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Episode 1017: "Are We Waiting For The Next Godzilla?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 27s·analyzed·Oct 29, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Pinball market oversaturation concerns amid Avatar delays and waiting for next blockbuster like Godzilla.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the current state of the pinball market, criticizing slow launches (Avatar CE delays, Pulp Fiction's prolonged production), praising Chris Turner's measured approach with Ninja Eclipse (100 units sold), and expressing concern about market oversaturation. He speculates on 2025 releases (Dungeons & Dragons, King Kong, potential Tron remaster, Fallout rumor), praises Spooky's transparency and upcoming Evil Dead machine, and worries the industry needs to slow down production and pricing to avoid burnout.

Key Claims

  • Chris Turner's Spooky Pinball sold 100 Ninja Eclipse machines and has orders for 100 more

    high confidence · Kaneda, opening segment praising Turner's business approach

  • Avatar CE playfields were not ready at Expo and may still be at drawing board

    medium confidence · Kaneda's observation that beta playfields weren't in working order at Expo; indicates potential November release delays

  • Jersey Jack spent $100,000 on Avatar launch video but hasn't done official streams of new code

    medium confidence · Kaneda's critique of JJP's marketing strategy post-launch

  • Pulp Fiction has been in production for over two years with topper still not complete

    high confidence · Kaneda reading recent news about CGC finally getting a part for the topper

  • Stern's X-Men LEs have not sold out, indicating community has 'moved on'

    medium confidence · Kaneda's observation of slower LE sales compared to past releases

  • Fallout is rumored to be in development at Stern but likely a 2026 title, not 2025

    low confidence · Kaneda stating 'I heard that it's Fallout' but acknowledging uncertainty and classifying as rumor

  • Spooky's next game after Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Looney Tunes is Evil Dead (Evil Dead 1 and 2, with Bruce Campbell call-outs)

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'As you know, and I know, and Jason Knapp knows, we've known for the longest time, it is gonna be based on the Evil Dead'

  • Only 400 original Tron LE machines were made, creating question about remaster production numbers

    high confidence · Kaneda discussing potential Tron remaster and original production run size

  • Industry released 18 new pinball games in the past year and is on pace for unsustainable production

    medium confidence · Kaneda expressing concern about 18 new games in a year being too many

Notable Quotes

  • “You don't rip people off. You don't lie to people about deadlines. You don't take their money and then deliver nothing. You run at the pace you are capable of.”

    Kaneda@ 1:47 — Core critique of industry standard practices; praise for Chris Turner's approach contrasts with failures of competitors

  • “They spent $100,000 on an amazing launch video. And then what have they done since then? This is my concern.”

    Kaneda@ 3:23 — Critique of Jersey Jack's post-launch marketing of Avatar; suggests poor long-term engagement strategy

  • “I'm walking away from my Ellie's spot. A lot of you have Ellie's spots. I don't care anymore. I'm walking away from it on principle alone. I just don't like CGC.”

    Kaneda@ 6:57 — Strong sentiment shift on Pulp Fiction; customer abandonment due to communication and delivery failures

  • “We're a fickle bunch. We're like a flock of pinheads. We fly to the next exciting thing coming out.”

    Kaneda@ 9:03 — Self-aware commentary on collector community behavior and FOMO dynamics

  • “I think there's only so much you can do with toys and mechs. And maybe if it had more moments of wow, the code is getting better.”

    Kaneda@ 3:17 — Critique of Avatar's design philosophy and mechanical innovation limitations

  • “Nobody would ever get an Avatar tattoo. I mean, that is the test people.”

    Kaneda@ 17:18 — Sharp cultural critique of Avatar's thematic appeal compared to cult classics like Evil Dead

  • “I absolutely think we're going to see a Tron come back out. Stern knows this works tremendously well.”

    Kaneda@ 10:33 — Prediction of remaster strategy becoming standard; confidence in Stern's business model

Entities

KanedapersonChris TurnerpersonNinja EclipsegameAvatargamePulp FictiongameX-Mengame

Signals

  • ?

    product_launch: Avatar CE delayed past November target; beta playfields not ready at Expo indicates production and quality control issues

    high · Kaneda: 'they did not have these beta playfields ready to go and in great working order at Expo' and 'Do any of you think you're going to get your Avatar CE in November? Now, look, that's a week from now.'

  • ?

    product_concern: Pulp Fiction in production for over 2 years with topper component still incomplete; represents severe manufacturing and project management failure

    high · Kaneda reading news: 'they just got in a part for the topper. So now they can make the games' after 2+ years; 'Jack Danger made all of X-Men in 12 months and CGC can't make a topper in two years?'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Strong negative sentiment toward CGC from previously interested collector (Kaneda abandoning Pulp Fiction LE spot); community-wide shift from anticipation to indifference

    high · Kaneda: 'I'm walking away from my Ellie's spot...I don't care anymore. I'm walking away from it on principle alone' and prediction that many LEs will be available at discount

  • $

    market_signal: Evidence of collector fatigue on premium editions (X-Men LEs not selling out, LE price depreciation across portfolio) indicating market maturation and reduced FOMO buying

    high · Kaneda: 'the community has moved on we've moved on from I have to have it right now. Everything has gone down in value even Jaws LE has gone down in value'

  • ?

    business_signal: Spooky Pinball establishing competitive advantage through transparency, responsible production pace, and cult-focused theme strategy vs competitors failing on communication

Topics

Market oversaturation and production pace concernsprimaryGame launch and post-launch marketing strategyprimaryAvatar CE delays and code developmentprimaryCGC reputation crisis over Pulp Fiction productionprimarySpooky Pinball's Evil Dead announcement and strategyprimaryStern's 2025 pipeline and remaster strategyprimaryCollector community sentiment and FOMO dynamicssecondaryTheme licensing strategy and IP appealsecondary

Sentiment

mixed(-0.15)— Positive sentiment toward Spooky Pinball and Chris Turner's responsible approach; strong negative sentiment toward CGC (Pulp Fiction), moderate negativity on Jersey Jack (Avatar marketing failures), concern about industry-wide oversaturation. Underlying pessimism about 2025 market health balanced by selective praise for execution excellence.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.058

0:00
All my friends in this small town, my parents live in the same small town, my job is a small town, but that's a little opportunity. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Spinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. We are on the eve of November. we're getting to that end of the year time period and I know a lot of you are feeling maybe what I'm
0:31
feeling we're sort of just waiting for the next great game to come out a lot's been happening in pinball but let's be honest nothing is universally sort of taking over the pinball space a major congratulations to Chris Turner who has sold 100 ninja eclipse machines and the reason why I want to give Chris a real nice shout out is remember a year ago, he showed up to Expo with a game in a weird cabinet, right? He was trying to do new stuff. He thought the only way to differentiate
1:06
his company was to mess around with what people expect in a pinball cabinet. And that was very much, I think, like Robert Mueller still in his head. And what did Chris do? He spent the last year, putting the game back into a normal cabinet. He released only 100 of them, and it's priced now in a place that feels like a bargain. It's like 6,600 bucks or something. And so he went to Expo this year, and the four games on the show floor were sold out, and he now has orders for 100
1:40
Ninja Eclipse games, which he can now make. This is how you start small in the boutique pinball space. You don't rip people off. You don't lie to people about deadlines. You don't take their money and then deliver nothing. You run at the pace you are capable of. So Chris, I'm excited. Now look, Ninja Eclipse is not the game for me, but it means that he will then learn some stuff as he makes this game and move on to his next game. And we all know real success lies in pinball

  • Godzilla is the last universally beloved game in pinball; no game since has matched its reception

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I don't think there's been a game since Godzilla that's had the sort of universal love that that game has had'

  • “I think everybody needs to chill. I think everybody needs to realize we don't need 18 new games a year.”

    Kaneda@ 12:59 — Industry-wide concern about oversaturation and unsustainable production pace

  • “The only way a new game is going to make its way into your lineup is if it's amazing. And again, I think we're all just waiting for the next Godzilla.”

    Kaneda@ 14:01 — Core thesis of episode; establishes Godzilla as benchmark for game quality and market enthusiasm

  • “Spooky is probably the most transparent company in pinball, which makes everybody feel good.”

    Kaneda@ 16:44 — Positive contrast to CGC and JJP; highlights transparency as competitive advantage in trust-based market

    • Metallica Remastered
    game
    Jersey Jack Pinballcompany
    CGCcompany
    Stern Pinballcompany
    Spooky Pinballcompany
    Evil Deadgame
    Mark Seidenperson
    Jack Dangerperson
    John Borgperson
    Brian Eddyperson
    Keith Elwinperson
    Jason Knappperson
    Godzillagame
    Guns N' Rosesgame
    Falloutgame
    Tron Remastergame
    Foo Fightersgame
    Jawsgame
    Elton Johngame

    medium · Kaneda: 'Spooky is probably the most transparent company in pinball' vs CGC's 'worst communications imaginable'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Avatar criticized for muted/weak thematic translation with UV ink feature commoditized and lacking 'wow' moments; weakness in mechanical/code depth relative to theme premium

    high · Kaneda: 'muted clips' in Avatar vs Spooky's 'actually put toys into it and they actually integrated the theme in the right way' and 'You walk into a Spencer Gifts in a mall and every poster blacklit in a much brighter way'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Industry-wide concern about unsustainable production volume (18 games/year cited) leading to customer, collector, and company burnout; market cannot absorb this pace

    medium · Kaneda: 'I have to learn another 18 rule sets because there's 18 new games this year...we don't need 18 new games a year, 12 new games a year, there's not room for that much pinball'

  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern deploying successful remaster strategy (Metallica) as repeatable product category; likely to expand with Tron and other classics; creates new revenue stream and manages intellectual property

    medium · Kaneda: 'Stern knows this works tremendously well. And so I think we're going to see another Tron' and prediction of additional remasters following Metallica success at Expo

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Fallout rumored for Stern (2026 likely, not 2025); Dungeons & Dragons, King Kong, Spike 3, potential Tron remaster predicted for 2025 based on designer assignments and pattern recognition

    low · Kaneda: 'I heard that it's Fallout is something Stern is working on...I don't think Fallout's going to come out in 2025' and 'it's just a rumor. I don't know for sure'

  • ?

    machine_intel: Spooky's Evil Dead game confirmed for development with specific details (Evil Dead 1&2, Bruce Campbell call-outs, no Army of Darkness); expected announcement timing around Halloween or soon after; production run likely 666-800 units

    high · Kaneda: 'As you know, and I know, and Jason Knapp knows, we've known for the longest time, it is gonna be based on the Evil Dead. It is Evil Dead 1 and 2...They got Bruce Campbell to do the call-outs'

  • ?

    gameplay_signal: Games with sustained engagement (Godzilla, Guns N' Roses) characterized by hidden depth and continued discovery after extended play; lack of this quality cited as reason for weak adoption of newer titles

    medium · Kaneda on Guns N' Roses: 'Every time I walk up to it, it gives me more than enough to try to do. And I still haven't scratched the surface' vs Avatar's shallow UV feature implementation

  • ?

    content_signal: Lack of designer visibility and community engagement post-launch identified as marketing failure; Mark Seiden's absence from Avatar streaming and promotion cited as missed opportunity

    medium · Kaneda: 'Have they done anything with Mark Seiden to get people excited about this game on a weekly basis?' implying no official streams or designer engagement content produced

    • 2:11
    when you get to a licensed theme product and you're not going to be able to make a licensed themed product, unless you can show a license holder, you know how to make a game. So Chris, congratulations. We're happy to see 100 games sold. Now, speaking of a company that sold a lot more than 100 games, let's talk a little bit about Avatar and November. So the Avatar CEs were supposed to be out in November. Do any of you think you're going to get your Avatar CE in November?
    2:41
    Now, look, that's a week from now. And I know a lot of people are distracted by the election, and we probably can't wait till we just move on to how America will be come November 6th. But the thing is this, they did not have these beta playfields ready to go and in great working order at Expo. And does that mean they are still at the drawing board with this game? And we all know like Avatar has had a sluggish start, right? It hasn't had this sort of take my money now sort of energy around the theme. And I think it is the theme. I think there's only so
    3:17
    much you can do with toys and mechs. And maybe if it had more moments of wow, the code is getting better. But here's my observation of this game launch. They spent $100,000 on an amazing launch video. And then what have they done since then? This is my concern. It almost feels like Jersey Jack doesn't really know how to market this game now. There have been code updates. Has Jersey Jack had any official streams of the new code?
    3:53
    Have they done anything with Mark Seiden to get people excited about this game on a weekly basis? When you have a title like this, which is a slow burn seller, right? This is not a game. Think about it. This $100,000 video did not get them thousands of orders. Now they have to play the long game. And I'm just a little bit concerned that as every month goes on, we're getting closer and closer to Harry Potter.
    4:24
    People know that's next. And there's also not a lot of exciting wow to show people in the game right now. they're struggling with the UV it doesn't have this like wow moment the way it does in Stranger Things I also think everyone's looking at UV ink now not as a feature right it not a mech it not a toy there not a lot of engineering that goes into UV ink You walk into a Spencer Gifts in a mall and every poster blacklit in a much brighter way
    4:58
    than a $15,000 pinball machine. And I think we just want more. We want themes that we want more. We want the translation of those themes into pinball to be done better. And we're also at a point now, everybody, and I think you'll agree with this, and we're seeing it with X-Men. You really only get one chance to make a first impression. And if you make people wait months after months after months to see the game potentially wake up, we're just not going to throw money at these things if that's the way you launch your game.
    5:32
    I mean, look at Pulp Fiction Ellie. I just read something that was absolutely ridiculous. Here's a game that over two years ago, everybody was excited about. We were still in that period of the COVID frenzy. We were kind of buying anything that excited us. And there was a great 20-minute launch video that Zach put together interviewing the team, why they made the game that way. Everybody was excited. And if you got an LE, you were really happy. You felt like you got your hands on something truly special.
    6:05
    And now look at the vibe and the energy around this game. It's been out forever. The LDs are still not on the line. And now I read something that's like, well, they just got in a part for the topper. So now they can make the games. Are you kidding me? How could that topper that just moves back and forth? That's it. It just shimmies back and forth as they're dancing. And it's just a plastic sculpt. How could that topper take longer to engineer and manufacture a production ready version
    6:38
    than an entire pinball game takes to make. Jack Danger made all of X-Men in 12 months and CGC can't make a topper in two years? And it's at the point now where I just don't care at all. I'm walking away from my Ellie's spot. I have an Ellie's spot. A lot of you have Ellie's spots. I don't care anymore. I'm walking away from it on principle alone. I just don't like CGC. I don't like the way they treat their customers. They say absolutely nothing to any of us.
    7:11
    What is that? In what world do you get to get away with the worst communications imaginable? I think it's at a point now where some of us might just want to speak with our wallets. And if you're going to do this, I'm not going to invest in this company. And the only time I'm going to buy a CGC game now is if it's in a box at a distributor ready to go. And here's what I think is going to happen. There are going to be now plenty of Pulp Fiction LEs in boxes at distributors because I think a lot of people are over it.
    7:42
    I think a lot of people have moved on. And when you know what's coming down the pipeline in the pinball industry, this game, I don't know. You know, it had a moment. It had a moment. The moment has passed. And I just don't think there's going to be enthusiasm or like all thousand of those LEs are going to be spoken for. They're not going to go up in price and you're going to be able to get one easily without having to wait more than like a weekend to get it. Shame on you, CGC. There's just no excuse why this company can't get it together.
    8:13
    All right, so let's move on. We've got Stern's X-Men, a game that is still being baked, a game that I think the jury is undecided on which direction this game will go. I'm still somewhat surprised the LEs have not sold out, but then I'm not surprised because I think the community Again has moved on we've moved on from I have to have it right now You've seen so many people run at these LEs and lose money Everything has gone down in value even Jaws LE has gone down in value
    8:47
    Metallica LE probably won't go down in value, but we're not talking about Metallica were talking about X-Men. Now, Metallica LE coming out and creating that frenzy at Expo obviously does not help X-Men sales at all. And we're a fickle bunch. We're like a flock of pinheads. We fly to the next exciting thing coming out. We had a lot of fun on the Saturday show figuring out someone who would win a chance to buy one at MSRP. Pavel, congratulations on winning that.
    9:20
    It was great. We had 47 club members trying to get that spot. Look, I wish I had 46 other ones to give you guys. I think by the time the X-Men code gets great, by the time they figure out the auto-plunge issues everyone will have moved on to something else And also because X Pro is so good I think X just going to be a game where the players are going to enjoy it But I think the collectors and everybody else who want to spend
    9:50
    like $9,500 or more on a pinball machine, I think they're kind of going to avoid buying X-Men at MSRP. All right. And then we got what's next from Stern Pinball. I put up the rumor. I heard that it's Fallout is something Stern is working on. I don't think Fallout's going to come out in 2025. I think Fallout might be a 2026 title. But again, it's just a rumor. I don't know for sure. But it's always fun to speculate what's around the corner. If you were to ask me, I think in 2025, we're
    10:21
    going to see Dungeons and Dragons from Brian Eddy. We're going to see King Kong from Keith Elwin. We're going to see Spike 3. And I think if this Metallica remastered has shown us anything, I absolutely think we're going to see a Tron come back out. Stern knows this works. Like they know this works tremendously well. And so I think we're going to see another Tron. Will we see another game by Jack Danger? Does he need a break? You know who we need to see a new game from? John Borg. Like where's John Borg's new game?
    10:52
    I know he worked a lot on this. Well, maybe it's Tron because if he worked as much on the new Metallica as he did on the original Metallica, then maybe this is his like way to be successful. And I think he's on to something. And Stern Pinball, if they're going to remake the best of yesteryears with great new games, I'd hate to be competing against Stern. they're going to have to deal with the fallout, not the game fallout, but the fallout from all
    11:22
    of those older collectors who are going to be pissed off when they make a new version. Now, if you think about Tron, there's only 400 Tron LE owners. So that's an interesting question, right? Do we piss off those original 400 owners, make 500 new LEs and then a new premium? Because remember Tron never had a premium. It was just the LE and the Pro. And when Stern first released Tron on the box itself, it said Tron premium. So it's interesting to see what they're going to do
    11:56
    with their new factory. They absolutely need to continue to make games every single month. They can't have a slowdown. It's not going to happen. I mean, Stern's going to keep firing. I worry in general about the oversaturation of pinball in general. There's so many companies. There's so many products coming out. There's only so much room everybody has. I really do think in 2025, it's going to get even softer as a market, not stronger unless
    12:29
    everybody dials it back. I mean that they've got to start thinking about dialing down production a little bit, dialing down the price a little bit. It just can't keep going at this pace. I think everybody's going to burn out. I think the companies are going to burn out. I think the customers are going to burn out. I think the collectors are going to burn out. I think location players are going to burn out. I have to learn another 18 rule sets because there's 18 new games this year. I think everyone just needs to relax a little bit in pinball.
    12:59
    I think everybody needs to chill. I think everybody needs to realize we don't need 18 new games a year 12 new games a year, there's not room for that much pinball. And if you come out with like a major theme, like a Back to the Future or a Harry Potter, you might be good for a while. When a game enters the top 10 on Pinsider, top 15, if you make a game that climbs that high on the top 20 games of all time, that's going to satiate people for a year. Like how many of you out there who own a Godzilla have gotten deep into that game? How many of you? Every time you walk up
    13:34
    to it, isn't it still fun? Isn't there still a ton to do? I mean, that's how I feel about Guns and Roses. Every time I walk up to it, it gives me more than enough to try to do. And I still haven't scratched the surface at what's in the game. And so as I'm content with one game, and most of you have more than one great game, do you really feel the need to put another new thing into the lineup? For some of you, the answer is yes. But I think for a lot of people, the only way a new game is going to make its way into
    14:06
    your lineup is if it's amazing. And again, I think we're all just waiting for the next Godzilla. I don't think there's been a game since Godzilla that's had the sort of universal love that game has had. We got a little bit close with the beginning of Foo Fighters sales, but that trickled off. That theme was never going to win over most people. Jaws was good. Jaws was good but I think people were just really disappointed with the lack of the shark eating the ball Nothing from Jersey Jack really captivated people Elton John is loved by those who own it but it not being bought at volume
    14:41
    numbers like Guns N' Roses was. So what do we think about Spooky's next game, right? Spooky, are they going to make that game that everybody loves? Well, I think they're at the point now where it would be nice to tease the new game on Halloween, because if you think about it, sales of Looney Tunes and Texas Chainsaw Massacre are over. Like there's no new sales happening. I was at Expo. Those games on the floor were for sale and I don't think they sold many of them. And so now we're all looking forward to the next game.
    15:13
    As you know, and I know, and Jason Knapp knows, we've known for the longest time, it is gonna be based on the Evil Dead. It is Evil Dead 1 and 2, those two movies. It is not Army of Darkness. They got Bruce Campbell to do the call-outs. And look, Evil Dead, obviously, it's not a mainstream thing. It's not as popular as Friday the 13th or Nightmare on Elm Street. It is definitely a theme that makes sense for spooky pinball. Is this another case of they're making games for themselves?
    15:44
    Or are they making games for the larger pinball community? The good news is this. I don't think they're going to make anywhere near 1,000 of them. I think we might see 666 or 800 or some other number maybe from the Evil Dead world. But I know they're never going to do a Scooby-Doo again. They're never going to announce like 1,969 Scooby-Doos. Like that's just too many. There's no demand. So I think Spooky Pinball has like two to three games that are in development. And so if that is the case, I don't think they want to make Evil Dead for an entire year.
    16:17
    I think they want to get another game out like in the summertime of 2025. So I could see this being a smaller run game. And if they do announce that only 666 Evil Dead games, guess what? They're going to sell out like right away because that's like the perfect amount for the theme. And Spooky Executes, right? No one's worried that when they give Spooky money, they're not going to get their game and the company's not going to be transparent. They are probably the most transparent company in pinball, which makes everybody feel good.
    16:50
    Now, if the quality is there and the mechs are awesome, you know they're going to integrate the movie into the game perfectly. They're going to do it. You're not going to see muted clips like you do in Avatar. They're not going to need a $100,000 sizzle launch video to sell this game. They're going to sell this game because they actually put toys into it and they actually integrated the theme in the right way and they picked a cult theme that people love. And that's a smarter marketing move than avatar with muted clips and nobody would ever get an avatar tattoo.
    17:26
    I mean, that is the test people. All right, everybody. So that's where we're at. That's where we're at. Is there going to be another big move by the end of the year other than spooky pinball? Is Stern Pinball going to release its next cornerstone in December? Remember, they released X-Men in August. So timing wise, it should be right around there. And I'm really curious to see what Jersey Jack does in November with these CEs of Avatar, if they're going to find a way to fix the UV and get more moments of wow into the code of that game. And we'll be covering
    18:03
    it all here on Canada's Pinball Podcast. Everybody, we will talk again maybe before Halloween. If not, Have a happy Halloween and let's see what happens in this pinball world. I don't know about you, but I feel like all of our money is probably pretty safe over the next like month and a half as we wait for the big stuff that is down the road. Maybe now's a good time to spend your holidays engaging with your family and not buying, buying. I think the world is over consuming and we all feel it.
    18:36
    I mean that. The only thing you need to consume every month is Canadian Pinball Podcast, and we scratch the itch, right? It's $5 a month. It's nothing. $60 a year. Everybody, thank you for being here. We'll chat soon.
    19:07
    Thank you.