Episode 1136: "Thoughts After Seeing More Star Wars Gameplay"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 23s·analyzed·Sep 15, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda: Star Wars code is great but mechs/art underwhelm; predicts location success, collector disappointment, and $3k LE depreciation.

Summary

Kaneda provides detailed critique of Star Wars: Fall of the Empire after viewing extensive gameplay, praising Ray Day's code implementation but expressing disappointment with mechanical design, artwork quality, and underutilization of Spike 3 capabilities. He predicts strong location and casual appeal but weak collector enthusiasm, forecasts secondary market depreciation, and shares insider information about upcoming Stern titles (Transformers, The Walking Dead, Pokémon) while criticizing broader industry pricing, market saturation, and lack of market research.

Key Claims

Ray Day's code implementation on Star Wars is very well-done and among the best aspects of the game
high confidence · Direct observation of gameplay footage and explicit praise for code quality
Star Wars LEs will depreciate $2,000-$3,000 within months, with Premiums losing similar amounts and Pros sliding toward $4,000
medium confidence · Pattern observation from recent Stern releases; Kaneda stating expected trend based on market behavior
Stern spent significant licensing money and is targeting mainstream YouTube audiences rather than enthusiast community (Pinside, dedicated pinball followers)
high confidence · Observation of Media Day attendees and YouTube influencer strategy
Transformers is coming as a Stern machine with Elliot Eisman as designer
medium confidence · Exclusive livestream announcement; Kaneda citing personal source but not naming it explicitly
The Walking Dead will likely appear at Expo in approximately one month
medium confidence · Speculation based on timeline and Stern's pattern; Kaneda expressing confidence but not citing official source
Jersey Jack sold more Collector's Edition Harry Potters than other trim levels, indicating strong high-margin sales strategy
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting information from JJP community/insider; not officially confirmed
Pokémon might be delayed due to licensing issues
low confidence · Speculation/rumor from unidentified source; explicitly framed as hearsay
Star Wars will still sell over 5,000 units despite collector apathy due to mass theme appeal
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on casual accessibility and marketing reach to non-enthusiasts
Pinball Brothers' Predator could put the company out of business
low confidence · Kaneda opinion on poor market fit; not substantiated by specific business data

Notable Quotes

“The more I look at it, the more I think about it, the more I watch footage of people playing it, it just isn't sort of wowing me.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00 — Core thesis of episode: despite code quality, overall game experience disappoints
“instead of focusing on a major, major mech, it feels like Stern sort of made a bunch of sort of B-level mechs to put into Star Wars”
Kaneda @ ~5:30 — Key criticism of mechanical design philosophy; signals lack of standout features
“Now that we're on Spike 3, it just didn't feel like a leap forward.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00 — Damning assessment of Spike 3 utilization; platform underdelivered on expected enhancement
“If I'm Stern, I got Star Wars, I spent all this money, I wanna let as many people as possible know that this game is now available for sale.”
Kaneda @ ~12:30 — Understanding of Stern's mass-market strategy despite skepticism about effectiveness
“I think the price tag and the product don't sync up. The LEs are kinda dead, and they need to really reevaluate all of this.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Direct critique of Stern's pricing model and LE viability; core market concern
“If you buy an LE for $13,000, I think your game is going to be worth $10,000 in just a few months.”
Kaneda @ ~14:30 — Specific depreciation prediction with financial implications for collectors
“Something I said exclusively on my livestream the other day is that Transformers is coming out. And it is going to be a Stern machine. And Elliot Eisman, who did John Wick, will be the designer of Transformers.”
Kaneda @ ~19:00 — Insider scoop on unannounced game; Kaneda positioning himself as information source
“I really think it should have been Tron. The new Tron movie is coming out. You've got a Tron pinball machine with like Daft Punk music and you've got a better sound system and better lighting.”

Entities

KanedapersonRay Day (Raymond Davidson)personMike Vinacoreperson John Borgperson Steve Ritchieperson Elliot Eismanperson Keith Elwinperson Jack Dangerperson

Signals

?
business_signal: Industry-wide market saturation and soft sales environment; inventory backing up as new releases outpace used game demand; pricing structure unsustainable
high · Multiple statements: 'The market right now, wow, it's oversaturated. Stuff not moving as fast as it used to. And it going to keep getting slower and slower', concern about concurrent releases straining consumer disposable income, observation that multiple major releases happening simultaneously
~
sentiment_shift: Enthusiast vs. casual player split in Star Wars appeal; game positioned as excellent for location/casual play but disappointing for dedicated hobbyists and collectors
high · Distinct statements: 'I think this is an operator's dream come true... for casual people. I think the diehards in us... this two-flipper eight-shot fan layout game, it's not really going to win you over and you're probably going to wait for the next game'
?
competitive_signal: Stern perceived as facing creative and strategic challenges; head-scratching about designer assignments; lack of excitement in pipeline; comparison to competitors like Spooky expected to defy soft market excuses
medium · Statement: 'When I hear the Stern lineup and I hear who is making what, I still just am head scratching a little bit. How unexcited does Stern Pinball sort of feel lately?... I think Spooky is going to defy some of the excuses other manufacturers have been making'
?
design_philosophy: Star Wars mechanical design characterized as 'B-level mechs' with no standout features; AT-AT described as small, Millennium Falcon doesn't move, Jabba pit underthemed, magnetic save only major wow factor
high · Extended critique of each mechanical element; comparison to GoldenEye showing mechanic reuse; statement 'instead of focusing on a major, major mech, it feels like Stern sort of made a bunch of sort of B-level mechs'

Topics

Star Wars: Fall of the Empire mechanical and design critiqueprimaryStern Pinball pricing model and LE viability crisisprimarySecondary market depreciation trends and collector sentimentprimarySpike 3 platform underutilization and technical capabilitiesprimaryUpcoming unreleased games and insider roadmap informationprimaryIndustry market saturation and soft sales environmentsecondaryManufacturer strategy: mass market YouTube vs. enthusiast communitysecondaryJersey Jack Harry Potter sales and trim strategysecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.62)— Kaneda is measured and not hostile, but fundamentally disappointed. Praises code, doesn't call for boycotts, but expresses 'just isn't wowing me' repeatedly. Critical of pricing, mechanical design, art, and platform utilization. Concerned about market dynamics and industry direction. Ends with some hope for better future titles and empowerment message.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.061

Oh, welcome everybody to Gennady's Pinball Podcast. I am just happy that last week is behind all of us. I mean it. I feel like it was a rough week for a lot of people. Tensions were running high. People were saying stupid stuff. A very sad week for the country. And you know, here we are. September 15th. Star Wars Pinball is out in the world. I've been watching a lot more gameplay content. I want to get a better sense of what this game is going to be like. And you know, the more I look at it, The more I do think this is a very, very well-coded game by Ray Day. He really did a great job. Mike Vinikour, Ray Day, watching them go through the Star Wars movies and pulling all the major moments that we want. I think everyone is really happy to see the way this game is going to be served up on a code level. Now, that being said, is code enough to move units of pinball machines at these prices? I think a lot of us still remember when these games were a lot more affordable. It was a lot different, right? A new game came out. It might not have been the best shooter. It might not have had the best mechs in all of pinball. But if like all of it connected and the software made it a lot of fun, you were willing to buy the game. But I think as we see this Star Wars game and I put up a few surveys and the results are what I expected. Stern Pinball is going to sell a lot of these games based on theme alone. And unlike the Steve Ritchie game, this game does a much better job serving back to you the iconic moments of the Star Wars universe. But there's something about this game. The more I look at it, the more I think about it, the more I watch footage of people playing it, it just isn't sort of wowing me. And I mean that like I just wanted something more. And the artwork is not that exciting. The mechanisms are not that exciting. There just feels like stuff is dropped in places that feels a little cheap. And I just want it more from Star Wars. But I also think that maybe, just maybe, because Star Wars expectations are so high that maybe it's just impossible to make an amazing Star Wars game. There's so much subject matter. There's so many vehicles and spaceships and moments. How do you bring it all to life in a way that's magical? So, you know, you got a tiny little at at. Is that magical? I don't know. It's kind of neat when it falls down, but it does feel really small. The Millennium Falcon doesn't move or really do anything. Jabba the Hutt. It's weird when he lights up. He's like kind of translucent. You can see through him the ball going into the Jabba pit, really kind of not a moment. There really isn't like a moment other than the really cool magnetic ball save. I love that. Like the ball is about to go straight down the middle or it's coming down from one of the outlanes and you can hit the force power and send it back into play. That's really cool. It's been done before. It's from Goldeneye. But other than that, there really isn't like a wow thing. And instead of focusing on a major, major mech, it feels like Stern sort of made a bunch of sort of B-level mechs to put into Star Wars. And that's the part that I think continues to sort of baffle people. I forgot to mention the Death Star that locks the balls. Again, stuff is in there, right? It's like the sum of the parts might be what they were going for, but nothing major. And maybe it's hard. You've got three movies. They all have different sequences. But even as I looked down at the game and I see the inserts and the lights. It still just looks like an old Stern. And this is the thing. Now that we're on Spike 3, it just didn't feel like a leap forward. One of the issues is now that they've got the bigger screen, unfortunately, they weren't allowed to put text over any footage from the Star Wars movies. And so even though they've got the bigger screen, it still feels like a smaller screen because they've had to serve up to us all of the movie clips in a smaller frame within the bigger screen. So what should have felt more like a quantum leap forward just feels like a marginal, a marginal difference when it comes to playing on the Spike 3 platform. And other than that, you know, I can't hear how much better the Spike 3 speakers are. I'm sure it sounds a lot better. The expression lighting and Stern use of LEDs in the game itself not that impressive We seen it before I also when I looked down at this game and this is just me being like what You couldn figure this out. You've got the lightsabers, the Darth Vader lightsaber and the Luke lightsaber clashing in the middle of that play field. And you're telling me that you couldn't have made those inserts? Like how cool would it have been when you start that mode of them battling that they turn on and they glow like a lightsaber? Nope. It's just static art. And the art is not horrendous. It's just not great. I think we all do appreciate that we're having a new artist on a Stern game. But as I look at the cabinets and I look at the art in general, it's just not wowing us. And we also learned from Retro Ralph's video that they couldn't use the foil decal on the LE because it made the snow look yellow. So what? Okay, sure. There was no solve for that. And that's just it. It's like, so now you're not even getting the full LE sort of wow factor because of something like that. So the more I see it, the more I think this is an operator's dream come true. I think this game is going to kill it on location I think it's going to be a lot of fun to walk up to and play it for casual people I think the diehards in us or those of us who have been following pinball for many years who love designs that have a little bit more creativity this two flipper eight shot fan layout game it's not really going to win you over and you're probably going to wait for the next game And so that is where I think Star Wars is going to land. I still think they're going to sell over 5,000 of these games. A lot of people out there, they don't follow Pinside. They don't follow Kaneda. And this is definitely a theme that sort of gets mass appeal and mass awareness. When you look at the Stern Media Day, look at all those media people. I don't recognize any of them. They really are going after like the YouTubers to let the world know about this game. I'm not saying that's a bad approach. I just don't know how effective it will be. Nobody releases their sales data, so I don't know. If I'm Stern, I got Star Wars, I spent all this money, I wanna let as many people as possible know that this game is now available for sale. As a pinhead, for you guys who follow pinball, I still think the biggest problem at Stern Pinball right now is that the price tag and the product don't sync up. The LEs are kinda dead, and they need to really reevaluate all of this. I just don't think there's any FOMO. I don't think there's any need to own this game right now. And I think it's going to go down the same path as most of these recent sterns. If you buy an LE for $13,000, I think your game is going to be worth $10,000 in just a few months. And I think you're also going to lose $2,000 to $3,000 on the premium. and that's just the way it's been going. And if Stern keeps making so many games every year, we're gonna start to see all these pro machines slide into the $4,000 range. Once again, play a machine, know you want it, know it's for you and then buy it. I am just giving you what I would do, I would just wait. I think for a lot of you out there though that are not great at pinball and you wanna put a machine in your home that a lot of people can enjoy in your family. If your neighbors come over, I don't know. This is gonna be like one of those easy to jump on, easy to figure out, easy to click with the theme kind of games. Not sold on the way it works where each ball is the different movie and it just plays the theme song and you watch the slow crawl of the movie storyline. I'm not sure if that's gonna get really old and feel very repetitive over time. Again, it's perfect for location. You jump on it. Cool. Owning it like that and hearing that over and over and over again, I don't know. Even though it's iconic, there's a reason why you only have to hear it once when you sit through a two-hour Star Wars movie. If you play two hours of Star Wars pinball, you're going to be hearing that like 100 times. And that's going to be, I don't know if that's going to work. So something interesting that someone picked up was John Borg was wearing like a Tron t-shirt from when Tron first came out. And people are starting to speculate if that's a teaser that Tron is next. I'm here to tell you right now, I don't think it's Tron. I think he's trolling us. It's going to be The Walking Dead. Something I said exclusively on my live or the other day is that Transformers is coming out. And it is going to be a Stern machine. and Elliot Elliot Eismin who did John Wick will be the designer of Transformers and I also heard that Pokemon might be delayed because of licensing issues And so we might see The Walking Dead at Expo And then after that, I think we might get Transformers in January, February. If not, it might still be Pokemon, which I'm hearing is Jack Danger's game. And then maybe it's like Fallout by Keith Elwin. All I know is this. When I hear the Stern lineup and I hear who is making what, I still just am head scratching a little bit. How unexcited does Stern Pinball sort of feel lately? They need something exciting. They need something as amazing as Godzilla. They need like something that showcases Spike 3. I really think it should have been Tron. The new Tron movie is coming out. You've got a Tron pinball machine with like Daft Punk music and you've got a better sound system and better lighting. What better game to dial up all that fiber optic insanity on the ramps in Tron? What better way to showcase Spike 3 than with Tron and give it an all new art package? They had such an opportunity there and I just don't think there's any energy around The Walking Dead. And what's crazy is we're going to see this game in like a month. In a month, I think they're going to bring it to Expo. I think they're going to unveil it there. They've been working on it for a while. And so Stern's got to really find their way now. So that's what's happening over at Stern. Over in Jersey Jack land, we're not hearing too much. People are getting their Harry Potters. The wait for Potter is going to be pretty long for a lot of people because they sold a lot of Harry Potters. I am hearing they sold the most amount in the collector's edition trim. So that was a smart move by JJP. When you think about it, 15 grand, like the margin on that version has to be incredible. And they've sold more of those than the other two editions of the game. I guess the old theory is if you have 10, you have 12. And if you have 12, you have 15. So congratulations to JJP on that title. It's kind of drama free. I know there's some like tweaks here and there people are doing, but for the most part, it is exciting from an asset standpoint to see both Star Wars and Harry Potter are giving everybody so many assets from those movies. Dune Pinball is giving people so many assets from Dune. The big question mark right now is Beetlejuice. Are we going to get all of the Beetlejuice movie? Are we going to get both movies? Are we going to select them like we do in Evil Dead? I know everybody needs movie one, right? It's like movie two, you could take it or leave it. I haven't really sat through the whole second movie yet. I need to watch it. And what's got people speculating a little bit is that Michael Keaton is not doing the call outs originally for the pinball machine. You know, not everybody wants to do this from the celebrity world, but it's absolutely going to have Michael Keaton and all of his lines from the movie because it's called Beetlejuice. They're not going to make Beetlejuice without Beetlejuice. He is Beetlejuice. So Spooky Pinball, we're now going to start to get to that period where they're going to start teasing this because this thing's going to be unveiled maybe end of November, early December, and it's going to come up real quick right now. There's always that slide into Expo and the slide into the fall and into the Q4 months, and it's going to happen and it's going to happen really quickly. Are we going to see any other surprises in the pinball world between now and the end of the year? I don't think we're going to see anything about Raza just yet. I think Dutch Pinball needs to keep the focus on everybody paying for their Alice's and getting their Alice machines. Pinball Brothers is going to continually tell us that there's just a few more Predators left and hurry up and get it before they're sold out. You know how I feel. I think this game could put the Pinball Brothers out of business. Pedretti Gaming will be revealing Big Bang Bar probably at Expo. Because if you don't hit Expo, there's really nothing else. If you want to get a game in front of people by the end of the year, going to be interesting to see what the response to that game is, how many they say they're going to make, and what they charge for the Big Bang Bar remake. So that is also going to happen. cgc is finally getting out all those merlin editions of medieval madness so for some of you out there you've been waiting a while but now you got to write that check and you got to write a check for that game you probably are going to be buying beetlejuice did you order star wars it's just a lot of money right when these things hit at once there's only so much disposable income people want to throw at pinball and also just like a lot of people are out of room and when you out of room you going to have to sell some stuff And we know that the market right now wow it oversaturated Stuff not moving as fast as it used to And it going to keep getting slower and slower to move these used titles as more and more new titles come out into the world. So I don't think there's going to be any surprises. I am starting to think and wonder, you know, when we might see Steve Ritchie's next game. I don't think it's going to be until the end of next year. Same with Back to the Future. I don't think we see it. Earliest October of 2026. The things that I'm curious about is what's going to be next from Chicago Gaming Company after this run of Medieval Madness. Will it be Twilight Zone or will it be the much rumored Mark Ritchie's version of Halo? And we know that Play Mechanics and Raw Thrills has the Halo license. Not sure people want that. Can you imagine next year if two titles that come out are Fallout and Halo? Like we're really bringing video game properties to pinball as a way to excite us. I don't know because next year we're all going to be playing something called Grand Theft Auto and at most it's going to cost like 80 bucks. So I'm not really sure I'm going to want to spend 13 or 10 grand on a fallout. Definitely don't want to spend that on a halo. And again, I think market research is everything. I keep suggesting that these companies do more of it. They don't really seem to be doing any of it. And that's just a big risk. You know, you could have easily surveyed people. Would you buy a predator pinball machine if Arnold wasn't in it? And then you'd get back like 99% of people? No, I wouldn't. So then you move in another direction. Would you buy The Last Starfighter if we had all the movie assets? Would you buy Goonies? Would you buy Karate Kid? Why not secure the license, right? So you have the license, secure it, and then do the survey. Because if the survey results come back and they're not to your liking, then you could always let go of the license. Isn't that how it works? They can't force you to make the game. So I don't know. I'm just waiting to see what happens here because it's going to become really, really competitive as we get into 2026. And I think Spooky is going to defy some of the excuses other manufacturers have been making about it being a soft market and this and that. I think in the end, like I say, it's never a bad time to release a great game and it's always a bad time to release a game people don't want. So I think I speak for all of us when we just kind of look at Star Wars like it's okay. It feels a little mediocre. It's not wowing us, but it's not upsetting me. Like I'm not angry about Star Wars. I see people saying like boycott Stern, boycott Stern. I'm like, no, no, no, no, no. We don't have to boycott Stern. We should be giving Stern feedback. And ultimately, I do think speak with your wallet. If you don't buy this game, they're going to know that they have to make things better. We have the ultimate power as consumers. The more we hold our money in our wallets until we truly see something that deserves this much money, the better for us. And you're watching it right now. All of the people that have been running at new inbox games lately, they've been taking a bath. And now you can march in and go get some of those games. I mean, you could go get like a Godfather CE now for like $8,000 off sticker. $8,000 off. I don't understand. I mean, I don't understand now how three pinball machines cost more than most people's automobiles. It's getting kind of nuts. You know, I'm just going to say this and I'm going to end with this song. I think Demon Hunters would actually be a good IP for one of these boutique companies to pick up and just put the whole thing in. Now, the problem is they probably can't afford it. But Demon Hunters right now has a lot of excitement. I know most of you are like, what are you talking about, Kaneda? Just trust me. Trust me. I'm glad that when you look at the top 50 music in America right now, it's just like good vibe music is back. All the mumble rap is gone. The music that's popping now sounds like it comes from the 80s and 90s. It's like Demon Hunter and Sabrina Carpenter. Her new album is amazing. And trust me, Machine Gun Kelly lost Americana. Everybody, happy Monday. Kanade out. Thank you.