claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.042
Post-Beach recap: D&D fixed, Stern pipeline confirmed, Harry Potter imminent at JJP, Evil Dead dominates, Franchi to Spooky
D&D LE production restarting after dragon wire/voltage spike issue resolved via length adapter
high confidence · Don speaking from direct observer accounts at Pinball at the Beach; described technical fix in detail
King Kong from Keith Elwin expected May 2025 from Stern
medium confidence · Rumor consensus at Pinball at the Beach per attendees, competitors, and distributors
Prequel trilogy Star Wars game rumored as third Stern cornerstone for November 2025 release
medium confidence · Recurring rumor at show; John Borg rumored as designer
Ghostbusters remaster (Premium/LE only) expected Q4 2025 with possible flipper gap redesign
medium confidence · Consensus among collectors, competitors, and distributors at Pinball at the Beach
Jersey Jack Harry Potter game launching at Texas Pinball Festival (approx 5 weeks out) with LE+CE tiers at $12-15k pricing
high confidence · Eric Menear openly wearing Harry Potter merchandise at event; Don heard confirmation of TPF timing and pricing
Spooky Evil Dead at 820 units sold with 130 remaining as of Pinball at the Beach
high confidence · Don reporting from event observation; 4 CE units on display, all sold during show
Christopher Franchi hired exclusively as Spooky Pinball artist; Beetlejuice in development
medium confidence · Don observed Franchi at Spooky booth wearing Beetlejuice shirt; rumor based on prior art package and translites
Toy Story 4 LE price dropped to $10,000 MSRP
high confidence · Don confirms pricing adjustment at Pinball at the Beach show
Walking Dead game rumored but not 2025 release; likely held in reserve for sales gaps
medium confidence · Rumor dropped by Naps Arcade during event; Don speculating on strategic timing
“The wire that goes from the motor that articulates the dragon's head to the left and rightward axis was just long enough to make it to node board 10. But when it was getting tugged on, every time the dragon would move around, it would stretch that internal cable, sending intermittent voltage spikes to the board that it couldn't handle.”
Don @ ~5:30 — Technical explanation of D&D dragon failure root cause; confirms hardware fix deployed
“It seems like this will be premiums and LEs only. They won't be going back to that pro play field. I love that because I love the premium because the simple fact of that subway ramp that dives under the play field and then pops back up again.”
Don @ ~32:00 — Ghostbusters remaster strategic positioning; Pro tier exclusion signals market segmentation shift
“Harry Potter, open secret. At this point, I don't think anybody's really trying to keep it under wraps, including Eric himself, who was resplendently dressed in a Harry Potter sweatshirt and a Harry Potter hat throughout the entirety of Pinball on the Beach.”
Don @ ~40:00 — Confirmation of Harry Potter via designer's public signaling; validates leak credibility
“Game of the Show was from the other of the big three manufacturers... Spooky Pinball, makers of Evil Dead... Four evil beds were in attendance at pinball at the beach... and then all four of them had sold.”
Don @ ~48:00 — Evil Dead market dominance at event; rapid sell-through demonstrates unprecedented demand tier
“only 130 of these left so at this point your numbers way out unless you're getting in with a distributor... I don't know if they're all spoken for yet... it seems to be a game where the edition size is perfect where I think demand is going to outstrip that”
Don @ ~52:00 — Evil Dead scarcity narrative and supply constraint; contrasts with oversupply dynamics of other 2025 releases
“Christopher Franchi has signed on to art exclusively... because he came to Spooky because he had a lot of ideas of games that he wants to do”
Don @ ~58:00 — Talent movement: Franchi departure from Stern to Spooky; exclusive artist arrangement unprecedented in recent industry
sentiment_shift: Code designer identity now material to purchasing decisions; community members explicitly citing code quality as factor in game valuations (John Wick, X-Men depreciation linked to code implementation)
medium · Don articulating hierarchy of preferred coders (Gieske > Sullivan > others); expressing frustration with Tim Sexton's leveling system; noting code quality impact on resale interest
design_philosophy: Ghostbusters remaster rumored to include flipper gap closure and playfield geometry adjustments while preserving original art aesthetic; Premium/LE tier-only production signals Pro model discontinuation for reissues
medium · Don discussing design priorities and community preferences at show; noting flipper gap as key design critique; referencing Premium tier's subway ramp appeal
event_signal: Pinball at the Beach 2025 positioned as community hangout rather than formal trade show; manufacturers present in accessible, non-booth format enabling casual interaction and rumor-sharing
high · Don's description of venue layout, Gomez playing in four-person battles, Eddy signing autographs on-demand, Franchi parked at booth socializing
licensing_signal: Jersey Jack Harry Potter rumored at $5M licensing cost; pricing held flat at $12-15k MSRP suggesting margin compression; concurrent retail+location strategy indicates high confidence in IP conversion
medium · Don citing early $25k rumors now debunked; referencing $5M licensing cost; discussing location availability at launch
market_signal: Evil Dead experiencing unprecedented demand with 4 CE units sold during Pinball at the Beach event; 130 units remaining with expectation of sell-out at/before Texas Pinball Festival; secondary market showing minimal supply at asking prices
groq_whisper · $0.154
Avatar CE expected week of Feb 21-24, 2025 (coinciding with D&D LE availability)
high confidence · Direct intel from Jersey Jack contacts at Pinball at the Beach
“I'm hoping for some Elizabeth Gieske action. I think she's the special sauce in all of this... If it's Dwight Sullivan, I'm down. If it's Elizabeth Gieske, I'm double down.”
Don @ ~28:00 — Community perception of code designer quality hierarchy; indicates coder identity now influences purchasing decisions
“Tim Sexton, buddy, dude, my homie, come on, man... have it not be consequential in any manner. I just don't know how you come back from that without coming up with a reason for it.”
Don @ ~30:00 — Public critique of John Wick/X-Men code implementation; community-facing accountability demand from designer
“I'm pegging 12.5 I think I'd be happy with for my avatar CE... Avatar, I don't think, has sold very well. and so i don't think there's going to be this abundance of supply”
Don @ ~37:00 — Secondary market valuation estimate; Avatar underselling despite strong mechanics
“My Little Pony is the big one that we're trying to manifest I don't reasonably expect anybody to ever do that but if they do, I'll go on record right now I'll buy the damn thing”
Don @ ~56:00 — Humorous but reveals community IP wish-listing; demonstrates licensing gap in attractive femme-skewing themes
high · Don confirming all 4 display units sold; tracking 130 remaining; observing single secondary listing; noting 8-month distributor wait
personnel_signal: Christopher Franchi hired exclusively as artist for Spooky Pinball; represents talent migration from Stern to boutique manufacturer; Franchi had prior Beetlejuice art package rejected by Stern
high · Franchi present at Spooky booth during event wearing Beetlejuice merchandise; Don citing prior art package and translite sales; exclusive hiring arrangement
market_signal: Toy Story 4 LE price reduced to $10,000 MSRP at event; secondary market showing CE variants markedly below MSRP; inventory management strategy evident
high · Don confirming price drop at Pinball at the Beach; discussing secondary market pricing discovery
announcement: Jersey Jack Harry Potter confirmed for Texas Pinball Festival (approx 5 weeks from event date); LE+CE tiers at $12-15k MSRP; Eric Menear designed with $5M licensing investment
high · Menear's public Harry Potter merchandise at event; Don's direct TPF launch confirmation; pricing statements
product_strategy: Spooky Evil Dead achieving market differentiation through motorized topper quality and exclusive edition size (950 units total); revised hair-guard mechanism addressing early user issues suggests post-launch refinement capability
high · Don discussing topper quality as key differentiator; confirming 820 sold with 130 remaining; noting Spooky's hair-jam fix and plexiglass partition addition
product_concern: D&D dragon mechanism suffered voltage spike failures due to internal cable stretching; fix deployed via length adapter before LE production restart
high · Direct technical explanation from Don citing Pinball at the Beach observer accounts and Stern's solution deployment
rumor_hype: King Kong (Keith Elwin) expected May 2025; prequel Star Wars trilogy expected November 2025 with John Borg as designer; Ghostbusters remaster (Q4 2025, Premium/LE only) with flipper gap redesign
medium · Consensus among attendees, competitors, and distributors at Pinball at the Beach per Don's interviews
business_signal: Stern appears to be strategically managing 2025 cornerstones (D&D, King Kong, Star Wars) with Q4 Ghostbusters remaster held in reserve; potentially using Walking Dead as gap-filler for sales shortfalls
medium · Don's speculation on Stern holding Walking Dead in pocket; reference to Naps Arcade rumor; discussion of Stern keeping 3 cornerstones + remaster + studio projects per year