Episode 118 Special Guest Kaneda?

TL;DR

Market pricing debate: classic pinball machines doubling in value as new collectors enter hobby.

Summary

Key Claims

• Flash Gordon machines have nearly doubled in price from $2,000-2,800 range to $5,600 in 12-18 months

  high confidence · Drew presenting Pinside marketplace listings with historical pricing data

• The Champion Pub has increased from ~$4,500 to $7,500 in 1-2 years

  high confidence · Drew citing specific marketplace data from Pinside ads

• Indiana Jones machines are now selling for $15,000 (up from ~$7,500 eighteen months ago)

  high confidence · Drew referencing current Pinside listings compared to historical prices

• Lord of the Rings has increased from $5,000 to $10,000+ in recent years

  high confidence · Drew noting progression from initial entry into hobby through current listings

• New in-box games being resold at full MSRP or higher after significant use is unsustainable

  medium confidence · Jonathan Hall expressing concern about resale value retention on new games

• Munsters Premium Edition is listed at $13,795 - an example of current inflated pricing

  high confidence · Drew citing specific marketplace listing

• Twilight Zone has doubled from ~$6,500-7,000 to $12,795

  high confidence · Drew comparing historical and current marketplace prices

• Supply issues and manufacturer backlogs are preventing price corrections in the near term

  medium confidence · Jonathan Hall's market analysis on future 12-month outlook

• Star Wars Premium Edition is undervalued/poorly received compared to other recent releases

  medium confidence · Jonathan Hall's personal experience and observation about secondary market pricing

• New hobbyists entering the market with disposable income are driving up demand for both new and classic machines

Notable Quotes

• “I'm not trying to stick a knife in your wound here, John Hall. But these are real numbers, right?”

  Drew @ mid-episode — Sets tone for serious pricing analysis despite comedic banter

• “I don't think the bubble is going to burst on new titles. I think that bubble is going to burst on 20 year old titles being sold for new in-box prices unless they're extremely rare.”

  Jonathan Hall @ mid-episode — Key market prediction distinguishing between new and classic game bubble risk

• “I could put $1,000 to $2,000 or 2,000 plays on a brand-new new-in-box title and sell it at full MSRP or more. That has to change.”

  Jonathan Hall @ mid-episode — Identifies unsustainable secondary market dynamic for new games

• “If The Champion Pub goes down to $6,500, you're still paying too much for it, right?”

  Jonathan Hall @ mid-episode — Illustrates belief that even price decreases won't reach 'fair' levels

• “I think that it's not going to change that much in the next, say, 12 months. And here's why: because we're still going through to have supply issues. The backlog keeps getting further behind.”

  Jonathan Hall @ late-episode — Connects supply constraints to price stability prediction

• “Upper Middle Class Pinball Podcast. That's what it is now. Drew's not poor anymore. He's throwing stars at us.”

  Caller/Community member (early segment) @ opening — Community commentary on podcast host's expensive collection (comedic/social dynamic)

• “I'm really enjoying it. I would say if you thought maybe that Star Wars was not like your kind of game because of things you've heard, it's not like tournament players really don't seem to like that game.”

  Jonathan Hall @ mid-episode — Defends Star Wars Premium Edition against competitive player perception

• “When they were making The Lord of the Rings, it was probably 2003. I don't think they were selling a lot to the homes. They were still putting them on location.”

Entities

Signals

• ?

  business_signal: New in-box games retaining full MSRP or appreciating after significant use is identified as unsustainable market dynamic

  high · Jonathan Hall: 'it is absurd to me that you can put $1,000 to $2,000 or 2,000 plays on a brand-new new-in-box title and sell it at full MSRP or more'

• ~

  sentiment_shift: Community commentary frames podcast host as wealthy collector despite 'Poor Man's' branding; humorous but reflects perception of hobby cost escalation

  high · Opening caller: 'Drew...you ain't no poor man no more...you're Upper Middle Class Man's Pinball Podcast'

• ?

  design_philosophy: Star Wars Premium Edition receives criticism from tournament players but positive reception from casual/home players and families

  medium · Jonathan Hall: 'tournament players really don't seem to like that game' but 'My son loves it, the neighbors...the kids love it' and plays better than expected

• ?

  event_signal: MGC event upcoming with significant community attendance including Tim Dan Lee, Billy YJ, and others; Drew unable to attend

  high · Drew discussing picking up Billy YJ from airport, Tim Dan Lee and wife driving from Illinois for event

• $

  market_signal: Historical market structure: 50% home collector / 50% location operator split may have changed significantly since classic era (early 2000s)

  medium · George Gomez quote (~4-5 years ago): 50% home, 50% location; hosts discussing whether Lord of the Rings era saw different distribution