claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.035
Stern price hikes loom as Metallica (LE) flip for $18k; D&D sales lag while Evil Dead thrives.
Stern Pinball is planning a price increase in January, with LEs potentially reaching $13,600
medium confidence · Don (host) citing distributor invoice and speculation about market trends; uses 'Nostradamus' as a humorous oracle figure for predictions
Metallica (LE) are trading hands in the secondary market for $17,000-$18,000
high confidence · Don reporting direct observation of secondary market pricing; stated as personal witness to deal discussions
Jurassic Park (Home Edition) was clearance-priced at $3,700 at a Costco in Rockford, Illinois
high confidence · Don citing photo leak and personal store visits to confirm pricing and selective regional distribution
Spooky Pinball sold 673 Evil Dead units (215 remaining of estimated 888 total pre-order capacity)
high confidence · Don monitoring Spooky's website order system and calculating remaining inventory from posted limits
Dungeons & Dragons (Brian Eddy) is not tracking as a sales juggernaut like Jaws or Kong
medium confidence · Don expressing opinion based on general market sentiment and game positioning for operators vs. home collectors
Stern operates at a scale where selling 1,500 units is considered a failure; they need 3,000+ persistent sales
medium confidence · Don contrasting Stern's business model with Spooky's smaller production targets and goals
Tron remaster is rumored to be the next Stern remaster after Metallica
medium confidence · Don hearing 'whispers in the blogosphere' about Tron; also referencing skepticism from a mini-golf vendor at an event
Stern has five years of remasters in the pipeline; Ghostbusters is predicted to follow Tron
low confidence · Don speculating about remaster cadence (3 cornerstones + 1 remaster per year) and using 'Nostradamus' for predictions
“if they turned and burned on the next turn cornerstone release thirteen thousand six hundred dollars for the next thousand run nine hundred run whatever they're going to do... I guess I wouldn't be surprised at that figure what i would not be at that figure is a buyer”
Don @ ~early segment — Core thesis: Don predicts LE pricing at $13.6k and expresses doubt that buyers will materialize at that price point
“Turn and burn that thing, man... if you spent the 96.99 msrp for this thing you're still going to clear you know another 7k man so go get on something else”
Don @ ~Metallica segment — Explicit advice to secondary market flippers on Metallica LEs; suggests market has peaked and prices will soften
“I don't think even I would jump at that at an LE... if no one's buying these new in-box games, they're going to sit in distributors and then they'll be sold... We see that happening right now with Jersey Jack's backlog”
Don @ ~pricing segment — Don predicting price correction mechanisms via distributor inventory if Stern overprices; JJP backlog cited as cautionary example
“Spooky Pinball, this plucky company that started from literally nothing... just blossomed into this sprawling compound now on a hilltop in Wisconsin... they're not hard on the eyes either... Hashtag bug stash”
Don @ ~Spooky segment — Affectionate characterization of Spooky's brand identity, scale, and culture vs. Stern; personal brand admiration
“I want to like it. I like Brian Eddy last game. I like Venom... The idea of leveling up, fantastically awesome... come to find out it means absolutely nothing... There's got to be an in-game store”
Don @ ~D&D segment — Specific gameplay criticism of D&D: progression mechanics lack payoff; contrasts with successful in-game currency in Jaws and Mandalorian
“If you got a Tron and you don't like love it, maybe list it before next year when we see this. People are talking about remasters coming once a year now”
Don @ ~Tron segment — Advice to current Tron owners to sell before remaster announcement; implies yearly remaster cadence is expected
market_signal: Stern planning January price increase for LE games to $13,600, following year-plus freeze; Don predicts this will suppress new-in-box sales and create secondary market softening
medium · Distributor invoice received; 'Nostradamus' prediction at $13.6k; Don's observation that Venom LE at $13k was already difficult sell three months post-launch
collector_signal: Metallica LE secondary market trading at $17k-$18k (vs. $12.5-$13k MSRP); Don advises flipping before price softens post-Kong/Harry Potter releases
high · Direct observation of deal discussions; Don notes game will peak and prices will slide; Metallica LE sold out quickly despite high pricing
product_launch: Jurassic Park Home Edition clearance-priced at $3,700 at selective Costco locations four weeks before Christmas; may indicate slower-than-expected retail penetration or successful sellthrough requiring inventory clearing
high · Photo leak of Costco clearance tag; Don confirmed via in-person store checks (Rockford IL had units, Madison WI and Chicago area did not); selective warehouse distribution targeting higher-margin locations
sentiment_shift: Dungeons & Dragons (Brian Eddy) failing to generate sales momentum comparable to recent hits; described as 'not a sales juggernaut'
medium · Don stating explicitly 'Not a sales juggernaut' twice; game criticized for weak progression payoff despite Brian Eddy's design pedigree; positioned as operator-focused rather than collector-friendly
product_strategy: Stern establishing yearly remaster cycle: 3 cornerstone releases + 1 remaster annually; Tron rumored next, Ghostbusters predicted to follow
groq_whisper · $0.098
“How cool would it be to have Ghostbusters remastered, LCD screen, expression lights, backbox lights, fresh coat of paint... no flipper gap, so it plays well and probably how it always should have played in the first place”
Don @ ~Ghostbusters remaster segment — Don articulates vision for meaningful remaster redesign (flipper gap fix, CAD redesign, new art) vs. cosmetic refresh
“These guys don't have to sell 2,000 games just to get to, okay, I guess this was a success, we can break even now. With whatever they've sold now, I'm sure they're happy with it.”
Don @ ~Evil Dead wrap-up — Explains fundamental business model difference between Spooky and Stern; sustainability at different production scales
medium · Don states 'People are talking about remasters coming once a year now'; advises Tron owners to sell before remaster; estimates 5-year pipeline of remasters; 'Nostradamus' sabbatical before next prediction
design_philosophy: John Wick's level-up system criticized for lack of progression payoff; Dungeons & Dragons has similar issue; successful examples (Jaws, Mandalorian) implement in-game currency stores for optional purchases and progression rewards
medium · Don playing John Wick at level 45 with no rewards; D&D praised for leveling concept but criticized for meaningless progression; Don advocates for in-game store adoption across games
business_signal: Stark contrast in business models: Stern requires 3,000+ unit sales to break even; Spooky Pinball profitable with 500-700 unit runs; reflects different manufacturing scales, margins, and sustainability models
high · Don explicitly contrasting break-even thresholds; Stern selling 1,500 units = failure; Spooky selling 500 = success; Evil Dead pre-order run of 673 described as exceeding expectations for Spooky
community_signal: Strong community sentiment favoring Spooky's business model, transparency, fan listening, and post-purchase support vs. Stern's corporate scale; describes Spooky as 'everything we would want'
high · Don's extended eulogy to Spooky's brand; 'plucky company that started from nothing... blossomed into sprawling compound on hilltop'; approval of founders' dedication and appearance ('hashtag bug stash')
product_concern: Ghostbusters LE/Premium units have unusually wide flipper gap; Don proposes remaster should redesign flipper placement via CAD and playfield art adjustments to fix fundamental design issue
high · Don stating flipper gap 'pisses me off'; friend Ed Owens had to learn workaround; Don proposes center post option or full flipper repositioning with new art package as remaster solution
product_launch: Evil Dead (Spooky) entering production end of December 2024; Don monitoring pre-order inventory daily (currently 215 units remaining)
high · Don stating 'Evil Dead is supposed to enter production at the end of this month'; tracking Spooky website order limits; 673 units sold = 215 remaining from estimated 888 capacity
rumor_hype: Tron remaster rumored as next Stern remaster; mixed community reaction; one vendor argued 'Nobody cares about Tron,' but Don sees potential if modernized with new Tron movie tie-in aesthetic
medium · Don hearing 'whispers in the blogosphere'; vendor at 'show floor' arguing against Tron remaster for 45 minutes; Don hedging that modernization (EL wires, LCD, better shots) could change his opinion
market_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball struggling with game backlog (Godfather, Toy Story 4, Guns and Roses) not moving at MSRP; prices down $2,500+ below list, with Godfather 'not even worth the discount'
high · Don citing JJP backlog as cautionary example for what happens when games overprice; used as model for potential Stern LE distribution failure if priced at $13.6k