Episode 841: "Imagine No Elwin in Pinball"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·15m 50s·analyzed·Sep 1, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Keith Elwin is pinball's only justifiable luxury as industry stagnates mechanically despite record prices.

Summary

Chris Kaneda reassesses his ranking of the second-most anticipated pinball designer after Keith Elwin, ultimately reaffirming John Borg but expressing deep concerns about the lack of mechanical innovation across the entire industry. He argues that Keith Elwin is the only designer whose games justify current $12,000-$15,000 price points, and predicts a market correction as demand dries up for non-Elwin releases. The episode reflects broader industry fatigue with design stagnation despite record prices.

Key Claims

No mechanism released since Godzilla (approximately 2021-2022) has genuinely impressed or created a 'wow moment' in pinball design
medium confidence · Kaneda's editorial assessment based on reviewing 2023 releases and recent games
Keith Elwin is the only designer in the industry capable of justifying current $12,000-$15,000 price points
medium confidence · Kaneda's direct statement comparing Elwin to other designers (Gomez, Borg, Eddy) and their recent releases
Jersey Jack Pinball has hired Stern's head of mechanical engineering
high confidence · Kaneda reports this as recent news: 'the other day that Jersey Jack Pinball hired Stern's head of mechanical engineering'
No one leaves Stern who Stern wants to keep; people who leave Stern (like Christopher Franchi) want to return
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion on Stern's retention and industry dynamics
Secondary market pricing for recent major releases has collapsed dramatically—Scooby-Doo $2,000 down, Godfather $2,000-$3,000 down, Toy Story 4 ~$4,000 down, Guns N' Roses LE essentially unsellable
medium confidence · Kaneda citing observed market pricing trends
George Gomez games lack flow; James Bond's toys are unimpressive and mechanical moments are forgettable
low confidence · Kaneda's subjective design critique
Eric Miner was 'handed Godfather' and the creative decision to include Jersey Jack employees in the game demonstrates poor judgment
medium confidence · Kaneda attributing this decision to Miner and Keith P. Johnson as co-creative leads
Keith Elwin's upcoming Jaws game will sell out instantly without needing to show the final product
low confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on Elwin's market track record
Jersey Jack Pinball produces only one game every 18 months, creating long gaps between designer releases

Notable Quotes

“Is Keith Elwin enough to carry this entire industry? He really is the guy that has the industry on his back. He is like Atlas Shrugged with a big pinball on his back.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Core thesis: Elwin's outsized importance to industry health and market viability
“The gap between Keith Elwin and everybody else is such a large gap that it almost has created in the entire hobby a feeling that like you might as well just wait to see what Keith Elwin does.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Market behavior driven by designer perception gap; FOMO consolidation around single designer
“Nobody else in pinball, nobody, not George Gomez, not John Borg, not Brian Eddy, not anyone else...nobody else in pinball can justify these prices.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Direct challenge to pricing models and designer credibility across industry
“If we really are only seeing mechanical wow from one designer...it wouldn't be nearly as exciting without Keith Elwin.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Assessment of industry innovation and Elwin's critical role in perception
“You don't do that. Like you can't make a Top Gun game and have employees as like pilots in the game. You can't do it.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~early-mid-episode — Critique of Godfather creative decision; broader comment on immersion and theme authenticity
“If you waited, you could get Scooby-Doo for $2,000 less. If you waited, you could get The Godfather for $2,000 to $3,000 off.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~late-episode — Evidence of secondary market collapse; buyer regret and FOMO evaporation
“It's like putting chum in the water. There is going to be a feeding frenzy of a great white shark that's going to attack everybody else's pinball plans in early 2024.”
Chris Kaneda @ ~late-episode — Prediction of market disruption when Elwin's game launches; competitive threat to other manufacturers

Entities

Keith ElwinpersonChris KanedapersonJohn Borgperson Eric Minerperson George Gomezperson Jack Dangerperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda second-guesses John Borg as second-best designer and openly expresses lack of genuine excitement for most contemporary designers beyond Elwin
high · Am I really waking up and being like, I can't wait to see what's next from John Borg? And the answer is not really.
?
design_innovation: No meaningful mechanical innovation or 'wow moment' toys identified in any major release since Godzilla (~2021-2022)
medium · If we look at every single game that came out in 2023, there is not one single mechanism in all of pinball that really blew us away...Since Godzilla, has anybody on a design front designed a mechanism in pinball that has blown you away?
?
product_concern: Premium pricing ($12,000-$15,000) for non-Elwin designer games perceived as unjustifiable; games lack mechanical or thematic innovations to support price point
high · Venom...just saying that, looking at Venom and then actually going up to someone and saying, hey, the LE costs $13,000. Get the F out of here...It's not gonna work.
$
market_signal: Dramatic secondary market price corrections observed for major 2023 releases; FOMO buyers facing significant losses; Guns N' Roses LE essentially unsellable
high · Scooby-Doo for $2,000 less...Godfather for $2,000 to $3,000 off...Toy Story 4 for like $4,000 off now...Guns N' Roses LEs now, you can't even give away a Guns N' Roses LE right now.
?
personnel_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball has hired Stern's head of mechanical engineering, potentially signaling JJP's need to improve mechanical design capabilities

Topics

Designer ranking and competitive assessmentprimaryMechanical innovation stagnation in pinballprimaryPrice justification and market valuation crisisprimaryKeith Elwin's outsized industry importanceprimarySecondary market pricing collapsesecondaryGodfather creative decision criticismsecondaryJersey Jack Pinball's mechanical engineering hire from SternsecondaryProduction capacity and release cadence constraintsmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses deep frustration with industry stagnation, mechanical innovation drought, pricing disconnects, and market dynamics. While he acknowledges Keith Elwin's excellence, the overarching tone is pessimistic about the rest of the industry's ability to justify premium pricing or deliver meaningful mechanical advancement. Optimism reserved only for Keith Elwin releases and Jack Danger's potential.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.047

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Happy September, everybody. Welcome to a new month and new shows. Okay, so on this episode, I want to do something. I want to say, am I second guessing who I think should be the second most highly anticipated pinball designer out there? On my last episode, out of the 22 designers, I said John Borg is the one that I think is second place after Keith Elwin on who we should be most excited about to see what they have cooking up next. Now, look, I've spent the last 24 hours thinking about that decision. And I just want to talk about it. I didn't really go into all the other designers out there that some of you might be more excited to see what they have cooking up next. Now, before I do that, I want to do a real quick thing. First, I want to say thank you, everybody, for sticking around. It's a new month. Some of you, that $5 burns too much of a hole in the pocket. And every month, we lose like 20 people, and then they come right back. But I want to give a shout-out to Ryan W., who asked me to say the following thing. He said, hey, Chris, would you mention this pinball show tournament on your show? It's located in Ann Arbor, Michigan. 500 games set to free play. The show is Saturday, September 30th with an IFPA tournament the following day, October 1st. Alright, so there you go. If you're around the Ann Arbor, Michigan area at the end of September, check out this pinball show. Thank you, Ryan W. I want to give a shout out to Stefan. Him and his dad acquired a neon sign from an arcade he used to go to in Italy when he was a child. And the arcade has since closed down and he found this sign. And this greedy guy wanted 2,000 euros for it and he finally was able to get it for 500 euros. Congratulations, Stefan. You see, it just goes to show you that the greedy bastards are not just in pinball. They're all over the place. Once this guy heard that this was a childhood sign that meant a lot, the guy puts a $2,000 price tag on it. It's sort of like Stern Pinball charging $2,000 for flat plastic toppers. All right, so let's talk about pinball and second guessing who I think is the second best designer in all of pinball. Now, look, John Borg is a great designer. He has definitely made some, I don't know, questionable or mediocre themes recently, but they're not that mediocre. I mean, Rush did win pinball game of the year. A lot of people would argue the reason why Rush did win, it wasn't really going up against anything else we were really excited about. And the more I thought about this, I heard some of your feedback. Some of you said, hey, John Borg just keeps recycling the same ideas. It's a little cookie cutter. He's not really pushing the envelope in pinball. I could see that. You know, I didn't mention people like Eric Minier. Let's talk about Eric for a minute. You know, after Pirates of the Caribbean and after Guns N' Roses, I always did believe in Eric Minier. and I thought he would always come out with games that would really push the envelope of creativity, push the envelope of theme integration. And I feel a little bit bad because Godfather's not his fault. He was handed Godfather by Jack Glenari. You know, it's hard to even look at Godfather and say he did the best he could with this game. The thing about Godfather that still stands out to me, and this had to be a creative decision by Eric Minier and Keith P. Johnson, The moment they decided to put employees from Jersey Jack Pinball into the game showed me that they don't really get it. You don't do that. Like you can't make a Top Gun game and have Jack Guarnieri and Ken Cromwell as like pilots in the game. You can't do it. You can have Christopher Franchi be like a general on the aircraft carrier You fly by and Christopher Franchi coffee spills in his face So what made them think that they could take this iconic movie and put employees into the game And that was a creative decision. And once I start to see stuff like that, I kind of get a little nervous that the judgment made by the designer isn't a good decision. Like someone should have overruled that. And yes, I am very excited to see what Eric Meunier does next. But the big issue is this. How far away are we from Eric Minier's next game? It's probably like three years from now. You know, Mr. Satan's game is coming out and Mr. Richie's game is coming out. So there are two designers in front of Eric Minier now over at Jersey Jack Pinball. And Jersey Jack Pinball only makes like one game every 18 months. It's really hard to get excited about something that is so far away. Same thing with my friend over at Dutch Pinball. Barry over at Dutch Pinball has made arguably one of the coolest games in the Big Lebowski 10 years ago. 10 years ago. We know that their next game that they're super excited about probably is not even going to be revealed until maybe the end of 2024. So that is like walking up to a beautiful woman who says she's going to sleep with you a year from now. So yeah, as I'm doing a show in August of freaking 2023, and I'm trying to figure out who's the second best designer in pinball we should be excited about after Keith Elwin, it's really hard to get excited about something that is so far away. You know, and with 22 designers in this pinball hobby, you would think there would be more people, though, that would get us more giddy and more excited. Some of you mentioned George Gomez. And without a doubt, George Gomez is a great designer. The one thing with George Gomez games, and everybody knows this, they're a little bit clunky. James Bond is clunky. There are a lot of shots in that game that are super clunky. They're super tight. I wouldn't say James Bond is a game with great flow. It's not a game with great flow. What I like about Gomez is he at least tries to put mechanisms and toys into the game. But is anyone out there, think about it, are any of you really impressed by the toys in James Bond? I'm not. None of those toys are really wow moments in pinball. That missile in the game isn't very impressive. when it comes to mechs and toys, right? If we look at every single game that came out in 2023, there is not one single mechanism in all of pinball that really blew us away. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the reason why if I'm honest with you, and I mean it when I say it, if I'm really honest with you, I'm really not that excited about most of what's happening in pinball right now. And that is one of the main reasons is when I look down at a game and I look at all the years and all the money and all the effort that goes into these machines. And I look at how much money these games are right now. There's no avoiding it, right? How much money they are. I'm not going to harp on the price, but for this much money, shouldn't we look down at these modern games that are costing more than pinball has ever cost it? And shouldn't we see a mechanism in a game, in every single game, that does something amazingly well, that creates a moment of magic, that creates a wow moment where you say, oh my gosh, did you see what that mechanism can do? We saw a lot of cool stuff in Godzilla. But since Godzilla, has anybody on a design front designed a mechanism in pinball that has blown you away? And that's my point is Godzilla was like two years ago. We've got two years of pinball. We've got the highest prices pinball has ever been. We've got all of these machines coming out and we're out of ideas on how to put toys into a game. Is there a single toy in The Godfather that's impressive? No. Is there a single toy designed in Galactic Tank Force that's impressive? No. Is there a single toy in Foo Fighters that blew you away No Is there a single toy in Pulp Fiction that blew you away No Is there a single toy in Venom that making you say oh my gosh how did they do that No there not Nowhere So is it only Keith Elwin? Is he the only guy that can actually put mechanical magic into the game? And we just saw the other day that Jersey Jack Pinball hired Stern's head of mechanical engineering. And I'm just going to say this, people. Stern doesn't lose anybody that they want to keep. All right. Let me repeat that. Nobody leaves Stern that Stern wants to keep. And think about it like this. Leaving Stern has never been a good move for anybody. Think about it. All I know is people trying to get back into Stern. Like Christopher Franchi would do anything to get back at Stern. You think he wants to be making these games for AP and JJP? No, he would love to be back at Stern in a heartbeat. Stern is where you want to end up because they have the most games, they have the best themes, they have the most talent, but even so, even the mighty Stern at these prices and all these designers, George Gomez, John Borg, we've got Jack Danger, we've got Keith Elwin, we've got Brian Eddy, even with all of that collective might, we really are only seeing mechanical wow from one designer. As I think about it, the gap between Keith Elwin and everybody else is such a large gap that it almost has created in the entire hobby a feeling that like you might as well just wait to see what Keith Elwin does. The only game you really need to have FOMO around is a Keith Elwin game. Everyone else's product, everybody else's games are games you can wait and see on. And it creates an interesting discussion. Is Keith Elwin enough to carry this entire industry? He really is the guy that has the industry on his back. He is like Atlas Shrugged with a big pinball on his back. And without him, think about it, without Keith Elwin, what would modern pinball be like right now? It wouldn't be nearly as exciting. And what's great about having someone like Keith Elwin and seeing what he does with pinball is I think he's the only designer going right now. And I mean it when I say this. This is a very important fact. He is the only designer going right now that can justify these prices. Nobody else in pinball, nobody, not George Gomez, not John Borg, not Brian Eddy, not Luke and Bug, not Eric Minior, nobody else in pinball. When you look at what they're putting out over the last few years, nobody else in pinball can justify these prices. And that is why everyone who thinks like, oh, scalping is dead, flipping is dead. It's dead on every single game that's not a Keith Elwin machine. When Keith Elwin Jaws gets announced, and I know there's pin side threads where people are debating about the popularity of Jaws. Trust me, when Jaws comes out, it is already sold out. Keith Elwin is the only designer that will sell out without even having to show you a game. And he's earned it. And nobody has any doubt that Keith Elwin is going to hit it out of the park. It's the same way Lyman Sheets was in pinball. Whenever we knew Lyman was coding a game, we knew it was going to be great. There were no question marks. There were no doubt. It might take a while to get there with Lyman code. But when it got there, it was better than everything else in pinball. And so that is why I wanted to do this quick follow-up show because I really had a lot of things going on inside my head when I was thinking about it. I'm like, am I really, Chris? Am I really waking up and being like, I can't wait to see what's next from John Borg? And the answer is not really. But I think out of all those other 21 designers who are not named Keith Elwin, I think he's the second best designer. But the more I think about it, the gap between Keith Elwin and him and everybody else, it's a country mile. And I still think this hobby needs new talent. I'm super excited to see what's next from Jack Danger. I really am. I think Jack has such potential So I think Jack going to learn from someone like Keith Owen Do you feel like Brian Eddy wants to learn from Keith Elwin I not sure Like look at Venom It just another boring fan layout Like, there's no way to hide it. It's a boring fan layout. It's like just cookie cutter over and over again. But I do feel like Jack is going to be the Padawan to the master of pinball, who is Keith Elwin. I really do feel that vibe between those two. And Borg's been around a while. Like, I don't know. Like, I don't know if Elwin's going to rub off on him. Everyone's got their own style. But everybody, as we head into the fall of 2023, it's going to be very interesting what happens between now and the end of the year. I think the demand for all the games that came out this year has dried up. And so now you've got all of these companies that need to keep the pinball manufacturing line going. And what are they going to do? The pressure is on, people. The pressure is on. It's going to be exciting to watch. And I don't know about you, but I think it's fun to talk about this stuff. I think it's fun to do a podcast about this stuff. It's fun seeing people do Facebook Lives and talk about this stuff because as a spectator, it doesn't cost us anything. And we can just keep being better friends and having offline conversations and we can talk about what's going to happen because all of the pressure in this hobby now, it's on the backs of distributors and it's on the backs of the manufacturers. And everybody's realizing this. If you waited, you could get Scooby-Doo for $2,000 less money. If you waited, you could get The Godfather for $2,000 to $3,000 off. If you waited, you could get Toy Story 4 for like $4,000 off now. I mean, Guns N' Roses, LEs now, you can't even give away a Guns N' Roses LE right now. And I know there's a balance in life for how much do I live for today and how much do I live for tomorrow. And nobody has guaranteed time in life. And I get it. Like if you have means and you don't care and you just want to play everything new, of course you're going to go buy it. Like you're not going to listen to me. But for everybody else, for the 95% of people out there, I think now is a time to just wait. When Keith Elwin's game comes out, you better be on a list to get it. The L.E.'s are going to sell out instantly. I think there's going to be an S.L.E. of the game. I think we're going to see a feeding frenzy. It's like putting chum in the water. There is going to be a feeding frenzy of a great white shark that's going to attack everybody else's pinball plans in early 2024. I'm excited for it because as I said, I think this is the only time where we're gonna see a game that justifies the prices. Everybody, let me know how you feel about this. Is Keith Elwin the only designer that can justify the prices? Like, do you think Godfather, $15,000, $12,000? Do you see it? Do you think Pat Lawler could get 15,000 for Toy Story? Do you think Venom LE is worth $13,000? I mean, just saying that, looking at Venom and then actually going up to someone and saying, hey, the LE costs $13,000. Get the F out of here. And then they're gonna charge us $2,000 for a topper. So $15,000 for a venom, a freaking venom. It's not gonna work. It's not working. Everybody, thank you so much for the support. We'll be back real soon. You get in a lot of shows. This show's not gonna end. And I will be back on Facebook one day. I'm really enjoying the break. I'm having a great time with my family and friends. And yes, I do have friends. said yes i do enjoy spending time with my family versus arguing with people on facebook it's a waste of time canada will be back no one's ever going to be able to fill my time slot with the show as good as canada's pinball podcast you know this everybody will talk to you soon later i'm ready to play today Put me in code I'm ready to play Today Look at me Gotta be San Diego Yeah