thing is this, this CE is the only model to get. So I don't think we're going to see a lot of LE sales. I wouldn't buy an LE. The CE is going to have the better playfields, the nicest topper maybe in pinball history. The armor is incredible. The three ink UV ink is incredible. And so if you want an avatar, I don't see how you buy the LE unless you're a streamer. Remember people, some of these streamers are getting these games from their distro friends to help them move product because the LE is going to be what Jersey Jack uses to sell people on the CE. I think if you ordered an LE, I would cancel my order and wait for the CE. And also we know that Harry Potter is just a The It is coming out in February and that's going to be difficult for Jersey Jack pinball to navigate that as we start to turn the corner And head towards Harry Potter now look Harry Potter needs Synced up video with voices you have to do it if they don't do it I need to have a personal phone call with Brett Abbott and Ken Cromwell and Jack Winari and just figure out what's going on here because Stern has synced up clips spooky pinball does we can't be the only The only company guys that doesn't do it right in the software department especially with all the effort we put into our games and they do put in a lot of effort. We need to see way more toys on Harry Potter. Everybody knows that. I'm a little bit disappointed in the pinball community in general because the overall consensus is we're forgiving these companies for not having toys. I hear a lot of people talking like the shots are the new toys, UV light is the new toy. All these things are toys. No, they're not toys. We want to see more physical stuff that interacts with the ball. I want to see more environments in pinball, both upper and lower, that do magical stuff. Rock back and forth like the pirate ship, a bowling alley and Big Lebowski. You're not going to win me over with a static crab that you don't even bash and he doesn't even move. You gotta be kidding me. Like the only place the crab moves is on the screen. We just need more and we need more in Harry Potter. The good news is this is The end of the year. My guess is it's going to be Goonies and I think it's really going to win people over. I think Franchi is going to be on artwork. They've got Beetlejuice coming somewhere down the road. Evil Dead. They don't have Sonic the Hedgehog. And so look, I think spooky pinball is going to March in the same way they marched in with Rick and Morty. Captions subject of this ad sourced from XXXxtentacion slicey and donggumhead nied video to baixo for art, and indeed spicyMrS Collection by dalla1 WoaholtI, sorry for all the They've moved into a new factory. They've got everything going in their favor. They've got a great artist. Are we gonna see better toys? I think so. They've got the best playfield company, Bader, making their playfields. They've got a game now. And I mean this. I think Spooky Pinball is at a point where this company is ready to graduate and behave more like a big league manufacturer and will they deliver a big league quality product? I don't think we're gonna see it at Expo. So I definitely will talk to you again before I think we get any new news from Spooky Pinball. I think it's gonna be a December release and I think it's gonna do phenomenally well for them because I think by December there will be fatigue on X-men, Avatar and there will be fatigue on stuff like Metallica Remastered and I think they're gonna release at the perfect time. All right moving on from Spooky Chicago Gaming Company I mean everybody now knows that the game after Pulp Fiction is going to be Halo I don think most people care I don know where these Pulp Fiction LEs are I don think anyone cares anymore They made everybody wait too long and because they didn't treat us with respect, I'm not gonna give them much airtime. I just don't care about CGC. Now that being said, who cares about Pulp Fiction when you're thinking about what's next at CGC? You're thinking about T'wilight Zone remake if they remake the twilightzone I would be an idiot if I didn't predict they're gonna sell a ton of them They will absolutely sell a ton of them and what's gonna be interesting about twilightzone coming back It's the most loaded game in pinball history. What do you price it at right? That's what's gonna be interesting because everything in Comparison to twilightzone is gonna look empty дости?, All of these things are not a matter of quality. There have been some quality issues with CGC. Remember that game Cactus Canyon Remake? You never hear about it. It's like nobody cares anymore about Cactus Canyon Remake. Alright, so that's Chicago GamingCompany. Let's now move onto the company we won't talk about. You know who I'm talking about, right? I don't think they have anything ready to compete. I don't think anything from them is gonna come out before Texas Pinball Festival. And it's never a good time to release a bad game or a theme people don't want. That is what's going to plague this company. And that's it. That's all I'm going to say on that company. All right. Barrels of Fun. Let's talk about them next. Barrels is a company we don't talk about much. The labyrinths are going out the door, and I think now the question really becomes what's Next from Barrels, I think they might have Gremlins and it might be Gremlins vs Goonies, Barrels vs Spooky. An interesting battle because mostly everyone over at Barrels at one point of another went through the hallways of Spooky Pinball. So they are the other boutique company that is like really wants to make a name for themselves. And I'll say this, we don't hear about Labyrinth much, I think for two reasons. It isn't a theme that customer template and fourth ofchts attach pins Tomm Vorner James routNEY days of all the long gamesispon�� blobadec십oundingwhatsupотыway you have to game Esta don't big 긄we hear about them that often. They are not making a ton of games a week, but there are also not games that having a ton of issues. A really smart .れるs entry into pinball for the dies company. Obviously they learn another lot of growing pains about how Martinez playing vexillfach for un Prideed law of tees bekommt temporary com sister net estimated in the history of the Lady Jane przeciacements and a ?? manic Padretti Gaminging is remaking Funhouse. I guess if you really want a Funhouse and you want a beautiful version of Funhouse, knock yourself out, but I think for the most part, it is not going to be a game that is going to dominate much conversation come Pinball Expo and as we head into the end of the year. Alright, after that we've got who? We've got Abba is out now from the Pinball Brothers. You know, it's a game again. Like if you're an Abba fan, I bet you're happy. The game is not truly innovative, it's not that affordable, it's an expensive game, and there's only one version of the game that I would get, there's only one version that looks good, so that's ABBA. It's been out now, and it feels like it hasn't come out, right? I mean that's just always a sign of themes we don't want, and games that aren't doing anything magical, they almost just fall off the radar immediately. Especially when companies like Stern are dropping like jaws revenge code into the world. It's like that one thing alone is more exciting than anything I've seen on ABBA Pinball. Does Pinball Brothers really have like a lot more titles in the arsenal? I don't know. Some of these companies like they just don't have any momentum. I can't imagine all these companies are going to survive over the next couple of years. So one company that will never die is P3 Multimorphic You can stop Jerry He gonna do this thing forever He got more licensed themes coming Now he gotta get people their Princess Bride machines I think they on the line right now So I don expect to hear a lot more about Multimorphic Princess Bride but I am curious because I think Expo will be the first show in which more people will jump on this game and give it some time and get some reviews An interesting theme. I love the movie growing up. It definitely has the nostalgia, but there's still something about the whole platform, which is really hard to sort of warm up to. It's a huge financial investment and if you want to get out of it, you're going to lose your shirt, the kitchen sink and like everything else in your game room because it's like $25,000 if you buy all the different modular kits and then no one's going to come anywhere close to offering that if you want to trade it for something else. Alright, what else is going on in the pinball world? Who are we missing here? How about Dutch Pinball X? Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. This is going to be the talk of October. I think Avatar and X-Men were the talk of September. This game, it is coming out. It is going to be revealed in just a week or so. It is going to generate opinions. This is not going to be a game where you're not going to have an opinion about it. I think some are going to be good, some are going to be mixed. I don't think there's going to be anyone like really angry about this game. I think the price is right. I think he took a foamcore J-pop concept Postultan siguiente numerous, coatslica at AAA months. Everático a surfald,ľošť rá. eatingvirgin realms Theatr��альный gelen interim self-mainirit,ke combin scenariosoid, and the c The Artists from the Big Lebowski finished the project. There's magnets, there's a big topper, there's a good price, there's laser etched armor. There's a lot happening in this game. There's a lot of sculpts from Leor in the game. So you're gonna definitely have an opinion about this game. I haven't really seen much from Melvin on this game over the last few weeks. I think he wanted to have X-Men and Avatar just have their moment on stage and then he's gonna drop with this game. So I will probably have some exclusive stuff for you guys as we get closer to the reveal, which I expect to be sometime before Expo. So that's just like a little less than like two weeks from now. As far as Dutch pinball, we are not going to see Back to the Future until next October. So that's that. Is there anyone else I'm missing? I feel like I always miss somebody and then I don't realize it until the show is recorded. Everybody look, there's a lot going on in pinball. I don't think there's any FOMO around any of these current games. I encourage you to jump on every machine. Make sure you really want it. Don't just order after playing it 10 times. Play it 10 days in a row. You're going to be able if there's an avatar near you, which there probably won't be because operators can't make money on these things, but I would encourage you to play the games.lesed to his annior, If you have games you love, you might not need more. And that's okay. I'm about to be away from the mic for about a couple weeks. I hope you keep your subscription. I've given you more than enough content over the last few weeks that I hope you come back. I hope you don't leave. And I hope you just respect that I need a little personal time for myself and my family. And I will be back better than ever in just a few weeks. Everybody, I love you. Thank you for the support. Canadian Pinball Podcast will return mid-October. Have a great day. Thank you for all the birthday wishes from so many of you. If I didn't personally reply to you, it's because I just got so many. It's so awesome so many of you like Kaneda. Thank you so much. Have a good day. He's the party over sh Iowa.