Episode 1007: "So Where Does Dutch Go Now?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·29m 3s·analyzed·Oct 9, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Dutch Pinball's Alice reveal lacks narrative & gameplay footage; broader market shows LE fatigue despite quality releases.

Summary

Host Kaneda discusses Dutch Pinball troubled Alice's Adventures in Wonderland reveal, criticizing the lack of narrative context, gameplay footage, and marketing strategy around the Papaduke-derived game. He examines the broader market fatigue affecting premium pinball pricing, analyzes Jersey Jack's Avatar and Stern's X-Men launches, and advocates for community-driven product development and transparency over secrecy.

Key Claims

Dutch Pinball failed to provide any narrative context explaining why Alice exists or why Melvin wanted to make a John Papaduke game
high confidence · Kaneda, primary complaint throughout episode about Alice reveal
90% of Alice's 500-unit allocation is already spoken for and paid for (partial deposits of $1500)
high confidence · Kaneda states he reached out to Melissa (Dutch Pinball staff) and received this information
No premium LE pinball games are selling out anymore; market fatigue and price resistance affecting all manufacturers
medium confidence · Kaneda's observation: 'Every game. None of these LEs and CEs are selling out anywhere'
Avatar CE at $15,000 will never sell close to 1000 units due to pricing and feature execution issues
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of JJP market positioning
Stern's X-Men LE is dramatically outselling JJP's Avatar LE despite lower price and higher quality execution
medium confidence · Kaneda comparing market performance and noting surprise X-Men LE isn't sold out
Alice's foam core version existed at Zidware 11 years ago and was used by John Papaduke as part of his marketing scheme
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing history: 'we all know the reason for that thing's existence is John was using it as part of his scheme'
The greatest pinball sales in history happened during COVID when no shows were running
medium confidence · Kaneda's observation about e-commerce sales during pandemic
Jersey Jack's pricing model ($12,500+ for Alice-comparable product) is unsustainable and making CEs unenticing to purchase
medium confidence · Kaneda's market analysis of JJP vs Stern pricing strategy

Notable Quotes

“If you put something out into the pinball world, you as a company have the ability to control the narrative. You have the ability to sort of put in front of people this stuff you want them to react to.”
Kaneda @ early episode — Core thesis about Dutch Pinball's failed marketing approach for Alice
“There is no story that went along with it... Did John Youssi it anywhere? Did you hear from anybody at Dutch Pinball? Were there any interviews? Were there any discussions?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Key criticism of complete lack of narrative context in Alice reveal
“Melvin was on the receiving end of 11 years of how people have felt about these John Papaduke games, about how John was like over-sexualizing these characters from children's books, all the stuff that made John Papaduke this weird dude.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Contextualizes community skepticism toward Alice and Papaduke IP history
“If you're Melvin you're going to want to get in front of that. You're going to want to explain to people why you did it... If you're honest and open with people, it will disarm them. And we didn't see any of that yesterday.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Direct critique of Dutch Pinball's failure to address community concerns proactively
“It is filling in the blanks of what that foam core game was. So where there were just ideas in foam core, we made physical things.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Describes Alice's actual value proposition—execution of Papaduke's original concept
“You're making a John Papaduke game into a real game. You're starting like down by five runs, nobody's on base and you've got an 0-2 count in the game. You really got an uphill battle to climb.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Sports metaphor for Alice's inherent market disadvantage due to Papaduke IP association
“For $12,500 for just a little bit more, you can go get an X-Men LE, which is clearly a far superior pin, like not even close.”
Kaneda — Direct price/value comparison between Alice and Stern X-Men showing market pressure

Entities

Dutch Pinballcompany Melvin Williamsperson John Papadukeperson Alice's Adventures in Wonderlandgame Kanedaperson Avatar

Signals

?
product_concern: Alice reveal lacked gameplay footage, narrative context, and strategic rollout; Dutch Pinball failed to control narrative or address John Papaduke IP association concerns
high · Extended critique of reveal video quality, no gameplay shown, no interviews/context provided, video 'showed absolutely no gameplay'
~
sentiment_shift: Strong negative community sentiment in Alice thread related to Papaduke's historical design choices and failed projects; community skepticism likely to impact sales despite pre-allocation success
high · Kaneda discusses Pinside Alice thread division, describes Papaduke as 'weird dude,' notes 'overwhelming sentiment that everything John worked on at Zidware should be put in a dumpster'
$
market_signal: No premium pinball LEs/CEs selling out; market fatigue with $12,500-$15,000 pricing across all manufacturers; Avatar CE unlikely to reach sales targets despite quality design
high · 'Every game. None of these LEs and CEs are selling out anywhere. Anywhere.' X-Men LE not sold out, Avatar CE won't sell close to 1000 units. Godfather CE example of devaluation.
?
competitive_signal: Stern consistently outperforming Jersey Jack in market reception and sales despite JJP's superior design/art package; X-Men LE outselling Avatar LE despite lower price positioning
high · 'Stern's gonna win again. We always think Stern is vulnerable... How could you with a straight face buy a John Wick LE and pass on an X-Men LE?'
?
design_philosophy: Avatar's Pandora language on inserts fails to connect with players culturally; design choice to feature non-English alien language reduces gameplay clarity and emotional resonance

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.087

0:00

Welcome to Gannata's Pinball Podcast and as Axel said, where do we go now? We know all the titles that are going to be at Expo. We pretty much know everything other than maybe Metallica Remastered that's going to come out, maybe at the brush陽dgenommen�� passport?.. утízال간ाயחा 시간이 conditioned Pennsylvania았다ינא yn종", Thank you for watching. If you liked this video, please subscribe so you don't miss our next video! If you want to see more stories like this, please check out our YouTube channel. If you are getting into the game, please like this video and subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you are in the world, it's beautiful. It's going to catch on. Our sale is going to catch up to the sexiness of that game. We're not going to see new stuff from Spooky just yet. We're not going to see any new stuff from CGC. What are we going to do as we head into the holidays? What are going to be the things that has our attention? Let's start with Alice Reveal again. And I've been reading Pinside and I've seen a lot of division and I just want to say when I think about the launch of Alice, I think what I'm really confused about is what did they think was going to happen? If you put something out into the pinball world, you as a company have the ability to control the narrative. You have the ability to sort of put in front of people this stuff you want them to react to. You have the ability to get in front of some concerns, some questions and some realities that are going to happen on day one when you reveal this game. Here is the thing that I think was missing the most from yesterday. There is no story that went along with it. And I don't mean the story of why Alice is dressed like that. I don't mean any of that. The story of why this game exists. Did you see it anywhere? Did you hear from anybody at Dutch Pinball? Were there any interviews? Were there any discussions? Was there anything that let you in as to the reason why this game exists? And I think that was really important around the existence of this game because we know that 11 years ago, this game was a foam core sitting at Zidware that J-pop cooked up. The game was not designed from the ground up to be something completely original. When people are saying, why is there an upper playfield in this game? It doesn't look fun. This and that. It's twice the size or four times the size of the Twilight Zone one. The reason why it's there is it was there in the foam core edition of the game that John made. The reason why Alice looks the way she does is because that's how Alice looks on the zombie Yeti version of the game from 11 years ago. So Melvin just wanted to make a working version of that game. He wanted to do what has been impossible in the world of pinball and that's make a Commercially viable version of a J-pop idea. Did you ever get to buy Magic Girl that worked? No. Did you ever get to buy a Raza that worked? No. There was always this sort of mystery and adoration for this foam core thing sitting at Zidware. And we all know the reason for that thing's existence is John was using it as part of his Ponzi scheme. He wanted you to be deflected by that being like, look, my company's so successful. That example was also spread by Sh dúki Ba car

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ii口 I guess I'm a bit lost. but how did I get to clip it? how does wouldn't you quitrolle? I imagine someone who could start a restaurant it now, in a convenient for me it's good all and their total you can continue making where you want to buy Ut Return,Par compliment & pumps, Blind морCKoo, 實시간 ל� The Ad rhino Time period is 90 seconds All of these are very similar, but you are now in a bubble, this was a really small bubble and when you are in a small bubble and you get no feedback and nobody in the outside world is giving you advice on maybe some things to consider, some things to change, some things to add, you are basically isolated. So, I would say that the more you are able to cram all the feedback you would have gotten over like a six to eight month period as you were bringing people into the journey, you are truncating all of that into like 30 minutes of feedback instantly on everything you have been doing over the last year. It's like Melvin was on the receiving end of 11 years of how people have felt about these J-pop games, about how John was like over-sexualizing these characters from children's books, all the stuff that made J-pop this weird dude. And there is always going to be this overwhelming sentiment that everything John worked on at Zidware should be put in a dumpster, put gasoline on it, and just light it on fire. Cap functions and Why are we still looking back at what that mad scientist created so many years ago when none of it ever ends up being an amazing pinball game If you Melvin you going to want to get in front of that You going to want to explain to people why you did it And look, his prerogative for loving that stuff and wanting to make it is his prerogative and I always tend to believe. If you're honest and open with people, it will disarm them. And we didn't see any of that yesterday. There was no narrative. There was no reason why you acquired all the Zidware stuff, why you wanted to make this game, how you made this game. What challenges did you overcome? Was there anything you wanted to get in this game that you couldn't? You know, none of it. There was nothing. And so you drop this on the world with no narrative, no walkthrough. So you're not managing Tom irrani moving, 25 arche8 Click marksnal alterhmmon I hear from Barry that it shootss great. Uh, show us! Show us! Like, how are we supposed to know how this thing plays? It clearly doesn't have, like, crazy unique shots. It definitely seems like a more fan layout, sort of casual layout game that's not gonna have a ton of crazy pathways and ball trajectories and all that stuff. But I don't even think people care. I think if you explain what you were trying to do, take this foam core, make it into a working game, fill in the blanks. Basically, I mean, that is what this game is. It is filling in the blanks of what that foam core game was. So where there were just ideas in foam core, we made physical things. Where there was artwork with no color, we colorized it. Where there was just placeholders for a jabberwocky or whatever his name is, we put one there. You know, where there was an upper The game was not ready to get this game in front of everybody. They did not have the assets or the video or enough in the can to make sure they were going to launch this game with the right narrative. And I know they want to get the game to Expo, but you don't even need to bring a game like this to Expo if you launch it right using the internet. I think everybody forgets the greatest sales in the history of pinball happened during COVID. No shows were going on. And so the people that are going to buy Alice's Adventures in Wonderland, they don't even need to see it at a show. They're not going to need to play it at a show. You're targeting collectors and the thing that collectors love is they love a story. They love buying a game that's unique, that's different and has some sort of story attached to it. And they didn't get any of that. They just got artwork, they got some playfield images, and they got a video that showed absolutely no gameplay. And then the focus was on the callouts, which people did not like. Daily V娘áe, V earbuds Viktorán, Axtra, P cởè gèŋàe, Deceiteya Aishgo P T Hawk Instead of like signing Kaneda and Kerry under NDA and barely giving us any assets, I think the smart thing they should have done was invited people over there to see the game in person. They should have flown over a few streamers who are really good at pinball and allowed them to play some games and stream it. This is still part of Barry's company and I think they need a wake up call. And I think the wake up call is this. It's no longer the same time it was when you released the Big Lebowski. That was a really long time ago. That was like 11 years ago too. It was the same period of time where John was getting all these deposits. A lot has changed in the pinball world since then. Stern has upped their ante. Jersey Jack is dropping beautiful pins on the world. Jersey Jack is dropping $100,000 launch videos on the world. People remember how good that avatar video was. People also remember what happened to X-Men when that stream was terrible the first time they showed the game and how much that hurt sales of that game. And you know, if you're Dutch Pinball, you're making a J-Pop game into a real game. You're starting like down by five runs, nobody's on base and you've got an 0-2 count in the game. You really got an uphill battle to climb, so you need to go the extra mile. And it just felt like yesterday they did anything but go the extra mile to understand what they needed to do to deliver this game for the first time to the world. You could chalk it up with a little bit of arrogance. There is like there's this arrogance like we did it. We made it. Here it is. If you don't like it, so what? That's not going to work. That's not going to work because for $12,500 for just a little bit more money, you can go get an X-Men Ali, which is clearly a far superior pin, like not even close. Now look, they're gonna make thousands of X-Men's in the world. You know, there's only gonna be 500 Alice's but still, it doesn't work just to be beautiful and rare. That does not work. We've seen too many companies try to do it that way. You also need to have a game there. A game with modes that pull you in and are fun to play. You need some mechs that are rewarding to shoot for in the game. It's not 11 years ago. And there's nothing more painful in life than doing all the hard work and then fumbling and the execution when it counts. Because ultimately, that is when it counts. Now, I'm here to tell you right now, I've reached out to Melissa and she informed me that 90% of their allocation is spoken for and paid for. So, it does look like this game is going to sell out. Even with that launch video, even with such a lackluster reveal day, The game is most likely gonna find 500 homes or 500 people to commit to a spot because this isn paying in full yet Nobody had a pay in full Everyone is just paying 1500 bucks And we seen this before you know there going to be a lot of people that speculate a lot of people that grab one and every single person who grabbed one all 500 people if it does sell out nobody has played the game And so when they finally get time on it at Expo that gonna be I think the make or break moment for this game Not in terms of like it selling out It the make or break moment for this game on whether or not people will continue to care about it That what is going to happen coming out of Expo If it fun to shoot and people expectations are really low right now I think it might be able to win people over because of how Tim Jennings said, pretender where's the hint here There is no Then what do you really own? You own something that's not very desirable because a collector wants a game to flex with. You know, they want a game where you look at them and I've got it, right? I've got one of them. I've got one of 500 and I've got the upper playfield and I've got the magna flip and I've got the jabberwocky. I've got one. I've got the beautiful Alice artwork and the topper. I've got one in my game room and you don't. There always has to be a little bit of that when it comes to collectibles. So where do they go now? Well, I know So, I'm not sure if I'm a part of that, like I might be. The plan originally was for both of us to interview him and so if that's the case, like I'll happily sit down and talk to him and I definitely think, you know, we'll ask him some hard questions. And I know Melvin really well and he's not going to shy away from these questions and I actually think putting him in front of this game and humanizing his game a little bit will be beneficial to how everybody feels about the game. Now for those of you out there who have said like, oh, Kennedy, you've gone soft on this game. You've gone soft. You signed an NDA and now you're buddies with Melvin and you've gone soft on the game. The old you would have been tearing this game apart. You know, I'm here to tell you right now, that's not completely wrong, you know, but I'm also older now and I'm also exhausted. Like I don't want to tear everything apart. Like I think ultimately what I get enjoyment of is watching the way the market responds to this stuff because the market is the most objective The game is a sort of a lucid entity that responds to pinball launches. And if the market has taught us anything, every game is sort of met with a lukewarm response now. Every game. None of these LEs and CEs are selling out anywhere. Anywhere. I mean, X-Men LE, brand new code came out yesterday. It's really awesome. You know, the owners of that game are loving it, but you can't deny the fact it's still not sold out, the LEs. And as great as that design is, four years ago that game is sold out in one hour. It just goes to show you, I think everyone's just exhausted and a little bit fatigued by these like $13,000 Sterns. Avatar CE is never going to sell out. It doesn't matter what they do to the code. They're never going to sell close to a thousand CEs at $15,000 a pop because everyone's realizing The game is a game where they're either going to make some real significant code changes that make the game much more exciting and they're going to have to figure out how to get that UV going. I mean, part of me thinks that they should call up Penn Stadium who's working on that blue light or black light UV kit, maybe find a way to add additional UV. But we shouldn't have to, right? For $15,000 and you've been developing this game for three years or two years, we should not have to add additional lighting to make the feature that you said is the big feature in the game to make it work effectively. You can't play with the same game as effectively as the Stranger Things UV kit. It just doesn't. So in terms of Avatar, you know, where does that game go? Expo is going to be really interesting. I think people are going to love the way Avatar looks. It is the sexiest JJP game I think to date. It looks phenomenal. I want to love the game as much as I love the way it looks. That's how I am on this game. And I'm waiting to see what they do with the code because if they do add more synchronized voices and add more sound effects from those movie scenes, I could see this game doing a 180 for a lot of people that have played it for a while and they got far into the game but it hasn't clicked with you. It's not pulling you in on an emotional level and if they can find a way to get more of the energy from the movie into the game, it's going to help them. Because looking down and seeing the Navi language on the inserts where nobody can read that stuff, who thought that would be a good idea? To put on the inserts the foreign language of a native tribe from a fictional planet that doesn't exist. Pandora words have not carried over into our culture the way words in the Star Wars universe have, right? Like, metachloriads, yeah, like I know what a metachloriad is. I don't know what oolah joolah moolah means. It's just like this weird language that like doesn't connect and click with people. And so that's going to be interesting because if Expo comes and goes and people aren't blown away and the UV is not working really well, you got no real time left to reignite the flame around Avatar. And unfortunately, I think the same thing is going to happen to Avatar that happened to Elton John. And it's gonna be harder for Avatar cuz avatar doesn't have the Steve Richie fanbase following it. Avatar does not shoot as well as Elton John and I think avatar misses the mark more on theme integration than Elton John does. I actually think Elton John as a theme integration is almost perfect. And there's way more I would change in avatar as a machine than I would change in Elton John. And the thing I would change in both of them is the price. They're both too much money. Jersey Jack pricing model is not gonna work It just doesn work You can have be the base model because only a sucker would spend that much knowing that there so much more in the CE for but then nobody wants to drop because there a good chance it gonna be worth in like six months when Harry Potter comes out I just think Jersey Jack is making these beautiful games but they made it really unenticing to write checks for them When we I think they sold more Godfather CEs faster than Avatar CEs And look what happened to Godfather CEs. They're losing like six to seven thousand dollars almost. And you know in the end Stern's gonna win again. We always think Stern is vulnerable. Stern doesn't know what they're doing. Stern John Wick. Clip of the actual game being played. Art package is amazing. When I look down at this game, I am surprised that the LE of X-Men is not sold out. I mean, what do you want people? How could you with a straight face buy a John Wick LE and pass on an X-Men LE? How could you with a straight face buy a Venom LE and not go near X-Men LE? It is such a better game and it's gorgeous like everything about it. There's absolutely nothing you need to change on this game apparently other than the power of the auto plunger. I mean I don't even, I'm so tired of reading about the auto plunger on this game. Somebody fix the damn auto plunger Jack. Get the engineers to stay late tonight and solve it. I don't know if you're going to solve it just by changing the power of it in the code. But new X-Men code just dropped, new music is in it, new callouts, new moments, they're shuffling it around and people love it. People love it. I'm hearing nothing but good stuff. I mean they're kind of annoying because X-Men LE owners now are really annoying. They won't shut up about it. But that's good. I want people that love a game so much, they don't want to stop talking about how much they love it. The last point I want to make on today's show people is if you buy something and you're happy with your purchase, I want everybody to do this moving forward. When you buy a new pinball machine, let's say it's X-Men, let's say it's Avatar, let's say it's Alice, let's say it's Pulp Fiction, whatever it is, when you buy a new machine and you're excited about it and you feel really good, the next thing you need to do is turn off the internet for the next two weeks. Don't listen to what anybody else says Locker 있을kan auf Alles analytical The Free Jersie Jack is making Avatar. That's the greatest news he could ever hear and he's gonna love it and every moment he plays it he's gonna love it like nothing anyone says should ever remove his enjoyment of the game but he's also gonna lose $5,000 on it you know what I'm saying but that doesn't think it's like it doesn't matter but pinsides becomes such a negative place and it's become a creepy place especially in this Alice thread I don't want to hear like dudes in their 60s talking about how Emma I'm on the internet, watching the video of the game and I'm saying this because I've got friends who ordered Alice. And I know you're nervous. And I know you don't even know what you ordered. And I know everybody on pinside wants to tell you what an idiot you are right now. And I would just say this. I just wouldn't listen to them. And if you like the artwork, guess what people? Artwork is subjective. The only art package nobody's allowed to like is Oktoberfest. Alright, we've established that, okay? But please, this artwork is not going to look bad. I guarantee you when people see this game in person at Expo, they're going to say it looks really good. I think there's going to be a lot less complaints about it when you see it in real life. Everybody, thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. I'm still exhausteded. The hype train takes a lot out of me. And look, all I can do is get you excited. It's still up to these companies. And I think Dutch needs to really work on its marketing. They need to slow down and don't release anything unless you're proud of it. Letting out a video like that was irresponsible and it was damaging, not just to Melvin and his game, but there are people wondering now if Dutch is even qualified Well done by ColdplayQ Entertainment, thank you for joining us for Waiting for Catfish***, this was fun.