Episode 1192: "Rumors I'm Hearing & Why Transformers LE Buyers Will Get Burned"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·26m 21s·held·Feb 25, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.045

TL;DR

Kaneda maps 2026 pinball pipeline across all manufacturers and warns collector pricing bubble will collapse.

Summary

Kaneda surveys 2026 pinball rumors across all manufacturers, predicting Stern will release Transformers, Fallout, and a Brian Eddy original IP (likely Attack from Mars 2); Jersey Jack will deliver Sonic the Hedgehog and games from Mark Seiden and Eric Meunier (possibly Warner Bros properties); Spooky will release Goonies and Gremlins; and smaller manufacturers face viability challenges. He argues the $15,000+ collector market is unsustainable and warns Transformers (LE) buyers will face significant losses due to poor premium/LE differentiation, contrasting with Pokémon's success.

Key Claims

Brian Eddy's next game is an original IP, possibly Attack from Mars 2 or a Dracula-themed game inspired by Monster Bash
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing Stern rumors; acknowledges uncertainty but cites Jason Knapp as source for Attack from Mars 2 rumor
Mark Seiden's next Jersey Jack game will likely be a Warner Bros property (Superman or Batman 89) due to JJP's tight relationship with Warner Bros
medium confidence · Kaneda's speculation based on JJP's licensing history with Willy Wonka, Wizard of Oz, and Harry Potter
American Pinball's first remake will be a 1990s game by a designer 'who now drives a bus with a bright light'
medium confidence · Kaneda's cryptic reference; cites Kale Hernandez at Electric Bat Arcade as source; indicates it's not a solid-state Bally classic like Centaur or Fathom
Multimorphic's business model is in trouble because P3 kit costs now approach Stern Pro pricing, eliminating cost advantage
high confidence · Kaneda's direct assessment of company viability
Turner Pinball will release Yukon Yeti (Whitewater 2) this year, needing only 350-500 unit sales to succeed
medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'heavy, heavy, heavy rumor' about Chris Turner's project
Back to the Future at Dutch Pinball will be based on all three movies with two variations, targeting 750 games/year production
medium confidence · Kaneda stating 'here's what I know' but also distinguishing rumors; mentions more physical ball locks in development
Transformers LE buyers will lose thousands of dollars due to poor premium/LE differentiation, unlike Pokémon where LE looks significantly better
high confidence · Kaneda's direct warning about Stern reverting to old model of 1,000 LEs with minimal premium differentiation; cites Zombie Yeti involvement
Pinball collector market cannot sustain $15,000+ pricing; $15,000 is a ceiling that games will 'crash into'
high confidence · Kaneda's explicit statement about market sustainability; contrasts with FOMO-driven peaks

Notable Quotes

“I just don't think they can move a volume of a game like Attack from Mars 2 or Medieval Madness 2. I just don't think it's going to work.”
Kaneda @ ~08:45 — Core skepticism about Stern's ability to market original IP in era dominated by major licensed franchises
“If you only have to sell like 350 to 500, maybe, but not going to be a high volume game. Not sure he needs the money so he can do whatever he wants and he's making pinball and I'm just making a podcast.”
Kaneda @ ~23:30 — Dismissive assessment of Turner Pinball's commercial viability despite acknowledging Chris Turner's financial independence
“I guarantee you right now, you're going to lose thousands of dollars on that Transformers LE... The LE looks so much better than the premium. And I think Stern's going to go back to their old model, a thousand LEs, and they're going to make them all look way too similar.”
Kaneda @ ~1:01:30 — Direct prediction of Transformers LE market failure; cites Zombie Yeti's design choices as reason
“This hobby cannot thrive on a collector level if the prices are $15,000 or more... there's no way these items will consistently be worth that”
Kaneda @ ~57:45 — Foundational market sustainability argument; challenges fundamental viability of current pricing strategy
“Once all 750 are made and you've got like 50 dudes that all think they can get $25,000 and they don't really want Pokemon, they're gonna try to like get the games listed immediately and that's just gonna drive the prices down.”
Kaneda @ ~59:30 — Market saturation prediction; explains mechanics of collector price collapse during fulfillment phase
“We need some simple, approachable games based on mass, mass themes that everybody loves... this is bringing balance to pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~1:05:15 — Defense of Pokémon's accessibility-focused design against 'curmudgeon' criticism of new players
“This company is just in a really good position. I think they're going to go after what people really want. I don't think they're ever going to make a theme misstep again. I really don't.”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyChicago Gaming Companycompany Multimorphiccompany Turner Pinballcompany American Pinballcompany

Signals

?
business_signal: Pinball Brothers' commercial failure with Predator (~300 units sold) indicates company viability crisis; manufacturing inefficiency suggests inability to pivot quickly
high · Kaneda: 'All the work to only sell 300 games, which they could barely sell. That's not how you survive in pinball.'
~
sentiment_shift: Shift toward accessibility-focused games (Pokémon) welcomed by Kaneda as bringing new players; traditional 'curmudgeons' resisting simplification philosophy
high · Kaneda's extended defense of accessible design: 'If we kept making games that were as hard as Jurassic Park... it wouldn't invite more people into pinball'
?
product_concern: Karl DeAngelo/Barrels of Fun may be overconfident following Winchester success; rumored Neverending Story next game represents potential market misstep
medium · Kaneda: 'I think Winchester was a little bit of a fluke... I think he's going to take two steps back if it's the never ending story'
?
product_concern: Multimorphic business model deteriorating as P3 kit costs now compete with Stern Pro pricing, eliminating core cost advantage
high · Kaneda directly states: 'The whole business model was it was more cost effective to buy a Multimorphic. And now if you're talking about the full price of almost a Stern Pro to put in a portal kit, how does that make any sense financially?'
?
design_philosophy: Zombie Yeti making Transformers LE/Premium variants too similar in appearance, ensuring LE will not hold value premium over Pro
high · Kaneda's direct prediction: 'Zombie Yeti makes the premium look exactly the same as the LE, I guarantee you right now, you're going to lose thousands of dollars on that Transformers LE'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.079

0:00

Can you love me faster than the devil? Run me straight into the ground Drowning deep inside your water Drowning deep inside your sound Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast We're going to change it up on this episode We've been talking a lot about Pokemon I'm going to talk about it at the end of this episode, but let's flip it a little bit. I think everyone's sick of hearing about how much money is a Pokemon LE going to be worth? Are Beetlejuice's worth this much? All we're talking about is the price of these games. Nobody's talking about pinball. So let's talk about pinball. Let's talk about all the rumors we know right now, because there's a lot that's going to happen in 2026, but I haven't really gone around the horn and said what the rumors are with each of these companies, because there's some stuff that we haven't even really discussed in a while. Let's start with Stern Pinball. What are the rumors over at Stern? So, Transformers G1 by Elliot Eisman, and then we are supposed to get Fallout by Keith Elwin. Whether or not it's the movie or sorry, the TV show or the video game is really the big question. If you were to ask me, I think Stern's going to do the TV show. I mean, it's the biggest TV show, one of the biggest ones Amazon's ever had. And you got all those assets. It's not over, though. And that's one of the things that's difficult. So maybe they will do the video game because do you want them to sort of jump into that storyline and not finish it a la Stranger Things. And then after that, the only other title that we've been sort of circling around is a remastering of ACDC or KISS. From there, think about it, from there, it's a little bit of a mystery. So here's what I am hearing is going to happen after that. We are going to get a new game from Brian Eddy. The rumor is this, that Brian Eddy's next game is an original IP game. It is not going to be licensed on a movie or a TV show or a musical act. It's going to be an original game. So what are the rumors around that? Is it going to be a sequel to something like Medieval Madness? The strong rumor, and I think Jason Knapp talked about this, it might be a sequel to Attack from Mars. Now, history has shown in this world of huge IPs now inundating us in pinball and infiltrating our minds. How are you going to find sales success with an original IP game if you're Stern Pinball? I just don't think they can move a volume of a game like Attack from Mars 2 or Medieval Madness 2. I just don't think it's going to work. I don't even think Stern can like make a Bally Williams-like game to really pay homage to a game like Medieval Madness. And they've tried this before. They made Black Knight, right? Sword of Revenge or Rape. I don't even remember the full title of that game. Was it Black Knight? sort of rage. And look how that game did. So I think this is a huge, huge gamble if Stern Pinball is allowing Brian Eddy to make something along those lines. The other rumor, it might be something like Dracula and they might sort of get inspired by the monster themes of Monster Bash. But that's a George Gomez property. So not sure. But after that, let's think about Stern for a minute. after all of that there is absolutely nothing in the rumor mill like what's the next game from Jack Danger will he be doing another game what's the next game from Keith Elwin after Fallout we know Elwin is prolific he can do two games a year what is the next game from John Borg so 2026 I feel like we know what's going to happen at Stern but 2027 is very much a mystery. So moving on from Stern Pinball, what are the rumors over at Jersey Jack? Well, it's not a rumor. It's basically confirmed. I know this is happening. It is Sonic the Hedgehog from Steve Ritchie. And then after that, we're going to get a new game from Mark Seiden. He's up next, then Eric Minier. So what are the rumors around Mark Seiden's game? You know, even as I was thinking about it, I was drawing a little bit of a blank. I don't think it's going to be a music pin. I don't think they're going to give that to Mark. I think they want Mark to make something different. Now, the only guess I can make, and I don't know, this is just a guess, because Jersey Jack has such a great relationship with Warner Brothers, you got to remember, Warner Brothers, Willy Wonka, Warner Brothers, I believe Wizard of Oz, Warner Brothers, Harry Potter. I think that is where the relationship is tight. So I think these guys are going to dip into the Warner Brothers pool. And if I were a betting man, I think we're going to see on Jersey Jack Pinball's platform. I think it's going to be Superman, maybe the new movie, maybe the old movie, or it's going to be Batman. And maybe it's like Batman 89. That would be super smart to go grab that. And what else could it possibly be? Maybe Barbie. You know, I think Barbie would sell. But I think Mark Seiden and especially Eric Minier, I think if we want to see what's going to come from Jersey Jack, I think looking at Warner Brothers, I would love for these guys to make Super Mario Brothers. But I feel like I don't know who's got the relationship with Nintendo. Right. But we'll see. But I do love the fact and I can tell you right now, it's not going to be Matrix. It's not going to be Top Gun. And Sonic the Hedgehog is going to crush, ladies and gentlemen. I can't wait for that game to come out. All right. After Jersey Jack, let go to Spooky real quick I feel like we all know the next Spooky Few It going to be Goonies And then I think it Gremlins And that going to be the next two years Whether they make something in between like that Motorhead game just a small run I don't think that's going to happen. They don't need to do any small run games. They're doing just fine with those titles. In the spooky rumor mill is always stuff like Futurama. We know Ben Heck wants to make that game. This company is just in a really good position. I think they're going to go after what people really want. I don't think they're ever going to make a theme misstep again. I really don't. Now, the one question I do have with Spooky, are they going to go back to a campy horror film again, like A Nightmare on Elm Street and a Friday the 13th? I think they will. And I think that game would do so damn well. Evil Dead is like a C-level within the horror genre. And so if they go get something like Jason or Freddy Krueger, I think people are going to line up to get that kind of game. All right, Spooky Pinball, future looking really bright. Let's go over next to CGC. So this company, again, making more medieval madnesses, nobody really cares. And the Play Mechanics partnership with Mark Ritchie seems to indicate that Raw Thrills, Play Mechanics, the game that they wanted to bring to market, I feel like it's heavily delayed. Nobody cares about it in the pinball world right now, is Halo. Other than Halo, we really haven't heard anything else from this company. I also know that CGC is heavily rumored to be bringing back Twilight Zone sometime in the next year or two. So how about them apples? We've known about these rumors, but the way to get these games from CGC, I feel like, has made most consumers very bored and apathetic towards that company. I think out of all the pinball companies, they have done the worst job of community relations between the community and the customers and CGC. That is why I don't like talking about them that much. It's just like, do they even care what they are doing? And how come there's not a public face of this company that's more integrated into the community? So that's CGC. Disappointing when you think about it. This company was making the most high quality remakes and doing such awesome work. And then they just have the worst production timelines. And they would reveal games like a year and a half before people would even get them. And when you burn people like that, they're not going to keep coming back. All you got to do is look at Pulp Fiction. Why? Why did you reveal it like 18 months before people got the game? All right, after CGC, who do we got in the world of pinball? Multimorphic. Let's go over to Jerry P3 Multimorphic. What are the rumors? I don't even know. I really don't know what is after Portal. I know that they're still working on stuff. I know that Portals are still trickling out, but I have absolutely zero. I hear zero rumors about what is happening over there. I think as a business model, this company's in trouble. Now that the kits cost as much as a Stern Pro, I don't know how you survive like that. Like the whole business model was it was more cost effective to buy a Multimorphic. And now if you're talking about the full price of almost a Stern Pro to put in a portal kit, how does that make any sense financially? So Multimorphic P3, we don't know. Let's go to Turner Pinball. The rumor at Turner Pinball is that Chris Turner, who bought all the stuff from Deep Root during the Robert Mueller's sort of like bankruptcy auction, he owns a lot of the stuff there. He sold some of it to Melvin Williams. Chris Turner, for some reason, because he was involved with Deep Root, is intimately connected to some of the projects over there. And the heavy, heavy, heavy rumor is that Chris Turner is going to come out this year with the sequel to Whitewater.

10:41

Whitewater 2. I say what are all weird. I know it. It's called the Yukon Yeti, I believe was the name of the game. Dennis Nordman game. I would love to give Chris Turner one piece of advice. I love the way his game looks. I love the way it's clean underneath. I don't like the way the glass is framed in his cabinet. Chris, I think if you just go to more of a normal cabinet, I think you'll have a lot more success. Games need to look good in a lineup. And when you look weird like that with a thick frame, I get that it has advantages, but aesthetically it just doesn't work. Okay. All right. Chris Turner, Yukon Yeti, Whitewater 2. I don't know, man. I don't know. If you only have to sell like 350 to 500, maybe, but not going to be a high volume game. Not sure he needs the money so he can do whatever he wants and he's making pinball and I'm just making a podcast. So after Chris Turner's Whitewater 2, what do we got happening in the pinball world? Okay, so who we got left? We've got American Pinball is returning to the pinball space. They've hired Melvin Williams. They've got other people they're hiring. I owe these gentlemen a phone call. And they've already announced that they are making Bally Classics. And that led to a lot of speculation of what they meant by that. But what I can tell you right now is that was a smokescreen. That was a diverter. And I heard from my friend Kale Hernandez over at Electric Bat that this is not going to be one of those like solid state games like a Centaur or a Fathom. It is, in fact, going to be a 1990s game. It is, in fact, going to be a game that you know the designer very well because he now drives a bus and it's got a bright light in it. I'm going to make you guys guess it, but that is going to be what the first remake is from American Pinball. After that, what's next from American Pinball is sort of a little bit up in the air. We know that Roz is not coming back right away. And I also know that this company wants to develop a licensed IP game. We've always heard He-Man associated with American Pinball. There must have been a point where they had the license, some sort of the He-Man license. The He-Man movie is coming back this year, so it's going to be a summer blockbuster. Not sure it's going to be a Blockbuster but it coming back this summer But that title has been floating around Franchi did an art package for David Fix for the game and it went nowhere So it's hard to know whether or not they retained any of these sort of rumored themes the company had. But I really hope American Pinball does not turn into a company that's looking backward. I think they need to look forward. I think they need to go get a big theme, do it justice. and if you do it right, you're going to have success. I mean, it's the only way to survive in this pinball space today where there's so much good stuff coming out. All right, what is happening over at Dutch Pinball? Well, they're going to finish the Alice builds and then we're going to get back to the future. Here's what I know. It is based on all three movies. I'm not sure if they're going to do the 88 SLE thing now. I think there are going to be two variations of the game. Their aim is to make 750 games a year. The rumor I am hearing is that they've now put a lot more into the game. There's more physical stuff happening in the game. There's a super interesting physical ball lock in the game. What do you think it's going to be? Are you going to lock balls in the DeLorean? Are you going to lock balls in a flux capacitor? I don't know. What I've heard too is they don't have the rights, much like they don't have the rights to Kalua. They didn't go out and get the rights for Pepsi Perfect. They don't have the rights for the Nike sneakers. Now, look, a lot of these things are going to be add-ons for people. But, man, that would have been an awesome moment in the pinball game where the Pepsi Perfect comes up from underneath the counter. It would have been an awesome moment, you know, where the Nike shoes lace up when you get on the hoverboard. I just feel like they should be getting some of this stuff. And I don't know who's brokering these deals, but I'm going to try. I mean, I work for like Mattel, so maybe I'll see if I can do some magic and get them some permission to use like the hoverboard and stuff like that. Because I also think that would have been amazing. Imagine if you made a hoverboard in Back to the Future Pinball that had a magnet in it and it actually like hovered over the other magnet. Like you could easily make that a pinball moment of magic. We also know that Franchi is on the artwork and that's it. Like there's no more rumors at Dutch Pinball. It is back to the future, hopefully by the end of this year. They've got new investors. We wish them luck. You know I want this title to be great. All right, so who else we got? We got like the whole European scene, Pedretti and Pinball Brothers. The rumor is that Pedretti Gaming has Big Bang Bar. I know they have it because I've seen it. I don't know anymore like what the climate is for stuff like bringing back these older games. I just don't think they are gonna have great success. And if the quality is not there, who knows? What's next from the pinball brothers? Predator was a huge fail here. All the work to only sell 300 games, which they could barely sell. That's not how you survive in pinball. And so this company is probably going to have to announce its next game this year. If they don't, then nothing is on the line. And this is what makes me nervous about these companies that have such like weird manufacturing schedules. How do you turn everything off if you're only going to make 300 games? Then what did you do? You were not expecting to sell so few. Your next game in development can't be ready to go. It just doesn't work. And with companies like Jersey Jack and Spooky and Stern, you know, operating the way they're operating, there's no room. You don't even need any of these other things because when G1 Transformers comes out, you You know, are you really going to be sitting around waiting for the sequel to Whitewater or waiting for like Pinball Brothers next game? You got to hit it out of the park or you're going to fail. I almost forgot. How did I forget my friends over at Barrels of Fun? So this company, when we talk about rumors, I mean, there's some real juicy rumors happening with barrels. Rumors that they hired the homebrew guy who made Big Trouble in Little China. Take my money now, David, if you make Big Trouble in Little China. Rumor that Neverending Story is next. that is going to be a questionable one. I think that could be one where David took a step forward with Winchester. And I think he's going to take two steps back if it's the never ending story. It's just not cool. It's just not cool enough for this demographic. I mean it. It's just going to like go over like labyrinth and not even as well as labyrinth. So I don't know. That's the big rumor. And then after that, I don't know why people keep saying Rocky. I don't think it's going to be Rocky. I don't think there is a chance these guys are getting. Sylvester Stallone. I think the rumors that make sense for barrels and you got to look at Brian Savage's background. It's GI Joe. It's stuff like that. Maybe it's he man. I think they're going to go into that direction and find a lot of success. My worry with barrels is simply this is that David is like 50 50. I think he second guesses himself and I think he needs to give the pinball community what they want versus what he wants to make. And I'm a little bit nervous. I think Winchester was a little bit of a fluke. I think he's going to take the success of Winchester as an indication that his judgment is spot on. But man, I think the reason it worked is because it was so unique and weird and quirky, but also just like a haunted house. That's different than never ending story. that is different than some other quirky stuff that people can't connect with. All right, I just wanna end this podcast by saying the following. This hobby is in a new golden period and I love it. And I see a lot of people getting focused on so much of like the prices. And I understand, like it's really fun to speculate on the pinball market. I love talking about it. It's one of the most fun aspects of this hobby, but I just wanna make a very clear, bold, simple statement. the pinball collecting community those of you who want to buy stuff that you hope holds value that is a great game that is worth collecting there is no way the pinball buying community will be able to sustain itself and i mean it's on the collector level and when i say collector games i mean stuff like the boutique games like winchester games like beetlejuice games like pokemon elite like stuff where there a thousand of these or less I don care if there a premium Premiums and pros are never holding value The problem with this hobby is simply this, and history has shown us this. It doesn't matter how big the IP is. It doesn't matter how great the game is. This hobby cannot thrive on a collector level if the prices are $15,000 or more. stuff does not move you might find a few big whales out there to buy metallica remastered for 18 or some people to buy pokemon le for 25 it's not going to survive at that there's no way these items will consistently be worth that and i go and i look at all these pirates of the caribbeans that are still priced at the covet prices and it's delusion they're not moving stuff will not move frequently if it is priced too high. I do think $15,000 is a little bit of a ceiling that everything will either crash into eventually. And I mean, like, if you've got a pinball machine that you spent 13,000 on and you played it for like a year or two and it's still worth 15,000, consider yourself very lucky. Now, some of them might go up here and there, but I just don't see anything. I mean this Pokemon or like Pirates of the Caribbean or Beetlejuice or Goonies. It doesn't matter what it is because there's so much coming out. I just don't think games can consistently stay at a high price. I think they hit those prices immediately when FOMO and fear is at its peak and people are panicking. And also none of the games have been made yet. When I see my Winchester friends being like, this is going to be a $25,000 game. No, it's not. Once all of these games are made and we can see it right now with Beetlejuice, it's like the moment they start being made. Why is it so many people are bailing and trying to make a profit? I don't like that either. Like, I think, look, it's healthy to have some secondhand market, but we can't have too many people speculating on everything and trying to get in and out. Because if you do that and we've seen that, you're going to lose. You're ultimately going to lose. You are going to lose your money because let's look at Pokemon as an example. Right now, it's really hard to find one and officially get one. And people are not going to give a check for $25,000 to a strange man without any contract or really secure feeling that they're going to get the game. Once all 750 are made and you've got like 50 dudes that all think they can get $25,000 and they don't really want Pokemon, they're gonna try to like get the games listed immediately and that's just gonna drive the prices down. And if the rumors about the part shortage are true, we're gonna see more and more delays on these games coming out. And I think people are gonna get back to the only place that's really healthy to be in this hobby, which is just buy games you love, buy games you wanna unbox and buy games you want to play. Yes, there was money to be made on Pokemon Ali if you wanted to speculate. If you got in and you made money, good for you. I'm not mad at you. I'm not going to gatekeep you like Troy's trying to do and Robin. I'm not going to do that. You made some money, good. But I guarantee you, if you try to do that on Beetlejuice now, you're not going to make much. You're going to have a lot more fun playing that Beetlejuice than you are making $2,000 to $3,000. I can tell you as someone who opens up my credit card bill every month, which I pay in full, I have no debt except for my mortgage, $2,000 to $3,000 means nothing. The enjoyment that pinball will bring you, the fun you will have on these games is worth way more than just $2,000 to $3,000. And that's the thing. It's like this hobby still needs to be bent on entertainment and fun. and that is the part about Pokemon I think a lot of these old curmudgeons don't get. The reason why this game is being so beloved is it looks like so much fun and yeah, it's a basic layout, but so what? It's just a classic layout. It's like a fan layout and it just works. So I think that's gonna invite more people into pinball and when I see some of these curmudgeons upset about all the new people coming into the hobby because they feel entitled to it and they want to indict people that don't appreciate complex layouts and rule sets. Let me tell you, if we kept making games that were as hard as Jurassic Park, that had code like Godzilla that you can never see the end of it, it wouldn't invite more people into pinball. It wouldn't. So this is good. This is good. This is bringing balance to pinball. We need some simple, approachable games based on mass, mass themes that everybody loves. If they bring out Super Mario Brothers Pinball, I don't want it to be like frustrating to shoot. I just want it to be fun to play. So everybody remember that, right? We're going to get into the hype trains like Pokemon when they arrive at the station. Most games are not going to be like this. If you're just running to get on the Transformer list and they make a thousand Transformer LEs at 13,000 and Zombie Yeti makes the premium look exactly the same as the LE, I guarantee you right now, you're going to lose thousands of dollars on that Transformers LE. You have to understand the variables of Pokemon are different. The LE looks so much better than the premium. And I think Stern's going to go back to their old model, a thousand LEs, and they're going to make them all look way too similar. Let's see if they learn their lesson. I don't think they are going to. I think Pokemon is an anomaly. Everybody, Kaneda out.