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Episode 1131: "Stern is Acting Like They Know Star Wars Isn't Great"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·28m 40s·analyzed·Sep 3, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.037

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Star Wars pinball will be mediocre based on Stern's complete lack of pre-launch hype and passion.

Summary

Kaneda expresses deep skepticism about Stern's Star Wars pinball machine launching in one week, arguing that the complete lack of hype, insider enthusiasm, and pre-release marketing indicates mediocrity rather than the anticipated blockbuster hit. He critiques Stern's exhausted, formula-driven approach to game launches, compares them unfavorably to competitors like Jersey Jack and Spooky Pinball who show genuine passion, and questions whether John Borg's two-flipper design philosophy will deliver the iconic experience Star Wars fans deserve, ultimately predicting the game will be 'just another Stern' rather than the next Godzilla.

Key Claims

  • There have only been two real Star Wars games in Stern's history (Steve Ritchie's game from ~8 years ago and The Mandalorian); home Costco edition doesn't count

    high confidence · Kaneda directly states this as factual history of Stern's Star Wars lineup

  • Stern hired a new Chief Marketing Officer months ago; this is their first major release under his tenure

    medium confidence · Kaneda references this as known fact but doesn't provide name or detailed sourcing

  • Inside sources at Stern describe the Star Wars game as just 'okay' across multiple dimensions (looks, code speed, overall quality)

    medium confidence · Kaneda claims direct contact with someone at Stern Factory who provided this characterization

  • Keith Elwin is unhappy; Jack Danger quit designing at Stern

    medium confidence · Kaneda states these as facts but provides no sourcing; frames as rumors being discussed

  • Stern is using a smaller AT-ST walker mech instead of the iconic AT-AT walker, recycled from Avatar design

    low confidence · Kaneda says 'I actually now believe the rumor' but provides no evidence; this is speculation

  • Stern sold $2,000 toppers to customers; charged $13,000 for Limited Editions without exclusive toppers or special artwork

    medium confidence · Kaneda references this as established community knowledge but doesn't provide specific product links

  • Spooky Pinball is also overpricing products (e.g., $450 shotgun shooter handles)

    medium confidence · Kaneda acknowledges this as counterexample; suggests even Spooky faces similar criticisms

  • Jersey Jack said they don't care about Sonic the Hedgehog rumors and are so confident in Harry Potter they don't limit Collector's Edition

    medium confidence · Kaneda claims direct conversation with Jersey Jack representative but provides no name

  • Star Wars Limited Edition is capped at 770 units and was previously predicted to sell out and reach $18,000 secondary market

Notable Quotes

  • “This is the biggest IP in all of pinball — bigger than Harry Potter. Not as big as Pokemon in terms of IP sales, but it's bigger than Pokemon in terms of this target audience's affinity for the theme.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Sets stakes for why Star Wars launch expectations should be unprecedented

  • “The game is okay is what I heard directly from someone who's over there. Okay. How does it look? It looks okay. Is the code fast? It's okay. You know, are you happy with your house? It's okay. That is like the ultimate way to say something is mediocre.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core evidence for his mediocrity thesis; sourced from inside Stern

  • “Once you started selling people $2,000 toppers, it was a middle finger to the community. And we haven't forgotten that.”

    Kaneda @ middle segment — Frames broader community resentment about Stern's pricing practices

  • “These products coming from the factory are priced way higher than people value them at. That's not good.”

    Kaneda @ middle segment — Core economic critique: market perception of value doesn't match Stern's pricing

  • “The reason why they sold so many Pros and Premiums to distributors and dealers is so those distributors and dealers could secure their allotments of Limited Editions. Now that means nothing. That has no value.”

    Kaneda @ middle segment — Explains collapse of Stern's traditional supply chain leverage strategy

  • “They seem like an exhausted institution. And I mean that. An exhausted institution has a Star Wars game, has a new Chief Marketing Officer, and does nothing.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Summarizes his core diagnosis: Stern is organizationally depleted

  • “Jersey Jack's like, we don't care that people know that Steve Ritchie is making Sonic the Hedgehog. They said that to me. We don't care. The rumors are out there. It's true. We're so confident in Harry Potter. We're so confident in Steve's next game.”

    Kaneda — Contrasts Stern's silence strategy with JJP's confidence-based transparency model

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyStar Wars PinballgameJohn BorgpersonRay DaypersonKeith ElwinpersonJack DangerpersonJersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Collapse of Stern's traditional Pro/Premium-as-leverage for LE allotments strategy; dealers no longer see value in stocking Pro/Premium if they can't secure LE inventory

    medium · 'The reason why they sold so many Pros and Premiums to distributors and dealers is so those distributors and dealers could secure their allotments of Limited Editions. Now that means nothing.'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Widespread silence from Stern insiders, media, and community about Star Wars excitement one week before launch; no early buzz or hype generation

    high · 'No hype, no energy, no enthusiasm, nobody's speaking about how they can't wait for us to see the game, nothing. In fact, what we are hearing and what is trickling out from the Stern Factory is a lot of mediocrity.'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Jersey Jack positioning as transparent, confident alternative to Stern's secretive FOMO model; openly discussing unannounced games; not limiting Collector's Edition Harry Potter

    medium · Jersey Jack rep quote: 'we don't care that people know that Steve Ritchie is making Sonic the Hedgehog...We're so confident in Harry Potter...those days [of artificial scarcity] are over.'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: John Borg working solo on Star Wars rather than collaboratively with other Stern designers; Kaneda criticizes this as aging creative's arrogance rather than teamwork

    medium · 'It doesn't feel like, oh, you know, Keith Elwin's helping him. Jack Danger's helping him. They're all jumping on and giving ideas. No, it's like, this is mine.'

  • $

    market_signal: Stern's dominant market position weakening; competitors gaining relative strength through transparency, passion, and better value propositions

Topics

Stern Pinball's launch strategy and marketing approach for Star WarsprimaryGame quality and design expectations vs. reality for premium-priced machinesprimaryPricing sustainability and FOMO tactics in pinball marketprimaryCompetitive landscape: Stern vs. Jersey Jack, Spooky, Barrels of FunprimaryCommunity sentiment shift and buyer skepticism toward new releasesprimaryDesigner burnout and organizational culture at Stern (Jack Danger, Keith Elwin)secondarySpike 3 hardware platform as evolution not revolutionsecondaryPinball collecting as investment strategy and resale market collapsesecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.78)— Kaneda is highly critical of Stern's execution, corporate exhaustion, and pricing practices. However, he expresses genuine passion for pinball as a hobby and hope that games can be better. His personal frustration (aging, work pressure, AI threats) bleeds into his analysis. He acknowledges uncertainty about Star Wars prediction and hopes to be wrong. Final segment includes self-aware meta-commentary about covering both sides.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.086

all right i'm just gonna say it i think star wars is going to be a bust. And I'm going to explain why. I think I'm wrong. I don't think it's going to go to $18,000 for the LE of the game. I've been just thinking about the fact that this game is coming out in one week's time. Think about that for a minute. In one week, Stern Pinball is going to bring out the biggest IP in all of pinball. In one week, Stern is going to unveil to us their newest platform. In one week after we got the little teaser, this is the moment that this company is going to drop into the world a game it needs to be its biggest hit since Godzilla. And the expectations for Star Wars are bigger than anything they've come out with ever. And we've all been waiting for a great Star Wars machine forever. People who say they're fatigued by another Star Wars game have forgotten, there has only really been two Star Wars games in the, basically, the history of Stern Pinball. I don't count the Star Wars game at Costco as a game, neither do you. You don't know anyone who owns it, so it's just the Steve Ritchie game that was eight years ago, and the Mandalorian. And that's it. So I don't have Star Wars fatigue. Do you? and so they're going back to the well the original trilogy john borg you got ray de on code you got spike three the games a week away this is the biggest ip in all of pinball bigger than harry potter not as big as pokemon in terms of ip sales but it's bigger than pokemon in terms of this target audience's affinity for the theme and we're seven days away and nothing. No hype, no energy, no enthusiasm, nobody's speaking about how they can't wait for us to see the game, nothing. In fact, what we are hearing and what is trickling out from the Stern Factory is a lot of mediocrity. The game is okay is what I heard directly from someone who's over there. Okay. How does she look? She looks okay. Is the car fast? It's okay. You know, are you happy with like your house? It's okay. That is like the ultimate way to say something is mediocre. I'm not hearing stuff like, can't wait till you see this man. Kaneda, wait till you see what the ball is going to do when you go there. Or wait till you see this toy or this mech. Or wait till You hear this thing in all of our new Spike 3 glory. Nothing, nothing. Now, look, are they purposely sandbagging it because they want to blow us away? Or is the latter what I'm about to say? I think the truth that this company, even though it's Star Wars, even though it's like the biggest movie franchise of our childhoods, this company is just going to release it like it's another game. Nothing different. did they invite the Star Wars fan sites in early to see this game so they could start hyping it? No. When are the media going to see this game? And this tells me everything. When are you going to see it? After the game has already been revealed. They want you to book travel to go there next Wednesday. Why? You're not going to get any exclusive. The whole world is going to see this game beforehand. By the time you know what's in this game, your plane tickets will have been purchased. Your hotel rooms will have been paid for. You're not going to be able to like turn around and change your mind. You have to now schedule a trip to Stern Pinball, break up your work week because nobody's doing this for a living. And by the time you know what the game is, it's too late. There's nothing they're giving you. A media person wants to get in early and get their content created beforehand. So when they revealed the game on Monday or Tuesday, you have everything ready to go live. That's not going to be the case. So no, I'm not going out there. I'm not taking the free dinner, but I'm just not hearing anything from anyone over there that indicates to me anything other than the fact that they have everything asset-wise in it. Of course you've got everything asset-wise in it. You had it the last time you made the game. So none of that is surprising to me. What's really concerning to me is the lack of doing anything different. This to me speaks about one thing and one thing only. Stern Pinball has a formula. And no matter what the theme is, no matter what the climate is in the pinball community, no matter anything, like no other factors change what they do. They just always drop everything into the world the same exact way. And my thing with Stern and the way they're making games, and you can hear the way they talk about it. You can hear it in like the designers and now the rumors that like Keith Elwin's not happy. Jack Danger had to quit designing. Yeah. What? Why? Like what a red flag that is about what it's like to make games over there. And now look, he looks a little bit like a wounded tiger just making his, I love Jack's content. You know, I love his content, but man, it like destroyed him and you could see it. Like it really was taking over his life. So like the thing is this, it feels like a really big company that's incapable of adapting a little bit, of being more flexible, of reminding itself why they do this in the first place. And I understand, you know, I just listened to an interview with David David Van Es over at Gonzo Pinball. It's like an hour and a half interview, right? And it's just like, look, say what you will. Like, I've got issues with the Dune theme. I understand why they made it. You know, I understand that it's not everybody's cup of tea, but it was nice to hear the enthusiasm he has for making these games. Like, I don't think they're firing on all cylinders just yet. I think when they get a better theme and they understand the community a little bit more and you know they pay someone like Kaneda to come in there and give the company a little swagger and a jolt that it needs they going to be fine But at least you know I feel this like desire to get better and keep improving We feel that desire over at Spooky Pinball to keep improving. We're going to see that when we look at Dutch Pinball X's Raza. Keep improving. Keep making stuff better. Jersey Jack originally said every game is going to be better than Wizard of Oz. That wasn't always the case, but now they have improved the gameplay and the fun factor of Jersey Jack games. And the thing that's hard for Stern is they do make the most fun games in pinball. They're the most successful company for a reason. They're not at the top of the mountain because they made crappy game after crappy game. They're not at the top of the mountain because they picked bad themes. They're at the top of the mountain because they consistently deliver the greatest pinball fun in the history of pinball. There's a reason why on the top 100 list, most of those top games are Stern. Even though now like Dungeons and Dragons is number three and Dune is number two on that list. People kept sending me that. No one takes that list seriously when a new game enters the list. Because being new on that list, all it is is the early buyers of the game just trying to pump up the game. It doesn't mean they're going to sell more because someone off the street is going to see the top 10 list and be like, oh, Dune's really the second greatest pinball machine of all time. It's silly to have a game with like 57 reviews, number two in the world. I mean, I guess you could look at it more like the billboard, but then it should be like that. It should be more about the top games of 2025. But again, Billboard is not based on reviews of people who listen to the album. You enter the top Billboard list based on sales. And that is something that all of these pinball companies are afraid of. Releasing their actual sales numbers. They all hide it. All of them. Nobody is honest. The only ones we can actually figure out are the ones like Spooky who sell out. So if you're making 888 games and you're sold out, I could take a real easy guess how many games you sold. Okay, so Star Wars a week away. This big company that's been so successful, why does it feel like they are struggling to get us excited about Star Wars? Didn't they just hire a new chief marketing officer? He's now been over there for months. The first major release under his new tenure is Star Wars. What are we going to do? Let's just do what we've always done. We'll do the same launch as if it's Venom, as if it's John Wick. So I'm here to tell you right now, I'm going to make a complete 180 on this game. I haven't seen it, and I know this is not fair to the team that worked on it, but I think I'm reading the room. The silence is speaking volumes for me on this game. I think it's going to be just another Stern. I don't think it's going to be the next Godzilla. I don't think Borg with a two-flipper game is going to give you the next Godzilla. you're more likely going to get a game that's more like his data east game a more of a fan layout with some mechs i actually now believe the rumor that it's not going to be the big at at walker it's going to be the smaller at st walker which nobody ever talks about yeah it plays a role in return of the jedi but now i feel like it's going to be that and he's going to recycle the mech from avatar and it's just going to fall over when you kill it or, you know, knock it out of commission, which is what it does in the movie, but it's not going to be a wow. If you're a Star Wars fanatic and you're going to put a mech into the game, it's not going to be the A-T-S-T, which none of us long for. It's more the at-at is the iconic one. And so this is the thing. I think Stern Pinball is just in a place now where the machine got so big, the company got so big, the need to keep the line moving got so big. And clearly, I think we can say this with confidence, they got greedy. They did get greedy and they got cheap. They got really cheap. Once you started selling people $2,000 toppers. It was a middle finger to the community. And we haven't forgotten that. And while the really wealthy fanboys want to keep apologizing, I think many of us are tired of that. And not only that, so you got the $2,000 ripoff toppers, and then you charge the price of your game the highest it's ever been, and you don't even make them special. You're giving people $13,000 LEs that don't even come with an exclusive topper. They don't come with even artwork that makes the game look much better. And so what have you done to your community, Stern? You've absolutely treated the community over the last five years like anything you make will sell like hotcakes. And we talk about it. They legitimately built up this new company as if the demand for their product would be the way it was during COVID, it has been anything but that. And then the competition since that time period has continued to get better, be friendlier, more transparent, and give you more bang for the buck. Now, look, it's a hard balance to find. When Spooky Pinball is selling $450 shotgun shooter handles that cost a lot more than a real shotgun, you know, they're going to start getting some of those questions, the same that Stern does. Like, should it be this much? Sure, you can make the money, but are you getting a little greedy on this? And you start to see what success does. It starts to make you think like they love us, so we can get away with it. And that's what happened to Stern. And the problem is, is we don't love you that much, Stern. We don't love pinball that much. Most people out there who love pinball, I love pinball. Most of you love pinball. Why would you be here, right? Most of us who love pinball don love spending on three LEs that don look special We don love it enough to lose on those three LEs because you sold us a product that was marked up And listen to me when I say this these products coming from the factory are priced way higher than people value them at. That's not good. And you know, the argument or the car argument that, well, that's what happens with new cars. Yeah, those car companies would be out of business if they were in a category as small as pinball, because pinball is a very small category and does rely on collector confidence. If you destroy that, there's a reason why Stern, you know, for all the years, people forget this. The reason why they sold so many pros and premiums to distros and dealers is so those distros and dealers could secure their allotments of LEs. Now that means nothing. That has no value. And so I said on a previous show, only 770 Star Wars LEs, they're going to sell out instantly and they're going to go up to $18,000. What the hell was I smoking? Now, a week later, I don't feel the same way. I feel no hype. I feel no enthusiasm. John Borg's doing what? Streaming his old games? What's that about? How is that going to get me excited? Holding up a Jabba the Hutt figurine that looks like it cost five bucks, holding that up to a camera and telling me this is going to be just what hot glue gunned or screwed into my $13,000 game. It's not going to be a Jabba the Hutt that talks, that has any animation, that moves, that does anything. I could walk into a Walmart and I could go down a toy aisle and I could see toys that cost $30 that will have more movement and more magic than what I'm going to get inside a machine for $13,000. And the fatigue is real. The lack of passion, it just feels like it. They seem like an exhausted institution. And I mean that. An exhausted institution has a Star Wars game, has a new CMO, and does nothing. Now again, I could be 100% wrong right now. They could be purposely sandbagging it and just want to blow us away with Spike 3. But I don't think that's going to happen. Even in my conversations with them over there, like a year ago about Spike 3, you know it was more of like a new sort of like evolution not a revolution and so I think we've seen a lot of spike three already in recent games and believe me I've stood over the machine at jack bar that has the bigger screen in that Godzilla it's not gonna change much it's not as wow as like the jersey jack screen so you know that's all it is and then the cabinets don't have like the newer lighting system in it. It's a halfway Spike 3 introduction. No one's out there screaming, this is the next Godzilla. This is the next big hit. Stern is finally going to answer all of our Star Wars prayers. Nobody's talking like that. Nobody. And so, you know, maybe this is good news for everybody else making games. The giant is vulnerable more than it's ever been. And, you know, when I think about this hobby and why we're all here, it's like, I really want every game to be great. I do. I want every game to be amazing. I want every game to kind of connect with me. I want games to make us giddy. I want games to make us feel like little kids again. I think everybody wants that. I just don't think people are delivering much of that. I really don't. And I think some games get it right, but I think we've been gaslit. I think so much creativity has come out of these games, it is absolutely incredible to me what people consider to be a packed world under glass. Putting artwork down is not a world. That is a poster. A lot of the emptiness is hidden with artwork and plastic and shots, but there's not much to say, hey, I wonder how to get over there. I wonder what that does. I wonder like how, you know, I mean, again, like go look at some of these games that were loaded, truly loaded with really creative, physical things the ball interacts with. And then you look at certain new games and I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. And, you know, those games when they originally came out, I'm talking about the Williams now Originally came out were $2,500 games. You adjust that for inflation. Yeah, we're kind of around where we are now, right? And that's my point. Yeah, so for inflation, they might be around like $6,000 to $7,000 now for that game, even if it was $10,000. All right, cool. Put a $10,000 Twilight Zone, Star Trek The Next Generation, Theater of Magic, Toad Inn, put these games, Adam's Family, put them next to them with modern coding. put them next to what we have now and that's the point is all this stuff now is ten to fifteen thousand dollars and it's just one after another after another and it's just starting to feel like modern pinball has its work cut out for it and i feel like a lot of people are starting to feel if i'm gonna buy something and i'm gonna commit this much money i'm not gonna be an idiot now and just chase everything new in box because that's just a recipe for losing so much money. It's stupid, right? It's almost like you got a mark on your head that you're a dodo if you're buying every single new in box game that comes out. The new bar is these games really need to feel like they are the product and the outcome of a great idea executed with tremendous passion, so much so the company can't wait for you to see it and can't stop talking about it and I think the old world of pinball and I mean this the old world is you remain dead silent about what you're doing what you're working on you know I'm just gonna say this like I was talking to someone at Jersey Jack they're like we don't care that people know that Steve Ritchie is making Sonic the Hedgehog They said that to me We don care The rumors out there it true We so confident in Harry Potter We so confident in Steve next game We so confident in the game after that that we don need to rely on this old world model of absolute silence, FOMO on day one, try to get everybody to fight, claw over each other to get an LE. Those days are over. Jersey Jack's not even limiting Harry Potter CE and it's selling phenomenally well. Okay, Stern Pinball, it's like they think it's still like 2021. They really do. They're like stuck in 2021. And I'm just here to tell you right now, because of the silence, because this game is Star Wars and a week away and read the room, read the vibes. Silence is speaking volumes. They need to wake up. I'm gonna just say it I think the game is gonna be mediocre I don't think it's gonna blow us away now I'm just that and again I hope I'm wrong I hope a week from now I am like wow wow they did it like they finally made the Star Wars game we've been waiting for but man I don't know if it's just like coming off of like a long holiday weekend and having to go back to work has got me in a little bit of a, you know, a mood. You know, I, by live yesterday talked about how Brenda is a little, you know, she wants me to pull more weight. She's not wrong. It's, it's just sometimes like, it's easy to sort of, well, it's not easy, right? I mean, for those of you who have partners and wives and children, and I had children later in life, like it's not easy. I'm going to be 49 years old in three weeks. I might not look it. I might not always feel it, but I am and I'm tired, you know, and I'm not getting, I don't have the energy if I had little kids when I was in my 20s. So it's like on top of that, on top of that, just trying to keep this whole ship in the ocean, you know, and it's, it's not always easy because, you know, as you get to middle age in life, working for somebody, it's difficult. It's difficult. Like I literally am almost 50 and I still have homework every night. And it's difficult because it's not homework I always want to be doing. In fact, the older you get, it gets more difficult to keep turning in homework. And in my industry, imagine doing homework every night and the majority of it, because I'm creating ideas for clients, the majority of the thinking gets torn up in your face. They just don't execute much. Clients have become more risk adverse. AI is going to blow up my industry real soon. And I'm worried about the world. I am. I mean, look, as much as I'm not really that worried about Star Wars because the best, it's like a win-win for us. If the game is great, we get a great Star Wars game, that's a win. If the game is terrible, we save, you know, $7,000 to $13,000. That's a win. It really is. It is such a buyer's world now in pinball where everything's a win-win. Only go in on something if it's an amazing pin. You know, the things I'm really worried about in life is I worry that like society is just turning on all this social media, ruining the happiness of children, messing with kids' heads, like all the stuff going on there. And I'm just worried that we've just turned on AI that's going to blow up so many people's jobs that they need. And what it's going to end up doing is forcing society and culture to become socialists because everyone's going to need a government wage to survive if we blow up so many jobs with technology and is that what we need it's why do we need all of this like advancing towards what it's like the goal of humanity is not happiness anymore it's efficiencies and corporate profit and you know to bring it back to pinball kind of feel like that's more what's driving stern now than passion. Does it feel like the entire Stern organization came together to collaborate to make Star Wars the greatest Star Wars pinball machine of all time? No, it doesn't. It probably was more like, oh, John Borg lost Indiana Jones. We got to give him something. You know, we'll give him this. You know, it feels more like that. And if John's working on it, I don't know. It doesn't feel like, oh, you know, Keith Elwin's helping him. Jack Danger's helping him. They're all jumping on. And giving ideas. No, it's like, this is mine. Like, that's what it feels like. And I can say this as someone who's an older creative. As you get older, the hardest thing to do as a creative is actually realize you need more help now than ever. That if you just go off solo and you make Chinese democracy like Axl, it's not going to be nearly as good because you're going to think you did it all. You were the genius, like inspiration behind all the great songs. and then you realize it was more like you were young, you were hungry, you were broke and you had your friends around you and you all collaborated to make Appetite for Destruction. And I think that's the thing and that's why Jack Danger is more important to me than any of these older designers. You need young, new creative teams over in these pinball companies that are hungry to make a name for themselves and not, you know, the old guard that's really just making games because they've got a chip on their shoulder about all the internal politics that probably happen at a pinball company. Everybody, it's September 3rd. In five days, we will know if I was right or wrong. It's funny too. You notice how Kenyatta does this? Because now I've done two shows. Star Wars is going to be amazing. it's going to be worth $18,000. Star Wars is going to be terrible. There's a reason why they're not hyping it. They know it's not good. Okay, so now I've taken both sides. This is how you do it. Then you can't be wrong. You know, people call me bipolar. I don't know. Is this bipolar? No, I just think it's like you wake up some days, you just change your mind. I've changed my mind on Star Wars and it's because we're a week out and this company has nothing for us. Everybody, We're going to find out real soon. Kaneda out.

medium confidence · Kaneda references his own previous show prediction; now walking it back

  • Spike 3 is 'more of an evolution, not a revolution' with no major leap over existing hardware

    medium confidence · Kaneda references 'conversations with them over there, like a year ago' but provides no specific attribution

  • @ middle-late segment
  • “Silence is speaking volumes. They need to wake up.”

    Kaneda @ closing segment — Distills entire thesis into single phrase; becomes his rhetorical climax

  • “I think the game is gonna be mediocre. I don't think it's gonna blow us away. Now I'm just that. And again I hope I'm wrong.”

    Kaneda @ near end — Final prediction stated with caveat; acknowledges uncertainty

  • “This is how you do it. Then you can't be wrong. You know, people call me bipolar. I don't know. Is this bipolar? No, I just think it's like you wake up some days, you just change your mind.”

    Kaneda @ final segment — Meta-commentary: self-aware acknowledgment that he's covered both sides (amazing/terrible)

  • Spooky Pinball
    company
    David Van Nessperson
    Barrels of Funcompany
    Dutch Pinballcompany
    Steve Ritchieperson
    Dunegame
    Godzillagame
    Harry Pottergame
    Spike 3product
    Sonic the Hedgehoggame
    Venomgame
    John Wickgame
    Kanedaperson
    Jabba the Huttproduct
    AT-ATproduct
    AT-STproduct
    Avatargame

    medium · 'The giant is vulnerable more than it's ever been...the competition since that time period has continued to get better, be friendlier, more transparent, and give you more bang for the buck.'

  • $

    market_signal: Stern's decision to not grant pre-release media access, forcing journalists to book travel before seeing actual game content; contrasts with competitor transparency strategies

    high · Kaneda details how Stern is not inviting media early, media will only see game after reveal, forcing hotel/flight commitments before knowing what's in the game

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern characterized as 'exhausted institution'; formula-driven; unable to adapt; stuck in 2021 mentality; motivated by corporate profit over passion

    medium · 'They seem like an exhausted institution...It feels like a really big company that's incapable of adapting a little bit...It feels more like that [corporate profit] is what's driving Stern now than passion.'

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Jack Danger quit Stern design role; Keith Elwin unhappy at Stern; suggests organizational toxicity or creative frustration

    low · Kaneda states 'Jack Danger had to quit designing. Yeah. What? Why? Like what a red flag that is about what it's like to make games over there' and notes he 'looks a little bit like a wounded tiger'

  • $

    market_signal: Perceived overpricing of Star Wars LE ($13,000) without exclusive topper or special artwork; secondary market predictions shifting downward

    medium · Kaneda's reversal from $18k prediction to mediocre sales outlook; describes $13k as 'way higher than people value them at'

  • ?

    product_concern: Jabba the Hutt toy in Star Wars described as cheap, immobile, lacking magic; production value far below $13,000 price point expectations

    medium · 'Holding up a Jabba the Hutt figurine that looks like it cost five bucks...It's not going to be a Jabba the Hutt that talks, that has any animation, that moves...I could walk into a Walmart and see toys that cost $30 that will have more movement'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Complete reversal from previous episode predicting Star Wars LE would reach $18,000 to current prediction it will be mediocre; publicly metacommentary on having 'both sides covered'

    high · Kaneda directly states he previously predicted $18,000 secondary market pricing and now completely reverses that; explicitly acknowledges this pattern of taking both positions

  • ?

    technology_signal: Spike 3 hardware described as 'evolution not revolution'; screen not significantly better than Jersey Jack; no major 'wow' factor; described as 'halfway' introduction

    medium · 'Even in my conversations with them over there, like a year ago about Spike 3, you know it was more of like a new sort of like evolution, not a revolution...It's not going to change much. It's not as wow as like the Jersey Jack screen.'